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An Analysis of

the GPU Market

Jon Peddie Research

4 Saint Gabrielle Court

Tiburon, CA 94920

415.435.9368


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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Page 2 of15Copyright 2011 Jon Peddie Research

An Analysis of the GPU MarketThe discrete GPU is alive and thriving

Computer graphics is hard work. Behind the images you see in games and movies, or whileediting photos or video, some serious processing is taking place. All the processing power youcan muster is needed to push and polish pixels. And this task is only going to get moredemanding as these applications get more sophisticated.

Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), which do the heavy lifting in computer graphics, rangegreatly in size, price and performance. They span from tiny cores inside an ARM processor (suchasNvidias Tegra or Qualcomms Snapdragon), to graphics integrated within an X86 processor(such as AMDs Fusion, Intels Sandy Bridge), to a standalone discrete device, or dGPU (such as

AMDs Radeon, orNvidias GeForce).

Graphics is the poster child of parallel problems, so its not surprising that GPUs are parallelprocessors providing super high performance. They are comprised of a matrix of specialized 32-bit floating point processors, with as few as four cores (also called shader processing units) to asmany as 1,600 cores. The more cores, the higher the performance. And there is effectively nolimit to the number of cores they can containother than the constraints of state-of-the-art ofprocess technology, as well as chip size and the power required to drive the chip.

Although the popular press and some analysts would like to believe otherwise, theres a simpletruth in the business: You cant get the same level of performance from integrated graphics asyou can from a dGPU. Its a matter ofbasic physics.

Given that all processors use basically the same size transistors, the how big is the chip? Statedanother way, how many transistors does it have? Second, how many of those transistors can be,or are, dedicated to graphics? And finally, how do you cool such a device?

To give some sense of the range of transistors in processors, consider this: Nvidias Tegra 2 chiphas 260 million transistors. Qualcomms Snapdragon has 200 million to 300 million transistors.AMDs Llano 4C has 1.45 billion transistors. Intels Sandy Bridge has 995 million transistors.AMDs latest Radeon has 2.64 billion. And Nvidias GeForce has 3 billion transistors.

Now consider how many transistors are used just for graphics in these various processors.


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Figure 1: Transistors used in graphics

Obviously you cant get the same level of performance out of 26 million graphics transistors asyou can from 3 billion.

And you cant take the power consumption and subsequent heat generation of a 290 milliontransistor, 250-watt CPU like Sandy Bridge and integrate another 250-watt 3 billion GeForce orsimilar GPUunless you cryogenically cooled it. If you tried to put those two giant chips tighterthat would be a blivet10 pounds of stuff in a five pound bag.

So how could a Fusion or Sandy Bridge CPU even come close to the performance of a dGPU?

Embedded graphicsWith the recent advent of AMDs Fusion and Intels Sandy Bridge, a new level of excitementarose over the unrelenting march of Moores Law and the integration of more functionality intothe CPU.

Integration had actually started back in 1989, when Intel integrated the 80387 floating pointprocessor into the CPU, with its introduction of the 80486. Over the years, other functions wereintegrated into the CPU, most recently that of the GPUs. But integrating small GPUs with an x86CPU isnt really very different than integrating it with a north-bridge memory controller, knownas an IGP-integrated graphics processor.

Intels processors with graphics are known as embedded processor graphics, or EPGs. AMDsprocessors with embedded graphics are known as heterogeneous processor units, or HPUs(although AMD markets them as accelerated processing units, or APUs). The integrated graphics(IGP) market is being replaced by EPG and HPU devices, which is natural.But the key pointhere is that this does not have any significant impact on dGPUs. Take a look at Figure 2.

Snapdragon Tegra2 SNB Llano 4C Cayman Fermi

Est Graphics transistors 38 26 249 290 2640 3000

Non Gfx Transistors 213 234 746 1160 0 0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Transistors (M)


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Figure 2: Embedded processor graphics replace IGPs

The integrated graphics chips appeal to inexpensive segments of the PC market, namely

corporate PCs and very low-end consumer machines. Buyers in these categories are attracted bylow cost, rather than graphics capability. Thus, entry-level machines use IGP. Embeddedgraphics processors are simply replacing integrated chipsets, and not having any impact on add-in graphics boards (AIBs), which are growing nicely.

Consumers who care about graphics have, and continue to, buy dGPU systems. We will look alittle closer at who those consumers are.

Consumer and commercial

The PC industry is split into many categories: desktop and notebook, consumer and commercial.Commercial PCs are used in companies, from small- to medium-size businesses (SMB) to giant

corporations (enterprises), as well as government and education.

In the beginning the commercial segment got the PC market going, however, in the last ten yearsthe consumer segment has overtaken it and become the driving force.


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Figure 3: Consumer vs. Commercial PC sales.

Although all segments use dGPUs, the consumer and SMB segments use more of them. SeeFigure 4.


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Figure 4: The Consumer and SMB PCs use most of the discrete GPUs

Looking at just the consumer and SMB PC segments (desktop and notebook), you can see wheredGPUs are being used. These are new systems and the chart does not include after-market salesof add-in boards (AIBs).


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Figure 5: Discrete GPU utilization in consumer & SMB PCs

The data seem counter-intuitive because everyone knows that more integrated chips ship than

discrete. While thats correct, a very large proportion of them, upwards of 50%, are not used, orare in servers, or non-PC systems like POS, ATMs, and CE devices. However, every dGPU inevery PC is used.

Expressed another way, you can see in Figure 6 the relative stability and growth of dGPUs tointegrated graphics


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Figure 6: Market share increases for discrete GPUs in Consumer PCs

Although enterprise systems tend to use integrated graphics more than consumer and SMBsystems do, that segment (which includes professional graphics), still uses a significant numberof discrete GPUs.


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Figure 7: Discrete GPU utilization in Commercial PCs

As good as integrated graphics are, and they can be very good, they cant match dGPUs rawperformance for the reasons mentioned earlier.

But are integrated graphics good enough?

Good enough?

Are integrated graphics good enough to run graphics-based applications? The simple answer is,yes, at least for specialized cases. That, unfortunately, causes people to leap to the conclusionthat integrated graphics will surpass and replace discrete graphics as part of the natural evolutionof Moores Law. This is plain wrong. There are applications that integrated parts simply cantrun. Consider game for example.


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Figure 8: An IGP cant run a Dx11 FPS game (Source: Nvidia)

There are two important reasons why integrated graphics wont replace discrete graphics:

1. There isnt enough pixel power for graphics-intensive applications, like photo and videoediting, games, and professional graphics like CAD and digital content creation.

2. Software doesnt stand still.Using PC games or CAD rendering as examples, you can demonstrate that todays state-of-theart integrated graphics can run applications based on DirectX 10 (from 2006) or OpenGL 2.0(from 2004). For users who dont update to the latest version of software, or dont run state of

the art software, an IGP-related system, or one with an older discrete GPU will do just fine.

But even a $99 AIB will out-perform an integrated graphics processor.

The facts speak for themselves. Those who are concerned about graphics performance will buydiscrete GPU systems.

So many segments

In addition to consumer, SMB and enterprise segments, there are desktop and notebooksegments. And within these are even more segments. Desktop, for example, have four sub-


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segments: mainstream, performance, enthusiast, and workstation. Notebook has three or foursub-segments: workstation; enthusiast and/or performance; mainstream; and thin and light and/ornetbook. In addition to the desktop and notebook platforms there are servers, which useintegrated graphics.

The type of graphics processors found in all these segments is shown in the following table(Figure 9). Among the three leading suppliers of graphics parts, AMD, Intel, and Nvidia, not allparticipate in all segments.

Looking at the market opportunities for the three companies, on the basis of where theyparticipate, you get the following view.

Figure 9: Market segments and supplier participation

For example, Intel does not participate in discrete graphics segments, Nvidia has neverparticipated in the low-end, or netbook, market and AMD offers parts for all the segments. Thediversity and range of products however may put a strain on the companys resources and its

ability to invest in R&D.

With so many segments, its easy to get confused about how one technology relates to another.And in the case of those segments where integrated and discrete GPUs are found, there is evenmore potential for confusion. For example, when a dGPU is in a mainstream desktop systemwith an integrated GPU, the integrated unit is basically put to sleep. However, in a notebookmainstream PC, either GPU may be used, depending on the work load and/or whether thenotebook is plugged into the wall power socket.

commercial Graphics AMD Intel Nvidia

Desktop

Workstation dGPU Y Y

Performance dGPU Y Y

Mainstream Int Y Y

Value Int Y Y

Notebook

Workstation dGPU Y Y

Mainstream dGPU/Int Y Y Y

Thin & Light netbook Int Y Y

consumer Graphics AMD Intel Nvidia

Desktop

Enthusiast dGPU Y Y

Performance dGPU Y Y


Value Int Y Y

Notebook

Performance/Enthusiast dGPU Y Y


Thin & Light netbook Int Y Y


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Intel increases its integrated graphics capabilities chiefly through process technologyadvancements. Since they are usually half a node to a node ahead of other semiconductor fabs,they get some advantage from it. This makes for more compelling graphics for the low end ofthe market (entry consumer systems and corporate machines). But it isnt enough to competewith the architectural advantages and sheer number of transistors for independent GPUs. Given

the development of new process nodes (going from 32nm to 28nm for example) it will take abouteight years for Intel to be able to put enough graphics transistors in a CPU to be equivalent totodays dGPUs.

Nvidia is the leader in discrete GPUs and feels no competition or attack from integrated parts,although there is a general misconception in the press and by some analysts that the integratedparts are somehow going to kill discretes. As Figure 5: Discrete GPU utilization in consumer &SMB PCs, page 7, shows, that is far from the truth.

GPU-compute

Although not included in the count of dGPUs, there are GPUs used in servers and workstations

that dont display data but are used strictly for computing data. These are called GPU-computeprocessors.

While the market is small, it is growing and will have a significant impact on suppliers ofdGPUs.

Figure 10: GPU-compute processors have the highest growth rate

Because volumes havent hit mass market levels, GPU suppliers are building GPU-computeAIBs and selling them as subsystems.


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Market value

Embedded graphics in CPUs have an effective value of zero (dollars). Neither AMD nor Intelmakes a comparable CPU without graphics to compare the value of graphics in them.

However, discrete GPUs have a value. And with the average selling prices of the various dGPUsand units shipped, we can calculate the market value

Figure 11: Market value for various dGPUs

Even as the recession hit in 2008, causing reduced spending, consumers split into two types:those who went for entry-level machines and those who went for better graphics performance.

Conclusion

As Samuel Clemens famously said, Reports of my death are highly exaggerated.

As good as they are, embedded graphics processors will never be a replacement for a powerfuldiscrete GPU. Discrete GPUs have, and will continue to hold, a multi-year lead over integratedgraphics, and software applications and operating systems arent standing still. Therefore, thenotion that the evolution of integration spells the end of discrete GPUs just isnt founded.


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Discrete GPUs will not only be with us for a long time. They will actually continue to gainmarket share amid mounting demand for graphics-based applications, from web viewing toediting video and photos to PC games.

This data came from Jon Peddie Research's quarterly AIB report.

Pricing and Availability

TheJon Peddie Research's AIB reportis available now in both electronic and hard copy editions, and canbe purchased for $995 each. Included with this report is an Excel workbook with the data used to createthe charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR'sAIB report is $3,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive TechWatch (the company's bi-weekly report), and are eligible for a 10% discount. Bundle packages are alsoavailable. For information about purchasing theAIB Report, please call 415/435-9368 or visit the JonPeddie Research website at www.jonpeddie.com.

About Jon Peddie Research

Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon PeddieResearch is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based inTiburon, California, JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technologycompanies in a variety of fields including graphics development, multimedia for professional applicationsand consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development.Jon Peddie'sAIB Report is a quarterly report focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for notebookand desktop computing.

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