peering into the trends of smart card ic usage
TRANSCRIPT
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Peering into the trends of Smart Card IC Usage
Prepared by:
Jafizwaty Ishahak
Associate Director, ICT Research Practice
1
Associate Director, ICT Research Practice
Frost & Sullivan, Asia Pacific
www.frost.com
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Agenda
Background & Technology RoadmapHistory
& Evolution
Key Market Drivers & RestraintsMarket
5
Key Market Drivers & RestraintsMarketDynamics
Form Factors
Smart phone/Mobile Devices
NFC
M2M
Key Take away
Trends &
Highlights
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Agenda
Background & Technology RoadmapHistory
& Evolution
Market
6
MarketDynamics
Trends &
Highlights
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Background & Technology Roadmap
MCU Memory
Contactless Contact Hybrid Combi
Smart Card Types
Smart Card Interfaces
Smart Cards
Multi
Application
* Multi
Application
Capability
STANDARDPLASTICCARDS
Various FormFactors
NFC
In the interim –stickers,
MicroSD
m2m
7
90s-2002 2006 2008/9
Contact
Hybrid (With Magstripe)
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
4K
Contactless
64K32K
Combi/dual interface
16K
256K
512K
APAC
Combi/dual interface
Application
CapabilityCapability
Single
Application
Factors
Contactless
Micro SIM
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eHealthcare
Home Automation
eID (Government ID, Smart Security)
Financial services
Myriad of Applications
8
eHealthcare
TransportationTelecommunication
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Agenda
Key Market Drivers & RestraintsMarket
9
Key Market Drivers & RestraintsMarketDynamics
Trends &
Highlights
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Market Dynamics
DR
IVE
RS
DR
IVE
RS HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
Government
ProjectsGrowth in
Broadband
Penetration
Transportation
& Urbanization Growth of
Smartphones
Smart Cards Industry: Market Drivers and Restraints (World), 2010-2015
10
DR
IVE
RS
DR
IVE
RS
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
LOW
Large Initial
Investment Outlays
Alternative Existing
Technologies
Smart Cards
Interoperability
RE
ST
RA
INT
SR
ES
TR
AIN
TS
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Security &
Privacy Concerns
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Global Passport and Split by TechnologyP
assp
ort
s (m
illio
n)
Global Passport Market, Number of Passports in Circulation by Technology (e-Passports and non e-Passports) (Global), 2005-2015
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Non e-Passports
e-Passports
11
Passp
ort
s (m
illio
n)
0.0
100.0
200.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
HandwrittenPassports
Machine ReadablePassports
(MRP)
Biometric PassportsOr
e-Passports
Machine PrintedPassports
Non Standardization Global Standardization
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Agenda
Market
12
MarketDynamics
Form Factors
Smartphone /Mobile devices
NFC
M2M
Key Take away
Trends &
Highlights
www.frost.com
Market Overview
13
Telecom and telecom-relatedapplications will continue toprovide an area for high growthwithin the smart card industry
Decreasing cost of manufacturingis a plus point contributing to smartcard expansion worldwide
In tandem with the growth inbroadband services, smartcards appeal is furtherincreased, especially inbanking and loyalty applicationtransactions
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Market Overview (Contd…)
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
Unit S
hip
ment
(Mill
ion)
Smart Cards Industry: Smart Card SIM Unit Shipment (World), 2008-2016
20.00%
28.70%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Penetr
ation r
ate
Smart Cards Industry: Internet Penetration Rate (World), 2001-2010
14
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unit S
hip
ment
Year
6.50%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Penetr
ation
Year
Internet Penetration Rate
Source: Frost & Sullivan
www.frost.com
APAC Total Mobile Device Sale Forecast
Mobile Device Market: Mobile Device Unit Sale Forecasts (Asia Pacific), 2007-2015
0.15
0.2
0.25
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Mo
bil
e D
evic
e S
ale
Gro
wth
Rate
To
tal
Mo
bil
e D
evic
e S
ale
s
(mil
lio
ns)
15
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
0
0.05
0.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mo
bil
e D
evic
e S
ale
Gro
wth
Rate
(%
)
To
tal
Mo
bil
e D
evic
e S
ale
s
(mil
lio
ns)
Total Mobile Device Sales (000s) Growth Rate (%)
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APAC Mobile Device Country Breakdown
Mobile Device Market: Handset Sales by Country (Asia Pacific) 2009 & 2015
Singapore
1%
Indonesia
Vietnam
2%
Philippines
2%
Thailand
2%Australia
2%
New Zealand
0%
China
Hong Kong
1%
Malaysia
1%
Taiw an
1%Taiw an
1%Malaysia
1%Hong Kong
0%
New Zealand
0%
Thailand
1%
Australia
1%
Philippines
2%
Vietnam
2%
South Korea
3%
Indonesia
Singapore
0%
2009 Market Size: 489 million units 2015 Market Size: 882 million units
16
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
RoR
9%
India
26%
South Korea
5%
Indonesia
4%China
37%
Japan
7%
India
31%
Japan
4%
China
41%
Indonesia
4%
RoR
9%
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Total Smart Cards Market : Common Smart Card Integrated Circuit Form Factors (Asia Pacific)
STANDARDPLASTICCARDS
MINICARDS
STANDARD FORM
WRISTBANDS WATCHES &Stickers
SIM CARDS
Form Factors
17
USB DEVICESALTERNATIVE FORM FACTORS
Source: Frost & Sullivan
PASSPORTS TOKENS
MOBILE DEVICES(NFC)
Embedded SIM
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Total Smart Cards Market : Common Smart Cards Integrated Circuit Form Factors Divided by Technology (Asia Pacific)
Contactless Smart Card Technology
PASSPORTS TOKENS MOBILE DEVICES
WRISTBANDS WATCHES& Stickers
Contact and Contactless SCIC Form Factors
18
USB DEVICESMINICARDS
Source: Frost & Sullivan
SIM CARDS
STANDARD PLASTIC CARDS
Contact and Contactless Smart Card Technology
Contact Smart Card Technology
www.frost.com
Contactless Smart Cards Market : Common Contactless Smart Cards Integrated Circuit Form Factors Divided by Technology and Application (Asia Pacific)
Contactless Smart PASSPORTS TOKENS MOBILE
DEVICESWRISTBANDS WATCHES &
Form Factors – By Technology & Application
Mass Transit Payment Access Control
19
USB DEVICESMINICARDS
Contactless Smart Card Technology
Source : Frost & Sullivan
DEVICES WATCHES &Stickers
STANDARD PLASTIC CARDS
Contact and Contactless Smart Card Technology
Government Identification
www.frost.com
SIM Cards Market: Comparison of Common Smart Cards Sizes to the 3FF SIM Cards (Asia Pacific)
SIM Sizes
20
• Standard Card Size 54 x 85.6 mm
• Mini Card 40 x 66 mm
• GSM SIM Card (2FF) 15 x 25 mm
• Mini-UICC (3FF) 12 x 15 mm
Source: Frost & Sullivan
www.frost.com
Automation
Smart MeteringHealthcare
Industry
Transportation
M2M Application Coverage
m2m
21
Safety & Emergency
Consumer & HomeRetail & Finance
Source: Frost & SullivanIndustries specifically covered in this research
www.frost.com
100
120
140
160
Retail & Finance
Consumer & Home
Security
M2M Global Market Highlights
Machine to Machine SIM Centric: Unit Forecasts (World), 2010-2015
SIM
centr
ic M
2M
devic
e (
Mill
ions o
f U
nits)
22
0
20
40
60
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Security
Transportation
Healthcare
Smart Meter
Building
Industry
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
SIM
centr
ic M
2M
devic
e (
Mill
ions o
f U
nits)
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NFC
Key Smart Card
Applications
Transportation-Mass Transit
-Public Parking
-Toll Collection
Access Control-Physical Access
-Logical Access
-Dual Access
Payment-Credit/Debit Cards
-Loyalty
-Prepaid Value
Government ID-National ID
-Social Security
-Health Cards
Multiapplication Smart Cards
Near Field Communication
23
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Market Analysis – NFC Market Position – Adoption
Adoption
As limited NFC handsets and usesare available, most NFC users at
Total volume of users
Source: Frost & Sullivan
24
Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Skeptics
2–3% of Mobile
Handset Users
11–16% of New Users
13 – 19% of Total Users
30 – 38 % of New Users
43 – 57% of Total Users
30 – 38% of New Users
73 – 95% of New Users
12 – 22 % of New Users
78 – 100 % of Total Users
Adoption mainly
by enthusiasts
and developers.
Adoption mainly driven by enthusiasts
and the technology savvy as well as
opportunists (be means of promotions
and marketing events).
Adoption driven mainly by
those who can directly
benefit from the technology
as it is increasingly available.
Adoption driven mainly by
lowered costs and
affordability as well as mass
deployment and acceptance.
Adoption mainly driven by a
case of need and necessity as
well as lack of choice (high
mobile handset infiltration rate).
Time
are available, most NFC users atthis point are software, hardware and
mobile handset developers and enthusiasts Volume of new users
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Market Analysis – NFC Market Position - Visibility
Visibility
• Introduced in 2002, NFC technology has since endured the ‘over expectations’ of the general public and in the last few years, a
sharp decline in interest. At this point however, NFC has moved into the ‘Growth Stage’ whereby expectations at this point are
relatively low and the first commercial rollouts have begun on a small scale.
•The current position of NFC technology is demonstrated in the chart below.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
25
Introduction Inflation of Hype Decline of Hype Growth Stage Plateau
Launch of a new product
/ technology, minimal
media interest.
Over enthusiasm and
unrealistic expectations
in general begin to grow.
Expectations are not met,
interest and expectations
slowly dissolve.
Product and services of
said technology catch up
with expectations.
General public is well informed of
the progress of technology and
services and products available.
Time
New interest in NFC. Beginning of the
growth stage of NFC products and services.
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Market Analysis – NFC Market Position - Revenue
Revenue
Temporary trials have taken
26
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Users /
Buyers
Few – Trial of Early
Adopters
Growth Adopters – Trial of
Product / Services
Growing selectivity of
purchases
Saturation of users, drop-off in usage.
Competitive
Conditions
Very Limited Entry of competitors fighting for
market share. Undifferentiated
products & services.
Likely price wars & product
differentiation to gain market
share.
Difficulty in market share growth or
maintenance. Emphasis on efficiency
and cost, exist of some competitors.
Time
Temporary trials have takenplace and are being
conducted, few commercialroll-outs have begun
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Market Movement – Projects in Asia Pacific – A Partial List
Shanghai
China
ChongQing
China
Shanghai
China
Taiwan
Seoul
South KoreaSeoul
South Korea
Bangalore
Taiwan
27
Melbourne
Australia
Melbourne
Australia
Xiamen
China
Taiwan
Jakarta
Indonesia
Kuala Lumpur
Malaysia
Taiwan
Singapore
SingaporeSingapore
Bangkok
Thailand
Bangalore
India
Bangkok
Thailand
The Philippines
Source: Frost & Sullivan
www.frost.com
NFC - Ecosystem
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Mo
bil
e H
an
dse
t U
nit
s (M
illi
on
)
Mobile Handset Units: Forecast (World), 2009-2015
NFC ecosystem
28
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Standard mobile phone 1152 1194 1180 1056 963 815 765
NFC-enabled mobile
phone7 39 128 315 536 748 863
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Mo
bil
e H
an
dse
t U
nit
s (
Source: Frost & Sullivan Source: Frost & Sullivan
www.frost.com
WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF NFC (~75% of Mobile Handsets NFC Enabled)
Trends – Evolution of NFC Applications
PC- Handset
Synchronization
Third Party Connection
Initiator
P2P Data Transfer Cyber Marketing
P2P Fund Transfer Entertainment
Growing Acceptance in
Commercial Payment
Collection
Loyalty Programs
Targeted Promotions Industrial Process
Industrial Data TransferStandardization C-B-C Payments Personalization of Services
29
Personal
Commercial
Adoption and Development
by hobbyists / enthusiasts
Logical Access Control
Synchronization
Mass Transit Ticketing
Electronic Toll Collection
Automated Fare Collection
Growing Acceptance in
Transportation
Targeted Promotions
Niche Advertising
Growing Retail AcceptanceIndustrial
Retail Franchise
Micro-Payments
Industrial Process
Monitoring
Source: Frost & Sullivan
www.frost.com
NFC Payment Services
NFC Payment: Transaction Value Estimation (World), 2009-2015
Tra
nsaction V
alu
e (
€B
illio
ns)
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
30
Source: Frost & Sullivan
World 1.48 2.22 3.84 12.94 31.35 61.21 111.19
EU 0.01 0.02 0.73 3.95 11.82 23.56 41.87
NA 0.01 0.02 0.37 2.00 7.50 13.20 25.19
ASPAC 1.29 1.48 1.77 5.54 10.25 22.26 39.33
Rest-of-World 0.17 0.70 0.97 1.45 1.78 2.20 4.81
Tra
nsaction V
alu
e (
0.00
20.00
40.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Key Take Away
Market & Market &
Continued Expansion of the Telecommunication Industry
Increased Emphasis on Security & Convenience in the Financial Services Industry
Smart Card IC Industry: Market & TechTrends Summary (World), 2010-2015
31
Market & Tech.
Trends
Market & Tech.
Trends
Demand from Government Agencies
Additional Smart Card Applications: M2M, Healthcare & Insurance, Smart Metering, Loyalty Tracking
Source: Frost & Sullivan
STANDARDPLASTICCARDS
Various Form factors
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Research Coverage & Calendar
32
www.frost.com
Research Scope: The new Smart Card Ecosystem
eHealthcar
Home Automatio
n
eID (Government ID, Smart Security)
Financial services
m2m
33
eHealthcare
Smartcard Readers
Network Operators
Transportation
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2011 Global Research Plan: Smart Cards
• Forecaster (ME)
• Personalization and certification where is the value added (MI)
• Financial (EMV, Contactless) (MI)
• Forecaster (ME)
• Personalization and certification where is the value added (MI)
• Financial (EMV, Contactless) (MI)
Q2
• eID route to success (MI)
• Africa & Sub Sahara (MI)
• SIM Verticals business opportunities (MI)
• eID route to success (MI)
• Africa & Sub Sahara (MI)
• SIM Verticals business opportunities (MI)
Q1
34
• Financial (EMV, Contactless) (MI)• Financial (EMV, Contactless) (MI)
• M2M where are we finally today ?(MI)
• SIM cards market in emerging countries (MI)
• World Corporate Security Smart Card Markets (MI)
• M2M where are we finally today ?(MI)
• SIM cards market in emerging countries (MI)
• World Corporate Security Smart Card Markets (MI)
Q4
• Qualitative Forecaster (ME)
• China / Asia opportunities (MI)
• Qualitative Forecaster (ME)
• China / Asia opportunities (MI)
Q3
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Frost & Sullivan –Identified Over 30 Mega Trends
What is a Mega Trend? • Mega trends are global, sustained and macro economic
forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.
• Mega trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies and individuals. Analysis of these mega trends and their implications forms an
Definition:Impact of Mega Trends on Key Organizational
Functions
Marketing
R&D Budget Innovation
Why Do Mega Trends Matter?
35
of these mega trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.
• The following document sets the stage for visionary thinking by identifying the most important global mega trends, potential scenarios of specific trends in 2020, and the implications of these mega trends in transforming society, markets and cultures. These mega trends can be used as a base for strategic decision-making by understanding their impact on organizational functions such as marketing, Research and Development (R&D) budget spending, product planning and development, human resource management, technology planning and innovation scouting.
Megatrends
R&D Budget Spending
Product Planning and Development
TechnologyPlanning
InnovationScouting
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Thank you – Your Growth Partner
Jean-Noël Georges
Global Program Director
ICT - Smart Card
Tel. +33 (0)4 93 00 61 87
Jafizwaty Ishahak
Associate Director
Asia Pacific, ICT Practise
Tel. +603 6204 5830
36
Damien See
Senior Industry Analyst
ICT - Smart Card
Tel. +603 6207 1018
www.frost.com
Donna JeremiahAssociate DirectorCorporate CommunicationsTel. (603) 6204 [email protected]
Carrie LowExecutiveCorporate CommunicationsTel. (603) 6204 [email protected]
Additional Information:
37
Jessie LohManagerCorporate CommunicationsTel. (65) 6890 [email protected]