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23

rd February 2017

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Fax No. : 91 -33-22436941 Email : [email protected]

Website : www.peerlessec.co.in

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Peerless Securities Ltd. Peerless Mansion, 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 69

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR MARCH 2017

Stock price in INR

COMPANY SECTOR CMP (INR) RATING

POTENTIAL

TARGET

POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

TORRENT PHARMA Pharmaceuticals 1297 BUY 1550 19.54%

KAJARIA CERAMICS Building Materials 565 ACCUMULATE 650 14.96%

ASIAN PAINTS Paints 1009 BUY 1200 18.93%

HINDUNILEVER Consumer Staples 858 ACCUMULATE 920 7.19% Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified We revise target of Asian Paints to INR 1200 from INR 1300 on the call initiated on 29 Sep 2016 after slower growth in near term post demonetization.

Market Outlook:

Indian equity market hit new 52 week high in the month of February on strong flows from domestic and

Foreign Portfolio investors (FPI). Benchmark Nifty rallied nearly 5 percent after the presentation of Union

Budget. Foreign Portfolio Investors bought INR 7311 crores of equities in the month of February(data

updated till 22 Feb 2017 including HDFC Bank purchase data on account of temporary RBI withdrawal of

restriction of FPI limit). We feel that market is overheated and risk-reward ratio is probably not favorable in

near term.

Market likely to be volatile in near term as valuation is stretched in near term. Outcome of the Assembly

Election results of some key states could determine the short term direction of the market. Movement of US

dollar could also have major implications on emerging markets performance including India. Strong US

dollar is hurting the fund flows into the emerging markets. US markets trades at fresh lifetime high on

expectations of tax reforms by new US administration. Strong dollar also supporting US market in short term.

Higher possibilities of rate hike by US Federal Reserve, uncertainty of Trump administration’s policy,

adverse currency movement could be key risks for global equities. We are positive in select private sector

banking, telecom, oil & gas, NBFC and select Pharma companies.

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UPDATE ON FEBRUARY 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK

CALL

INITATED AT

(INR) DATE

POTENTIAL

TARGET RATING

PRICE(23

FEB 2017) REMARKS

RBL BANK 390 03-Feb-17 440 ACCUMULATE 456.90

TARGET

ACHIEVED

BAJAJ CORP 373 03-Feb-17 415 ACCUMULATE 368.15 OPEN

SYNGENE 538 03-Feb-17 625 BUY 512.20 OPEN

JUBLFOOD 922 03-Feb-17 990 ACCUMULATE 1006.00 OPEN

Stock price in INR

• Jublfood’s target revised upward to INR 1000 on Jan 6, 2017 after good Q3 result.

Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in February 2017

OPEN: 8570 HIGH: 8982 CLOSE: 8941

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Global Economy Update:

1) Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, remains upbeat on economy, US Jobless claims near 43 –

year low : The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday in its first meeting

since President Donald Trump took office, but painted a relatively upbeat picture of the U.S.

economy that suggested it was on track to tighten monetary policy this year. The U.S. central

bank said job gains remained solid, inflation had increased and economic confidence was rising,

although it gave no firm signal on the timing of its next rate move. The Fed also highlighted that

the unemployment rate, currently at 4.7 percent, was still hovering near its recent low. Fed

policymakers are still awaiting clarity on the possible impact of Trump's economic policies.

2) German industry output posts steepest monthly fall since Jan 2009 : Weaker output in

manufacturing and construction drove the biggest monthly drop in German industrial production

in nearly eight years in December, dashing prospects for robust growth in the final quarter of

2016. Industrial output fell by 3.0 percent as compared to previous month. This was weaker than

any prediction in a Reuters poll and far below the consensus forecast for a rise of 0.3 percent. It

was the steepest drop since January 2009.

3) Japan logs biggest current account surplus since 2007 : Japan attained its second-

biggest current account surplus on record in 2016 as per the Ministry of Finance data. The 20.6

trillion yen ($183.63 billion) surplus reflected the trade balance swinging into surplus on cheaper

oil, rising foreign tourists arrivals creating a record travel surplus, and hefty foreign income from

overseas investments. For the whole of 2016, Japan posted a trade surplus of 6.8 trillion yen

($59.95 billion).

4) Fuel price surge sends UK inflation to highest since June 2014 : British consumer

prices rose last month at the fastest pace since June 2014 and are set to rise further, propelled

by higher global oil prices and the Brexit-fueled fall in the pound.Consumer prices increased by

1.8 percent compared with a year earlier, picking up from 1.6 percent in December, and prices

paid by factories jumped by more than 20 percent. The Bank of England expects inflation to

approach 2.7 percent by the end of the year while many economists say it will go above 3

percent, putting to the test the BoE's decision to keep interest rates at a fraction above zero.

`



Indian Economy Wrap: Key Statistics :

1) India's fuel demand fell 4.5 percent y/y in January : India's fuel demand fell 4.5 percent in January

compared with the same month last year. Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totalled

15.52 million tonnes, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil

ministry showed.

2) Retail inflation cools to five-year low of 3.17 percent in January : India's annual consumer price

inflation eased to 3.17 percent in January, its lowest level in at least five years, helped by a

sharp cooling in food prices as per the Government data. Food inflation was 0.53 percent last

month, lower than a revised 1.37 percent in December. India began measuring consumer

inflation at the start of 2012.

3) RBI keeps key rate on hold, surprises with change in stance : The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

kept its repo rate on hold at 6.25 percent for a second straight policy meeting, opting to wait for

more clarity on inflation trends and on how a radical crackdown on "black money" is impacting

economic growth. The RBI monetary policy committee voted 6-0, its third unanimous decision in

a row since being established in September. RBI Governor Urjit Patel stated India was at a

"good place" in terms of financial stability and the central bank will manage any sharp volatility in

the markets arising out of global developments including concerns over U.S. President Donald

Trump's protectionist policies

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 22018.6

52 week high (Rs) 1770

52 week low (Rs) 1194

3m average

volume NSE 150141

Beta 0.13

Face value ( RS ) 5

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 71.2%

Institutions 17.8%

Non-Institutions 11.0%

Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 6676.4 4653.4 4184.7

EBITDA (Cr) 2720.4 1020.2 951.5

PAT (Cr) 1722.4 750.9 663.9

Net Profit Margin

(%) 25.8% 16.1% 15.9%

EPS (RS) 101.8 44.4 39.2

Book Value (Cr) 3389.0 2490.6 1902.4

P/E 13.4 26.8 19.1

P/BV 6.7 7.9 4.7

RoNW(%) 50.8% 30.2% 34.9%

RoCE(%) 30.1% 14.8% 22.9%

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd.Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd.Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd.Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: PharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticals NSE CODE: TORNTPHARM

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1297| Target: Rs 1550

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock make a classical double bottom around 1220 and

now has moved up from symmetrical triangle pattern . This

breakout of sideway pattern after steep fall suggest that bulls

taking control of the stock and now is ready to move up

sharply as volumes have picked up on bullish days.

MACD buy signal has been generated and the stock has moved

above 90dma signaling renewed buying interest.

Target of the stock is around 1550 in medium term

The company has presence in cardiovascular (CV) and central

nervous system (CNS), gastro-intestinal, diabetology, anti-

infective and pain management segments. The Company

operates only in one business segment viz. pharmaceuticals,

comprising mainly manufacture of branded formulations.

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs. 1443 crore,

decline by 6.4% Y-o-Y. The EBITDA for the quarter was Rs. 316

crore, it is 21.9% of sales, and it’s lower by 48.9% Y-o-Y. The

PAT for the quarter has also decline by 47.8% over the same

quarter in the previous year stood at Rs. 229 crore.

Revenue growth in India for the quarter is at 12% and 9% for

the nine months period. As India being the largest market

accounts for about 34% of Q3 revenue and Year-to-date

revenue contribution of India is also 34%.

Top line de growth largely impacted for the quarter as well as

for the nine months by 44% and 51% respectively, which is

again mainly because of the limited competition product base

impact. As US is the 2nd largest market contributes 21% of

total revenue.

Torrent currently has a further six approvals in hand for which

aim to launch about three products in the remaining months

of this year. Also the company continue to focus on specialty

physicians in the branded generics market and continue to

focus on sales force productivity and brand building as well as

have continued with enhanced focus on a pipeline building in

Q3 as well as year to date company’s R&D expenses are now

at 7% of sales.

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Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 134649

Beta 1.23

Face value ( RS ) 1

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY2016

Promoters 47.4%

Institutions 30.4%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 2418.5 2186.9 1840.0

EBITDA (Cr) 463.4 354.1 280.7

PAT (Cr) 229.2 175.6 124.2

Net Profit Margin

(%) 9.7% 8.5% 7.1%

EPS (RS) 28.8 22.7 16.7

Book Value (Cr) 922.3 740.9 529.2

P/E 33.1 34.5 21.7

P/BV 8.2 8.6 5.0

RoNW(%) 24.9% 23.7% 23.5%

RoCE(%) 18.3% 17.8% 16.9%

Kajaria CeramicsKajaria CeramicsKajaria CeramicsKajaria Ceramics Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: Furniture, Furnishing, PaintsFurniture, Furnishing, PaintsFurniture, Furnishing, PaintsFurniture, Furnishing, Paints NSE CODE: KAJARIACER

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 565| Target: Rs 650

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• Kajaria Ceramics has broken out of its medium term

downtrend after taking support at its 100dma and made

higher top above 540

• The stock gave 5-8-13 dma positive crossover suggesting start

of upmove after sharp fall since Nov-Dec 2016. Higher base

building also taking place in this stock.

• Likely target for this stock is 650 in medium term

Kajaria Ceramics is the largest manufacturer of ceramic/vitrified tiles in

India and the 9 th largest in the world. It has an annual capacity of

68.60 mn. sq. meters presently, distributed across nine plants - one in

Sikandrabad (UP), one in Gailpur (Rajasthan), One in Malutana

(Rajasthan), five in Morbi (Gujarat) and one in Vijaywada (AP).

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs. 600 crore, surge by 1%

Y-o-Y. The EBITDA for the quarter was Rs. 98 crore, it is 16.34% of

sales, and it’s lower by 2% Y-o-Y. The PAT for the quarter has also

decline by 4% over the same quarter in the previous year stood at Rs.

60 crore.

New Joint Venture (AP): The Company has acquired 51% stake in

Floera Ceramics Pvt. Ltd, which plans to put a manufacturing facility of

polished vitrified tiles with a capacity of 5.70 MSM p.a. in Andhra

Pradesh. The land has already been acquired. The plant is expected to

be commissioned by September 18.

Management View:

• The Company launched a nation-wide TVC on-boarding

celebrity Akshay Kumar as the ambassador for the Kajaria

brand – cementing a strong recall in the minds of discerning

consumers. This initiative, we believe, will deliver inspiring

returns with a rebound in consumer spending.

• Going forward, business landscape appears promising. This

optimism is pivoted on important realities namely as

reduction/subsidization in home-loan rates, favorable policies

by the Central Government.

`



Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 1307360

Beta 0.92

Face value ( RS ) 1


Promoters 52.8%

Institutions 25.6%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 15534.1 14182.8 12714.8

EBITDA (Cr) 2808.6 2235.4 1997.9

PAT (Cr) 1726.2 1395.2 1218.8

Net Profit Margin

(%) 11.5% 10.1% 9.9%

EPS (RS) 18.0 14.5 12.7

Book Value (Cr) 5605.3 4742.4 4039.2

P/E 48.4 56.6 41.7

P/BV 17.9 16.4 13.0

RoNW(%) 30.8% 29.4% 30.2%

RoCE(%) 27.3% 25.9% 26.3%

AAAAsian Paintssian Paintssian Paintssian Paints Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: PaintsPaintsPaintsPaints NSE CODE: ASIANPAINT

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1009 | Target: RS 1200

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock has been in long term uptrend as it is moving in

higher top higher bottom formation since last 3 years. It

has recently moved above important supply zone of 1000

and given V shaped recovery

• The structure of the price pattern looking at Elliot wave

pattern looks to be 5 wave corrective structure and as 850

price level is held, price again will touch its 5 wave

extension target of 1200 minimum in medium term.

• The stock is likely to achieve its target of 1200 which is its

dochian channel resistance in monthly chart pattern

Asian Paints is an Indian paints company. The company's business

portfolio includes Decorative Coatings (81% of revenue), industrial

coatings (4% of revenue), Home improvement Business (2% of

revenue), International Business (13% of revenue).

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs. 4554 crore,

improved by 2.6% Y-o-Y. The PBDIT for the quarter was Rs. 776 crore,

it is 17.8% of sales, and it’s lower by 1.2% Y-o-Y. The PAT for the

quarter has also decline by 1.5% over the same quarter in the

previous year stood at Rs. 489 crore.

Decorative Paints business in India registered low single digit volume

growth in the third quarter. Quarter began on a good note. However,

demand was impacted to certain extent in the month of November

on the back of demonetization, particularly in the North and Central

parts. Whereas, International business reported good numbers

specifically Nepal, Fiji and certain units in the Middle East.

The total CAPEX plan for FY17 is about Rs. 600 crore. This includes

some spends for the two new paint manufacturing facilities being set

up at Mysuruore and Vizag. Both the plants will be set up in phases,

depending on future demand condition.

Management View: The demand outlook for the domestic market

remains uncertain, at least over the short term. However, expect

improvement in conditions as moving forward. Good growth in the

agricultural sector coupled with reduced interest rates in the

economy should provide impetus for growth. Over the long term, a

“less-cash” economy and implementation of GST, despite some

expected initial hiccups, would push the demand to the formal

sector.

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Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 942250

Beta 0.57

Face value ( RS ) 1


Promoters 67.2%

Institutions 18.9%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 33019.0 31785.7 29066.1

EBITDA (Cr) 5774.9 5227.3 4574.5

PAT (Cr) 4082.4 4363.1 3945.6

Net Profit Margin

(%) 12.4% 13.8% 13.6%

EPS (RS) 18.9 20.2 18.2

Book Value (Cr) 3971.7 4021.6 3537.3

P/E 45.9 43.6 33.2

P/BV 47.4 47.0 36.9

RoNW(%) 102.8% 108.5% 111.6%

RoCE(%) 75.4% 83.5% 83.9%

HHHHindustan Unileverindustan Unileverindustan Unileverindustan Unilever Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: Personal ProductsPersonal ProductsPersonal ProductsPersonal Products NSE CODE: HINDUNILVR

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 858 |Target: Rs 920

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• It has formed classical FLAG Formation pattern in medium

term char of timeframe of over 2 years and now at midpoint

crossing after forming double bottom around 780. Such

pattern shows strength in the stock

• This pattern structure suggest the stock is likely to move

minimum to its higher end of the flag formation end.

• Target of the stock in medium term is likely to be 920.

HUL’s products relate to categories such as food (ice cream, coffee, tea

leaves, and soups), personal care (soaps, shampoos, toothpaste, and

deodorants), home care (Detergent powders and soaps, dish-wash gels

and bars), water purification, nutrition, health, hygiene and beauty.

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs. 8124 crore, decline by

1% Y-o-Y. The EBITDA for the quarter was Rs. 1355 crore, it is 16.7% of

sales, and it’s lower by 5% Y-o-Y. The PAT for the quarter has also

surge by 7% over the same quarter in the previous year stood at Rs.

1038 crore due to exceptional item includes profit on sale of

properties (Rs. 159 crore).

To compete with fastest growing Ayurveda based company Patanjali.

HUL introduced three ayurvedic shampoos to offer products at same

prices. HUL has introduced Ayurveda Care Triphala shampoo under the

Clinic Plus brand and two Tresemme Botanique items– Nourish &

Replenish and Detox & Restore.

Demonetization Impact: Impacted by lower cash on hand, Trade

down-stocking due to liquidity squeeze, Wholesale impacted the most,

Varied impact across geographies, Logistics – Impacted particularly in

long distance routes.

Steps taken for the challenge as per the management : Rapid

planning and replenishment to capture fast changing consumer

demand, Differentiated channel and geography focus, Dynamically

play the portfolio to deliver value to the consumer, Maintain

competitive ad spends to drive off take, Work closely with distributors

& retailers to mitigate impact of cash crunch.

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Research Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

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`



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Telephone No.: 033 4050 2700, Fax No.: 033 2243 6941. Website: www.peerlesssec.co.in

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