per manet synthesis report

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PermaNETPermarost Long-term Monitoring Network

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Klagenfurt, 2011

Journal series 1Report 3


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Impressum

Authors

Mair, Volkmar Autonomous Province o Bolzano (Italy)Zischg, Andreas Abenis Alpinexpert GmbH/srl, Bolzano (Italy)Lang, Kathrin Autonomous Province o Bolzano (Italy)Tonidandel, David Autonomous Province o Bolzano (Italy)

Krainer, Karl University o Innsbruck (Austria)Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas University o Graz (Austria)Deline, Philip National Center or Scienti ic Research EDYTEM, Grenoble (France)Schoeneich, Philippe University Joseph Fourier, Grenoble (France)Cremonese, Edoardo ARPA Valle dAosta, Aosta (Italy)Pogliotti, Paolo ARPA Valle dAosta, Aosta (Italy)Gruber, Stephan University o Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)Bckli, Lorenz University o Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)

Sponsored by

The PermaNET project is part o the European Territorial Cooperation and co-unded by the European Regional

Development Fund (ERDF) in the scope o the Alpine Space Programme www.alpine-space.eu

Layout

Jrg Buchmann (standotograie.com), INTERPRAEVENT

Printed by

Centro duplicazioni della Provincia Autonoma di Trento

Quote

Mair, V., Zischg, A., Lang, K., Tonidandel, D., Krainer, K., Kellerer-Pirklbauer, A., Deline, P., Schoeneich, P.,Cremonese, E., Pogliotti, P., Gruber, S., Bckli, L., (2011): PermaNET - Permarost Long-term Monitoring Network.Synthesis report. INTERPRAEVENT Journal series 1, Report 3. Klagenurt.

To be ordered at

International Research Society INTERPRAEVENTFlatschacher Strae 70A-9020 Klagenurt (Austria)ISBN 978-3-901164-14-9

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www.interpraevent.at service publications

International Research Society INTERPRAEVENT, Klagenurt (Austria)


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PermaNETPermarost Long-term Monitoring Network

SYNTHESIS REPORT

1

Cover photo, rom let to right: Soil subsidence and adjustment o oundations, photo: A. Zischg. Drillings at Aguille du Midi, photo:P. Deline. Transport o drilling equipment, photo: Geological Service Autonomous Province o Bolzano. Rock glacier near Stettiner Htte,South Tyrol, photo: V. Mair


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Preface

2Preface Lead Partner

In discussions about the possible eects o climate change inthe Alps, the thawing o permarost is oten mentioned as anadverse consequence, alongside the melting o glaciers and

the increase o precipitation intensity. In comparison to themelting o the glaciers, the degradation o permarost is not

directly visible in the landscape. Therefore, the analysis of per-

mafrost distribution and the assessment of the consequences

o climate change to permarost are subject to greater uncer-tainties. The gaps in knowledge about this topic oten lead tospeculation. The media, in particular, tends to either exagger-ate or neglect the consequences o permarost degradationand related natural hazards. The main aim o the PermaNETproject was to compile data and acts about permarost dis-tribution and the thermal evolution of permafrost in a chang-

ing climate, creating one knowledge base and objectiying

discussions in this eld. This required bringing scientists to-gether with stakeholders and decision-makers in territorialplanning. The Geological Service of the Autonomous Province

o Bolzano, Italy initiated the PermaNET project, establishedthe interdisciplinary partnership of 13 partners and 23 observ-

ers throughout the Alps and managed the project. The resultso this intensive cooperation are now evident and outlined inthis report. For the rst time, a harmonized and standardizeddataset o permarost distribution in the Alps could be elab-orated. The evolution o permarost can now be monitoredby an Alpine-wide monitoring network established withinthe PermaNET project. Bringing together all data and expe-

riences o permarost investigations throughout the Alps hasresulted in a huge step orward in permarost research and innatural hazard management practice. The elaborated decision

basis provides valuable inormation or authorities and com-panies working in high-mountain areas. This brochure aimsat summarizing the most relevant ndings and to introducethe maps, databases, handbooks and guidelines elaboratedby the PermaNET team.

Volkmar MairAndreas Zischg

Lead Partner PermaNET

Preface INTERPRAEVENT

Mountain permarost is one o many aspects to be consid-ered in natural hazards and risk management in the Alps. Theassessment o natural hazards and the elaboration o haz-

ard zone maps in permarost aected areas is a rather com-plex task as the degradation o permarost is infuencing thetriggering and the evolvement o natural hazards processessuch as rockalls, landslides and debris fows. This can havedirect consequences or inrastructures in permarost areasand indirect consequences or other natural hazards such asfoods. As increasing air temperature has a direct impact onthe thermal characteristics and the geotechnical behaviouro rozen rock and soil material climate change is anothertopic, which has to be taken into account.All in all, mountain permarost is another actor o the com-plex system o Alpine catchments. Hence, in high mountain

areas the analysis o permarost and related natural haz-ards represents one part o integrated watershed manage-ment and in some cases it plays an important role or theintegrated risk management.INTERPRAEVENT supports the exchange o knowledge andexperiences between science and practitioners in the eldo natural hazards and risk management. Thereore this bro-chure is a valuable continuation o ormer brochures on thedocumentation o mountain disasters (DOMODIS - availablein English, French and German) and the brochure on dritwood (available in German only).The PermaNET team tried to synthesize the state o the art

o permarost detection, permarost monitoring and the con-sideration o permarost in natural hazards assessment roma practitioners point o view. Thus, this brochure contrib-utes to the main aims o INTERPRAEVENT such as providingdecision bases or stakeholders in natural hazards and riskmanagement, presenting scientic discoveries and conclu-sions to practitioners and creating decision-making aids orall questions o technical, planning, administrative and eco-nomic preparedness.

Kurt Rohner, PresidentGernot Koboltschnig, Business Manager


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Introduction 4

The project 5

The partnership 6

Permarost monitoring network 8

Permarost distribution in the Alps 10

Permarost and related natural hazards 16

Permarost and climate change 18

Permarost and water resources management 20

Recommendat ions or decision-makers 22

3

Content


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4

Permarost is dened as lithosphere material (soil or rock)that remains at or below 0C or more than two years. Per-marost can - but does not need to contain water or ice.

Glaciers are not permarost. The supercial layer above per-mafrost is called the active layer because temperatures can

rise seasonally above 0C. In the Alps, the active layer has athickness o around 0.5 to 8 m.

In contrast to lowland permafrost, mountain permafrost is in-

fuenced highly by the mountain topography. Thereore, thedistribution o mountain permarost is spatially heterogene-ous according to the strong variability o topography, geo-morphology and climate conditions in the Alps.

Mountain permarost is highly sensitive to climatic changes.

During recent summers, an increased intensity and frequencyo rockalls and numerous debris fow events have been ob-served throughout the Alps. Examples o such events are thecollapse o a moraine at Mulinet, rockalls on the Matterhornand Thurwieser, the debris fow event at Guttannen and nu-merous smaller events. Permafrost-related hazards affect traf-

c routes, tourism areas, inrastructures and settlements. Themain challenge is how the respective authorities must con-sider these actors o climate change in risk prevention andregional development. In some locations, the topic has to be

implemented into risk management practices. A further aspect

o the importance o permarost areas is the contribution o

permafrost ice to the hydrologic regime of alpine watersheds.

With the joint development o a common strategy or deal-

ing with permarost and related hazards under changingclimatic conditions and the creation o an Alpine-wide mon-itoring network, the project aims at preventing natural haz-ards, at contributing to sustainable territorial developmentand at the implementation o good governance practices.

Introduction

Rock glacier. Photo: A. Zischg Soil subsidence and subsequent adjustments o oundation. Pho-to: A. Zischg

Erosion in ossile rock glacier deposits. Photo: A. Zischg

Rockall scar. Photo: V. Mair

Slope movement. Photo: A. Zischg

Introduction


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The project

5

The overall objective o this project was to make a signi-icant contribution towards the mitigation o natural haz-ards related to permarost and manage their consequences,

with specic regard to climate change impacts. To this enda common strategy or dealing with permarost and relatedhazards under changing climatic conditions was developedcollaboratively and an Alpine-wide monitoring network es-tablished. The PermaNET project urther aimed to contributeto sustainable territorial development and the implementa-tion of good governance practices by supporting the develop-

ment of regional and local adaptation strategies by providing

decision-makers and local authorities with a decision-baseand strategies or dealing with these actors in their work.The spatially distributed gaps o permarost data were tobe closed and a consistent permarost map and database

or the entire Alps elaborated. Testing new and promisingtechnologies and nding joint solutions or the adaptationo risk management practices, the project aimed to pushthe Alpine Space to be one o the leading model regions inthe feld o mountain permarost research and permarostmonitoring.

The project activities were divided into two administrativework packages (WP), one PR work package and our scien-tic-technical work packages. The activities o the technicalwork packages were supported by WP1 Project prepara-tion, WP2 Project management and by WP3 Inorma-

tion & publicity. The latter also supported the distributiono the products and recommendations.

WP4 Permafrost monitoring network aimed to collect meta-

data about existing permarost monitoring activities in theAlps, extending the existing monitoring networks and de-ning guidelines or urther installations. A metadata set opermarost monitoring activities in the Alps was created. Itcloses inormation gaps and supports the establishment oa permarost monitoring network in the Alps. In WP4 addi-tional permarost monitoring stations that expand ongo-ing monitoring activities were established and installed. The

new monitoring stations provide additional data about theactual thermal state o permarost and its temporal evolu-tion at selected locations.

WP5 Permarost and climate change aimed to providedata about the permarost distribution in the Alps. In WP5,an Alpine-wide inventory o permarost evidence and an Al-pine-wide map of permafrost distribution were compiled. Per-

marost distribution maps provide the basis or assessing the

effects of climate changes to permafrost and related processes

and the basis or the elaboration o adaptation measures ordifferent economical activities in high mountain areas. A book

about the thermal and geomorphic permarost response topresent and uture climate change in the European Alps wascompiled to highlight recent permafrost changes and possible

future impacts of climate change to permafrost environments

through case study sites in the Alpine Space. Furthermore, a

handbook o methodologies and techniques or permarostmapping and detection was elaborated to support the im-plementation o the techniques in practice.

WP6 Related natural hazards provides the basis or theelaboration o the common strategy or dealing with per-marost and related hazards under changing climatic con-

ditions. Recommendations or decision-makers have beendeveloped, based on case studies o permarost related haz-ards throughout the Alps.

WP7 Water resources provided inormation about the rel-

evance o permarost ice or water resources management.Furthermore, they developed recommendations or regionalenvironmental institutions o how best to analyse the qual-ity o the spring water with particular ocus on heavy metalpollution and particles.

Kick-o conerence o PermaNET, photo: Geological Service Auto-nomous Province o Bolzano

The project


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6

The partnership

Most authorities responsible for risk management activities

are facing issues of permafrost and related natural hazards.

However, knowledge and data regarding permarost relat-

ed problems and their consideration in natural hazards andrisk management dier regionally and sectorally through-out the Alps. Permarost is also a topical subject in researchactivities. Because o this, the Geological Service o the Au-

tonomous Province of Bolzano, Italy initiated the PermaNET

project and established an interdisciplinary project part-nership. All partner states o the Alpine Space programmedealing with permafrost issues were involved in the project.

Project partners were either national or regional authori-ties in the ields o natural hazards management, environ-mental protection agencies, orest management, hydraulicengineering, meteorology, civil protection, and water re-

sources management. The involvement o scientiic institu-tions supported the transfer of knowledge from researchers

to decision-makers. For speciic issues, observers, relevantstakeholders from NGOs, tourism industry and electric pow-

er production companies or external experts were invit-ed to participate. National and transnational stakeholderswere consulted or the elaboration o common strategies.The most relevant project observers actively ollowed theproject activities and contributed considerably.

Since most regions o the Alps will be aected by climaticchange and its consequences in permarost areas, the co-operation between relevant decision-makers and scientiststhroughout the whole Alps was essential for the implemen-

tation of this project. The involvement of policy-makers, the

responsible authorities or risk management and scienti-ic institutes made it possible to ind integrated solutions.Collaboration between dierent stakeholders and sectorscoupled with close ties to other key institutions (e.g. tour-ism industry, drinking water supply, ski resorts, external ex-

perts) provided a wide ield o experiences and allowed oran interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The transnation-al cooperation, through the exchange o knowledge, dataand practices reduced costs in inding solutions or the ad-aptation o governance practices to speciic eects o cli-mate changes.

Excursion o the PermaNET team. Photo: Geological Service Autonomous Province o Bolzano

The partnership


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7The project partnership was comprised o the ollowing in-stitutions:

Project Partners

Autonome Provinz Bozen - Sdtirol, Amt r Geologie undBaustoprung / Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano, UicioGeologia e Prove Materiali

Bayerisches Landesamt r Umwelt, Abteilung 10: Geolo-gischer Dienst, Wirtschatsgeologie, Bodenschutz

ARPA Piemonte - Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Am-bientale, Dipartimento Geologia e Dissesto

Regione Autonoma Valle dAosta, Assessorato territorio eambiente, Dipartimento territorio, e ambiente, Direzioneambiente

Regione del Veneto, Direzione Geologia e Attivit Estrat-

tive, Servizio Geologia

Provincia Autonoma di Trento, Dipartimento Protezione Ci-vile e Inrastrutture, Servizio Geologico

sterreichisches Bundesministerium r Landwirtschat,Forstwirtschat, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschat

Universitt Innsbruck, Institut r Geographie

Universitt Graz, Institut r Geographie und Regionalor-schung

Zentralanstalt . Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG),

Regionalstelle r Salzburg und Obersterreich

Universit Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I, Institut de Gogra-phie Alpine, Laboratoire PACTE-Territoires

Centre National de la Recherche Scientiique - LaboratoireEDYTEM

Grenoble INP, GIPSA-lab

Schweizerisches Bundesamt r Umwelt BAFU

Transnational project management

Abenis Alpinexpert GmbH/srl

Active Observers

Universitt Zrich

WSL-Institut r Schnee- und Lawinenorschung SLF

Observers

International Research Society INTERPRAEVENT

Ministero per la tutela dellambiente, del Territorio e delMare, Direzione generale per la ricerca ambientale e losviluppo

Slovenian Torrent Erosion Control Service

Regione Piemonte, Direzione Ambiente, Settore Pianiica-zione Aree Protette

Seilbahnen Sulden

Dolomiti Superski

Skigebiet Ratschings-Jauen

Conindustria Trento, Associazione Nazionale EsercentiFuniviari (A.N.E.F.), Sezione impianti a une

Societ degli Alpinisti Tridentini

Bayerische Zugspitzbahn Bergbahn AG

Sdtiroler Alpenverein

Parco Naturale Adammello Brenta

Direction Rgionale de lEnvironnement Rhne Alpes

Ple Grenoblois Risques Naturels

Oice National des Forts - Dlgation Nationale RisquesNaturels - RTM, Direction Technique Restauration des Ter-rains en Montagne

Parc National des Ecrins

Compagne des Guides de Chamonix

Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, Abt. Geoinormation

Land Salzburg, Landesgeologischer Dienst

Land Steiermark, Landes-Umwelt-Inormation Steiermark(LUIS)

Land Krnten, Hydrographischer Dienst

Land Vorarlberg, Landesvermessungsamt

Partner meeting. Photo: Geological Service Autonomous Provinceo Bolzano

The partnership


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8

Permafrost monitoring network

Within the PermaNET project a detailed census o existingpermarost monitoring sites was conducted. The collecteddata was used to compile an Alpine-wide overview o the

existing monitoring activities, highlight areas without mon-itoring activities, and ormulate guidelines or the installa-tion o urther monitoring stations.On selected locations, new monitoring stations have beeninstalled and instrumented.The Alpine-wide monitoring network now was extendedby more than 40 monitoring sites that measure various pa-

rameters and characteristics o permarost in rock and de-bris-covered soils.The installation of new monitoring stations was financed in

part by the PermaNET project, whereas the long-term main-

tenance is guaranteed by the institute or authority that in-

stalled the instruments.Following the example o the Swiss permarost monitor-ing network PERMOS, national permarost monitoring net-works have been ounded. In France, the PermaFRANCE

network was established. In Italy and Austria, national mon-

itoring networks are in preparation. The national monitor-ing networks are coordinating the monitoring activities on

Fig. 1: Distribution o permarost monitoring stations in the Alps that are part o the PermaNET monitoring network. The metadata o permarost monitoring stationswill be continuously updated together with the permarost evidence inventory.



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9a national scale. All the monitoring sites that make up thepermarost monitoring network are included in the inven-tory o permarost evidence (see ollowing section) whichperiodically updates the numerical summaries o the col-lected parameters. The monitoring activities will be financed

in the long-term by regional, national or international envi-ronmental authorities.A set o guidelines or the installation and maintenanceo the monitoring stations has been developed so that themonitoring network can be extended and guarantee thecompatibility o the measured data.

A list o the installed permarost monitoring stations andguidelines for the installation of permafrost monitoring sta-

tions can be viewed and accessed at:www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/products/monitoringnetwork

Permarost monitoring stations established or extended within thePermaNET project.

A-1A-2A-3A-4A-5A-6F-1F-2F-3F-4

F-5F-6F-7F-8F-9D-1I-1I-2I-3I-4I-5I-6I-7I-8I-9

I-10I-11I-12I-13I-14I-15I-16I-17I-18I-19I-20I-21I-22I-23I-24

I-25I-26I-27I-28I-29I-30I-31I-32I-33I-34

Switzerland was the irst country in the Alps that coordinatedthe permarost monitoring activities on a national scale. All thepermarost monitoring stations in Switzerland are coordinated by

PERMOS (www.permos.ch)

PERMOS and PermaFRANCE are summarizing periodically the mon-itoring data.

Hinteres LangtalWeissen CirqueDsen ValleyHoher SonnblickGoldbergspitzeHochreichartOrelleLaurichardDeux AlpesAiguille de Mid

Les DrusBrardCasse des ClausinsForantDrochoirZugspitzeSenales - GrawandSenales - LazaunUltimo - RossbnkRiva di Tures - NapenBraies - Croda Rossa Cadin del GhiacciaioBraies - Croda Rossa Cadin di Croda RossaPasso Gardena - Lech del DragonSolda - MadritschCavaion (GST)

Cavaion (borehole)LobbiePresenaCima UomoMatterhorn Carrel SouthMatterhorn Carrel NorthMatterhorn Cheminee newMatterhorn Cheminee oldMatterhorn Oriond - racMatterhorn Oriond not racCol dEntreves SouthCol dEntreves NorthGrandes Jorasses South-rightGrandes Jorasses South-letCol Peuterey North

Aiguille MarbreeCime Bianche Pass - shallowCime Bianche Pass - deepPiz BoMt. Moro PassSalati Pass Mosso Inst.Salati Pass Corno dei CamosciSommeiller PassLa Coletta PassGardetta Pass



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10

Permafrost distribution in the Alps

One o the main objectives o PermaNET was to provide aconsistent map o permarost distribution in the Alps. Aninventory was developed and compiled that shows the lo-

cations where the existence or absence o permarost wasdetermined. This was the basis or developing the statisti-cal model or the elaboration o the permarost distribu-tion map.

Inventory of permafrost evidence

As a basis for the permafrost model covering the entire Alps,

evidence o the presence or absence o permarost rom

many countries and institutions has been standardized andinventoried. This inventory only has a few variables to allow

researchers to easily insert their data into the database. Itcontains evidence based on borehole temperature, groundsurace temperature, rock-all scars, trenches or construc-

tion sites, surace movement, geophysical prospecting androck glaciers. The rock glacier inventory is managed sepa-rately rom the point types o evidence: individual rock gla-

cier inventories are supplied as a collection of polygons that

are merged into one rock glacier inventory.

The development of the inventory was supported by the Per-

maNET observers University o Zurich and WSL SwissFederal Institute or Snow and Avalanche Research SLF.

Fig. 2: Map o the permarost evidence inventory. Presently, more than 400 points o evidence (red dots) and nearly 5000 rock glaciers (blue polygons) are contained in thehomogenized inventory.



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land and France with a total number o 4795 rock glaciers.The seven inventories are regional (Valle dAosta, Piemon-te, Veneto, TrentinoAlto Adige in Italy, Massi du Combey-not in France, Ticino in Switzerland and central and easternAustria) and thus do not cover the entire European Alps.

However, the inventory is published as a database on theinternet and users can continue to add permarost obser-vations and evidence data ater project closure.

The permafrost evidence inventory can be viewedand accessed at:www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/products/PED

11Besides the PermaNET team, thirty-ive individuals and in-stitutions provided valuable data. Contributors providedinormation rom their own research areas, consisting oexisting data and knowledge adapted to the common dataormat used in this inventory. This was complemented by

speciic investigations in collaboration with regional/localgeological services, ski resort operators, engineering com-panies and alpine guide societies.The total number o point-type permarost evidence is 408(April 2010), extending rom 44.29 to 47.47 N and rom5.91 to 14.88 E and covering all Alpine countries exceptMonaco, Liechtenstein and Slovenia. The rock glacier data-set includes seven inventories rom Italy, Austria, Switzer-

Rock glacier. Photo: X. Bodin

Examples o permarost evidence:

Trenches with ground ice visible. Photo: X. Bodin



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12augmented with additional information because one would

also like to know the properties o areas that are not rockglaciers or steep bedrock slopes. This is done by introducing

oset terms that are derived rom published research andthat describe how much warmer or colder certain types o

terrain are than what would be expected in the model. Be-cause the definition of these offsets has a degree of subjec-

tive choice, the model result is no longer considered to be aprobability but reerred to as a permarost index.

Boreholes. Photo: P. Deline

Rockall scar with exposed ice. Photo: L. Trucco

Permafrost distribution model

The statistical permarost distribution model that has beendeveloped has two sub-models, one or debris areas andone or steep bedrock slopes. They are calibrated using therock glaciers and rock temperature measurements from the

evidence inventory. The explanatory variables are mean an-

nual air temperature, potential solar radiation and meanannual precipitation. These can be calculated or the entire

Alps and are used to derive estimates o the probability orock glaciers being intact or o rock ace temperature beingbelow 0C. This quantitative model however needs to be



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13Permafrost map

The inal permarost map shows the colour-coded perma-rost-index that is usually overlaid on a base map or re-erence. Glaciers, that by deinition are not permarost, areshown with an own signature. The map legend is always

accompanied by an interpretation key that allows rein-ing the estimate with local inormation about ground con-

ditions. The map has been elaborated by the PermaNETobserver University o Zurich in collaboration with the Per-

maNET team and is reely available as a GIS layer or onlineor globes such as Google Earth with a spatial resolutiono approximately 30 m.

The permafrost map can be viewed and accessed at:

www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/products/pmap

Fig. 3: Map o the modelled permarost distribution in the Alps.



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14

Map Legend

This map shows a qualitative index describing how likelypermarost exists. It is consistent or the entire Alps and in-tended or practical use by e.g., public authorities or duringinrastructure planning and maintenance.

Some important local actors such as sub-surace material

or snow conditions are not or only approximatively account-

ed or in the map. However, they can cause strong dier-

ences in ground temperature in otherwise equal topograhic

situations. For this reason, the map legend is accompaniedby the interpretation key, shown on the right, that canbe used to locally urther reine the estimate shown on themap. As an example, one would not expect permarost in

fine material (B) or in homogeneous rock (H) where a yellowsignature is shown on the map. In special circumstances,permarost can exist outside the area o the color signatureshown. The map shows estimated conditions; more certain-

ty can locally be achieved by e.g., geophysics or boreholes.

This map has been compiled at the University o Zurich, Switzerlandwithin the ramework o the Project PermaNET.Boeckli, L., Brenning, A., Gruber, S. & Noetzli J. 2011: A statistical per-

marost distribution model or the European Alps, The CryosphereDiscussions, 5, 1419-1459,www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1419

Paul, F., Frey, H. and Le Br is, R. (subm.): A new glacier inventory orthe European Alps rom Landsat TM scenes o 2003: Challenges andresults. Annals o Glaciology, 52(59).

Fig. 4: Local sample o the inal Alpine Permarost Map. The colour-coded permarost index is overlaid onto a base map or reerence.

Permarost in nearly all conditions

Permarost mostly in cold conditions

Permarost only in very cold conditions

Blue:

Purple:

Yellow:

Glacier



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15

Slope position and long-lasting snow-patches

The position along a slope can aect ground temperatures

through the sorting of clasts, air circulation within the slope,

and snow re-distribution. Oten, the oot o slope (E) hascolder ground temperatures. It contains more coarse ma-terial and is aected by long-lasting avalanche snow. Sim-ilarly, other late-lying snow patches indicate locally coldconditions. The top of slope (F) often has locally rather warm

conditions. Frequently, it contains smaller clasts as well asan inill o ine material.

Steep rock slopes

Steep rock slopes have diering degrees o heterogenei-ty caused by micro-topography and racturing. Higher het-erogeneity (G) oten enables a thin snow cover as well asventilation and deposition o snow in large ractures, in-dicating locally cold conditions. Steep, smooth and large-ly unractured rock (H) is indicative o warmer conditions.This effect is more pronounced in sun-exposed than in shad-

ed locations.

Interpretation Key

Clast size, soil properties and vegetationA cover o coarse blocks with open voids and no inill oine material (A) indicates cold conditions. Bedrock, ine-

grained soil or soil with coarse blocks but an inill o ines(B) indicate warm conditions. A dense vegetation cover (C)usually indicates the absence o permarost.

Rock glaciersActive (intact) rock glaciers (D) are identiied by signs omovement such as steep ronts. They are reliable visual in-dicators o permarost within their creeping mass o de-bris but do not allow easy conclusions on adjacent areas.

Photo: J. Fiddes

Photo: J. Fiddes

Photo: S. Gruber

Photo: M. Phillips

Photo: S. Gruber



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16

Permafrost and related natural hazards

The WP6 dealt with the relationship between permarostand natural hazards under changing climatic conditions.The working group evaluated several methods for detection

and monitoring of permafrost-related slope movements andmade recommendations or risk management in areas a-ected by permarost degradation.

Which hazards are related to permafrost?A state o the art report about permarost-related hazardsand permarost degradation was elaborated. Its our chap-ters deal with rock glaciers, debris lows, rockalls, and lo-cal ground movements and their eects on inrastructure.Each chapter summarizes present knowledge about theseprocesses and their relationship to the climate change, andis illustrated by several recent case studies in the Alps. These

case studies show the variety o eects on inrastructuresin high mountain areas.

What can occur if climate changes modify perma-

frost regimes?Rock glaciers are creeping accumulations o debris, usuallymoving at a rate o cm or dm per year. Observed rock gla-cier dynamics show climatically-induced variations in ve-locity. In most cases only moderate velocity changes occur,related to annual changes o the mean annual ground sur-ace temperature: an increase in ground temperature in-

duces an acceleration of movements, and inversely. In some

cases, a very strong and non-reversible acceleration, up todecameters per year, was observed. This can generate rock-

fall activity at the rock glacier front, and progression or even

rupture and collapse o its ront (Fig. 5 and 6).

All surface movements can cause damage to inrastruc-tures built on the moving terrain. Small movements can beaccommodated by adapted design, but the potential accel-erations induced by climate warming could challenge eventhese. In any case, building on permafrost induces addition-

al construction and maintenance costs, and reduces the life-time o inrastructures.

Rockfalls generate risks or mountaineering activities inthe Alps and inrastructure like cable cars, mountain rail-ways and roads, or ski resorts. Rock avalanches can threat-en valley inhabitants at long distance rom the source area.Climatically-driven degradation o rockwall permarost isprobably one o the main triggers o recent, present and u-ture rockalls (Fig. 6), as suggested by the massive ice thatwas observed in several starting zones, and the increase >1C o the mean annual ai r temperature in the Alps during

the 20th Century, accelerated since the 1980s.

Where rock glacier ronts overhang steep slopes, second-ary processes can mobilize the released debris downslope.This and rockall activity in permarost areas can increase,or instance, the debris supply and thus the volume o de-bris lows. Permarost can inluence debris flow activi-ty in dierent ways, mainly by increasing the debris supplyto the torrential system, but also by inluencing the waterruno characteristics. But, the inluence o permarost ondebris low activity depends mostly on the speciic charac-teristics o the torrent catchment. The melting o ice in per-

marost soils or scree slopes in the course o active layerthickening can lead to the loss o internal ice as stabilis-ing binding material. This can lead to the increased availa-bility o erodible material, to the subsidence o soils in lat

Fig. 5: Aerial photographs o the Hinteres Langtalkar rock glacier (Austria) between 1954 and 2006. Formation o crevasses and disintegra-tion through active sliding processes since 1994 at its rontal part. Aerial photographs by Austrian Federal Oice o Metrology and Survey-ing (BEV), courtesy o V. Kaumann and R. Ladstdter.



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17

areas and to slope movements in inclined slopes. In steep

slopes, permarost inluences hydraulic conductivity andoverall slope stability. In summertime, the active layer is of-

ten saturated because o the characteristics o the perma-

rost table as acquiclude. Thus, iniltration capacity is lowand supericial runo is high. The permarost table can actas a slide horizon or landslides in the active layer. Conse-quences o this can be the sliding o debris cover, the set-tling o debris and related slope movements or landslides.The melting o ground ice contributes to the ormation othermokarst phenomena and thermokarst lakes with sub-sequent lake outburst loods.

Which actions are needed to face increasing risks

in affected locations?The described processes related to permarost and perma-

rost degradation do not inluence hazard situations overwide areas. However, in single cases they could have a re-markable inluence on hazard and risk situations. The irststep in each planning activity is to reer to the permarostdistribution map. I the map shows a possible presence o

permafrost at the study site, the use of permafrost detection

methods as described in the PermaNET handbook is recom-

mended. I permarost is to be considered, special monitor-ing methods support the analysis o the processes. In orderto evaluate operational approaches for detection and mon-

itoring of slope movements and ground temperature in per-

marost areas, six method sheets were established about

dGPS, GPR, DInSAR, ERT, TLS, and terrestrial photogramme-try. Basic principles of each method are summarized, before

listing their possible applications, and the main results, op-portunities and limitations; each sheet is completed with

reerences and illustrated with some igures. Comparisonsbetween some pairs o these methods were realized, anda SWOT analysis completed this assessment.

Recommendations were made to reduce hazards in a per-marost environment. For example: (i) inrastructures onan active rock glacier and its ront zone should be avoid-ed; (ii) a security zone should be observed below an over-hanging rock glacier; (iii) trails crossing rock glaciers orpassing down below its ront should be regularly checked.

The state of the art report of natural hazards inpermafrost areas and the handbook for mountainpermafrost detection and mapping can be viewedand accessed at:www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/products/permafrosthazards

Fig. 6: Comparative evolution o climate in Chamonix (1040 m a.s.l.) and rockalls in the North side o the Aiguilles de Chamonix (MontBlanc massi, France). A: mean annual air temperature anomaly in relation to the 1951 1980 mean; B: rockalls number per decade and peryear. Black line: trend (linear regression, decadal or B); wide bars in B: rockalls not precise ly dated. (Meteorological dataset: Mto-France).

Fig. 7: DGPS reerence stat ion on a ixed survey point in ront o theReichenkar rock glacier (Austria). Photo: K. Krainer



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Permafrost and climate change

High altitude and high-latitude regions are generally recog-

nized as being particularly sensitive to the effects of climate

change. A large proportion o permarost in the European

Alps, for instance, is at or close to melting point and is there-ore very sensitive to atmospheric warming.

Thermal and geomorphic permafrost response to

present and future climate change

Possible thermal and geomorphic eects are maniold andthe possible thermal reactions o permarost include:(a) Increasing ground temperature and thereore perma-rost warming;(b) Thawing o permarost with three eects: reduction inthe spatial extent of permafrost areas, thickening of the sea-

sonally unrozen layer, and increasing ground-water circu-

lation and pressure;

(c) Changes in the number and characteristics o reeze-thaw cycles.

Possible geomorphic permarost reactions include:(a) Changes in the rate o rock glacier displacement (verti-

cally and horizontally);(b) Changes in displacement mode o rock glaciers (romcreep to initiation o basal sliding or even collapse);(c) Changes in cryogenic weathering;(d) Changes in the volume and extent o unstable slopes;(e) Changes in requency and magnitude o mass move-ment events such as rockalls, rock slides or debris lows.

Case studies in the European Alps

PermaNET was concerned with the understanding o ther-mal and geomorphic permarost response to present anduture climate change. To achieve this aim, research was

carried out in more than 10 dierent study sites distribut-

Fig. 8: Ice days (1961 90) and est imated dierence in Ice days between 1961 90 and 2021 2050 above 1800 m a.s.l. Source: ZAMG.



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19ed over the entire European Alps in Austria, Switzerland,France and Italy. In a irst step, present and uture climatechange was analysed and modelled ocusing on rost-, ice-,and reeze-thaw days between the two climate periods196190 and 20212050 in the Greater Alpine Region/GAR

(Fig. 8). Second, the results o the climate change analysiswere combined with the data rom the study sites by ana-lysing the recent thermal and/or geomorphic evolution o arelevant landorm and its possible uture response to pre-dicted climate change. The study reveals the range o pos-sibilities how permarost is reacting in a warming climate,two examples are briely presented here.

Example 1: Rockfalls in the Mont Blanc Massif

A total o 139 rockalls have been documented between2007 and 2009 in the central area o the Mont Blanc mas-si, 53 o them were precisely dated. Among them, 51 rock-

alls occurred during the hottest months o the year and 38occurred after a period of increasing mean daily air temper-

atures of at least two days (Fig. 9). Important is the observa-

tion that the hotter the summer, the higher the elevation othe rockall scar. This indicates or the uture that rockallswill occur at higher elevations not aected earlier with im-plication to people and inrastructure at the new areas orockall release, transport and deposition.

Example 2: Rock glacier velocities in Central Aus-

tria

Active rock glaciers are creeping phenomena of permafrost.

Their movement is strongly related to climatic conditionsand consequently to ground temperatures. As shown by dif-

ferent studies, the movement pattern of the monitored rock

glaciers in the European Alps correlated with each otherduring the last years to decades. At the Dsen Rock glacierin Central Austria or instance, two peaks o high suracecreep were detected in 2003-2004 and 2008-2010 (Fig. 10).

The velocity pattern indicates that this rock glacier reactsmore quickly ater a cool period with deceleration. In con-trast, the rock glacier needs more time to react to warmerperiods with acceleration o the movement related to theinertia o the rock glacier system towards ground warming

and velocity changes. This indicates or the uture that pre-dicted climate warming will irst cause an increase o thecreep velocities o rock glaciers. However, in a later stagethis will lead to inactivation o many presently active rockglaciers. Some degrading rock glaciers may even entirelycollapse and are consequently sources or natural hazards.

The report about the thermal and geomorphic per-

mafrost response of permafrost to present and fu-

ture climate change in the European Alps can beviewed and accessed at:

www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/products/permarostresponse

Fig. 10: Mean annual air temperature/MAAT (running 12-month mean) and horizontal suracecreep at the Dsen Rock Glacier between 1990 to 2010.

Fig. 9: Documented rockalls in the Mont Blanc massi in 2007 (red dots), 2008 (yellow dots)

and 2009 (green dots).



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Permafrost and water resources management

There is still little knowledge on the impact o climatechange on alpine permarost and how the enhanced melt-ing o permarost ice alters discharge patterns and water

quality o alpine headwaters. Rising air temperature hascaused the release o highly concentrated meltwater romactive rock glaciers. In response to the enhanced release o

ions and heavy metals high altitude lakes, which are drained

by meltwater rom rock glaciers, can experience a substan-tial change in water chemistry. In particular, the high con-centrations o Ni may strongly exceed the limit o drinkingwater as has been ound in meltwater draining rom ac-tive rock glaciers and glaciers at Schnalstal (tztal Alps).The ice content of alpine permafrost like rock glaciers is still

unknown. However, the hydrological regime o active rockglaciers is strongly driven by the amount o water stored

as ice in permarost ground. To study the hydrological re-gime o active rock glaciers and their response to climatechange discharge, water temperature, electrical conductiv-ity and water chemistry (anions, cations, heavy metals) orock glacier springs were determined at Lazaun (Schnalstal)

and compared to glacial meltwater streams and springs not

impacted by permarost. Core drillings were perormed attwo active rock glaciers (Lazaun Schnalstal and Ross-bnk Ultental). The cores were documented in detail andare currently beeing analyzed or ice-content, ice-chemis-try, stable isotopes and palynology. The drill holes were in-

strumented with temperature loggers and inclinometers

to obtain inormation on the thermal characteristics anddynamics o the rock glaciers. Core drilling and the hy-drological and chemical measurements are supported bysedimentological analysis o the debris mantle o the rockglaciers including clast rock types, grain size, grain size dis-tribution (sorting), rounding and orientat ion of the clasts on

the surace, content o ine-grained matrix, thickness andstructure of the debris mantle, mineralogical and geochem-

ical composition and the ice content o the uppermost ro-zen layer. Additional inormation on the thickness, internalstructure and ice content o active rock glaciers and per-

marost ground is achieved by geophysical methods suchas ground penetrating radar.Climate change induced permarost degradation may havemajor impacts on ecosystems, landscape stability and onpeople and their livelihoods.

We recommend that springs derived rom glaciers or al-pine permarost should be studied careully at least or

one hydrological year concerning water quality (anions,cations, heavy metals, bacteria), suspension load, temper-ature and discharge beore such springs are used or drink-ing water supply.

The report of Permafrost and water resourcesmanagement can be viewed and accessed at:http://www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/products/pwaterresources

Discharge measurements. Photo: K. Krainer Ice sample rom rock glacier. Photo: D. Tonidandel



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Drillings on rock glacier. Photo: D. Tonidandel



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23Outlook

The PermaNET project provided the bases or the establish-ment o a transnational permarost monitoring network inthe Alps. Now, it is up to the stakeholders together withthe decision makers to build on these bases and to guar-

antee the continuity o permarost monitoring. The Perma-NET project partners and partner institutions will continueto maintain and improve the monitoring network. The nextstep is to deine a way to coordinate the transnational per-marost monitoring network, to compile and analyse per-marost monitoring data to a periodic report o the thermalstate o permarost in the European Alps.

Rockall

Slope movement

Debris low

Slope movement and aected inrastructure

Rockall rom rock glacier ront

Illustrations: J. Buchmann

Recommendations for decision-makers


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24The following persons contributed to the

PermaNET project and related activities:

Lorenz Bckli,

Xavier Bodin,Lucia Borasi,Laurence Bourjot,Fulvio Bovet,Jrg Buchmann,Anselmo Cagnati,Alberto Carton,Edoardo Cremonese,Andrea Crepaz,Michle Curtaz,Matteo DallAmico,Valentina Deendi,

Philip Deline,Thomas Echelard,Simone Frigerio,Jacopo Gabrieli,Anna Galuppo,Michel Gay,Stephan Gruber,Mauro Guglielmin,Viktor Kaumann,Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer,Alexander Klee,Gernot Koboltschnig,

Karl Krainer,Christine Kroisleitner,Jean-Michel Krysiecki,Kathrin Lang,Stphanie Letey,Gerhard Lieb,Laura Magnabosco,Volkmar Mair,

Further information:

The website o the PermaNET project provides detailed re-ports o the topics described in this brochure. Furthermore,the detailed reports, handbooks and guidelines available at

the website provide bibliographies or urther inormation.The PermaNET website oers o web services or viewingand analysing the compiled permarost evidence inventoryand the permarost distribution map.For urther inormation please have a look to:

www.permanet-alpinespace.eu

Matteo Mantovani,

Markus Maukisch,Joanne Moar,Matthias Monreal,Umberto Morra di Cella,Steania Muti,Caterina Naldi,Jeannette Noetzli,Luca Paro,Christine Pasquettaz,Alessandro Pasuto,Marcia Phillips,Paolo Pogliotti,

Andreas von Poschinger,Hugo Raetzo,Ludovic Ravanel,Claudia Riedl,Riccardo Rigon,Simonetta Riva,Philippe Schoeneich,Wolgang Schner,Hubert Siegel,Roberto Seppi,Johann Sttter,Christoph Suter,

David Tonidandel,Marco Vagliasindi,Jean-Marc Vengeon,Iris Voyat,Giorgio Zampedri,Andreas Zischg,Matteo Zumiani


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per manet synthesis report

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