Calibration, performance Calibration, performance and sensitivity analysis of and sensitivity analysis of

the HECthe HEC--HMS modelHMS modelJuraj M. CunderlikJuraj M. Cunderlik

Slobodan P. Slobodan P. SimonovicSimonovic

Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing

Climatic Conditions

22

OutlineOutline

IntroductionIntroductionModel structureModel structureModel calibrationModel calibrationModel performanceModel performanceModel sensitivityModel sensitivityDiscussionDiscussion

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IntroductionIntroduction

Both event and contBoth event and cont’’ models calibratedmodels calibratedVerification and sensitivity analysisVerification and sensitivity analysisProject Report IVProject Report IVModel applicationsModel applications

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Event modelEvent modelstructurestructure

RAINFALL

PERVIOUS SURFACE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE

RIVER CHANNEL

LOSSES

BASEFLOW

RESERVOIR OPERATION

AQUIFER

BASIN OUTLET

Meteorologic component

Rainfall loss component

River routing componentBaseflow component

Reservoir component

DIRECT RUNOFF

Direct runoff component

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Continuous modelContinuous modelstructurestructure

PRECIPITATION

PERVIOUS SURFACE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE

RIVER CHANNEL

LOSSES

BASEFLOW

RESERVOIR OPERATION

AQUIFER

BASIN OUTLET

Meteorological component

Precipitation loss component

River routing componentBaseflow component

Reservoir component

DIRECT RUNOFF

Direct runoff component

SNOW ACCUMULATION AND MELT

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

Snow component

66

Model calibrationModel calibration

-81.5 -81.4 -81.3 -81.2 -81.1 -81 -80.9 -80.8 -80.7

42.9

43

43.1

43.2

43.3

43.4

43.5

43.6

Stage AStage A

Stage BStage B

Stage CStage C

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Event model calibrationEvent model calibrationUTRCA data

Initial parametervalues

Manualcalibration

Softconstraints Optimization Hard

constraints

Initial parametervalues

End

Start

Performanceevaluation

HEC-HMS

88

ContCont’’ model calibrationmodel calibration

+ snow model calibration+ snow model calibration+ semiannual parameterization+ semiannual parameterization

UTRCA data

Initial parametervalues

Manualcalibration

Softconstraints

Hardconstraints

End

Start

Performanceevaluation

HEC-HMS

99

Model performanceModel performance

Flow comparison graphFlow comparison graphScatter graphScatter graphResidual graphResidual graphObjective function graphObjective function graphGoodnessGoodness--ofof--fit measuresfit measures

1010

Flow comparison graphFlow comparison graph

1111

Scatter graphScatter graph

1212

Residual graphResidual graph

1313

Objective function graphObjective function graph

1414

GoodnessGoodness--ofof--fit measuresfit measures

Percent error in peak (PEP)Percent error in peak (PEP)Percent error in volume (PEV)Percent error in volume (PEV)LagLag--0 cross0 cross--correlation coefficient (CORR)correlation coefficient (CORR)Relative BIAS (RBIAS)Relative BIAS (RBIAS)Relative RMSE (RRMSE)Relative RMSE (RRMSE)Relative peakRelative peak--weighted RMSE (RPWRMSE)weighted RMSE (RPWRMSE)

Model Model performanceperformance

Thames River @ Byron

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Event model performance Event model performance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

3-Jul-00 5-Jul-00 7-Jul-00 9-Jul-00 11-Jul-00 13-Jul-00 15-Jul-00 17-Jul-00

Q [m

3 s-1]

Modeled

Observed CalibrationCalibration

1717

Event model performanceEvent model performance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

29-Jul-00 31-Jul-00 2-Aug-00 4-Aug-00 6-Aug-00 8-Aug-00 10-Aug-00

Q [m

3 s-1]

Modeled

Observed VerificationVerification

1818

Event model performanceEvent model performanceByron@Thames PEPF [%] PEV [%] CORR [-] RBIAS [%] RRMSE [%] RPWRMSE [%]

Calibration 3.211 1.405 0.992 -15.047 32.076 25.314 Verification 1 1.937 8.743 0.977 -17.101 26.166 23.994 Verification 2 2.686 26.919 0.967 -40.230 45.421 40.740

Well fitted peaksWell fitted peaksQuicker recessionsQuicker recessionsUnderestimated volumesUnderestimated volumesReservoir operationReservoir operation

1919

ContCont’’ model performancemodel performance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

11-Oct-83 19-Jan-84 28-Apr-84 6-Aug-84 14-Nov-84 22-Feb-85 2-Jun-85 10-Sep-85 19-Dec-85

Q [m

3 s-1]

Modeled

Observed CalibrationCalibration

2020

ContCont’’ model performancemodel performance

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

8-Oct-95 16-Jan-96 25-Apr-96 3-Aug-96 11-Nov-96 19-Feb-97 30-May-97 7-Sep-97 16-Dec-97

Q [m

3s-1

]

Modeled

Observed VerificationVerification

2121

ContCont’’ model performancemodel performance

Byron@Thames PEPF [%] PEV [%] CORR [-] RBIAS [%] RRMSE [%] RPWRMSE [%]Calibration 10.667 8.827 0.946 -6.443 44.826 40.707Verification 13.096 7.607 0.939 -7.615 46.488 42.245

Snow accumulation and melt adequately Snow accumulation and melt adequately reproduced reproduced Good simulation of low flow periods Good simulation of low flow periods No systematic bias in the seasonal modelNo systematic bias in the seasonal modelPerformance improved with increasing basin Performance improved with increasing basin area and spatial detailarea and spatial detailUnderestimated streamflow volumesUnderestimated streamflow volumes

2222

Model sensitivityModel sensitivity

Local sensitivity analysisLocal sensitivity analysisAbsolute sensitivity coefficientAbsolute sensitivity coefficientFactor perturbation methodFactor perturbation methodGoodnessGoodness--ofof--fit measures used as fit measures used as sensitivity functionssensitivity functions

Model Model sensitivitysensitivity

Middle Thames River @ Thamesford

2424

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

03-Jul-00 05-Jul-00 07-Jul-00 09-Jul-00 11-Jul-00 13-Jul-00 15-Jul-00 17-Jul-00

Qdi

f [m

3 s-1]

Li

Lr

TcSt

Bi

Rc

Td

Event model sensitivityEvent model sensitivity

-30 % parameter decrease

2525

Event model sensitivityEvent model sensitivity

Flood magnitude Flood magnitude →→ ClarkClark’’s storage s storage coefficient, time of concentration and the coefficient, time of concentration and the loss parametersloss parametersPeak volume Peak volume →→ loss parameters and the loss parameters and the ClarkClark’’s storage coefficients storage coefficient

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20PARAMETER CHANGE [%]

PEPF

[%]

Tc St Bs Br Cs Ss If

Us Ts Sp Gs Gp Gc

ContCont’’ model model sensitivitysensitivity

2727

ContCont’’ model sensitivitymodel sensitivity

Flood magnitude Flood magnitude →→ ClarkClark’’s storage s storage coefficient and the parameters describing coefficient and the parameters describing soil physical properties (infiltration rate and soil physical properties (infiltration rate and soil layer storage) soil layer storage) Peak volume & low flows Peak volume & low flows →→ SMA SMA groundwater layer parametersgroundwater layer parametersOverall goodnessOverall goodness--ofof--fit fit →→ SMA SMA groundwater layer parameters and groundwater layer parameters and baseflowbaseflow parametersparameters

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DiscussionDiscussion