performance comes in waves - unicredit

19 March 2015 Credit Research

Covered Bond & Agency Monitor

UniCredit Research page 1 See last pages for disclaimer.

Performance comes in Waves■ Market Telegram: The micro view on last week might

lead to a conclusion that the richening in yields has come to an end – at least until Wednesday lunchtime. 10Y Bunds offered a yield of around 26-28bp which is quite noticeably north of the lows we have seen the week before (18.6bp). It was Wednesday just before noon when 10Y Bunds fell below 26bp and rallied to below 20bp. Slightly different from weeks before, swaps kept up the tightening pace: 10Y Bund swap spreads remained rather constant at … guess what … 35bp. We are back again on our home turf! Peripheral sovereigns lagged slightly: 10Y Spanish paper for example showed a weekly yield performance of -13bp an now trade at a yield of around 1.23% (equiv. ms +69bp). (page 3)

■ SSA Market Telegram: Activity in primary SSA markets picked up this week with new transactions across the supranational, agency and regional issuer spectrum. The European Investment Bank was in the market with a new 10Y benchmark bond that was still due to price at the time of writing. The supranational gave guidance at ms-30bp. Agence Francaise de Developpement raised EUR 1bn in a 16Y benchmark bond. AGFRNC is a lender for France’s foreign and economic policy and benefits from strong implicit government support. (page 3)

■ Partial sale of Kommunalkredit Austria (KA): KA published an ad-hoc announcement stating that its owner, (FIMBAG), which holds 99.78% of KA’s shares, has signed a share purchase agreement with a buyer consortium. This will lead to 1. a transfer of a part of KA’s business operations to a newly incorporated company (KA New) by way of a proportionate demerger and 2. a merger of the remaining part of KA (KA Residual) into KA Finanz AG (KF). (page 4)

■ Moody's and Fitch comment on new Spanish bank-ruptcy law: As of Sunday, Spain’s debt restructuring law has come into effect. It will allow individuals with liabilities of up to EUR5m to approach a local notary and initiate restructuring of their financial and commercial debts. The notary will act as a mediator and assess the consolidated inventory of assets and liabilities and the cash flow generation ability of the borrower, and formulate a restructuring agreement for the analysis of creditors. (page 6)

■ CBPP3 update: As of 13 March 2015, the Eurosystem purchased a total of EUR 56.95bn. Between 6 March and 13 March, purchases totaled EUR 2.8bn. The overall split into primary and secondary market purchases was 19% for primary and 81% for secondary purchases as of 28 February 2015. (page 7)

■ PSPP Update: On 9 March 2015, the ECB started buying sovereign, agency and supranational bonds under the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). Similar to the CBPP3, the ECB publishes its weekly purchases on its website (Link). (page 7)

■ Spanish regions: the North South divide: Regions in the South of Spain had weaker economic growth than their peers in the North of the country, Fitch underlines in a recent report. Spanish nominal GDP declined by 5.96% in the six years between 2008 and 2013. Economic growth was above average for regions in the North of the country, and GDP per capita was also higher for these regions. However, even the best performing’s region GDP, that of Navarre, declined by 3.86% during that period. (page 8)

Covered Bonds ■ Market update (page 9)

■ Relative value (page 10)

■ New issues 2015 (page 10)

■ Market snapshot (page 12)

Sub-Sovereigns, Supras & Agencies ■ Market update (page 14)

■ Relative value (page 15)

■ New issues 2015 (page 15)

■ Market snapshot (page 17)

Covered Bonds: Sub-Sovereigns, Supras & Agencies: Franz Rudolf, CEFA +49 89 378-12449 [email protected]

Florian Hillenbrand, CFA +49 89 378-12961 [email protected]

Valentina Stadler +49 89 378-16296 [email protected]

Robert Vielhaber +49 89 378-12004 [email protected]

Bloomberg: UCCR Internet: www.research.unicredit.eu

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All market data as of one day prior to the publication date.




Market Telegram The micro view of last week might lead to the conclusion that the richening in yields has come to an end – at least until Wednesday lunchtime. 10Y Bunds offered a yield of around 26-28bp, which is quite noticeably north of the lows we have seen the week before (18.6bp). It was Wednesday just be-fore noon when 10Y Bund yields fell below 26bp and rallied to below 20bp. Slightly different from previous weeks, swaps kept up the tightening pace: 10Y Bund swap spreads re-mained rather constant at … guess what … 35bp. We are back again on our home turf! Peripheral sovereigns lagged slightly: 10Y Spanish paper for example showed a weekly yield performance of -13bp and now trade at a yield of around 1.23% (equiv. ms +69bp). One might as well argue that increasingly negative sentiment on Greece is leaving some marks on other peripheral markets.

SECTOR SPREAD PERFORMANCE

Source: UniCredit Research

Secondary market in covered bonds obviously remains high-ly influenced by the ECB. Last week’s purchases reached EUR 56.947bn (please see separate section). As plotted above, all sectors tightened vs. swaps, with Multi Cédulas leading the pack simply for the reason that they still have the longest way to go, i.e. offer the largest yield.

Primary market wise, we have seen an interesting new issue from Caixabank. Apparently March is Caixabank month. We have seen deals of this issuer in March 2014, March 2013, March 2012 (ok, we faked this one … it was February back then), March 2011, and March 2010.

In the following chart we plot the deal sizes, original tenor and the spread paid at issuance. Apart from the fact that coming down from 80bp last year to 15bp yesterday is quite a big deal, we also talk about more than double the ttm. This even leaves aside the yield paid on the bonds … the chart probably has enough content for a whole evening and sev-eral glasses of wide … probably Spanish (we highly recom-mend to take a closer look at a 2005 vintage from Priorat for this purpose).

CABKSM MARCH DEALS


Florian Hillenbrand (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-12961 [email protected] SSA Market Telegram Activity in primary SSA markets picked up this week with new transactions across the supranational, agency and re-gional issuer spectrum. The European Investment Bank (EIB; Aaas/AAAs/AAAs) was in the market this week with a new 10Y benchmark bond that was still due to price at the time of writing. The supranational gave guidance at ms-30bp. Asian Development Bank (ASIA; Aaas/AAAs/AAAs) shows that the green bond trend is spreading to Asia, still one of the less active regions in the segment.

OUTSTANDING GREEN BONDS BY ISSUER’S REGION


ADB priced a USD 500mn green bond last week, at 12bp over US Treasuries. The final order book comprised 44 in-vestors. Proceeds will support renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transport and water infrastructure assets.

Agence Francaise de Developpement (AGFRNC; --/AAn/AAs) has this week come to market with a EUR 1bn 16Y benchmark bond. AGFRNC is a lender for France’s for-eign and economic policy and benefits from strong implicit government support. It priced the bond with a pick-up of

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iBoxx € France Covered LegaliBoxx € Hypothekenpfandbriefe

iBoxx € Ireland CoverediBoxx € Italy Covered

iBoxx € Netherlands CoverediBoxx € Norway Covered

iBoxx € Oeffentliche PfandbriefeiBoxx € Portugal Covered

iBoxx € Scandinavia CoverediBoxx € Spain Covered Pooled CedulasiBoxx € Spain Covered Single Cedulas

iBoxx € Sweden CoverediBoxx € UK Covered

iBoxx € France Covered SFH Index

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15bp over the French sovereign, in line with guidance, using the FRTR 5/2030 and FRTR 10/2032 interpolated curve. The bond pays a coupon of 0.875%, resulting in a yield of 0.949%. Investors in the eurozone bought more than half of the bonds (56%), followed by the UK and Switzerland (20%). Activity among German states has been more muted over the past few weeks. The state of Lower Saxony (NIESA; --/--/AAAs) becomes another case in point of SSA primary issu-ance at negative yields with a new EUR 250mn 2Y bond, which it priced at ms-16bp. The pricing equals a negative yield of -6.5bp. It comes after the European Stability Mecha-nism brought a 2.5Y bond to market last week that pays a negative yield of -7bp. Also out of Germany, L-Bank (LBANK; Aaas/AAAs/AAAs) completed a EUR 250mn issue last week. The bond has a 20Y maturity but investors have a right to execute a “put” the bond after 10 years. In the dollar SSA market, L-Bank was in the market with a new USD 1bn bond. The 2Y issue was priced at 30bp over US Treasuries and tightened by 3bp by Thursday. Out of the Netherlands, Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten (BNG; Aaas/AA+s/AAAn) raised USD 2bn from a new 5Y bond at ms+8bp.

Secondary Market Comment Long-dated supranational bonds tightened further over the course of this week, led by EIB 10/2037 and EIB 3/2042, which were 10bp tighter, in terms of asset swap levels. In Europe’s periphery, on the other hand, spreads widened. Two outstanding ICO bonds with 5Y and 4Y maturities were 10bp and 6bp wider according to iBoxx data. The bonds widened despite being part of the ECB’s quantitative easing program.

SSA SPREADS: CHANGE OVER TWO WEEKS

Source: iBoxx, UniCredit Research

Robert Vielhaber (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378 12004 [email protected]

Partial sale of Kommunalkredit Austria Kommunalkredit Austria (KA; Ba1wn/---/An) published an ad-hoc announcement, stating that its owner, Fi-nanzmarktbeteiligung Aktiengesellschaft des Bundes (FIM-BAG), which holds 99.78% of KA’s shares, has signed a share purchase agreement with a buyer consortium. This will lead to: 1. a transfer of a part of KA’s business operations to a newly-incorporated company (KA New) by way of a propor-tionate demerger, and 2. a merger of the remaining part of KA (KA Residual) into KA Finanz AG (KF). The deal is in-tended to be closed by the end of 2Q15, conditional upon respective approvals.

The new owners: The buyer consortium consists of the English Interritus Limited, linked to Dr. Patrick Bettscheider, and the Irish Trinity Investments Limited, managed by the London-based asset manager Attestor Capital.

KA New: The business operations of KA and its subsidiaries that will be transferred to KA New include loans and securi-ties of the existing company of around EUR 3.5bn of total assets amounting to EUR 4.3bn, according to the Austrian Commercial Code. Among the securities transferred, the ad-hoc statement lists 28 bonds with an outstanding volume of around EUR 1.7bn (according to Bloomberg data). Among these bonds, there are four covered bonds, all denominat-ed in Swiss francs (CH0020669583, CH0022280058, CH0024015452, CH0025662831), with a total outstanding volume of more than CHF 1bn.

KA Residual: The amount of assets of the part of KA re-maining after the restructuring step has a volume of around EUR 7bn and will be merged into KA Finanz AG (KF; ---/A-s/A+n). Among the securities merged with KF, the ad-hoc statement lists 19 bonds with an outstanding volume of around EUR 1.9bn (according to Bloomberg data). Among these bonds are seven covered bonds (XS0236776877, XS0592235187, XS0973424152, XS1033673440, XS1045121784, XS1045221063, XS1046170699) with a total outstanding volume of more than EUR 1.6bn, including KA’s three benchmark covered bonds (Fundierte Bankschul-dverschreibungen).

Key topics: The sale of KA and the merger of KA Residual into KA Finanz (KF) leads to a split of the covered bonds and the respective cover pool. While the CHF-denominated cov-ered bonds will end up with KA New, the EUR-denominated covered bonds will be transferred to KF. In our view, this raises two questions with respect to covered bonds: 1. Does KF have a covered bond license in place? 2. How will the underlying assets in the cover pool be split up? The question about a covered bond license can be answered as follows:

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https://www.kommunalkredit.at/uploads/KAAdHoc_Teilverkauf_en_20150313_Final_7273_EN.pdf

https://www.kommunalkredit.at/uploads/KAAdHoc_Teilverkauf_en_20150313_Final_7273_EN.pdf




For Fundierte Bankschuldverschreibungen (FBS), no special license is needed and all domestic banks can issue FBS (in contrast to Austrian Pfandbriefe, where a special license is needed). Currently, there are no covered bonds outstanding from KF.

However, the question about the cover pool split is more complex, in our view. KA’s currently outstanding covered bonds all relate to just one public sector pool as a whole. Thus, there is no link between CHF-denominated covered bonds and CHF-denominated cover assets, for example. The “Law regarding FBS” (FBSchVG; Gesetz betreffend Fun-dierte Bankschuldverschreibungen, from 27 December 1905) states that, in the case of an insolvency (which does not ap-ply here, but might give an indication of how to handle cover pool transfers), all the assets have to be collectively sold to a suitable credit institution, which, at the same time, has to take over all liabilities with respect to Fundierte Bankschul-dverschreibungen. This would mean that a split of cover as-sets is not intended by the FBSchVG in case of an issuer insolvency. As stated above, we do not have an issuer insol-vency in this case and therefore procedures are different in a demerger and bank-split-up case. One possible procedure could be, in our view, that each single cover asset needs to be split up proportionally among KA New and KA Residual. However, this could cause quite an extensive and complex exercise. A split of collateral by random selection or even “collateral picking” could be even more tricky and lead to a controversial discussion among investors in the respective covered bond. We look forward to seeing this topic clarified.

KA’s covered bonds: As of end-September 2014 (latest available data), KA had public sector covered bonds (Fun-dierte Bankschuldverschreibungen) with a volume of EUR 3.79bn outstanding. These were backed by a cover pool of EUR 4.99bn, resulting in a nominal overcollateralization of 31.8%. The covered bonds are rated Aa3 watch negative by Moody’s. The collateral score is 13.4%, the TPI is “high” and the TPI leeway is zero notches. The public sector collateral is dominated by Austrian exposure (81.1%), followed by Swit-zerland (7.5%), Germany (7.4%), Italy (1.7%), Slovenia (1.4%), Poland (0.8%) and Belgium (0.1%). Within Austria, 41% relates to Upper Austria, 19% to Styria, 15% to Carinthia, 10% to Lower Austria and Burgenland, each, 2% to Vienna, 1% to Tyrol and Vorarlberg, each. The dominant borrower types of the Austrian exposure are direct claims against regions (43%), loans guaranteed by regions (21%) and direct claims against municipalities (14%).

General rating considerations: Kommunalkredit Austria (KA) is currently rated Ba1wn/---/An by Moody’s and Fitch and its covered bonds have a Aa3wn/---/An rating. As Moody’s and Fitch both factor in a strong support likelihood from Austria, the ratings are expected to come under pres-sure following the partial sale of KA to the buyer consortium.

This will also negatively impact KA’s covered bonds that re-main with KA, as the TPI leeway is zero notches, meaning that a downgrade of the issuer will also lead to a downgrade of the covered bonds. In the case of KA Finanz (KF), which is currently rated ---/A-s/A+n by S&P and Fitch, the rating pressure is less pronounced, as the ownership structure of KF is not affected by the KA sale (KF's sole owner is the Republic of Austria). Thus, the covered bonds being trans-ferred to KF will benefit from a stronger credit profile than before. At the time of writing, no details were available re-garding the future composition of the split cover pools or about the overcollateralization levels targeted. Thus, a pre-cise rating impact on the respective covered bonds cannot be predicted at the current stage.

Securities that will be assigned to KA New

ISIN Receiver

Amount outst.

(EUR mn)

CRNCY Mat. Collateral

type XS0104786263 KA New 15 EUR 2019 Sen. Unsec. XS0163624504 KA New 30 EUR 2019 Sen. Unsec. XS0186736228 KA New 11 EUR 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS0187975262 KA New 10 EUR 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS0205974701 KA New 11 EUR 2029 Sen. Unsec. XS0210167218 KA New 3 EUR 2020 Sen. Unsec. XS0213230047 KA New 19 EUR 2020 Sen. Unsec. XS0214564972 KA New 20 EUR 2019 Sen. Unsec. XS0214981812 KA New 5 EUR 2025 Sen. Unsec. XS0215839019 KA New 5 EUR 2035 Sen. Unsec. XS0215865287 KA New 5 EUR 2020 Sen. Unsec. XS0218474533 KA New 50 EUR 2020 Sen. Unsec. XS0218834843 KA New 5 EUR 2015 Sen. Unsec. XS0219327524 KA New 5 EUR 2022 Sen. Unsec. XS0241451581 KA New 10 EUR 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS0252593198 KA New 10 EUR 2018 Sen. Unsec. XS0252786669 KA New 40 EUR 2020 Sen. Unsec. XS0253410236 KA New 13 EUR 2026 Sen. Unsec. XS0267998481 KA New 8 EUR 2018 Sen. Unsec. XS0270872640 KA New 375 CHF 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS0271821513 KA New 5 EUR 2021 Sen. Unsec. XS0299062389 KA New 17 EUR 2017 Sen. Unsec. XS0302365134 KA New 4 EUR 2017 Sen. Unsec. XS0340901908 KA New 5 EUR 2018 Sen. Unsec. CH0020669583 KA New 305 CHF 2017 COVERED CH0022280058 KA New 200 CHF 2020 COVERED CH0024015452 KA New 237 CHF 2022 COVERED CH0025662831 KA New 314 CHF 2026 COVERED

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research




Securities that will be assigned to KA Finanz AG (KF)

ISIN Receiver

Amount outstanding

(EUR mn)

CRNCY Mat. Collateral

type AT0000329859 KF 200 ATS 2017 Sen. Unsec. XS0180539420 KF 25 EUR 2021 Sen. Unsec. XS0235597068 KF 11 EUR 2015 Sen. Unsec. XS0236776877 KF 75 EUR 2035 COVERED XS0255439803 KF 6,300 HUF 2026 Sen. Unsec. XS0261832942 KF 10 EUR 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS0592235187 KF 500 EUR 2016 COVERED XS0973424152 KF 500 EUR 2018 COVERED XS1003354252 KF 10 EUR 2015 Sen. Unsec. XS1015492595 KF 10 EUR 2017 Sen. Unsec. XS1016032457 KF 15 EUR 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS1017111029 KF 5 EUR 2015 Sen. Unsec. XS1020014608 KF 7 EUR 2015 Sen. Unsec. XS1033673440 KF 500 EUR 2021 COVERED XS1040273267 KF 20 EUR 2016 Sen. Unsec. XS1045121784 KF 30 EUR 2017 COVERED XS1045221063 KF 13 EUR 2017 COVERED XS1046170699 KF 30 EUR 2017 COVERED XS1072804484 KF 75 USD 2015 Sen. Unsec.

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

Pros & Cons: Although there are no details yet available regarding KA New’s future business model, strategy of rating composition and commitment, cover pool composition and OC levels, we summarize our thoughts on the two entities with respect to the impact on covered bonds.

KA NEW

Positive Challenges Potentially higher quality of transferred assets

Private ownership with lower credit profile and rating (KA; Ba1wn/---/An)

Focus on covered bonds as funding tool likely

Rating pressure due to lower sup-port assumptions but (partially) compensated by future business prospective

Commitment to appropriate rating and OC levels expected for capital market access


KA FINANZ

Positive Challenges 100% ownership by FIMBAG Potentially lower quality of trans-

ferred assets Stronger credit profile and higher rating (---/A-s/A+n)

OC level likely to be optimized

Benefit of ratings from several agencies and high rating levels limited due to wind-down situation


Franz Rudolf, CEFA (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-12449 [email protected]

Moody's and Fitch comment on new Spanish bankruptcy law As of Sunday, Spain’s debt restructuring law has come into effect. It will allow individuals with liabilities of up to EUR 5mn to approach a local notary and initiate restructuring of their financial and commercial debts. The notary will act as a me-diator and assess the consolidated inventory of assets and liabilities and the cash-flow generation ability of the borrower, and formulate a restructuring agreement for the analysis of creditors.

Restructuring options include: maturity extensions, payment in kind, principal write-downs, or debt-to-equity conversions if the debtor owns their own business. If the mediator cannot produce a viable restructuring plan, the case will be trans-ferred to a court to start an insolvency proceeding, which means liquidation of assets and potential debt forgiveness. Debt forgiveness is conditional on the repayment of secured loans up to the value of the security, which means secured creditors continue to have a privileged status and their re-payment ranks senior and is sourced from the ring-fenced liquidation proceeds of the property.

While Fitch argues that the new regulation effectively formal-izes what is already market practice, Moody’s is not able to see the development neutrally. Moody’s basic standpoint is quite plain: as so far debt forgiveness was not possible but with the new law it is, there has to be a negative effect on recovery prospects. It might be small but it is not zero.

If it is possible at all, we tend to agree with both; however, we cannot help but add a another flavor to the discussion which slightly leaves the turf of pure capital markets’ talk: but one step at a time. Yes, we agree with Moody’s in a way that the possibility of debt forgiveness limits nominal recovery on the one hand, plus it also constitutes a homeopathic portion of moral hazard: never ever being able to recover sounds much more of a threat than the chance to get rid of it in the foreseeable future. However, first of all, this is a much too serious topic to game it (therefore, we see only a homeo-pathic increase). And this is effectively what Fitch says. De-faulting on a mortgage loan is hardly an entertaining exer-cise, so it is all about the willingness to pay.

The flavor we want to add is rather on the normative side: we believe that it is a vital element of legal equality to allow for debt forgiveness of individuals due to the mortality of human beings. We do not see any legal justification for pursuing individuals into their grave by attempting to recover on de-faulted debt. Hence, we consider the name applied to the law in Spain as a brilliant fit: “second-chance rule”.

Florian Hillenbrand (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-12961 [email protected]




CBPP3 update As of 13 March 2015, the Eurosystem purchased a total of EUR 56.95bn. Between 6 March and 13 March, purchases totaled EUR 2.8bn. The overall breakdown into primary and secondary market purchases was 19% for primary and 81% for secondary purchases as of 28 February 2015.

CBPP3 PURCHASES (22 OCTOBER UNTIL 13 MARCH)


SPREAD IMPACT SINCE CBPP3 ANNOUNCEMENT ON 4 SEP-TEMBER 2014


Franz Rudolf, CEFA (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-12449 [email protected]

PSPP Update On 9 March 2015, the ECB started buying sovereign, agency and supranational bonds under the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). Similar to the CBPP3, the ECB publishes its weekly purchases on its website (Link).

Weekly figures The figures published under PSPP include sovereign, agen-cy and supranational bonds with settlement on Friday, 13 March 2015. Thus, the published number of EUR 9,751mn outstanding amount under the PSPP includes purchases executed by the ECB on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of last week. This compares to weekly purchases of EUR 2.8bn under the CBPP (see separate story), which also in-clude Friday, 6 March and Thursday, 5 March 2015. We will provide updates on the figures on a weekly basis in this pub-lication, both the weekly figures and the cumulative amounts.

Monthly figures Information on the weighted average residual maturity by issuer residence, separating international organizations and multilateral development banks from other issuers, of the ECB’s PSPP holdings, will be provided by the ECB on a monthly basis. Of course, we will also comment on these figures.

SPREAD PERFORMANCE SINCE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PSPP ON 22 JANUARY 2015


Valentina Stadler (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-16296 [email protected]

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iBoxx € Canada CoverediBoxx € Switzerland Covered

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iBoxx € New Zealand CoverediBoxx € Norway CoverediBoxx € Belgium Covered

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iBoxx € Germany CoverediBoxx € France Covered

iBoxx € Netherlands CoverediBoxx € Covered

iBoxx € Ireland CoverediBoxx € Spain Covered Single Cedulas

iBoxx € Italy CoverediBoxx € Portugal Covered

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https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html




Spanish regions: the North-South divide ■ Regions in the South of Spain had weaker economic

growth than their peers in the North of the country, Fitch underlines in a recent report. Spanish nominal GDP declined by 5.96% in the six years between 2008 and 2013. Economic growth was above average for re-gions in the North of the country, and GDP per capita was also higher for these regions. However, even the best per-forming region’s GDP, that of Navarre, declined by 3.86% during that period.

■ Regional GDP growth varied widely compared with the national average between 2008 and 2013: La Rioja was the closest to Spain, with the disparity versus the country’s performance tending to widen as one approach-es the best (Navarra) and the worst (Asturias) performers. Fitch stated that the contributions of the 17 regions to na-tional GDP have been exceptionally stable over the long term, according to National Statistical Institute (INE) data, with the exception of Madrid, whose contribution in-creased by 118bp between 1995 and 2013.

NORTH & SOUTH: SPAIN’S NOMINAL GDP GROWTH VS SPANISH AVERAGE 2008-13 (%)

Source: Fitch; UniCredit Research

■ Madrid differs: The weighting of the four largest regions in economic terms – Catalonia, Madrid, Andalusia and Va-lencia – in national GDP was unchanged over 2008-2013. Regarding its individual performance, Madrid’s GDP growth pattern was singularly different from that of Spain, while the other three had more similar growth to the coun-try as a whole.

■ The National Statistic Institute (INE) is responsible for calculating regional GDP in Spain, and it starts from the national GDP aggregate estimate. Regional GDP esti-mates are reviewed on an annual basis over a five-year

period, so the final estimate is released in the fifth year. Fitch uses a top down approach in its report, so the re-gional GDP estimates’ total matches national GDP. Fitch sees regional results to be accurate and accepted as a market consensus.

■ The process of calculating GDP is relevant for the eco-nomic and fiscal performance of the regions, however it is a complex issue. This produces uncertainties in light of estimate variations for the same year and region in the standard annual series reviews, with peak differences close to 5% – for instance, in the GDP estimate for Cantabria in 2010 between the series published in 2011 and 2012.

■ Underground economy influences analysis: Aside from regular public accounting, there is a full economic sector concealed from tax collection: the underground economy. Its definition makes measuring it difficult, but recent, in-depth research on Spain quantified it at a re-gional level. Overall, the estimated weight of the under-ground economy in Spain’s GDP in 2012 was 24.6%. The lack of recording of economic transactions means a net loss to public revenues, normally offset by higher fiscal pressure on contributors.

■ Underground economy affects southern regions the most: There is an overall correlation between the hidden economy and economic development, so northern regions in Spain such as Cantabria and La Rioja have registered the lowest values. In contrast, in southern regions such as the Canaries and Extremadura, the informal sector is larger.

■ Our view: While the credit fundamentals of Spanish re-gions differ, they benefit from sovereign support that is equally strong for all regions. To underline this, Spain in-troduced new government facilities only recently as well as cost reductions for regions. Spain’s central government has allocated a total of EUR 38.9bn for the support of re-gional governments in 2015. Furthermore, the central government provides EUR 1bn for local governments. That strong support from the central government is crucial for their creditworthiness. Please see our recent Credit Flash: Spain’s new support measures further strengthen regions.

Robert Vielhaber (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378 12004 [email protected]

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https://www.research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/credit_docs_2015_146185.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5l73IxHdbTjmvpgz9HE-flgv7izzGXoLqA=&T=1

<date>




Covered bonds – market update SPREAD PERFORMANCE OF RECENTLY ISSUED BONDS

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

IBOXX PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

IBOXX SWAP SPREADS


COVERED BOND SWAP SPREADS


SUPPLY TABLE

Name

Date

Type

Volume (EUR mn)

Currency

Maturity

Cpn

Mid-swap

AARB 12-Mar New Issue 500 USD Apr-19 1.875 35bp DKRED 11-Mar New Issue 500 EUR Mar-27 0.5 -9bp NDASS_FIN

10-Mar New Issue 1,000 EUR Jun-20 0.125 -10bp

NDASS_FIN

10-Mar New Issue 1,000 EUR Mar-27 0.625 -2bp

MUNHYP 09-Mar New Issue 750 EUR Mar-25 0.5 -14bp HSBC_FR 04-Mar New Issue 1,000 EUR Mar-22 0.375 -7bp


-2.6-3.4

-1.7-2.8

-6.6-15.6

-11.3-5.1

-9.0-5.3

-4.1-6.4

-10.54.2

3.5

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

DKRED 0.5% Mar-27NDASS_FIN 0.125% Jun-20NDASS_FIN 0.625% Mar-27

MUNHYP 0.5% Mar-25HSBC_FR 0.375% Mar-22

SANTAN_TOTTA 0.754% Mar-22CRUNAV 0.5% Mar-22

SWEDA 0.375% Mar-22NDB_LUX 0.25% Mar-20

UCGIM 0.75% Apr-25HESLAN 0.1% Mar-20

DEXGRP 0.375% Mar-22BPIM 0.75% Mar-22

RFLBNI 0.625% Mar-25BACA 0.75% Feb-25

-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%

Cov

ered

1-3

Eur

ozon

e S

ov. 1

-3

Cov

ered

3-5

Eur

ozon

e S

ov. 3

-5

Cov

ered

5-7

Eur

ozon

e S

ov. 5

-7

Cov

ered

7-1

0

Eur

ozon

e S

ov. 7

-10

5 day 1 month YTD

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

ASW

in b

p

iBoxx € Sovereigns iBoxx € Germany iBoxx € Sub-Sovereigns

iBoxx € Covered iBoxx € Financials

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


ASW

in b

p

iBoxx € Germany Covered iBoxx € France CoverediBoxx € Spain Covered iBoxx € Italy Covered

<date>




Covered bonds – relative value TOP 10 WINNERS

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) 1w diff BKIASM 4.125 24-Mar 89.2 -12.1 BANCAR 3.75 25-Nov 15.3 -11.0 AYTCED 4.75 25-May 78.5 -9.6 CEDTDA 4.25 28-Mar 68.2 -8.0 IMCEDI 4 31-Mar 36.9 -7.2 BKIASM 4 3-Feb 40.4 -7.1 AYTCED 3.75 30-Jun 68.0 -7.1 CEDTDA 4.25 10-Apr 98.8 -5.5 PITCH 5.125 20-Jul 28.2 -5.5 AYTCED 4 24-Mar 33.2 -5.0


TOP 10 LOSERS

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) 1w diff KA 1.625 19-Feb 23.2 23.9 KA 1.625 25-Sep 18.7 21.6 HYNOE 0.75 22-Sep 9.1 16.3 HYNOE 1.75 15-Oct 6.2 12.5 HYNOE 1.625 17-Sep 5.8 10.8 HYNOE 3 9-May 7.3 9.3 BACA 1.875 29-Oct 1.4 7.3 BACA 1.375 26-May 2.0 7.2 BACA 0.5 16-Jan -0.9 7.2 BACA 0.75 25-Feb 9.0 7.2


TOP 10 DEAREST

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) Z-Score INGDIB 2 13-Mar -19.6 -2.1 BKIASM 4.125 24-Mar 89.2 -2.1 BANCAR 3.75 25-Nov 15.3 -1.9 DNBNO 1.125 12-Nov -8.1 -1.9 AYTCED 4.75 25-May 78.5 -1.9 PITCH 5.125 20-Jul 28.2 -1.9 CEDTDA 4.25 28-Mar 68.2 -1.8 BKIASM 4 3-Feb 40.4 -1.8 BNPPCB 0.875 14-Nov -9.7 -1.8 AYTCED 3.75 30-Jun 68.0 -1.8


TOP 10 CHEAPEST

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) Z-Score KA 1.625 25-Sep 18.7 5.8 KA 1.625 19-Feb 23.2 5.8 HYNOE 0.75 22-Sep 9.1 5.1 HYNOE 1.75 15-Oct 6.2 5.0 ERSTBK 3 6-Sep -8.3 4.9 BACA 1.25 14-Oct -1.6 4.8 HYNOE 1.625 17-Sep 5.8 4.8 BACA 2.625 25-Apr -1.9 4.8 BACA 1.375 26-May 2.0 4.5 BACA 0.5 16-Jan -0.9 4.1


Covered bonds – new issues 2015 Issuer

Type

Coupon

Term

Announcement

date

Reoffer MS-spread

(bp)

Amount issued

(EUR bn)

Current trading

(bp) Westpac Banking Corp Australian Covered Bond 0.625 7 8-Jan-15 14 1.25 2 Landesbank Baden-Württemberg Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.1 4 12-Jan-15 -16 0.5 -23 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Cédula Hipotecaria 0.75 7 12-Jan-15 25 1.25 -4 Compagnie de Financement Foncier Mortgage Obligation Foncière 0.75 10 12-Jan-15 7 1 -9 WL BANK AG Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.875 15 13-Jan-15 -1 0.5 -9 Credit Mutuel CIC Obligations de Financement de l'Habitat 0.5 7 13-Jan-15 3 1 -13 Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna SC

OBG 0.875 7 13-Jan-15 42 0.75 3

Bank of Ireland Mortgage Bank Mortgage ACS 0.5 5 13-Jan-15 20 0.75 -4 KBC Belgian Covered Bond 0.45 7 14-Jan-15 2 1 -8 Deutsche Genossenschafts-Hypothekenbank

Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.25 6 14-Jan-15 -12 0.5 -25

Intesa SanPaolo OBG 0.625 7 14-Jan-15 25 1 -1 ANZ National Kiwi Covered 0.625 7 14-Jan-15 19 0.75 2 Cajas Rurales Unidas Cédula Hipotecaria 1.25 7 15-Jan-15 90 0.75 35 Caisse Francaise de Financement Local

Public Obligation Foncière 1.25 20 15-Jan-15 19 0.5 9

Bank of Montreal Canadian Covered Bond 0.25 5 15-Jan-15 6 1.5 -8 Commerzbank Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.25 7 19-Jan-15 -10 0.5 -19 National Bank of Canada Canadian Covered Bond 0.5 7 19-Jan-15 14 1 -4

<date>




Issuer

Type

Coupon

Term

Announcement

date

Reoffer MS-spread

(bp)

Amount issued

(EUR bn)

Current trading

(bp) Caixa Geral de Depositos Portuguese Covered Bonds 1 7 20-Jan-15 64 1 22 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Canadian Covered Bond 0.25 5 21-Jan-15 5 1 -7 Bankinter SA Cédula Hipotecaria 1 10 27-Jan-15 38 1 6 AIB Mortgage Bank Mortgage ACS 0.625 7 27-Jan-15 27 0.75 0 Erste Bank Austrian Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.75 10 29-Jan-15 6 0.5 4 Belfius Bank Belgian Covered Bond 0.75 10 3-Feb-15 7 1 -2 HSH Nordbank AG Ship Pfandbriefe issued 0.5 3 3-Feb-15 33 0.5 26 BPCE Obligations de Financement de l'Habitat 0.5 7.7 3-Feb-15 1 0.75 -11 Compagnie de Financement Foncier Mortgage Obligation Foncière 0.125 5 10-Feb-15 -8 1 -14 National Australia Bank Australian Covered Bond 0.875 12 11-Feb-15 18 1 9 Norddeutsche Landesbank Public Pfandbrief 0.025 4 12-Feb-15 -18 0.5 -21 UniCredit Bank Austria Austrian Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.75 10 18-Feb-15 3 0.5 7 Société Générale SFH Obligations de Financement de l'Habitat 0.125 5 18-Feb-15 -10 0.5 -16 Raiffeisen Landesbank Niederö-stereich

Fundierte Bankschuldverschreibung - Hypotheken

0.625 10 23-Feb-15 1 0.5 5

Dexia Kommunalbank Deutschland AG Public Pfandbrief 0.375 7 24-Feb-15 -7 0.5 -13 Banco Popolare SCRL OBG 0.75 7.1 24-Feb-15 28 1 18 Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Public Pfandbrief 0.1 5 25-Feb-15 -17 1 -21 Unicredit Programm 2 OBG 0.75 10.2 26-Feb-15 18 1 13 Nord LB Covered Finance Bank Public Lettre de Gage 0.25 5 2-Mar-15 8 0.5 -1 Caja Rural de Navarra Cédula Hipotecaria 0.5 7 3-Mar-15 14 0.5 3 Swedbank Hypotek Säkerställda Obligationer 0.375 7 3-Mar-15 -5 1 -10 HSBC France Obligations de Financement de l'Habitat 0.375 7 4-Mar-15 -7 1 -14 Banco Santander Totta Portuguese Covered Bonds 0.754 7 4-Mar-15 31 0.75 15 Münchener Hypothekenbank Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.5 10 9-Mar-15 -14 0.75 -17 Nordea Bank Finland Finnish Covered Bond 0.125 5.3 10-Mar-15 -10 1 -13 Nordea Bank Finland Finnish Covered Bond 0.625 12 10-Mar-15 -2 1 -4 Deutsche Kreditbank Mortgage Pfandbrief 0.5 12 11-Mar-15 -9 0.5 -12


<date>




Covered bonds – market snapshot TOTAL SUPPLY BY COUNTRY IN EUR BN


SUPPLY YTD BY COUNTRY


TOTAL SUPPLY BY SUPPLY TYPE IN EUR BN


SUPPLY YTD BY SUPPLY TYPE


TOTAL SUPPLY BY MONTH


SUPPLY YTD BY MONTH


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q 2

015

4Q 2

014

3Q 2

014

2Q 2

014

1Q 2

014

4Q 2

013

3Q 2

013

2Q 2

013

1Q 2

013

4Q 2

012

3Q 2

012

2Q 2

012

1Q 2

012

4Q 2

011

3Q 2

011

2Q 2

011

EU

R b

n

Germany France SpainUnited Kingdom Italy SwedenNetherlands Ireland Others Germany

16.8%

France16.1%

Italy10.5%

Spain9.8%

Canada9.8%

Australia6.3%

Finland5.6%

Belgium5.6%

Others19.6%

35.5

26.0

20.123

.7

40.7

21.3

19.922

.927.6

15.322

.0

15.4

0.3

1.9

1.52.

5

1.8

1.0

1.42.

7

2.6

0.7

1.6

3.8

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1Q 2

015

4Q 2

014

3Q 2

014

2Q 2

014

1Q 2

014

4Q 2

013

3Q 2

013

2Q 2

013

1Q 2

013

4Q 2

012

3Q 2

012

2Q 2

012

EU

R b

n

Tap New Issue

New Issue99.3%

Tap0.7%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

EU

R b

n

2012 2013 2014 2015

March MTD19.6%

February27.3%

January53.1%

<date>




PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING BONDS BY COUNTRY


PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING BONDS BY COUNTRY

Country

Total Volume

in EUR bn

No. of

Bonds

Avg. Size

in EUR bn

WA mod. dur.

in years France 225.0 149 1.5 4.1 Spain 176.6 118 1.5 3.5 Germany 107.5 142 0.8 3.0 United Kingdom 68.3 48 1.4 3.1 Italy 59.5 57 1.0 3.6 Netherlands 40.1 27 1.5 3.9 Norway 37.2 32 1.2 3.1 Sweden 32.2 29 1.1 2.7 Finland 24.4 22 1.1 3.1 Canada 22.8 19 1.2 4.1 Others 113.6 126 1.0 3.7


MARKET SHARE OF TOP 10 ISSUERS


MARKET SHARE OF TOP 10 ISSUERS

Issuer

Total volume

in EUR bn

No. of bonds

Avg. size

in EUR bn

WA mod. dur.

in years CRH 44.2 19 2.3 4.2 CFF 41.3 24 1.7 4.3 CAFFIL 30.7 22 1.4 3.8 AYTCED 28.1 15 1.9 3.6 CABKSM 22.7 14 1.6 3.2 BBVASM 21.8 12 1.8 3.3 DNBNO 21.3 13 1.6 3.0 BPCECB 20.6 14 1.5 4.7 SANTAN 19.8 13 1.5 4.2 INTNED 19.1 11 1.7 3.6 Others 637.7 612 1.2 3.5


DISTRIBUTION BY MODIFIED DURATION


TOP 10 REDEMPTION MONTHS

Month Total volume in EUR bn No. of bonds Jan-2017 29.4 22 Jun-2015 25.7 20 Jan-2022 25.3 23 Jan-2016 22.1 15 Mar-2017 20.0 15 Jan-2021 19.9 15 Oct-2016 19.7 14 Apr-2017 19.1 13 Sep-2015 18.5 14 Mar-2016 17.9 12 Oct-2015 17.9 12


France24.8%

Spain19.5%

Germany11.8%

United Kingdom7.5%

Italy6.6%

Netherlands4.4%

Norway4.1%

Sweden3.5%

Others17.7%

4.9%

4.6%

3.4%

3.1%

2.5%

2.4%

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

70.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

CRH

CFF

CAFFIL

AYTCED

CABKSM

BBVASM

DNBNO

BPCECB

SANTAN

INTNED

Others

<2 YRS35.6%

2-4 YRS21.0%

4-6 YRS21.6%

>6 YRS21.7%

<date>




SSA – market update SPREAD PERFORMANCE OF RECENTLY ISSUED BONDS

Source: Bloomberg, iBoxx, UniCredit Research

IBOXX PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW


IBOXX SWAP SPREADS


SSA SWAP SPREADS


SUPPLY TABLE

ISIN Name Issue Date Volume (EUR mn) Maturity Cpn Mid-swap (bp) XS1198102052 MEX 06-Mar 1,250 Mar-24 1.625 n.a. XS1198103456 MEX 06-Mar 1,250 Mar-45 3 190 FR0122856851 UNEDIC 05-Mar 1,250 Mar-20 0.125 n.a. ES0000101651 MADRID 27-Feb 1,400 Apr-25 1.826 n.a. FR0012537124 UNEDIC 17-Feb 3,000 Feb-25 0.625 n.a. EU000A1G0DD4 EFSF 17-Feb 1,500 Feb-45 1.2 n.a. XS1186684137 RESFER 12-Feb 1,250 May-30 1.125 n.a. DE000A14J421 LANDER 05-Feb 1,500 Feb-25 0.5 -9 XS1183208328 EIB 05-Feb 1,000 Mar-31 1 -3 XS1180277524 ICO 04-Feb 1,000 Dec-17 0.5 40.3


-12.4-8.7

-24.2-26.2

-27.5-17.7-18.1

-12.7-33.6

-11.6-21.4

-44.1-12.6

-14.9-26.6

-50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0

MEX 3% Mar-45LANDER 0.5% Feb-25

EIB 1% Mar-31ICO 0.5% Dec-17

ADIFAL 1.875% Jan-25CADES 0.5% May-23ONT 0.875% Jan-25

DEXGRP 0.625% Jan-22EFSF 0.5% Jan-23

BADWUR 0.625% Jan-25Q 0.875% Jan-25CDEP 1% Jan-18

LBANK 0.25% Nov-19HESSEN 0.875% Dec-24

OBND 1% Nov-24

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

5 day 1 month YTD

iBoxx € Sovereigns iBoxx € Germany iBoxx € Sub-SovereignsiBoxx € Covered iBoxx € Financials

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


ASW

in b

p

iBoxx € Sovereigns iBoxx € Germany iBoxx € Sub-Sovereigns

iBoxx € Covered iBoxx € Financials

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


ASW

in b

p

iBoxx € Agencies iBoxx € RegionsiBoxx € Public Banks iBoxx € Supranationals

<date>




SSA – relative value TOP 10 WINNERS

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) 1w diff EIB 4 15-Oct -26.0 -13.0 EIB 3.625 14-Mar -18.5 -10.9 EU 3.375 4-Apr -21.5 -9.4 EIB 3.5 15-Apr -32.0 -9.3 EU 3.75 4-Apr -20.4 -9.0 EIB 4 15-Apr -29.2 -8.5 EIB 2.75 15-Mar -19.5 -8.2 EU 2.5 4-Nov -33.5 -8.2 EIB 2.625 15-Mar -22.8 -8.0 EIB 3 14-Oct -23.2 -7.9


TOP 10 LOSERS

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) 1w diff ICO 4.75 30-Apr 44.7 10.1 DBHNGR 4.875 12-Mar 6.4 9.7 FRPTT 2.75 26-Nov 17.1 7.2 ICO 4.375 20-May 34.1 6.2 RESFER 1.125 25-May 15.8 5.9 OSEOFI 2.75 25-Oct 2.5 5.8 RESFER 3.125 25-Oct 13.8 5.8 FRPTT 4.375 26-Jun 20.7 5.7 RESFER 4.375 2-Jun -7.2 5.6 CADES 4.25 25-Apr -20.6 5.5


TOP 10 DEAREST

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) Z-Score KFW 5.5 22-Jan -25.3 -2.4 EIB 4 15-Oct -26.0 -2.4 EFSF 3 4-Sep -18.6 -2.3 EU 3.375 4-Apr -21.5 -2.3 EIB 4 15-Apr -29.2 -2.3 EIB 3.625 14-Mar -18.5 -2.3 COE 1.75 24-Apr -38.5 -2.3 EIB 2.75 15-Mar -19.5 -2.2 EU 3.75 4-Apr -20.4 -2.2 EIB 3 14-Oct -23.2 -2.2


TOP 10 CHEAPEST

Ticker Cpn Mat ASW (bp) Z-Score DBHNGR 4.875 12-Mar 6.4 2.5 BERGER 0.625 15-Mar -13.7 1.7 DBHNGR 4.75 14-Mar 1.4 1.6 ASFING 4.5 16-Oct -15.6 1.4 CCCI 0.5 19-May -10.9 1.3 LANDER 2.625 18-Mar -12.5 1.3 LBANK 3.5 4-Jul -15.6 1.2 NRW 0.625 18-Jul -14.3 1.1 NRW 0.75 13-Apr -14.5 1.1 ERSTAA 0.5 4-Nov -13.4 1.1


SSA – new issues 2015 Issuer

Sector

Coupon

Term

Announcement

date

Reoffer MS-spread

(bp)

Amount issued

(EUR mn)

Current trading

(bp) European Union Supranationals 1.375 14.9 5-Nov-14 3 1,160 -32 ÖBB Infrastruktur Bau AG Agencies 1 10 10-Nov-14 8 1,000 -18 L-Bank Landeskreditbank Baden-Württemberg Agencies 0.25 5 18-Nov-14 -11 1,000 -24 Land Hessen Regions 0.875 10 18-Nov-14 -4 1,000 -19 3CIF Other Sub-Sovereigns 0.25 4 13-Nov-14 n.a. 1,250 -16 Cassa Depositi e Prestiti Agencies 1 3.2 19-Nov-14 70 1,000 26 Land Nordrhein-Westfalen Regions 1 10.1 20-Nov-14 n.a. 1,000 -17 ICO Agencies 0.375 1.9 25-Nov-14 n.a. 1,500 7 Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten NV Public Banks 0.375 7 7-Jan-15 n.a. 1,500 -21 Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau Agencies 0.625 10 8-Jan-15 n.a. 3,000 -36 Province of Quebec Regions 0.875 10 8-Jan-15 19 1,750 -2 FMS-WM Agencies 0.125 5.2 8-Jan-15 n.a. 1,500 -32 Land Baden-Württemberg Regions 0.625 10 9-Jan-15 -7 1,000 -19 EFSF Supranationals 0.5 8 13-Jan-15 -3 3,000 -37 Province of Ontario Regions 0.875 10 12-Jan-15 15 1,250 -3 Dexia Kommunalbank Other Sub-Sovereigns 0.625 7 12-Jan-15 18 1,750 5 CADES Agencies 0.5 8.3 14-Jan-15 -0.9 3,000 -19 Adif Alta Velocidad Agencies 1.875 10 21-Jan-15 119.4 1,000 92 ICO Agencies 0.5 2.9 27-Jan-15 40.3 1,000 14

<date>




Issuer

Sector

Coupon

Term

Announcement

date

Reoffer MS-spread

(bp)

Amount issued

(EUR mn)

Current trading

(bp) Gemeinsame Deutsche Bundeslaender Regions 0.5 10 29-Jan-15 -9 1,500 -18 European Investment Bank Supranationals 1 16.1 29-Jan-15 -3 1,000 -27 Reseau Ferre de France Other Sub-Sovereigns 1.125 15.3 3-Feb-15 n.a. 1,250 14 EFSF Supranationals 1.2 30 10-Feb-15 n.a. 1,500 -11 UNEDIC Agencies 0.625 10 9-Feb-15 n.a. 3,000 -8 Comunidad de Madrid Regions 1.826 10.2 18-Feb-15 n.a. 1,400 93 UNEDIC Agencies 0.125 5 26-Feb-15 n.a. 1,250 -17 United Mexican States Other Sovereigns 1.625 9 26-Feb-15 n.a. 1,250 98 United Mexican States Other Sovereigns 3 30 26-Feb-15 190 1,250 178


<date>




SSA – market snapshot OVERALL OUTSTANDING IBOXX VOLUMES


QUARTERLY ISSUANCE SSA


OUTSTANDING VOLUMES BY ISSUER: AGENCIES/SUPRAS


MONTHLY SUPPLY VOLUMES: AGENCIES/SUPRAS


OUTSTANDING VOLUMES BY ISSUER: REGIONS


MONTHLY SUPPLY VOLUMES: REGIONS


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

iBox

x Vo

lum

e O

utst

andi

ng (E

UR

bn)

Other Sub Sov. Guar. Fin. Other Sub Sov. Non-Fin.Supranationals RegionsPublic Banks Other SovereignsAgencies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

iBox

x Is

suan

ce V

olum

e (E

UR

bn)

Public Banks Regions Supras Agencies

158.

113

3.8

131.

571

.748

.526

.525

.024

.720

.115

.113

.112

.910

.57.

86.

45.

24.

54.

53.

02.

82.

52.

02.

01.

51.

01.

01.

01.

01.

01.

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

EIB

EFS

FK

FWC

AD

ES

EU

FMS

WE

RE

SM ICO

UN

ED

ICFA

DE

OB

ND

AG

FRN

CN

RW

BK

RE

NTE

NO

SEO

FIIB

RD

LBA

NK

CO

EC

NA

ER

STA

AFR

OB

AD

IFA

LC

DC

EPS

ASI

AC

DE

PE

UR

OF

EIB

KO

RJF

MK

BN SEK

iBox

x Vo

lum

e O

utst

andi

ng (E

UR

bn)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Issu

ance

in E

UR

bn

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

31.8

17.3

12.8

12.4

11.0

8.8

8.0

7.5

7.1

5.0

3.3

3.0

3.0

2.1

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

NR

W

LAN

DER

HE

SSE

N

NIE

SA

BER

GE

R

MA

DR

ID Q

ON

T

BAD

WU

R

SAC

HA

N

RH

IPA

L

BR

ABU

R

BU

LAB

O

AN

DA

L

CO

MIL

A

RO

MC

TY

FLEM

SH

BAY

ER

N

iBox

x Vo

lum

e O

utst

andi

ng (E

UR

bn)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

<date>




IBOXX SPREAD PERFORMANCE


SSA UNIVERSE BY DURATION


GERMAN STATES CREDIT CURVES


GERMAN AGENCIES CREDIT CURVES


EUROPEAN SUPRAS CREDIT CURVES


FRENCH CREDIT CURVES


-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0

Agencies

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-60

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Size = Outstanding Volume

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CADES AGFRNC RESFER SNCF UNEDIC



UniCredit Research page 19

Disclaimer Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether without notice. This analysis is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security, (ii) is neither intended as such an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security nor (iii) as an advertisement thereof. The investment possibilities discussed in this report may not be suitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon or in the context of their overall financial situation. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than they invested. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. Further-more, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. In particular, the risks associated with an investment in the financial, money market or investment instru-ment or security under discussion are not explained in their entirety. This information is given without any warranty on an "as is" basis and should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining individual advice. Investors must make their own de-termination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal, fiscal and financial position. As this document does not qualify as an investment recommendation or as a direct investment recommendation, neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Investors are urged to contact their bank's investment advisor for individual explanations and advice. Neither UniCredit Bank nor any of their respective directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This analysis is being distributed by electronic and ordinary mail to professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this publication, and may not be redistributed, reproduced or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Responsibility for the content of this publication lies with: a) UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), Am Tucherpark 16, 80538 Munich, Germany, (also responsible for the distribution pursuant to §34b WpHG). The company belongs to UniCredit Group. Regulatory authority: “BaFin“ – Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt, Germany. b) UniCredit Bank AG London Branch (UniCredit Bank London), Moor House, 120 London Wall, London EC2Y 5ET, United Kingdom. Regulatory authority: “BaFin“ – Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt, Germany and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Con-duct Authority, 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS, United Kingdom and Prudential Regulation Authority 20 Moorgate, London, EC2R 6DA, United Kingdom. Further details regarding our regulatory status are available on request. c) UniCredit Bank AG Hong Kong Branch (UniCredit Bank Hong Kong), 25/F Man Yee Building, 68 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Regulatory authority: Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 55th Floor, Two International Financial Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong d) UniCredit Bank AG Singapore Branch (UniCredit Bank Singapore), Prudential Tower, 30 Cecil Street, #25-01, Singapore 049712 Regulatory authority: Monetary Authority of Singapore, 10 Shenton Way MAS Building, Singapore 079117 e) UniCredit Bank AG Tokyo Branch (UniCredit Tokyo), Otemachi 1st Square East Tower 18/F, 1-5-1 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, 100-0004 Tokyo, Japan Regulatory authority: Financial Services Agency, The Japanese Government, 3-2-1 Kasumigaseki Chiyoda-ku Tokyo, 100-8967 Japan, The Central Common Government Offic-es No. 7. POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS 3CIF 4; A2A 3, 4, 7; Aareal Bank 3, 4; ABB 7; ABN Amro Bank 3, 4; Accor 3; Acea 3, 4, 7; Achmea 4; adidas 4; Aeroporti di Roma 7; Airbus Group 3, 4, 7; Aktia 4; Akzo Nobel 3; Alcatel 4, 7; Allianz 1b, 7; Allied Irish Banks 3; Alstom 7; Amadeus IT 4; Amgen 3; ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited 4; ArcelorMittal 3, 4, 7; Areva 4, 7; ASB Bank 4; ASFINAG 4; Assicurazioni Generali 3, 4, 7; Astaldi 3, 4, 5, 7; AT&T 3; Atlantia 3, 4, 7; Auchan 4; AXA 3, 4, 7; Banca Carige 2, 3, 4; Banca MPS 3, 4, 7; Banca P. Emilia Romagna 3, 4; Banca Popolare di Milano 4; Banca Popolare di Vicenza 4; Banco de Sabadell 3; Banco Espirito Santo 3, 4; Banco Popolare Scarl 3, 4; Banco Popular Espanol 3, 4; Bank für Tirol und Vorarlberg 1a, 6a; Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten NV 4; Bank of America 3; Bank of Montreal 3, 4; Bank of New Zealand 4; Bankia 4; Bankinter 3, 4; Banque PSA 3; Banques Populaires Covered Bond 4; Barclays 3; BASF 3, 7; BAT 7; Bayer 3, 4; Bayerische Landesbodenkreditanstalt 4; BayernLB 4; BBVA 3, 4; BCP 3; Belfius Bank 4; Berlin-Hannoversche Hyp. 4; BHP Billiton 7; Bilfinger 4; BKS Bank 1a, 6a; BMW 3, 7; BNP Paribas Covered Bonds 4; Bouygues 3, 7; BPCE 4; BPCE SFH 4; Bremer LB 4; Brenntag 4; BRFkredit 4; BT 3; Bund Laender Anleihe 4; Buzzi Unicem 3, 4, 7; CADES 4; CAFFIL 4; Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat 4; CaixaBank 4; Caja Mediterraneo 3; Caja Rural de Navarra 4; Cap Gemini 3; Carlsberg 4; Carnival 7; Carrefour 3, 7; Cassa Depositi e Prestiti 4, 7; Cerved 4; CEZ 3, 4, 7; CIF Euromortgage 4; Citigroup 3, 4; City of Milan 7; City of Rome 7; Commerzbank 3, 4; Commonwealth Bank of Australia 4; Compagnie de Financement Foncier 4; Continental 3; CORES 4; Council of Europe Development Bank 4; Coventry Building Society 4; Crédit Agricole 4; Credit Mutuel Arkea 4; Credit Suisse 4; Credito Valtellinese 4; CRH 4; Daimler 3, 4, 7; Danske Bank 3, 4; Deutsche Annington 4; Deutsche Bahn 3; Deutsche Bank 2, 3, 4; Deutsche Genossenschafts-Hypothekenbank 4; Deutsche Hypothekenbank Hannover 4; Deutsche Kreditbank 4; Deutsche Pfand-briefbank 4; Deutsche Post 7; Deutsche Postbank 3, 4; Deutsche Telekom 7; DNB 3, 4; Duerr 4; DZ Bank 3; E.ON 3; EDF 3, 4, 7; EDP 3; EI Towers 4, 5, 7; Eika BoligKreditt 3, 4; EnBW 4; Enel 3, 4, 7; ENI 3, 4, 7; Ericsson 3; Erste Abwicklungsanstalt 3, 4; Eureko 4; Eurohypo AG 3; European Investment Bank 3, 4; European Union 3, 4; Eustream 4; EVN 3; Evonik Industries 7; EWE 3; Exor 3, 4, 7; FCA 4, 7; FCE Bank 4; FGA Capital 4; Finmeccanica 3, 4, 7; FMS-WM 3, 4; Freistaat Bayern 3, 4; Freistaat Thüringen 4; Fresenius 2, 4, 7; FROB 4; Gamenet 7; Gas Natural 7; Gazprom 3, 7; GDF Suez 3, 4, 7; GE (industrial) 3, 7; Gemeinsame Deutsche Bundeslaender 4; General Electric Capital Corporation 3, 7; Glencore 7; Goldman Sachs 3, 4; Gtech 3, 4, 7; Helaba 4; Hera 3, 4, 7; HETA Asset Resolution 4; Holcim 7; HP Pelzer 4; HSBC 3, 4; HSH Nordbank 4; HYPO NOE 4; Hypo Tirol 4; Hypo Vorarlberg 4; Hypothekenbank Frankfurt 3; HypoVereinsbank 3, 4; Ibercaja 4; Iberdrola 3, 4, 7; IBM 7; ICO 4; IKB 3; Imperial Tobacco 4, 7; ING 4; ING-DiBa 4; Intesa Sanpaolo 3, 4, 7; Investitionsbank Berlin 4; Italcementi 2, 4, 7; Japan Tobacco 7; JPMorgan Chase 4; Kering 3, 7; Kommunalkredit Austria 4; Kommunekredit 4; KPN 3; Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau 3, 4; Kutxabank 4; L-Bank Landeskreditbank Baden-Württemberg 4; La Banque Postale SFH 4; Land Baden-Württemberg 3, 4; Land Berlin 3, 4; Land Brandenburg 4; Land Hamburg 4; Land Hessen 3, 4; Land Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 4; Land Nordrhein-Westfalen 3, 4; Land Rheinland-Pfalz 4; Land Sach-sen-Anhalt 4; Land Schleswig-Holstein 4; Landesbank Berlin 3; Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank 3, 4; LBBW 3, 4; LFA Foerderbank Bayern 7; Lighthouse (Seat Pagine) 4, 7; Linde 7; Lloyds Banking Group 3; Lukoil 7; Luxottica 3, 4, 7; LVMH 3; Magyar Eximbank 4; Manutencoop 7; Mediobanca 1a, 3, 4, 6a; Merck KGaA 4, 7; METRO 4, 7; MOL 1a; Morgan Stanley 3; Münchener Hypothekenbank 3, 4; Munich Re 7; National Australia Bank 4; National Grid 3; Nationwide 4; Nederlandse Waterschapsbank 4; Nestlé 7; NIBC Bank NV 4; NN Group 4; Nokia 3; Nord/LB 3, 4; Nordea 3, 4; Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) 4; Norilsk Nickel 3, 7; Novartis 3; Novatek 7; NRW.BANK 4; Nykredit 4; ÖBB Infra-struktur Bau AG 4; Oberbank 1a, 6a; Oester. Volksbanken 4; OMV 3, 4, 7; Orange 3; Orange Polska 3; Österreichische Kontrollbank 1a, 4, 6a; OTP 4; OTP Mortgage Bank 4; Pemex 3; Pernod Ricard 4; Peugeot 3, 4, 7; Pfizer 3; PGE 3, 4; PGNiG 3; Philip Morris 3; Piaggio 4, 7; Piemonte Regione 7; PKN Orlen 3, 4; Pohjola Bank 4; Poste Vita 4; Prada 7; Procter & Gamble 3; Prysmian 3, 7; Raiffeisen Bank Int. 3, 4; Raiffeisen-Landesbank Steiermark 4; RBS 3, 4; RCI Banque 3; Region of Lazio 7; Region of Umbria 7; Renault 3; Repsol 3, 7; Rexam 7; Rhön Klinikum 3, 4; RLB Niederoe.-Wien 4; Roche 7; Rosneft 4, 7; Royal Bank of Canada 3, 4; RWE 3, 7; Saarland 3, 4; Saint-Gobain 3, 4, 7; Sanofi-Aventis 3, 7; Santander Consumer Finance 4; SAP 3, 7; SBAB 4; Schaeffler 4; Seat Pagine 4, 7; SEB 3, 4; Severstal 3, 7; SFEF 4; SIAS 4, 7; Siemens 3, 7; Sixt 3; Snai 4, 7; Snam 3, 7; Société Générale 3, 4; Societe Generale SFH 4; SPP-Distribucia 4; Stabilus 4; Stadtsparkasse Köln 4; Standard Chartered 4; Südzucker 7; Suez Environnement 3; Svenska Handelsbanken 3, 4; Swedbank 3, 4; Swedbank Hypotek AB 4; Swiss Re 4, 7; Swisscom 4, 7; Syngenta 4; TeamSystem 4; Technip 7; Telecom Italia 3, 4, 7; Telefonica 7; Telekom Austria 3, 4; TeliaSonera 3; Terna 3, 7; ThyssenKrupp 3; Toronto-Dominion Bank 4; Total 7; TUI 4; UBI Banca 3, 4; UBS 3, 4; UNEDIC 4; Unicaja Banco 4; UniCredit 2, 3; UniCredit Bank Austria 3, 4; Unilever 3; Unipol 3, 4, 7; Vakifbank 4; Veolia Environnement 3, 7; Verbund 3, 4; Vestas 3; Vimpelcom 4, 7; Vinci 4, 7; Vivendi 3; Vodafone 3, 4, 7; Volkswagen 3, 4, 7; Wells Fargo & Co 3, 4; Westdeutsche Immobilienbank 4; Westfälische Landschaft Bodenkreditbank AG 4; Westpac 4; Westpac New Zealand 4; WiBank 4; Wienerberger 3, 4; Wind 4; Xella 4; Yorkshire Building Society 4; ZFS 7 Key 1a: UniCredit Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it (pursuant to relevant domestic law) owns at least 2% of the capital stock of the company. Key 1b: The analyzed company owns at least 2% of the capital stock of UniCredit Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it (pursuant to relevant domestic law). Key 2: UniCredit Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it (pursuant to relevant domestic law) belonged to a syndicate that has acquired securities or any related derivatives of the analyzed company within the twelve months preceding publication, in connection with any publicly disclosed offer of securities of the analyzed company, or in any related derivatives. Key 3: UniCredit Bank AG and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant domestic law) administers the securities issued by the analyzed company on the stock exchange or on the market by quoting bid and ask prices (i.e. acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the analyzed company or in any related derivatives). Key 4: The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant domestic law) concluded an agreement on services in connection with investment banking transactions in the last 12 months, in return for which the Bank received a consideration or promise of consideration. Key 5: The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant domestic law) have concluded an agreement on the preparation of analyses.




Key 6a: Employees of UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch and/or members of the Board of Directors of UniCredit (pursuant to relevant domestic law) are members of the Board of Directors of the Issuer. Members of the Board of Directors of the Issuer hold office in the Board of Directors of UniCredit (pursuant to relevant domestic law). Key 6b: The analyst is on the supervisory/management board of the company they cover. Key 7: UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch and/or other Italian banks belonging to the UniCredit Group (pursuant to relevant domestic law) extended significant amounts of credit facilities to the Issuer. RECOMMENDATIONS, RATINGS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY Company Date Rec. Company Date Rec. Company Date Rec. ABESM 02/03/2015 Marketweight FCAIM 07/01/2015 Buy REESM 07/08/2014 Marketweight ABESM 02/03/2015 Restricted FCAIM 05/12/2014 Restricted REESM 04/06/2014 Underweight ABESM 02/03/2015 Restricted FCAIM 09/09/2014 Buy RHIGIM 01/12/2014 Buy ABESM 06/05/2014 Marketweight FCAIM 31/07/2014 Hold RHIGIM 16/09/2014 Hold ABGSM 17/09/2014 Hold FCAIM 10/07/2014 Restricted RHMGR 20/03/2014 Sell ABIBB 14/10/2014 Underweight FCAIM 19/05/2014 Hold RIFP 06/11/2014 Overweight ACAFP 10/03/2015 Restricted FCAIM 16/04/2014 Buy RIFP 17/09/2014 Restricted ACEIM 04/09/2014 Marketweight FCE 03/02/2015 Restricted ROSW 18/02/2015 Restricted ACEIM 29/07/2014 Overweight FCE 15/07/2014 Marketweight ROTPHA 27/03/2014 Hold ACEIM 08/07/2014 Restricted FMEGR 01/07/2014 Hold RSHB 22/09/2014 Sell ADRBID 10/09/2014 Hold FREGR 07/04/2014 Hold RTE 05/02/2015 Marketweight ADSGR 11/03/2015 Hold FREGR 20/03/2014 Restricted RURAIL 19/01/2015 Sell AEMSPA 18/02/2015 Restricted FRFP 02/07/2014 Overweight RURAIL 10/06/2014 Hold AIRFP 14/11/2014 Marketweight FRFP 24/04/2014 Marketweight SABLN 08/07/2014 Overweight AIRFP 20/10/2014 Restricted FTEAU 30/01/2015 Hold SAPGR 02/02/2015 Marketweight AIRFP 08/05/2014 Marketweight FTEAU 01/12/2014 Sell SAPSJ 10/03/2015 Restricted AIRFP 10/04/2014 Restricted FTEAU 10/09/2014 Hold SAZGR 10/10/2014 Hold ALBALN 14/10/2014 Buy FTEAU 07/07/2014 Sell SDFGR 19/01/2015 Overweight ALBALN 07/05/2014 Hold FTEAU 29/05/2014 Hold SESGFP 02/02/2015 Overweight ALFARU 19/01/2015 Hold FUMVFH 07/08/2014 Marketweight SEVFP 30/07/2014 Underweight ALOFP 25/04/2014 Marketweight GAMENT 18/02/2015 Sell SEVFP 16/06/2014 Restricted ALTICE 17/02/2015 Buy GASSM 05/02/2015 Marketweight SEVFP 24/04/2014 Underweight ALTICE 23/01/2015 Restricted GASSM 14/01/2015 Restricted SEVFP 10/04/2014 Restricted ALTICE 16/12/2014 Buy GASSM 15/10/2014 Marketweight SGOFP 20/10/2014 Underweight AMSSM 07/08/2014 Marketweight GAZPRU 19/01/2015 Overweight SGOFP 30/04/2014 Marketweight AMSSM 04/06/2014 Restricted GAZPRU 02/05/2014 Marketweight SHAEFF 23/06/2014 Buy AMXLMM 09/07/2014 Underweight GBFGR 06/11/2014 Underweight SHAEFF 06/05/2014 Restricted ANNGR 30/10/2014 Marketweight GLENLN 03/03/2015 Overweight SIBNEF 19/01/2015 Marketweight ANTOLN 01/12/2014 Hold GLENLN 02/03/2015 Buy SIBNEF 19/05/2014 Overweight ANTOLN 01/04/2014 Buy GMFIN 20/10/2014 Hold SIBUR 19/01/2015 Sell ARRFP 21/10/2014 Underweight GMKNRM 19/01/2015 Buy SIBUR 25/04/2014 Hold ARRFP 23/04/2014 Marketweight GPBRU 22/09/2014 Sell SISIM 30/07/2014 Overweight ASML 23/07/2014 Overweight GSK 28/04/2014 Underweight SKYLN 16/02/2015 Marketweight ASSGEN 06/11/2014 Restricted GSZFP 31/07/2014 Marketweight SKYLN 02/02/2015 Underweight ASSGEN 02/07/2014 Marketweight GSZFP 10/04/2014 Restricted SKYLN 05/12/2014 Marketweight ASSGEN 04/06/2014 Restricted GTKIM 10/03/2015 Hold SKYLN 17/11/2014 Restricted ASTIM 08/05/2014 Buy HBMGR 26/03/2014 Hold SKYLN 02/10/2014 Marketweight ATCOA 21/10/2014 Marketweight HELLA 02/10/2014 Overweight SNAIM 21/10/2014 Hold ATLIM 13/02/2015 Restricted HELLA 07/08/2014 Marketweight SPPDIS 05/03/2015 Marketweight AVAN 28/05/2014 Hold HELLA 02/07/2014 Overweight SPPEUS 05/03/2015 Marketweight AXASA 02/06/2014 Marketweight HERIM 07/08/2014 Marketweight SPPEUS 05/02/2015 Restricted AXASA 15/05/2014 Restricted HERIM 19/06/2014 Restricted SRENVX 06/11/2014 Marketweight BABLN 06/11/2014 Overweight HETAR 20/11/2014 Underweight SRENVX 27/08/2014 Restricted BACRED 07/11/2014 Restricted HETAR 22/09/2014 no recommenda-

tion SRGIM 21/01/2015 Restricted

BANMAR 28/04/2014 Restricted HETAR 27/05/2014 Marketweight SRGIM 06/11/2014 no recommenda-tion

BATSLN 10/03/2015 Restricted HPLGR 20/11/2014 Restricted SSELN 04/06/2014 Underweight BAYNGR 05/12/2014 Marketweight HTZ 10/06/2014 Sell STLNSW 19/01/2015 Hold BAYNGR 07/11/2014 Restricted IBESM 05/03/2015 Marketweight STLNSW 22/05/2014 Buy BAYNGR 31/07/2014 Marketweight IBESM 14/01/2015 Restricted STMGR 07/07/2014 Hold BAYNGR 24/06/2014 Restricted INEGRP 17/09/2014 Buy STMGR 25/04/2014 Restricted BAYNGR 29/04/2014 Underweight INTNED 05/02/2015 Marketweight SUNCOM 06/02/2015 Restricted BESPL 01/08/2014 no recommenda-

tion INTNED 06/11/2014 Restricted SYNNVX 16/04/2014 Marketweight

BGGRP 06/03/2015 Restricted INTNED 05/11/2014 Marketweight SYNNVX 10/04/2014 Restricted BKTSM 13/06/2014 no recommenda-

tion INTNED 05/06/2014 Restricted SZUGR 27/01/2015 Hold

BMW 05/02/2015 Marketweight ISSDC 12/03/2015 Overweight SZUGR 09/10/2014 Marketweight BMW 09/01/2015 Restricted ISSDC 05/03/2015 Marketweight SZUGR 16/07/2014 Hold BNRGR 07/05/2014 Buy ITCIT 06/03/2015 Hold SZUGR 11/07/2014 Sell BPEIM 13/01/2015 Restricted JAGLN 09/02/2015 Buy SZUGR 09/04/2014 Underweight BPIM 04/06/2014 Marketweight KAERTN 29/08/2014 Buy SZUGR 27/03/2014 Marketweight BPIM 10/04/2014 Restricted KAERTN 04/06/2014 Restricted T 29/01/2015 Marketweight BRCORO 05/12/2014 Marketweight KIONGR 08/04/2014 Hold TDCDC 20/02/2015 Marketweight BRCORO 04/09/2014 Overweight KPN 11/07/2014 Marketweight TELEFO 02/02/2015 Overweight BRITEL 02/02/2015 Overweight LBBW 10/06/2014 Marketweight TELEFO 27/11/2014 Restricted BRITEL 30/01/2015 Marketweight LBBW 21/05/2014 Restricted TENN 08/05/2014 Marketweight BRITEL 25/11/2014 Underweight LECTA 02/06/2014 Hold TITANL 30/05/2014 Buy BZUIM 28/03/2014 Hold LGFP 08/04/2014 Buy TITANL 15/04/2014 Restricted CABBCO 17/09/2014 Buy LUKOIL 19/01/2015 Buy TITIM 30/06/2014 Buy CABKSM 24/10/2014 Marketweight LUXIM 30/10/2014 Marketweight TITIM 10/06/2014 no recommenda-

tion CAFP 05/03/2015 Marketweight MAERSK 03/07/2014 Marketweight TITIM 22/05/2014 Restricted CAFP 05/02/2015 no recommenda-

tion MANTEN 17/10/2014 Buy TKAAV 02/02/2015 Marketweight

CAFP 27/01/2015 Restricted MATTER 17/09/2014 Hold TKAAV 09/01/2015 Restricted CARLB 09/12/2014 Overweight MCD 02/07/2014 Marketweight TKAAV 05/12/2014 Marketweight CARLB 02/07/2014 Marketweight MCD 05/06/2014 Restricted TKAAV 07/11/2014 Restricted CARLB 20/05/2014 Restricted MDLZ 08/05/2014 Underweight TKAAV 24/06/2014 Marketweight




Company Date Rec. Company Date Rec. Company Date Rec. CBLCSY 14/10/2014 Buy MEOGR 05/12/2014 Underweight TKAGR 18/02/2015 Restricted CBLCSY 22/07/2014 Hold MEOGR 21/10/2014 Restricted TLSNSS 23/10/2014 Underweight CEIFP 04/03/2015 Sell METINR 19/01/2015 Sell TOYOTA 02/10/2014 Underweight CEIFP 16/10/2014 Restricted METINR 28/08/2014 Hold TOYOTA 04/09/2014 Restricted CERTCH 13/11/2014 Hold MONTE 05/12/2014 no recommenda-

tion TOYOTA 06/08/2014 Underweight

CERTCH 17/09/2014 Buy MONTE 04/06/2014 Marketweight TPSA 13/02/2015 no recommenda-tion

CERTCH 03/04/2014 Restricted MONTE 10/04/2014 Restricted TRNIM 05/03/2015 Marketweight CHMFRU 17/09/2014 Buy MONTE 28/03/2014 Marketweight TRNIM 05/02/2015 Restricted CLNVX 18/02/2015 Marketweight MRK 28/10/2014 Marketweight TRUBRU 19/01/2015 Hold CNHI 20/10/2014 Hold MRKGR 05/02/2015 Marketweight TSCOLN 09/01/2015 Hold CNHI 22/09/2014 Restricted MRKGR 09/12/2014 Restricted TUIGR 05/12/2014 Hold COFIRT 08/05/2014 Marketweight MSSIN 11/08/2014 Buy TUIGR 15/09/2014 Restricted COFP 18/02/2015 Marketweight MSSIN 10/07/2014 Hold UGFP 14/07/2014 Hold CONGR 31/07/2014 Marketweight MTNA 04/02/2015 Buy UGFP 29/04/2014 Restricted CONGR 08/05/2014 Underweight MTNA 08/01/2015 Restricted VAKBN 28/05/2014 Restricted CPGLN 04/06/2014 Underweight NGGLN 05/03/2015 Marketweight VATFAL 07/08/2014 Underweight CRBKMO 22/09/2014 Hold NGGLN 04/02/2015 Restricted VEBBNK 05/02/2015 Buy CRH 26/01/2015 Overweight NLMKRU 19/01/2015 Hold VEBBNK 22/09/2014 Hold CS 30/06/2014 Marketweight NLMKRU 12/11/2014 Buy VERAV 05/12/2014 Marketweight CS 12/06/2014 Restricted NOKIA 29/04/2014 Hold VERAV 13/11/2014 Restricted CXGD 13/06/2014 no recommenda-

tion NUMFP 17/02/2015 Hold VICEN 12/03/2015 Restricted

DAIGR 23/07/2014 Marketweight NUMFP 29/01/2015 Restricted VIP 26/06/2014 Buy DAIGR 01/07/2014 Restricted NVTKRM 19/01/2015 Hold VIP 23/06/2014 Restricted DB 02/07/2014 Marketweight NYKRE 16/06/2014 Marketweight VIVFP 02/03/2015 Marketweight DB 04/06/2014 Restricted NYKRE 16/05/2014 Restricted VIVFP 02/02/2015 Underweight DEPFA 20/03/2014 no recommenda-

tion ODGR 02/02/2015 Overweight VOD 02/10/2014 Underweight

DEXGRP 07/08/2014 Marketweight ODGR 11/11/2014 Marketweight VOD 08/09/2014 Restricted DLPH 05/03/2015 Overweight ODGR 02/10/2014 Restricted VTB 22/08/2014 Sell DONGAS 04/06/2014 Underweight OIBRBZ 06/10/2014 Hold VZ 02/02/2015 Marketweight DSM 11/02/2015 Overweight OIBRBZ 17/09/2014 Sell WIEAV 18/02/2015 Hold DUEGR 18/07/2014 Hold OMVAV 05/12/2014 Marketweight WIEAV 03/09/2014 Restricted EDCLLI 21/01/2015 Buy OMVAV 10/11/2014 Restricted WIEAV 16/04/2014 Buy EDCLLI 19/01/2015 Hold ONTEX 05/03/2015 Buy WINDIM 17/09/2014 Hold EDF 09/03/2015 Marketweight ONTEX 17/11/2014 no recommenda-

tion WINDIM 04/04/2014 Restricted

EITIM 05/12/2014 Restricted ONTEX 04/11/2014 Restricted WPPLN 02/02/2015 Marketweight ELEPOR 05/03/2015 Overweight ONTEX 03/06/2014 Hold XELLA 01/09/2014 Hold ELEPOR 05/03/2015 Marketweight ORAFP 05/12/2014 Marketweight XELLA 16/05/2014 Restricted ELIASO 04/06/2014 Underweight PBBGR 10/03/2015 Marketweight ZIGGO 16/04/2014 Hold ENEASA 14/08/2014 Overweight PBBGR 12/01/2015 Restricted ENELIM 05/02/2015 Restricted PBBGR 23/06/2014 Marketweight ENELIM 12/01/2015 no recommenda-

tion PBBGR 03/06/2014 Restricted

ENELIM 11/07/2014 Restricted PELHOL 25/09/2014 Buy ENGSM 25/02/2015 Underweight PETBRA 03/03/2015 Hold ENIIM 19/02/2015 Overweight PEUGOT 24/02/2015 Hold ENIIM 05/02/2015 no recommenda-

tion PEUGOT 19/02/2015 Marketweight

ENIIM 27/01/2015 Restricted PEUGOT 14/07/2014 Hold EOANGR 11/03/2015 Underweight PGEPW 06/11/2014 Marketweight EOFP 17/03/2015 Buy PIAGIM 02/03/2015 Hold EPERGY 13/06/2014 Restricted PIAGIM 11/07/2014 Sell EPERGY 02/06/2014 Hold PIAGIM 02/06/2014 Hold EPERGY 01/05/2014 Marketweight PIAGIM 28/05/2014 no recommenda-

tion

ETLFP 02/02/2015 Marketweight PIAGIM 07/04/2014 Restricted EUROCA 15/09/2014 Buy PRADA 03/04/2014 Buy EUROCA 16/04/2014 Hold PSON 02/02/2015 Overweight EVEVRV 02/02/2015 Overweight PUBFP 02/02/2015 Overweight EVEVRV 16/12/2014 Marketweight RCIBK 20/10/2014 Marketweight EVRAZ 10/04/2014 Hold RCIBK 16/09/2014 Restricted EXOIM 26/02/2015 Hold RCIBK 07/08/2014 Overweight EXOIM 07/11/2014 Marketweight RCIBK 02/07/2014 Marketweight EXOIM 30/09/2014 Restricted REEDLN 05/03/2015 Underweight EXOIM 26/05/2014 Hold REEDLN 26/02/2015 Marketweight Overview of our ratings You will find the history of rating regarding recommendation changes as well as an overview of the breakdown in absolute and relative terms of our investment ratings on our website http://www.disclaimer.unicreditmib.eu/credit-research-rd/Recommendations_CR_e.pdf.

Note on the evaluation basis for interest-bearing securities: Recommendations relative to an index: For high grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR Benchmark" index family, for sub investment grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR High Yield" index family. Marketweight: We recommend having the same portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is equal to the total return of the index. Overweight: We recommend having a higher portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is greater than the total return of the index. Underweight: We recommend having a lower portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is less than the total return of the index. Outright recommendations: Hold: We recommend holding the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is equal to the yield.

http://www.disclaimer.unicreditmib.eu/credit-research-rd/Recommendations_CR_e.pdf




Buy: We recommend buying the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is greater than the yield. Sell: We recommend selling the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is less than the yield. We employ three further categorizations for interest-bearing securities in our coverage: Restricted: A recommendation and/or financial forecast is not disclosed owing to compliance or other regulatory considerations such as a blackout period or a conflict of interest. Coverage in transition: Due to changes in the research team, the disclosure of a recommendation and/or financial information are temporarily suspended. The interest-bearing security remains in the research universe and disclosures of relevant information will be resumed in due course. Not rated: Suspension of coverage. Trading recommendations for fixed-interest securities mostly focus on the credit spread (yield difference between the fixed-interest security and the relevant government bond or swap rate) and on the rating views and methodologies of recognized agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch). Depending on the type of investor, investment ratings may refer to a short period or to a 6 to 9-month horizon. Please note that the provision of securities services may be subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint your-self with local laws and restrictions on the usage and the availability of any services described herein. The information is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to the applicable law or provisions. Coverage Policy A list of the companies covered by UniCredit Bank is available upon request. Frequency of reports and updates It is intended that each of these companies be covered at least once a year, in the event of key operations and/or changes in the recommendation. SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL INTEREST: UniCredit Bank and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant national law) with them regularly trade shares of the analyzed company. UniCredit Bank and/or a company affili-ated may hold significant open derivative positions on the stocks of the company which are not delta-neutral. Analyses may refer to one or several companies and to the securities issued by them. In some cases, the analyzed issuers have actively supplied information for this analysis. ANALYST DECLARATION The author’s remuneration has not been, and will not be, geared to the recommendations or views expressed in this study, neither directly nor indirectly. ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ARRANGEMENTS TO AVOID AND PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST To prevent or remedy conflicts of interest, UniCredit Bank has established the organizational arrangements required from a legal and supervisory aspect, adherence to which is moni-tored by its compliance department. Conflicts of interest arising are managed by legal and physical and non-physical barriers (collectively referred to as “Chinese Walls”) designed to restrict the flow of information between one area/department of UniCredit Bank and another. In particular, Investment Banking units, including corporate finance, capital market activi-ties, financial advisory and other capital raising activities, are segregated by physical and non-physical boundaries from Markets Units, as well as the research department. Disclosure of publicly available conflicts of interest and other material interests is made in the research. Analysts are supervised and managed on a day-to-day basis by line managers who do not have responsibility for Investment Banking activities, including corporate finance activities, or other activities other than the sale of securities to clients. ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF JURISDICTIONS INDICATED Notice to Australian investors This publication is intended for wholesale clients in Australia subject to the following: UniCredit Bank AG and its branches do not hold an Australian Financial Services licence but are exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services UniCredit Bank AG and its branches provide to wholesale clients. UniCredit Bank AG and its branches are regulated by BaFin under German laws, which differ from Australian laws. This document is only for distribution to wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. UniCredit Bank AG and its branches are not Authorised Deposit Taking Institutions under the Banking Act 1959 and are not authorised to conduct a banking business in Australia. Notice to Austrian investors This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or part, for any purpose. Notice to Czech investors This report is intended for clients of UniCredit in the Czech Republic and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Notice to Hong Kong investors The information in this publication is intended for recipient(s) who is/are Professional Investor as defined in Section 1 of Part 1 of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordi-nance (Cap. 571). The information in this publication is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, however we do not make any representation as to the accura-cy or completeness of the information. Any opinions herein reflect our judgement at the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Any investments presented in this publication may be unsuitable for the investor depending on his or her specific investment objectives and financial position. Any reports provided herein are provided for general information purposes only and cannot substitute the obtaining of independent financial advice. Private investors should obtain the advice of their banker/broker about any invest-ments concerned prior to making them. Nothing in this publication is intended to create contractual obligations. Notice to Italian investors This document is not for distribution to retail clients as defined in article 26, paragraph 1(e) of Regulation n. 16190 approved by CONSOB on 29 October 2007. In the case of a short note, we invite the investors to read the related company report that can be found on UniCredit Research website www.research.unicredit.eu. Notice to Japanese investors This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Notice to Polish investors This document is intended solely for professional clients as defined in Art. 3 39b of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005. The publisher and distributor of the recommendation certifies that it has acted with due care and diligence in preparing the recommendation, however, assumes no liability for its completeness and accuracy. Notice to Russian investors As far as we are aware, not all of the financial instruments referred to in this analysis have been registered under the federal law of the Russian Federation "On the Securities Market" dated 22 April 1996, as amended (the "Law"), and are not being offered, sold, delivered or advertised in the Russian Federation. This analysis is intended for qualified investors, as defined by the Law, and shall not be distributed or disseminated to a general public and to any person, who is not a qualified investor. Notice to Singapore investors The information in this publication is intended solely for Institutional and Accredited investors only, as defined in section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) of Singa-pore (“SFA”) and is not intended to be made available to the retail public. We have taken reasonable steps to select information based on sources believed to be reliable. How-ever we do not make any representation as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is distributed for information only and is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product. It is also not and should not be construed as providing advice regarding any security, investment or product. Any opinions herein reflect our judgement at the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Such opinions do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation, risk appetite of any other characteristics and particular needs of an investor. You should consult your advis-ers concerning any potential transactions and consider carefully whether the security, investment or product is suitable for you before making any investment decision. Any reports provided herein are provided for general information purposes only. Any information regarding past performances of the investment may not be indicative of future per-formances and cannot substitute the obtaining of independent financial advice. Notice to Turkish investors Investment information, comments and recommendations stated herein are not within the scope of investment advisory activities. Investment advisory services are provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory services concluded with brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the clients. Comments and recommendations stated herein rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not suit your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely on the information stated here may not result in consequences that meet your expectations. Notice to UK investors This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005

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or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Notice to U.S. investors This report is being furnished to U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Each U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is such a "major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of UniCredit Capital Markets, LLC. Any transaction by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through UniCredit Capital Markets. The securities referred to in this report may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. The information contained in this report is intended solely for certain "major U.S. institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain inves-tors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where UniCredit Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. The information in this publication is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but UniCredit Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author’s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. UniCredit Capital Markets may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. These publica-tions reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance. UniCredit Capital Markets and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a long or short position and buy or sell such securities; (b) act as investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such securities; (c) act as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securi-ties; and (e) act as paid consultant or advisor to any issuer. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company’s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company’s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement This document may not be distributed in Canada.

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UniCredit Research* Michael Baptista Global Head of CIB Research +44 207 826-1328 [email protected]

Dr. Ingo Heimig Head of Research Operations +49 89 378-13952 [email protected]

Credit Research

Luis Maglanoc, CFA, Head +49 89 378-12708 [email protected]

Credit Strategy & Structured Credit Research

Dr. Philip Gisdakis, Head Credit Strategy +49 89 378-13228 [email protected]

Dr. Christian Weber, CFA, Deputy Head Credit Strategy +49 89 378-12250 [email protected]

Dr. Tim Brunne Quantitative Credit Strategy +49 89 378-13521 [email protected]

Holger Kapitza Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-28745 [email protected]

Dr. Stefan Kolek EEMEA Corporate Credits & Strategy +49 89 378-12495 [email protected]

Manuel Trojovsky Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-14145 [email protected]

Financials Credit Research

Franz Rudolf, CEFA, Head Covered Bonds +49 89 378-12449 [email protected]

Valentina Stadler, Deputy Head Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies +49 89 378-16296 [email protected]

Florian Hillenbrand, CFA Covered Bonds +49 89 378-12961 [email protected]

Dr. Tilo Höpker Banks +49 89 378-12960 [email protected]

Luis Maglanoc, CFA Regulatory & Accounting Service +49 89 378-12708 [email protected]

Natalie Tehrani Monfared Regulatory & Accounting Service +49 89 378-12242 [email protected]

Emanuel Teuber Banks, Financial Services, Insurance +49 89 378-14245 [email protected]

Robert Vielhaber Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies +49 89 378-12004 [email protected]

Dr. Claudia Vortmüller Banks +49 89 378-12429 [email protected]

Corporate Credit Research

Stephan Haber, CFA, Co-Head Telecoms, Technology +49 89 378-15192 [email protected]

Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA, Co-Head Automotive & Mobility +49 89 378-13246 [email protected]

Jana Arndt, CFA Basic Resources, Industrial G&S, Construction & Materials +49 89 378-13211 [email protected]

Christian Aust, CFA Chemicals, Industrial Transportation, Paper & Packaging +49 89 378-12806 [email protected]

Mehmet Dere Retail, Travel & Leisure, Oil & Gas +49 89 378-11294 [email protected]

Olga Fedotova Russia/CIS (Banks, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, Telecoms) +44 207 826-1376 [email protected]

Michael Gerstner Utilities, Hybrids +49 89 378-15449 [email protected]

Alexander Rozhetskin Russia/CIS (Banks, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, Telecoms) +44 207 826-7953 [email protected]

Jonathan Schroer, CFA Media/Cable, Logistics, Business Services +49 89 378-13212 [email protected]

Dr. Silke Stegemann, CEFA Health Care & Pharma, Food & Beverage, Personal & Household Goods +49 89 378-18202 [email protected]

Publication Address

UniCredit Research Corporate & Investment Banking UniCredit Bank AG Arabellastrasse 12 D-81925 Munich [email protected]

Bloomberg UCCR Internet www.research.unicredit.eu

*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit Bank AG London Branch (UniCredit Bank London), UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch (UniCredit Bank Milan), UniCredit Bank New York (UniCredit Bank NY), UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka d.d., UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, Bank Pekao, ZAO UniCredit Bank Russia (UniCredit Russia), UniCredit Tiriac Bank (UniCredit Tiriac).

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performance comes in waves - unicredit

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