performance webinar #3 focusing on average earnings
TRANSCRIPT
Performance Webinar #3
Focusing on Average Earnings
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Webinar Layout
Slide Area
AttendeeList
ChatRoom
Notes
Connection Status
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Chat Feature
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Background
Three Performance Management Conferences held in February/March, 2006 focused on revised performance and reporting policies
Follow-up from conferences included requests for performance-related webinars around specific topic areas
Today’s webinar is the third in a series of 6 webinars hosted by ETA Performance Specialists
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Future planned webinars
September, 2006 – VETS Performance/Reporting Issues
October, 2006 – Certificates and Training for Adults and Dislocated Workers
November, 2006 – Innovative Practices to Improve State Performance
December, 2006 – Open for suggestions (send to [email protected])
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Webinar Outline
Brief History of Earnings Outcomes Training and Employment Guidance Letters (TEGL):
7-99 15-03 28-04 17-05
Data Sources National Results Analyzing Outcomes
Lower Living Standard Income Level (LLSIL) Subject Matter Experts:
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) New York State (Average Earnings’ Forecasting Model)
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Our Speakers . . .
Ron Fionte Branch Chief, Bureau of Labor and Statistics
(BLS)
Bill Meehan Principal Economist, Division of Research
and Statistics, New York State
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History of Earnings Outcomes
TEGL 7-99 Average Earnings Change (Adult, Older Youth) Earnings Replacement Rate (DW, TAA, NEG) Effective 7/1/2000. Rescinded by TEGL 17-05
TEGL 15-03 Earnings Increase 1 & 2 (Adult, Older Youth, DW, TAA,
VETS) Never fully implemented. Rescinded by TEGL 28-04
TEGL 28-04 Six Months Earnings Increase (Adult, DW, TAA, Wagner-
Peyser, VETS) Effective 7/1/2005. Rescinded by TEGL 17-05
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TEGL 17-05
Average Earnings (Adult, DW, NEG, TAA, Wagner-Peyser, VETS)
Of those who are employed in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters after the exit quarter:Total earnings in the second quarter plus total earnings in the third quarter after the exit quarter divided by the number of participants who exit during the quarter.
Effective Date: 07/01/2006
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TEGL 17-05 Older Youth
Earnings Change: Older Youth
Of those who are employed in the 1st quarter after the exit quarter and who are either not enrolled in post-secondary education or advanced training / advanced training-occupational skills training in the 3rd quarter after the exit quarter or are employed in the 3rd quarter after the exit quarter: [Total post-program earnings [earnings in quarter 2 + quarter 3 after exit] minus pre-program earnings [earnings in quarter 2 + quarter 3 prior to participation] divided by the number of older youth participants who exit during the quarter.
Effective Date: 07/01/2006
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Data Sources
Wage Records UI Wage Records Additional Wage Record Data Sources:
Automated Record Matching / Data Sharing Systems (WRIS and FEDES)
OPM, USPS, US DoD, Railroad Retirement System, State New Hires Registry and State Department of Revenue or Tax
Supplemental Sources (only for grantees that do not have access to wage records, e.g. NFJP, SCSEP, INAP)
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UI Wage Records
Primary data source Includes private sector and non-profit
sector Also includes government employer wage
reports: State Local Judicial, and Public School
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Additional Wage Record Data Source:
WRIS & FEDES
WRIS (Wage Record Interchange System) Created to facilitate the interstate exchange of
UI wage data 50 states participating
FEDES (Federal Employment Data Exchange System)
Focused on providing access to employment records maintained by the following agencies:
Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Department of Defense (DOD) and United States Postal Service (USPS)
29 states participating
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From Data Sources to Benchmarks
Wage data are collected, compiled and compared to established benchmark standards for purposes of data analysis
Two primary data sets used for establishing benchmark standards for purposes of analysis are: Lower Living Standard Income Level (LLSIL) Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
(QCEW)
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Data and methodology: Based on the 1981 lower living family budget (BLS) BLS still provides data to ETA which publishes the
LLSIL Uses the “Poverty Guidelines” issued by HHS Annual updates based partially on the Consumer Price
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) Data are presented by geographic region and for 23
selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA)
NOTE: This data should not be used for statistical purposes due to the nature of the base calculation which has not been updated since 1981.
Lower Living Standard Income Level (LLSIL)
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Program uses: 70% LLSIL used by WIA to define:
low income individual disadvantaged youth disadvantaged adult
Used in eligibility determinations under Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC)
Since the 70% LLSIL is used as an eligibility gateway to services under WIA Adult, the average earnings outcome should approach or exceed the one-half the 70% LLSIL rate
Lower Living Standard Income Level (LLSIL)
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National Results
Average 6-Month Earnings
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
2002 2003 2004
Program Year
WIA Adult WIA DW
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National Results
Average 6-Month Earnings
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
2002 2003 2004
Program Year
WIA Adult WIA DW LLSIL70%
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National Results
Average 6-Month Earnings
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
2002 2003 2004
Program Year
WIA Adult WIA DW QCEW LLSIL70%
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Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Ron FionteBranch Chief
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
(617) 565-2335
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The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Program: What is it?
A quarterly census of employers covered under Unemployment Insurance Tax laws, and Federal employers covered under Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees.
not a sample
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QCEW Output:Macrodata & Microdata
Macrodata Output: Published data summed by location,
industry and ownership Number of establishments, monthly
employment, and quarterly wages Summed by geographical area, industry
(NAICS) code and ownership
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QCEW Output:Macrodata & Microdata
Microdata Output: Confidential establishment level data;
generally for internal use only Sample frame for establishment surveys Geocode-able, providing a detailed
mapping reference
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Macrodata Output: Employment
All workers covered by UI laws and on the payroll as of the pay period including the 12th of the month.
Includes full and part time and those on paid leave. Does not include those on unpaid leave.
Published 3 ways: Monthly per quarter, quarterly averages, annual averages.
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Macrodata Output: Total Quarterly Wages
Total amount paid to covered workers during the quarter, regardless of when the services were performed.
Bonuses, overtime, and severance pay are included.
Possible that wages are counted for workers not included in employment total (if they never worked in a pay period including the 12th)
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QCEW Program Macrodata: What’s it used for?
•Provides detailed industry employment and wages data down to the county level*.
•As a benchmark for other BLS programs.
•Input to Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) Personal Income and Gross Domestic Product statistics.
•Input to other BLS programs: LAUS, MLS.*subject to confidentiality restrictions
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UI Tax Rate & Actuarial Analysis
UI-Covered Employment
Local Area Unemployment
Personal Income (BEA)
Gross Domestic Product (BEA)
Economic Forecasting
Current Employment Statistics
Occupational Employment Statistics
Job Creation/Destruction•Size Class Dynamics•Business Survival Rates
Geocoded Establishments
Occupational Employment Statistics
Occupational Safety and Health Statistics
Current Employment Statistics
National Compensation Survey
Industrial Price Program
Occupational Safety and Health Statistics
Programmatic Uses
Benchmarking(Employment Base)
General Economic Uses
QCEW Data
Analytical Uses Sampling
Mass Layoff Statistics
State Revenue Projections
Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Quarterly Press Releases, Annual Employment and Wages
Local Economic Development Indicators
• Clusters Analysis• Shift Share• Industry Diversity Indexes• Location Quotients
Federal Funds Allocation$175 Billion
(HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)
Minimum Wage Studies
Uses of QCEW, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data
Local Economic Impact Response Planning
Local Government Services Planning
Interagency Data Uses• Improve CPS After 2000 Census• LEHD• Industry Code Sharing
Local Transportation Planning
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Pre- vs. Post-Program Earnings’ Analysis
Bill MeehanPrincipal Economist
Division of Research and Statistics,
New York State Department of Labor
(518) 457-1300
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How Pre-Program Earnings Relate to Post-Program Earnings
Pre-program earnings can be a predictor of post-program earnings. In general: The higher the pre-program earnings of a
group of participants, the higher the post-program earnings
The lower the pre-program earnings of a group of participants, the lower the post-program earnings
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How Much Higher; How Much Lower?
In the Adult program in PY 2005 in New York State: A 1 dollar change in pre-program earnings
resulted in: a 50 cent change in post-program earnings
In the Dislocated Worker program in PY 2005 in New York State: A 1 dollar change in pre-program earnings
resulted in: a 30 cent change in post-program earnings
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How Was the Relationship Determined?
Simple observation of an apparent relationship between pre- and post-program earnings
Relationship was recognized under JTPA The 30 cent and 50 cent relationships
were determined using a regression analysis with pre-program earnings as the independent variable and post-program earnings as the dependent variable
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How strong is the relationship between pre- and post-program earnings?
The magnitude of the relationship (50 cents for Adults and 30 cents for DWs) was strongest in the middle earnings range of pre-program earnings
Not as strong in the low end individuals with no pre-program earnings had much
higher post-program earnings Or in the high end
an increase in earnings in the higher range of the pre-program earnings ($15,000+) leads to an increase in post-program earnings, but not as much of an increase as in the lower pre-program earnings range
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Pre- and Post-program Earnings in Recent Years in New York State --
AdultsAVERAGE PRE AND POST PROGRAM EARNINGS
PY2005 Qtr 31 PY 2004 PY 2003
Pre-ProgramEarningsRange Individuals
AveragePre Program
Earnings
AveragePost Program
Earnings Individuals
AveragePre
ProgramEarnings
AveragePost
ProgramEarnings Individuals
AveragePre
ProgramEarnings
AveragePost
ProgramEarnings
TOTAL 18,028 $ 6,905 $ 11,462 19,812 $ 7,125 $ 11,493 27,087 $ 6,367 $ 10,812
$0 4,841 $ - $ 9,428 5,183 $ - $ 9,885 7,738 $ - $ 9,057
$1-$2,500 2,710 $ 1,140 $ 8,343 2,786 $ 1,152 $ 7,975 4,128 $ 1,135 $ 7,766
$2,501-$5,000 2,151 $ 3,707 $ 8,594 2,261 $ 3,739 $ 8,713 3,361 $ 3,708 $ 8,294
$5,001-$7,500 1,761 $ 6,231 $ 9,891 2,087 $ 6,214 $ 9,658 2,747 $ 6,191 $ 9,343
$7,500-$10,000 1,561 $ 8,720 $ 10,975 1,856 $ 8,726 $ 10,912 2,327 $ 8,711 $ 10,626
$10,001-$15,000 2,296 $ 12,326 $ 13,320 2,615 $ 12,348 $ 12,969 3,238 $ 12,306 $ 13,023
> $15,000 2,708 $ 22,352 $ 20,226 3,024 $ 22,505 $ 19,919 3,548 $ 22,036 $ 19,810
1 Source: PY 2005 Qtr 3 WIASRD. Includes exiters from 4/1/2004 to 3/31/2005