Permafrost and changing climate: impacts on infrastructureOleg Anisimov, Svetlana Reneva, Vasiliy Kokorev, Julia StrelchenkoState Hydrological InstituteSt.Petersburg, Russia

Permafrost occupies more than 60% of Russia

Key concerns associated with thawing permafrostPermafrost and global climate: potential feedback through methane emissionThreats to ecosystems, loss of wildlife habitat, geopolitical issues Vicinity of Yakytsk,2008. Photo: T.MaksimovPermafrost and economy of the North: impacts on the infrastructureBaikal-Amur main track. Photo: D.Drozdov

Consecutive stages of ground subsidence leading to forest damage.Uneven soil subsidence and erosion due to thawing permafrost severely affect northern landscapes and destroy forests (lower photo), and expose organic-rich Yedoma sediments (upper photo). Calving permafrost blocks and erosion along the coasts of Russian Arctic seas lead up to 30 km2 /y land lossEroding coastline of East-Siberian sea. Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2008Vicinity of Yakytsk.Yedoma. Lower Kolyma river. Photo: Vladimir RomanovskiyPhoto: Trofim Maksimov, 2008

Impacts of thawing permafrost on constructionsYakutsk, July 2006.Building in Vorkuta, photo: D.StreletskiyACIA, 2005

City(1999 survey)% of damaged buildingsNorilsk10%Tiksi22%Dudinka55%Dikson35%Pevek, Amderma50%Chita60%Vorkuta80%

CityIncrease of permafrost-related accidents, % per 10 years in 1980-2000.Norilsk42%Yakutsk61%Amderma90%

Facilities of Bykov Mys village, Laptev sea coast, affected by coast retreat and thawing permafrost. Baikal-Amur main track.Weather Station Tien Shan, damaged due to ice melt. Tien Shan, Central Asia, 3614 m ASL Photo: Sergei Marchenko, September 2009Photo: Dmitriy Drozdov, 2008Administrative building in Yakutsk, 2008.Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2008Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2009

Documented destructive impacts of thawing permafrostV. Grebenetz and Ye. Dmitriev, 2008

Permafrost modelConventional permafrost modelingInput: gridded climate data

ALT, mConventional permafrost modelingConventional permafrost models predict permafrost parameters, i.e. ALT, soil temperature, under current and projected climate.ALT, baseline (1990-2000)ALT, 2050 projection based on 21 GCM ensemble under A2 emission scenario

Permafrost hazard index, Ig

Ig= k (1+S) (z2 z1) Cw/ z1

Zi maximum summer thaw depth under the modern (index 1) and projected for the future (index 2) climate,

Cw -volumetric ground ice content,

S - soil salinity,

K - constant scaling factor.

Anisimov, Reneva 2006Nelson, Anisimov, Shiklomanov, 2001, 2002

CGCM2 ECHAM4GFDL-R30HadCM3CSM-1.4Permafrost hazard index,2050 projectionslowmoderatehighAnisimov et al., 2009

Uncertainties and probabilities

Active layer thicknessOrganic layer thicknessSmall-scale random variations over space

Probabilistic ALT mappingALT range

Implications for cold region engineering

Implications in engineering

Acknowledgement

Support for this UK-Russia research comes from the Foreign Commonwealth strategic programme fund

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