permafrost carbon network · koven et al. 2013, j. of climate. the deep permafrost carbon pool of...
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Permafrost Carbon Network
PIs: Ted Schuur, A. David McGuireSteering Committee: Josep G. Canadell, Jennifer W. Harden, Peter Kuhry, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Merritt R. TuretskyResearch Professor: Christina SchädelLogistics: Brit Myers, ARCUS
www.permafrostcarbon.org
Core funding: Additional Workshop Funding:
Permafrost Carbon Networkwww.permafrostcarbon.org
OBJECTIVE: Produce knowledge through research synthesis to quantify the role of permafrost carbon in driving future climate change
ACTIVITIES: 1) Organize a sequence of meetings and
working groups designed to synthesize existing permafrost carbon research
2) Formation of a consortium of interconnected researchers to disseminate synthesis results
3) Permafrost carbon network website4) Enhance early career researcher
networks
What is the magnitude, timing, and formof permafrost carbon release to the
atmosphere in a warmer world?
Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Climate
Permafrost Carbon Published LiteratureSearch Terms in Science Citation Index at Web of Science (ISI)Permafrost and Carbon in Full Text
2000–present: 94% 2005–present: 86% 2010–present: 69%
Myers and Schädel 2016
Network Goal: Use synthesis science to integrate knowledge ‘under the curve’ and distill findings for decision makers and publicYear
Num
ber o
f Pub
licat
ions
SEARCH: Knowledge Pyramid
Kelly et al. 2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -
Lead meeting, Flagstaff
Kick-off meeting, Seattle
Lead meeting, Florida
Lead meeting, Stockholm
Lead meeting, Florida
1st Annual Meeting,
AGU
2nd Annual Meeting,
AGU
3rd Annual Meeting,
AGU
4th Annual Meeting,
AGU
5th Annual Meeting,
AGU
Lead meeting, Potsdam
• Bonanza Creek LTER Annual Meeting, Fairbanks, AK• NACP, Albuquerque, NM• EGU, Vienna, Austria• DOE Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences, Washington, DC• Climate Science & Policy, Washington, DC• Center for Permafrost SG, Copenhagen, Denmark• Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Tromsø, Norway
• NRC Polar Research Board, Washington, DC • IARPC 1, Washington, DC• CliC SSG, Geneva, Switzerland• Carbon Cycle Science SG, Washington, DC• CAPP Meeting, Stockholm, Sweden• SEARCH, Boulder, CO• IARPC 2, Washington, DC • PAGE 21• NGEE Arctic, San Francisco, CA
• NACP, Washington, DC• Climate in Cryosphere, Boulder ,CO• ASSW 2015, Toyama, Japan• GCP SSC meeting, Oslo, Norway• Our Common Future, Paris, France• IARPC, online • GEOQuébec, Québec City, Canada
• EGU, Vienna, Austria• Carbon Cycle Science SG, Washington, DC• TICOP, Salekhard, Russia• ESA, Portland, OR• US-UK Arctic Workshop, Cambridge, UK• AGU, San Francisco, CA
• AGU, San Francisco, CA • Arctic Encounter, Seattle, WA• AK Permafrost, Hamburg, Germany• Clic Forum, Copenhagen, Denmark• Soil Workshop, Boulder, CO• ASSW, Fairbanks, AK• Powell Center, USGS, Ft Collins, CO• XI. ICOP, Potsdam, Germany• Arcus, Washington, DC
6th Annual Meeting,
AGU
Permafrost Carbon Network MembersCurrent number of: Members: 350+Institutions: 130Countries: 21
Working Groups:
1) Carbon Quantity
2) Carbon Quality
3) An/Aerobic
4) Thermokarst
5) Modeling Integration
Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Climate
Schuur et al. 2008 BioScience
Digital database widely available 1mDepth distribution 3m
Database of rates (lowlands)
Aerobic incubation databasepools, rates (CO2)
Methane Emissions(Field)
ModelingRetrospective1960-2009Carbon, H2OActive Layer
New yedoma inventoryDigital database 3mDelta C Inventory
Anaerobic incubation Database pools, rates (CH4, CO2)
CO2 Flux Emissions(Field)
ProspectiveConceptualModeling
Response to T, environmentPhysical Fractionation of SOMMethod recommendations
Lakes Methane Emissions
Lability of Dissolved C
Vegetation
Hydrology
Methane Synthesis
Age of Dissolved C Tibetan Carbon
Benchmarking
Winter Respiration
Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data. Schädel C et al. 2014, GCB
Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps. Hugelius et al. 2014, Biogeos.
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. Schaefer et al. 2014, ERL
2011 2012 2013 2014
Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing. Harden et al. 2012, GRL
An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra McGuire et al. 2012, Biogeos.
Implications of Warming Permafrost. UNEP 2012High risk of
Permafrost Thaw. Schuur et al. 2011, Nature
Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones. Olefeldt et al. 2013, GCB
The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database. Hugelius et al. 2013 ESSD
A new dataset for estimating organic carbon storage to 3 m depth in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Hugelius et al. 2013 ESSD
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change. Schuur et al. (2013). Clim. Change
Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO2 sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle. Belshe et al. 2013, Ecol. Let.
Characterisation of the Permafrost Carbon Pool. Kuhry et al. 2013, Perm. Per. Proc.
Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations. Todd-Brown et al. 2013, Biogeos.
Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models. Koven et al. 2013, J. of Climate
The Deep Permafrost Carbon Pool of the Yedoma Region in Siberia and Alaska. Strauss et al. 2013, GRL
2015 2016
A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations. Treat et al. GCB 2015Climate Change and the Permafrost Carbon Feedback. Schuur et al. Nature 2015
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Koven et al. 2015, Proc. Royal Soc.
Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia. Rawlins et al. 2015 Biogeosciences
Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. Lawrence et al. 2015, ERL
Permafrost soils and carbon cycling, Ping et al. 2015 Soil
more at: www.permafrostcarbon.org/publications
Changing environmental controls affect the strength of the permafrost carbon feedback. Schädel et al. Nature Climate Change
Abbott, B., et al. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire across the permafrost region? Abbott et al. Environmental Research Letters
Thermokarst terrain: circumpolar distribution and soil carbon vulnerability. Olefeldt et al. Nature Communications
A model-based analysis of the vulnerability of carbon in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009, McGuire et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles.
Northern methane release dominated by climate sensitive lake and pond source. Wik et al. 2015, Nature Geosciences
Effects of permafrost thaw on Arctic aquatic ecosystems. Vonk et al. 2015, Biogeosciences
Permafrost Zone Soil CVulnerable Fraction~5-15% by 2100
10% of knownpermafrost C pool=130-160 Pg C
Similar in magnitude to biospheric sources
(land use change)Less than human sources
(fossil fuel)
Permafrost Carbon Emissions
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
Network Building Lessons Learned
• Developing the human network a critical component of adding value to data observation networks
• Network engagement facilitated by a clear coherent science question
• Network production facilitated by engaging a range of scientists and stakeholders
• Built network is poised to ingest new observations and deliver results on the timeframe needed by decision makers