permafrostovervåkning og klimaendringer på svalbard · 2018-09-18 · permafrostovervåkning og...
TRANSCRIPT
Permafrostovervåkning og klimaendringer på SvalbardKetil Isaksen
FROSTdagen 2018 10. september 2018, NGI, Oslo
2/11
Janssonhaugen, Svalbard
May 1998
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Janssonhaugen,
Svalbard
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Janssonhaugen
Photo: Ketil Isaksen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
SettingJanssonhaugen, Adventdalen
13.09.2018 Bunntekst5
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Early temperature profile in PACEJanssonhaugen, 9 May 1999
6
Isaksen et al. 2000
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Time series in the zone of annual temperature variationsJanssonhaugen, Svalbard
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Janssonhaugen, Svalbard
0m
20m
80m
100m
40m
60m
-7,0° -6,0° -5,0° -4,0° -3,0° -2,0°
Janssonhaugen, SvalbardMean annual ground temperature 1999-2016
Long-term temperature changesJanssonhaugen, Svalbard
10
+0.7°C/decade
+1.3°C/decade
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Active-layer thicknessMaximum depth of the 0°C isotherm, Janssonhaugen
11
16cm / decade
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Contributions and development
12
· Constitute the backbone of national and international
monitoring networks
· Official weather stations with multiple sensors and new
measurement programs co-located with PACE boreholes
· Serve as validation stations for local, regional and
hemispheric permafrost modelling studies
· Key sites in international assessments
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Key sites in international assessments
13
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Contributions and development
14
· Constitute the backbone of national and international
monitoring networks
· Official weather stations with multiple sensors and new
measurement programs co-located with PACE boreholes.
· Serve as validation stations for local, regional and
hemispheric permafrost modelling studies
· Key sites in international assessments
· Operational permafrost monitoring provide real-time data
and linked to official weather stations. Data transfer and
storage takes place through national operational systems
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Operational permafrost monitoringJanssonhaugen 0-isotherm depth, active layer today
15
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Contributions and development
16
· Constitute the backbone of national and international
monitoring networks
· Official weather stations with multiple sensors and new
measurement programs co-located with PACE boreholes.
· Serve as validation stations for local, regional and
hemispheric permafrost modelling studies
· Key sites in international assessments
· Operational permafrost monitoring provide real-time data
and linked to official weather stations. Data transfer and
storage takes place through national operational systems
· Part of the National Meteorological Infrastructure that
ensures long-term and stable operations and service
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Existing weather stations on Svalbard
17
Stations operated
by MET Norway
Stations operated
by cooperating
institutions
Stations operated
by UNIS
Meteorologisk institutt
Temperature changes
Foto: Ketil Isaksen
Meteorologisk institutt
Spatial pattern of Arctic warming Air temperature anomalies during 2001-2016 (with respect to the 1971-2000 mean)
19NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
Meteorologisk institutt
Foto: Brage B. Hansen
Temperature development in Ny-Ålesund
Meteorologisk institutt
Future temperatureLongyearbyen, winter
21
12 simulations (Arctic CORDEX)
0-100 percentile + 10-90 percentile and median (50-percentile)
Drivers of recent warming on Svalbard
Sea ice decline
Higher sea surface temperature
Global warming
Meteorologisk institutt23Longyearbyen - January 13th 2018
Precipitation changes
Foto: Ketil Isaksen
Meteorologisk institutt24
Winter rain13 Januar 2018
Meteorologisk institutt
More rain, less snowfall
ANNUAL SNOW AMOUNT AS FRACTION OF TOTAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
Meteorologisk institutt
30. juni 2016
Several landslides and avalanches during
2016 on Spitsbergen - realted to heavy precipitation, but what about the influence of the record high thaw
depth?
26
Steintippdalen, 13.07.2016
Larsbreen, 28.07.2016
Foto: John Christian Nygaard
Carolinedalen, 12.08.2016Longyeardalen, 15.10.2016
Meteorologisk institutt
Maximum 1-day precipitation
27
Longyearbyen, summer (JJA) and autumn (SON)
July 11, 1972
August 5, 1981
Past and future precipitationLongyearbyen, winter
28
Isaksen m.fl. 2017
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Arctic warming
· Temperaturserier for Arktis fra SWIPA
29GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature, Base period 1971-2000; GISTEMP, NASA; Hansen et al. 2010 Photo: Ketil Isaksen
Increasing concentrations
of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere are the
primary underlying cause:
the heat trapped by
greenhouse gases triggers
a cascade of feedbacks
that collectively amplify
Arctic warming
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Norwegian Centre for Climate Services
Climate report: «Svalbard 2100»(Spitsbergen, Bjørnøya, Hopen, Oceans)
Assessment: Past-Present-Future climate
Deadline: Dec 2018
Topics: Atmosphere
Hydrology (incl. snow and glaciers)
Permafrost, avalanches
Ocean climate incl. sea ice
Sea level
Contributors:MET, NVE, UniR
IMR
NERSC
NGI,
NP
Kartverket,
Univ in Bergen and Oslo
UNIS
Meteorologisk institutt32Photo: Ketil Isaksen
Water filled terrainReindalen, Svalbard
Esimates of future temperatureLongyearbyen
Isaksen m.fl. 2017
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Trends in sea-ice concentration1978/79 – 2016/17
34
September December
Sea Ice Index, Version 3. NSIDC; Fetterer et al. 2017
PACE timeseries10 m depth
35
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Juvvasshøe og Tarfalaryggen
36
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Early signs of warming permafrost
Tps Janssonhaugen 1.4 °C
Tps Tarfalaryggen 1.1 °C
Tps Juvvasshøe 1.0 °C
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
The geothermal records are powerful indicators of climate change and
provide benchmark data on the past and present thermal state of
permafrost in the Nordic Arctic Region.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
UNIS CALM Adventdalen
39
Christiansen et al. 2010
Schuh et al. 2017
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Permafrost monitoring sites & air
temperature anomalies
13.09.2018 Bunntekst40 Average air temperature anomalies during 2000–2014 (with respect to the 1971–2000 mean)
Map and anomaly data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado (www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/)
a NW North America
a
d
d Scandinavia, Svalbard, RussiaSWIPA, AMAP 2017
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Mean annual ground temperatureContinuous to discontinuous permafrost in Scandinavia, Svalbard, Russia (Barents region)
13.09.2018 Bunntekst41
Region Since
IPY
North of West
Siberia+0.1 to
+0.2
Russian
European North+0.0 to
+0.5
Svalbard +0.5
Northern
Scandinavia +0.1 to
+0.3
Southern Norway -0.1
Change in MAGT (°C)
SWIPA, AMAP 2017
Meteorologisk institutt42
Future precipitation
Temperature development at Svalbard Airport
2016
Nordli m.fl. 2014; eKlima
Photo: Ketil Isaksen
2017
Norwegian Meteorological InstituteAdventdalen - March 1st 2018Photo: Ketil Isaksen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute45