persistence of rift valley fever virus in east africa
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by J. Gachohi, F. Hansen, B. Bett and P. Kitala at the 13th conference of the International Society of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Maastricht, the Netherlands, 20-24 August 2012.TRANSCRIPT
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Persistence of Rift Valley fever virus in East Africa
J. Gachohi, F. Hansen, B. Bett, P. Kitala
International Livestock Research Institute and University of Nairobi
Presented at the proceedings of the 13th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics held at Maastricht, Netherlands between 20th and 24th August 2012, Session 46. Epidemiology of vector borne diseases. p.
122. Maastricht, Netherlands.
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Rift Valley fever (RVF) – the disease
RVF – description & occurrence
Hosts – Sheep, goats, cattle,
Vectors – mosquitoes Aedes, Culex, Anopheles spp, etc
Impacts: zoonosis, livelihoods, trade
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The problem
• RVF epi-system components highly heterogeneous --> interactions -> complexity
• RVF epi-system components -> hosts, vectors, environment, socio-economic aspects
• Interactions - profound effects on transmission
• E.A. – 2 (interconnected?) transmission cycles
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The bigger problem
Where is the virus between the outbreaks?
Aedes mechanism Sylvatic/endemic – epidemic link
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Understanding the persistence question
• Model - a spatially-explicit stochastic simulation model
• Part of a broader aim – to dissect the mechanistic complexity of RVF epi-system
• Predict risk & impacts of RVF occurrence in NE Kenya
• Interventions
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RVF model structure – on-going
• A hybrid 2-host individual-based & 2-vector difference equation-based (discrete) model
• Model is based upon:
• Grid cell framework supporting host movements,
vector static subpopulations, vector breeding sites,
precipitation
• Host and vector population dynamics
• RVF virus transmission
• Outcome – disease incidence in hosts & vectors
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Model variables and initialization
• Grid dimension
• Vector breeding sites
• Vectors:
• Aedes eggs
• Culex eggs
• Rain
• Herds (cattle)
• Flocks (sheep)
• Host movements
• Time step
• Time Horizon
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RVFv transmission in the model
Daily vector to host transmission potential
Daily host to vector transmission potential
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Model analysis
Mean RVFv incidence averaged over 250 simulations
Vectors Hosts
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Unravelling the persistence question
Where is the virus between outbreaks?
Aedes mechanism Sylvatic-epidemic cycle
Seed the system: Aedes & Culex eggs
Shut down all rain
Vary daily natural mortality risk in eggs
1 – 30 years
Shut down Aedes mechanism
Randomly introduce viraemic hosts
in different herd sizes at different
timings before flooding
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Scenario 1: Aedes mechanism
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Aedes eggs surviving drought
Daily natural mortality risk
Outbreak after 5 years?
30 years Yes
25 years Yes
20 years Yes
15 years Yes
10 years Yes
5 years Yes
4 years No
3 years No
2 years No
1 year No
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Aedes RVFv reservoir mechanism
• Eastern part always experience outbreaks
• Is it the Aedes mechanism at play??
• Real outbreak intervals could be longer than 4-5 years
• Seasonal rains may seed “fresh” eggs
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Scenario 2: Sylvatic-epidemic cycle
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Mainland Dry season
Forested humid areas Wet season grazing
grazing
Mosquito favourable
Wildlife: RVF virus sylvatic circulation
Epidemic
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Gifts Bride price
Purchases Bride price
Rustling Grazing patterns
Trade Grazing patterns
Suppose a viraemic sylvatic herd decides to pay a visit at the mainland…
but at different timings before flooding…
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Conclusions
• Model outcomes reflects what could be going on in different parts of the region
Applications
• Integrate more mechanisms in the model
• Guide field data collection
• Assess control interventions
• Building capacity amongst communities in EWs
• Ways of integrating with climate models
• Further refining the model
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Acknowledgements
Sponsors for the ISVEE 13 student participation bursary
Study advisers
Thank you all