Perspectives of the Perspectives of the Presidential Campaign in Presidential Campaign in

Ukraine in 2015Ukraine in 2015

Oleksandr DEMIANCHUKOleksandr DEMIANCHUKDOCTOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCEDOCTOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE

Head of the Political Science Head of the Political Science DepartmentDepartment

UNIVERSITY OF KYIV MOHYLA ACADEMYUNIVERSITY OF KYIV MOHYLA ACADEMY

METHODOLOGY OF METHODOLOGY OF CONSIDERATIONCONSIDERATION

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURES OF MAKING POLITICAL PROCEDURES OF MAKING POLITICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONS AND ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONS MIGHT ADEQUATELY CHARACTERIZE MIGHT ADEQUATELY CHARACTERIZE THE TYPE OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEMTHE TYPE OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

Neoinstitutional approach requires to Neoinstitutional approach requires to take into account both formal and take into account both formal and non-formal norms and principles of non-formal norms and principles of political institutions functioningpolitical institutions functioning

THE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS THE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURES STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURES SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL POWER DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL POWER WITHIN THE POLITICAL SYSTEMWITHIN THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL POWERPOWER

Monopolism/MarxismMonopolism/Marxism PluralismPluralism ElitismElitism CorporatismCorporatism

INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-MAKING IN MAKING IN MONOPOLISTMONOPOLIST POLITICAL POLITICAL

POWER DISTRIBUTIONPOWER DISTRIBUTION

Dictator/leader

Executive/Government

Legislature/Legalisation

INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-MAKING IN MAKING IN PLURALISTPLURALIST POLITICAL POLITICAL

POWER DISTRIBUTIONPOWER DISTRIBUTION

PARLIAMENTNGO

BUSINESS

POLIICALPARTIES

EXECUTIVES/GOVERNMENT

INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-MAKING IN MAKING IN ELITISTELITIST POLITICAL POWER POLITICAL POWER

DISTRIBUTIONDISTRIBUTION

POLITICAL ELITE

EXECUTIVE/GOVERNMENT

BUSINESS

MASS MEDIA

POLITICAL PARTIES OUTSIDE THE DECISION

MAKING SYSTEM

INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM OF POLICY-MAKING IN MAKING IN CORPORATISTCORPORATIST POLITICAL POLITICAL

POWER DISTRIBUTIONPOWER DISTRIBUTION

MAIN POLITICAL

DECISIONS

MAKERS

EXECUTIVE/GOVERNMENT

MEDIA NGOs BUSINESSTERRITORIAL/

LOCAL COMMUNITIES

PRE-INDEPENDENCE PRE-INDEPENDENCE

TILL 1990 – MONOPOLIST POLITICAL TILL 1990 – MONOPOLIST POLITICAL SYSTEMSYSTEM

THE MAIN AND ONLY POLITICAL DECISION THE MAIN AND ONLY POLITICAL DECISION MAKER – Central Committee of the Communist MAKER – Central Committee of the Communist PartyParty

EXECUTIVE POWER/GOVERNMENT EXECUTIVE POWER/GOVERNMENT TRANSLATES THE IDEAS AND DIRECTIONS TRANSLATES THE IDEAS AND DIRECTIONS OF THE COMMITTEE INTO PROJECTS OF OF THE COMMITTEE INTO PROJECTS OF THE LEGISLATURE DECISIONSTHE LEGISLATURE DECISIONS

THE LEGISLATURE FUNCTION WAS SIMPLY THE LEGISLATURE FUNCTION WAS SIMPLY TO LEGALIZE THESE PROJECTSTO LEGALIZE THESE PROJECTS

MONOPOLISM FAILUREMONOPOLISM FAILUREAND PLURASLISTIC SYSTEM AND PLURASLISTIC SYSTEM

EMERGE EMERGE Shortly before and immediately after the Shortly before and immediately after the

Independence Declaration the monolithic Center Independence Declaration the monolithic Center of making decisions has dissipated into many of making decisions has dissipated into many smaller actors. During 1991-1992 more than 50 smaller actors. During 1991-1992 more than 50 new political parties had emerged in the new political parties had emerged in the Ukrainian Political System. Ukrainian Political System.

The Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) which was The Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) which was elected more than a year before the elected more than a year before the Independence suddenly had gained the MAIN Independence suddenly had gained the MAIN decision making power in Ukraine. decision making power in Ukraine.

(continue) (continue) The decision makers’ body consisted of:The decision makers’ body consisted of: so-called so-called “Red Directors” (industrial lobby)“Red Directors” (industrial lobby)

who had the majority in the Parliament – 239 who had the majority in the Parliament – 239 MPs on one side, and MPs on one side, and

scattered representatives of a big number of scattered representatives of a big number of political forcespolitical forces mainly concentrated around mainly concentrated around the democratic wing – Rukh and a few their the democratic wing – Rukh and a few their allies on the other. allies on the other.

The scope of interests, ideologies and The scope of interests, ideologies and approaches to the national development approaches to the national development strategies was too broad and diverse to make strategies was too broad and diverse to make meaningful and concise decisions.meaningful and concise decisions.

(continue)(continue) Absence of the unity and chaotic reaction Absence of the unity and chaotic reaction

to the economic and social crisis had to the economic and social crisis had caused hyperinflation and collapse of the caused hyperinflation and collapse of the economic system. economic system.

In these tough circumstances the In these tough circumstances the Executive Power (the Government led by Executive Power (the Government led by the President) had begun to play the first the President) had begun to play the first and the strongest role in making anti-crisis and the strongest role in making anti-crisis decisions. The President had received the decisions. The President had received the power to issue decrees which were equal power to issue decrees which were equal to the laws unless the corresponding laws to the laws unless the corresponding laws were passed by the Parliament.were passed by the Parliament.

End of the Pluralism EpochEnd of the Pluralism Epoch

Those politicians and political forces who Those politicians and political forces who collaborated with the President and the collaborated with the President and the Government had been receiving some Government had been receiving some political and economic privileges. political and economic privileges.

The devotion or at least loyalty to the The devotion or at least loyalty to the President had become more important President had become more important than any political/ideological reasons. The than any political/ideological reasons. The President had formed the de-politicized President had formed the de-politicized upper group of decision makers. upper group of decision makers.

The period of The period of Elitism Elitism

As the political interests, social As the political interests, social expectations, demands and values gave expectations, demands and values gave way to the elites’ interests and demands, way to the elites’ interests and demands, again the main role in making political again the main role in making political decisions appeared in the decisions appeared in the President’s/Government’s hands. President’s/Government’s hands.

Those political actors who had lost the Those political actors who had lost the power in making decisions appealed to the power in making decisions appealed to the various social groups especially of the various social groups especially of the lowest socioeconomic status. lowest socioeconomic status.

(continue)(continue) In the lowest social strata there In the lowest social strata there

appeared many intellectuals who appeared many intellectuals who shared or simply express the ideas of shared or simply express the ideas of democracy, human rights and democracy, human rights and capitalist way of national capitalist way of national development.development.

So, the Ukrainian political system So, the Ukrainian political system appeared to be split into depoliticized appeared to be split into depoliticized elite and highly politicized opposition. elite and highly politicized opposition.

Elitism dead? Long live Elitism!Elitism dead? Long live Elitism!

The Presidential Election in 2004 had The Presidential Election in 2004 had sharpened the conflict between solely sharpened the conflict between solely economic inspirations of the elite and economic inspirations of the elite and political/democratic/social inspirations of political/democratic/social inspirations of the opposition. the opposition.

The Kuchma’s elite had been defeated in The Kuchma’s elite had been defeated in the Orange Revolution. the Orange Revolution.

Three possible ways from the Three possible ways from the ElitismElitism

““Solidization” of the political system into Solidization” of the political system into the monopoly of one political force. – They the monopoly of one political force. – They needed a powerful ideology for the whole needed a powerful ideology for the whole society or at least quick economic society or at least quick economic success. – Neither was available or success. – Neither was available or possible to reach.possible to reach.

Second waySecond way

As the political system has split into two As the political system has split into two powerful actors – Orange forces and the powerful actors – Orange forces and the Party of Regions – it could be expected to Party of Regions – it could be expected to see the Corporatism in making decisions. see the Corporatism in making decisions. Keeping in mind that no one political force Keeping in mind that no one political force had a majority to make political decisions it had a majority to make political decisions it could be expected the period of political could be expected the period of political negotiations between the political negotiations between the political entrepreneurs. During some period and with entrepreneurs. During some period and with some restrictions/peculiarities it happened. some restrictions/peculiarities it happened.

Elitism alive?!Elitism alive?!

The political history has proved that The political history has proved that Gaetano Moska and Wilfred Pareto were Gaetano Moska and Wilfred Pareto were right – elite is immortal. right – elite is immortal.

During the first year of his Presidency Victor During the first year of his Presidency Victor Yuschenko had managed to create a new Yuschenko had managed to create a new class of political elite. Unlike the Kuchma’s class of political elite. Unlike the Kuchma’s elite these politicians often appealed to the elite these politicians often appealed to the voters with criticism of their enemies and voters with criticism of their enemies and endless promises to drastically improve endless promises to drastically improve living standards if they are elected. living standards if they are elected.

(continue)(continue)

Instead of the struggle between the ruling Instead of the struggle between the ruling elite and the opposition the political elite and the opposition the political system had faced the battles inside the system had faced the battles inside the elite itself. elite itself.

The Constitution-2004 adopted in the The Constitution-2004 adopted in the revolutionary circumstances and revolutionary circumstances and conditioned by seeking a peace and conditioned by seeking a peace and compromise significantly decreased the compromise significantly decreased the President’s potential in ruling the Elite. President’s potential in ruling the Elite.

(continue)(continue)

The competition between the decision The competition between the decision making actors was replaced by the open making actors was replaced by the open animosity of the three parts – President, animosity of the three parts – President, Prime Minister and Party of Regions as the Prime Minister and Party of Regions as the Opposition.Opposition.

The main goal in the making decision The main goal in the making decision processes was to defeat the enemy rather processes was to defeat the enemy rather than to solve socially sound problems or to than to solve socially sound problems or to reach any development goals.reach any development goals.

The “New Era”The “New Era” In these circumstances the democratic In these circumstances the democratic

forces with their “pluralistic” political forces with their “pluralistic” political approaches to any public affairs had little approaches to any public affairs had little chances to win the Presidential elections chances to win the Presidential elections in 2009-10. in 2009-10.

Pragmatic economic promises (not ideas!) Pragmatic economic promises (not ideas!) together with the brutal accusations of the together with the brutal accusations of the opponents provided victory to the Party of opponents provided victory to the Party of Regions.Regions.

THE MONARCH, HIS FAMILY THE MONARCH, HIS FAMILY AND THE YARDAND THE YARD

From the beginning the main From the beginning the main President’s support came from President’s support came from the “Donetskiye” (people from the “Donetskiye” (people from Donbass region) and Russia. Donbass region) and Russia.

Official data: 75 % of the higher Official data: 75 % of the higher executives in Ukrainian executives in Ukrainian Government have Donbass roots. Government have Donbass roots.

THE FAMILYTHE FAMILY

The elder son Aleksandr Yanukovych The elder son Aleksandr Yanukovych during 2 years of the dad’s Presidency had during 2 years of the dad’s Presidency had gained his private assets from almost 0 to gained his private assets from almost 0 to above $1,5 billion due to legal and above $1,5 billion due to legal and (mostly) illegal taking off businesses from (mostly) illegal taking off businesses from other entrepreneurs including those from other entrepreneurs including those from the Party of Regions. the Party of Regions.

The younger son Viktor has got the whole The younger son Viktor has got the whole national IT sphere under his control.national IT sphere under his control.

All this situation to be stable required strict All this situation to be stable required strict and severe personal control over the and severe personal control over the Legislative, Executive and Judicial branches Legislative, Executive and Judicial branches of Power. of Power.

Significant (almost constitutional) majority of Significant (almost constitutional) majority of “Regionals” in the Parliament helped to create “Regionals” in the Parliament helped to create a loyal majority in the Constitutional Court and a loyal majority in the Constitutional Court and then to pass the Constitution changes then to pass the Constitution changes returning to its initial version from Kuchma’s returning to its initial version from Kuchma’s times – the President returned almost times – the President returned almost unrestricted control over the whole political unrestricted control over the whole political and state power.and state power.

THE SOCIETYTHE SOCIETY To hold the society in a loyalty and To hold the society in a loyalty and

obedience the New Power needed two obedience the New Power needed two things: economic prosperity and ideology. things: economic prosperity and ideology. Both demanded high professionals and Both demanded high professionals and intellectuals. intellectuals.

Personal enrichment of the top figures Personal enrichment of the top figures contradicts to the social equity and equality. contradicts to the social equity and equality. Concentration of power required Concentration of power required concentration of economy and enforcing concentration of economy and enforcing control over the social processes – “Stick control over the social processes – “Stick and Carrot”. and Carrot”.

Big mistake or zugzwang?Big mistake or zugzwang?

Accusation and imprisonment of Yulia Accusation and imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko was a necessity to secure Tymoshenko was a necessity to secure New Power from the Opposition New Power from the Opposition operations. operations.

But this act had significantly negative But this act had significantly negative consequences both for the internal and consequences both for the internal and foreign affairs. foreign affairs.

INSIDE UKRAINEINSIDE UKRAINE

DEMONSTRATION THAT NOBODY CAN DEMONSTRATION THAT NOBODY CAN FEEL SECURE IN FACE OF THE FEEL SECURE IN FACE OF THE POWER FORCES.POWER FORCES.

TYMOSHENKO RECEIVED AN TYMOSHENKO RECEIVED AN OPPORTUNITY TO MUCH WIDER OPPORTUNITY TO MUCH WIDER PUBLICITY THAN IT COULD BE PUBLICITY THAN IT COULD BE OTHERWISE.OTHERWISE.

INTERNATIONAL ARENA:INTERNATIONAL ARENA:WESTERN WORLDWESTERN WORLD

Suppression of the democratic opposition Suppression of the democratic opposition and folding reforms was met by the West and folding reforms was met by the West negatively. Yanukovych soon had become negatively. Yanukovych soon had become “not-hand-given”.“not-hand-given”.

At the same time negotiations of the At the same time negotiations of the skilled Opposition and the Western skilled Opposition and the Western politicians helped the last to understand politicians helped the last to understand the difference between the Power and the the difference between the Power and the Society. Society.

Understanding the geopolitical status of Understanding the geopolitical status of Ukraine the Western leaders began to play Ukraine the Western leaders began to play the role of “Carrot” attracting and the role of “Carrot” attracting and encouraging the Ukrainian polity to move encouraging the Ukrainian polity to move towards Europe. towards Europe.

Those oligarchs who have completed the Those oligarchs who have completed the capital accumulation in general and are capital accumulation in general and are interested in maintaining political, social interested in maintaining political, social and (the most!) legal order have supported and (the most!) legal order have supported the European integration attempt of the the European integration attempt of the Power. Power.

RUSSIARUSSIA Russian Presidents Dmitriy Medvedev and Russian Presidents Dmitriy Medvedev and

then Vladimir Putin concluded several then Vladimir Putin concluded several agreements with President Viktor Yanukovich agreements with President Viktor Yanukovich (so-called Kharkov agreements) in 2010.(so-called Kharkov agreements) in 2010.

But! The “Gas Agreement” concluded by Yulia But! The “Gas Agreement” concluded by Yulia Tymoshenko remained unchanged which Tymoshenko remained unchanged which brought financial losses both to the national brought financial losses both to the national economy and to the private businesses of the economy and to the private businesses of the oligarchs in the Yankovych’s circles. oligarchs in the Yankovych’s circles.

Russia could not agree with the Russia could not agree with the Tymoshenko imprisonment: it would Tymoshenko imprisonment: it would discover to the World the Russia’s discover to the World the Russia’s voluntary and brutal politics towards voluntary and brutal politics towards Ukraine in the “Gas War” in 2009.Ukraine in the “Gas War” in 2009.

Loosing Ukraine to Europe Russia looses Loosing Ukraine to Europe Russia looses its historical roots, preferences for their its historical roots, preferences for their businesses and actually the most valuable businesses and actually the most valuable economic and political partner.economic and political partner.

Current situation in the Ukrainian Current situation in the Ukrainian political systempolitical system

It is very difficult, almost impossible to It is very difficult, almost impossible to describe the current political system by describe the current political system by only one model of the political power only one model of the political power distribution. distribution.

The process of political decisions making The process of political decisions making now is quite simple (to implement now is quite simple (to implement directives from the President), opaque (it directives from the President), opaque (it is unknown who and how operationalize is unknown who and how operationalize the political decisions), and highly non-the political decisions), and highly non-professional (lack of cadres).professional (lack of cadres).

Tendencies and forecastsTendencies and forecasts

Three years of holding the whole power in Three years of holding the whole power in one hand has discovered the importance of one hand has discovered the importance of political interaction between the actors in political interaction between the actors in decision making. After several years of decision making. After several years of economic failures it is evidently impossible to economic failures it is evidently impossible to quickly succeed in reaching high life quickly succeed in reaching high life standards for the most of people in Ukraine. standards for the most of people in Ukraine. As the opposition is squeezed from the As the opposition is squeezed from the decision making process, the only author of decision making process, the only author of the economic and social losses appears to the economic and social losses appears to be the ruling elite belonging to the PR. be the ruling elite belonging to the PR.

(continue(continue)) The recent events in Ukrainian political life The recent events in Ukrainian political life

have proven the primacy of politics over have proven the primacy of politics over economy (especially macroeconomic acts economy (especially macroeconomic acts and inspirations). and inspirations).

In the next Parliament elections any In the next Parliament elections any political party (except Party of Regions) political party (except Party of Regions) will be forced to rely upon the voters’ will be forced to rely upon the voters’ support, to win the votes mostly by support, to win the votes mostly by blaming the enemies/competitors rather blaming the enemies/competitors rather than suggesting real and attractive for the than suggesting real and attractive for the society ways of the national development.society ways of the national development.

Three dotsThree dots

The Ukrainian political system is too closed The Ukrainian political system is too closed to become connected to the people, to the to become connected to the people, to the society. society.

Bankruptcy of the main political Bankruptcy of the main political entrepreneurs calls for the new forces to entrepreneurs calls for the new forces to come on the political stages. (There are no come on the political stages. (There are no new socially attractive political forces).new socially attractive political forces).

Chaos in the politics may lead to revolts Chaos in the politics may lead to revolts which will mean further falling down of the which will mean further falling down of the Ukrainian economy and society. Ukrainian economy and society.

BREAK-DANCEBREAK-DANCE

Parliamentary elections-2012 had Parliamentary elections-2012 had significantly complicated the whole significantly complicated the whole process of decision-making.process of decision-making.

Several very sound law drafts suggested Several very sound law drafts suggested by the President and the Government by the President and the Government were negatively voted by a part of the were negatively voted by a part of the ruling elite together with the new ruling elite together with the new Opposition. Opposition.

The Ruling Party of Regions appears to be The Ruling Party of Regions appears to be not so solidly united as before. not so solidly united as before.

The Opposition is still split into three parts The Opposition is still split into three parts with the Presidential ambitions of all three with the Presidential ambitions of all three leaders and little chances to get agreed. leaders and little chances to get agreed.

““Russian stick” and European “Carrot” Russian stick” and European “Carrot” make the European choice imperative. make the European choice imperative.

Nevertheless the resistance to it inside Nevertheless the resistance to it inside Ukraine will constantly increase Ukraine will constantly increase (communists, Russkiy Mir etc.)(communists, Russkiy Mir etc.)

Presidential Campaign-2015Presidential Campaign-2015

1.5 years before – time to begin 1.5 years before – time to begin New times – old facesNew times – old faces Viktor Yanukovych has minimal chances to Viktor Yanukovych has minimal chances to

be re-elect. Sociology: in October 2013 be re-elect. Sociology: in October 2013 positive attitude is less 20 %, negative up positive attitude is less 20 %, negative up to 70 %. All three oppositional leaders to 70 %. All three oppositional leaders (Klichko, Yatseniuk, Tyagnybok) win (Klichko, Yatseniuk, Tyagnybok) win against Yanukovych in the 2nd tour. against Yanukovych in the 2nd tour.

EU-Ukraine Association EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (if been signed)Agreement (if been signed)

Seems that Ukraine is more needed by Seems that Ukraine is more needed by Europe than vice versa. Europe than vice versa.

Signing the Agreement will hardly bring Signing the Agreement will hardly bring additional suport to Yanukovych. He even additional suport to Yanukovych. He even may loose votes of those who are Russia-may loose votes of those who are Russia-oriented.oriented.

Influence of the Agreement on Ukrainian Influence of the Agreement on Ukrainian polity is invaluable as the politicians will be polity is invaluable as the politicians will be forced to implement democratic reforms.forced to implement democratic reforms.

In a short-term perspective the Agreement In a short-term perspective the Agreement will lead to some economic improvement will lead to some economic improvement in Ukraine. in Ukraine.

Oppositional leaders will additionally gain Oppositional leaders will additionally gain voters’ support.voters’ support.

Russia may increase its blocking pressure Russia may increase its blocking pressure and intensify the “Information War” both and intensify the “Information War” both inside and outside Ukraine. inside and outside Ukraine.

At the same time Ukraine will evidently At the same time Ukraine will evidently gain its independence from Russia in the gain its independence from Russia in the energy resources sense.energy resources sense.

EU-Ukraine Association EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (if NOT been Agreement (if NOT been

signed)signed) Sharp increase of political and social protests Sharp increase of political and social protests

both inspired by the Opposition and self-driven.both inspired by the Opposition and self-driven. Correspondingly radicalization of conflicts Correspondingly radicalization of conflicts

between the Power and the Opposition. I can’t between the Power and the Opposition. I can’t exclude probability of a Civil War. exclude probability of a Civil War.

Russia’s intervention is highly possible first in Russia’s intervention is highly possible first in Crimea and then in Eastern regions.Crimea and then in Eastern regions.

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

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WELCOME!WELCOME!