perspectives of water stress in cyprus iacovos iacovides water resources specialist european forum...

Perspectives of water stress

in Cyprus

Perspectives of water stress

in Cyprus

Iacovos IacovidesIacovos IacovidesWater Resources SpecialistWater Resources Specialist

European Forum Cyprus

"Cyprus without water? One island, one problem and some related challenges"

Barcelona - Nov. 13-16, 2008

Council of Europe European UnionConseil de l'Europe Union européenne

I.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants LtdI.A.CO Environmental and Water Consultants Ltd 2

ContentsContents

Water Resources

Water Demands

Significant water management issues

Desertification

Drought


THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES ISLAND-WIDE (1951-1981)ISLAND-WIDE (1951-1981)

Surface water 54%

Northern Part 30%

Groundwater 46%


THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES AFTER 1970 (G.C. Southern part only (1970-2000))AFTER 1970 (G.C. Southern part only (1970-2000))

ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY 2860

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (83%) 2370(83%) 2370BALANCE “USEABLE” 490

SURFACE WATER 295SURFACE WATER 295

GROUNDWATER 195 + 43GROUNDWATER 195 + 43

LOSSES LOSSES 160160

LOSSES LOSSES 102102

EXCESS EXCESS PUMPING -46PUMPING -46

DAM DAM RELEASES 125RELEASES 125

PUMPING & PUMPING & SPRINGS 124SPRINGS 124

DIVERSIONS DIVERSIONS 2525

AREA OF G.C. CYPRUS = 6153 km2

AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL = 465 mm

TOTAL ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY = 2860 Mm3

83% EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = 2370 Mm3

BALANCE “USEABLE” = 490

SURFACE WATER 295

GROUNDWATER 195

490 490

River diversions = 25 Pumping =124 Use from dams = 125 Springs Aquifer recharge* = 43 Losses to sea = 160 Losses to sea = 102 Excess pumping = - 46 295 *238

Estimated >10% reduction


Troodos Mountains Rainfall Troodos Mountains Rainfall in 1917 - 1970 vs 1971 - 2000in 1917 - 1970 vs 1971 - 2000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

m1

m1 - s1

m1 + s1

m2 + s2

m2 - s2

m2

Hydrological years

Reg

ion

al s

tan

dard

ised

an

nual

pre

cip

itat

ion

Data used to design the dams1917-1970

Recent observations1971-2000

m1, m2 : mean of the 1917-1970 and 1971-2000 periods

s1 , s2 : standard deviation of the 1917-1970 and 1971-2000 periods

YEAR OF DROP

CHANGE

-100 mm (15-25% less)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION RECORDS (1916-2000) SHOWS A STEP CHANGE AROUND 1970. 100 mm lower than older period (or 15 to 25% )

Data used for the design of dams

Recent observations 1970-2000


Average annual rainfall (Southern-part)Average annual rainfall (Southern-part)

NOTICE THE DROP OF RAINFALL AT VARIOUS PERIODS:

1901-1970

541 mm

1971-2005

470 mm

1987-2008

453 mm


Relation between annual rainfall and inflow for Kouris dam

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

Kouris Dam : Annual Inflow vs. Annual Rainfall

an

nu

al in

flo

w in

mcm

annual rainfall in mm

Rain - 13 %

Flow - 34 %

Observed 1916/17-1969/70 mean Observed 1970/71-1999/2000 mean rainfall

Estimated 1916/17-1969/70 mean

Estimated 1970/71-1999/2000

Regresion curve

1970/71-1999/2000 annual observations

FLOW - 34%

RAIN-13%

Surface runoff reduction has been 20 to 60%


Inflow of water into dams (1987-2008)The decrease of inflow to dams varies between 24% and 58%. The island has roughly

40% less water than had been assumed based on pre-1970 records


Water storage in Dams (1988 – 2008)Water storage in Dams (1988 – 2008)

Present storage is 8.8 MCM or 3.2% of the 273.6 MCM Capacity

Lowest ever


The Morphou coastal aquiferThe Morphou coastal aquifer

(after M. Ergil: Eastern Mediterranean University)(after M. Ergil: Eastern Mediterranean University)

meets the needs of the North (275 km2 45-100 m thick).

Aquifer annual safe yield in northern Cyprus is 74 MCM. But 29 MCM are over-extracted (UNDP 1970, DSI 2002).Surface water (13MCM) and dams (7) make the total potential to 94 MCMThus the water deficit of North Cyprus is about 12.5 million m3 (106.6 – 94.1)


Water transport from Turkey Water transport from Turkey (after G. Elgiran, M. Ergil, European Univ. Lefke)(after G. Elgiran, M. Ergil, European Univ. Lefke)

Water transported in large water bags (10000 to 30000 m3) towed by ship from Anamur Turkey to the coast of Morphou in the period of 1998-2002 amounted to 4.1 MCM.

TCM = Thousands m3


Use of water resources in northern part of Use of water resources in northern part of Cyprus (Cyprus (after World Bankafter World Bank))

Some 76% are used for irrigation and 2% for livestock


Options for solution of water problem in Options for solution of water problem in northern Cyprusnorthern Cyprus

Conversion of traditional irrigation methods to modern irrigation on 1400 ha of land in Morphou

Rehabilitation and use of treated wastewater Importation of 7 MCM from Turkey Transportation cost of water imported from Turkey to

Morphou by a tanker with a capacity of 40,000 m3 was found to be $0.79 per m3 (incl. infrastructure and port handling) (after H. Bicak & G. Jenkins, 1999).

Thus importation is competitive to desalination Leakage in the network (est. 30%) is the most important

variable affecting price of water. Water resource development needs to focus on increasing

the supply of potable water at the expense of irrigation.


Kokkinochoria aquifer water levels and Kokkinochoria aquifer water levels and sea intrusion (1994 -2000)sea intrusion (1994 -2000)

Hydr. No. LIO_469

Hydr. No. XFG_66

ParalimniLake

Achna Dam

5

kilometers

2.50

ACHNA

ORMIDEIA

XYLOTYMVOU

PERGAMOS

MAKRASYKA

GAIDOURAS

KONTEA

SINTA

KALOPSIDA

KOUKLIA

XYLOFAGOU

LIOPETRI

AVGOROU

FRENAROS

ACHERITOU

AMMOCHOSTOS

AGIA NAPA

PARALIMNI

DERYNEIA

SOTIRA

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

40

20

60

-200

-40

-20

0

20

-40

-20

400

20

-40

-40

-20

0

100

60

80

20

40

0 -40-200

Hydr. No. LIO_469

Hydr. No. XFG_66

ParalimniLake

Achna Dam

5

kilometers

2.50

ACHNA

ORMIDEIA

XYLOTYMVOU

PERGAMOS

MAKRASYKA

GAIDOURAS

KONTEA

SINTA

KALOPSIDA

KOUKLIA

XYLOFAGOU

LIOPETRI

AVGOROU

FRENAROS

ACHERITOU

AMMOCHOSTOS

AGIA NAPA

PARALIMNI

DERYNEIA

SOTIRA

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

Green Line

500 500

300

1,000

500

300

300

500

1,000

> - 40 m 500 mg/l


Akrotiri Aquifer: sea intrusion 2001Akrotiri Aquifer: sea intrusion 2001

Hydr. No. 775

ERIMI

KOLOSSIEPISKOPI

KANTOU

AKROTIRI

ASOMATOS

TRACHONI

YPSONAS

TSERKEZOI

MESA GEITONIAPANO POLEMIDIA

KATO POLEMIDIA

LEMESOS

Akrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt LakeAkrotiri Salt Lake

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Ko

uris River

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

Garyllis R

iver

42

kilometers

0

100010001000100010001000100010001000

250250250250250250250250250

500500500500500500500500500

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400400400400400400400400400

200200200200200200200200200

250250250250250250250250250

5005005005005005005005005001000

100010001000100010001000100010001500

15001500150015001500150015001500

200020002000200020002000200020002000

300030003000300030003000300030003000

4000400040004000400040004000400040007000

70007000700070007000700070007000

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

No

v-6

1

No

v-66

No

v-71

No

v-7

6

No

v-81

No

v-8

6

No

v-91

No

v-9

6

No

v-0

1

WA

TE

R L

EV

EL

(m

ams

l)

TREND

Hydrograph of borehole 775 (Elev. 15.63 m amsl) 1961-2001

500 mg/l


Water Demand in southern part of CyprusWater Demand in southern part of Cyprus

Distribution of Water Demand from various Sectors - Year 2000

Industry1%

Environment5%

Tourism5%

Domestic excl. Tourism

20%

Agriculture69%

Some 69% goes to agriculture (182 MCM). Domestic accounts for 25% or 67.5 MCM (Only 5% goes to Tourism).

Distribution of Agricultural Water Demand

Animal Husbandry

4%

Major Government Water Schemes

55%

Areas Outside the Government

Water Schemes41%

02468

1012141618

Wat

er D

eman

d M

CM

Amm

ocho

stos

*

Larn

aca

Lefk

osia

Lem

esos

Pafos

All Villa

ges

British

Bas

es

Turk

ish S

ecto

r / L

efko

sia

Water Demand of Residents and Tourists - Year 2000

Resident Tourist

RESIDENTIALTOURISM


Supply of water from GWWs (1991-2007)Supply of water from GWWs (1991-2007)

Note the steady increase in domestic demand;

Irrigation demand steady but variable according to supply availability


Domestic water supply sources (GWWs) Domestic water supply sources (GWWs) (1991-2007)(1991-2007)

Desalination became a new source of supply after 1997 and 2001


Irrigation water supply sources (GWWs) Irrigation water supply sources (GWWs) 1991-20071991-2007

Reuse of tertiary treated effluent for irrigation is the new added source; supply variable according to water availability; Better management for reliable but lesser quantities/ year


Significant Water Management IssuesSignificant Water Management Issues

Over-exploitation of groundwaters Hydromorphological pressures and quantity – flow of

surface waters (degradation of natural characteristics) Pollution:

Agricultural Urban Other sources (industry, mining, rainwater run-off)

Conservation of protected areas and significant hydrophilous ecosystems

Other issues Administrative issues Water pricing (Financial + Resource + Environmental Cost)

Pressures on coastal water bodies


Significant Water Management Issues Significant Water Management Issues ((continuedcontinued))

Desalination (costs relying on imported fossil fuels (0.92 Euro/m3 for Dhekelia and 0.68 for Larnaka) – Intensive use of energy: impact on the environment (indirect greenhouse gas emissions (GHG))

Import of water from Greece or elsewhere (high cost about 5 Euro/m3)

Water Demand Management Reduction of agriculture for the benefit of domestic

supply Control of leakages from distribution networks Developing water awareness Combating desertification Water Scarcity and Drought


Desertification is …Desertification is …

Soil losing its productive capacitySoil losing its productive capacity


Factors of DesertificationFactors of Desertification

Natural factors

climate • temperature• precipitation

soil • type • erosion

vegetation• species• Biomass


Over mining

Overgrazing

Population increasing

Fires & Deforestation

Human factors

Factors of DesertificationFactors of Desertification


Desertification conditions in Cyprus Desertification conditions in Cyprus as per UNESCO/FAO classificationas per UNESCO/FAO classification


Effect of Climate Change to DesertificationEffect of Climate Change to Desertification

Under climate change desertification INCREASE by 23.5%

Sensitivity Class Index Range

% of land

(under Present conditions)

% of land

(under Climate Change Scenario

– 85% ppt & 1.3°C)

Critical 1.38 to >1.53 57.0 70.4

Sensitive 1.23 to 1.37 42.3 29.5

Potential 1.17 to 1.22 0.7 0.1

Non-affected <1.17 0 0


Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION: Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION: Present conditionsPresent conditions

Critical 57%

Fragile 42.3%


Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION: Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION: Climate ChangeClimate Change

Critical 70.4%

Fragile 29.5%

Scenario: 15% less rainfall and temperature increase by 1.3°C


Drought is …Drought is …

Lack of precipitationLack of precipitation

and/orand/or

A period of water shortageA period of water shortage


Drought is…Drought is…

WaterDemand

WaterSupply

There is 20% probability that annual rainfall could be 390-470

mm (drier years) and/or <390 mm (driest years)

Drought is a normal, repetitive climatologic feature


Trends in recorded rainfall and runoffTrends in recorded rainfall and runoff

Rainfall: Statistical analysis over 1916/1917-1999/2000 shows that the

precipitation displays a step change around 1970. For 1916/1917 to 1969/70 no trend can be detected. For 1970/1971 to 1999/2000 a slight decreasing trend but not

significant is noted. For areas of elevation higher than 500 m, the mean annual

precipitation in the recent period is lower by 100 mm or more than the mean of the older period (or 15% -25%)

There is no proof that this decrease is due to global climate change, but this possibility is not necessarily excluded.

Runoff: The lower rainfall has caused a significant reduction in the water

available on the island as compared to the pre-1970 records. Decreases in runoff for all the dams after 1970 with respect to the

older time series vary between 20 and 60 percent. (13% reduction in ppt results to 34% reduction in runoff for Kouris)


Trends in DemandTrends in Demand

Demand: Already the demand is much higher than the supply and is

rising. New sources of water are scarce or very expensive. Water demand management through proper water pricing and reduction of agriculture need to be seriously considered if we are to maintain the acquired standard of living and combat desertification.

Conditions are likely to become worse if the scenarios for Climate Change materialize.

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