persuasion: the science and art of effective influence professor gary orren professor gary orren...

PERSUASION: PERSUASION: The Science and Art of Effective InfluenceThe Science and Art of Effective Influence

Professor Gary Orren Professor Gary Orren

John F. Kennedy School of GovernmentJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHarvard UniversityHarvard University

Copyright © 2005 by Gary Orren

““What is distinctively What is distinctively human at the most human at the most

fundamental level is the fundamental level is the capacity to persuade and capacity to persuade and

be persuaded.”be persuaded.”

Bertrand RussellBertrand Russell Outline of PhilosophyOutline of Philosophy (1927) (1927)


Selected Principles of PersuasionSelected Principles of Persuasion

1.1. The Three P’s: Power, Payment, and The Three P’s: Power, Payment, and PersuasionPersuasion

2.2. Simplicity/ClaritySimplicity/Clarity

3.3. Know the audience and its predispositionsKnow the audience and its predispositions

4.4. SalienceSalience

5.5. StorytellingStorytelling

6.6. Reciprocity/ConcessionReciprocity/Concession

7.7. Liking: Similarity and EmpathyLiking: Similarity and Empathy


Managers and leaders Managers and leaders who fail generally do so who fail generally do so not because of things not because of things they don’t know, but they don’t know, but because of things they because of things they know perfectly well that know perfectly well that they just aren’t doing.they just aren’t doing.


““Learning is when you Learning is when you suddenly understand suddenly understand something you have something you have

understood all your life, understood all your life, but in a new way.”but in a new way.”

Doris LessingDoris Lessing British AuthorBritish Author


The “Three P’s" of Social InfluenceThe “Three P’s" of Social Influence

PERSUASION PERSUASION Communicating with others in a way Communicating with others in a way that induces them to voluntarily that induces them to voluntarily think or act differently think or act differently

POWERPOWER Command, assertion, force, coercion, Command, assertion, force, coercion, threatthreat

PAYMENTPAYMENT Material incentives, reward, Material incentives, reward, compensation, negotiation, compensation, negotiation,

exchange, exchange, bargaining, transactionbargaining, transaction


Simplicity/ClaritySimplicity/Clarity

Keep your message simple and comprehensible. KISS.Keep your message simple and comprehensible. KISS.

The challenge: our subjects are complex and we are The challenge: our subjects are complex and we are logos-oriented.logos-oriented.

Tip of the iceberg.Tip of the iceberg.

Question: what is the one thing the audience will remember?Question: what is the one thing the audience will remember?

Recall and number of points in the argument. Recall and number of points in the argument.


Recall and Number of PointsRecall and Number of Points

Number of Points in an Argument

Recall

1 432 5 n


Know the AudienceKnow the Audience

The power of predispositions.The power of predispositions.

Cognitive conservatism. Confirmatory bias.Cognitive conservatism. Confirmatory bias.

Listening, empathy.Listening, empathy.

We typically know our audiences in a half-baked We typically know our audiences in a half-baked way. We need to use all available resources to way. We need to use all available resources to know the audienceknow the audience

Sun Tzu, Sun Tzu, The Art of WarThe Art of War. .


““If I had 9 hours to cut If I had 9 hours to cut down a tree, I would down a tree, I would

spend 6 hours spend 6 hours sharpening my axe.”sharpening my axe.”

Abraham LincolnAbraham Lincoln


SalienceSalience

• The importance, relevance of an issue.The importance, relevance of an issue.

• Agenda settingAgenda setting

• A fundamental idea: audience sovereigntyA fundamental idea: audience sovereignty

SI P


StorytellingStorytelling

• ““The key to leadership is effective persuasion through stories.” The key to leadership is effective persuasion through stories.” “Narratives are the most powerful currency of persuasion.”“Narratives are the most powerful currency of persuasion.”

• Retention by studentsRetention by students

• Religious TextsReligious Texts

• Stories:Stories:

• Represent an intrinsic reality, have credibility. Represent an intrinsic reality, have credibility.

• Capture attention and engage the mind.Capture attention and engage the mind.

• Let the listener interpret the message in his/her own terms.Let the listener interpret the message in his/her own terms.

• Never a statistic without a story, never a story without a Never a statistic without a story, never a story without a statisticstatistic


Reciprocity/ConcessionReciprocity/Concession

We are more likely to persuade someone if we have given them We are more likely to persuade someone if we have given them something.something.

Concessions: what can I afford to give away?Concessions: what can I afford to give away?

Substantive and stylistic concessionsSubstantive and stylistic concessions

Listening is the cheapest concession you can make.Listening is the cheapest concession you can make.


What Reciprocity (Concessionary) What Reciprocity (Concessionary) Language Is and Is NotLanguage Is and Is Not

Know It AllsKnow It Alls ““Reciprocators”Reciprocators” Know NothingsKnow Nothings

ImperiousImperious

DogmaticDogmatic

CondescendingCondescending

ArrogantArrogant

InfallibleInfallible

SmugSmug

Disdainful/ Disdainful/ DisparagingDisparaging

ContemptuousContemptuous

Respectful (of others Respectful (of others and their views)and their views)

Acknowledge (other Acknowledge (other possible viewpoints)possible viewpoints)

EmpatheticEmpathetic

IndecisiveIndecisive

DoubtfulDoubtful

MeekMeek

TimidTimid

WeakWeak

EquivocalEquivocal

MousyMousy

Wishy-WashyWishy-Washy


Liking: Similarity and EmpathyLiking: Similarity and Empathy

We are more likely to be influenced by people we know and We are more likely to be influenced by people we know and like.like.

Who do we like? We like people:Who do we like? We like people:

1. Who are similar to us (Similarity Principle)1. Who are similar to us (Similarity Principle)2. Who like us.2. Who like us.

““Like” = We like people who are positive, respectful, Like” = We like people who are positive, respectful, appreciative, empathetic. appreciative, empathetic.

Are you liked? That is, do you like others?Are you liked? That is, do you like others?


Liking: Similarity and Empathy (continued)Liking: Similarity and Empathy (continued)

Dale Carnegie. Emotional Intelligence.Dale Carnegie. Emotional Intelligence.

People who are effective and not likeable.People who are effective and not likeable.

Likeability and assertiveness are not two ends of the Likeability and assertiveness are not two ends of the same dimension.same dimension.


Assertiveness and EmpathyAssertiveness and Empathy1.1. Conventional understanding: this is one dimensionConventional understanding: this is one dimension..

Likable/EmotionallyLikable/Emotionally Assertiveness Assertiveness Intelligent Intelligent

AssertivenessAssertiveness

Standing up for your views Standing up for your views and principlesand principlesStrongStrongConvictionConvictionDecisiveDecisiveHigh standardsHigh standardsAnalyticalAnalyticalFocus on the argument, Focus on the argument, the data (logos oriented)the data (logos oriented)

Likable/EILikable/EI

EmpatheticEmpatheticListening Listening Concern for process andConcern for process and interpersonal relationshipsinterpersonal relationshipsRespectfulRespectfulCare and concernCare and concernAppreciativeAppreciativeComplimentaryComplimentaryPositive/upbeatPositive/upbeat


Assertiveness and Empathy (continued)Assertiveness and Empathy (continued)

2. This is a false choice. There are really two dimensions.2. This is a false choice. There are really two dimensions.

highhigh

highhigh

lowlow

lowlow

AssertivenessAssertiveness

Likable/EILikable/EI


About Abraham Lincoln…About Abraham Lincoln…

““Not often in the story of mankind has a man Not often in the story of mankind has a man arrived on earth who is both steel and velvet, arrived on earth who is both steel and velvet, who is as hard as rock, and soft as drifting who is as hard as rock, and soft as drifting fog. There was in his heart and mind the fog. There was in his heart and mind the

paradox of terrible storm and peace, paradox of terrible storm and peace, unspeakable…”unspeakable…”

Carl SandburgCarl SandburgAddress to U.S. Congress on Address to U.S. Congress on the the sesquicentennial of Lincoln’s sesquicentennial of Lincoln’s birth, birth, February 12, 1959.February 12, 1959.


For further questions, suggestions, or comments about For further questions, suggestions, or comments about persuasion, contact:persuasion, contact:

Professor Gary OrrenProfessor Gary Orren

Kennedy School of GovernmentKennedy School of GovernmentHarvard UniversityHarvard UniversityCambridge, MA 02138Cambridge, MA 02138

E-mail:E-mail: [email protected][email protected] Tel:Tel: 617-495-1158617-495-1158

Fax:Fax: 617-496-5960617-496-5960


PowerPower

PnegotiationPnegotiation

PersuasionPersuasion


Uncertain ElectionUncertain ElectionWhen there is a When there is a conflict, who has a conflict, who has a more legitimate more legitimate claim to the claim to the presidency?presidency?New York TimesNew York Times//CBS News Poll, CBS News Poll,

Nov. 10-12, 2000Nov. 10-12, 2000

45%39%

10%6%

Popular Vote Winner

Electoral Vote Winner

Neither

No Response

All AdultsAll Adults

63%

24%

7%6%

Gore VotersGore Voters

21%

67%

7%5%

Bush VotersBush Voters

3 46 78


1 =

2 =

3 =

4 =

5 =

6 =

7 =

8 =

9 =

1 2 3

4 5 6

7 8 9


Principles of PersuasionPrinciples of Persuasion

1.1. Logos, ethos, pathos, agora, and syzygyLogos, ethos, pathos, agora, and syzygy

2.2. Simplicity/ClaritySimplicity/Clarity

3.3. Know the audience and its predispositionsKnow the audience and its predispositions

4.4. SalienceSalience

5.5. Analogies/MetaphorsAnalogies/Metaphors

6.6. Storytelling, Examples/DemonstrationsStorytelling, Examples/Demonstrations

7.7. Counter-intuitive sources and argumentsCounter-intuitive sources and arguments

8.8. Active vs. Passive AudienceActive vs. Passive Audience

9.9. RepetitionRepetition

10.10. Personalizing Personalizing (continued)(continued)


2

Principles of Persuasion (continued)Principles of Persuasion (continued)

11.11. Authority/CredibilityAuthority/Credibility

12.12. Conformity/Social proof, Similarity Conformity/Social proof, Similarity

13.13. Reciprocation Reciprocation

14.14. Humor Humor

15.15. Liking/AssociationLiking/Association

16.16. ScarcityScarcity

17.17. Commitment/ConsistencyCommitment/Consistency

18.18. ContrastContrast

19.19. Four types of attitude changeFour types of attitude change

20.20. Empathy, Listening and FeedbackEmpathy, Listening and FeedbackCopyright © 2003 by Gary Orren

3

Biggest Challenges to PersuasionBiggest Challenges to Persuasion

1.1. Persuasion principles are self-evident. Persuasion is too easy. Persuasion principles are self-evident. Persuasion is too easy.

2.2. Persuasion is unethical. It is mere manipulation.Persuasion is unethical. It is mere manipulation.

3.3. Persuasion is an innate skill. Persuasion is too hard. Some Persuasion is an innate skill. Persuasion is too hard. Some people are natural born persuaders, most aren’t.people are natural born persuaders, most aren’t.


Logos, Ethos, PathosLogos, Ethos, Pathos

Aristotle’s Aristotle’s RhetoricRhetoric: :

• Logos: logical, coherent, cogent argument.Logos: logical, coherent, cogent argument.

• Ethos: the characteristics of the messenger. Ethos: the characteristics of the messenger.

• Pathos: the motives, feelings, attitudes, and Pathos: the motives, feelings, attitudes, and knowledge of knowledge of the audiencethe audience

Logos:Logos:

• Necessary but not sufficientNecessary but not sufficient

• Frequent failure of good logos argumentFrequent failure of good logos argument

• Cognitive and affective attitudesCognitive and affective attitudes


AgoraAgora

A gathering place, especially the marketplace A gathering place, especially the marketplace in ancient Greece.in ancient Greece.

The The contextcontext::

a. Where? The physical milieu: a. Where? The physical milieu: setting (place, culture), channels, rules setting (place, culture), channels, rules

b. When? Timingb. When? Timing


SyzygySyzygy

'siz-'siz-əə-jë (-jë (from the Greek syn, to join, and sygon, to yoke.)from the Greek syn, to join, and sygon, to yoke.)The rare alignment of celestial bodies, such as the sun, The rare alignment of celestial bodies, such as the sun, moon, and earth during an eclipse, influencing the moon, and earth during an eclipse, influencing the earth’s gravitational system.earth’s gravitational system. Persuasion goal: combining and balancing logos, ethos, Persuasion goal: combining and balancing logos, ethos, pathos, and agora. Aligning the key elements.pathos, and agora. Aligning the key elements.


L E A P SL E A P S

L = LogosL = Logos

E = EthosE = Ethos

A = AgoraA = Agora

P = PathosP = Pathos

S = SyzygyS = Syzygy


LEAPS FrameworkLEAPS Framework

LogosLogos MessageMessage Content of the argument, Content of the argument, reasons, datareasons, data

EthosEthos MessengerMessenger Character, credibility, Character, credibility, plusplus other characteristics other characteristics

PathosPathos AudienceAudience Emotions Emotions plusplus other other predispositions (affective predispositions (affective and cognitive)and cognitive)

AgoraAgora ContextContext Where or when (setting, Where or when (setting, channels, rules, timing)channels, rules, timing)

SyzygySyzygy AlignmentAlignment Reasonable balance Reasonable balance among the other elementsamong the other elements


Analogies/MetaphorsAnalogies/Metaphors

• Using existing categories in people’s Using existing categories in people’s minds (recall selective perception minds (recall selective perception exercise).exercise).

• Retention by my students: stickinessRetention by my students: stickiness

• Religious textsReligious texts

• Lincoln, ReaganLincoln, Reagan

• Must get metaphor “right.”Must get metaphor “right.”


Counter-intuitiveCounter-intuitive

• Counter-intuitive sources and arguments.Counter-intuitive sources and arguments.

• Novel, fresh, surprising information may be Novel, fresh, surprising information may be necessary to cause people to modify their necessary to cause people to modify their predispositions and beliefs.predispositions and beliefs.


Commitment/ConsistencyCommitment/Consistency

People feel personal and interpersonal pressures to honor and to behave People feel personal and interpersonal pressures to honor and to behave consistently with their prior commitments. People wish to be (and to appear consistently with their prior commitments. People wish to be (and to appear to be) consistent with what they have already said and done.to be) consistent with what they have already said and done.

Small initial commitments (foot in the door) can be leveraged into much Small initial commitments (foot in the door) can be leveraged into much larger commitments.larger commitments.

Commitments are most powerful when they are:Commitments are most powerful when they are:

1.1. Active (ex. written vs. oral)Active (ex. written vs. oral)

2.2. PublicPublic

3.3. EffortfulEffortful

4.4. Felt to be an inner responsibility (one has voluntarily chosen to make Felt to be an inner responsibility (one has voluntarily chosen to make commitment without strong outside pressure)commitment without strong outside pressure)

Action Question:Action Question:

Can I do this persuasion in stages so that I can get an initial commitment?Can I do this persuasion in stages so that I can get an initial commitment?


Active vs. Passive AudienceActive vs. Passive Audience

• Commitment Principle Commitment Principle

• Capturing attention vs. engaging the mind.Capturing attention vs. engaging the mind.


• More learning and more retention More learning and more retention with repetition.with repetition.

• “ “Double your pleasure….”Double your pleasure….”

RepetitionRepetition


Coins (of the Realm) and Their Flip SidesCoins (of the Realm) and Their Flip Sides

PrinciplesPrinciples:: When They Go WrongWhen They Go Wrong::

KISSKISS Over-simplifyingOver-simplifying

Know the audience andKnow the audience and PanderingPandering its predispositionsits predispositions

StorytellingStorytelling Mere storytelling, war storiesMere storytelling, war stories

RepetitionRepetition Ad NauseumAd Nauseum

PersonalizingPersonalizing Over-personalizingOver-personalizing

AuthorityAuthority AuthoritarianAuthoritarian“smarty-pants,” “know it all”“smarty-pants,” “know it all”

ConvictionConviction Excessive certitudeExcessive certitudeblind zealotryblind zealotry


Authority/CredibilityAuthority/Credibility

We are more likely to be persuaded (even without the inclination We are more likely to be persuaded (even without the inclination to do so) by someone who is perceived to be an authority.to do so) by someone who is perceived to be an authority.

The two key elements of credible authority: knowledge/expertise The two key elements of credible authority: knowledge/expertise and trustworthiness.and trustworthiness.

ConvictionConviction

Milgram experiments.Milgram experiments.

Action Questions:Action Questions:

Why should the audience accept my word? Especially if I am not Why should the audience accept my word? Especially if I am not well known to the audience: How can I convey my expertise and well known to the audience: How can I convey my expertise and integrity? Who else/what else can vouch for my credibility? Can integrity? Who else/what else can vouch for my credibility? Can I say something which is apparently contrary to my self-interest?I say something which is apparently contrary to my self-interest?


Conformity/Social ProofConformity/Social Proof

People are often persuaded to change their attitudes or behavior People are often persuaded to change their attitudes or behavior in response to real or imagined group pressure.in response to real or imagined group pressure.

The power of social norms.The power of social norms.

Conformity is a time-saving device, increases chances of being Conformity is a time-saving device, increases chances of being correct, yields social approval or avoids disapproval.correct, yields social approval or avoids disapproval.

Solomon Asch experiments.Solomon Asch experiments.


Who else can speak for me or my cause? Who else can speak for me or my cause?

Who can better invoke peer pressure than me?Who can better invoke peer pressure than me?


Tips on ListeningTips on Listening

1.1. Suspend judgment.Suspend judgment.

2.2. Paraphrase your understanding of speaker's words.Paraphrase your understanding of speaker's words.

3.3. Ask questions for clarification (with genuine intent to learn).Ask questions for clarification (with genuine intent to learn).

4.4. Acknowledge the speaker's concerns, strengths, feelings, Acknowledge the speaker's concerns, strengths, feelings, efforts.efforts.

5.5. Be an active listener. Avoid rehearsing your next response Be an active listener. Avoid rehearsing your next response while "listening." People can usually tell when someone is while "listening." People can usually tell when someone is listening with their full attention.listening with their full attention.

6.6. Good body language (e.g., eye contact, empathetic noises, Good body language (e.g., eye contact, empathetic noises, nods).nods).


ReciprocityReciprocity1. Tangible (free samples)1. Tangible (free samples)

2. Intangible2. Intangible

a. Ideas, Informationa. Ideas, Informationex: Info for the Mediaex: Info for the Media

b. Expressions of Appreciation, disclosure, b. Expressions of Appreciation, disclosure, acknowledgement acknowledgement

c. Concessions: What Can I Afford to Give Awayc. Concessions: What Can I Afford to Give Away

1. Substantive1. Substantiveex: Recommendations (conveys ex: Recommendations (conveys

objectivity, objectivity, honesty) honesty)

2. Stylistic 2. Stylistic Verbal and Non-VerbalVerbal and Non-Verbal


Reciprocity

Special challenge for high achieving smart, logos-oriented, strong conviction.

Al Gore

Concessionary language which does not compromise your authoritativeness


Reciprocity

Balancing other principlesAuthority (esp. principles)

Knowing your stuff vs. know it all

Agora (context)History and Nature of Relationships

Organization and cultural norms (esp. Dominate subordinate)

Power vs. Persuasion

Donna Dubinsky


HumorHumor

Humor evokes:Humor evokes:

1.1. The Reciprocation principle.The Reciprocation principle.

2.2. The Liking principle.The Liking principle.

3.3. Interestingness.Interestingness.

Humor which is self-deprecating, self-mocking, self-parody is Humor which is self-deprecating, self-mocking, self-parody is effective (reciprocation, concession, and vulnerability).effective (reciprocation, concession, and vulnerability).


Liking/AssociationLiking/AssociationWe are more likely to be influenced by people We are more likely to be influenced by people we know and like.we know and like.

We like people:We like people:

1.1. Who like us.Who like us.

2.2. Who are similar to us.Who are similar to us.

3.3. Who have cooperated with us for common Who have cooperated with us for common goals.goals.

4.4. With whom we have pleasant associations.With whom we have pleasant associations.

Lois Weisberg, a ConnectorLois Weisberg, a ConnectorCopyright © 2005 by Gary Orren

Liking/Association Liking/Association (continued)(continued)

““Like” = positive, respectful, appreciative, empatheticLike” = positive, respectful, appreciative, empathetic

The power of genuine praise, compliments (versus The power of genuine praise, compliments (versus flattery). George Burns.flattery). George Burns.


What What genuinelygenuinely admirable qualities does my audience admirable qualities does my audience have?have?

Is there a Is there a genuinegenuine similarity between me and my similarity between me and my audience? audience?


Liking/Association Liking/Association (continued)(continued)

Likeability and assertiveness are not two ends of Likeability and assertiveness are not two ends of a single dimension. To be “likeable” we need not a single dimension. To be “likeable” we need not relinquish our critical faculties. relinquish our critical faculties.

Abraham Lincoln.Abraham Lincoln.


Liking/Association (continued)Liking/Association (continued)A confrontive question: are you “likable,” i.e. do you A confrontive question: are you “likable,” i.e. do you “like” others?“like” others?

Effective but unlikable leaders: Effective but unlikable leaders: Persuasion vs. PowerPersuasion vs. PowerShort run vs. middle, Short run vs. middle, long runlong run

Dale Carnegie.Dale Carnegie.

Emotional Intelligence: substantial overlap with Liking.Emotional Intelligence: substantial overlap with Liking.

The Good news about Emotional Intelligence and The Good news about Emotional Intelligence and persuasionpersuasion (The Talent Myth, etc.)(The Talent Myth, etc.)


Liking/Association (continued)Liking/Association (continued)The Association principle: connecting a person, product, The Association principle: connecting a person, product, or idea to something we feel positive about.or idea to something we feel positive about.

• Food StampsFood Stamps

• Australian immigration human rights vs. national Australian immigration human rights vs. national securitysecurity

Framing: Either you frame your issue, or you get framed.Framing: Either you frame your issue, or you get framed.

Face of the IssueFace of the Issue• PositionPosition• ValuesValues• PerformancePerformance

Video adsVideo adsCopyright © 2005 by Gary Orren

Learning and Developing the Artistry of Learning and Developing the Artistry of Persuasion (Mostly Good News)Persuasion (Mostly Good News)

1. Persuasiveness is not entirely innate.

2. We can learn, acquire, develop, cultivate new habits and skills of persuasion and improve old ones.

3. Other personal talents (e.g. intelligence) are more difficult to nurture and change.

4. Success in adult life (professional and personal) probably depends more on persuasion skills than on native intelligence.

5. It is extremely unlikely that a person will totally transform his/her persuasion

skills.

6. Rather, people can make marginal improvements in their persuasion skills.

7. But these marginal improvements can be decisive in how successful people are in persuasion. That is because we rarely lose our most important persuasion projects by a lopsided landslide.


ScarcityScarcity

• Opportunities seem more valuable when their availability is Opportunities seem more valuable when their availability is limited.limited.

• Applies to information and ideas, not just commodities.Applies to information and ideas, not just commodities.

• Couch your persuasion argument in terms of what an Couch your persuasion argument in terms of what an audience stands to audience stands to loselose, not just in terms of the anticipated , not just in terms of the anticipated benefits (since loss appears to be a more motivating concept benefits (since loss appears to be a more motivating concept than gain).than gain).

• Information that is scarce, new, or exclusive should be stated Information that is scarce, new, or exclusive should be stated early in a persuasion message (establishing a strong reason for early in a persuasion message (establishing a strong reason for people to listen). people to listen).


Can I tell my audience something that is scarce, new, or exclusive? Can I tell my audience something that is scarce, new, or exclusive? Can I help my audience avoid a loss? Can I help my audience avoid a loss?


Four Types of Attitude ChangeFour Types of Attitude Change

1.1. ConversionConversion

2.2. ReinforcementReinforcement

3.3. ActivationActivation

4.4. De-activationDe-activation

Have your strategic objective clearly in mind. Which Have your strategic objective clearly in mind. Which type of attitude change is most appropriate for your type of attitude change is most appropriate for your persuasion situation?persuasion situation?

We tend to assume that conversion is always our goal.We tend to assume that conversion is always our goal.

X = Your viewX = Your viewY = Opposing ViewY = Opposing View

XX

Y Y X X

Y Y DK? DK?

DK? XDK? X


C A R DC A R D

C = ConversionC = Conversion

A = ActivationA = Activation

R = ReinforcementR = Reinforcement

D = De-ActivationD = De-Activation


Targeting StrategiesTargeting Strategies

Unmovable Unmovable Opponents Opponents

No EffortNo Effort

OpponentsOpponents

De-activate De-activate

ororConvertConvert

Uncommitted Uncommitted and and

UninvolvedUninvolved

No EfforNo Effortt

Uncommitted Uncommitted and Involvedand Involved

ActivateActivate

AlliesAllies

ReinforceReinforce

Hard-core Hard-core AlliesAllies

No EffortNo Effort


Primer for PolemicistsPrimer for PolemicistsOwen HarriesOwen Harries

Rule 1Rule 1: Forget about trying to convert your adversary. In any serious ideological : Forget about trying to convert your adversary. In any serious ideological confrontation the chances of success on this score are so remote as to exclude it as a rational confrontation the chances of success on this score are so remote as to exclude it as a rational objective.objective.

Rule 2Rule 2: Pay great attention to the agenda of the debate. He who defines the issues, and : Pay great attention to the agenda of the debate. He who defines the issues, and determines their priority, is already well on the way to winning.determines their priority, is already well on the way to winning.

Rule 3Rule 3: Preaching to the converted, far from being a superfluous activity, is vital. : Preaching to the converted, far from being a superfluous activity, is vital. Preachers do it every Sunday. The strengthening of the commitment, intellectual Preachers do it every Sunday. The strengthening of the commitment, intellectual performance, and morale of those already on your side is an essential task, both in order to performance, and morale of those already on your side is an essential task, both in order to bind them more securely to the cause and to make them more effective exponents of it.bind them more securely to the cause and to make them more effective exponents of it.

Rule 4Rule 4: Never forget the uncommitted: almost invariably, they constitute the vast majority.: Never forget the uncommitted: almost invariably, they constitute the vast majority.

Rule 5Rule 5: Be aware that, at least potentially, you are addressing multiple audiences. Decide : Be aware that, at least potentially, you are addressing multiple audiences. Decide whether, on a particular occasion, you want to make a broad appeal to many audiences, whether, on a particular occasion, you want to make a broad appeal to many audiences, which will usually involve compromise and restraint in presentation, or whether you want which will usually involve compromise and restraint in presentation, or whether you want to make a sharply focused pitch to a particular audience, even at the risk of alienating to make a sharply focused pitch to a particular audience, even at the risk of alienating others.others.

Rule 6Rule 6: Be prepared to go around the block many times. When you have a good point to : Be prepared to go around the block many times. When you have a good point to make, keep repeating it.make, keep repeating it.

(continued)(continued)Copyright © 2005 by Gary Orren

Primer for Polemicists (continued)Primer for Polemicists (continued)

Rule 7Rule 7: Shave with Occam’s razor. Knowing what you can afford to give away is one of the : Shave with Occam’s razor. Knowing what you can afford to give away is one of the greatest arts of polemic.greatest arts of polemic.

Rule 8Rule 8: Be very careful in your use of examples and historical analogies. Both are often : Be very careful in your use of examples and historical analogies. Both are often powerful and persuasive ways of bringing a point home, particularly when the analogy links powerful and persuasive ways of bringing a point home, particularly when the analogy links the subject at issue to the personal experience of the audience. But you should generally be the subject at issue to the personal experience of the audience. But you should generally be economical in the use of analogies, choose carefully, and be well armed to develop and economical in the use of analogies, choose carefully, and be well armed to develop and defend the ones you choose.defend the ones you choose.

Rule 9Rule 9: When bolstering the authority of what you are saying by the use of quotation, give : When bolstering the authority of what you are saying by the use of quotation, give preference whenever possible to sources which are not identified with your case.preference whenever possible to sources which are not identified with your case.

Rule 10Rule 10: Avoid trading in motives as an alternative to rebutting the opposing case.: Avoid trading in motives as an alternative to rebutting the opposing case.

Rule 11Rule 11: Emulate the iceberg. In any polemical exchange, make sure that you know several : Emulate the iceberg. In any polemical exchange, make sure that you know several times more about a topic than you can conceivably use or show.times more about a topic than you can conceivably use or show.

Rule 12Rule 12: Know your enemy. Always bear in mind John Stuart Mill’s observation that he : Know your enemy. Always bear in mind John Stuart Mill’s observation that he who knows only his own position knows little of that. Take particular care to understand who knows only his own position knows little of that. Take particular care to understand the position of your adversary—and to understand it not in a caricatured or superficial the position of your adversary—and to understand it not in a caricatured or superficial form, but at its strongest, for until you have rebutted it at its strongest, you have not form, but at its strongest, for until you have rebutted it at its strongest, you have not rebutted it at all.rebutted it at all.


Three Persuasion ClustersThree Persuasion Clusters LogosLogosSimplicity/ClaritySimplicity/Clarity Analogies/Metaphors Analogies/Metaphors Counter-intuitiveCounter-intuitive StorytellingStorytellingSalienceSalienceScarcityScarcityContrastContrastRepetitionRepetition

EthosEthosAuthority/CredibilityAuthority/CredibilityLiking/AssociationLiking/AssociationReciprocationReciprocationListening Listening Personalizing Personalizing HumorHumor

PathosPathosKnow the audienceKnow the audienceKnow the contextKnow the contextConformityConformityCommitmentCommitmentActive vs. PassiveActive vs. PassiveCARDCARD


Attribution ErrorsAttribution ErrorsWhen trying to explain why someone behaved in a particular way, we can When trying to explain why someone behaved in a particular way, we can attribute the causes of that behavior either to:attribute the causes of that behavior either to:

1.1. Dispositional causesDispositional causes: something : something withinwithin the individual (e.g. personal the individual (e.g. personal attitudes, beliefs, character, personality traits), factors mostly within attitudes, beliefs, character, personality traits), factors mostly within the individual’s control the individual’s control

OROR

2.2. Situational causesSituational causes: something : something outsideoutside the person in the social or the person in the social or physical environment, factors mostly beyond the individual’s control. physical environment, factors mostly beyond the individual’s control.

Two common biases:Two common biases:

1.1. When explaining When explaining others’others’ behavior behavior

We tend to overestimate dispositional causes and We tend to overestimate dispositional causes and underestimate situational causes. (Accuser bias)underestimate situational causes. (Accuser bias)

2.2. When explaining our When explaining our ownown behavior behavior

We tend to overestimate situational causes and underestimate We tend to overestimate situational causes and underestimate dispositional causes. (Bias of the accused)dispositional causes. (Bias of the accused)


Biggest Challenges to PersuasionBiggest Challenges to Persuasion

1.1. Persuasion principles are self-evident. Persuasion is too easy.Persuasion principles are self-evident. Persuasion is too easy.

Answer: Conceptually that is true, but not in practice.Answer: Conceptually that is true, but not in practice.

2.2. Persuasion is unethical. It is mere manipulation.Persuasion is unethical. It is mere manipulation.

Answer: The techniques of persuasion, like many other Answer: The techniques of persuasion, like many other technologies, are neither inherently good nor evil. They can technologies, are neither inherently good nor evil. They can be used to advance noble or pernicious purposes.be used to advance noble or pernicious purposes.

3.3. Persuasion is an innate skill. Persuasion is too hard. Some Persuasion is an innate skill. Persuasion is too hard. Some people are natural born persuaders, most aren’t.people are natural born persuaders, most aren’t.

Answer: That is true. However with sustained practice most Answer: That is true. However with sustained practice most of us can improve our persuasion skills, and that may be of us can improve our persuasion skills, and that may be decisive.decisive. Copyright © 2005 by Gary Orren

In management, 2 percent of In management, 2 percent of the problem is making a the problem is making a decision, 98 percent is decision, 98 percent is persuading others to accept persuading others to accept the decision.the decision.

Elliot RichardsonElliot Richardson• U.S. Attorney GeneralU.S. Attorney General• U.S. Secretary of DefenseU.S. Secretary of Defense• Secretary of Department of Health, Secretary of Department of Health,

Education, and WelfareEducation, and Welfare• Secretary of CommerceSecretary of Commerce• Under Secretary of StateUnder Secretary of State• Ambassador to Great BritainAmbassador to Great Britain• Massachusetts Lt. GovernorMassachusetts Lt. Governor• Massachusetts Attorney GeneralMassachusetts Attorney General


Sun Tzu, Sun Tzu, The Art of WarThe Art of War

““The means by which enlightened rulers The means by which enlightened rulers and sagacious generals moved and conquered and sagacious generals moved and conquered others, that their achievements surpassed the others, that their achievements surpassed the masses, was advance knowledge.masses, was advance knowledge.

Advance knowledge cannot be gained from Advance knowledge cannot be gained from ghosts and spirits, inferred from phenomena, or ghosts and spirits, inferred from phenomena, or projected from the measures of Heaven, but projected from the measures of Heaven, but must be gained from men for it is the knowledge must be gained from men for it is the knowledge of the enemy’s true situation.of the enemy’s true situation.


““Faced with the choice Faced with the choice between changing one's mind between changing one's mind and proving there is no need and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets to do so, almost everyone gets

busy on the proof.”busy on the proof.”

JohnJohn KennethKenneth GalbraithGalbraith


““Leadership is the art Leadership is the art of getting someone else of getting someone else

to do something you to do something you want done because he want done because he

wants to do it.”wants to do it.”

Dwight D. EisenhowerDwight D. Eisenhower


““The feeble tremble The feeble tremble before public opinion, before public opinion, the foolish deny it, the the foolish deny it, the

wise judge it, the wise judge it, the skillful direct it.”skillful direct it.”

Jeanne-Marie RolandJeanne-Marie Roland French Revolutionary (circa French Revolutionary (circa

1792)1792)


In Conclusion:In Conclusion:

What do we do next?What do we do next?

Where do we go from here?Where do we go from here?

The two responsibilities of persuasion: The two responsibilities of persuasion:

To be ethical and to be effectiveTo be ethical and to be effective

An answer to the biggest challenge: An answer to the biggest challenge:

Is persuasiveness fundamentally Is persuasiveness fundamentally innate?innate?


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