peru: economic and social outlook - mef...stable outlook bbb / bbb+ stable outlook (1) foreign...
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Peru: Economic and
Social Outlook
January, 2012
Luis Miguel Castilla
Minister of Economy and Finance
Peru – Key Investment Highlights
2
Highest growth in the region with moderated inflation
Economic dynamism
across sectors
Exports at record levels
and increasing its
diversification
Healthy external debt
levels
Sound fiscal position allows countercyclical
policy
Reduced unemployment
and poverty
Outstanding economic
perspectives
Baa3 / Baa3 (1)
Positive outlook
BBB / BBB+
Stable outlook
BBB / BBB+
Stable outlook
(1) Foreign Currency rating / Local Currency rating
Sound Macroeconomic
Performance
Peru 73,2
Argentina59,9
Colombia 46,8
Ecuador45,9 Brazil
40,3
Chile 39,5
Mexico 18,9
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15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
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In recent years, Peru has been among the fastest growing economies in the world
World’s GDP 2002-2010
(Accum. % Change)
Source: IMF .
4
Peru achieved the lowest inflation rate of the region between 2002-2011
5
1/ Average inflation of Argentina and Mexico up to November, 2011. Source: IMF, Bloomberg.
Average Inflation in Latin America 2002-20111
( % )
Tomar periodo 24.0
11.0
6.75.1
4.43.2
2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Venezuela Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico Chile Peru
Peru – Key Investment Highlights
Source: IMF .
6
6.8
5.4
5.6
6.2
6.4
7.5
8.4
8.4
0 2 4 6 8 10
Perú
Agriculture and Livestock
Electricity and Water
Commerce
Other Services
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
8.8
-0.1
4.3
7.4
7.7
9.7
13.6
17.4
-2 3 8 13 18 23
Perú
Mining
Agriculture and Livestock
Other Services
Electricity and Water
Commerce
Manufacturing
Construction
GDP Breakdown by sector 2005
GDP Breakdown per Sector 2005 (Annual % change)
GDP Breakdown per Sector 2010 (Annual % change)
GDP Breakdown by sector 2010
8%
1%
7%
15%
2%
5%
14%
38%
Agriculture and Livestock
Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity and Water
Construction
Commerce
Other Services
7%
0%
5%
15%
2%
7%
15%
39%
Agriculture and Livestock
Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity and Water
Construction
Commerce
Other Services
In 2011 Peru grew close to 7% and continues to be one the most dynamic economies of the region
7
LATAM: GDP 2011 (Annual % change)
Source: MEF, IMF, Consensus Forecasts.
Peru: GDP 2011 (Annual % change)
6.8
6.2
5.2
3.93.7
2.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Peru Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela Brazil
Nominal GDP accounted for USD 153,919 millions in 2010.
Cumulative GDP to 3Q11 is around US$ 130,248 million.
8.9
6.8 6.6
7.46.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Jan-Sep 2011 2011*
Economic dynamism prevails
8
Construction (annualized % change rolling quarter, seasonally adjusted)
Credit to Private Sector
(Annual % change) Electricity Production
(Annual % change)
Source: BCRP, SUNAT.
8.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
J-10 M-10 S-10 J-11 M-11 S-11 D-11
23,5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
S-10 N-10 E-11 M-11 M-11 J-11 S-11O-11
Private Vehicles Imports (Millions of US$)
5
10
15
20
25
D-09 M-10 J-10 S-10 D-10 M-11 J-11 S-11 D-11
Nuevos Soles
Total
20.1
21.3
126
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
F-10 M-10 A-10 N-10 F-11 M-11 A-11 N-11D-11
And the exchange rate of the Peruvian Nuevo Sol is one of the less volatile currencies in the region
9
Relative volatility of some Latin American currencies (Base: January 03, 2000 = 3,509 Nuevos soles/USD)
Source: Bloomberg, MEF
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
8,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
8,00
2 0122 0112 0102 0092 0082 0072 0062 0052 0042 0032 0022 0012 000
Perú Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico
In 2011 exports achieved record levels
10
Total Exports (Millions of US$)
Trade Balance (Millions of US$)
• In 2011 exports surpassed US$ 45 billion, a historical record. • The trade balance reached a surplus of around US$ 8 billion.
• Preliminary estimates. Source: BCRP.
6,955
17,368
34,444
45,019
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2005 Jan-Sep 2011 2011*
-403
5,286
6,951
7,922
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2000 2005 Jan-Sep 2011 2011*
Current account deficit is sustainable
• Preliminary estimates. Source: BCRP.
11
Current Account & Financial Account (% of GDP)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Current account
Financial account
Net foreign direct investment (Millions of US$)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Solid banking system and low exposure to European banks
1/ Capital Adequacy Ratio: risk weighted assets and contingent loans to regulatory capital. 2/. As of November, 2011. Source: BCRP, Goldman Sachs.
12
European Banks as a Share of Total Bank Credit (% of total loans)
Dollarization Ratio2
(%)
Solvency indicator of banking1
(%)
68
39
79
44
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Liquidity Credit
Participation of European Banks in LATAM Financial System (% of bank capital)
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
S-07 F-08 J-08 D-08 M-09 O-09 M-10 A-10 E-11 J-11 N-11
Prudencial Requirements
Banking Law
International Standard
Prudencial Requirements
Banking Law
International Standard
48
30
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mexico Chile Peru
49
2927
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mexico Chile Peru
More decentralized employment
13
Employment in companies with 10 or more employees – Main Cities
(Accumulated % change Jan-Nov 2011/Jan–Nov 2005)
Source: INEI, MINTRA.
Urban Employment (Annual % change)
1.92.4
3.8
7.1
8.6 8.6
1.6
4.0
5.5
1.3
3.6
6.4
8.3
7.27.6
0.7
4.4
5.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Metropolitan Lima
Other Urban
Jan-Nov11
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Iquitos
Cajamarca
Pucallpa
Sullana
Pisco
Ica
Chincha
Chiclayo
Cusco
Huaraz
Talara
Tacna
Tarapoto
Paita
Huancayo
Trujillo
Arequipa
Puno
Piura
Average Grotwh
40%
Employment in Metropolitan Lima by type (% of total EAP1)
Average Quarterly Income Index (Jan. 2007=100)
Increase in adequate employment and income
1/ EAP: Economically Active Population. Source: INEI.
134
138
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1T07 3T07 1T08 3T08 1T09 3T09 1T10 3T10 1T11 3T11
Urban Peru Metropolitan Lima
14
59
41
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
nov-jan07 jun-aug08 jan-mar10 aug-oct11
Adequate Employment Underemployment
Peru is an investment-grade Latam country
15
Peru’s Foreign Sovereign Rating
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, Moody’s.
Foreign Country Sovereign Ratings
Local Country Sovereign Ratings
Peru’s Local Sovereign Rating
Solid external accounts and lower external vulnerability versus Baa2 and Baa3 countries
Source: Moodys, Central Banks.
16
113
94
56
32
30
18
8
0 50 100 150
Chile (Aa3)
Kazakhstan (Baa2)
Colombia (Baa3)
Brazil (Baa2)
Panama (Baa3)
Peru (Baa3)
Mauritius (Baa2) Average Baa3
Average Baa2
2.9 1.9
-1.5 -2.3 -3.2
-8.1 -8.4-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Kaza
khsta
n (
Baa2)
Chile
(A
a3)
Peru
(B
aa3)
Bra
zil (B
aa2)
Co
lom
bia
(B
aa3)
Panam
a (
Baa3)
Mauritius (
Baa2)
Average Baa3
Average Baa2
1/ (Short-Term External Debt + Currently Maturing Long-Term External Debt + Total Nonresident Deposits Over One Year)/Official Foreign Exchange Reserves.
External vulnerability indicator1 Current account balance 2010 (% of GDP)
2927
25
14 13 13
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Peru
(B
aa3)
Mauritius
(Baa2)
Kaza
khsta
n
(Baa2)
Bra
zil
(Baa2)
Chile
(A
a3)
Co
lom
bia
(B
aa3)
Panam
a
(Baa3)
Average Baa3
Average Baa2
8.6
3.4 3.1 3.1
1.8 1.50.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
Panam
a (
Baa3)
Peru
(B
aa3)
Mauritius (
Baa2)
Chile
(A
a3)
Bra
zil (B
aa2)
Kaza
khsta
n
(Baa2)
Co
lom
bia
(B
aa3)
Average Baa2
Average Baa3
Official Forex Reserves 2010 (% of GDP)
Net Foreign Direct Investment 2010 (% of GDP)
Solid Fiscal Accounts
18
* Preliminary estimates. Source: BCRP, MEF, MMF 2012-2014 Revised.
Total Gross Public Sector Debt
(% of GDP)
Fiscal Stabilization Fund 2011
(Billions of US$)
Solid Public Finances and Fiscal Commitment
Non-Financial Public Sector Result
(% of GDP)
Total External Debt Service (% of exports of goods and services)
2,2
3,1
2,3
-1,6
-0,5
4,2
1,6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
2011*
0,3
5,6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec 2005 Set 2011
33,0
29,7
24,1
27,1 26,9
20,9 21,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
2011*
20,9
10,29,1
14,8
3,4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
Strong fiscal position and better performance than the average Baa2 and Baa3 countries in a decade
19
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Peru
Average Baa2
Average Baa3
Source: Moody´s, Central Banks.
1.4
-0.3 -0.5
-1.9-2.7 -2.9 -3.2
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Kaza
khsta
n (
Baa2)
Chile
(A
a3)
Peru
(B
aa3)
Panam
a (
Baa3)
Bra
zil (B
aa2)
Co
lom
bia
(B
aa3)
Mauritius (
Baa2)
Average Baa2
Average Baa3
Financial Balance 2001 - 2010 (% of GDP)
Financial Balance 2010 (% of GDP)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Peru
Average Baa2
Average Baa3
9 10
24
37
4450
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Chile
(A
a3)
Kaza
khsta
n
(Baa2)
Peru
(B
aa3)
Co
lom
bia
(B
aa3)
Panam
a (
Baa3)
Mauritius (
Baa2)
Bra
zil (B
aa2)
Average Baa2
Average Baa3
Public Debt 2001 - 2010 (% of GDP)
Public Debt 2010 (% of GDP)
Impact on fiscal revenues of a 35% decline in commodity prices
Source: IMF Staff estimates
20
Fiscal Revenues (% of 2010 GDP)
Impact of a 35% fall in commodity prices
1,2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Trinidad & Tobago
Bolivia
Venezuela
Ecuador
Chile
Peru
Argentina
Colombia
44,0
56,0 Variable
Fixed
Debt profile: exchange and interest rate exposure
21
Source: MEF
September 2006 September 2011
Debt denominated in local currency has more than doubled in the last 5 years
Sharply decrease in debt attached to variable rates
September 2006 September 2011
Public Debt Structure by Interest Rate (%)
Public Debt Structure by Currencies (%)
59,021,7
19,3
USDollar
Other
Nuevo Sol
46,8
6,6
46,6
22,6
77,4
Debt profile: amortization payments exposure
22
Source: MEF
September 2006 September 2011
Pressure in amortization payments has been reduced by 24.6% over the past five years.
Public Debt profile by type
Fiscal policy main guidelines of the new administration
23
1. To reach a fiscal balance in the structural accounts.
2. To hold a countercyclical fiscal position.
3. To increase permanent fiscal revenues.
4. To assure a decreasing tendency of the national debt as a percentage of GDP ratio (from 23.4% in 2010 to a 17.7% in 2014).
5. A conservative Budget for 2012 (surplus of almost 2% of GDP in 2011), but covers main priorities of the government: (i) social inclusion, (ii) human capital, (iii) citizen security, among others.
6. Designing and implementing a Contingency Plan.
Strategy to increase permanent fiscal revenues
• Fight against tax evasion.
• Fight against smuggling and undervaluation.
• Tax debt recovery.
• Tax crime and customs fraud detection and effective sanctions.
• Case for tax payment and custom facilitation.
• Tax expenditure rationalization.
24
Tax Evasion (%VAT)
1/ Central Government Revenues / GDP. Source: SUNAT.
Tax Burden1
(% of GDP)
40,6
34,7
20,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 … 2016
13,7
14,8
15,815,5
18,0
10
12
14
16
18
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
2011* … 2016*
Sound fiscal position allows to countercyclical policy stance
25
Fiscal Stabilization Fund (% of GDP)
Non-Financial Public Sector Overall Balance (% of GDP)
Non-Financial Expenditures and Current Revenues
(Annual % Change)
* Preliminary estimates. 1/ Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework Revised 2012-2014 Source: MEF.
Public Savings up to September 2011 (% of GDP)
Public Savings accounts 13,1% of GDP
2,0
6,1
17,818,5
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
2011*
General Government Non-Financial Expenditures
General Government Current Revenues
2,5
3,2
2,1
2,7
2,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Public Savings
Other Deposits
Deposits in Private Financial Institutions
Subnational GovernmentsResources (Canon, etc.)
Fiscal Stabilization Fund
Demand Deposits and TimeDeposits in Central Bank
2,3
3,1
2,3
-1,6
-0,5
4,2
0,8
1,6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
MMF 2011 1/
2011*
0,40,5
1,4 1,4 1,4
3,2
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep 2011*
Contingency Fiscal Plan
Timely, temporary and aggressive.
Combines short-run actions (transitory fiscal impulse) and long-run actions (reducing infrastructure gap, improving productivity and potential GDP).
Emphasis on poor areas:
• Infrastructure projects.
• Infrastructure maintenance.
• Small and medium enterprise procurement (SMEs).
• Guarantee Fund for SMEs and non-traditional exporters.
• Enabling feasibility studies.
• Temporary Employment Program.
Since september 2011, precautionary measures have been taken to boost fiscal impulse (1.5%-2% of GDP).
26
Fiscal Impulse in 2012
27
Source: MEF
Total Current Non-Financial Expenditures : 2006-2011 (% of GDP)
• Public Investment will grow above 30% in 2012 (after falling 6% in 2011). • Fiscal Surplus will reach around 0.8% of GDP in 2012.
12,3
12,6
12,4
12,7
11,9
11,6
11
11,2
11,4
11,6
11,8
12
12,2
12,4
12,6
12,8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Sep 2011
Social Outlook
Peru has grown steadily over the recent years and poverty has been reduced
29
Per Capita GDP (10-yr.-average, % change)
2.52.9
0.7
-3.2
2.1
4.4
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-00 01-10
Source: BCRP.
GDP tripled in 2010 compared to 2000.
Fastest per capita GDP growth since the 1950’s.
Per Capita GDP levels catching up after 3 lost decades.
Poverty has reduced from 50% to 30%.
Population has grown in the last 10 years at an average rate of 1.26%, and in 2010, it reached a
total of 29.5 million persons.
However, the challenge remains to achieve a broad based development and further social inclusion
Rural poverty doubles the national average.
30
Total Poverty and Extreme Poverty 2010: National vs. Rural (% of population)
31.3
9.8
54.2
23.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Total Poverty Extreme Poverty
National Rural
Source: INEI.
In the coming years, Peru’s main goals are further poverty reduction and social inclusion
31
Source: MEF; ENAHO and ENDES 2010 - INEI.
Variable Base Line 2010 Target 2016
1. Poverty 31.3% Poverty less than 20%
2. Extreme poverty 9.8% Extreme poverty less than 5%
3. Child chronic malnutrition 17.9% Child chronic malnutrition less than 10%
The government strategy is based on social programs that follow a “Life Cycle Approach”
32
Beca 18: S/. 136
SAMU: S/. 40
PAN: S/. 1 607
SMN: S/. 1 400
Cuna Más: S/. 190
PELA Elementary
school: S/. 2 195
PELA Primary school: S/. 4 251
PELA Secondary
school: S/. 2 833
Jóvenes a la obra:
S/. 34
Pensión 65:
S/. 241
Maternal mortality
Neonatal mortality
Chronic malnutrition Infant mortality Cognitive and Emotional development
Learning achievements
Elementary
school Coverage
Learning achieve-
ments
Secondary Coverage
Learning achieve-
ments
No dropout
Access to quality higher
education
Relevant education for
the labor market
Ensure the basic
conditions for
subsistence
Pregnancy 0 – 2 years
3 – 5 years
6 – 12 years
17 – 24 years
13 – 17 years
+ 65 years
JUNTOS: S/. 822 Millions
Public Programs (Millions of Nuevos Soles)
The 2012 Public Budget reflects the priorities of the Government related to social issues
33
The 2012 Public Budget by type of intervention (Millions of Nuevos Soles)
Distribution of the 2012 Public Budget 1
(%)
2012 social sector budget allocation has increased by approximately 20% with respect to the 2011.
1/ Out of debts service, pension duties and contingency reserves. Source: MEF
Sociales43%
Productivos24%
Administrativos16%
Gobernabilidad y orden público
17%Social
43%
Governance
Administrative
Productive 24%
Expenses Amount
Social 32,666
Productive 18,113
Administrative 12,310
Governance and Public Order 12,422
Subtotal 75,511
Debt Service 9,492
Pension Duties 9,375
Contingency Reserve 1,157
Total 95,535
Perspectives
Per Capita GDP: Upward trend
Per Capita GDP (US$ of 2011)
Average 3 years
Current
5,904
5,290
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 20062011
35
PPP Per Capita GDP Gap 1 (Peru=100)
Source: IMF-WEO Setember 2011
36
1/ Each country’s GDP per capita PPP divided by Peru’s GDP per capita PPP.
2001 2011 Var. %
Peru 5,116 10,001 95.5
Colombia 6,010 10,155 69.0
Chile 9,939 16,172 62.7
Brazil 7,358 11,846 61.0
Mexico 10,821 15,121 39.7
GDP per capita PPP
($ PPP)
212
194
144
117
151
162
118
102
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
Mexico Chile Brazil Colombia
2001
2011
Sharp reduction in Per Capita GDP gaps: Peru vs. Other Latam countries
2.5 3.0 3.5 3.75.3
10.3
29.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Peru Chile Colombia Mexico Brazil Argentina Venezuela
37
LATAM: GDP 2012 (Annual expected % change)
Source: MEF, Consensus Forecasts.
LATAM: Inflation 2012 (Anual expected % change)
5.4
4.5
4.0 3.9
3.5
3.1 3.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Peru Colombia Chile Venezuela Argentina Mexico Brazil
In 2012 Peru is expected to be the economy with the fastest growth and lowest inflation in the region
Continue to promote private investment as the engine of growth
38
Announcement of Private Investments Projects in the next 3 years (Billions of US$)
Source: BCRP.
Private Investment Projects 2011–2013 (Millions of US$)
27,793
6,960
2,847 3,191
7,513
Mining andHydrocarbons
Electricity Industry Infraestructure Other Sectors
40
47
48
Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
Ample growth and investment opportunities
39
Vehicle sales per capita 2010
(Vehicles per 1000 inhabitants)
Copper Production 2010 (Thousands of Fine Metric Tons)
1,247
5,520
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Peru Chile
Source: Sunat, UNWTO, Geological Service of USA, AEADE, ARAPER, ASBANC, FELABAN, CAVEM, ASOPARTES, CCL, Ripley FELABAN, SBS, Superinterdency of Banks and Financial Institutions (Chile).
Sale surface in department stores (Thousand of m2) (m2 per inhabitant)
197
847
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Peru Chile
7
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Peru Chile
1.0
2.1 2.1
2.8
4.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ecuador Peru Colombia Chile Argentina
Tourist arrivals 2010
(Millions of persons)
25
48
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Peru Brazil Chile
Banking System credits 2010
(% of GDP)
Exports 2010 (Billions US$)
Vehicle sales per capita 2010
(Vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants)
Sale surface in department stores (Thousand of sq.mts.) (Sq. mts per inhabitant)
Banking System Credit 2010
(% of GDP)
4.15.1
6.6
16.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Peru Colombia Ecuador Chile
3.2
8.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Peru Chile
0.4
4.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Peru Chile
Agro Wood & paper
In conclusion, Peru should continue in the path of growth and social inclusion
40
Per Capita GDP (US$)
Total Poverty Rate (% total population)
Source: MEF.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2005 2010 2015e 2020e
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 2005 2010 2015e 2020e
Peru: Economic and
Social Outlook
January, 2012
Luis Miguel Castilla
Minister of Economy and Finance