Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA | Birmingham June 2011Consultant ArupChairman Institute for SustainabilityCEO The Ecological Sequestration Trust

Helping communities to be more resilient and

successful in recovering from the recession

Total Community Retrofit

2

www.arup.com (ecological age)

• Can we move towards a sustainable way of living?

• What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries?

• How might might we enable communities to transition

in a resilient way to the Ecological Age?

‘Green Growth’

3

4 New York City/ Oxford/Ecology -Scaling laws for system growth

Human -industrial

Ecological

5 5

Source: Christopher Kennedy et al. 2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities. Environmental Science & Technology. 43(19), 7297-7302. (The data were mostly from 2005 although some cities had different years)

Oxford compares very badly with other global cities for overall GHG emissions

Oxford 2004

6

7

Our Shrinking Earth

19007.91

19505.15

19872.60

20052.02

20301.69

20501.44

Year

Hectaresof land per capita

8 8

United States of America

Bra

zil

Oxfordshire United Kingdom

EU

Sw

azil

and

Norway

World

France

Russia

There are only 12 countries in the world with higher ecological footprints than Oxfordshire

Source: Global Footprint Network and SEI

9

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 

Ecological Footprint

(gha/capita)

Carbon Footprint (tonnes

CO2/capita)

GHG Footprint (tonnes

CO2eq/capita)

South Oxfordshire 6.12 13.93 18.78

West Oxfordshire 5.86 13.36 18.02

Vale of White Horse 5.80 13.20 17.84

South East 5.63 12.76 17.28

Cherwell 5.62 12.75 17.26

UK 5.30 12.08 16.34

Oxford 5.04 11.40 15.44

Most of Oxfordshire’s districts have poor environmental footprints

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute

Best

Worst

10

HDI IncreaseHuman Development Index

1.44GHA/CapitaEcological Footprint

(CO2 – 50%) + += 2050 Ecological Age

11

THE McKINSEY COST CURVE V2.0 IDENTIFIES 19 GT OF ABATEMENTS BY 2020 MAKING IT TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO ACHIEVE 450PPM

BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE• 10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture)

• 5 Gt for Energy Effiency

• 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply

12

Middle to High Income Countries

• Transition from industrial to ecological age

• City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-ruralresource flows

• Model – London Climate Change Action Plan,

Frieburg, Stockholm, Malmo

Investment in UK estimated £220bn to £450bn by 2050

£10k to 20k per household

The Future is Local by SDC www.sd-commission.org.uk

13

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance withthe biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles of

Biomimicry

14

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance withthe biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles of

Biomimicry

15

Community Leaders-Making a Good Society

Now 45 people!

www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaders

www.futuresforcivilsociety.orgAnd role of Art and Culture www.culturefutures.org

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Theory - Cultural Planning

Culture Discipline and Sustainable City Development

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance withthe biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles of

Biomimicry

18 Resource Efficiency

Food Raw Materials

Energy Water

19

Energy Consumption

IMF, BP

20

Oxfordshire households (except in Oxford) used more electricity than the average for Great Britain and the South East region in 2007

Average annual domestic electricity sales per consumer

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

GreatBritain

South East Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire

Vale ofWhiteHorse

WestOxfordshire

Region

kW

h 2005

2006

2007

Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform

Oxfordshire residents are above-average domestic gas and electricity users

21

The average domestic gas consumption in 2007 was also above average in all Oxfordshire districts except Cherwell.

Average annual domestic gas sales per consumer

15,50016,00016,50017,00017,50018,00018,50019,00019,50020,00020,500

GreatBritain

South East Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire

Vale ofWhiteHorse

WestOxfordshire

Region

kW

h

2005

2006

2007

Oxfordshire residents are above-average domestic gas and electricity users

Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform

5%

Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercial /

industrial sector

• More efficient supply of heat/electricity

• Improvements to physical infrastructure

• Behavioural change (switching off lights etc)

• More energy efficient new builds

50%

Contribution to overall reduction

20%

25%

23 Balancing local and national energy supply networks

24 Supergrid Vision TREC

25

Transport & Urban Density

Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy (2006) “Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence”, Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies: Vol. 2: No. 1, Article 3.

Compact City: Low rise and high density – 3 to 8 storeys/1.45 average plot ration/75 dwelling per hectares 80,000 people

26

Press Office City of Munster, Germany

27

28

29

Consolidation centres

Direct Deliveries to Tenants/ Businesses

City Consolidation

Centres

Drop off Station if

Tenant is out

Tenants and Businesses

Delivery vehicles

Inefficient deliveries

Efficient deliveries

Access control •Low Emission Zone,•Congestion Charge, etc

Electric Trucks

Electric Bikes

30

Decreasing Food Supply

Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States

31

Sustainable Agriculture, Wanzhuang Eco-City

Business-as-Usual: Agricultural Food ProductionDislocation from the City

Rural-urban separation

Access to sustainable practices

Upskilling through trainingAccess to information networksAccess to modern agricultural equipment

New urban-rural linkages

Eco-City Configuration:Sustainable Rural-Urban Linkage

Farming in the City

33

Arup GI Approach

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance withthe biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles of

Biomimicry

Materials and WasteDrivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008)

‘Cradle to cradle’ TM

36 36

43% of household waste collected in Oxfordshire in 2008/09 was recycled

Percentage household waste recycled

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

England Countiesaverage**

Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire

Vale ofWhite Horse

WestOxfordshire

Region

Pe

rce

nta

ge

re

cy

cle

d

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

… recycling is increasing

Source: Oxfordshire County and District Councils

37 Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)

38

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance withthe biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles of

Biomimicry

39

BIMIRM

3D – 4D – 5DVirtual RealityCollaboration

…

ITSRFID

BroadbandWiMAXCCTVANPR

ParkingBMS

…

Control RoomsSpecifications

D&B contractsRIBA

…

Urban Information Architecture

Tools Form and Infrastructure Management

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41

Integrated multidisciplinary planning for delivering better performance outcomes in cities through retrofitting:

42

Integrated Resource Management

Master Plan

Ene

rgy

Tra

nspo

rt

Foo

d P

rodu

ctio

n

Eco

nom

ics

Oth

ers

Was

te M

anag

emen

t

Logi

stic

s

Was

tew

ater

Wat

er s

uppl

yLinking the overarching masterplan to the technical disciplines

Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements

43 The System of City Life

Land Use Schedule

Social

Water

Waste water Passenger Transport

Agricultural production (External

Area)

Biomass / Biofuel production

(External Area)

Consumption (Food,

goods, etc)

Freight movement(Logistics)

Waste management

Energy

Tonnes of goods moved

Tonnes of waste moved

Energy recovery from tonnes /composition

waste incineration(?)

Employment: Recycling(??)

Employment generated (external): Agricultural

production

Employment generated (external): Biomass

production

(a) Supply of housing

Passenger Transport distance

(based on density)

Freight transport

distance (based on density)

Additional Land Area for

Food production

(a) Employment demand

(b) Social infrastructure demandReduction in

potable demand through rainwater

harvest

POPULATION

Per capita energy

demand excl. transport / logistics

Potable water demand

Non-potable water demand

(treated wastewater)

Reduction in potable

water demand through

recycling

Production of sewage effluent

Energy demand by type

Travel demand

Demand for consumables (food, etc)

Additional Land Area for

Biomass production

Energy for freight movement

Fuel source – energy supply

Fuel source – energy supply (rice husk)

Reduction in energy demand

through embedded renewables

Generation of biogas

Waste output

Wind Turbines

Energy from Wind

Land area required for

turbines

44

GIS

IRM Link

IRM

Tech.PlanStrat

e-gies

Arup’s IRM Platform

45

Framework - Refined Plan

“Our vision is to significantly advance the UK’s capability to deliver solutions for a sustainable future, by

forging practical research collaborations and sharing the outcomes regionally, nationally and internationally”

47The Total Community Retrofit Model

48Total Community Retrofit: The Approach

Phase 1 – ModelDevelopment• Best practice review

• Stakeholder buy-in

• Early phase funding

• Priority workstreams

i. Financial/Business Model

ii. Community ownership and value

• Select priority locations

12 mths

Phase 2 – Createlocal client• Local steering group

• Initial local opportunity analysis

• Collaboration agreement

• Cultural audit

• Establish community structures

• P/P/C client created

6 mths

Phase 3 – Delivery Planning• Conduct detailed local

opportunity analysis

• Create delivery body

• Prioritise projects and delivery approaches

• Consolidate existing funding streams

• Secure delivery funding

18 mths

Phase 4 - Delivery• Launch specific retrofit,

infrastructure and community projects

• Develop local supply chains, develop skills, support job creation

• Assess progress through monitoring, measuring and evaluation

10-15 yrs

Lifecycle – validation, replication• Measure results against expectations, collect community feedback

• Develop knowledge transfer networks

• Develop “replication toolkits”

• Conduct dissemination outreach

49

•Create a donor pool from a region of £6m into TEST charity. • TEST will create and fund putting an integrated urban-rural resource model for the region into the University•TEST will fund phase 1,2 and 3 using local resources and expertise as UK/global demonstrator

The Ecological Sequestration Trust

‘But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time’

Thank you