petrofin r greek fleet statistics march 2019 based on data

PETROFIN RESEARCH © – Greek fleet statistics March 2019

based on data as of end December 2018

1

2018 – RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS: GREEK FLEET STATISTICS

2ND PART OF 2018 PETROFIN RESEARCH ©

CONTENTS OF PETROFIN RESEARCH © – PART 2

RESULTS AT A GLANCE (P. 2)

SECTION A: VITAL STATISTICS OF THE ENTIRE GREEK FLEET (P. 3)

SECTION B: FOCUSING ON THE LARGER VESSELS (P. 5)

SECTION C: ANALYSES BY TYPE OF VESSEL (P. 8)

TRENDS AND PROSPECTS (P. 17)

METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES – RESEARCH CRITERIA (P. 20)

PETROFIN RESEARCH © www.petrofin.gr



2

RESULTS AT A GLANCE

I. The overall number of Greek vessels has gone from 5281 to 5508.

II. Tonnage has again climbed up by 6.47% adding 25,053,780t DWT, to 412,310,405t DWT

from 387,210,742 DWT in 2017 and 361,934,047 in 2016. Last year the increase in tonnage

was 7%, as against 10.26% and 7.52% in 2016 and 2015 respectively.

III. An interesting development is the small rise in age for the average vessel, to 12.08 years of

age. Up to 2017, there was a continuous drop in average vessel age: 11.8 years in 2017,

12.19 in 2016, 12.73 in 2015, 13.26 in 2014, 14.05 in 2013 and 14.7 in 2012.

IV. In terms of fleet age and using a 20,000 DWT cut-off, the increase in average age is

occurring for the second year in a row. It now stands at 9.03 years, compared to 8.6 in 2017

and 8.4 years in 2016. This is despite the vigorous S&P activity but involving fewer

newbuilding deliveries. The focus has been the acquisition of quality, young second hand

tonnage. The impact of this, plus a slowdown of newbuilding ordering and deliveries, is

showing for the first time in the small increase of the average age of the whole of the Greek

fleet.

V. The Dry bulk fleet (vessels over 20,000 DWT) gained 192 vessels compared to the 129

vessels added in 2017 and 111 in 2016. The average bulker vessel age has gone up to 8.8

from 8.3 years in 2017. The Dry bulk tonnage is up and has added 15.7m DWT in 2018,

compared to an additional 12.7m DWT in 2017 and 7.2m DWT in 2016. This fleet is run by

315 companies compared to 313 in 2017.

VI. The large Container fleet (vessels over 20,000 DWT) shows 4 vessels more. We should note

that there are now 34 companies operating large containers, which is the highest number

since 2013. Although there are slightly more vessels, overall tonnage is down again this year

to 23m DWT for the large ones. This reduction is reflected in the average container vessel of

over 20,000 down to 62,775 DWT from 64,704.

VII. The enlargement of the large Tanker fleet (vessels over 20,000 DWT) continues both in

terms of vessel numbers and tonnage. Keeping in line, though, with the overall increase in

age, we note that the average tanker vessel now, although bigger, is 9.25 years of age

compared to 9.11 last year. Tonnage is now 159m DWT from 149.45 in 2017 and vessels

count 1,048, up from 1,004 in 2017. The average tanker vessel is 151,730 DWT compared to

148,850 in 2017.

VIII. Large LPGs have slowed down and even decreased in numbers, down to 65 from 76 in 2017.

Tonnage is down to 2.8m DWT from 3.7m in 2017 and the age is up by a year to 7.7.

IX. The LNG fleet shows a different picture, whereby the fleet is now 105 vessel strong from 82

in 2017. Tonnage is up from 7.11m DWT to 8.9m DWT and the companies that operate

them are also up from 8 in 2017 to 13 in 2018. In terms of age, the average LNG is now 5.3

years of age compared to 3.75 in 2017.

X. The expansion of the Greek fleet is continuing through vigorous second hand vessel

purchasing, with newbuildings still not a priority.



3

SECTION A: VITAL STATISTICS OF THE ENTIRE GREEK FLEET Freights remain low, vessel prices are relatively low and bank lending is restricted to the very few. The Greek fleet is, however, expanding, in terms of numbers, age and size. Confidence in shipping is still evident and strategic considerations are at work to render owners ready when the market recovers. The data obtained from our research is indicative of a very active market, a positive outlook for the future and continuous emphasis towards larger and younger vessels. The overall number of Greek vessels continues to increase.

TABLE 1

Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of

vessels in the Greek-based, Greek-owned

fleet

4110 4142 4085 4184 3970 4164 4346 4545 4763 4655 4714 4577 4573 4707 4909 5230 5281 5508

Change from

previous year

32 -57 99 -214 194 182 199 218 -108 59 -137 -4 134 202 321 51 227

PETROFIN RESEARCH © – as of end December 2018

The fleet’s DWT grew by 25m DWT and it now stands at a remarkable 412,310,405 compared to 387,256,616 in 2017 and 361,934,047 DWT in 2016. These vessels are managed by 588 companies, down from 597 in 2017, 638 in 2016 and 648 in 2015. (1st Part of Petrofin Research ©). In Table 2 we note the main developments.

TABLE 2

YEAR DWT AVERAGE AGE AVERAGE VESSEL DWT

2001 150,978,565 21.41 36,734 2002 166,931,748 20.58 40,302 2003 171,448,133 20.51 41,970 2004 184,288,917 20.12 44,046 2005 176,411,750 19.9 44,436 2006 194,486,455 19.14 46,707 2007 208,001,159 18.7 47,860 2008 222,368,331 18.4 48,926 2009 237,288,216 17.6 49,820 2010 242,802,092 16.4 52,160 2011 256,174,041 15.92 54,343 2012 263,635,420 14.7 57,600 2013 281,467,983 14.055 61,550 2014 303,579,176 13.252 64,495 2015 328,254,495 12.729 66,868 2016 361,934,047 12.186 69,203 2017 387,256,616 11.84 73,330 2018 412,310,405 12.08 74,857

PETROFIN RESEARCH © – as of end December 2018



4

GRAPH 1

The fleet is up in vessel numbers, DWT tonnage and average vessel size. However, it is now slightly older than 11.84 years in 2017, at 12.08 years in 2018.

Evolution of the Greek fleet since 2001, in terms ofFleet Age, Fleet DWT, Average vessel DWT, Number of vessels

as of end December 2018

61,550

PETROFIN RESEARCHwww.petrofin.gr

21.420.6

20.520.1

19.9

19.1

18.718.4

17.6

16.4

15.9

14.7

14.1

13.3

12.7

12.2

11.8

12.1

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

DWT mil No of Vessels Average vessel DWT Average vessel age

36,73440,302

44,046 44,436

46,707

47,86048,926

49,82052,160

41104142

40854184

3970

4164

43464545

47634655

47144577

54,343

57,600

264m

256m

242m237m

222m

208m

194m

176m184m

171m166m150m

281m

328m

303m

41,970 4573 4707

64,495

4909

66,868

5230

362m

69,203

5281

73,321

387m

5508

74,857

412m

Age of the fleet up for first time



5

SECTION B: FOCUSING ON THE LARGER VESSELS In order to concentrate on the real strength of Greek shipping, we use two cut-off DWT points, one of vessels over 10,000 DWT and the other of vessels over 20,000 DWT. This way, the Greek fleet is stripped of a large number of usually overage very small vessels of relatively little impact that operate mostly locally. Hence, we concentrate on the global aspect of the Greek fleet.

VESSELS OF OVER 10,000 DWT COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018 Graph 2 below shows the fluctuation in the number of companies that manage vessels over 10,000 DWT, the number of ALL these vessels over 10,000 DWT, their age and their DWT. (‘ALL vessels’ means everything of commercial purpose that floats and is under Greek control):

GRAPH 2

Vital Statistics of the GREEK FLEETVESSELS over 10,000 DWT – 2018

166,704,889180,349,372

173,276,726191,052,878

204,267,159218,335,923

233,124,730238,730,633

252,325,445260,092,319

278,181,000300,479,376

325,343,512359,081,205

384,748,003409,967,560

0 200,000,000 400,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of VESSELS over 10000 DWTTotal DWT of VESSELS over 10000 DWT

432429

420413

428439

449448

460449

440424

415414

400395

360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 440 450 460 470

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing VESSELS over 10000 DWT

2651 27542629

27942884 3019 3231314832713275

3347 353337594106

4327

4555

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of vessels over 10000DWT

19.9 19.7

19.6

16.0

15.314.8 14.2

12.9 12.1

11.110.2

9.5

9.08.6

8.9

9.3

789

1011121314151617181920

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

www.petrofin.gras of end December 2018



6

228 units more in 2018 compared to 221 units of over 10,000 DWT in 2017, representing an increase of 25.2m DWT.

The rise in tonnage continues its unimpeded climb since 2005.

The average vessel DWT is now 90,004, compared to 88,917 DWT, 87,453 in 2016, 86,551 in 2015, 85,049 DWT in 2014, 83,113 DWT in 2013, 79,417 DWT in 2012, 77,140 in 2011, 75,836 in 2010.

But this year, like last year, bigger does not mean younger. The vigorous exchange of second hand vessel tonnage continues to be the main feature of the market, where owners are positioning themselves strategically, cautious of the very recent and still impacting newbuilding surplus crisis. There has also been a slowdown in newbuilding orders and this has begun to affect the fleet age. The rate of growth of the global fleet has fallen to 2.54% in 2018, from 3.36% in 2017 and 3.13% in 2016.



7

VESSELS OF OVER 20,000 DWT

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018

Graph 3 below shows the fluctuation in the number of companies that manage vessels over 20,000 DWT, the number of ALL these vessels, their age and their DWT. (‘ALL vessels’ means everything that floats for commercial activities and is under Greek control):

GRAPH 3

Similar results for the over 20,000 DWT. 223 vessels have been added.

The number of companies are down by 4.

The average DWT of each vessel is 94,113 compared to 93,100 in 2017, 91,640 in 2016, 91,364 in 2015, 89,881 inn 2014.

Again, the age is up due to much second hand tonnage exchanging hands and a slowdown in the growth of the global fleet.

Vital Statistics of the GREEK FLEETVESSELS over 20,000 DWT - 2018

160,903,934175,296,296

168,910,595186,529,075

199,785,925213,539,476

227,794,099233,926,985

248,180,760256,829,913

274,928,459297,236,837

321,967,846355,930,032

381,433,955406,566,483

0 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of VESSELS over 20000 DWTTotal DWT of VESSELS over 20000 DWT

389392

382377

387395

403402

426412

408398

389389

380376

350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing VESSELS over 20000 DWT

22762412

23382487

25762687

28712823

2982 30153122

3307 35243884

40974320

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

2003200420052006 20072008200920102011201220132014 2015201620172018

Number of VESSELS over 20000 DWT


19.3 19.019.0

15.214.5

14.213.6

12.411.6

10.79.8 9.1

8.7

8.4 8.6

9.0

789

1011121314151617181920

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

www.petrofin.gr



8

SECTION C: ANALYSES BY TYPE OF VESSEL

THE GREEK BULKER FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 10,000 DWT EACH

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018

Dry has again been at the centre of trust of Greek owners. In DWT terms, 46% of the Greek fleet consists of

bulkers over 10,000 DWT. 194 vessels were added in 2018, compared to 136 in 2017. 15.7m DWT were added

in 2018. For the second year running, age is up to 8.9 years, compared to 8.38 in 2017 and 8.16 in 2016. The

average bulker size is not much different to last year’s: 80,270 compared to 80,206 DWT in 2017.

GRAPH 4

The Greek Bulker FleetBULKER VESSELS over 10,000 DWT – 2018

77.299.19481,993,253

82,300,33186,610,648

93,274,61498,574,031

108,874,141108,006,901

119,962,805125,382,828129,904,342

136,217,119155,686,884

162,744,342175,571,470

191,283,131

0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of BULKER VESSELS over 10000 DWTTotal DWT of BULKER VESSELS over 10000 DWT

328326326

316318

323330

326347

337330

323318

316316

318

290 300 310 320 330 340 350

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing BULKER VESSELS over 10000 DWT

1396 1441 1417 143714821515

16341557

1732172717361788

19512053

21892383

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of BULKER vessels over 10000 DWT


19.6

19.4

19.4

17.216.3

16.215.6

14.4

13.311.8

10.3

9.28.6

8.2 8.48.9

789

1011121314151617181920

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

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9

THE GREEK BULKER FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 20,000 DWT EACH COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018

Similar trends with the bigger bulker vessels. The bulker fleet over 20,000 DWT is up by 192 vessels, which shows that practically all of the new tonnage added belongs to the bigger bulker sector. Average vessel size is up to 80,873 from 80,795 in 2017, 79,663 DWT in 2016 and 80,507 DWT in 2015. Age is up to 8.8 years.

GRAPH 5

75,968,30980,796,201

81,247,17485,640,798

92,409,25097,818,807

107,949,447107,184,780

119,213,341124,813,467129,412,948

135,834,528155,297,388

162,512,144175,244,646

190,941,882

0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of BULKER VESSELS over 20000 DWTTotal DWT of BULKER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

314308310

305307314321

315339

330325

319313313313

315

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing BULKER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

13181369 1351137614281469

15781508

168716931707 1766

19292040

2169

2361

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of BULKER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

The Greek Bulker FleetBULKER VESSELS over 20,000 DWT - 2018

19.2

19.1 19.0

17.0

16.0 16.015.5 14.3

13.1

11.710.2

9.2

8.68.1

8.3

8.8

789

1011121314151617181920

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

as of end December 2018PETROFIN RESEARCH

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10

THE GREEK CONTAINER FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 10,000 DWT EACH COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018

Greek container vessels show an increase in units but a small decrease in tonnage. The container sector remains a highly volatile market. Companies that operate container vessels are up fairly significantly from 32 to 37, possibly showing an acquisition activity by companies that are specialised in other sectors. Again the age is up by almost a year.

GRAPH 6

The Greek Container FleetCONTAINER VESSELS over 10,000 DWT - 2018

5.308.4125,874,811

6,027,2597,539,3847,596,420

9,151,48210,448,890

10,689,318

10,873,81512,667,748

13,633,54415,097,956

17,992,21625,795,943

24,087,18323,813,174

0 4,000,000 8,000,000 12,000,000 16,000,000 20,000,000 24,000,000 28,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of CONTAINER VESSELS over 10000 DWTTotal DWT of CONTAINER VESSELS over 10000 DWT

3430

1925

22222324

2325

2428

3234

3237

0 10 20 30 40

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing CONTAINER VESSELS over 10000 DWT

158 165 148188 182

220 239 207 204243 254 269

297

414 406420

0

100

200

300

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of CONTAINER VESSELS over 10000 DWT


17.4 17.417.80

17.00

18.00 18.00 18.00

14.13

12.37 12.55

12.24

10.15

9.71

9.76

10.57

11.50

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

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11

THE GREEK CONTAINER FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 20,000 DWT EACH COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018

The large container sector hasn’t added significantly more units and its total tonnage is also slightly down.

GRAPH 7

The Greek Container FleetCONTAINER VESSELS over 20,000 DWT - 2018

4,575,5645,225,0455,540,339

6,953,8817,099,585

8,554,2699,828,84310,359,67610,642,047

12,381,83713,346,981

14,725,64017,655,259

25,327,98623,487,496

23,038,269

0 7,000,000 14,000,000 21,000,000 28,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of CONTAINER VESSELS over 20000 DWTTotal DWT of CONTAINER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

2524

141616

181920

2223

2227

3132

3034

0 10 20 30 40

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing CONTAINER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

124 123150 149

180198 185 189

224 235 244274

381363 367

111

0

150

300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of CONTAINER vessels over 20000 DWT


17.516.8

18.0

15.716.5

17.5

17.2

13.6

12.1 12.1 12.1

9.9

9.4 9.3

10.1

10.8

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

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12

THE GREEK TANKER FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 10,000 DWT EACH

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018 The percentage of tankers over 10,000 DWT, in DWT terms, in the Greek fleet remains the same at 39% as in 2017 (compared to 36.39% in 2016 and 35.7% in 2015). 39 more units were added. The number of companies running tankers is down to 93, although last year there was a major leap from 86 to 94. Tonnage is up by 9.5m compared to the increase of 18m DWT in 2017, 14.54m DWT in 2016 and 199,687 DWT in 2015. Age is slightly up to 9.3 years.

GRAPH 8

The Greek Tanker FleetTANKER VESSELS over 10,000 DWT - 2018

18.017.1

15.7

12.0

11.3

10.610.1

9.4

9.1

8.99.0

9.79.5 9.3 9.1

9.3

8

13

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

71.329.05980,027,341

71,200,06880,983,879

86,446,94590,493,05891,219,320

97,003,01897,085,78598,044,149

111,069,261116,943,048117,142,735

131,691,587149,612,315

159,104,992

0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of TANKER VESSELS over 10000 DWTTotal DWT of TANKER VESSELS over 10000 DWT

9496

899494

9399

9195

929292

9086

9493

76 82 88 94 100

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing TANKER VESSELS over 10000 DWT

677758

689 732 745 739 760 782 751 754823 816 817 857

10151054

0

500

1000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of TANKER vessels over 10000DWT

as of end December 2018PETROFIN RESEARCH

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13

THE GREEK TANKER FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 20,000 DWT EACH

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2018 As only 6 tankers is the difference between the 10,000 and 20,000 sector, all the above observations are pertinent here.

GRAPH 9

The Greek Tanker FleetTANKER VESSELS over 20,000 DWT - 2018

71,042,29679,762,965

71,006,09080,760,538

86,252,20990,359,62090,986,727

96,860,17896,899,77797,856,568

110,951,803116,802,098117,022,849

131,618,280149,445,417

159,013,356

0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Average Age of TANKER VESSELS over 20000 DWTTotal DWT of TANKER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

9091

849191

9092

8893

908989

8885

9291

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of Shipping Companies managing TANKER VESSELS over 20000 DWT

657740

676 718 733 730 744 771 737 740814 805 808 851

10041048

0

175

350

525

700

875

1050

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Number of TANKER vessels over 20000DWT


18.7

16.5

15.1

11.611.0

10.49.9

9.39.0 8.7

9.09.7 9.5 9.4

9.1

9.2

7

10

13

16

19

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

www.petrofin.gr



14

THE GREEK LNG FLEET

The LNG market is growing fast. The rise in age combined with the rise in tonnage and number of vessels

shows the commitment to this sector. Also, 5 more companies are now operating LNGs compared to the last 3

companies. BP forecast on 18/2/2019 that LNG demand shall double by 2040. Numerous fresh newbuilding

orders are being announced, e.g. TEN, Angelikoussis, Gaslog, etc.

GRAPH 10

The Greek LNG Fleet - 2018

2,611,804

4,304,336

6,351,177

7,144,700

7,119,019

8,942,051

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Average Age of LNG vesselsTotal DWT of LNG vessels

6

6

8

8

8

13

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Number of Shipping Companies managing LNG vessels

32

50

74 7482

105

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of LNG vessels


4.25

3.503.16

3.60 3.75

5.35

0

3

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

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15

THE GREEK LPG FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 10,000 DWT EACH

LPGs show a reduction, after a 4-year increase. Tonnage has dropped and the fleet is older by a year.

The above reflect difficult market conditions.

GRAPH 11

The Greek LPG Fleet – LPGs over 10,000 DWT - 2018

1,153,993

1,150,826

1,480,798

3,290,768

4,143,522

3,250,274

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Average Age of LPG vessels of over 10,000 DWTTotal DWT of LPG vessels of over 10,000 DWT

6

7

9

13

13

15

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Number of Shipping Companies managing LPG vessels of over 10,000 DWT

29 31

48

89

10493

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of LPG vessels of over 10,000 DWT


11.31 11.32 11.50

5.19

7.26

8.32

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

www.petrofin.gr



16

THE GREEK LPG FLEET OF VESSELS OVER 20,000 DWT EACH

Similar results for the bigger LPGs.

GRAPH 12

The Greek LPG Fleet – LPGs over 20,000 DWT - 2018

1,077,776

1,049,732

1,178,545

2,949,702

3,721,481

2,828,233

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Average Age of LPG vessels of over 20,000 DWTTotal DWT of LPG vessels of over 20,000 DWT

6

7

9

13

13

15

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Number of Shipping Companies managing LPG vessels of over 20,000 DWT

23 23 26

6676

65

0102030405060708090

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of LPG vessels of over 20,000 DWT


11.00 11.20

13.69

4.33

6.717.71

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PETROFIN RESEARCH

www.petrofin.gr



17

TRENDS AND PROSPECTS Last year experienced growth in the Greek fleet both in the number of vessels by 4.3%, as well as in dwt terms by 6.47% Although another robust performance, dwt growth is showing signs of a moderate slowdown from 7% the year before and 10.26% two years ago. Global dwt last year grew by 2.5%, from 1,924.7m DWT to 1,973.5m DWT, which underlines the continuous growth of the Greek fleet. Based on the Greek fleet age, using a 20,000 DWT cutoff, there was an increase of the Greek fleet’s age, for the second year at 9 years, compared to 8.6 and 8.4 in previous years. Possible explanations lie in the relatively slowdown of newbuilding deliveries 129 last year and 156 the year before and the continuous decline of the Greek newbuilding order book from 502 vessels two years ago to 326 vessels in 2017 and 248 vessels last year (Source: Clarkson’s World Fleet Register). We view, however, the above to be short term trends, reflecting an adjustment by Greek shipping to current market opportunities and market outlook. There is continuous evidence of investments in the LNG sector, as well as increased interest in tankers, where a perceived future market recovery is largely expected. Graph 1 is very useful in seeing the evolution of Greek shipping over the last 18 years. In dry bulk, the number of shipping companies has remained essentially unchanged over the last 4 years, although dry bulk dwt grew by 9% last year, using the 20,000 dwt fleet size cutoff. Average vessel size remained flat last year with average vessel age rising from 8.3 to 8.8 years. The container sector showed a rise in this sector’s participants from 30 to 34 but a modest decline in the fleet size and a rise of the fleet age from 10.1 to 10.8 years. The tanker fleet demonstrated an essentially unchanged number of owners but a rise of the fleet by 5.7% and a modest rise in the fleet’s age from 9.1 to 9.2 years. The LNG sector is showing the most dynamic change with a large rise of participants from 8 to 13, a large rise of dwt by 25.61% and a large rise of vessels from 82 to 105. The rise of the fleet’s age from 3.75 to 5.35 is not significant, as in itself the LNG sector represents the youngest fleet sector in Greek shipping and reflects increased S%P activity. The LPG sector is experiencing the effects of a non-supportive market with decline in dwt terms of fleet size by 30%, a rise in the number of participants and a rising age from 6.71 to 7.71 years.



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CONCLUSIONS It appears that the Greek fleet, although maintaining an overall robust growth, took a small breather last year. It can be argued that the frenetic activity both in newbuildings and S&P transactions could not continue at the same pace. However, we can detect some key points that shaped last year. The dry bulk market experienced a good year, in terms of both vessel values and incomes. However, as the year came to a close, clouds formed over the longevity of the improving market, primarily related to the announced and imposed ‘Trump’s tariffs’, as well as a slow-down on the world economic growth. Therefore, dry bulk owners’ pace of ordering and S&P acquisitions declined. The tanker market fated badly last year and so did the LPG market. There was some position building by tanker players, wishing to exploit low vessel values. However, the extreme volatility of oil prices thwarted many owners from expanding, even though their appetite witnessed a change in the last month of last year, especially for product carriers. The LNG sector represents a longer term market opportunity for Greek owners, to develop a big presence in this overall promising sector, in which only big players can effectively participate. Two factors played a role as well in the individual decisions by owners. The first was the rising US interest rates and prospects for further rises, which have a pronounced effect on vessel breakevens. The second involves the continuous decline of bank finance, especially in the West, where the consolidation process that commenced 10 years ago, continues unabated. Banks, such as RBS, have virtually disappeared and Commertzbank, HSH, Nord LB, Unicredit and others are but shadows of their former selves. Some of the shock has been taken up by Chinese banks with Far Eastern banks accounting for an increasing market share (see Petrofin Bank Research ©). With the public markets underperforming, (in terms of contribution of fresh capital $7.5 bn, representing about 1% of the value of the global fleet), access to bank finance and the public markets has been very tight and, in any case, restricted to the bigger private and public company entities. This has dampened owners’ investment interest. As recently reported in Tradewinds (09/02/2019), the total number of sale and purchase transactions and new building resales of bulkers, tankers, container ships, gas carriers and passenger ships fell by 4.6% in 2018 to 290 vessels from 304 vessels in 2017. However, the total value of the above rose from $4.6bn in 2017 to $5.5bn in 2018. Admittedly, leasing and private funds have become the real alternatives to bank finance as appetite to lend or invest in shipping has continued and indeed has risen. However, such forms of alternative finance come at a higher cost, which the current shipping markets cannot absorb. Leasing cost has remained higher than bank finance but not prohibitively so. The effective cost of Funds is between 12 – 15% per annum, which is not compatible with the general returns of shipping other than for short-term periods. It is believed that as the cost of finance has risen and access to public markets was limited, these factors plus the uncertain future of world trade growth turned a number of owners into adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude.



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The implications of the 2020 fuel restrictions, as well as the costs of implementing ballast water management improvements for all the fleet have resulted in higher costs for owners, as well as in the case of 2020, a heated debate into the merits of scrubbers. Early declines in the dry bulk sector in 2019 appear to have justified Greek owners’ cautiousness. By their nature, though, Greek owners are keen to spot opportunities and remain totally committed to shipping as their sector of choice. With commitment and opportunity comes growth and we anticipate that any slowdown may well be relatively short lived, provided there is no massive shift in global trade and prohibitive sanctions that frustrate this evolutionary phase. The recent moves towards dry bulk mergers should also be seen as part of Greek listed companies who wish to become more attractive in the equity and bonds market and thus be in a better position to grow their fleets inexpensively and safely. The consolidation trend leading to the creation of ‘jumbo’ dry bulk concerns with fleets of over 100 vessels is thus continuing and is expected to gather pace in the years to come.



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METHODOLOGY – SOURCES - RESEARCH CRITERIA

In this 2nd

part of Petrofin research, the Greek Fleet Statistics, we analyse the composition of the Greek fleet, in terms of vessel size, vessel type and vessel age. Our sources are the Greek Shipping Directory (2018), printed and on-line database, Newsfront Greek Shipping Intelligence, as well as Clarkson’s World Fleet Register, Clarkson’s Shipping Intelligence Weekly and numerous market sources. Research Criteria:

a. All Greek-owned / Greek-based vessels, of whichever flag are taken into account. b. The Greek-based / Greek-owned fleet is analysed and presented initially as a whole,

in terms of Numbers of Vessels, Age of Vessels and DWT. c. Then a cut-off DWT is used of 10,000DWT to measure the number of companies

that run vessels above this tonnage. This is done for the whole fleet, then for Bulkers, Tankers, LNGs and LPGs. This cut-off eliminates the vast number of very small and usually over-aged vessels that unduly influence the Greek fleet analysis.

d. A further cut-off DWT point of 20,000DWT is used for the whole fleet, the Bulkers, the Tankers and the Containers. This shows the effect that a higher cut-off has on the fleet and its main sectors.

e. Newbuildings are only taken into account if they have a scheduled delivery year of up to and inclusive of 2019. This results in a more accurate assessment of today’s fleet closer to reality. In the current economic climate, a very substantial number of newbuilding orders may be susceptible to cancellations, postponements and re-sales, and may thus distort the current picture of the size of Greek companies, the age of their fleets and of vessels actually trading or about to be delivered to Greek-based / Greek-owned companies.

f. Under the “Tanker” term we have included only crude oil Tankers, ULCCs and VLCCs and not other types of tankers. Bulk carriers include bulkers only and not general cargo vessels. Container vessels are pure cellular vessels. Consequently, this 2

nd

part of our research does not produce data for other types, such as chemical tankers, product carriers, OBOs, Container/bulkers, etc.

petrofin r greek fleet statistics march 2019 based on data

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