petrushevski martin - south stream pipeline in macedonia

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South Stream Pipeline Effects and Benefits for Macedonia Martin Petrushevski MESPOM 2012-2014

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  • 1. Martin Petrushevski

2. Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png Sources: Nichol et al. 2006, Eurostat 2010, Gazprom 2013, 3. Wintershall ENI 15%20% GazpromEDF 50%15%Image Source: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/85/290063/cdm40995_edit.jpgSource: Gazprom 2012 Total cost 15.5bil EUR 4. 2,500kmlongImage Source: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/44/270918/southern-corridor-2-en.jpg 5. 383$per 1,000m 2011 305$per 1,000m 2010 Due to competition with Norways Statoil Minimumprice with zero margin 160$ per 1,000m - room to reduce priceSource: Gazprom 2011 6. Coal 70% of energy production Expensive electricity Naturalgas is abundant Naturalgas power plants are a cost-competitive alternative Natural gas in power generation offerssignificant emission reductions Important role in decarbonizing energy mix Advantages beyond power generation Supports European Economic developmentand competitivenessSource: European Gas Advocacy forum 7. gasimported hydro2.4% geothermal electricity 5.1% 0.4%5.6%biomass 6%coal47% oil35%Home Production: 51,53%Imported: 48,47%Source: MANU 2008Year 8. Importedfrom Russia from Corridor 8(Ukraine, Moldova, Romania,Bulgaria) Total imported and distributed gas for 2011approx. 136mil/m 16,9% of capacityKriva PalankaKratovoKumanovoSkopjeDark age Source: Annual report on the work of the regulatory commission for energy sector in Macedonia in 2011 9. Source: MGA 2008 10. Toplifikacija47mil/m Makstil AD 27mil/m TE-TO 21mil/m ELEM 9mil/m Doesnt cover Mital Stil 8mil/mhouseholds Pivara 3mil/m Zito Luks 3mil/m1company transport, trade & distribution GA-MA AD Skopje 11. Quantity x10 m14000012000010000080000600004000020000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Data Source: Indexmundi 12. Primary energy sources in Macedonia by 2020 renewables12%gas16% oil and coal72%Source: Energy Strategy 2009 13. Total pipeline length 790,663mTotal Investments311,595,854 EURSource: Jovanovski 2008 14. Source: Energy Strategy 2009 15. Micro-economic Macro-economic Sustainableaspect Environmental aspect 16. Opportunityto choose energy as input for theconsumers Increase of the competitiveness * Faster dynamic of development of thetechnological developmental zones andincreased employment* the World Economic Forum ranked the economies according to theircompetitiveness. It has introduced a specific column for theinfrastructure as an efficient driver of the competitivenessSource: WBIF 2011 17. Potentialreduction of the current accountdeficit due to the reduced import ofelectricity Improve living conditions of citizensSource: MINA 2012 18. Constant supply with possible low prices 19. Reductionin pollution- Due to 80% of electricity generated fromfossil fuels Noproblems with storage and negative impact on the environment 20. Increaseduse of natural gas throughoutthe country, accompanied byeconomic, social, and environmentalbenefits Further development of the power sector Strengthening energy security 21. Source: Indexmundi Image Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?t=0&v=137&r=eu&l=en 22. 1.5% annual growthin worldFactors: Slow economicgrowthRenewable energyEnergy policies 23. BenefitsCons Energy stability Increase energy Producing cheap dependence onelectricity Russia Used for heatingReduce share of Increasingcompetition and renewable ininnovation in the energy sectorindustry sector Decrease GHGemissions 24. 25th June 2012Macedonia Gazprom 25. Analytica, 2008. Natural gas an energy necessity for Macedonia. URL:http://analyticamk.org/files/ReportNo15.pdf BP 2012. Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012. Internet Source. Date accessed: 28.03.2012. URL:http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481 Energy Sector in Macedonia, 2011. Annual report on the work of the regulatory commission for energy sector inMacedonia in 2011. Skopje: Government Publishing European Gas Advocacy Forum, 2011. The Future Role of Natural Gas. A position paper by the European GasAdvocacy Forum. URL: http://www.gazpromexport.ru/content/file/egaf/Making_the_green_journey_work_-_web_version.pdf Gas Infrastructure Europe, 2011. System Development Map. URL:http://www.gie.eu.com/download/maps/ENTSOG_SYSDEV_MAP2011.pdf Gazprom 2011. Annual Report. Internet source. Date accessed: 28.03.2013. URL:http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/60/660385/annual-report-2011-eng.pdf Image Consumption Projections MK; Final Consumption; Future Projections Total Gas Demand; Gas Demand2040; Gas Consumption in EU. Jovanovski and Kontradenko 2008 Image Future Projections EU. IEA, 2009. Image Macedonia and Gazprom. URL: http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/macedonia-south-stream-pipeline Image Investments. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/85/290063/cdm40995_edit.jpg IMF, 2011. Electricity Demand and Supply Image. URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1130.pdf Indexmundi. Historical Data Graphs per Year. URL: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=mk&v=137 International Gas Union, 2008. Macedonia Natural Gas Situation Oct 2008. URL:http://www.igu.org/knowledge/members-information-about-natural-gas-markets/macedonia-natural-gas-situation-oct-2008.pdf/at_download/file Jovanovski. Lj. and Kontradenko, Z. 2008. Gas Infrastructure in Republic of Macedonia. A presentation preparedfor the 5th Gas Forum. Brdo Kranj Slovenia. Macedoniaonline. Macedonia Officially joins South Stream Gas pipeline. Internet article. Date Accessed:24.03.2013. URL: http://macedoniaonline.eu/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=21361 Map Present Gas supply in Macedonia. URL: http://www.realfuture.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/balkan_area_southeast_europe_pipelines_map.jpg Macedonian Academy for Sciences and Art (MANU) 2009. Strategy for Energy Sector Development for the period2008-2020, with a vision for 2030. Skopje: Governmental Publishing. Map South East Pipeline Route. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/44/270918/southern-corridor-2-en.jpg