PEVs and the Consumer

Mobile Sources Technical Review Subcommittee

Bob Wimmer

Toyota Motor North America

December 13, 2012

Dec 2012

Toyota Electrification History

2

’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10 ’12 ‘13

Toyota RAV4-EV Prius

Prius V

Prius C

Prius PHEV

Camry HV

Highlander HV

Avalon HV

Lexus RX h

GS h

LS h

HS

CT

ES h New

New

15 years of electrified vehicle design, manufacturing and marketing experience

~1000 Leased ~500 Sold

Dec 2012

Market Growth Takes Time

3

0

1

2

3

4

5Sa

les

in M

illio

ns

Cumulative Toyota/Lexus Hybrid Sales

Global Sales

>4,200,000

US Sales

>1,800,000

Over 15% of Toyota’s year to date sales are hybrids

Dec 2012

Today's PEV Market

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Cu

mu

lati

ve S

ale

s

First 18-Months on the Market

Early HV Sales vs Early PHV-EV Sales (US Market)

PHV-EV

HV

Initial PEV sales out paced hybrids, but …..

4

Dec 2012

Significant Market Differences

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Cu

mu

lati

ve S

ale

s

First 18-Months on the Market

Early HV Sales vs Early PHV-EV Sales (US Market)

PHV-EV

HV

The major differences from a decade ago Average Weekly Real Gasoline Price During each 18-Month Period 2000 $1.52 Now $3.58

Average Federal Incentive During each 18-Month Period 2000 $0 Now $6,918

5

Dec 2012

6

PEV Market Size in 2012

Over 35,000 PEVs sold so far in 2012

There are 4 PHEVs sold

55 HEVs sold

For every one EV sold

1550 conventional vehicles sold

~ the same as Porsche

Dec 2012

7

PHEV Buyer Demographics

Vehicle Median Age

College Median Income

Male

Prius Mid-50s Grad School

<$100k ~ ½

Prius PHEV Early 50s ½ Grad School

>$150k > ¾

Lexus 60 Most <$150k ~ ½

RAV4 Late 50s ½ <$75k ~ 1/3

RAV4-EV Similar Highly Educated

Affluent ~ ¾

Prius PHEV “Image” - Environmentally friendly - Innovative - Technologically advanced

Similar % to

Prius v & c

Limited Cross Shopping - 35% with Volt - 25% with Leaf - 5% with Prius

Reasons for Buying Prius PHEV - EV & high MPG as HV - Gov incentive (rebate, carpool sticker, etc.)

- Fuel economy

Dec 2012

8

HV

Growing the PEV Market

Conventional Vehicles

PHEV

EV

HV

Dec 2012

Ear

ly A

dopt

ers

Early

Majo

rity

Late

Majo

rity

Inno

vato

rs

Reje

cte

rs

Chasm

2.5% 34% 34% 16%13.5%

Technology Adoption Theory

Technology Adoption Accelerating

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Electrified Vehicle Sales & Models

HV

% o

f N

ew

Sal

es

Nu

mb

er o

f HV

Mo

de

ls

Thru Oct 2012

Best year yet for electrified vehicle sales

Not yet mainstream – must jump chasm

9

Dec 2012

MPGe (Combined) 28 33 44 Fuel Cost per year $1100 $1550 $1150

Your Mileage May Vary

10

Consumers are overwhelmed

with data

How to choose???

200-

150-

100-

50-

0-

67

133

MPGe (Combined) 95 50 Fuel Cost per year $900 $1000

DC Area Electricity

Dec 2012

11

PEV Market Growth will Require

Time Significant expansion of hybrids Greater appeal to a broader demographic

Dec 2012

12

Thank You For Your Attention