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I N T E R N AT I O N A L M O N E TA RY F U N D P U B L I C AT I O N S

Inequality and Growth

GenderBanking, Finance and Taxation

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Energy and Natural Resources

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Application must include relevant supporting documents (previous academic transcripts, evidence of English language requirements, GRE score sheets), a 100-word research proposal as part of your CV and two academic referee reports.

Refer to https://study.unimelb.edu.au/find/courses/graduate/doctoral-program-in-economics/entry-requirements/ for minimum requirements.

Applications close on 30 September each year and entry to the program is for February (Semester 1) only.

Scholarships

› All successful applicants are awarded an annual AUD $30,000 stipend and waived tuition fees for 5 years.

› Top-up funding of AUD $10,000 available for research, experiments and conferences during the research phase of the program.

The University of Melbourne 198 Berkeley Street, Carlton Victoria 3010, Australia

buseco-gradmissions@unimelb.edu.au mbs.unimelb.edu.au/gradres

CRICOS Provider code: 00116KCopyright The University of Melbourne 2018. Copyright in this publication is owned by the University and no part of it may be reproduced without the permission of the University.

Disclaimer: The information in this publication was correct at the time of printing. The University of Melbourne reserves the right to make changes as appropriate.

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MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL

The University of Melbourne’s Department of Economics and the Melbourne Institute together uphold their position as the premier economics research unit in Australia. Our academics are routinely called upon to provide expert opinions to business and government in Australia and around the world. Here, under the supervision of world-class researchers, our PhD students produce the highest calibre of research, in preparation for their placements in top institutions and organisations around the world.

Melbourne at a glance

Population: 4.4 million people

World’s Most Liveable City 2011–2017

More cafes and restaurants per number of people than any other city in the world

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for Economic and Econometric subjects

QS World University Rankings by Subject 2019

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#24in the world

DOCTORAL PROGRAM IN ECONOMICS

This five-year doctoral program in economics is the leading PhD program in the region and sits among the world’s top graduate research programs. This program is jointly offered by the Department of Economics and Australia’s pre-eminent economic and social policy research institution, the Melbourne Institute. Our students have access to state-of-the-art experimental labs, funding support for national and international conference travel and access to all major research databases. This program is designed for students with prior training in economics or a related discipline with a strong analytical/mathematical component, who wish to acquire the advanced skills needed to practice as a professional economist in the public or private sectors. Some of our more recent placements are at the University of Pittsburgh (US), Nuffield College, at the University of Oxford (UK) and Monash University (Australia).

Admissions

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Email: fec@sufe.edu.cn Tel.:86-21-6590 2330

Frontiers of Economics in China (FEC) is a double-blind peer-reviewed economics journal edited at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) and published by Higher Education Press of China. With 630 institutional subscribers worldwide and indexed in 10+ databases including EBSCO-BSU, EconLit, ESCI, ProQuest, RePEc and SCOPUS, the journal was ranked as one of “The Highest International Impact Academic Journals of China” in 2016.

The FEC welcomes submissions of theoretical and empirical papers from all fields of economics, particularly those with an emphasis on the Chinese economy and other emerging, developing or transition economies.

Editor: Guoqiang Tian Texas A&M University; SUFE Executive Editor: Zhiqi Chen Carleton University Co-Editors: Chunrong Ai University of Florida Kevin X. D. Huang Vanderbilt University Neng Wang Columbia University Quan Wen University of Washington

Selected Papers Published in 2018 and 2019（Click paper title to see details）

China’s Investments in Skills……………………………………………James J. Heckman, Shuaizhang Feng An Agenda for Reforming Economic Theory…………………………………………………. Joseph E. Stiglitz

China’s Growth Deceleration: Causes and Future Growth Prospect…………………...Justin Yifu Lin

Research on the Education of Migrant Children in China: A Review of the Literature……………… Yuanyuan Chen, Shuaizhang Feng, Yujie Han

Tackle China’s Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening-up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation — A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)…………………………………………………………..

Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Yuqin Wang

Urbanization in China, ca. 1100–1900…………….Yi Xu, Bas van Leeuwen, Jan Luiten van Zanden

Full-Text Available: ProQuest, EBSCO-BSU, Gale Website: https://econpapers.repec.org/article/fecjournl

Online Submission: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/fec

Admission&Funding

We evaluate applications on a rolling basis but earlyapplicationisadvised.Weusuallymakeourfirstdecisionsonfundingaroundmid-February.

The Department offers studentships which cover thetuition fee and provide an annual maintenance stipendcurrently starting at approx. £17,770 per year, plus aresearch budget of £1000. Several TAs (teachingassistantships)arealsoavailable.

Applicationmustincluderelevantsupportingdocuments:CV,previousdegreetranscriptsandcertificates,evidenceofEnglishlanguagerequirements(e.g.,IELTS),GREscores,aresearchproposalandtwoacademicreferences.

For further informationaboutadmissions,pleasecontactthePostgraduateAdmissionsManager:

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orvisitourwebsiteat:

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PhD Economics Programme

DepartmentofEconomicsSchoolofSocialSciences

AboutUs

EconomicsattheUniversityofManchesterhasalongandrich history, dating back to the 19th century, when thefirst chair in political economy was established in 1854.Important scholars who have held positions atManchesterincludeWilliamS.Jevons,HarryJohnsonandNobel Laureates John R. Hicks and Arthur Lewis. TheDepartment at present has over 50 full time academicmembers,activeacrossallareasofeconomics.

IntheREF2014(Economics&Econometrics)ManchesterEconomics was ranked 7th out of 28 EconomicsDepartmentsintermsofresearchpower.

Our PhD in Economics is a newly re-designed graduateprogrammewitha2+3structure,designedtoofferworldclasstraininginmoderneconomics.Year1(MSc)andYear2 (PhD level courses) are devoted to acquire thenecessary skills for independent research, which will becarried out in Years 3 to 5. Direct admission into thesecond year is possible with a suitable postgraduateeconomicsdegree.

Studentships covering the full duration of studies areavailablethroughvarioussources.

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CONTENTS

WELCOME TO MANCHESTER ......................................................... 8

EEA WELCOME ................................................................................... 8

ES WELCOME ...................................................................................... 9

GENERAL INFORMATION .................................................................. 10

SOCIAL PROGRAMME........................................................................ 12

CONGRESS SPONSERS ..................................................................... 12

EXHIBITON ........................................................................................... 13

EEA AND ES SPONSORS ................................................................... 14

EEA AND ES AWARDS AND MEMBERS’ MEETING ........................ 15

WOMEN IN ECONOMICS MENTORING RETREAT ......................... 15

PROGRAMME COMMITTEE ............................................................... 16

ESEM PROGRAMME COMMITTEE 2019 .......................................... 17

MONDAY 26TH AUGUST 2019 ............................................... 18

TUESDAY 27TH AUGUST 2019 .............................................. 32

WEDNESDAY 28TH AUGUST 2019 ........................................ 52

THURSDAY 29TH AUGUST 2019 ............................................ 74

FRIDAY 30TH AUGUST 2019 .................................................. 88

QUICK LOOK: OVERVIEW OF SESSIONS AND ROOMS ............... 90

CONFERENCE OVERVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................... 94

NOTES .................................................................................................. 95

CAMPUS MAP ...................................................................................... 96

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EEA WELCOME

WELCOME TO MANCHESTER EEA-ESEM 2019 will be held on the campus of The

University of Manchester. With its 40000 students and

nearly 4000 staff, the University of Manchester is one of

the largest universities in the UK and one of the top-

ranking European universities. With its long and rich

history, Economics has always been an important pillar

of The University of Manchester. William Stanley Jevons

and the Nobel Laureates John Hicks and Arthur Lewis

are among the most renowned scholars who worked at

Manchester University.

The Economics Department today continues to be

a place at which research of the highest quality is

undertaken.

The department has particular strengths in applied

microeconomics, economic theory, macroeconomics and

development and environmental economics.

We welcome delegates to Manchester, known as the

birthplace of the industrial revolution. Manchester has a

proud history in science, politics, music, arts and sport.

Today Manchester is a modern metropolis with all its

contemporary spoils and easy access to amazing nature

in its surroundings.

Your Local Organising Committee Janet Adnams, Ralf Becker (Chair), James Lincoln, Jane Pinder and Raffaele Rossi

Welcome to the 34th annual congress of the European

Economic Association in Manchester. We continue our

fruitful cooperation with holding a joint congress with

the European Meetings of the Econometric Society.

Our event is the largest gathering of economists in

Europe. 2019 is significant for the EEA, as we gear up

for our second European Job Market (EJM), which will

take place in Rotterdam in December. Building on last

year’s success in Naples, and merging with the former

job markets in Spain and the UK, the EJM has become

the central venue for matching PhD candidates with

recruiters in Europe. Young economists are the backbone

of our annual congress, and I hope to see you all in

December – on both sides of the recruiting tables.

This is a great time to be an economist. On the one

hand, the world is presented with new and important

challenges that require novel scientific analysis and

innovative policy solutions. These challenges comprise

rising inequality and polarization, climate change,

productivity slowdown, and pressure on the welfare state

and international trade and cooperation. On the other

hand, vast amounts of new empirical data and methods

are becoming available, allowing us to make major strides

in social science. I am looking forward to share this

endeavour with you in Manchester.

This year’s scientific program reflects these challenges

and opportunities in economics, from the topics of

the plenary speakers, Chetty and Guerrieri, to the

themes of the many contributed and invited sessions.

I want to thank Barbara Petrongolo and Ricardo Reis

for doing a fantastic job at building the program. I also

want to emphasize the many activities organized by

the EEA standing committees, including the mentoring

retreat for women in

economics (WinE),

the lunch session and

workshops organised by

the Research Committee

and the teaching workshop

organised by the Education

Committee on the last day

of the congress.

Our meeting this year

is in the beautiful city

of Manchester, a city with an immense significance for

economics and human progress, as Manchester’s textile

industry was the epicentre of the Industrial Revolution.

The city has continued to contribute, and I am sure the

conference participants will enjoy the venue, including

Manchester’s rich cultural life.

I am very grateful to the University of Manchester for

hosting us on its campus and to the local organizing

committee (Janet Adnams, James Lincoln, Jane Pinder,

Raffaele Rossi), chaired by Ralf Becker, for their hard

work to ensure that the conference will go smoothly for

the rest of us. Finally, I want to express my deepest

gratitude to Gemma Prunner-Thomas, EEA General

Manager, and to Antonio Cabrales, Executive Vice-

President, for their sustained efforts and dedication to

the association.

I hope you enjoy the congress and I look forward to

seeing you in Manchester.

Kjetil StoreslettenPresident of the European Economic Association

ES WELCOMEIt is a pleasure to welcome

all of you to the 72nd

European Meeting of the

Econometric Society. It is a

special pleasure for me to

return to my home country

and we are grateful to the

University of Manchester

for serving as our host. As

usual we have an extremely

dedicated local organizing

team. On this occasion,

the Local Organizing Committee (LOC) is chaired by Ralf

Becker and includes Janet Adnams, James Lincoln, Jane

Pinder and Raffaele Rossi, who will all ensure that the

Congress runs smoothly. They are looking forward to

welcoming you to Manchester. Manchester has a proud

history in science, politics, music, arts and sport. Today

the city combines this heritage with a progressive vision

to be a city that delivers surprise and delight in equal

measures.

I am also grateful to the program chairs, Raffaella

Giacomini (University College London) and Zvika Neeman

(Tel Aviv University), who have put together a varied

and interesting program for us to enjoy in the coming

days, ably assisted by the Econometric Society’s General

Manager, Lyn Hogan, and the EEA’s Gemma Prunner-

Thomas, and the rest of the program committee. We

have a rich program of invited events.

In addition to the Fisher Schultz Lecture given by Victor

Chernozhukov (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

and the Laffont Lecture by Françoise Forges (Université

Paris-Dauphine), we have a wide range of invited

sessions including: Advances in Empirical Analysis

of Organizations, Oriana Bandiera (London School

of Economics) and Adam Szeidl (Central European

University); Decision Making within Organizations/Political

Economy, Navin Kartik (Columbia University) and Benny

Moldovanu (University of Bonn); Decisions in Markets

and Organizations, Botond Koszegi (Central European

University) and Marco Ottaviani (Bocconi University);

Experimental Economics, Johannes Abeler (University

of Oxford) and Yan Chen (University of Michigan); Micro

and Macro Forecasting, Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern

University) and Frank Schorfheide (University of

Pennsylvania); and New Methods for Sensitivity Analysis,

Stephane Bonhomme (University of Chicago) and Michal

Kolesar (Princeton University).

The program will also include numerous contributed

sessions and, on Friday, August 30, I am pleased that

Robert Shimer (University of Chicago) will present the

Griliches Lectures in Applied Economics. On behalf

of the Econometric Society, I thank them all for their

superb efforts. I am also happy that we have once

again joined forces with the EEA to jointly organize the

seventh Women in Economics (WinE) Mentoring Retreat

held in connection with EEA-ESEM Manchester 2019

and I thank Maria Guadalupe on the ES side and, again,

Gemma Prunner-Thomas from the EEA for their hard

work organizing this exciting venture. This too is a good

opportunity to thank my colleagues on the Regional

Standing Committee, chaired by Orazio Attanasio

(UCL/Yale), who help coordinate the activities of the

Econometric Society in Europe. I would particularly like

to thank Sven Rady who works with calm efficiency as

the Secretary to the Committee and Olivier Scaillet who

ably manages the finances in his role as Treasurer.

The Econometric Society remains one of the few

truly global associations for academic economists. In

addition to its publishing activities, the Society is deeply

committed to bringing economists together in meetings

such as this one. So successful has been the Society

in its mission to promote statistics and mathematical

methods that this now permeates all aspects of

economics. And as our discipline expands in its scope

and breadth, it is remarkable to see how the framework

of economics can be adapted and developed as we will

see in the many original papers on offer at our meeting.

It is a privilege to be part of the Society and to serve as

its President this year as well as being able to participate

in a meeting with so many talented individuals. For those

of you who are here for the first time, I hope that this

will be the first of many meetings and that you remain

engaged with the Econometric Society throughout your

career. I wish all participants an enjoyable meeting

with many stimulating discussions with your fellow

economists.

Stephen MorrisPresident 2019

10 11

CONGRESS VENUECOFFEE BREAKS AND LUNCHESThere will be food stations on the ground floor of University Place building and in the marquee between University Place and Williamson Building.

REGISTRATION AND INFORMATION DESKThe registration and information desk is located on the ground floor of University Place.

Monday, 26 August | 11:30 – 19:00Tuesday, 27 August | 08:00 – 19:00Wednesday, 28 August | 08:00 – 19:00Thursday, 29 August | 08:00 – 17:00Friday, 30 August | 08:00 – 12:00

A luggage storage facility is operating at the same time as the information desk. Please go to the information desk to obtain details.

CERTIFICATE OF ATTENDANCE AND RECEIPT OF PAYMENTIn order to reduce the amount of paper used at EEA-ESEM Manchester 2019, participants will receive a “Certificate of Attendance” and a receipt of payment in pdf format on request only. Requests for these certificates must be made eea-esem19@manchester.ac.uk after the Congress has finished and before 15 September.

PROGRAMME UPDATESThe submission and programme software Conference Maker is updated automatically when changes to the programme are made. You are encouraged to make use of this programme which is linked from the conference website www.eea-esem-congresses.org and the conference app (search the Google or Apple store for "EEA ESEM")

WIFI ACCESSYou are able to access the Internet using your own device via the eduroam network. If you have an account from your home university please use that network and your account to login. Otherwise, you can login into the UoM_Wifi network using the login and password you can find on the back of your badge.

COMPUTER ROOMA computer lab is available in the ground floor of the Arthur Lewis Building and on the ground floor of the George Kenyon building. Please note that students are sitting exams during the conference and you will be sharing these computer labs with students. Unfortunately your login will not give you access to the printers in the computer rooms.

PRINTER ACCESSIf you need to print anything you can use MU-PRINT (www.u-print.com | 0161 868 0977) which is located in 28 Higher Cambridge Street (5 minute walk from the main conference venue).

TWITTERThe Local Organisers will cover the congress at@Manunieconomics using #EEAESEM19. Please use this hashtag if you tweet about the congress.

CONGRESS ASSISTANTSThere are assistants ready to help participants. Congress assistants are easily identifiable by their purple t-shirts.

NAME BADGESAll participants of EEA-ESEM Manchester 2019 are requested to wear their name badges (given at registration) at all times! Only participants wearing name badges will be allowed access to the scientific sessions, coffee and lunch breaks and the social events.

PHOTOGRAPHY AND FILMINGDuring the conference there will be some photography and filming taking place. In case you do not want to appear on pictures or filmed material please contact the conference office via the Reception Desk or via eea-esem19@manchester.ac.uk.

USE OF MOBILE PHONESPlease note that the use of mobile phones during contributed, invited and plenary sessions is forbidden and the mobile phones have to be muted.

SESSION INSTRUCTIONSSHARING INFORMATIONSome audience members may want to share interesting slides via twitter. If you do not want this to happen then please let your audience know. The default position is that audience members can share key messages or images of your presentation.

SESSION ROOMSComputer (MS Windows environment) and projector will be available in each room for presentations. Please use Portable Document Format (.pdf) for presentations. Presenters are requested to bring their presentation on a USB disk. Presenters are asked not to connect to their own laptops as this wastes too much time. Conference Assistants will be positioned on every floor on which sessions are held. They will be able to help or, if required, call for technical support.

GENERAL INFORMATION DURATIONTo ensure that the Conference is running smoothly, we would like to make sure that sessions start and end on time. Also, to ensure that each paper is given sufficient time for presentation and discussion, please stick to the following time rules: make sure that the time available is divided equally over the papers to bePresented and that any remaining time is left for discussion. The chair and speakers should agree the precise format and timing of this discussion: that is whether it covers the session as a whole or comes following each paper.

SESSION CHAIRS Chairs are invited to come to the room 10 minutes prior to the start of the session. They introduce the session and the speakers, make sure that the time rules are followed, and guide the general discussion following the presentation. They should also coordinate with the speakers and agree on the form and precise timing of discussion. In case the scheduled chair does not show up, the presenter of the session’s final paper is expected to take over the role of chair. If your session has fewer papers than expected due to last minute cancellations, you can be a bit more flexible with the time, but bear in mind that the audience might be interested in attending other sessions too.

OTHER USEFUL INFORMATIONTRANSPORT IN AND AROUND MANCHESTERThe most convenient way to move around Manchester is on foot. In addition, there are many taxis.

TRAMThe Metrolink tram network is the largest urban tram network in the UK, consisting of multiple lines bringing passengers into the heart of Manchester city centre. This gives delegates the opportunity to easily visit further afield should they wish. There is, however, no tram line to the main conference venue. The Metrolink stop closest to the main conference venue is St. Peter’s Square. You need to buy tickets from the ticket machines before you start your journey. However, all delegates who purchased dinner tickets will automatically have a free tram ticket to and from the dinner venue (tram stop: Old Trafford, 10 minutes from St. Peter Square) on the evening of the 29th of August. The Metrolink symbol on your delegates badge will serve as a tram ticket.

BUSESThere are a range of different bus companies operating around the Manchester City Centre and University Area (travel time around 10 minutes)

Stagecoach - Single Ticket: £2, Dayticket: £4.80, Buses: 15, 42, 43, 111, 142, 143

Arriva - Single Ticket: £2, Dayticket: £4.60, Buses: 263

These tickets can be bought with coins in the buses, ticket machines at tram stops, or at booths that can be found at some stations. Most buses now also allow for wireless card payment (may only work with domestic bank cards). Tickets are only valid on buses of the same company. If you want to combine bus travel using different companies and tram (Metrolink) travel then you should buy a System One (AnyBus and Tram) ticket, £8.80 for a day ticket. These can also be bought in any bus.

WALKINGManchester city centre has a wide offer of high-quality public realm which, combined with its compact and manageable size, makes it an easy place to traverse on foot.

FREE BUS NETWORKDelegates will benefit from a free city centre bus service, which offers three circular routes covering all of the main areas. The free buses operate with a frequency of about every 10 minutes on two circular routes that service all main city centre destinations. The Free Bus links all city centre railway stations, the main car parks, and many bus and Metrolink tram stops. The free bus stop closest to the main conference venue is at Oxford Rd train station.

You can find more information on Free Bus routes and their frequencies here: www.tfgm.com/public-transport/bus/free-bus.

TAXISThere is a wide range of taxi firms operating in the Greater Manchester region. During large-scale conferences and events the city is well-served to ensure travel is efficient and effective. You can flag-down black cabs anywhere in town and you are unlikely to have to wait longer than 2 or 3 minutes if you wait on the side of a busy street. If you want to order a taxi you will have to either call one (e.g. Radio Cars, 0161 236 8033) or use the Uber App. These companies are not allowed to use the stretch of Oxford Rd which is outside the main conference venue. The best place to arrange a pick-up for is the bus stop at the corner of Oxford Rd and Booth Street West.

IMPORTANT NUMBERSNeed help? 112 is the European emergency phone number available everywhere in the EU, free of charge.

There will also be a bus shuttle from the conference venue to the dinner venue after the last session on Thursday 29th August.

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We are a not-for-profit business unit incorporated within the Growth Company; an economic and social development agency that includes employment services, skills, business support and organisational development.

We are funded through a combination of commercial revenue – including funding from Manchester Airport Group for international campaigns – and local public funds . We work closely in partnership with the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, VisitBritain and other destination management organisations, Department for International Trade and many key stakeholders, in addition to over 500 private sector partners.

It is our privilege to promote Greater Manchester to key sectors including: creative, digital & technology; science; advanced manufacturing; financial and professional services, as well as our underpinning leisure and business tourism sector. Our work is essential to the success of raising the profile of Manchester as a global city and strengthening its position as gateway to the north of England.

The Manchester School was first published more than eighty years ago and has become a distinguished, internationally recognised, general economics journal. The journal publishes high-quality research covering all areas of the economics discipline, although the editors particularly encourage original contributions, or authoritative surveys, in the fields of microeconomics (including industrial organisation and game theory), macroeconomics, econometrics (both theory and applied) and labour economics.

The strategic aim of the journal is to enhance its international standing to a general economics readership, hence the journal considers publishing manuscripts that make a significant contribution in terms of originality, rigour and reach.

SOCIAL PROGRAMME CONGRESS SPONSERS

WELCOME RECEPTION

MONDAY, 26 AUGUST, 2019

A welcome reception will be held on Monday evening at the famous Albert Hall, which is situated in the heart of Manchester. This beautiful Chapel that has now been lovingly restored into an events space frequently used for concerts, shows and events. Many acts have graced the stage such as Sam Smith, Fat Boy Slim and many more. Its spectacular interior will be a brilliant place to meet up with colleagues and celebrate.

It is in walking distance from all inner city hotels and a 20-minute walk from the conference venue. The nearest metrolink station is St. Peter’s Square, which is serviced by all Metrolink lines.

CONGRESS DINNER

THURSDAY, 29 AUGUST, 2019

The Congress Dinner will take place at the Emirates Old Trafford. The venue is part of the iconic Old Trafford cricket ground. The dinner will be a three course sit down dinner and from your table you will enjoy spectacular views of the pitch. Please note that the dinner is only included in the Standard Registration fee, but not in the Reduced Registration fee.

The venue is well connected by the adjacent metrolink (tram) station Old Trafford (take the Altrincham metrolink line from any city centre stop). Trams run every 10 minutes. Conference helpers will be on hand to direct delegates from the tram station to the dinner venue. There will also be a bus shuttle from the conference venue to the dinner venue. The buses will leave from University Place after the conclusion of the day’s final session.

The exhibitors will be located on the ground floor of University Place. There are coffee and lunch stations close by. The opening hours of exhibition are:

Monday August 27 | 14:00 - 19:00 Tuesday August 28 | 08:30 - 19:00 Wednesday August 29 | 08:30 - 19:00 Thursday August 30 | 08:30 - 19:00 Friday August 31 | 08:30 - 12:30

EXHIBITON

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge University Press is a not-for-profit publisher that dates from 1534. We are part of the University of Cambridge and our mission is to unlock people’s potential with the best learning and research solutions. Visit our stand to discuss publishing with us, browse our publications and get a 20% discount.www.cambridge.org/academic

LEIBNIZ CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH (ZEW)The ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim is one of Germany’s leading economic research institutes and has a reputation for excellence throughout Europe. The institute’s principal mission is to study and design well-performing market and institutions in Europe. Its key objectives thereby are to conduct policy-related research and to provide independent, evidence-based economic policy advice. A core mission of ZEW, as a member of the Leibniz Association, is to promote the transfer of knowledge to the professional and lay public.

HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESSFounded in 1913, Harvard University Press is the publisher of classic works, and continues to be a leading publisher of convergent works in the sciences, humanities, and social sciences. HUP’s publication program, which includes important new digital projects and platforms, is driven by the belief that books from academic publishers are more essential than ever before for understanding critical issues facing the world today.

MIT PRESSThe MIT Press is a leading publisher of books and journals, and committed to advancing knowledge by publishing significant works by pioneering authors, and exploring new fields and new modes of inquiry. We honor complexity with provocative and transformative work that crosses academic and geographic boundaries to serve the broadest possible global audience.

OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESSOxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide.

PALGRAVE MACMILLANPalgrave Macmillan publishes award-winning research across the humanities, social sciences and business for academics and professionals. Palgrave Macmillan offers authors and readers the very best in academic content and supports the scholarly community with innovative new formats and tools.

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESSPrinceton University Press is a major academic press, publishing around 250 new books each year. We commission and publish books across the social sciences, sciences, and humanities, from literature to physics, from classics to cognitive science. Our fundamental mission is to disseminate scholarship (through print and digital media) both within academia and to society at large.

SPRINGERSpringer Nature is one of the world’s leading global research, educational and professional publishers, home to an array of respected and trusted brands providing quality content through a range of innovative products and services. Springer Nature is the world’s largest academic book publisher and numbers almost 13,000 staff in over 50 countries. www.springernature.com

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WILEYWiley is a global provider of knowledge and knowledge-enabled services in research, professional practice and education. Developing digital education, learning, assessment and certification, partnering with societies and communicating research discoveries.

ECONFILMSEcon Films is an award-winning production company specialising in film and video about economics, business, finance and public policy – for any audience. What sets us apart is our ability to understand the subject matter and audiences of our clients, taking sometimes complex work and turning it into accurate and enjoyable films that can be watched by a far wider audience. We make all types of video, including animations, documentaries, promos and research videos and we are trusted by clients internationally, including the University of Oxford, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, HM Treasury, the United Nations University, Roosevelt Institute and many more.

THE ECONOMICS NETWORKThe Economics Network supports economics education in the UK and internationally. We aim to enhance the quality of learning and teaching and provide publications, research, resources, training and other events to support economics teaching staff, students and practitioners. Further information can be found on our website at www.economicsnetwork.ac.uk.

EEA INSTITUTIONAL MEMBERS’ SPONSORSHIP OF INVITED SESSIONS The European Economic Association is grateful to its institutional members for their support of the following EEA invited sessions:

BANCA D’ITALIASurveys of Expectations and Their Use

BANK OF ENGLAND Capital Income and Taxes

BANCO DE ESPAÑA Gender and Development

DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK Competition and Concentration

NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

Heterogeneity  in Macroeconomics

OESTERREICHISCHE NATIONALBANK

Aspirations, Skills, and Policies: Women’s Success in the Labour Market

SVERIGES RIKSBANKTechnological Innovation and Cities

EEA AND ES SPONSORS

ES SPONSORSThe Econometric Society wishes to thank the Toulouse School of Economics for its continued support of the Laffont Lecture. The Laffont lecture in ESEM 2019, “Games with Incomplete Information: From Repetition to Cheap Talk and Persuasion” by Francoise Forges (Université Paris-Dauphine) will take place on Wednesday, August 28 at 9:00, and will be chaired by Zvika Neeman.

The EEA would also like to thank the the European Central Bank for organizing the lunch session Communication, Expectations and Monetary Policy

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION

YOUNG ECONOMIST AWARDThe EEA Young Economist Award, which will be given to the authors of the three best papers presented by young economists at the annual congress of the European Economic Association, will be conferred for the fourth time.

Eligible candidates (and all co-authors) should be no more than three years past a PhD defense and current members of the European Economic Association. The Award is sponsored by UniCredit Foundation and each winner is awarded €2,000. The winners will be presented with their awards before the EEA Schumpeter lecture on Monday, August 26.

YRJÖ JAHNSSON AWARDIn 1993 the Finnish Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation established a biennial award, called the Yrjö Jahnsson Award in Economics, for a European economist no older than 45 years old who has made a contribution in theoretical and applied research that is significant to economics in Europe. The European Economic Association (EEA) cooperates with the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation in the selection of the award winners. The 2019 prize was awarded to Oriana Bandiera, STICERD and Department of Economics, LSE, and Imran Rasul, University College London and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Oriana and Imran will be at EEA-ESEM Manchester 2019 for the Award presentation, which will take place before the Presidential Address on Wednesday, August 28.

ECONOMETRIC SOCIETYES Awards: Applied economics papers by young researchers

Two prizes will be awarded for the best papers in applied economics (broadly taken to include applied theory, empirical economics, experimental economics, and computational economics including both micro and macro approaches) presented by young researchers (within ten years of their PhD i.e. for the Manchester meetings with PhD awarded not earlier than January 1 2009). The ESEM Awards will be announced by President Stephen Morris before the ES Presidential Address on Tuesday, August 27.

INSTITUTIONAL MEETINGSEEA Members’ Members Wednesday, August 28 – 19:15 University Place, Lecture Theatre B

EEA AND ES AWARDS AND MEMBERS’ MEETING

WOMEN IN ECONOMICS MENTORING RETREATFollowing on from the very successful past 6 WinE mentoring retreats, the EEA Women in Economics (WinE) Committee holds its 7th Retreat on the afternoon of Sunday, August 25 and the morning of Monday August 26.

The Retreat is open to early career female economists with positions (post-doctoral fellows, lecturers, researchers and assistant professors) at academic and research institutions who obtained their PhDs within 5 years of Retreat. The attendees participate in a series of innovative discussions organized as panels and as smaller groups run by senior mentors. The discussions cover topics such as publishing, writing successful grant applications, networking and career planning, with attention paid to the unique challenges that women may face at different stages of their careers. A number of attendees also take part in small group sessions, which focus on participants’ research papers and provide an opportunity for detailed comment and feed-back from senior mentors in their field. There are also many opportunities for the attendees to socialise with each other and their mentors during this event. The scientific co-chairs of this year’s Retreat are Ingela Alger, Chair of the EEA’s Women in Economics Committee, and Maria Guadalupe, ES

representative. The EEA also thanks the other mentors - Ghazala Azmat, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Rachel Griffith, Ana Lamo, Gilat Levy, Isabel Schnabel, Sarah Smith and Sigrid Suetens - for their participation.

ORGANISERS AND SPONSORSThe WinE Retreat is supported by funding from EEA and ES and an annual donation received by The Review of Economic Studies. The Retreat is organized by the EEA central office in collaboration with the WinE Committee, chaired by Ingela Alger, and a scientific co-chair nominated by the Econometric Society. From 2017 onwards, the WinE Retreat also benefits from a kind donation from the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is committed to enhancing gender diversity in the economics profession. It is also currently engaged in increasing the share of women in its own leadership ranks. Having achieved a share of 29.7% of women in management-level positions and 26.5 % of women in senior management-level positions in 2018, the ECB is now striving to further increase these numbers, as well as achieving additional targets for Principal Economists (42%) and Senior/Economists (50%), in order to increase the internal pipeline

of talented female candidates for managerial positions.

The topic of gender diversity has been high on the ECB’s agenda as the organisation aims to identify, attract and develop female talent. The ECB has implemented a wide variety of gender diversity measures, including recruitment and promotion policies, an open day for female talent focusing on university students and the establishment of several Diversity Networks. Upcoming priorities include gender equality certification and benchmarking, as well as inclusive leadership training for managers.

Finally, the ECB has launched a scholarship programme to support women pursuing a master’s degree in economics in Europe. The €10,000 per year scholarship for tuition and other related costs will be awarded to up to five female students from lower-income backgrounds.

8TH WINE RETREAT, EEA ROTTERDAM 2020The 8th WinE Retreat will take place during EEA Rotterdam. Full information on this can be found on the WinE section of EEA website from November onwards.

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Arun AdvaniMarina AgranovOzge AkinciLarbi AlaouiMiguel AlmuniaSteffen AltmannDante AmengualMassimo AnelliJose ApesteguiaRosella ArgenzianoSophie BadeSaleem BahajGaetano BassoJeanet BentzenPietro BiroliJo BlandenAlessandra BonfiglioliFernando BronerMax Bruche Lorenzo CasaburiEfrem CastelnuovoGeorgy ChabakauriPaola ConconiRosario CrinoTugce CuhadarogluJonathan De QuidtEmilia Del Bono

Davide DebortoliFrancesco DecarolisFrédéric Docquier Libor DusekPawel DziewulskiFrancesco FasaniAxelle FerriereSebastian FindeisenReto Foellmi Luca FornaroMaren FroemelPatricia FunkLola Gadea Lucie GadenneCaterina GennaioliFrancois GerardMariassunta GiannettiChryssi Giannitsarou Rita GinjaMaria GuadalupeMartin HallaInes HelmHelios Herrera David HemousErik Hornung Isabel Horta Correia

Clement ImbertVasco IoannidouSimon JaegerWillemien KetsGeorg KirchsteigerTerri KneelandYukio KoriyamaUdo KreickemeierKeith Kuester Thomas Le BarbachonMiguel Leon-LedesmaAttila LindnerAndreas LoeschelKatrine LokenSara Lowes Franck MalhebertBenjamin MarxMichael McMahonIsabelle MéjeanPepita MiquelAlessio MoroHaroon MumtazMirabelle MuulsDavid NagyGaia Narciso

Joana NaritomiPeter NilssonRigas OikonomouSteven Ongena Banu Demir PakelEvi PappaMaria PetrovJohannes PfeiferGiorgia PiacentinoPia PingerPaolo PinottiJacquelyn PlessCeline Poilly Franck PortierSébastien PougetAnna RauteRafael RepulloMarta Reynal-QuerolDominic RohnerMariacristina RossiSefi RothKjell SalvanesGabriella SantangeloAndreas SchabertFabiano SchivardiIsabel Schnabel Petr Sedlacek

Enrico SetteOlmo SilvaSandro ShelegiaSergey Slobodyan Howard SmithAlexandra Spitz-OenerStefan StaubliVania StavrakevaAndreas SteinhauerAgnieszka TymulaRick van der PloegOliver Vanden EyndeNeeltje VanhorenLiliana VarelaCarolina Villegas SánchezHans Martin von GaudekerUlrich WagnerFelix WeinhardtKamil Yılmaz Tanju YorulmazerAdam Zawadowski Shengxing ZhangGalina Zudenkova

EEA PROGRAMME COMMITTEE 2019

CHAIRSBarbara Petrongolo(Queen Mary University London)

Ricardo Reis(London School of Economics)

AREA COORDINATORSApplied MicroeconomicsMarco Manacorda and Andrea Weber

Applied MacroeconomicsPaolo Surico

Behavioural and Experimental EconomicsAniol Llorente-Saguer

DevelopmentRocco Macchiavello

EconometricsPaolo Surico

Economic GeographyDaniel Sturm

Economic HistorySascha Becker

Economic TheoryPaola Manzini

EnvironmentalRalf Martin

FinancePeter Kondor and Jose Luis Peydro

Industrial OrganizationAlessandro Gavazza

International EconomicsThomas Sampson

LabourSteve Machin and Josef Zweimuller

Law and EconomicsRandi Hjalmarsson

MacroeconomicsKlaus Adam, Nezih Guner, Refet Gürkaynak and Rachel Ngai

Political EconomicsQuoc-Anh Do

Public EconomicsCamille Landais

PROGRAMME COMMITTEE

PROGRAMME COMMITTEE MEMBERS

ESEM PROGRAMME COMMITTEE 2019

PROGRAMME COMMITTEE MEMBERS

CHAIRSRaffaella Giacomini(University College London)

Zvika Neeman(Tel Aviv University)

AREA COORDINATORSDevelopment EconomicsRocco Macchiavello

EconometricsAna Galvao, Andrew Patton, Martin Weidner

Economic TheoryFrancis Bloch, Alex Gershkov, Massimo Marinacci

Empirical StudiesAlma Cohen

Environmental EconomicsAlma Cohen

Experimental and Behavioural EconomicsRo’i Zultan

FinanceChris Julliard, Antonio Guarino

Industrial OrganisationAlon Eisenberg

International EconomicsKalina Manova

Labour EconomicsItay Saporta

MacroeconomicsNicola Pavoni, Morten Ravn, Antonella Trigari Political Economy & Public EconomicsRaphael Franck

Jaap AbbringArun AdvaniToke S. AidtNizar AllouchAdrien Auclert Ghazala AzmatZsofia BaranyGianluca Benigno Francesco Bianchi Richard BluhmIrene BotosaruNina Boyarchenko Yann Bramoulle Fernando Broner Christian Brownlees Svetlana Bryzgalova Giacomo Calzolari Lorenzo Casaburi Simone Cerreia-Vioglio Christopher

Chambers Daniel L Chen Brice Corgnet Laura Coroneo Valentina Corradi Max CroceWei Cui Xavier D’Haultfoeuille Jonathan De Quidt Daniela Del Boca Swati Dhingra Pierre Dubois Avraham Ebenstein Jan EeckhoutJuan Carlos Escanciano Susanna Esteban Ozgur EvrenNatalia FabraNaomi Feldman Miguel Fonseca

Lucie GadenneDaniel GarrettEric GautierNicola Gennaioli Sebastian Goerg John HasslerNikolaus HautschAstrid Hopfensitz Clement ImbertIlze KalninaFrank KleibergenMiklos KorenNenad KosJennifer La’oAttila LinderFrederic MalherbeAna MauleonBlaise MellyKarel MertensClaudio Michelacci Konrad Mierendorff

Stefania MinardiPepita MiquelSilvia Mirando-Agrippino Kurt MitmanPhilippe MuellerArash NekoeiKathleen Ngangoue Helena NielsenEvi PappaIvan PetrellaFacundo PiguillemPaolo PinMikkel Plagborg-Moller Fabien Postel-Vinay Andrea PozziPaola ProfetaRoland RathelotPontus Rendahl Christoph Rothe

Gabriella Santangelo Bertel SchjerningTom SchmitzTatevik Sekhposyan Michel SerafinelliVania Stavrakeva Vincent SterkOlivier TercieuxMathias Trabandt Thomas TrögerAkos ValentinyiBas Van der Klaauw Frank Verboven Marie VigeralSarit Weisburd Alexander Westkamp Joachim Winter Andy Zapechelnyuk

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MONDAY 26TH AUGUST 2019

MONDAY

12:30 to 14:00The Deaton Review

University Place – Theatre A

INEQUALITIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY CHALLENGES FOR ECONOMICS AND FOR POLICY

Speakers:Richard Blundell, (IFS and UCL), Inequality and the Labour Market

Penny Goldberg, (Yale and Chief Economist, World Bank), The Unequal Effects of Globalisation

Tim Besley, (LSE) Inequality: Some Political Economy Issues

Orazio Attanasio, (UCL and IFS), Inequality and Human Development: a Two Way Link.

Chair: James Banks, (IFS and Manchester)

Organised by ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS.

14:15 to 16:00Contributed Sessions 1

EEA SESSIONS

ACCESS TO HEALTH INSURANCE

University Place - 1.219Chair: George Stoye, Institute for Fiscal Studies

• Cream Skimming by Health Care Providers and Inequality in Health Care Access: Evidence from a Randomized Field ExperimentPresented by: Anna Werbeck, RGS Econ

• Socioeconomic inequalities in the use of English public hospitalsPresented by: Benjamin Zaranko, Institute for Fiscal Studies

• Does Hospital Crowding Matter? Evidence from Trauma and Orthopedics in EnglandPresented by: Thomas Hoe, Cornell University

• The Distribution of Physician Quality: Evidence from the English National Health ServicePresented by: George Stoye, Institute for Fiscal Studies

ASSET PRICES AND POLITICS

University Place - 4.211Chair: Sohnke Bartram, University of Warwick

• Rational Response or Irrational Fear? Financial Markets and Terrorism in Tsarist RussiaPresented by: Christopher A. Hartwell, Bournemouth University

• Fear and EuphoriaPresented by: Thorsten Lehnert, University of Luxembourg

• Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did Immigration Cause Brexit?Presented by: Max Viskanic, Sciences Po Paris and LIEPP

• Real Effects of Climate Policy: Financial Constraints and SpilloversPresented by: Sohnke Bartram, University of Warwick

AUTOMATION, AI AND GROWTH

University Place - 3.204Chair: Andreas Irmen, University of Luxembourg

• The Hardware-Software Model: A New Conceptual Framework of Production, R&D, and Growth with AIPresented by: Jakub Growiec, Warsaw School of Economics & Narodowy Bank Polski

• Automation, Growth and Factor SharesPresented by: Joseba Martinez, London Business School

• Do Robots Increase Wealth Dispersion?Presented by: Thomas Jansson, Sveriges riksbank

• AUTOMATION, FACTOR SHARES, AND GROWTH IN THE ERA OF POPULATION AGINGPresented by: Andreas Irmen, University of Luxembourg

BANKS, DEBT AND CRISIS

University Place - 3.213Chair: Johannes Poeschl, Danmarks Nationalbank

• An Early Warning System For Banking Crises: From Regression-based Analysis To Machine Learning TechniquesPresented by: Elizabeth Casabianca, Prometeia Associazione

• Euro area sovereign risk spillovers before and after the ECB’s OMT announcementPresented by: Niels Gilbert, De Nederlandsche Bank

• Welfare-Enhancing Properties of Countercyclical Bank Capital RequirementsPresented by: Aliaksandr Zaretski, Emory University

MONDAY

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• Bank Capital Regulation and Endogenous Shadow Banking CrisesPresented by: Johannes Poeschl, Danmarks Nationalbank

BEHAVIOURAL GAME THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS

University Place - 2.220Chair: Lawrence Choo, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg

• An Evaluation of Bounded Rationality in (Experimental) NetworksPresented by: Sebastian Cortes Corrales, University of Leicester

• Theory of Mind and Strategic Decision-MakingPresented by: Neha Bose, University of Warwick

• Integrating Context Effects into Procedural Decision MakingPresented by: Fynn Strohecker, University of Rostock

• Can auctions select people by their level-k types?Presented by: Lawrence Choo, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg

COGNITIVE AND NON-COGNITIVE SKILLS: LEARNING, ATTAINMENT AND EARNINGS

Kilburn Building - 1.5Chair: Elise Huillery, University Paris-Dauphine elise.huillery@dauphine.fr

• Non-Cognitive Skills and the College PremiumPresented by: Gerda Buchmueller, Lancaster University

• Mind the Gap: The role of skill dispersion on future attainmentPresented by: Mariana Tavares, School of Business and Economics - Maastricht University

• Skills Accumulation with Malleable Ability: Evidence from a Growth Mindset InterventionPresented by: Sonkurt Sen, University of Essex

• The Impact of a Large-Scale Mindset Intervention on School Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from FrancePresented by: Elise Huillery, University Paris-Dauphine

ECONOMETRIC METHODS

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Robert Lieli, Central European University

• Rotated Slice Sampling for Efficient and Robust Estimation of DSGE ModelsPresented by: Marco Ratto, European Commission - Joint Research Centre

• Causal Inference and Data-Fusion in EconometricsPresented by: Paul Hunermund, Maastricht University

• Identification and Estimation of Parameter Instability in a High-dimensional Factor ModelPresented by: Yiru Wang, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF)

• Treatment Effect Analysis for Pairs with Endogenous Treatment TakeupPresented by: Robert Lieli, Central European University

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND REGULATION I

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Dario Fauceglia, Zurich University of Applied Sciences

• Carbon taxes and stranded assets: Evidence from Washington statePresented by: Suphi Sen, ifo Institute

• Pigou pushes preferences: decarbonisation and endogenous valuesPresented by: Linus Mattauch

• Subsidising Renewables but Taxing Storage? Second-Best Policies with Imperfect Carbon PricingPresented by: Mathias Mier, ifo Institute

• How do plants respond to a rising carbon tax? Empirical evidence on energy consumption and emissionsPresented by: Dario Fauceglia, Zurich University of Applied Sciences

EXPERIMENTAL FINANCE

University Place - 2.217Chair: Peter Matthews, Middlebury College

• Cognitive dissonance, investor beliefs and the disposition effectPresented by: Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe, University of Alicante

• Perceived Wealth and Borrowing Attitudes: The Leverage Bias Hypothesis Presented by: Alberto Cardaci, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

MONDAY

MONDAY

• Individual Heterogeneity of Default Effects in Car InsurancePresented by: Markus Nöth, University of Hamburg

• Choice Architecture to Improve Financial Decision MakingPresented by: Peter Matthews, Middlebury College

EXPERIMENTAL LABOUR ECONOMICS

University Place - 2.219Chair: Andreas Orland, University of Potsdam

• In Search of a Better Life: Self-Control in the Ethiopian Labor MarketPresented by: Christian Meyer, European University Institute

• Can nudges increase employee performance? Evidence from a field experimentPresented by: Christin Hoffmann, Brandenburg University of Technology

• Competition and Fatigue at WorkPresented by: Vera Angelova

• Flexible Work Arrangements and Precautionary Behavior: Theory and Experimental EvidencePresented by: Andreas Orland, University of Potsdam

FINANCE AND THE REAL ECONOMY

University Place - 4.213Chair: João Santos, Nova School of Business and Economics

• Trainspotting: Board Appointments in Private FirmsPresented by: Audinga Baltrunaite, Bank of Italy

• Identifying Ex Post Moral Hazard: Evidence from Car InsurancePresented by: Michael Jung, University of Hamburg

• No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a RecessionPresented by: John Mondragon, Northwestern University

• Collateral Value and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from a Property TaxPresented by: João Santos, Nova School of Business and Economics

GENDER IN THE LABOUR MARKET

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: German Cubas, University of Houston

• Gender norms and income misreporting within householdsPresented by: Michaela Slotwinski, Universität Basel & ZEW Mannheim

• Working from Home: Heterogeneous Effects on Hours Worked and WagesPresented by: Sarra Ben Yahmed, ZEW Mannheim

• Gender and Lawmaking in Times of Quotas. Evidence from the French ParliamentPresented by: Quentin Lippmann, Paris School of Economics

• Coordinated Work Schedules and the Gender Wage GapPresented by: German Cubas, University of Houston

HOUSING AND LOCAL LABOUR MARKETS

University Place - 4.209Chair: Daniel Da Mata, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

• Out of the darkness: Re-allocation of confiscated real estate mafia assetsPresented by: Marco Di CataldoLondon School of Economics

• PUBLIC HOUSING, WAITING LISTS AND LOTTERIES: QUASI- NATURAL EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM AMSTERDAMPresented by: Arno Van der Vlist, University of Groningen

• Not in my Electoral BackyardPresented by: Martin Guenther, Royal Holloway College, University of London

• Labor Market Effects of Public Housing: Evidence from Large-Scale LotteriesPresented by: Daniel Da Mata, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

INEQUALITY

University Place - 4.205Chair: Andrew Aitken, National Institute of Economic & Social Research

• Quantifying social segregation in large-scale networksPresented by: Bjorn-Atle Reme, Telenor Research

• Income Inequality and the Size of Government: A Causal AnalysisPresented by: Martin Guzi, Masaryk University

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• Inequality and Extremist Voting: Evidence from GermanyPresented by: Florian Neumeier, ifo Institute Munich; University of Munich (LMU)

• A Democratic Measure of National Income Growth for the United Kingdom, 2006-2015. Methods and Estimates.Presented by: Andrew Aitken, National Institute of Economic & Social Research

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

Jean McFarlane - G306 aChair: Fabrizio Venditti, European Central Bank

• Alternative Measures of Capital Flight towards GermanyPresented by: Sven Steinkamp, Osnabrueck University

• FX funding shocks and cross-border lending: Fragmentation mattersPresented by: Fernando Eguren-Martin, Bank of England

• Valuation Effects and Capital Flows - Security Level Evidence from Euro Area InvestorsPresented by: Martin Schmitz, European Central Bank

• The Global Capital Flows Cycle: Structural Drivers and Transmission ChannelsPresented by: Fabrizio Venditti, European Central Bank

MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS: HIGH FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION

University Place - 3.209Chair: Joao Duarte, Nova SBE

• Information Effects of Euro Area Monetary Policy: New Evidence from High-Frequency Futures DataPresented by: Mark Kerssenfischer, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Are Consumers’ Spending Decisions in Line With an Euler Equation?Presented by: Lena Dräger, Leibniz University Hannover

• Monetary Policy and Structural ReformsPresented by: Malte Rieth, DIW Berlin

• One Money, Many MarketsPresented by: Joao Duarte, Nova SBE

MONETARY POLICY TRADEOFFS

University Place - 3.211Chair: Michael Ehrmann, ECB

• All Together Now: Does Macroeconomic Uncertainty Affect Dissent on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee?Presented by: Kate Reinold, Bank of England

• ECB vs Bundesbank: Diverging Tones and Policy EffectivenessPresented by: Peter Tillmann, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen

• Vague Talk in ECB Press Conference: News or Noise?Presented by: Zexi Sun, Goethe University Frankfurt

• Strategic interactions in preparing for committee meetingsPresented by: Michael Ehrmann, ECB

PROTECTIONISM

Kilburn Building - 1.4Chair: Wilko Bolt, De Nederlandsche Bank

• Nobody Wins: Protectionism and (Un)employment In a Model-Based AnalysisPresented by: Matija Lozej, Central Bank of Ireland

• The China Shock and the Nationalist Backlash against Globalization: Attitudinal Evidence from the British Household Panel SurveyPresented by: Philipp Harms, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

• China Syndrome Redux: New Results on Global Labor ReallocationPresented by: Weidi Yua, University of Geneva

• The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflictPresented by: Wilko Bolt, De Nederlandsche Bank

REGULATION AND INFORMATION

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: Spyros Terovitis, University of Amsterdam

• Regulating Global ExternalitiesPresented by: Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans, Tilburg University

• Heterogeneous preferences in competitive insurance marketsPresented by: Christian Kubitza, University of Bonn

• Raising Capital Under Demand UncertaintyPresented by: Spyros Terovitis, University of Amsterdam

MONDAY

MONDAY

• Regulation with Experimentation: Ex Ante Approval, Ex Post Withdrawal, and LiabilityPresented by: Marco Ottaviani, Bocconi University

SOCIAL CONNECTIONS IN POLITICS

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Tom-Reiel Heggedal, BI Norwegian Business School

• Mobility and Mobilisation: Railways and the Spread of Social MovementsPresented by: Eric Melander, University of Warwick

• Social Network, Career Incentive and Interregional Trade in ChinaPresented by: Erqi GE, Universtitat Pompeu Fabra

• The Effects of Across-Regime Interpersonal Contact on the Support for Authoritarian RegimesPresented by: Andreas Stegmann, CEMFI

• Political Alignment and Bureaucratic PayPresented by: Tom-Reiel Heggedal, BI Norwegian Business School

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Jean McFarlane - 2.329Chair: Sarmistha Pal, University of Surrey

• Cuius Regio Eius Religio: Financial Development and Growth in European Regions Presented by: Paola Rossi, Banca d’Italia

• Better roads, better off? Evidence on improving roads in TanzaniaPresented by: Ximena Játiva, University of Fribourg

• A Closer Look at the Mechanism of Structural Transformation: the Role of Biased Technical Change in AgriculturePresented by: Arnaud Daymard, Université de Cergy-Pontoise

• Unintended Consequences of Land Ceiling Legislations- Theory and Evidence from the Indian StatesPresented by: Sarmistha Pal, University of Surrey

THE ROLE OF OIL AND FISCAL POLICY IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Simon CChair: Stephanie Ettmeier, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin

• The macroeconomic effects of oil supply shocks: new evidence from OPEC announcementsPresented by: Diego Känzig, London Business School

• Business cycle accounting for the German fiscal stimulus programPresented by: Daniel Fehrle, University of Augsburg

• Determinants of Fiscal Multipliers RevisitedPresented by: Lorant Kaszab, Central Bank of Hungary

• Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great InflationPresented by: Stephanie Ettmeier, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin

TRADE POLICY

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Gino Gancia, QMUL and CREI

• Which Sanctions Matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian Sanctions of 2014Presented by: Matěj Bělín, CERGE-EI

• Public Procurement-Related Protection: Insights form the Global Trade Alert Database Presented by: Enxhi Tresa, University of Cergy-Pontoise

• Can the optimal tariff be zero for a growing large country?Presented by: Takumi Naito, Waseda University

• Firms and Economic Performance: A View from TradePresented by: Gino Gancia, QMUL and CREI

UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOUR MARKET POLICIES

Kilburn Building - 1.3Chair: Christian Hutter, Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

• Generosity versus Duration Trade-Off and the Optimization Ability of the UnemployedPresented by: Laura KHOURY, Paris School of Economics

• Timed to Say Goodbye: Does Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Affect Workers’ Layoffs?Presented by: Andrea Albanese, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research

• Effect of Unemployment Benefit Generosity on Geographical MobilityPresented by: Tania Fernández Navia, University of Barcelona

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• Which Factors are behind Germany’s Labour Market Upswing?Presented by: Christian Hutter, Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

ES SESSIONS

DATA UNCERTAINTY AND MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING

University Place - 3.212Chair: Ana Beatriz Galvao, University of Warwick

• Can GDP measurement be further improved? Data revision and reconciliationPresented by: Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal

• Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England’s Fan Charts for Historical GDP GrowthPresented by: James Mitchell, University of Warwick

• Optimal Pooling and Finite Mixture Distribution: a Comparison between Approaches to Density ForecastPresented by: Giulia Mantoan, University of Warwick

• How and When Does Judgment Improve the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts? Presented by: Ana Beatriz Galvao, University of Warwick

DYNAMIC GAMES

University Place - 4.214Chair: Leandro Gorno, FGV EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças

• WARS OF ATTRITION WITH PRIVATE BUDGETSPresented by: Bingchao Huangfu, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

• On the Management of Population ImmunityPresented by: Flavio Toxvaerd, University of Cambridge

• Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets Under AmbiguityPresented by: Spyros Galanis, City, University of London

• Dynamic pricing in multi-segment markets with new substitutes.Presented by: Leandro Gorno, FGV EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças

FISCAL POLICY: DEBT AND POSITIVE ISSUES

University Place - 3.205Chair: Octavio Tourinho, UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

• How to tax capital?Presented by: Cagri Kumru, Australian National University

• Government Debt Maturity Structure, Fiscal Policy, and DefaultPresented by: Sergii Kiiashko, National Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv School of Economics

• Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate WorldPresented by: Neil Mehrotra, Brown University

• Fiscal Policy for Public Debt Stabilization in a Multiple Household Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for BrazilPresented by: Octavio Tourinho, UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

INFORMATION AND MECHANISM DESIGN

University Place - 4.204Chair: Zvika Neeman, Tel Aviv University

• Partnership Dissolution with Cash-constrained AgentsPresented by: Guillaume Pommey, Paris School of Economics and EHESS

• Bilateral Trade with JustificationPresented by: Matthias Lang, University of Munich (LMU)

• Information Design with AgencyPresented by: Jacopo Bizzotto, OsloMet

• Optimal Media CensorshipPresented by: Andy Zapechelnyuk, University of St Andrews

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Jarko Fidrmuc, ZU Friedrichshafen

• Exchange Rates, Strategic Uncertainty and International Bank LendingPresented by: Stefano Schiaffi, Bank of Italy

• Foreign Exchange Dealer Asset PricingPresented by: Dennis Umlandt, University of Kiel

• Cryptocurrency Market Efficiency: Evidence from Time-Frequency AnalysisPresented by: Jarko Fidrmuc, ZU Friedrichshafen

MONDAY

MONDAY

LABOUR MARKETS, GENDER AND HUMAN CAPITAL

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Nicholas Lawson, Université du Québec à Montréal

• Menstruation Hygiene Management and Work Attendance in a Developing CountryPresented by: Astrid Krenz, Durham University

• Dynamic Complementarities Very Early in Life: Family Planning, Early Childhood Education, and Lifetime Human CapitalPresented by: Shuqiao Sun, University of Michigan

• Minimum wage, informality and economic developmentPresented by: Jin Ho Kim, The George Washington University

• Fiscal Externalities and Underinvestment in Early-Life Human Capital: Optimal Policy Instruments for a Developing CountryPresented by: Nicholas Lawson, Université du Québec à Montréal

MACROECONOMICS: GROWTH

University Place - 2.218Chair: Diego Restuccia, University of Toronto

• Skill Premium and Preferential Policy: The Case of ChinaPresented by: Qing Liu, Tsinghua University

• An Elementary Theory of Directed Technical Change and Wage InequalityPresented by: Jonas Loebbing, University of Cologne

• Non-Renewable Resources, Extraction Technology and Endogenous GrowthPresented by: Martin Stuermer, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

• Dynamic Misallocation AccountingPresented by: Diego Restuccia, University of Toronto

POLITICAL ECONOMY OF EDUCATION

University Place - 4.206Chair: Ernesto Villanueva, Banco de España

• Gender differences in citations at top economics journalsPresented by: Erin Hengel, University of Liverpool

• An empirical analysis of college admissions with endogenous entrance exam scoresPresented by: Hayri Arslan, Queen’s University

• Information Operations Increase Civilian Security Cooperation and Support for ReintegrationPresented by: Konstantin Sonin, University of Chicago

• Selection Bias Among Participants in High School Financial Literacy Programs: Evidence from PISA Presented by: Ernesto Villanueva, Banco de España

POLITICAL POLARIZATION

University Place - 1.218Chair: Ran spiegler, N/A

• A Theory on Media Bias and ElectionsPresented by: Junze Sun, University of Amsterdam

• Economic inequality, political polarization and voter turnoutPresented by: Erika Pini, Université Catholique de Louvain

• The Rise of Radicalism: Self-Serving Leadership and Asymmetric InformationPresented by: Heng Chen, The University of Hong Kong

• A Model of Competing NarrativesPresented by: ran spiegler, N/A

PRODUCTIVITY: THEORY AND MEASUREMENT

University Place - 3.210Chair: Javier Quintana Gonzalez, Bocconi University, Milan

• Endogenous Technological Change and the New Keynesian ModelPresented by: Toshihiro Okada, Kwansei Gakuin University

• Technological Diffusion, Productivity Dispersion, and So-called Allocative InefficiencyPresented by: Li Anpeng, The Australian National University

• Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic ProfitsPresented by: Anthony Savagar, University of Kent

• A New Measure of Utilization-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity Growth for European CountriesPresented by: Javier Quintana Gonzalez, Bocconi University, Milan

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REGULATION AND MARKET OUTCOMES

Jean McFarlane - 2.328Chair: Ignacia Mercadal, Columbia University

• Intermediary Commissions in a Regulated Market with Heterogeneous CustomersPresented by: Bernardita Vial Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile

• Labor market reform and innovation. Evidence from SpainPresented by: Maria Garcia-Vega. Nottingham University

• Does External Monitoring from Government Improve the Performance of State-Owned EnterprisesPresented by: Shengyu Li, he University of New South Wales

• Shades of Integration: The Restructuring of the U.S. Electricity MarketsPresented by: Ignacia Mercadal, Columbia University

SEMI/NONPARAMETRIC METHODS

University Place - 3.214Chair: Keith Knight, University of Toronto

• Honest condence sets in nonparametric IV regression and other ill-posed modelsPresented by: Andrii Babii, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

• An Averaging Estimator For Two Step M Estimation In Semiparametric ModelsPresented by: Ruoyao Shi, University of California Riverside

• A specification test for semiparametric models with generated regressorsPresented by: ELIA LAPENTA, Toulouse School of Economics

• Leverage in penalized least squares estimationPresented by: Keith Knight, University of Toronto

TAXATION AND LABOUR MARKETS

University Place - 4.212Chair: Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, University of Copenhagen

• Optimal Taxation of Employment and Self-Employment: Evidence from Poland and ImplicationsPresented by: Tomasz Zawisza, European University Institute

• Voting over Selfishly Optimal Income Tax Schedules with Tax-Driven MigrationsPresented by: Darong Dai, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

• Electoral Systems, Heterogeneous Fiscal Policy and Labor RegulationsPresented by: Shiv Dixit, University of Minnesota

• Social Security and Formal Labor Market Participation: A Dynamic Political ApproachPresented by: Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, University of Copenhagen

VOLATILITY MODELS

University Place - 4.210Chair: Christopher Walsh, Technical University Dortmund

• The volume-volatility relation of trades: A bivariate stochastic conditional modelPresented by: Manh Cuong Pham, Lancaster University

• Forecasting Large Stochastic Covariance MatricesPresented by: André Santos, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

• Testing Constant Cross-Sectional Dependence with Time-Varying Marginal Distributions in Parametric ModelsPresented by: Matthias Kaldorf, University of Cologne

• Locally stationary multiplicative volatility modellingPresented by: Christopher Walsh, Technical University Dortmund

16:30 to 17:45Contributed Sessions 2

EEA SESSIONS

BANK RISK

University Place - 2.219Chair: Dawid Zochowski, European Central Bank

• Bank Risk-Taking and MisconductPresented by: Ieva Sakalauskaite, Bank of England/University of Amsterdam

• Bank funding costs and solvencyPresented by: Dawid Zochowski, European Central Bank

MONDAY

MONDAY

BONDS AND COMMODITIES

University Place - 2.217Chair: Romulo Alves, Rotterdam School of Management (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

• Monetary policy under the microscope: The effect of the ECB asset purchase program on bond market concentrationPresented by: Martijn Boermans, De Nederlandsche Bank

• Lighting up the Dark: Liquidity in the German Corporate Bond MarketPresented by: Yalin Gunduz, Deutsche Bundesbank

• The Information Content of Commodity Futures MarketsPresented by: Romulo Alves, Rotterdam School of Management (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

BUSINESS CYCLES

University Place - 3.204Chair: Zivile Zekaite, Central Bank of Ireland

• Towards Technology-News-Driven Business CyclesPresented by: Spyridon Sichlimiris, Örebro university

• Distributional Imbalances and the U.S. Business CyclePresented by: Nikolaos Charalampidis, University of California, Irvine

• Non-linearity in the wage Phillips curve: A euro area and country-level analysisPresented by: Zivile Zekaite, Central Bank of Ireland

CONTRACTS AND ORGANIZATIONS

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Daniela Scur, Massachussets Institute of Technology

• Promotions, Hazards, and EffortsPresented by: Antoine RENUCCI, UPPA

• Contract Manufacturing in Value ChainsPresented by: Wolfgang Gick, IFN Stockholm and Free U Bolzano

• Picking from the top or shedding from the bottom? Personnel management, worker quality and firm productivityPresented by: Daniela Scur, Massachussets Institute of Technology

DEMOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT

University Place - 4.213Chair: Rachel Cassidy, Institute for Fiscal Studies

• Local economic growth and infant mortalityPresented by: Andreas Kammerlander,

• Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic GrowthPresented by: Michael Dotsey, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

• The Power to Protect: Household Bargaining and Female Condom Use Presented by: Rachel Cassidy, Institute for Fiscal Studies

ELDERLY CARE

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Norman Bannenberg, University of Duisburg-Essen

• The intergenerational effect of children’s education on parental mental healthPresented by: Jakob Everding, University of Hamburg

• Long-run consequences of informal elderly care and implications of public long-term care insurancePresented by: Thorben Korfhage, RWI-Essen

• Preventive Home Visits in NorwayPresented by: Norman Bannenberg, University of Duisburg-Essen

GLOBAL LINKAGES

University Place - 1.219Chair: Chryssi Giannitsarou, University of Cambridge

• Sovereign Spread ShocksPresented by: Susanne Wellmann, University of Tuebingen

• Masking the truth or softening the blow? U.S. banking deregulation and sectoral reallocation after the China trade shockPresented by: Lilia Ruslanova (Khabibulina), University of Zurich

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AS A DETERMINANT OF CROSS-COUNTRY STOCK MARKET COMOVEMENT

Presented by: Chryssi Giannitsarou, University of Cambridge

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INFORMATION TRANSMISSION IN NETWORKS

University Place - 4.209Chair: Helmut Stix, Oesterreichische Nationalbank

• Individual vs Group Decision-Making: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Arbitration ProceedingsPresented by: Naomi Gershoni, Ben Gurion University of the Negev

• Peer Effects in Art PricesPresented by: Maria Marchenko, WU Vienna

• How Peer Groups Influence Economic PerceptionsPresented by: Helmut Stix, Oesterreichische Nationalbank

MEDIA OF INFORMATION TRANSMISSION

University Place - 4.211Chair: Oliver Rehbein, University of Bonn

• Advertising and Content Differentiation: Evidence from YouTubePresented by: Anna Kerkhof, University of Cologne

• Topics and Geographical Diffusion of Knowledge in Top Economic JournalsPresented by: Fabio Montobbio, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

• Does publication lead to publication? The effect of author reputation on publication successPresented by: Oliver Rehbein, University of Bonn

MISALLOCATION AND MISMATCH

University Place - 3.209Chair: Andreas Westermark, Sveriges Riksbank

• Factor Misallocation and Adjustment Costs: Evidence from ItalyPresented by: Robert Goodhead, Central Bank of Ireland

• Low Competition TrapsPresented by: Francisco Queiros, European University Institute

• Skill Loss, Job Mismatch and the Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionPresented by: Andreas Westermark, Sveriges Riksbank

MONETARY POLICY AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

University Place - 3.211Chair: Johannes Strobel, Goethe-University Frankfurt

• Optimal Monetary Policy, Least Squares Learning, and the Zero Bound to Interest RatesPresented by: Petr Harasimovic, Loughborough University

• Expectations formation, sticky prices, and the ZLBPresented by: Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

• Time-Varying Risk Shocks and the Zero Lower BoundPresented by: Johannes Strobel, Goethe-University Frankfurt

SAVINGS AND INCOME RISKS

University Place - 3.213Chair: Raun Van Ooijen, University of Groningen

• Understanding the Saving Behavior of Chinese Households: Intergenerational Transfers and HousingPresented by: Lan Lan, University of Oslo

• Health Inequality: Role of Insurance and Technological ProgressPresented by: Siddhartha Sanghi, Washington University in St. Louis

• Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S.Presented by: Raun Van Ooijen, University of Groningen

SCHOOL AND HOME INPUTS IN LEARNING AND ACHIEVEMENT

University Place - 2.220Chair: Orazio Attanasio, University College London

• Does parental education influence child educational outcomes? A developmental analysis in a genetically-informative full population sample and adoptee designPresented by: Miriam Gensowski, University of Copenhagen

• Time investments as a driving channel for the effect of parentalseparation on child developmenPresented by: Hélène Le Forner, Paris School of Economics

• Pre-school quality and child development in a low income settingPresented by: Orazio Attanasio, University College London

MONDAY

MONDAY

TAX AND TRANSFERS

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Lucie Gadenne, University of Warwick

• Income tax and the careers of womenPresented by: Barra Roantree, Economic and Social Research Institute

• When Income Effects are Large: Labor Supply Responses and the Value of Welfare TransfersPresented by: Giulia Giupponi, London School of Economics

• Are consumption taxes progressive in developing countries? Evidence from consumption diariesPresented by: Lucie Gadenne, University of Warwick

TAXES, REGULATION AND INEQUALITY

University Place - 4.205Chair: Ctirad Slavik, CERGE-EI

• Wealth Taxes and InequalityPresented by: Nicola Borri, LUISS University

• Labor tax reductions in Europe: the role of property taxationPresented by: Marcin Bielecki, Narodowy Bank Polski and University of Warsaw

• Financial Liberalization and Income Inequality: On the Heterogenous Effects of Different ReformsPresented by: Ctirad Slavik, CERGE-EI

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND GREEN GROWTH

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Eugenie Dugoua, LSE

• Renewable Technology Adoption and the MacroeconomyPresented by: Bernardino Adão, Banco de Portugal

• Endogenous improvements of the substitutability between “clean” and “dirty” inputsPresented by: Fabian Stöckl, TU Berlin & DIW Berlin

• International Environmental Agreements and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the Ozone RegimePresented by: Eugenie Dugoua, LSE

THE ECONOMICS OF IMMIGRATION AND OUTMIGRATION

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: Anne Sofie Knudsen, Lund University

• Integration Through Participation: The Effect of Non-Citizen Voting RightsPresented by: Salwan Saif, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg

• Moving towards a better future? Migration and children’s health and educationPresented by: Lara Cockx, University of Leuven

• Emigration and Individualism: Cultural Change during the Age of Mass MigrationPresented by: Anne Sofie Knudsen, Lund University

ES SESSIONS

ADVANCES IN ESTIMATION METHODS

University Place - 3.212Chair: Hayato Nakanishi, Kanagawa University

• Gaussian rank correlation and regressionPresented by: Dante Amengual, CEMFI

• Improved Estimation by Simulated Maximum LikelihoodPresented by: Kirill Evdokimov, MIT

• Estimation of exchangeable distribution when the highest or lowest and another order statistics are observable: Application to first-price auctionsPresented by: Hayato Nakanishi, Kanagawa University

BANKING: EMPIRICS

University Place - 2.218Chair: Maria Chiara Iannino, University of St. Andrews

• Holding Company Affiliation and Risk: Evidence from the US Banking SectorPresented by: Radoslav Raykov, Bank of Canada

• What Drives Repo Haircuts? Evidence from the UK MarketPresented by: Karamfil Todorov, The London School of Economics (LSE)

• Did the Basel Process of Capital Regulation Enhance the Resiliency of European Banks?Presented by: Maria Chiara Iannino, University of St. Andrews

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BELIEFS AND KNOWLEDGE

University Place - 4.214Chair: Patrick Schmidt, HITS

• Common Knowledge for Rational and Behavioral AgentsPresented by: James Taylor, Australian National University

• Rational Bubbles and MiddlemenPresented by: Kohei Iwasaki, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• Elicitation of ambiguous beliefs with mixing betsPresented by: Patrick Schmidt, HITS

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS I

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Peiyao Shen, ShanghaiTech University

• Green Consumers, Emission Taxes, and Firm RelocationPresented by: Jan Voßwinkel, NGU | Nuertingen-Geislingen University

• The Impact of Weather on Commodity Prices: A Warning for the FuturePresented by: Annalisa Marini, University of Exeter

• Does ‘Green’ Matter? Environmental Management and Firm Performance in ChinaPresented by: Peiyao Shen, ShanghaiTech University

CONTRACT THEORY I

University Place - 1.218Chair: Lars Stole, University of Chicago

• Optimal Delegated ContractingPresented by: Lucy White, Questrom School of Management, Boston Un

• Sustainable Intergenerational InsurancePresented by: Tim Worrall, University of Edinburgh

• Participation constraints in discontinuous adverse selection modelsPresented by: Lars Stole, University of Chicago

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM AND MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS

University Place - 4.204Chair: Peter Hammond, University of Warwick

• Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions to the Stochastic Bellman Equation with Unbounded ShockPresented by: Juan Pablo Rincón-Zapatero, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

• Existence of equilibrium in an economy with two distortions: Monopolistic competition and taxationPresented by: Leslie Reinhorn, University of Durham

• Individual Risk and Mutual Insurance with Diverse Symmetric Beliefs and ProductionPresented by: Peter Hammond, University of Warwick

HOUSEHOLD LABOUR SUPPLY AND RETIREMENT

University Place - 4.212Chair: Sena Coskun, University of Mannheim

• Occupational Retirement and Social Security Reform: the Roles of Physical and Cognitive HealthPresented by: Jiayi Wen, Xiamen University

• Time to care? The effects of retirement on informal care provisionPresented by: Kai-Uwe Mueller, DIW Berlin

• Trends in Work and Leisure: Presented by: Sena Coskun, University of Mannheim

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF STRUCTURAL MODELS I

University Place - 3.205Chair: Jamie Hentall MacCuish, University College London

• Sensitivity of Structural Estimators to First-Step Calibrated ParametersPresented by: Thomas Jørgensen, University of Copenhagen

• On the sources of information in the moment structure of dynamic macroeconomic modelsPresented by: Nikolay Iskrev, Bank of Portugal

• Rational Inattention and Oversensitivity of Retirement to the State Pension AgePresented by: Jamie Hentall MacCuish, University College London

LEARNING AND EXPERIMENTATION I

University Place - 4.206Chair: Daniel Bird, Tel-Aviv Universtiy

MONDAY

MONDAY

• A Revision Game of Experimentation on a Common ThresholdPresented by: Yi Chen, Cornell University

• Reputation and Social LearningPresented by: Georgy Lukyanov, École polytechnique

• Sequential LearningPresented by: Daniel Bird, Tel-Aviv Universtiy

MONETARY POLICY AND FORWARD GUIDANCE

University Place - 3.214Chair: Arunima Sinha, Fordham University

• Forward Guidance (Puzzle) with rule-of-thumb householdsPresented by: Sebastian Giesen, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Disentangling the Information and Forward Guidance Effect of Monetary Policy AnnouncementsPresented by: Lars Other, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena

• Pitfalls of Lower for Longer: Monetary Policy Strategies at the Effective Lower BoundPresented by: Arunima Sinha, Fordham University

MACRO-FINANCE I: REAL AND FINANCIAL SHOCKS

University Place - 3.210Chair: Svetlana Bryzgalova, London Business School

• The Leased Capital PremiumPresented by: Chi-Yang Tsou, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

• Macroeconomic shocks and risk premia: Fama meets SimsPresented by: Gabor Pinter, Bank of England

• Consumption in Asset ReturnsPresented by: Svetlana Bryzgalova, London Business School

OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICIES

University Place - 4.210Chair: Zhiqi Zhao, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

• Consistent Flexibility: Enforcement of Fiscal Rules Through Political IncentivesPresented by: Valerio Dotti, Washington University is St. Louis

• Liberal-Libertarian Optimal Tax PolicyPresented by: Eduardo Zambrano, Cal Poly

• The Insurance Value of Progressive Taxation with Heterogenous Risk AversionPresented by: Zhiqi Zhao, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

18:00 to 19:15EEA Schumpeter Lecture

University Place – Theatre B

HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS AND CREDIT CYCLES

Presenter: Veronica Guerrieri, University of ChicagoChair: Kjetil Storesletten, University of Oslo

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TUESDAY 27TH AUGUST 2019

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

09:00 to 16:00Poster Session

University Place - The Drum

• Attentional Role of Quota ImplementationPresented by: Sergei Mikhalishchev, CERGE-EI

• Social Pension and Labor Supply Responses: Evidence from the New Rural Social Pension in ChinaPresented by: Yingying Zhang, Lancaster University

• Economic Rewards versus Economic Sanctions in International RelationsPresented by: Boris Brekhov,

• The Heterogeneous Effect of Retirement on Informal Care BehaviorPresented by: Julien Bergeot, Université de Cergy Pontoise

• Monetary Policy, Excess Reserves and Credit Supply: Old-style vs New-Style Central BankingPresented by: Mauricio Salgado Moreno, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

• Quantify the Quantitative Easing: Impact on Bonds and Corporate Debt IssuancePresented by: Karamfil Todorov, The London School of Economics (LSE)

09:00 to 10:15 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 3

EEA SESSIONS

BANKS AND SOVEREIGN DEBT

University Place - 4.209Chair: Fridrik Baldursson, Reykjavik University, School of Business

• Supply or demand? Firms’ access to finance during the European sovereign debt crisisPresented by: Donata Faccia, European Central Bank and Trinity College Dublin

• Banks’ holdings of risky sovereign bonds in the absence of the nexus – yield seeking with central bank funding or de-risking?Presented by: Rainer Frey, Deutsche Bundesbank

• The Political Economy of Capital Controls: The Case of IcelandPresented by: Fridrik Baldursson, Reykjavik University, School of Business

BEHAVIOURAL DECISION MAKING

University Place - 3.213Chair: Adrian Bruhin, University of Lausanne

• Source-Dependent PreferencesPresented by: Julian Hackinger, Technical University of Munich

• When Pledges Meet Meaning – A Crowdfunding StoryPresented by: Jonathan Bezalel,

• Risk and Rationality: The Relative Importance of Probability Weighting and Choice Set DependencePresented by: Adrian Bruhin, University of Lausanne

BUSINESS CYCLES AND INCOMPLETE MARKETS

University Place - 2.220Chair: Wei Cui, University College London

• Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier in Economy with Heterogeneous HouseholdsPresented by: Pawel Kopiec, National Bank of Poland

• Job Risk, Separation Shocks and Household Asset AllocationPresented by: Kieran Larkin, UCL

• Quantitative EasingPresented by: Wei Cui, University College London

CLIMATE CHANGE - DISCOUNTING AND CARBON BUDGETS

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Peter Hammond, University of Warwick

• Global Unanimity Agreement on the Carbon BudgetPresented by: Humberto Llavador, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

• Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin preferencesPresented by: Stan Olijslagers, University of Amsterdam

• Should We Discount the Welfare of Future Generations? Ramsey and Suppes versus Koopmans and ArrowPresented by: Peter Hammond, University of Warwick

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FINANCING ENTREPRENEURS

University Place - 4.205Chair: Pierluca Pannella, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

• Can Private Equity Funds Act as Strategic Buyers? Evidence from Buy-and-Build StrategiesPresented by: Vadym Volosovych, Erasmus University Rotterdam

• Bank Funding and the Survival of StartupsPresented by: Luisa Farinha,

• The housing boom and selection into entrepreneurshipPresented by: Pierluca Pannella, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

FIRM DYNAMICS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

University Place - 4.213Chair: Gian Luca Clementi, New York University

• The Real Effects of Zombie Lending in EuropePresented by: Belinda Tracey, Bank of England

• Cyclical Behavior of Markups: Theory and Firm-level EvidencePresented by: Angela Capolongo, Université Libre de Bruxelles

• Firm Demographics and the Great RecessionPresented by: Gian Luca Clementi, New York University

GENDER WAGE DIFFERENTIALS

University Place - 1.219Chair: Andrea Moro, Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia and Vanderbilt University

• PAY AND JOB RANK AMONGST ACADEMIC ECONOMISTS IN THE UK: IS GENDER RELEVANT?Presented by: Karen Mumford, University of York

• Gender Earnings Gaps among Hollywood StarsPresented by: Sofia Izquierdo Sanchez, University of Huddersfield

• Testing for Asymmetric Employer Learning and Statistical DiscriminationPresented by: Andrea Moro, Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia and Vanderbilt University

HOUSING AND MORTGAGES

University Place - 2.217Chair: Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board

• Income Inequality, Mortgage Debt and House PricesPresented by: Sevim Kosem, London School of Economics

• Mortgage Defaults, Bank Runs, and Regulation in a Housing EconomyPresented by: Marcus Ingholt, University of Copenhagen

• Mortgage Rates and Credit Risk: Evidence from Mortgage PoolsPresented by: Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND AND INFLATION DYNAMICS

University Place - 2.219Chair: Damjan Pfajfar, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

• Inflation news and euro area inflation expectationsPresented by: Sebastian Werner, Zeitfenster Economics Consultancy

• Learning Under Multiple Public Information SetsPresented by: Manuel Mosquera-Tarrio, University of Manchester

• Inflation and Deflationary Bias in Inflation ExpectationsPresented by: Damjan Pfajfar, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

INTERNALITIES

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: Andreas Gerster, University of Mannheim

• Can Sin Taxes Help Consumers with Low Self-Control? Evidence from Danish Soft Drink Tax ReformsPresented by: Renke Schmacker, DIW Berlin

• Inattention and the Taxation BiasPresented by: Jeremy Boccanfuso, Paris school of Economics

• Correct Me if You Can - Optimal Non-Linear Taxation of InternalitiesPresented by: Andreas Gerster, University of Mannheim

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

IO IN FINANCE

University Place - 3.211Chair: Michael Hellwig, ZEW Mannheim

• Central Counterparty Capitalization and Misaligned IncentivesPresented by: Wenqian Huang,

• Two-sided Market, R&D and Payments System EvolutionPresented by: Zhu Wang, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

• Agony of Choice – Trading off Stability and Competition in the Banking MarketsPresented by: Michael Hellwig, ZEW Mannheim

LOCAL PUBLIC FINANCE I

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Greg Howard, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

• The real effects of land use regulation: quasi-experimental evidence from a discontinuous policy variationPresented by: Marco Fregoni, University of Milan

• Property Tax Capitalization: Quasi-Experimental EvidencePresented by: Tuukka Saarimaa, Aalto University

• Closing Time: The Local Amenity Effects of ProhibitionPresented by: Greg Howard, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

MECHANISM DESIGN AND I1PLEMENTATION

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Jon Eguia, Michigan State University

• Strategically Simple MechanismsPresented by: Tilman Borgers, University of Michigan

• Mechanism Design with Limited Commitment,Presented by: Vasiliki Skreta, UT Austin and University College London

• Implementation by Vote Buying MechanismsPresented by: Jon Eguia, Michigan State University

MEDIA AND POLITICS: THEORY

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Konstantin Sonin, University of Chicago

• The Newsroom Dilemma. Media Competition, Speed and the Quality of JournalismPresented by: Ayush Pant, University of Warwick

• News Platforms, Voter Manipulation, and Political OutcomesPresented by: Freek Van Gils, Tilburg University

• Media Freedom in the Shadow of a CoupPresented by: Konstantin Sonin, University of Chicago

MIGRATION

University Place - 4.211Chair: Bastien Alvarez, ENS Paris Saclay, University Paris Saclay

• Old sins cast long shadows: The Long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland on residential migrationPresented by: Peter Huber, Austrian Institute of Economic Research

• Immigration And The Fear Of Unemployment: Evidence From Individual Perceptions In ItalyPresented by: Eleonora Porreca, Bank of Italy

• Labour mobility and skill heterogeneity in EuropePresented by: Bastien Alvarez, ENS Paris Saclay, University Paris Saclay

REGULATION AND MERGERS

University Place - 3.209Chair: Flavio Toxvaerd, University of Cambridge

• Mergers after Deregulation: What about Price Effects in the Long-Distance Bus Industry in France?Presented by: Patrice Bougette, Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France

• Upstream mergers and downstream timing of technology adoptionPresented by: Alexis Larousse, CREST - Ecole Polytechnique

• REGULATORY COMPETITIONPresented by: Flavio Toxvaerd, University of Cambridge

SEARCH AND MATCHING IN LABOUR MARKETS

University Place - 3.204Chair: Sena Coskun, University of Mannheim

• Search Frictions and Wage DispersionPresented by: Yikai Wang, University of Oslo

36 37

• The Costs of MismatchPresented by: Richard Holt, University of Edinburgh

• Young, Educated, UnemployedPresented by: Sena Coskun, University of Mannheim

ES SESSIONS

BANKING: THEORY

University Place - 3.205Chair: Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank

• Market Discipline under Financial ContagionPresented by: Takeshi Nakata, Niigata University

• On Banking Regulation and LobbyingPresented by: Stylianos Papageorgiou, University of Cyprus

• Bank Risk Taking and Twin DefaultsPresented by: Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS II

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Holger Strulik, University of Goettingen

• Prices vs. Quantities with Multiple CountriesPresented by: Torben Mideksa, Uppsala University

• Regulatory Spillover and Climate Co-benefits: Evidence from the New Source Review LawsuitsPresented by: Yichen Christy Zhou, Clemson University

• Hyperbolic Discounting and the Time-Consistent Solution of Three Canonical Environmental ProblemsPresented by: Holger Strulik, University of Goettingen

CONTRIBUTIONS TO TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

University Place - 4.204Chair: FARSHID Vahid, Monash University

• When Simplicity Offers a Benefit, Not a Cost: Closed-Form Estimation of the GARCH(1,1) Model that Enhances the Efficiency of Quasi-Maximum LikelihooPresented by: Todd Prono, Federal Reserve Board

• On asymptotic risk of selecting models for possibly non-stationary time-seriesPresented by: Chor-yiu (CY) SIN, National Tsing Hua University

• Global temperatures and green house gases - A common features approachPresented by: FARSHID Vahid, Monash University

CORPORATE FINANCE

University Place - 3.210Chair: Serafeim Tsoukas, University of Glasgow

• The Impact of Derivative Disclosures on Managerial Opportunism: Evidence from Insider Trades and Stock Price Crash RiskPresented by: Guanming He, Durham University

• The role of the sovereign debt crisis and financial development in trade credit: Evidence from the euro areaPresented by: Serafeim Tsoukas, University of Glasgow

EFFICIENT MECHANISM DESIGN

University Place - 4.210Chair: Nuh Aygun Dalkiran, Bilkent University

• Strategy-proofness and Efficiency for Submodular and Supermodular preferences without Quasi-linearityPresented by: Hiroki Shinozaki, Osaka University

• Efficient Incentives in Social Networks: Gamification and the Coase TheoremPresented by: Thomas Daske, TUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich

• Behavioral Implementation under Incomplete InformationPresented by: Nuh Aygun Dalkiran, Bilkent University

INFO-METRICS FOR MODELLING AND INFERENCE

University Place - 4.206Chair: Alastair Hall, University of Manchester

• Information, Modeling and Inference: The Info-Metrics FrameworkPresented by: Amos Golan, American University and Santa Fe Institute

• Info-metric Methods for the Estimation of Models with Group-Specific Moment ConditionsPresented by: Alastair Hall, University of Manchester

• An Information-Theoretic Asset Pricing ModelPresented by: Christian Julliard, London School of Economics

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

INTEREST RATE DETERMINANTS

University Place - 3.212Chair: Indrajit Mitra, University of Michigan

• A shadow rate without a lower bound constraintPresented by: Rafael De Rezende, Bank of England

• Money Illusion and TIPS DemandPresented by: Abraham Lioui, EDHEC Business School

• A Labor Market-Based Theory of Interest RatesPresented by: Indrajit Mitra, University of Michigan

LEARNING AND EXPERIMENTATION II

University Place - 4.212Chair: Ryoji Sawa, University of Tsukuba

• Bandits in the LabPresented by: Johannes Hoelzemann, University of Toronto.

• Non-Bayesian Social Learning and the Spread of Misinformation in Networks Presented by: Sebastiano Della Lena, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

• A Stochastic Stability Analysis with Observation Errors in Normal Form GamesPresented by: Ryoji Sawa, University of Tsukuba

MACROECONOMICS: CULTURE, SOCIAL STATUS AND ASPIRATIONS  AND  INEQUALITY

University Place - 3.214Chair: Minchul Yum, University of Mannheim

• Inequality, Credit, and Crises: The Role of Culture Presented by: Oliver Schulz, University of Muenster

• The Effect of Aspirations on Inequality: Evidence from the German Reunification using Bayesian Growth Incidence CurvesPresented by: Edwin FOURRIER-NICOLAÏ, Aix-Marseille University

• Status Externalities and Low Birth Rates in KoreaPresented by: Minchul Yum, University of Mannheim

MISALLOCATION AND MICRO-DEVELOPMENT

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Michel Dummar Azulai, Institute for Fiscal Studies

• Reassessing the Privatization and Role of State-Owned Regional Banks in BrazilPresented by: Camila Campos, Insper

• Taxation and Supplier Networks: Evidence from IndiaPresented by: Lucie Gadenne, University of Warwick

• The Welfare Costs of Political Connections: Evidence from Brazilian Matching GrantsPresented by: Michel Dummar Azulai, Institute for Fiscal Studies

MONETARY POLICY: LONG RUN ISSUES

University Place - 4.214Chair: Jason Choi, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• The Misallocation Channel of Monetary PolicyPresented by: Timo Reinelt, University of Mannheim

• Managing GDP Tail RiskPresented by: Thibaut Duprey, Bank of Canada

• Optimal Monetary Policy Regime SwitchesPresented by: Jason Choi, University of Wisconsin-Madison

SOVEREIGN DEBT AND DEFAULT

University Place - 2.218Chair: Istvan Konya, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

• Sovereign Debt RestructuringsPresented by: Juan Sanchez, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

• The Duration of Sovereign DefaultPresented by: Jie Luo, Tsinghua University

• Interest premium and external position: a state dependent approachPresented by: Istvan Konya, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

10:45 to 12:45INVITED SESSIONS 1

EEA SESSIONS

ASPIRATIONS, SKILLS, AND POLICIES: WOMEN’S SUCCESS IN THE LABOUR MARKET

Kilburn Building - 1.1Chair: Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Goethe University Frankfurt

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• The “End of Men” and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor MarketPresented by: Matias Cortes, York University

• Gender Promotion Gaps: Career Aspirations and Early Workplace ExperiencesPresented by: Ghazala Azmat, Sciences Po

• Female Leadership and Gender Gap within Firms: Evidence from an Italian Board ReformPresented by: Andrea Weber, Central European University

HETEROGENEITY IN MACROECONOMICS

Simon Building - Theatre BChair: Benjamin Moll, Princeton University

• Shocks and Frictions in Business Cycles with Heterogeneous AgentsPresented by: Ralph Luetticke, University College London

• The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of RecessionsPresented by: Christina Patterson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Saving Behavior Across the Wealth DistributionPresented by: Benjamin Moll, Princeton University

CAPITAL INCOME AND TAXES

Simon Building - Theatre EChair: Rachel Griffith, IFS

• Quantifying the Effect of Market PowerPresented by: Jan Eeckhout, University College London and Barcelona

• Capitalists in the Twenty-First CenturyPresented by: Eric Zwick, University of Chicago

• Intertemporal Income Shifting and Taxing Owners of Closely Held BusinessesPresented by: Kate Smith, Institute for Fiscal Studies

SOCIAL INTERACTIONS IN POLITICAL ECONOMY

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: Noam Yuchtman,

• Homophily and the Formation of Online Social NetworksPresented by: Maria Petrova, New Economic School

• Technology Adoption and Access to Credit via Mobile PhonesPresented by: Andrea Tesei, Queen Mary

• What Motivates Protesters? Evidence from Right Wing Protests and CounterprotestsPresented by: Christopher Roth, Institute on Behavior and Inequality

ES SESSIONS

DECISIONS IN MARKETS AND ORGANIZATIONS

Simon Building - Theatre AChair: Rafael Repullo, CEMFI

• Resource Allocation across Fields: Proportionality, Demand Relativity, and BenchmarkingPresented by: Marco Ottaviani, Bocconi University

• Overconfidence and PrejudicePresented by: Botond Koszegi, Central European University

EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS

Simon Building - Theatre CChair: Claudio Michelacci, EIEF

• Preferences for Truth-TellingPresented by: Johannes Abeler, University of Oxford

• The Gig Economy and Productivity: Field Experiments at a Ride-Sharing PlatformPresented by: Yan Chen, University of Michigan

MICRO AND MACRO FORECASTING

University Place - Lecture Theatre AChair: Valentina Corradi, University of Surrey

• Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of SparsityPresented by: Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University

• Panel Data ForecastingPresented by: Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

13:00 to 14:00Communication, Expectations and

Monetary Policy University Place – Lecture Theatre A

(organised by the EEA and the ECB)

Chair: Marcel Fratzscher (DIW) Speakers: Luis de Guindos (ECB), Silvana Tenreyro (LSE and external member of the Bank of England’s MPC) and Ricardo Reis (LSE)

Communication can help make central banks transparent and thereby contribute to their accountability and to the management of expectations of economic agents. While these roles are generally important, they have become even more relevant in recent times, when central banks needed to explain the rationale and the workings of new policy tools, and when central banks used forward guidance, a tool that relies entirely on communication. This plenary panel session will bring together distinguished policy-makers and academics to discuss issues such as the role of central bank communication in shaping agents’ expectations, the effectiveness of forward guidance, and the future of monetary policy communication.

13:00 to 14:00Accounting for the Welfare of

Nations: Measuring Productivity and Well-being in the Long Run

University Place – 1.218(organised by The University of Manchester, Nuno Palma)

Chair: Nuno Palma, University of Manchester Speakers: Stephen Broadberry (University of Oxford), Nicholas Crafts (University of Warwick) and Guido Alfani (Bocconi University, Milan)

While most economists are aware of Angus Maddison’s contribution to measuring and analysing economic growth and development, it was often based on informed conjectures at best. But in the last decade, economic historians have made much progress in measuring economic growth (and inequality) over the centuries. As a consequence, we now have a much clearer picture of the process of economic growth in the long run. This plenary panel session will bring together some of the main protagonists of this recent work, to discuss what we have been learning and where this research program is now moving.

14:15 to 16:00CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 4

EEA SESSIONS

BANKS’ CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND REGULATION

University Place - 3.204Chair: Andreas Barth, Goethe University Frankfurt / SAFE

• Games of Regulatory Competition in Banking: A General Equilibrium ApproachPresented by: Stylianos Papageorgiou, University of Cyprus

• Bank capital and liquidity transformationPresented by: Quynh-Anh Vo, Bank of England

• Mind the Conversion Risk: a Theoretical Assessment of Contingent Convertible BondsPresented by: Gaëtan Le Quang,

• Bank Competition for Wholesale Funding: Evidence from Corporate DepositsPresented by: Andreas Barth, Goethe University Frankfurt / SAFE

CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE

University Place - 2.220Chair: Nauro Campos, Brunel University London

• Highways to Hell are Paved with Good Intentions: Road Building and Violence in IraqPresented by: Tamar Gomez, Imperial College

• A firm level perspective on the trade effects of terrorist attacksPresented by: Alessia Lo Turco, Università Politecnica delle Marche

• The role of conflict in sex discrimination: The case of missing girlsPresented by: Anna Minasyan, University of Groningen

• Bringing Peace from Above: State Capacity, Civil War De-Escalation and The Composition of the Stock of Military EquipmentPresented by: Nauro Campos, Brunel University London

CENTRAL BANK ASSET PURCHASES

Kilburn Building - 1.5Chair: Bernd Schwaab, European Central Bank

• Quantify the Quantitative Easing: Impact on Bonds and Corporate Debt IssuancePresented by: Karamfil Todorov, LSE (London School of Economics and Political Science)

40 41

• Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?Presented by: Adam Elbourne, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

• Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro AreaPresented by: Benoit Nguyen, Banque de France

• Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resortPresented by: Bernd Schwaab, European Central Bank

COMMUNICATION AND PRIVATE INFORMATION

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Leandro Gorno, FGV EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças

• Optimal Reputation DynamicsPresented by: Julia Salmi, Aalto University

• Eliciting information efficiently from minds and machinesPresented by: Michael Mandler, University of London Royal Holloway Coll

• Communication and Commitment with Constraints: An Application to International AlliancesPresented by: Raghul Venkatesh, Aix-Marseille University

• Competitive Real Options under Private InformationPresented by: Leandro Gorno, FGV EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças

CORRUPTION AND THE RISE OF EXTREMISM

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: Carlos Sanz, Bank of Spain

• EXTREMISM AND CORRUPTIONPresented by: Antonio Nicolo, University of Padova, Italy

• Direct Democracy and Political ExtremismPresented by: Nicolas Schreiner, University of Basel

• Crony capitalism as an Electoral OutcomePresented by: Dmitriy Veselov, Higher School of Economics

• Economic hardship, political corruption, and the emergence of challenger parties: Evidence from the Great Recession in SpainPresented by: Carlos Sanz, Bank of Spain

CREDIT INTERMEDIATION AND CRISES

University Place - 3.209Chair: Arzu Uluc, Bank of England

• Wealth and Financial Crises: The Collateral ChannelPresented by: Zehao Liu, Renmin University of China

• Did bank lending stifle innovation in Europe during the Great Recession?Presented by: Davide Romelli, Trinity College Dublin

• Credit risk in commercial real estate bank loans: the role of idiosyncratic versus macro-economic factorsPresented by: DIMITRIOS MOKAS, De Nederlandsche Bank

• Did Pre-crisis Residential Mortgage Lending Limit Post-crisis Corporate Lending? Evidence from UK Bank Balance Sheets Presented by: Arzu Uluc, Bank of England

EIB SESSION ON INVESTMENT

University Place - 3.211Chair: Christoph Weiss, European Investment Bank

• When good managers face bad incentives: Management quality and energy intensity in the presence of price distortionsPresented by: Helena Schweiger, EBRD

• Do IFIs make a difference? The impact of EIB lending support to SMEs in Central and Eastern Europe during the global financial crisisPresented by: Aron Gereben, European Investment Bank

• The Bang for the Buck of R&D Tax CreditsPresented by: Matej Bajgar, OECD

• Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics and Managerial DecisionsPresented by: Christoph Weiss, European Investment Bank

EXPERIMENTS ON MORALITY

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: Nadine Chlass, University of Jena

• Normative Perception of Power AbusePresented by: Wladislaw Mill, University of Mannheim

• The (In)Elasticity of Moral IgnorancePresented by: Nora Szech, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

• A theoretical and experimental examination of perceived expertise and dishonestyPresented by: Miguel Fonseca, University of Exeter

• Preferences for fair competitionPresented by: Nadine Chlass, University of Jena

FISCAL POLICY

Jean McFarlane - G306 aChair: Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, Istanbul Bilgi University

• Optimal Capital Taxation with Incomplete Markets and Schumpeterian GrowthPresented by: Marco Cozzi, University of Victoria

• Dynamic fiscal limits and monetary-fiscal policy interactionsPresented by: Luca Zavalloni, Central Bank of Ireland

• Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Beyond Lucas-StokeyPresented by: Ricardo Nunes, University of Surrey

• Technology Capital and the Taxation of Multinational CorporationsPresented by: Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, Istanbul Bilgi University

GENDER

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Max Brüning, Maastricht University

• The impact of temperature shocks on conception ratesPresented by: Tamas Hajdu, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

• Social Norms and the Gender Gap in Expected Labor Market Participation during ParenthoodPresented by: Elisabeth Grewenig,

• Mind the absent gap: Gender-specific competitiveness in non-professional sports Presented by: Alexander Straub, Leibniz Universität Hannover

• Trading off different life domains? An analysis of the individual returns to migrationPresented by: Max Brüning, Maastricht University

HEALTH DETERMINANTS

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Alexandre GODZINSKI, French Ministry of Environment-CREST

• Medical Marijuana Laws and Mental Health in the United StatesPresented by: Jörg Kalbfuss, University of Cambridge

• Alcohol availability and alcohol-attributable mortality: Evidence from administrative dataPresented by: Relika Stoppel, University of Potsdam

• Vaccines at WorkPresented by: Adrian Chadi, University of Konstanz

• Short-term health effects of public transport perturbations: air pollution and viral spread channelsPresented by: Alexandre GODZINSKI, French Ministry of Environment-CREST

INTERNATIONAL PRICES

University Place - 4.205Chair: Bernhard Mahlberg, Institute for Industrial Research

• Long Run Price or Variety Convergence?Presented by: Leandro Zipitria, FCS - UdelaR

• Anticipation, Habits, and Dynamic Welfare Gains from TradePresented by: Povilas Lastauskas, CEFER

• Price Discrimination in International Trade: Empirical Evidence and TheoryPresented by: Sergii Meleshchuk, IMF

• Analysing Price Competitiveness in the European Single Market: A Decomposition of Inflation Differentials based on Leontief Input-Output Price modelsPresented by: Bernhard Mahlberg, Institute for Industrial Research

INTERNATIONAL SHOCK TRANSMISSION

University Place - 4.209Chair: Matteo Cacciatore, HEC Montreal

• Distance(s) and the Volatility of International Trade(s)Presented by: Cedric Tille, Graduate Institute of International and

• China’s macroeconomic policies and spillover effectsPresented by: Julia Niemeläinen,

• Monetary and Macroprudential Interactions in Closed and Open EconomyPresented by: Marzio Bassanin, Bank of England and LUISS Guido Carli

42 43

• Trade Flows and Fiscal MultipliersPresented by: Matteo Cacciatore, HEC Montreal

MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CYCLES

Jean McFarlane - 2.323Chair: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board

• Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal PolicyPresented by: Beau Soederhuizen, Netherlands bureau for economic policy analysis

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CYCLES SINCE 1880Presented by: Galina Potjagailo, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

• Macro-Financial Interactions in a Changing WorldPresented by: Eddie Gerba, Danmarks Nationalbank and London School of Economics

• Uncertainty and Financial Stability: a VAR analysisPresented by: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board

MINIMUM WAGES AND LOW PAY

University Place - 3.213Chair: Patrick Burauel, DIW Berlin

• The Impact of Minimum Wages on Wages and Employment: Evidence from GreecePresented by: Andreas Georgiadis, Brunel University

• Minimum Wages, Employment And Prices – A Case Study Of The Hairdressing IndustryPresented by: Max Kunaschk, Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

• Minimum Wages and Automation - an Empirical Analysis for GermanyPresented by: Kristina Zapp, ZEW Mannheim

• The German Minimum Wage and Wage Growth: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Causal ForestsPresented by: Patrick Burauel, DIW Berlin

MODELLING MONETARY POLICY

Kilburn Building - 1.3Chair: Gee Hee Hong, IMF

• Taylor Rule Estimation by OLSPresented by: Tiago Tristao, Genial Investimentos

• Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction PoolsPresented by: Szabolcs Deák, University of Surrey

• Sticky prices and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A minimal test of New Keynesian models Presented by: Timo Haber, University of Cambridge

• From Micro to Macro: A New Methodology to Discriminate Among ModelsPresented by: Gee Hee Hong, IMF

MONETARY POLICY AND HOUSING

Kilburn Building - 1.4Chair: Fergus Cumming, Bank of England

• Monetary policy transmission to mortgages in a negative interest rate environmentPresented by: Dimitris Georgarakos, ECB

• Monetary Policy Normalisation and Mortgage Arrears in a Recovering Economy - The case of the Irish Residential MarketPresented by: Rachel Slaymaker, Economic and Social Research Institute

• Multi-period loans, occasionally binding constraints and monetary policy: a quantitative evaluationPresented by: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Narodowy Bank Polski

• The Role of Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary PolicyPresented by: Fergus Cumming, Bank of England

PRIVATE-PUBLIC SECTOR INTERACTIONS

Jean McFarlane - 2.329Chair: Subrata Ritadhi, Reserve Bank of India

• Enforcing Public-Private Partnership Contract: How do Fiscal Institutions Matter?Presented by: Manabu Nose, The University of Tokyo

• Can Entry Mitigate the Effect of Inflated Reserve Prices in Public Procurement?Presented by: Vitalijs Jascisens, National Research University Higher School of Economics

• The Poverty Impact of Informal Sector PoliciesPresented by: Elias Steiner, University of Lucerne

• Cash Supply Shock, Formalization and Economic Development -- Evidence from India’s Demonetization EpisodePresented by: Subrata Ritadhi, Reserve Bank of India

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

RETIREMENT

University Place - 2.217Chair: Rebecca Schrader, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg

• Schooling Responses To Social Pension: The Evidence From Thailand Old Age Allowance ProgramPresented by: Patima Chongcharoentanawat, Maastricht University

• Couples’ and Singles’ Savings After RetirementPresented by: Rory McGee, University College London/IFS

• Belief Updating and Information Provision: Evidence from Pension ReformsPresented by: Ben Etheridge, University of Essex

• Labor market effects of early retirement reformsPresented by: Rebecca Schrader, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg

RETURNS TO SCHOOL INPUTS AND POLICIES

University Place - 2.219Chair: Johanna Kemper, KOF Swiss Economic Institute

• The Long-Term Effects of Long Terms. Compulsory Schooling Reforms in SwedenPresented by: Therese Nilsson, Lund university and the Research Institu

• Labor market returns to vocational secondary educationPresented by: Hanna Virtanen, Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos (ETLA)

• Higher Education and Financial Behavior - The effect of studying mathematics and economics on debt behaviorPresented by: Kristoffer Hvidberg, University of Copenhagen

• Evaluating the Impact of General Versus Vocational Education on Labor Market Outcomes in Egypt by Means of a Regression Discontinuity DesignPresented by: Johanna Kemper, KOF Swiss Economic Institute

SOVEREIGN DEBT

University Place - 4.211Chair: Kerstin Bernoth, DIW

• Limited Participation and Local Currency Sovereign DebtPresented by: Kirill Shakhnov, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Fina

• Preferential Treatment in the Sovereign Debt Market: Evidence from Bond Mutual FundsPresented by: Nathan Converse, Federal Reserve Board

• Sovereign Bonds since WaterlooPresented by: Josefin Meyer, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

• Exchange Rates, Foreign Currency Exposure and Sovereign RiskPresented by: Kerstin Bernoth, DIW

TAX EVASION I

University Place - 4.213Chair: Kristina Strohmaier, University of Tübingen

• Tax Evasion on a Social NetworkPresented by: Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan

• Spatial Tax Enforcement Spillovers: Evidence from South AfricaPresented by: Nadine Riedel, Ruhr-Universität Bochum

• Decomposing the Declining Effective Tax Rates of Multinational CorporationsPresented by: Petr Janský, Charles University in Prague

• Combatting Tax Evasion: Evidence from Comparing Commercial and Business Tax RegistryPresented by: Kristina Strohmaier, University of Tübingen

TRADING FIRMS

University Place - 1.219Chair: Peter Neary, University of Oxford

• The Effects of Import Competition on Firms’ Environmental Efforts in a Developing Country ContextPresented by: Seda Koymen Ozer, Baskent University

• Preparing to ExportPresented by: Claudio Labanca, Monash University

• Trade Liberalization and Firm Investment: Evidence from ColombiaPresented by: Yannick Timmer, IMF

44 45

• IO for Export(s)Presented by: Peter Neary, University of Oxford

VALUATION, PREFERENCES AND CONSEQUENCES OF POLLUTION

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Sefi Roth, London School of Economics

• The causal effect of religious and environmental identity on green preferences: A combined priming and stated choice experimentPresented by: Daniel Engler, University of Kassel

• Fracking and Health-Related Absenteeism of EmployeesPresented by: Nicole Wägner, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

• Noise Pollution and ViolencePresented by: Timo Hener, Aarhus University

• Dirty Density: Air quality and the density of American citiesPresented by: Sefi Roth, London School of Economics

ES SESSIONS

ASSET PRICING ECONOMETRICS

University Place - 4.210Chair: Anthony Neuberger, City, University of London

• Discount Rates and Cash Flows: A Local Projection ApproachPresented by: Henri Nyberg, University of Turku

• Extracting Statistical Factors When Betas Are Time-VaryingPresented by: Hao Ma, Università della Svizzera italiana and Swiss Finance Institute

• Regularising the Factor Zoo with OWL: A Correlation-Robust Machine Learning ApproachPresented by: Chuanping Sun, Queen Mary, University of London

• Dispersion of Asset Prices – an Axiomatic DefinitionPresented by: Anthony Neuberger, City, University of London

COMMUNICATION

University Place - 2.218Chair: Philippe Colo, PSE

• Strategic InterpretationsPresented by: Heidi Thysen, LSE

• Prudence in PersuasionPresented by: Shintaro Miura, Kanagawa University

• Strategic transmission of imperfect information: Why revealing facts (without proof) is difficultPresented by: Manuel Foerster, University of Hamburg

• What’s the Science? Communication under Model UncertaintyPresented by: Philippe Colo, PSE

ECONOMETRICS OF MACRO MODELS

University Place - 4.212Chair: Lisha Li, University of York

• Measuring Biases in Expectation FormationPresented by: Simas Kucinskas, University of Amsterdam

• Estimation and Inference in Adaptive Learning Models with Slowly Decreasing GainsPresented by: Alexander Mayer, WHU -- Otto von Beisheim School of Management

• Affine Term Structure Models with Stochastic Lower Bound:\\ An Application to Euro-Area OIS RatesPresented by: Jean-Paul RENNE, University of Lausanne

• Evaluating the Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Purchase Programs: A Shadow Rate Term Structure Model ApproachPresented by: Lisha Li, University of York

ECONOMICS OF NETWORKS

University Place - 1.218Chair: Francis Bloch, Universite Paris I

• A Network Approach to WelfarePresented by: Nizar Allouch, University of Kent

• Targeting in Networks with Anonymized InformationPresented by: Francis Bloch, Universite Paris I

• Capability Accumulation and Conglomeratization in the Information AgePresented by: Matthew Elliott, University of Cambridge

• The Myopic Stable Set for Social EnvironmentsPresented by: Jean-Jacques Herings, Maastricht University

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING

University Place - 4.214Chair: Alberto Quaini, University of Geneva

• Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Option ReturnsPresented by: Shuwen Yang, Alliance Manchester Business School

• Does index arbitrage distort market reaction to oil shocks?Presented by: Veronika Selezneva, CERGE-EI

• The Cross-Sectional Distribution of Fund Skill MeasuresPresented by: Oliver Scaillet, University of Geneve and Swiss Finance Institute

• Smart SDFsPresented by: Alberto Quaini, University of Geneva

GAINS FROM TRADE WITH INSTITUTIONAL AND MARKET FRICTIONS

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Jose Asturias, Georgetown University Qatar

• Financial Development and Trade LiberalizationPresented by: Michal Szkup, University of British Columbia

• Endogenous Transportation CostsPresented by: Jose Asturias, Georgetown University Qatar

HIGH-DIMENSIONAL ECONOMETRICS

University Place - 4.204Chair: Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Synthetic Difference In DifferencesPresented by: Guido Imbens, Stanford University

• The Role of the Propensity Score in Fixed Effect ModelsPresented by: Dmitry Arkhangelsky, CEMFI

• Jackknife, small bandwidth and high-dimensional asymptoticsPresented by: Taisuke Otsu, London School of Economics

• Learning L2-Continuous Regression Functionals via Regularized Riesz RepresentersPresented by: Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

HISTORY AND HOUSEHOLD

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Yannick Dupraz, University of Warwick

• Son Preference among Migrants in Canada: Sex-Selective Abortions, Stopping Behaviour and Birth SpacingPresented by: Marie-Claire Robitaille, Saint Mary’s University

• Till debt do us part: strategic divorces and a test of moral hazardPresented by: Yeorim Kim, VU Amsterdam/ DNB / Tinbergen Institute

• Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor SystemPresented by: Mikhail Poyker, Columbia University

• Fatherless: The Long-Term Effects of Losing a Father in the U.S. Civil WarPresented by: Yannick Dupraz, University of Warwick

HOUSING AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

University Place - 3.205Chair: Michael Siemer, Federal Reserve Board

• Understanding Housing Wealth Effects: Debt, Home Ownership and the LifecyclePresented by: Fabian Greimel, University of Mannheim

• What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income DivergencePresented by: Greg Howard, University of Illinois

• Multiple Credit Constraints and Time-Varying Macroeconomic DynamicsPresented by: Marcus Ingholt, University of Copenhagen

• The Real Effects of Credit Booms and BustsPresented by: Michael Siemer, Federal Reserve Board

MIGRATION AND THE LABOUR MARKET

University Place - 3.210Chair: Terje Skjerpen, Statistics Norway

• Taxation and Job Mobility in EuropePresented by: Davud Rostam-Afschar, Universitaet Hohenheim

• The Effects of High-Skilled Immigrants on Natives’ Degree Attainment and Occupational Choices: An Analysis with Labor Market EquilibriumPresented by: Murat Demirci, Koç University

46 47

• A search and matching approach to business-cycle migration in the euro areaPresented by: Janine Hart, Berlin School of Economics

• Search Behavior, Aggregate Rationality and the Discouraged Worker Effect Presented by: Terje Skjerpen, Statistics Norway

MONETARY POLICY AND ASSET MARKETS

University Place - 3.212Chair: Cesaire Meh, Bank of Canada

• Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price BubblesPresented by: Lucyna Gornicka, International Monetary Fund

• Interest Rates Under Falling StarsPresented by: Glenn Rudebusch, San Francisco Fed

• Limited Liability, Asset Price Bubbles and the Credit Cycle: The Role of Monetary PolicyPresented by: Michal Kejak, CERGE-EI

• Limited Nominal Indexation of Optimal Financial ContractsPresented by: Cesaire Meh, Bank of Canada

REPEATED GAMES OF COLLUSION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

University Place - 4.206Chair: Alon Eizenberg, Hebrew University Jerusalem

• Estimating Markups with a Flexible Supply ModelPresented by: Christopher Sullivan, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• Measuring the Incentive to Collude: The Vitamin Cartels, 1990-1999Presented by: Mitsuru Igami, Yale University

• Oligopolistic Price Leadership and Mergers: An Empirical Model of the U.S. Beer IndustryPresented by: Nathan Miller, Georgetown University

• Structure, Conduct, and Contact: Competition in Closely-Related MarketsPresented by: Alon Eizenberg, Hebrew University Jerusalem

THEORETICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY

University Place - 3.214Chair: Thanh Le, Flinders University

• Office-Holding Premia and Representative DemocracyPresented by: Jan Auerbach, University of Exeter

• Constitutions, Federalism, and National IntegrationPresented by: M. Socorro Puy, Universidad de Málaga

• Rotation, Performance Rewards, and Property RightsPresented by: Weijia Li, Monash University

• Lobbying, political competition and the welfare effect of campaign contribution taxPresented by: Thanh Le, Flinders University

16:30 to 17:45CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 6

EEA SESSIONS

CLIMATE CHANGE - RESPONSE TO CLIMATE SHOCKS

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Casper Hansen, University of Copenhagen

• Disaster risks, disaster strikes, and economic growth: the role of preferencesPresented by: Thomas Douenne, Paris School of Economics

• Climate change and bank lending: the case of flood risk in ItalyPresented by: Filippo Natoli, Bank of Italy

• Climate, Mortality, and Adaptation: A Century of Weakly Evidence from LondonPresented by: Casper Hansen, University of Copenhagen

ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EFFECTS OF REFUGEES’ INFLOWS

University Place - 3.211Chair: Kathleen Kürschner Rauck, Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg

• Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to GermanyPresented by: Julia Bredtmann, RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Res

• Refugee shelters, Neighbourhood Quality and Electoral Outcomes in GermanyPresented by: Jakob Hennig, Toulouse School of Economics

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

• The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in GermanyPresented by: Kathleen Kürschner Rauck, Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg

DETERMINANTS AND STABILITY OF PREFERENCES

University Place - 1.219Chair: Daniel Kamhöfer, University of Düsseldorf

• Linguistics and time preferences: Are intertemporal trade-offs shaped by language?Presented by: Holger Herz, University of Fribourg

• Emotions, Risk Attitudes, and PatiencePresented by: Armando Meier, University of Chicago

• Self-Control in a Representative Sample: Determinants and Life OutcomesPresented by: Daniel Kamhöfer, University of Düsseldorf

FISCAL MULTIPLIERS

University Place - 2.217Chair: Mehmet Turgut, Bocconi University

• Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: The Labor Share Response to Fiscal Spending ShocksPresented by: Cristiano Cantore, Bank of England

• Fiscal Multipliers and Sovereign RiskPresented by: Sara Restrepo, Universidad del Rosario

• Government Spending and Private Consumption: The Role of ConfidencePresented by: Mehmet Turgut, Bocconi University

GLOBAL BANKS

University Place - 3.204Chair: Michael O’Grady, Central Bank of Ireland

• Freeze! Financial sanctions and bank responsesPresented by: Stefan Goldbach, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Bank business models as a driver of cross-border activitiesPresented by: Michael O’Grady, Central Bank of Ireland

HUMAN CAPITAL, MISMATCH AND UNEMPLOYMENT

University Place - 2.220Chair: Simeon Alder, University of Wisconsin - Madison

• Occupation-industry mismatch in the cross-section and the aggregatePresented by: Saman Darougheh, IIES

• Unionizing Non-Search UnemploymentPresented by: Oskari Vähämaa, University of Turku

• The Allocation of Teaching Talent and Human Capital AccumulationPresented by: Simeon Alder, University of Wisconsin - Madison

INCENTIVES AND BIASES IN CORPORATE FINANCE

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Manisha Goel, Pomona College

• Plough, Gender Bias and the Misallocation of Trade CreditPresented by: Jiafu An, University of Edinburgh

• Does the eye of the master make the horse fat? Maintenance of collateral and asset care under purchase and leasing contractsPresented by: Anna Maria Menichini, Università di Salerno and CSEF

• Firms of a Feather Merge Together: Cultural Proximity and M&A OutcomesPresented by: Manisha Goel, Pomona College

INCOMPLETE INFORMATION AND SEARCH

University Place - 3.213Chair: Karl Schlag, University of Vienna

• Partially Directed Search for PricesPresented by: Eeva Mauring, University of Vienna

• Search in Markets with Uncertain Product AvailabilityPresented by: Atabek Atayev, University of Vienna

• Value of Information when Searching for a SecretaryPresented by: Karl Schlag, University of Vienna

INTERACTION OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY WITH MONETARY POLICY AND LIQUIDITY REGULATION

University Place - 4.205Chair: Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank

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• Macroeconomics of bank capital and liquidity regulationsPresented by: Frederic Boissay, Bank for International Settlements

• House price dynamics, optimal LTV limits and the liquidity trapPresented by: Richard Harrison, Bank of England

• Bank Capital in the Short and in the Long RunPresented by: Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank

INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY

University Place - 4.209Chair: Sumaiya Rahman, University of Surrey

• On the Origins of Socio-economic Inequalities: Evidence from a “Children of Twins” DesignPresented by: Paul Bingley, VIVE

• Growth, Inequality and Absolute Mobility in the United States, 1962-2014Presented by: Yonatan Berman, London Mathematical Laboratory

• Falling Absolute Intergenerational MobilityPresented by: Sumaiya Rahman, University of Surrey

LOCAL PUBLIC FINANCE II

University Place - 4.211Chair: Roberto Zotti, University of Torino

• The efficiency and distributive effects of local taxes: Evidence from Italian municipalitiesPresented by: Enrico Rubolino, University of Essex

• The Electoral Consequences of a Tax Reform under Partial DecentralizationPresented by: Catarina Alvarez, NOVA School of Business and Economics

• Multilevel taxation, competition, and sorting: Evidence from regional bordersPresented by: Roberto Zotti, University of Torino

MEDIA AND POLITICS: EVIDENCE

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Elliott Ash, ETH Zurich

• State-wide Fragmentation of Television Markets and Political Representation in the US CongressPresented by: Patrick Balles, University of Basel

• Media Bias and Elections --- An Experimental StudyPresented by: Junze Sun, University of Amsterdam

• Partisan Media and Fiscal Policy Choices: Evidence from Cable NewsPresented by: Elliott Ash, ETH Zurich

PHILLIPS CURVES

University Place - 2.219Chair: Mo Tian, University of Nottingham

• Is the Phillips curve broken? A view from firm-level data Presented by: Erik Frohm, Sveriges Riksbank

• Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary PolicyPresented by: Philipp Lieberknecht, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Price-setting behaviours during inflation slow-down periodPresented by: Mo Tian, University of Nottingham

PUBLIC POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENT

University Place - 4.213Chair: Damien de Walque, The World Bank

• Competition and Conflict: Evidence from a Community Driven Development Program in IndonesiaPresented by: Gregor Singer, London School of Economics

• Addressing Selection: Experimental Evidence from Design Variations in a Skills Training ProgramPresented by: Muhammad Farooq Naseer, Lahore University of Management Sciences

• Looking into the performance-based financing black box: Evidence from an impact evaluation in the health sector in CameroonPresented by: Damien de Walque, The World Bank

RULERS AND EMPIRES IN ECONOMIC HISTORY

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: Felix Ward, Erasmus University Rotterdam

• Childless Aristocrats. Inheritance and the extensive margin of fertility.Presented by: Marc Goñi, University of Vienna

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

• Jumping the gun: how dictators got ahead of their subjects.Presented by: Asger Wingender, University of Copenhagen

• The real effects of money supply shocks: Evidence from maritime disasters in the Spanish EmpirePresented by: Felix Ward, Erasmus University Rotterdam

TRADING INPUTS

University Place - 3.209Chair: Mehmet Ulu, Koc University

• What You Import Matters: Capital versus Intermediate GoodsPresented by: Hongsong Zhang, University of Hong Kong

• Exports, Imported Inputs, and Domestic Supply NetworksPresented by: Salih Fendoglu, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

• Imported Intermediate Goods and Product Innovation: Evidence from IndiaPresented by: Mehmet Ulu, Koc University

ES SESSIONS

ADVANCES IN MICROECONOMETRICS

University Place - 4.204Chair: Shruti Sinha, Toulouse School of Economics

• Have Econometric Analyses of Happiness Data Been Futile? A Simple Truth About Happiness ScalesPresented by: Sorawoot Srisuma, University of Surrey

• Analysing Subjective Well-Being Data with MisclassificationPresented by: Ekaterina Oparina, University of Surrey

• Identification and Estimation in Many-to-One Two-Sided Matching without TransfersPresented by: Shruti Sinha, Toulouse School of Economics

BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE

University Place - 4.212Chair: Dmitry Makarov, Higher School of Economics

• Alternative Facts in Peer-to-Peer Loans? Borrower Misreporting Dynamics and ImplicationsPresented by: Vesa Pursiainen, Imperial College London and University of Hong Kong

• Keynes Meets Merton: Examining Risk and Return Relation Based on FundamentalsPresented by: Liya Chu, East China University of Science and Technology

• Security design with status concernsPresented by: Dmitry Makarov, Higher School of Economics

BUSINESS CYCLES FLUCTUATIONS AND THE BEHAVIOUR OF FIRMS

University Place - 3.205Chair: Ia Vardishvili, University of Virginia

• What Happened to the U.S. Business Dynamism?Presented by: Sina Ates, Federal Reserve Board

• Producer Price Inflation Connectedness and Input-Output NetworksPresented by: Kamil Yilmaz, Koc University

• Entry decision, option value of delay and business cyclesPresented by: Ia Vardishvili, University of Virginia

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS, FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION, AND THE MACROEOCNOMY

University Place - 3.210Chair: Michael Kumhof, Bank of England

• Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade CreditPresented by: Lin Shao, Bank of Canada

• Risk and State-dependent Financial FrictionsPresented by: Martin Harding, DIW Berlin

• Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds - facts, theory and evidencePresented by: Michael Kumhof, Bank of England

GAMES WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

University Place - 3.212Chair: Alexandros Rigos, Lund University

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• Scalable games: modelling games of incomplete informationPresented by: Nora Wegner, Bank of England

• Can Auctions Maximize Welfare in Markets After the Auction?Presented by: Bernhard Kasberger, University of Oxford

• Signaling ExpertisePresented by: Alexandros Rigos, Lund University

HOUSEHOLD

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Pawan Gopalakrishnan, Reserve Bank of India

• Wages and Family Time AllocationsPresented by: Alexandros Theloudis, LISER Luxembourg and UCL Economics

• An Empirical Total Survey Error Decomposition Using Data CombinationPresented by: Nikolas Mittag, CERGE-EI

• Household Finance in Developing CountriesPresented by: Pawan Gopalakrishnan, Reserve Bank of India

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF STRUCTURAL MODELS II

University Place - 4.206Chair: Tom Holden, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Dynamic Deconvolution of Independent Autoregressive SourcesPresented by: Christian Gourieroux, University of Toronto and Toulouse S.E.

• Female Employment and Child CarePresented by: Lena Hassani Nezhad, Royal Holloway, University of London

• The relative prices of investment and capital.Presented by: Tom Holden, Deutsche Bundesbank

NETWORKS

University Place - 3.214Chair: Agathe Pernoud, Stanford University

• On the Existence of Perfect Pairwise Stable Weighted NetworksPresented by: Mariya Teteryatnikova, HSE

• The geopolitical impact of Nord Stream 2Presented by: László Kóczy, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

• What Makes Financial Markets Special? Systemic Risk and its Measurement in Financial NetworksPresented by: Agathe Pernoud, Stanford University

POLITICAL ECONOMY IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

University Place - 2.218Chair: Raphael Franck, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

• The effects of state capacity on local economic development: Evidence from the Urals in the aftermath of Pugachev’s 1773-1775 rebellionPresented by: Raphael Franck, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

• Franchise extension and redistribution: evidence from the United Kingdom 1820-1913Presented by: Toke Aidt, University of Cambridge

• Motivated Reasoning in the Field: Polarization of Prose, Precedent, and Policy in U.S. Circuit Courts, 1930-2013Presented by: Elliott Ash, ETH Zurich

PEER EFFECTS

University Place - 1.218Chair: Rafael Ribas, University of Amsterdam

• The Virtuous Cycle of AgreementPresented by: Philippos Louis, University of Cyprus

• Shifts in risk-behaviourPresented by: Pia Weiss, Nottingham University Business School

• Can Better Peers Signal Less Success? The Effect of Perceived Rank on Career InvestmentPresented by: Rafael Ribas, University of Amsterdam

QUANTILE MODELS

University Place - 4.210Chair: Galina Besstremyannaya, Centre for Economic and Financial Research at New Economic School

• Consistent Specification Test of the Quantile AutoregressionPresented by: Anthoulla Phella, University of Surrey

TUESDAY

TUESDAY

• Quantile co-movement in stock markets with production linkages of firms: A spatial panel quantile model with unobserved heterogeneityPresented by: Lina Lu, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

• Reconsideration of a simple approach to quantile regression for panel dataPresented by: Galina Besstremyannaya, Centre for Economic and Financial Research at New Economic School

SEARCH, MATCHING AND WAGE DETERMINATION

University Place - 4.214Chair: Rasmus Lentz, University of Wisconsin Madison

• A Job Ladder Model with Stochastic Employment OpportunitiesPresented by: Jake Bradley, University of Nottingham

• Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous-Time Job Search ModelsPresented by: Attila Gyetvai, Duke University

• On Worker and Firm Heterogeneity in Wages and Employment Mobility: Evidence from Danish Register DataPresented by: Rasmus Lentz, University of Wisconsin Madison

18:00 to 19:15ES PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

University Place – Theatre B

• Coordination and Incomplete InformationPresenter: Stephen Morris, Princeton UniversityChair: Tim Besley, London School of Economics

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WEDNESDAY 28TH AUGUST 2019

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

09:00 to 10:15LAFFONT LECTURE

University Place – Theatre B

• Games with Incomplete Information: From Repetition to Cheap Talk and PersuasionPresenter: Francoise Forges, Paris DauphineChair: Zvika Neeman, Tel Aviv University

10:45 to 12:45CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 6

EEA SESSIONS

ASSET PRICING AND RISK PREMIUM

University Place - 2.217Chair: Joseph Kopecky, Trinity College Dublin

• Jumps and the Correlation Risk Premium: Evidence from Equity OptionsPresented by: René Flacke, University of Muenster

• Learning and the Capital Age PremiumPresented by: Chi-Yang Tsou, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

• Hedging Labor Income Risk over the Life-CyclePresented by: Raffaele Corvino, Cass Business School

• Characteristics as a Signal Process: Capturing the Missing Risk PremiaPresented by: Huichou Huang, City University of Hong Kong

• Population Aging and the Risk PremiumPresented by: Joseph Kopecky, Trinity College Dublin

BIRTH OUTCOMES AND CHILD HEALTH

University Place - 2.219Chair: Martin Karlsson,

• Air pollution during pregnancy and birth outcomes in ItalyPresented by: Inna Petrunyk, Leuphana University

• (Growing) Up In Smoke? The Impact Of Prenatal And Postnatal Maternal Smoking On Child DevelopmentPresented by: Francesca Salvati, UCL

• Estimating the Effect of Criminal Victimisation on Birth Outcomes.Presented by: Livia Menezes, University of Leicester

• The Effect of Neonatal Intensive Care Units on Neonatal and Infant Mortality: Evidence from 45 Years of Establishing and Operating a National NetworkPresented by: Gabor Kertesi, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Scienc

• Infant Health, Cognitive Performance and Earnings: Evidence from Inception of the Welfare State in SwedenPresented by: Martin Karlsson,

CONSUMPTION AND HOUESHOLD BEHAVIOUR

University Place - 2.220Chair: Eve Colson-Sihra, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem eve.sihra@outlook.com

• The effect of information on market activity; evidence from vehicle recallsPresented by: Davide Cerruti, ETH Zurich

• Student Loans, Access to Credit and Consumer Financial BehaviorPresented by: Alvaro Mezza,

• Once or Twice a Month? The Impact of Payment Frequency on Consumption PatternsPresented by: Tuuli Paukkeri, VATT Institute for Economic Research

• Consumption Responses to Financial Liberalization: Evidence from Survey DataPresented by: Cristina Barcelo, Banco de España

• How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food ConsumptionPresented by: Eve Colson-Sihra, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

CULTURE, PERSISTANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Lingwei Wu, University of Bonn

• Class Differences and the Commercial RevolutionPresented by: Maurizio Iacopetta, OFCE Sciences Po and Skema Business School

• 450 Years of Portuguese Colonialism in India: Missionaries, Education, Gender GapsPresented by: Alexander Lehner, University of Bologna

• State History, Intergenerational Transmission and Institutional Trust in AfricaPresented by: Gian Luca Tedeschi, University of Nottingham

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• Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black FamilyPresented by: Arcangelo Dimico, Queen’s University Belfast

• The Economic Motives for Foot-bindingPresented by: Lingwei Wu, University of Bonn

EDUCATION, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN ECONOMIC HISTORY

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: Michel Serafinelli, University of Essex

• The Economic Origins of Modern Science: Technology, Institutions, and MarketsPresented by: Jeremiah Dittmar, London School of Economics

• Education and Enlightenment in FrancePresented by: Uwe Sunde, University of Munich (LMU)

• Social status, war, medical knowledge, and the timing of life expectancy improvements among Germanic scholars over the fifteenth to nineteenth centuries.Presented by: Robert Stelter, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

• Can autocracy promote literacy? evidence from a cultural alignment success storyPresented by: Nuno Palma, University of Manchester

• Creativity over Time and SpacePresented by: Michel Serafinelli, University of Essex

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS

Kilburn Building - 1.3Chair: Massimo Morelli, Bocconi University

• Political Statement CyclePresented by: Junichi Yamasaki, Kobe University

• One Strike and You’re Out: The Effects of the Master Lever on Senator’s PositionsPresented by: Olga Gorelkina, University of Liverpool

• Politics from the Bench? Ideology and Strategic Voting in the US Supreme CourtPresented by: Jörg Spenkuch, Northwestern University

• Moral Hazard in Electoral Teams and Gamson’s Law Within PartiesPresented by: Jon H. Fiva, Norwegian Business School (BI)

• Electoral Systems, Taxation and Immigration Policies Presented by: Massimo Morelli, Bocconi University

EMPLOYMENT CONTRACTS

University Place - 3.204Chair: Alexander Plum, Auckland University of Technology

• Labor Market Rigidities and Misallocation: Evidence from a Natural ExperimentPresented by: Dinara Alpysbayeva, KU Leuven

• Ex-Post Labor Market Sorting - the Role of Conditional CooperativenessPresented by: Michael Haylock, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen

• From Ultima Ratio to Mutual Consent: The Effects of Changing Employment Protection DoctrinePresented by: Cyprien Batut, Paris School of Economics

• Zero Hours Contracts and Their Growth: Five Questions and AnswersPresented by: egidio farina, Queen’s University Belfast

• When There Is No Way Up: Reconsidering Low-Paid Jobs As Stepping StonesPresented by: Alexander Plum, Auckland University of Technology

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND REGULATION II

Jean McFarlane - 2.329Chair: Stephan Sommer, RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

• A Multi-Sector Multi-Region Macroeconomic Model for GermanyPresented by: Christoph Schult, Halle Institute for Economic Research

• Lease Splitting and Dirty Entrants: The Unintended Deforestation Consequences of India’s Environmental Clearance Process ReformPresented by: Anca Balietti, Harvard University

• On self-interested preferences for sharing the costs of energy policy: A stated choice analysis for GermanyPresented by: Elke Groh, University of Kassel

• Water Quality, Policy Diffusion Effects and Farmers BehaviorPresented by: Eva Tène,

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• Local Cost for Global Benefit: The Case of Wind TurbinesPresented by: Stephan Sommer, RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

EXCHANGE RATES AND INTERNATIONAL SPILLOVERS

University Place - 3.209Chair: Ansgar Rannenberg, National Bank of Belgium

• Current Account Dynamics and Exchange Rate Regimes in Central and Eastern EuropePresented by: Karsten Staehr, Tallinn University of Technology

• Government Spending, Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, and Exchange Rate DynamicsPresented by: Francesco D’Ascanio,

• Balance Sheets, Currency Mismatch and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Open EconomiesPresented by: Pablo Anaya, Freie Universität Berlin, DIW Berlin

• International Spillovers and the Exchange Rate Channel of Monetary PolicyPresented by: Vito Cormun, Boston College

• Low pass-through and high spillovers in NOEM: what does help and what does notPresented by: Ansgar Rannenberg, National Bank of Belgium

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

University Place - 3.211Chair: Birgit Meyer, Vienna University of Economics and Business

• Offshoring and non-monotonic employment effects across industries in general equilibriumPresented by: Michael Irlacher, University of Linz

• Causal Evidence on the International Transmission of Crises Through Multinational FirmsPresented by: Marcus Biermann, London School of Economics

• The Structure of Multinational Sales under Demand RiskPresented by: Francesco Conteduca, Bank of Italy

• A Model of Heterogeneous Firm Matches in Cross-Border Mergers & AcquisitionsPresented by: Michiel Gerritse, Erasmus University Rotterdam

• Product Mix and Foreign Ownership: Evidence from India’s Investment LiberalizationPresented by: Birgit Meyer, Vienna University of Economics and Business

GROUPS, LEADERSHIP AND GENDER

University Place - 1.219Chair: Estefania Santacreu-Vasut, ESSEC Business School and THEMA

• The Strength of Weak Leaders - An Experiment on Social Influence and Social Learning in TeamsPresented by: Berno Buechel, University of Fribourg

• Delegation to a GroupPresented by: Moritz Janas, University of Konstanz

• Absence of Female Leaders: Do group dynamics play a role?Presented by: Duygu Ozdemir, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg

• Are Women Less Effective Leaders than Men? Presented by: Lea Heursen, Humboldt University of Berlin

• CEO Nomination and Gender Leadership Stereotypes: Evidence from Lab ExperimentsPresented by: Estefania Santacreu-Vasut, ESSEC Business School and THEMA

HEALTHCARE AND HEALTH

University Place - 3.213Chair: Erkan Gören, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg

• Correcting for Transitory Effects in RCTs: Application to the RAND Health Insurance ExperimentPresented by: Kevin Devereux, University College Dublin

• The Economics Behind the Epidemic: Afghan Opium Price and Prescription Opioids in the USPresented by: Roberto Nisticò, University of Naples Federico II

• When Should the Sun Shine? The Effect of the Time Zone on HealthPresented by: Pavel Jelnov, Leibniz University Hannover and IZA

• Inequality in Life Expectancies across EuropePresented by: Jesus Bueren, European University Institute

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• The Relation of Age and Subjective Wellbeing: Estimating Simultaneously Within and Between EffectsPresented by: Erkan Gören, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg

INFORMATION IN MARKETS

University Place - 4.205Chair: Dmitry Ivanov, Higher School of Economics

• How Informed are Sellers of Nonhomogeneous Goods?: Market Structure and Pricing Behavior in the South African Art Auction Market, 2009 - 2013Presented by: Johannes Fedderke, Pennsylvania State University

• Movie Review Manipulation --- A Study of Douban.comPresented by: Chenxue Hou, Sun Yat-sen University

• How big is the “lemons” problem? Historical evidence from French appellation wines.Presented by: Emmanuel Paroissien, INRA

• Data brokers co-opetitionPresented by: Carlo Reggiani, University of Manchester

• Identifying Bid Leakage In Procurement Auctions: Machine Learning ApproachPresented by: Alexander Nesterov, Higher School of Economics

KNOWLEDGE, INNOVATION, AND R&D

University Place - 4.209Chair: Francois Lafond, University of Oxford

• Investment in Knowledge-Based Capital and Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence from a Small Open EconomyPresented by: Iulia Siedschlag, The Economic and Social Research Institute

• DiscussantsPresented by: Michael Rose, Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition

• Mergers and Innovation PortfoliosPresented by: Evgenia Motchenkova,

• Endogenous cost differentials and incentives for agglomeration in a Hotelling model with location based spillover effectsPresented by: Bipasa Datta, University of York

• Can stimulating demand drive costs down? World War II as a natural experimentPresented by: Francois Lafond, University of Oxford

LABOUR MARKET POLICY

Kilburn Building - 1.4Chair: Ramon Marimon, European University Institute and UPF - Barcelona GSE

• Labor market responses to payroll tax reductionsPresented by: Haomin Wang, University of Konstanz

• Resource Misallocation from Childcare PoliciesPresented by: Loris Rubini, University of New Hampshire

• Should I Stay or Must I Go? Temporary Refugee Protection and Labor-Market OutcomesPresented by: Birthe Larsen, Copenhagen Business School

• Optimal UI policies in heterogeneous labor marketsPresented by: Benjamin Hartung, European Central Bank

• Introducing an Austrian Backpack in Spain Presented by: Ramon Marimon, European University Institute and UPF - Barcelona GSE

LAW AND ECONOMICS OF SANCTIONS AND CRIME

University Place - 4.211Chair: Daniel Montolio, University of Barcelona (Spain)

• Under Pressure? Performance Evaluation of Police Officers as an Incentive to Cheat: Evidence from Drug Crimes in RussiaPresented by: Ekaterina Travova,

• Hanging Down Under: Capital Punishment and Deterrence in AustraliaPresented by: Vincent O’Sullivan, Lancaster University Management School

• Charter Takeovers, No Excuses Strategy, and Youth Crime. Evidence from London Secondary School AcademiesPresented by: Emma Duchini, University of Warwick

• Fines versus Liability: Experimental Evidence on Care IncentivesPresented by: Tim Friehe, University of Marburg

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• Bolstering community ties and its effect on crime: Evidence from a quasi-random experimentPresented by: Daniel Montolio, University of Barcelona (Spain)

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Anna Samarina, De Nederlandsche Bank

• Monetary Policy and Production Networks: an Empirical InvestigationPresented by: Mishel Ghassibe, University of Oxford

• New Evidence on Monetary Transmission: Interest Rate versus Inflation Target ShocksPresented by: Elizaveta Lukmanova, KU Leuven and Vienna University of Economics and Business

• Imperfect Pass-Through to Deposit Rates and Monetary Policy TransmissionPresented by: Alberto Polo, New York University

• A Markov-switching Proxy SVARPresented by: Shayan Zakipour-Saber, Queen Mary University of London

• Does monetary policy affect income inequality in the euro area?Presented by: Anna Samarina, De Nederlandsche Bank

NEW APPROACHES TO BUSINESS CYCLES

University Place - 4.213Chair: Jan-Egbert Sturm, ETH Zurich

• Business cycles in spacePresented by: Tom Holden, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequenciesPresented by: Fabio Verona, Bank of Finland

• Financial Crisis Prediction with Machine LearningPresented by: Marcus Buckmann, Bank of England

• On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-OptimismPresented by: Tim Willems, International Monetary Fund

• Do Recession Expectations Kill Political Budget Cycles?Presented by: Jan-Egbert Sturm, ETH Zurich

RISK, ASPIRATIONS AND BEHAVIOUR

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Renate Strobl, University of Basel

• Income Shocks and Poverty Traps. Asset Smoothing in Rural EthiopiaPresented by: Douglas Scott, University of Nottingham

• Be Positive and See Yourself Burdened with Debt? The Effect of Biased Expectations on (Over-)IndebtednessPresented by: Theres Klühs, Leibniz University Hannover

• Hiding loans in the household using mobile money: Experimental evidence on microenterprise investment in UgandaPresented by: Emma Riley, University of Oxford

• Risky Choices and Solidarity: Why Experimental Design MattersPresented by: Renate Strobl, University of Basel

SKILL DEMAND

Jean McFarlane - 2.328Chair: Lennart Ziegler, University of Vienna

• Does Inequality really increase Crime? Theory and EvidencePresented by: Matteo Pazzona, Brunel University

• Skill dispersion, firm productivity, and production technology: new empirical evidence and implicationsPresented by: Nick Zubanov, University of Konstanz

• Wage inequality: College premium, economic geography, and private-public sectorPresented by: Hildegunn Stokke, Norwegian University of Science and Technology

• Intellectual Property Rights, Professional Business Services and Earnings InequalityPresented by: Gorkem Bostanci, University of Pennsylvania

• Skill Demand and Wages. Evidence from Online Job Postings in AustriaPresented by: Lennart Ziegler, University of Vienna

WAGES

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank

• Wages, Compositional Effects and the Business CyclePresented by: Omiros Kouvavas, University of Warwick

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• Job-to-job flows and wage cyclicality in France and ItalyPresented by: Eliana Viviano,

• Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slackPresented by: Dennis Bonam, De Nederlandsche Bank

• The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro areaPresented by: Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

• Solving theWage Puzzle: Does the “Non-Employment Index” Explain European Wage Dynamics Since the Crisis?Presented by: Stephen Byrne, Central Bank of Ireland

WHAT WORKS IN SCHOOLS AND BEYOND?

Kilburn Building - 1.5Chair: Gianni De Fraja, Department of Economics

• Experimenting with dropout prevention policiesPresented by: Karen van der Wiel, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

• The Effect of Group Formation and Differentiated Instruction on Learning Outcomes. Evidence from Two Randomised Control Trials.Presented by: Kaat Iterbeke, KU Leuven

• Urban and education place-based policies: Effect on academic achievementPresented by: Manon Garrouste, Université de Lille

• Higher Education Funding Reforms: A Comprehensive Analysis of Educational and Labour Market Outcomes in EnglandPresented by: Stefania Simion, University of Edinburgh

• Have you read this? An empirical comparison of the British REF peer review and the Italian VQR bibliometric algorithmPresented by: Gianni De Fraja, Department of Economics

ES SESSIONS

AGGREGATE DYNAMICS OF FRICTIONAL LABOUR MARKETS

University Place - 4.204Chair: Eran Hoffmann, Hebrew University

• Costly decisions, rigid wages, and frictional labor reallocationPresented by: James Costain, European Central Bank

• Specific Capital and the Business Cycle Effects on the Postgraduate Wage PremiumPresented by: Ran Gu, University Of Essex

• Social Connections, Strategic Referrals, and On-the-Job SearchPresented by: Ji-Woong Moon, The Pennsylvania State University

• Making Do with Less?\\ Workers’ On-the-Job Effort and the Role on Macro EffectsPresented by: Kunio Tsuyuhara, University of Calgary

• At-risk jobs, regional growth, and labor market flowsPresented by: Eran Hoffmann, Hebrew University

CHOICE AND PREFERENCES

University Place - 2.218Chair: Gregorio Curello, University of Oxford

• Inference of welfare from choice observations: an axiomatic and empirical analysisPresented by: Daniele Caliari, Queen Mary University

• Salience and Skewness PreferencesPresented by: Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management

• The choice environment, constraints, and rational proceduresPresented by: Philipp Zahn, University of St. Gallen

• Revealed Preference Systems: A General Tool and Application to the Choice Under PluralityPresented by: Seyed Hassan Nosratabadi, Université catholique de Louvain

• The Lattice structure of Preference ComparisonPresented by: Gregorio Curello, University of Oxford

COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING

University Place - 1.218Chair: Heski Bar-Isaac, University of Toronto

• Collective mistake in a tricky question under strategic votingPresented by: Tomoya Tajika, Hokusei Gakuen University

• Prosocial Behavior and Deliberative DemocracyPresented by: Xiangyu Qu, CNRS

• Designing Organizations in Volatile MarketsPresented by: Dimitri Migrow, University of Calgary

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• Optimal Tax for the Household: Collective and Unitary MOdelPresented by: Érica Oliveira, Fundação Getúlio Vargas

• Blockholder VotingPresented by: Heski Bar-Isaac, University of Toronto

HEALTH

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Milena Suarez, INSEE-CREST

• Saving Lives by Tying Hands: The Unexpected Effects of Constraining Health Care ProvidersPresented by: Thomas Hoe, Cornell University

• Digital Waste? Unintended Consequences of Health Information TechnologyPresented by: Tanja Saxell, VATT (Visiting Stanford)

• How Do Hospitals Respond Differently to Competition? Quality, Prices, and EfficiencyPresented by: Hongsong Zhang, University of Hong Kong

• Democracy, Genes, and the Male Survival DisadvantagePresented by: Marie Christelle Mabeu, University of Ottawa

• Disentangling the causal effects of air pollutants on health: when the numerous characteristics of the planetary boundary layer can helpPresented by: Milena Suarez, INSEE-CREST

HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS AND INEQUALITY

University Place - 4.206Chair: Diego Legal-Cañisá, University of Virginia

• Determinants of wealth inequality and mobility in general equilibriumPresented by: Thomas Fischer, Lund University

• More work for the rich and more play for the poor: constrained optimal saving and work hours in the heterogeneous agent neoclassical growth modelPresented by: Akshay Shanker, Australian National University

• Uncertainty and Inflation in a Heterogeneous Agent ModelPresented by: Anna Rogantini Picco, European University Institute

• Nominal Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward GuidancePresented by: Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

• Unemployment Insurance with Consumer BankruptcyPresented by: Diego Legal-Cañisá, University of Virginia

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

University Place - 3.205Chair: Tatiana Komarova, London School of Economics

• Confidence regions for averaging estimatorsPresented by: Tom Boot, University of Groningen

• Tests For Independence Between Categorical VariablesPresented by: Juan Sentana, University of Essex

• Testing Many Moment Inequalities with Symmetry InferencePresented by: Nick Koning, University of Groningen

• A Distributional Approach to Model Selection and Averaging by Probabilistic Significance TestsPresented by: Yi-Ting Chen, Academia Sinica

• Testing nonparametric shape restrictionsPresented by: Tatiana Komarova, London School of Economics

INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION: EMPIRICAL STRUCTURAL MODELS

University Place - 3.214Chair: Alexander Torgovitsky, University of Chicago

• The Competitive Conduct of Consumer CooperativesPresented by: Marco Duarte, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• Optimal Dynamic Hotel PricingPresented by: Sung-Jin Cho, Seoul National University

• Endogenous markups, input misallocation and geographical supplier accessPresented by: Gregor Singer, London School of Economics

• Dynamic Foundations for Empirical Static GamesPresented by: Lorenzo Magnolfi, University of Wisconsin-Madison

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• Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance ExchangePresented by: Alexander Torgovitsky, University of Chicago

MACROECONOMICS: CONSUMPTION AND SAVING

University Place - 4.210Chair: Anne Hannusch, University of Mannheim

• Lending Standards and Consumption Insurance over the Business CyclePresented by: Felicia Ionescu, Federal Reserve Board

• Household Balance Sheets and Consumption Responses to Income ShocksPresented by: Yunho Cho, Jinan University

• The intertemporal marginal propensity to consume out of future persistent cash-flows: Evidence from transaction level dataPresented by: Jeppe Druedahl, University of Copenhagen

• All Debt Not Equal: Student Loan, Credit Card Debt and the Young American HouseholdsPresented by: Wenli Li, Research

• Back to Becker: Producing Consumption with Time and GoodsPresented by: Anne Hannusch, University of Mannheim

MACROECONOMICS: GOVERNMENT POLICIES, INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND INEQUALITY

University Place - 4.212Chair: Yi-Chan Tsai, National Taiwan University

• Financial Consequences of Healthcare Reforms in General Equilibrium with Default RiskPresented by: Youngsoo Jang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

• To Means-Test or Not to Means-Test: Optimality and Life-Cycle Effects of Universal Basic Income ProgramsPresented by: Andre Victor Luduvice, University of Pennsylvania

• How Does Monetary Policy Affect Income and Wealth Inequality? Evidence from Quantitative Easing in the Euro AreaPresented by: Jiri Slacalek, European Central Bank

• Inequality and the Size of GovernmentPresented by: Weijie Luo, Central University of Finance and Economics

• Rising skill premium and dynamics of optimal taxationPresented by: Yi-Chan Tsai, National Taiwan University

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS

University Place - 4.214Chair: Elena Perazzi, University of Lausanne

• Mind the Gap! A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips CurvePresented by: Ayse Kabukcuoglu, North Carolina State University

• Taking Away the Punch Bowl: Monetary Policy and Financial InstabilityPresented by: Kevin Sheedy, London School of Economics

• Explanation of US Interest Rates based on Inflation Tax AvoidancePresented by: Ceri Davies, University of Birmingham

• ECB Monetary Policy and Cross-Market Financial Spillovers: Evidence from large TVP-VARPresented by: Joey Soudant, University of Namur

• On the special role of deposits for long-term lendingPresented by: Elena Perazzi, University of Lausanne

PANEL DATA

University Place - 3.210Chair: Takashi Yamagata, University of York & Osaka University

• Identification of Spillover Effects using Panel DataPresented by: Christiern Rose, University of Queensland

• Latent Group Structures with Heterogeneous Distributions: Identification and EstimationPresented by: Heng Chen, Bank of Canada

• Short T Dynamic Panel Data Models with Individual and Interactive Time EffectsPresented by: L. Vanessa Smith, University of York

• Spatial dynamic models with intertemporal optimization II: coevolution of economic activities and networksPresented by: Hanbat Jeong, OSU

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• A robust approach to heteroskedasticity, error serial correlation and slope heterogeneity for large linear panel data models with interactive effectsPresented by: Takashi Yamagata, University of York & Osaka University

PARTIA1 IDENTIFICATION

University Place - 3.212Chair: Marinho Bertanha, University of Notre Dame

• Partial Identification in nonparametric one-to-one matching modelsPresented by: Cristina Gualdani, Toulouse School of Economics

• Sensitivity of Bounds on ATEs under Survey Non-responsePresented by: Lukas Laffers, Matej Bel University, Faculty of Natural Sciences

• Inference in Games without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening HoursPresented by: Erhao Xie, Bank of Canada

• Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimators Under Misspecification: A Problem and a Partial SolutionPresented by: Ben Deaner, MiT

• Better Bunching, Nicer NotchingPresented by: Marinho Bertanha, University of Notre Dame

RURAL/URBAN/INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Ioana Schiopu, ESADE Business School

• Land market distortions and aggregate productivity: Evidence from GuatemalaPresented by: Manuel Hernandez, IFPRI

• Farm support and market distortion: Evidence from a quasi-natural policy experiment in IndiaPresented by: Abhinav Narayanan, Reserve Bank of India

• Decentralized Targeting of Agricultural Credit Programs: Private versus Political IntermediariesPresented by: Sujata Visaria, Hong Kong University of Science and Tech

• Does Electrification Cause Industrial Development? Grid Expansion and Firm Turnover in IndonesiaPresented by: Dana Kassem, University of Mannheim

• Urbanization, Productivity Differences and Spatial FrictionsPresented by: Ioana Schiopu, ESADE Business School

13:00 to 14:00The Policy Impacts of Empirical

ResearchUniversity Place - Lecture Theatre A

(Organised by the EEA Standing Committee on Research, Andrea Weber)Speakers and Presentations: Ghazala Azmat Funding Higher Education, Christian Dustmann, Migration, Politics, and the Media and Claus Thurstrup Kreiner

How influential is empirical research in economics for policy decisions in Europe? The impressive rise in empirical research in economics is not equally reflected in a more vivid exchange between policy makers and academic researchers. This is unfortunate as a large body of research based on rigorous identification strategies and rich administrative data from national registers provides an important input for evidence based policy making. To motivate the exchange, the EEA Standing Committee of Research starts collecting examples of empirical research that have an impact on public policy. To initiate the collection, this lunch session invites leading researchers who report about experiences in the areas of migration, education, and tax policy.

14:15 to 16:00CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 7

EEA SESSIONS

ALTRUISM AND NORMS

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Robertas Zubrickas,

• Local Norms Describing the Role of the State and the Private Provision of TrainingPresented by: Stefan Wolter, University of Bern

• Optimal income taxation in the presence of networks of altruismPresented by: Anasuya Raj, Ecole Polytechnique

• Inheritance taxation with agents differing in altruism and productivity.Presented by: Erwan Moussault, THEMA University of Cergy Pontoise

• Donation-Based Crowdfunding with Refund BonusesPresented by: Robertas Zubrickas,

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BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL INVESTORS AND ASSET PRICES

University Place - 2.217Chair: Katrin Gödker, University of Hamburg

• Diversification in Lottery-Like Features and Portfolio Pricing DiscountsPresented by: Xin Liu, University of Bath

• Experience Does not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental EvidencePresented by: Anita Kopányi-Peuker, University of Amsterdam

• Cultural Biases in Equity AnalysisPresented by: Vesa Pursiainen, Imperial College London and University of Hong Kong

• Investor MemoryPresented by: Katrin Gödker, University of Hamburg

COLLUSION

University Place - 1.219Chair: Lucy White, Questrom School of Management, Boston Un

• A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1820-2014Presented by: Martin Stuermer, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

• Macroeconomic Effects of Market Structure DistortionsPresented by: Flavien Moreau, UCLA

• Cartel stability in experimental auctionsPresented by: Leonard Treuren, University of Amsterdam

• Asymmetric Cartels: Who Gains, Who Deviates, and Some Unintended Consequences of Anti-Trust PoliciesPresented by: Lucy White, Questrom School of Management, Boston Un

EAERE SESSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: Moritz Drupp, Hamburg University

• Tax neutrality, entry and discoveries: Evidence from oil drilling in the North SeaPresented by: Lassi Ahlvik, Norwegian School of Economics

• Borders and Resources: Evidence of strategic explorationPresented by: Torfinn Harding, Norwegian School of Economics

• The Global Consumer Incidence of Carbon Pricing: Evidence from TradePresented by: Lutz Sager, London School of Economics and Political Science

• Inter- and Intragenerational Distribution and the Valuation of Natural CapitalPresented by: Moritz Drupp, Hamburg University

EDUCATION

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Matias Cortes, York University

• Does a High School Diploma Matter? Evidence Using Regression Discontinuity DesignPresented by: Deni Mazrekaj, KU Leuven

• Learning by Problem-SolvingPresented by: Alexander Patt, Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt

• Effects of Military Conscription on the Labour Market and EducationPresented by: Daniel Almén, Stockholm University

• Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the U.S. and MexicoPresented by: Matias Cortes, York University

EVALUATION OF LABOUR MARKET POLICIES

University Place - 2.219Chair: Annette Bergemann, University of Bristol

• Evaluation of the Finnish Basic Income experiment: First year resultsPresented by: Jouko Verho, VATT Institute for Economic Research

• Equilibrium effects of making work pay policies: Evidence from GermanyPresented by: Luke Haywood, DIW Berlin

• Flexible Parametric Covariate Balancing Weights for the Estimation of Dose-Reponse Functions and the Effects of Entrepreneurship TrainingPresented by: Stefan Tübbicke, University of Potsdam

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• Non-Cognitive Skills and Gender Differences in Training Programmes for the UnemployedPresented by: Annette Bergemann, University of Bristol

FERTILITY AND CHILDREN

University Place - 3.204Chair: Malte Sandner, Institute for Employment Research

• Can Mass Media Campaigns Increase Modern Contraception Uptake? Experimental Evidence From Burkina FasoPresented by: Victor Pouliquen, Paris School of Economics

• The baby year parental leave reform in the GDR and its impact on children’s long-term life satisfactionPresented by: Katharina Heisig, ifo Institute

• Retirement, intergenerational time transfers, and fertilityPresented by: Peter Eibich, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Res

• The Effects of Universal Public Childcare Provision on Cases of Child Neglect and AbusePresented by: Malte Sandner, Institute for Employment Research

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLES

University Place - 3.209Chair: Rafael Domenech, Universidad de Valencia and BBVA Research

• Monetary Policy and the Cost of Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Stock MarketPresented by: Vincenzo Pezone, Goethe University and SAFE

• Credit Demand Shocks and the Business CyclePresented by: Richard Kima, University of Southampton

• Partial dollarization in a small open economy with financial and labor market frictionsPresented by: Cristian Bulete, National Bank of Romania

• Macroeconomic Effects of Taxes on BankingPresented by: Rafael Domenech, Universidad de Valencia and BBVA Research

FORECASTING MACRO AND FINANCIAL VARIABLES

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Anne Hansen, University of Copenhagen

• Exploiting the information of Signed Jumps and Jump Activity in forecasting Stocks Returns VolatilityPresented by: Rodrigo Hizmeri, Lancaster University

• Making text count for macroeconomics: What newspaper text can tell us about the economyPresented by: Arthur Turrell, Bank of England

• Survey-Based Multivariate Density ForecastsPresented by: Florens Odendahl, Banque de France

• Modeling Persistent Interest Rates With Volatility-Induced StationarityPresented by: Anne Hansen, University of Copenhagen

GENDER DIFFERENTIALS IN EDUCATION AND THE LABOUR MARKET

University Place - 3.211Chair: Laura Hospido, Banco de España and IZA

• Understanding Gender Differences in Preferences for STEMPresented by: Judith Delaney, Economic and Social Research Institute

HETEROGENEITY IN THE U.S. GENDER WAGE GAP

Presented by: Philipp Bach, University of Hamburg

• The Gender Gap in Earnings Between and Within Firms: Evidence from Linked Employer-Employee DataPresented by: Salvatore Lattanzio, University of Cambridge

• Gender Gaps in Evaluation: Evidence from Submissions to ConferencesPresented by: Laura Hospido, Banco de España and IZA

INTERACTIONS

Jean McFarlane - 2.328Chair: Tore Nilssen, University of Oslo

• Voluntarily Separable Games with In-relationship SearchPresented by: Xiaoxiao Hu, Wuhan University

• The formation of a core-periphery structure in heterogeneous financial networksPresented by: Daan in ‘t Veld, SEO Amsterdam Economics

• The Coevolution of Morals under Indirect ReciprocityPresented by: Stephan Mueller, University of Göttingen

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• Creating Balance in Dynamic CompetitionsPresented by: Tore Nilssen, University of Oslo

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

University Place - 3.213Chair: Husnu Dalgic, University of Mannheim

• When Being Thrifty is Risky: A Paradox of Precaution in International SavingPresented by: Chao He, London School of Economics and Political Science

• Small Firms and Domestic Bank Dependence in Europe’s Great RecessionPresented by: Egor Maslov, University of Zurich

• Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidencePresented by: Timothee Gigout, Collège de France

• Financial Dollarization in Emerging Markets: An Insurance ArrangementPresented by: Husnu Dalgic, University of Mannheim

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION

University Place - 4.205Chair: Sven Blank, Deutsche Bundesbank

• International Relocation of Production and GrowthPresented by: Francisco Alcalá, Universidad de Murcia, Ivie and CEPR

• Trade Credit, Trade Income Elasticity and the International Transmission of ShocksPresented by: Anna Watson, University of Cambridge

• Good connections : bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exportsPresented by: Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, Banque de France

• A Structural Quantitative Analysis of Services Trade De-liberalizationPresented by: Sven Blank, Deutsche Bundesbank

JOB SEARCH

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Axel Gottfries, University of Edinburgh

• The Importance of Non-monetary Determinants in the Job Search Process: Theory and Empirical EvidencePresented by: Miriam Boemer, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

• Unemployment Risks and Intra-Household Insurance Presented by: Javier Fernandez-Blanco, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and BG

• Job Search and Intermediation under Discrimination: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks in FrancePresented by: Dylan Glover, INSEAD

• Bargaining with Renegotiation in Models with On-the-Job SearchPresented by: Axel Gottfries, University of Edinburgh

LABOUR SUPPLY

University Place - 4.209Chair: Selina Gangl, University of Fribourg

• The Effects of Hours Constraints on Work Hours and Labor Force ParticipationPresented by: Sascha Drahs, University of Potsdam

• Early Child Development and Parents’ Labor SupplyPresented by: Lukas Laffers, Matej Bel University, Faculty of Natural Sciences

• Labor Supply Shocks and Human Capital AccumulationPresented by: Teodora Tsankova, University of Warwick

• From housewives to employees? How mandatory kindergarten affects mothers’ labour supplyPresented by: Selina Gangl, University of Fribourg

LEARNING, BELIEFS AND OVERCONFIDENCE

University Place - 4.213Chair: Stephen Cheung, The University of Sydney

• Experiences and expectations in asset markets: an experimental studyPresented by: Myrna Hennequin, University of Amsterdam

• Persistent Overconfident: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in UgandaPresented by: Dagmara Celik Katreniak, National Research Univeristy Higher School of Economics

• Multidimensional and Selective Learning: a case study of Bt cotton farmers in IndiaPresented by: Srijita Ghosh, New York University

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• True Overconfidence, Revealed through Actions: An ExperimentPresented by: Stephen Cheung, The University of Sydney

MISALLOCATION

Kilburn Building - 1.3Chair: Diego Restuccia, University of Toronto

• Misallocation, Mark-ups and Scale: Explaining Productivity Dispersion in NorwayPresented by: Torje Hegna, University of Oslo

• Sudden stops, productivity, and the exchange ratePresented by: Laura Castillo Martinez, London School of Economics

• Product differentiation, market power, and resource allocationPresented by: Bruno Pellegrino, UCLA

• On Average Establishment Size across Sectors and CountriesPresented by: Diego Restuccia, University of Toronto

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY

University Place - 4.211Chair: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

• Optimal Monetary Policy for the MassesPresented by: Riccardo DiCecio, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

• Optimal Monetary Policy with Downward Nominal Wage RigidityPresented by: Christopher Evans, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

• The optimal inflation target and the natural rate of interestPresented by: Philippe Andrade, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

• Raising the Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?Presented by: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DEVELOPMENT

Jean McFarlane - 2.329Chair: Ajay Shenoy, University of California Santa Cruz

• The public morals - public services tradeoff: Theory and evidence from Sharia regulations in IndonesiaPresented by: Attila Gáspár, Central European University

• Churching for Welfare: Politics and Religion in the US 1996-2010Presented by: Jeanet Bentzen,

• Re-election incentives, ethnic favoritism and the subnational allocation of foreign aidPresented by: Georgios Efthyvoulou, University of Sheffield

• Earnings and Takings: The "Unofficial Returns" of Local Public Office in IndiaPresented by: Ajay Shenoy, University of California Santa Cruz

POLITICS AND FISCAL POLICIES

University Place - 2.220Chair: Alessandro Borin, Bank of Italy

• How Does Refugee Immigration Influence Redistribution Politics? Evidence from FinlandPresented by: Riikka Savolainen, King’s College London

• Power to the Moderates! Fiscal Windfalls and Electoral AccountabilityPresented by: Jørgen Juel Andersen, BI Norwegian Business School

• The Effect of Inequality on Fiscal Policy in German MunicipalitiesPresented by: Lea Immel, ifo Institute Munich; University of Munich (LMU)

• EU TRANSFERS AND EUROSCEPTICISM: CAN’T BUY ME LOVE?Presented by: Alessandro Borin, Bank of Italy

PUBLIC PROCUREMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Simon Building - Theatre AChair: Dina Pomeranz, University of Zurich

• Can Audits Backfire? Evidence from Public Procurement in ChilePresented by: Dina Pomeranz, University of ZurichDiscussant: Joana Naritomi, London School of Economics

• The Value of Revolving Doors in Public ProcurementPresented by: Stephane Straub, University of Toulouse CapitoleDiscussant: Lucas Zavala, Yale University

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• Procuring Firm Growth: The Effects of Government Purchases on Firm DynamicsPresented by: Dimitri Szerman, University of MannheimDiscussant: Stephane Straub, University of Toulouse Capitole

RELATIONSHIP LENDING AND ACCESS TO CREDIT

Kilburn Building - 1.4Chair: Patricio Valenzuela, University of Chile

• Bank as a Venture CapitalistPresented by: Kumar Rishabh, University of Basel

• The Anatomy of Cultural Proximity in Credit MarketsPresented by: Antonio Accetturo, Banca d’Italia

• Lending Relationships in Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from Corporate LoansPresented by: Melina Papoutsi, ECB

• Improving Access to Banking: Evidence from KenyaPresented by: Patricio Valenzuela, University of Chile

RETIREMENT AND PENSIONS I

Simon Building - Theatre CChair: Matthias Schön, Deutsche Bundesbank

• The Effects of Early Retirement Incentives on Retirement DecisionsPresented by: Carla Krolage, ifo Institute and University of Munich

• Demographic change, collective wage bargaining and pay-as-you-go social securityPresented by: Max Friese, University of Rostock

• An Investigation of Policy Incentives for Delaying Public Pension Benefit ClaimsPresented by: Tomoki Kitamura, Tohoku Gakuin University

• Demographic Change and the German Current Account SurplusPresented by: Matthias Schön, Deutsche Bundesbank

STRESS TESTING

Kilburn Building - 1.5Chair: Anne-Caroline Hüser, Bank of England

• System-wide stress simulationPresented by: Benjamin King, Bank of England

• Market Information in Banking Supervision: The Role of Stress Test DesignPresented by: Haina Ding, University Savoie Mont Blanc

• Time Inconsistency in Stress Test DesignPresented by: Markus Parlasca, University of Oxford

• Contagion AccountingPresented by: Anne-Caroline Hüser, Bank of England

TRADE, VARIETY, AND INEQUALITY

Jean McFarlane - 2.323Chair: Dorothee Hillrichs, Tilburg University

• Quality and Gravity in International TradePresented by: Florian Unger, LMU Munich

• Trade and Vertical DifferentiationPresented by: Alessandro Tampieri, University of Florence

• Nonhomothetic Preferences and Rent Sharing in an Open EconomyPresented by: Simone Habermeyer, University of Bayreuth

• Recovering Within Country Inequality from trade dataPresented by: Dorothee Hillrichs, Tilburg University

ES SESSIONS

COMPUTATIONAL PROBLEMS AND MACHINE LEARNING

University Place - 4.206Chair: Grey Gordon, FRB Richmond

• Machine learning for dynamic incentive problemsPresented by: Philipp Renner, Lancaster University

• Nonparametric Time-Varying Estimations via a Machine Learning ApproachPresented by: Liyuan Cui, City University of Hong Kong

• Many Average Partial Effects in ℓ1-regularized binomial and fractional regressions: with An Application to Gendered Language on the InternetPresented by: Harold Chiang, Vanderbilt University

• Efficient Computation with Taste ShocksPresented by: Grey Gordon, FRB Richmond

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

EDUCATION AND TRAINING: POLICY EVALUATION

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Arthur Seibold, University of Mannheim

• School choice, school effectiveness and educational segregation: Evidence from centralized school assignment in LondonPresented by: Marco Ovidi, Queen Mary University of London

• Selection, Gender and the Impact of Schooling Type in the Dhaka SlumsPresented by: Saima Khan, New York University Abu Dhabi

• Acquiring Skills to Earn: Impact of Skills Training and Market Linkage on Rural Women in PakistanPresented by: Muhammad Farooq Naseer, Lahore University of Management Sciences

• Mandating Training in Firms: Theory and Evidence from the Colombian Apprenticeship ProgramPresented by: Arthur Seibold, University of Mannheim

EMPIRICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY

University Place - 1.218Chair: Konstantin Sonin, University of Chicago

• Natural Disasters, Moral Hazards, and Special Interests in CongressPresented by: Jörg Spenkuch, Northwestern University

• Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence From CaliforniaPresented by: Babak Jahanshahi, University of Edinburgh

• Public Media Do Serve The State: A Field ExperimentPresented by: Shuhei Kitamura, Osaka University

• Class or Economic Voting? Evidence from Social Mobility in Victorian EnglandPresented by: Janne Tukiainen, VATT Institute for Economic Research

FINANCIAL SYSTEMS AND REGULATION

University Place - 2.218Chair: Carlos Ramirez, Federal Reserve Board

• Banks Risk Taking and Creditors Bargaining PowerPresented by: Alon Raviv, Bar Ilan University

• The Network of Firms Implied by the NewsPresented by: Gustavo Schwenkler, Boston University

• Reach for Yield by U.S. Public Pension FundsPresented by: Andrei Zlate, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

• Regulating Financial NetworksPresented by: Carlos Ramirez, Federal Reserve Board

FISCAL POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON MULTIPLIERS

University Place - 3.214Chair: Julio Garin, Claremont McKenna

• State Dependence of Fiscal MultipliersPresented by: Mishel Ghassibe, University of Oxford

• Infrastructure Investment News and Business Cycles in Japan: Evidence from the VAR with an External InstrumentPresented by: Etsuro Shioji, Hitotsubashi University

• Repatriation TaxesPresented by: Julio Garin, Claremont McKenna

FORECASTING FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS

University Place - 4.204Chair: Xiaohan Xue, University of Reading

• Taking Stock of Long-Horizon Predictability Tests: Are Factor Returns Predictable?Presented by: Michalis Stamatogiannis, University of Liveprool

• Forecasting the realized variance in the presence of intraday periodicityPresented by: Ana-Maria H. Dumitru, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Forecasting realized correlations: a MIDAS approachPresented by: Anastasija Tetereva, University of St. Gallen

• Forecasting Risk Measures Using Intraday Data in a Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) FrameworkPresented by: Xiaohan Xue, University of Reading

IDENTIFICATION OF VAR MODELS

University Place - 4.212Chair: Tincho Almuzara, CEMFI

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• Monetary Policy, External Instruments and HeteroskedasticityPresented by: Thore Schlaak, DIW Berlin

• SVARs Identification through Bounds on the Forecast Error VariancePresented by: Alessio Volpicella, Queen Mary University

• Identifying Shocks via Time-Varying VolatilityPresented by: Daniel Lewis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

• Empirically relevant long-run restrictionsPresented by: Tincho Almuzara, CEMFI

INFERENCE IN PREDICTIVE REGRESSIONS AND FACTOR MODELS

University Place - 4.214Chair: Thomas Despois, Paris School of Economics and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

• Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock ReturnsPresented by: Robert Taylor, University of Essex

• New robust inference for predictive regressionsPresented by: Rustam Ibragimov, Imperial College London

• Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasetsPresented by: Lorenzo Trapani,

• Another look into the factor model black box: factors interpretation and structural (in)stabilityPresented by: Thomas Despois, Paris School of Economics and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

LABOUR MARKETS FLOWS AND OUTCOMES

University Place - 3.212Chair: Shigeru Fujita, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

• Discouragement TrapsPresented by: Tristan Potter, Drexel University

• Human Capital, Credit Constraints, and UnderemploymentPresented by: Paul Jackson, University of California, Irvine

• Health, Crime, and the Labor Market: Theory and Policy AnalysisPresented by: C. Y. Kelvin Yuen, Washington University in St. Louis

• Elasticities of Labor Supply and Labor Force Participation FlowsPresented by: Shigeru Fujita, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

MATCHING

University Place - 3.205Chair: Vincent Meisner, TU Berlin

• Matching with Myopic and Farsighted PlayersPresented by: Ana Mauleon, Saint-Louis University- Brussels

• Centralized Matching with Incomplete InformationPresented by: Marcelo Ariel Fernandez, Johns Hopkins University

• School choice and loss aversionPresented by: Vincent Meisner, TU Berlin

OPTIMAL MECHANISMS

University Place - 3.210Chair: Juan Ignacio Beccuti Vazquez, U Bern

• Collusion via Information Sharing and Optimal AuctionsPresented by: Olga Gorelkina, University of Liverpool

• Optimal Privacy-Constrained MechanismsPresented by: Ran Eilat, Ben Gurion University

• Payoff Implications of Incentive ContractingPresented by: Daniel Garrett, Toulouse School of Economics

• Screening by Mode of TradePresented by: Juan Ignacio Beccuti Vazquez, U Bern

TRADE POLICY AND TRADE EFFECTS WITH GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Yuko Imura, Bank of Canada

• The Impact of Technology Level on Global Value Chain FormationPresented by: Tran Lam Anh Duong, University of Tsukuba

• Endogenous Vertical Differentiation, Variety, and the Unequal Gains from TradePresented by: Gunnar Heins, University of Florida

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• Globalization, Productivity Growth, and Income DistributionPresented by: Oliver Holtemöller, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

• Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value ChainsPresented by: Yuko Imura, Bank of Canada

TREATMENT EFFECTS

University Place - 4.210Chair: Michael Knaus, University of St. Gallen

• Sharp Bounds on the MTE with Sample SelectionPresented by: Vitor Possebom, Yale University

• Sensitivity of LATE Estimates to Violations of the Monotonicity AssumptionPresented by: Claudia Noack,

• Treatment Effect Models with Strategic Interaction in Treatment DecisionsPresented by: Takahide Yanagi, Kyoto University

• Machine Learning Estimation of Heterogeneous Causal Effects: Empirical Monte Carlo EvidencePresented by: Michael Knaus, University of St. Gallen

16:30 to 17:45CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 8

EEA SESSIONS

BANKS AND THE CENTRAL BANK

University Place - 1.219Chair: Daniel Kaufmann, University of Neuchâtel

• The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy to Bank Credit Supply: Evidence from the TLTROPresented by: António Afonso, ISEG-ULisboa

• Banks, Money and the Zero Lower BoundPresented by: Xuan Wang, University of Oxford

• Shocking Interest Rate FloorsPresented by: Daniel Kaufmann, University of Neuchâtel

BOUNDED RATIONALITY AND LEARNING

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Roc Armenter, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

• Endogenously (Non-)Ricardian BeliefsPresented by: Emanuel Gasteiger, TU Wien

• Geometric Rational InattentionPresented by: Roc Armenter, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

CONSUMPTION AND EXPECTATIONS

University Place - 2.217Chair: Penghui Yin, Goethe University Frankfurt

• Economic sentiments and consumption smoothing: International evidencePresented by: Lorenzo Ricci, European Stability Mechanism

• How Do Consumers Adapt to a New Environment in their Economic Forecasting? Evidence from the German Reunification.Presented by: Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Goethe University Frankfurt

• The optimal consumption choice under limited attentionPresented by: Penghui Yin, Goethe University Frankfurt

ECONOMICS OF PHILANTHROPY: EXPERIMENTS

University Place - 4.211Chair: Maja Adena, WZB Social Science Center

• Personalized threshold matching for charitable gifts. A field experimentPresented by: Maja Adena, WZB Social Science Center

• Subsidizing Quantity Donations: Matches, Rebates, and Discounts ComparedPresented by: Johannes Diederich, Heidelberg University

• SOCIAL DISTANCE AND INTER-CHARITY COMPETITIONPresented by: Johannes Lohse, University of Birmingham

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND REGULATION - ENERGY AND WASTE

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Karol Kempa, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management

• Changing the incentive to pollute: Heterogeneous effects of waste pricing policiesPresented by: Marica Valente, HU Berlin and DIW Berlin

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• Technological change, energy, environment and economic growth in JapanPresented by: Galina Besstremyannaya, Centre for Economic and Financial Research at New Economic School

• Clean Energy Investment and Credit RationingPresented by: Karol Kempa, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management

EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCE

University Place - 3.211Chair: Annika Lindblad, University of Helsinki

• Exchange Rate Determination in Incomplete Markets: The Long and the Short of ItPresented by: Simon Lloyd, Bank of England

• Currency Anomalies Presented by: Anthony Garratt, University of Warwick

• Impact of Economic Variables on the Dynamic Co-movement of Exchange Rate and Equity ReturnsPresented by: Annika Lindblad, University of Helsinki

FISCAL POLICY AND FIRM DYNAMICS

University Place - 2.220Chair: edouard jousselin, Banque de France

• Investment Tax Credits and the Response of FirmsPresented by: Adrian Lerche,

• Two-Tier Tax Systems and Firms: Evidence from BrazilPresented by: Arthur Seibold, University of Mannheim

• Shocking Capital: Firm-level Responses to a Large Business Tax Reform in FrancePresented by: edouard jousselin, Banque de France

GLOBAL INEQUALITY

University Place - 4.209Chair: Matteo Richiardi, University of Essex

• Revisiting the Global Decline of the Labor SharePresented by: Sophie Piton, Bank of England

• Global Earnings Inequality, 1970-2018Presented by: Olle Hammar, Uppsala University

• Whom or What Does the Representative Firm Represent? Firm Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Labour SharePresented by: Matteo Richiardi, University of Essex

IDEOLOGY AND COOPERATION

University Place - 4.213Chair: Richard Jong-A-Pin,

• Empirical evidence on repeated sequential gamesPresented by: Riccardo Ghidoni, University of Milan-Bicocca

• Government versus Private Ownership of Public Goods: Experimental EvidencePresented by: David Kusterer, University of Cologne

• An experimental test of survey measured political ideologyPresented by: Richard Jong-A-Pin,

INVESTMENT FUNDS AND STRATEGIES

University Place - 3.204Chair: Dilyara Salakhova, Banque de France & Univ of Paris West Nanterre

• Short Selling and Excess Return CorrelationPresented by: Marco Valerio Geraci, University of Cambridge

• Redemptions and Asset Liquidations in Corporate Bond FundsPresented by: Mark Weth, Deutsche Bundesbank

• Price effect of mutual fund flows on the corporate bond market: the French casePresented by: Dilyara Salakhova, Banque de France & Univ of Paris West Nanterre

LIQUIDITY REGULATION

University Place - 3.209Chair: Guillaume Arnould, Bank of England

• What drives sovereign debt portfolios of banks in a crisis context?Presented by: Matías Lamas, Banco de España

• Preferential Treatment of Government Bonds in Liquidity Regulation - Implications for Bank Behaviour and Financial StabilityPresented by: André Sterzel, Heinrich Heine University Duesseldorf

• Can banks use their liquid asset buffers?Presented by: Guillaume Arnould, Bank of England

ROBOTS AND TRADE

University Place - 3.213Chair: Paulo Bastos, The World Bank

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

• Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor marketsPresented by: Marius Faber, University of Basel

• Robots, Reshoring, and the Lot of Low-Skilled WorkersPresented by: Astrid Krenz, Durham University

• Robots, Tasks, and TradePresented by: Paulo Bastos, The World Bank

TECHNOLOGY AND LABOUR SHARES

University Place - 2.219Chair: Yasuyuki Osumi, University of Hyogo

• Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market InstitutionsPresented by: Luis Guimaraes, Queen’s University Belfast

• Labor shares in the EU - sectoral effects and the role of relative pricesPresented by: Istvan Konya, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

• Biased Technical Changes and Wage Inequality- Skill-Biased vs. Capital-Biased Technical Progress -Presented by: Yasuyuki Osumi, University of Hyogo

THE RISE OF POPULISM I

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Davide Cipullo, Uppsala Universitet

• Censorship, Propaganda, and Political Popularity: Evidence from RussiaPresented by: Nikita Melnikov, Princeton University

• High Frequency Identification of Political Outcome on Asset Prices The case of United Kingdom’s EU Membership ReferendumPresented by: Margaux MacDonald, International Monetary Fund

• Biased Forecasts to Affect Voting Decisions? The Brexit CasePresented by: Davide Cipullo, Uppsala Universitet

TRANSPORTATION AND URBAN ECONOMICS

University Place - 4.205Chair: Clara Santamaria, CEMFI and Universidad Carlos III de Madr

• Roads, Migration and the Spatial Sorting of US Workers by SkillPresented by: Florin Cucu, Sciences Po

• Rush Hours and UrbanizationPresented by: Jan Wickerath, Ruhr Graduate School in Economics

• The Role of Establishment Size in the City-Size Premium in SpainPresented by: Clara Santamaria, CEMFI and Universidad Carlos III de Madr

ES SESSIONS

DYNAMIC CHOICE

University Place - 1.218Chair: Marieke Pahlke, Bielefeld University

• Dynamic Choice with Status Quo: Theory and Design of Efficient ExperimentPresented by: Francois Maniquet, CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain

• Time Consistency, Temporal Resolution Indifference and the Separation of Time and RiskPresented by: Felix Kubler, University of Zurich

• Dynamic Consistency in Incomplete Information Games with Multiple PriorsPresented by: Marieke Pahlke, Bielefeld University

GENDER AND AGE GAPS IN THE LABOUR MARKET

University Place - 2.218Chair: Iacopo Morchio, University of Vienna

• Why are the older workers discriminated?Presented by: Emmanuel Duguet, Université Paris Est, ERUDITE

• Intra-firm hierarchies and gender gapsPresented by: Joanne Tan, University of Michigan

• The Gender Gap: Micro Sources and Macro ConsequencesPresented by: Iacopo Morchio, University of Vienna

HEALTH INSURANCE

University Place - 4.204Chair: Laura Birg, U Göttingen

• Taking Cover: Human Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Shocks and Health InsurancePresented by: Paulino Font Gilabert, University of Essex

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• Long-Term Health Insurance: Theory Meets EvidencePresented by: Martin Karlsson,

• Reference Pricing and Parallel Imports: Evidence from GermanyPresented by: Laura Birg, U Göttingen

INFORMATION DESIGN

University Place - 3.214Chair: Deepal Basak, Indian School of Business

• Information design through scarcity and social learningPresented by: Alexei Parakhonyak, University of Oxford

• Persuasion with Strategic ReportingPresented by: Run Li, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

• Timely Persuasion Presented by: Deepal Basak, Indian School of Business

LEARNING

University Place - 3.212Chair: Julia Salmi, Aalto University

• Learning while Trading: Experimentation and Coasean DynamicsPresented by: Niccolo Lomys, Toulouse School of Economics

• Social Learning with Endogenous Order of MovesPresented by: Daniel Hauser, Aalto University and Helsinki GSE

• Endogenous Learning from Incremental ActionsPresented by: Tuomas Laiho, University of Oslo

MACROECONOMICS: HUMAN CAPITAL, EDUCATION AND INEQUALITY

University Place - 3.210Chair: Urvi Neelakantan, CAFRAL

• A Theory of Human Capital SpecializationPresented by: Daniel Fershtman, University of Bonn and Tel-Aviv University

• Who Values Access to College?Presented by: Urvi Neelakantan, CAFRAL

MARKET EXPERIMENTS

University Place - 4.206Chair: Ro’i Zultan, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

• Manipulation in prediction marketsPresented by: Ro’i Zultan, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

• Cursedness in Markets with Asymmetric Information: Theory and Experimental EvidencePresented by: Lukas Wenner, University of Cologne

• Market power and information effects in a multi-unit auctionPresented by: Andreas Hefti, University of Zurich; Zurich University

PROGRAMME EVALUATION

University Place - 4.214Chair: Michael Lechner, University of St. Gallen

• Combining Quasi-Experimental Shocks with Endogenous Exposure: A General FrameworkPresented by: Kirill Borusyak, Princeton University

• Identification of causal mechanisms based on between-subject double randomization designsPresented by: Conny Wunsch, University of Basel

• Modified Causal Forests for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal EffectsPresented by: Michael Lechner, University of St. Gallen

RISK MANAGEMENT

University Place - 4.212Chair: Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, University of Melbourne

• Backtesting Expected Shortfall via Multi-Quantile RegressionPresented by: Ophélie Couperier, CREST - ENSAE

• Measuring Systemic Risk with Non-Exchangeable CopulasPresented by: Sangwon LEE, THEMA, Université de CERGY-PONTOISE

• What’s Mine is Yours: Sovereign Risk Transmission during the European Debt CrisisPresented by: Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, University of Melbourne

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY

SEARCH AND ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

University Place - 3.205Chair: Markus Parlasca, University of Oxford

• Transition Dynamics in Equilibrium SearchPresented by: Nuray Akin, Ozyegin University, School of Business

• Consumer Rating DynamicsPresented by: Andre Stenzel, University of Mannheim

• Tying Contracts in Selection Markets: A Solution to the Unravelling ProblemPresented by: Markus Parlasca, University of Oxford

TIME SERIES MODELLING WITH REGIME CHANGES AND NON-GAUSSIANITIES

University Place - 4.210Chair: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

• GMM Estimation of Non-Gaussian Structural Vector AutoregressionPresented by: Markku Lanne, University of Helsinki

• Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel dataPresented by: Julia Schaumburg, VU University Amsterdam

• Contagious SwitchingPresented by: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

18:00 to 19:15EEA PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

University Place – Theatre B

• Tax Progressively in MacroeconomicsPresenter: Kjetil Storesletten, University of OsloChair: Eliana La Ferrara, Bocconi University

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THURSDAY 29TH AUGUST 2019

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

09:00 to 10:15MARSHALL LECTUREUniversity Place – Theatre B

• Improving Equality of Opportunity: New Insights from Big Data Presenter: Raj Chetty, Harvard UniversityChair: Per Krusell, Stockholm University

10:45 to 12:45INVITED SESSIONS 2

EEA SESSIONS

COMPETITION AND CONCENTRATION

Simon Building - Theatre BChair: German Gutierrez, NYU Stern

• Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public PolicyPresented by: Chiara Criscuolo, LSE and OECD

• Competition and Market Concentration in EuropePresented by: Tommaso Valletti, Imperial College London

• How EU Markets Became More Competitive Than US Markets: A Study of Institutional DriftPresented by: German Gutierrez, NYU Stern

GENDER AND DEVELOPMENT

Kilburn Building - 1.1Chair: Alessandra Voena, University of Chicago

• Intergenerational Associations and the Fertility TransitionPresented by: Tom Vogl, University of Texas at Austin

• Conditional Cash Transfers and Bargaining Power: Measuring Directly the Impact of Transfers on Female Positions in the MarriagePresented by: Orazio Attanasio, University College London

• Maternal Mortality and the Gender Gap in the Demand for Children in ZambiaPresented by: Roberta Ziparo, University of Aix-Marseille

SURVEYS OF EXPECTATIONS AND THEIR USE

Simon Building - Theatre EChair: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California Berkeley

• Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal EvidencePresented by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California Berkeley

• Human Frictions to the Transmission of Economic PolicyPresented by: Francesco D’Acunto, Boston College

• Salient Price Changes, Inflation Expectations, and Household BehaviorPresented by: Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND CITIES

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: David Weinstein, Columbia University

• The Making of the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from LondonPresented by: Daniel Sturm, London School of Economics

• Division of Labor and Productivity Advantage of Cities: Theory and Evidence from BrazilPresented by: Lin Tian, INSEAD

• The Impact of E-Commerce on Urban Prices and WelfarePresented by: David Weinstein, Columbia University

ES SESSIONS

ADVANCES IN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONS

University Place - Lecture Theatre AChair: Oriana Bandiera,

• Direct and Indirect Effects of Financial Access on SMEsPresented by: Adam Szeidl, Central European University

• Incentives and the Allocation of Authority in Organizations: A Field Experiment with BureaucratsPresented by: Oriana Bandiera,

DECISION MAKING WITHIN ORGANISATIONS / POLITICAL ECONOMY

Simon Building - Theatre AChair: Vasiliki Skreta, UT Austin and University College London

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• Delegation in Veto BargainingPresented by: Navin Kartik, Columbia University

• Voting in Parliaments : Conscience or Strategy?Presented by: Benny Moldovanu, University of Bonn

NEW METHODS FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Simon Building - Theatre CChair: Michal Kolesar, Princeton University

• Minimizing Sensitivity to Model MisspecificationPresented by: Stephane Bonhomme, University of Chicago

• Sensitivity Analysis using Approximate Moment Condition ModelsPresented by: Michal Kolesar, Princeton University

14:15 to 16:00CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 9

EEA SESSIONS

CONSUMER SEARCH

Jean McFarlane - G306 aChair: Ioana Chioveanu, Brunel University London

• Intrafirm comparison shoppingPresented by: Saara Hämäläinen, University of Helsinki

• Social Information and Consumer HeterogeneityPresented by: Lois Simanjuntak, The University of Manchester

• Market Transparency and Consumer Search - Evidence from the German Retail Gasoline MarketPresented by: Simon Martin, University of Vienna

• Endogenous Prominence and Maximal ObfuscationPresented by: Ioana Chioveanu, Brunel University London

EDUCATION POLICIES

Jean McFarlane - 2.328Chair: Grace Li, International Monetary Fund

• The Allocation of Public Expenditures Across Educational Stages: A Quantitative Analysis for a Developing CountryPresented by: Luiz Brotherhood, Fundacao Getulio Vargas

• The Education Trap: Could a grades-focussed educational system be perpetuating poverty in advanced economies?Presented by: Iain Embrey, Lancaster University

• Investing in Public Infrastructure: Roads or Schools?Presented by: Grace Li, International Monetary Fund

EXCHANGE RATES AND THE REAL ECONOMY

University Place - 4.205Chair: Marta Giagheddu, Johns Hopkins SAIS

• What Drives the Terms of Trade Neutrality to Exchange Rates?Presented by: Justas Dainauskas, University of York

• Optimal exchange rate regime and rm dynamicsPresented by: Masashige Hamano, Waseda University

• Cheaper Currencies and Long-Term Growth: The Effect of Exchange Rate Management and Capital ControlsPresented by: Phornchanok Cumperayot, Chulalongkorn University

• Demographics and the real exchange ratePresented by: Marta Giagheddu, Johns Hopkins SAIS

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND FIRMS

Jean McFarlane - 2.325Chair: Patrick Macnamara, University of Manchester

• Uncovering the mechanism(s): Financial constraints and wagesPresented by: Hamzeh Ara, RWTH Aachen University

• Financial Covenants, Firm Financing and InvestmentPresented by: Konrad Adler, Toulouse School of Economics

• Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial MarketPresented by: Lin Shao, Bank of Canada

• Misallocation and Credit Market Constraints: the Role of Long-Term FinancingPresented by: Patrick Macnamara, University of Manchester

FORWARD GUIDANCE

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Sweder van Wijnbergen, University of Amsterdam

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

• Publication of Interest Rate Paths: Guidance?Presented by: Gisle Natvik, BI Norwegian Business School

• Strategic Communication with Heterogenous BeliefsPresented by: Sylverie Herbert, Cornell

• Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on Forward GuidancePresented by: Georg Strasser, European Central Bank

• What Option Prices tell us about the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary PoliciesPresented by: Sweder van Wijnbergen, University of Amsterdam

GENDER AND MARRIAGE IN DEVELOPMENT

University Place - 3.209Chair: Alessia Isopi, University of Manchester

• Women’s Position in Ancestral Societies and Female HIV: The Long-Term Effect of Matrilineality in Sub-Saharan AfricaPresented by: Jordan Loper, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

• Marriage in the time of Aids epidemic: an empirical analysis of BrazilPresented by: Paula Pareda, Sao Paulo University

• The allocation of resources within polygamous households: evidence from NigeriaPresented by: Alessia Isopi, University of Manchester

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

University Place - 4.209Chair: Giorgia Giovannetti, University of Florence

• Global Value Chains and the Business CyclePresented by: alessandro ferrari, European University Institute

• Endogenous Production Networks and Gains from TradePresented by: Yimei Zou, Institute for International Economics Studies, Stockholm University

• The Trade and Import Demand Nexus– What Role for Global Value Chains?Presented by: Frauke Skudelny, ECB

• Global Value Chain Trade along the Belt and Road and Projects AllocationPresented by: Giorgia Giovannetti, University of Florence

HOME OWNERSHIP AND RISKS

University Place - 2.220Chair: Philippe Bracke, Financial Conduct Authority

• Interest-Only Mortgages and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Mortgage Market ReformPresented by: Claes Backman, Lund University

• The Impacts of Mortgage Regulations on Households’ Life-cycle Housing DecisionsPresented by: Anson Ho, Bank of Canada

• Home ownership as self-insurance for long-term care - A dynamic simulation analysisPresented by: Maurice Hofmann, University of Wuerzburg

• Housing Affordability, House Price Expectations and Shared Equity MortgagesPresented by: Philippe Bracke, Financial Conduct Authority

INEQUALITY AND REDISTRIBUTION

University Place - 2.217Chair: Zohal Hessami, University of Konstanz

• Higher Taxation for Fairer Redistribution? A Political Economy Model with Occupational ChoicePresented by: Ning Xue, The University of York

• Inequality, Polygyny and Conflict - Exploring the MechanismsPresented by: Laura Renner, University of Freiburg

• Inequality and Growth in the 21st CenturyPresented by: Weijie Luo, Central University of Finance and Economics

• Does the entry of a woman into political office affect policy choices?Presented by: Zohal Hessami, University of Konstanz

IO THEORY

Jean McFarlane - 2.329Chair: Jacopo Bizzotto, OsloMet

• Reverse ContestsPresented by: aner sela, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

• Authority and Information Acquisition in Cheap Talk with Informational InterdependencePresented by: Daniel Habermacher, The University of Warwick

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• The Impact of Product Qualities on Downstream Bundling in a Distribution ChannelPresented by: Joachim Heinzel, Paderborn University

• Certification DelegationPresented by: Jacopo Bizzotto, OsloMet

LABOUR MARKETS: FRICTIONS AND TECHNOLOGY

University Place - 3.213Chair: Alexandra Fedorets, DIW Berlin

• Mismatch and the consequences of job lossPresented by: Sigurd Mølster Galaasen, Norges Bank

• Labor Supply and Automation InnovationPresented by: Carsten Feuerbaum, KU Eichstätt-Ingolstadt

• A Joint Theory of Polarization and DeunionizationPresented by: Anna Hartmann, University of Cologne

• Large Wage Shocks, Technological Substitution and Employment PerspectivesPresented by: Alexandra Fedorets, DIW Berlin

MATERNAL LABOUR SUPPLY

University Place - 3.204Chair: Hamish Low, University of Oxford

• Million Dollar Baby: Should Parental Benefits Depend on Wages When Payroll Tax Evasion is Present?Presented by: Anna Zasova, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies

• Health Insurance for Children and Mother’s Labor Supply: Evidence from MexicoPresented by: Pablo Celhay, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

• Multiple Births, Birth Quality and Maternal Labour Supply: Analysis of IVF Reform in Sweden Presented by: Hanna Mühlrad, Karolinska Institute

• Individual and Marriage-Specific Investments: women’s labour supply, fertility and bargaining within marriagePresented by: Hamish Low, University of Oxford

MONETARY POLICY AND THE BANKING SECTOR

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Elizaveta Sizova, KU Leuven

• How Banks Respond to NPLs: Evidence from the Euro AreaPresented by: Immacolata Marino, University of Naples Federico II

• Win-win or joy and sorrow? Spillover of asset purchases to the real sectorPresented by: Talina Sondershaus, Halle Institute for Economic Research

• Forward Guidance and the Risk-Taking ChannelPresented by: Nikos Paltalidis, Durham University

• Banks’ Internal Models: Evidence from Inside the Black BoxPresented by: Elizaveta Sizova, KU Leuven

MONEY IN POLITICS: CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND LOBBYING

University Place - 2.219Chair: Bruno Carvalho, NovaSBE - UNL

• The value of confidential policy information: persuasion, transparency, and influencePresented by: Clement Minaudier, LSE

• It Takes Money to Make MPs: New Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign SpendingPresented by: Edgard Dewitte,

• The Efficiency Implications of Political DonationsPresented by: Vítězslav Titl, KU Leuven

• Campaign Spending in Local Elections: The more the merrier?Presented by: Bruno Carvalho, NovaSBE - UNL

RETIREMENT AND PENSIONS II

Kilburn Building - 1.4Chair: Andreas Winkler, University of Kiel

• Survival pessimism and the demand for annuitiesPresented by: David Sturrock, Institute for Fiscal Studies

• The Aging-Inflation Puzzle: on the Interplay between Aging, Inflation and Pension SystemsPresented by: Duarte Nuno Semedo Leite, Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy

• How costly are pension reform reversals? - An analysis based on the Ageing ReportPresented by: Carolin nerlich,

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

• Effective Marginal Tax Rates of Pension SystemsPresented by: Andreas Winkler, University of Kiel

SCHOOLS AND NEIGHBOURHOODS

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: Francesco Andreoli, University of Verona and Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

• Sorting into Neighborhoods and Schools: The Role of Minimum Lot SizesPresented by: Amrita Kulka, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• School Choice and Neighbourhood SortingPresented by: Ellen Greaves, University of Bristol

• Access to Better Public Schools: Effects on Private Expenditure on ChildrenPresented by: Pei Gao, NYU-Shanghai

• Does comprehensive compulsory schooling equalize opportunities?Presented by: Francesco Andreoli, University of Verona and Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

SOCIAL PREFERENCES

University Place - 1.219Chair: Thomas Neuber, University of Bonn

• Giving When Responsible For Others’ RiskPresented by: Xiaogeng Xu, Norwegian School of Economics

• Comparison with others, goal setting, and consistent behaviour: Theory and experimentsPresented by: Pia Weiss, Nottingham University Business School

• The determinants of discounting in intergenerational decision-makingPresented by: Eric Sachsenhausen, RWTH Aachen University

• Motivated by Others’ Preferences? An Experiment on Imperfect EmpathyPresented by: Thomas Neuber, University of Bonn

SOVEREIGN DEBT AND DEFAULT

University Place - 4.211Chair: Jean-Paul RENNE, University of Lausanne

• Sovereign Debt Overhang, Expenditure Composition, and Debt RestructuringsPresented by: Hyungseok Joo, University of Surrey

• A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign DefaultsPresented by: Grey Gordon, FRB Richmond

• Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of HaircutsPresented by: Timm Marc Prein, University of Konstanz

• Fiscal Limits and Sovereign Credit SpreadsPresented by: Jean-Paul RENNE, University of Lausanne

SYSTEMIC RISK, BANKS AND NONBANKS

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Deyan Radev, University of Bonn

• Systemic risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important banksPresented by: Alin Marius Andries, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi

• Systemic Risk and Centrality Revisited: The Role of InteractionsPresented by: Hossein Asgharian, Lund University

• Benefits and Risks of Shadow Money: Evidence from the Chinese WMP MarketPresented by: Eva Luetkebohmert, University of Freiburg

• Bank Resolution Regimes and Systemic RiskPresented by: Deyan Radev, University of Bonn

TAX EVASION II

Kilburn Building - 1.3Chair: Zhiyang Jia,

• Small Firms and Corporate Taxes: Effects on (Real) Economic OutcomesPresented by: Aliisa Koivisto, University of Helsinki

• Structured Management and Tax Planning Practices in the FirmPresented by: Katarzyna Bilicka, Utah State University

• Tax Haven Investors and Corporate Profitability - Evidence of Profit Shifting by German-Based Affiliates of Multinational FirmsPresented by: Sarah Godar, Charles University Prague, Berlin School of Economics and Law

• Behavioral Responses to Tax Audits: Between Deterrence and ApprovalPresented by: Zhiyang Jia,

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TAXATION AND THE FIRM

Kilburn Building - 1.5Chair: Jarkko Harju, VATT Institute for Economic Research

• Optimal Benefit-Based Corporate Income TaxPresented by: Simon Naitram, University of Glasgow

• Effects of subsidizing the first employee – Empirical evidence from FinlandPresented by: Annika Nivala, University of Turku

• Redistributive Taxation and Directed Technical ChangePresented by: Jonas Loebbing, University of Cologne

• Are Taxes Turning Humans Into Machines? Using Payroll Tax Variation to Estimate the Capital-Labor Elasticity of SubstitutionPresented by: Jarkko Harju, VATT Institute for Economic Research

TRADE SHOCKS

University Place - 4.213Chair: Clément Mazet-Sonilhac, Sciences Po Paris, Banque de France

• The Gains from Reshaping Infrastructure: Evidence from the Division of GermanyPresented by: Marta Santamaria, Universitat Pompeu Fabra / BGSE

• The Common Currency Effect on Trade: Causal Evidence from a Natural ExperimentPresented by: Roger Vicquéry, London School of Economics

• Trade disruption, industrialisation, and the setting sun of British colonial rule in IndiaPresented by: Bjoern Brey, University of Nottingham

• Technology-induced Trade Shocks? Evidence from Broadband Expansion in FrancePresented by: Clément Mazet-Sonilhac, Sciences Po Paris, Banque de France

TWENTY YEARS OF THE EURO

Simon Building - Theatre DChair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

• Private and public risk sharing in the euro areaPresented by: Jacopo Cimadomo, European Central Bank

• The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policyPresented by: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

• Central Banks in Parliaments - A text analysis approach to accountability practices and an application to the ECB, the Fed and the BoEPresented by: Alessandro Giovannini, European Central Bank

• Hanging from a cross of euros? Macroeconomic adjustment in and out of the EurozonePresented by: Livio Stracca,

WAGES AND FIRMS

University Place - 3.211Chair: Martin Kerndler, TU Wien

• Wage Dispersion Between FirmsPresented by: Horng Chern Wong, University of Warwick

• Do Public Subsidies to Union Membership Increase Union Membership Rates?Presented by: Harald Dale-Olsen, Institute for Social Research

• Why Do Large Firms Pay Higher Wages? Novel Stylized Facts From Linked Firm-establishment-worker DataPresented by: Daniel Bias, Technical University of Munich

• Size and persistence matters: Wage and employment insurance at the micro levelPresented by: Martin Kerndler, TU Wien

ES SESSIONS

AGGREGATE VOLATILITY AND SPILLOVERS IN OPEN ECONOMIES

University Place - 4.212Chair: Adam Gulan, Bank of Finland

• Uncertainty and Aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations in Small Open EconomiesPresented by: Diego Vilan, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

• Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movementPresented by: Paul Ko, Pennsylvania State University

• The decomposition of the impact of international monetary spillovers to emerging market economies Presented by: Francisco Santos, IPEA

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

• Interest Rates, Revealed Preferences, and the Open EconomyPresented by: Adam Gulan, Bank of Finland

BEHAVIOUR IN GAMES

University Place - 4.210Chair: Wladislaw Mill, University of Mannheim

• Communication with Partially Verifiable Information: An ExperimentPresented by: Maria Montero, University of Nottingham

• Overconfidence and Competition: An Experimental AnalysisPresented by: Simona Grassi, Kings College London

• Spite in LitigationPresented by: Wladislaw Mill, University of Mannheim

CONTRACT THEORY II

University Place - 4.204Chair: Alexander Frug, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

• Optimal CEO TurnoverPresented by: Youzhi Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

• Ambiguity and Beliefs in the Principal Agent ModelPresented by: Jaime Zender, University of Colorado Boulder

• Should I Stalk or Should I Go? An Insurance Auditing Exploration/Exploitation DilemmaPresented by: Reda Aboutajdine, Ecole Polytechnique

• Monotone ContractsPresented by: Alexander Frug, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, EDUCATION CHOICES AND OUTCOMES

University Place - 3.212Chair: Matias Cortes, York University

• Self-financing, Parental Transfer, and College EducationPresented by: Sunha Myong, Singapore Management University

• Liquidity constraints, opportunity cost and post-secondary education. Evidence from ColombiaPresented by: Jaime Millán-Quijano, UC3M

• The Evolution of the U.S. Family Income-Schooling Relationship and Educational SelectivityPresented by: Jorgen Hansen, concordia university

• Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrollment and Labor Market Outcomes of College GraduatesPresented by: Matias Cortes, York University

INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION: THEORY

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Sergei Izmalkov, New Economic School Moscow

• Proportional versus Fixed Fees: Incentive and WelfarePresented by: Zhiyong Yao, Fudan University, School of Management

• Does a narrower product range mean lower welfare? Horizontal merger analysis with endogenous product range choicePresented by: Lijun Pan, Nanjing University

• Multi-product Supply Function EquilibriaPresented by: Bert Willems, Tilburg University

• Davids and Goliath: Spatial competition of niche and general productsPresented by: Sergei Izmalkov, New Economic School Moscow

MACRO-FINANCE II: PREDICTABILITY AND DISCOUNT RATES

University Place - 3.210Chair: Lea Eilers, RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

• Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?Presented by: Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

• Prices and Returns: What Is the Role of Inflation?Presented by: Yulong Sun, Bocconi University

• Technology adoption and long discount ratesPresented by: Rodolfo Prieto, INSEAD

• Is My Rental Price Overestimated? A Small Area Index for GermanyPresented by: Lea Eilers, RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

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METHODS FOR EVALUATION OF FINANCIAL FORECASTS

University Place - 3.205Chair: Alan Wan, City University of Hong Kong

• Nonparam0etric Tests for Superior Predictive AbilityPresented by: Valerio Poti, University College Dublin

• Detecting Density Forecast BreakdownsPresented by: Yiru Wang, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF)

• Encompassing Tests for Higher-Order Elicitable FunctionalsPresented by: Timo Dimitriadis, University of Konstanz

• Model Averaging for Interval-valued DataPresented by: Alan Wan, City University of Hong Kong

MINIMUM DISTANCE ESTIMATION

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: Selver Derya Uysal, LMU Munich

• Optimal GMM-based Model Averaging for Finite SamplesPresented by: Luis Filipe Martins, Instituto Universitario de Lisboa, ISCTE - IUL

• A Doubly Corrected Robust Variance Estimator for Linear GMMPresented by: Byunghoon Kang, Lancaster University

• Inference in linear models with structural changes and mixed identification strengthPresented by: Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University

• Heterogeneity in Network Peer EffectsPresented by: Selver Derya Uysal, LMU Munich

MONETARY POLICY AND HETEROGENEITY

University Place - 2.218Chair: Tobias König, DIW Berlin, Humboldt University Berlin

• Heterogeneous households and the portfolio rebalancing channel of monetary policyPresented by: Matteo Leombroni, Stanford

• Heterogeneity in inflation expectations and personal experiencePresented by: Cristina Angelico, Bocconi University

• Central Bank Predictions, Heterogeneous Expectations and Inflation DynamicsPresented by: Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

• The Financial Accelerator, Wages and Optimal Simple Monetary Policy RulesPresented by: Tobias König, DIW Berlin, Humboldt University Berlin

OPTIMAL MONETARY AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT POLICY

University Place - 4.214Chair: Mark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

• Optimal Policy under Dollar PricingPresented by: Konstantin Egorov, New Economic School

• Exchange rate volatility and welfare in an incomplete markets’ economyPresented by: Sara Eugeni, Durham University

• Searching for Currency Regime Effects on Real Exchange Rate Adjustments: 1972 Okinawa ReversionPresented by: Takashi Kano, Hitotsubashi University

• OPTIMAL CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION IN CHINAPresented by: Mark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

VOTING AND ELECTIONS

University Place - 4.206Chair: Costel Andonie, University of Chicago

• Stable ConstitutionsPresented by: Daeyoung Jeong, Pohang University of Science and Technology

• Dynamic Campaign SpendingPresented by: Edoardo Grillo, Collegio Carlo Alberto

• Sequential Vote BuyingPresented by: Jan Zapal, CERGE-EI, IAE-CSIC, and Barcelona GSE

• Attentiveness in elections with impressionable votersPresented by: Costel Andonie, University of Chicago

WELFARE ECONOMICS

University Place - 3.214Chair: Canh Dang, University of Warwick

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

• A model of social welfare improving transfersPresented by: Brice Magdalou, University of Montpellier

• Are Sufficient Statistics Necessary? Nonparametric Measurement of Deadweight Loss from Unemployment InsurancePresented by: Zhuan Pei, Cornell University

• Luck-Decomposable Mobility IndexPresented by: Jun Matsui, Waseda University

• Does transparency come at the cost of charitable services? Evidence from investigating British charitiesPresented by: Canh Dang, University of Warwick

16:30 to 17:45CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 10

EEA SESSIONS

ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND REGULATION

Jean McFarlane - G306 bChair: Ralf Martin, Imperial college

• Heterogeneous welfare and emission effects of energy tax policies in BrazilPresented by: Maria Alice Moz Christofoletti, University of Sao Paulo

• Making Smart Meters Smart the Smart WayPresented by: Quentin Coutelier, Imperial College London

• Sharing is cheating? Solar microgrids and consumer behavior in RwandaPresented by: Ralf Martin, Imperial college

EXPECTATIONS, UNCERTAINTY AND CYCLES

University Place - 3.204Chair: Joao Madeira, University of York

• Household Expectations and the Credit CyclePresented by: Cristina Angelico, Bocconi University

• Regime-dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural InterpretationPresented by: Fabien Tripier, Université Paris-Saclay & CEPII

• Wage inflation and unemployment under heterogeneous expectations with evolutionary learningPresented by: Joao Madeira, University of York

INSTITUTION SPECIALIZATION AND CHANGE

University Place - 1.219Chair: Kevin Sheedy, London School of Economics

• Economic Incentives, Institutional and Cultural Change: the Evolution of Slavery in the Antebellum South Presented by: Michele Rosenberg, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

• Economic Uncertainty and Structural ReformsPresented by: Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Queen Mary University of London

• Institutional SpecializationPresented by: Kevin Sheedy, London School of Economics

LABOUR FLOWS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

University Place - 3.211Chair: Stefan Schiman, WIFO

• On the (In)flexibility of Labor Market AdjustmentsPresented by: Chi Man Yip, University of Calgary

• The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General EquilibriumPresented by: Nikolaos Kokonas, University of Bath

• Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve - Empirical Evidence from EU EnlargementPresented by: Stefan Schiman, WIFO

LABOUR MARKET RISK

University Place - 2.219Chair: Piotr Denderski, University of Leicester

• Is Household Heterogeneity Important for Business Cycles?Presented by: Youngsoo Jang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

• Welfare Consequences of Rising Wage Risk in the United States: Self-Selection into Risky Jobs and Family Labor Supply AdjustmentsPresented by: Seonyoung Park, University of Delaware

• Job Search and Experimentation in the Standard Incomplete Markets ModelPresented by: Piotr Denderski, University of Leicester

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LABOUR MARKETS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

University Place - 4.205Chair: Brigitte Hochmuth, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

• Effects of a European Unemployment InsurancePresented by: David Vespermann, University of Heidelberg

• Labor Market Effects of Technology Shocks Biased toward the Traded SectorPresented by: Olivier Cardi, Lancaster University Management School

• Labor Market Reforms, Precautionary Savings, and Global ImbalancesPresented by: Brigitte Hochmuth, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

MACROPRUDENTIAL REGULATION AND POLITICS

University Place - 3.213Chair: Thomas Mosk, Goethe University Frankfurt and SAFE

• The Making of Financial Regulation - Voting on the U.S. CongressPresented by: Joao Rafael Cunha,

• Liquidity and Monetary Transmission: A Quasi-Experimental ApproachPresented by: Boromeus Wanengkirtyo, Bank of England

• Financial regulation: What the finance industry wants and how it gets itPresented by: Thomas Mosk, Goethe University Frankfurt and SAFE

MONETARY POLICY WITH FINANCIAL FRICTIONS

University Place - 2.217Chair: Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, BIS

• Employment and the Collateral Channel of Monetary PolicyPresented by: Angus Foulis, Bank of England

• Collateral Constrained Firms and Monetary PolicyPresented by: Cristina Manea, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

• Monetary policy hysteresis and the financial cyclePresented by: Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, BIS

PREFERENCES

University Place - 4.213Chair: Ingela Alger, Toulouse School of Economics

• A Dynamically Consistent Model of Reference-Dependent PreferencesPresented by: Peter Wikman, Toulouse School of Economics

• Preference intensity representation and revelationPresented by: Georgios Gerasimou, University of St Andrews

• Evolution of preferences in group-structured populations: genes, guns, and culturePresented by: Ingela Alger, Toulouse School of Economics

PUBLIC SECTOR ACCOUNTING

University Place - 4.211Chair: Sebastian Kunert, University of Duisburg-Essen

• Does Accrual Accounting Alter Fiscal Policy Decisions? - Evidence from GermanyPresented by: Désirée Christofzik, German Council of Economic Experts

• Paying over the odds at the end of the fiscal yearPresented by: Margaryta Klymak, University of Oxford

• International Trade Integration of the East and Local Government Budgets in GermanyPresented by: Sebastian Kunert, University of Duisburg-Essen

SHOCKS AND EXPECTATIONS

Jean McFarlane - 2.327Chair: Markus Kontny, GSEFM Frankfurt & University Hohenheim

• News-driven housing booms: Spain vs.GermanyPresented by: Laurentiu Guinea, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

• Shaking Preferences: Earthquakes and ImpatiencePresented by: Krisztina Molnar, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)

• Phillips Curves in Noisy Information ForecastsPresented by: Markus Kontny, GSEFM Frankfurt & University Hohenheim

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION

University Place - 3.209Chair: Fidel Perez Sebastian, University of Alicante

• The Aggregate Importance of Intermediate Input SubstitutabilityPresented by: Cian Ruane, International Monetary Fund, Research Department

• Income, Education and DemocracyPresented by: Anna Seim,

• Electricity Access and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil’s ElectrificationPresented by: Fidel Perez Sebastian, University of Alicante

THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF ICT

University Place - 2.220Chair: Filippo Boeri, London School of Economics

• Gender-specific benefits from ride-hailing apps: Evidence from Uber’s entry in ChilePresented by: Angela Munoz, Telecom ParisTech, Deloitte

• Human mobility and Internet usage: Evidence from Nigerian micro-level dataPresented by: Maurizio Strazzeri, University of Konstanz

• High-speed Broadband and Educational AchievementsPresented by: Filippo Boeri, London School of Economics

THE RISE OF POPULISM II

Williamson Building - Room G.03Chair: Manuel Funke, Kiel Institute

• The Impact of Election Information Shocks on Populist Party Preferences: Evidence from GermanyPresented by: Lena Gerling, University of Münster

• Making America Hate Again? Twitter and Hate Crime under TrumpPresented by: Carlo Schwarz, University of Warwick

• Populism: A Macroeconomic HistoryPresented by: Manuel Funke, Kiel Institute

TRADE AND THE LABOUR MARKET

University Place - 4.209Chair: Rui Costa, CEP LSE

• The Impact of Foreign Acquisitions on Wages and CompensationPresented by: Tuomas Kosonen, Labour Institute for Economic Research

• The Distributional Consequences of post-Brexit Trade Barriers in the UKPresented by: Agnes Norris Keiller, Institute for Fiscal Studies/University College London

• Trade and Worker DeskillingPresented by: Rui Costa, CEP LSE

WEALTH INEQUALITY

Williamson Building - Room G.47Chair: Si Cheng, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

• Housing Bubbles and Wealth Inequality. Evidence from Spain.Presented by: Clara Martinez-Toledano, Paris School of Economics

• Rent seeking worsens economic outcomes and increases wealth inequalityPresented by: Spyridon Lazarakis, University of Glasgow

• Financial Globalization vs. Income Inequality: The Surprising Role of Foreign Portfolio Flows in Taming the Top 1%Presented by: Si Cheng, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

ES SESSIONS

CRIME AND PUBLIC POLICIES

Jean McFarlane - 2.324Chair: Nicolas Grau, Universidad de Chile

• Cash and CrimePresented by: Ignacio Munyo, University of Montevideo

• Afraid to go to School? Estimating the Effect of Homicides on Human Capital InvestmentsPresented by: Livia Menezes, University of Leicester

• Juvenile Incarceration and Adult RecidivismPresented by: Nicolas Grau, Universidad de Chile

EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF FISCAL POLICY

University Place - 4.204Chair: Elliott Ash, ETH Zurich

• The Impact of Taxation on Auto Market: Evidence from ChinaPresented by: Xuan Wang, University of Michigan

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• Income redistribution effect of sequential personal income tax reforms: A microsimulation analysis in JapanPresented by: Takero Doi, Keio University and Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research

• Political frictions in local public finance: The case of property taxes in U.S. localitiesPresented by: Elliott Ash, ETH Zurich

FORECASTING IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE

University Place - 4.210Chair: Ekaterina (Katja) Smetanina, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

• Does Modeling a Structural Break Improve Forecast Accuracy?Presented by: Andreas Pick, Erasmus University Rotterdam

• Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic VariablesPresented by: Ana Beatriz Galvao, University of Warwick

• Consistent Inference for Predictive Regressions in Persistent Economic SystemsPresented by: Torben Andersen, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE

University Place - 3.205Chair: Zsofia Barany, Sciences Po, Paris

• Endogenous Input-Output Linkages and Structural ChangesPresented by: Yimei Zou, Institute for International Economics Studies, Stockholm University

• Structural Transformation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan AfricaPresented by: Margarida Duarte, University of Toronto

• Engines of Sectoral Labor Productivity GrowthPresented by: Zsofia Barany, Sciences Po, Paris

INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES AND CHOICE

University Place - 3.210Chair: Rachel Cassidy, Institute for Fiscal Studies

• Are Economists’ Preferences Psychologists’ Personality TraitsPresented by: Tomas Jagelka, Ecole Polytechnique-CREST

• Habits as Adaptations: An Experimental StudyPresented by: Ludmila Matyskova, University of Bonn

• Are the poor so present-biased?Presented by: Rachel Cassidy, Institute for Fiscal Studies

INFORMATION ACQUISITION AND DISCOVERY

University Place - 4.214Chair: Chad Fulton, Federal Reserve Board

• Competitive information discoveryPresented by: Michael Mandler, University of London Royal Holloway Coll

• Multivariate Rational InattentionPresented by: Jieran Wu, Zhejiang University

• The extensive margin of inattentionPresented by: Chad Fulton, Federal Reserve Board

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET PERFORMANCE

University Place - 3.212Chair: Anastasios Dosis, ESSEC Business School

• Is your Broadband really broad? Internet Speed, Labour Demand and Productivity Outcomes: Evidence from Italian FirmsPresented by: Fabrizio Colonna, Bank of Italy

• Fixed Price Equilibria on Peer-to-Peer Platforms: Lessons from Time-Based CurrenciesPresented by: Philemon Kraehenmann, University of St. Gallen

• The Ownership of DataPresented by: Anastasios Dosis, ESSEC Business School

LABOUR MARKET SEARCH AND MATCHING

Jean McFarlane - 2.326Chair: François Fontaine, Paris School of Economics

• Informal Contacts in Hiring: The Economics Job MarketPresented by: Michael Rose, Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition

• Search Across Local Labour MarketsPresented by: Panagiotis Nanos, University of Sheffield

THURSDAY

THURSDAY

• Wealth, Portfolios, and Unemployment DurationPresented by: François Fontaine, Paris School of Economics

MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE

University Place - 3.214Chair: Nina Boyarchenko, Federal Reserve Bank of New York nina.boyarchenko@ny.frb.org

• Liquidity And Private Information In Asset Markets: To Signal Or Not To SignalPresented by: Zijian Wang, University of Western Ontario

• The effects of trade size and market depth on immediate price impactPresented by: Heather Anderson, Monash University

• Flighty LiquidityPresented by: Nina Boyarchenko, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

SOCIAL CHOICE

University Place - 4.212Chair: Takashi Ui, Hitotsubashi University

• Restricted environments and incentive compatibility in interdependent values modelsPresented by: Dolors Berga, Universitat de Girona

• Random Mechanism Design on Multidimensional DomainsPresented by: Huaxia Zeng, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

• Belief-Free Preference AggregationPresented by: Takashi Ui, Hitotsubashi University

SPECIFICATION TESTS IN PANEL DATA

University Place - 4.206Chair: Koen Jochmans, University of Cambridge

• Specification Tests for Time-Varying Coefficient Panel ModelsPresented by: Alev Atak, City, University of London

• A Consistent LM Type Specification Test for Semiparametric Panel Data ModelsPresented by: Ivan Korolev, Binghamton University

• Testing for correlation in error-component modelsPresented by: Koen Jochmans, University of Cambridge

18:00 to 19:15FISHER-SCHULTZ LECTURE

University Place – Theatre B

• Causal and Structural Inference Powered by ML and AIPresenter: Victor Chernozhukov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Chair: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London

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FRIDAY 30TH AUGUST 2019

FRI

DAY

FRI

DAY

09:00 to 16:00Data Wrangling for Economists

with Stata and the Command Line - Workshop

University PlaceThis is a pilot Data Carpentry workshop for economists, covering an introduction to the command line, data wrangling in Stata, and effective coding practices in Stata. Topics include running do files from the command line, reading and writing various data formats, handling data quality (missing values, text data), transforming data using collapse, reshape and merge, and easy-to-read, modular coding with expressive variable names, commands and for loops. Bring your own laptop. You will engage in live coding and receive continuous feedback from instructors and other learners. Some familiarity with Stata is assumed, but no prior programming experience or econometrics background are needed. If necessary, a short-term license of Stata 15 will be provided. Space is limited, so please register at July 15 by emailing congress@eeassoc.org. The EEA is a supporting member of The Carpentries, a non-profit organisation providing researchers high-quality, domain-specific training covering the full lifecycle of data-driven research

09:00 to 12:30Griliches Lectures

University Place – 4.205/206

• Theory and Measurement in the Labour Market Topic

Speaker : Robert Shimer (University of Chicago)

We have seen an enormous increase in available labour market data in recent years, which in turn has encouraged the belief that we can understand the world by looking at data in a nonstructural or a theoretical way. These lectures will discuss recent research that critically assesses that view. Any approach to summarizing large datasets must make some assumption about which data moments are most informative. Assumptions that are convenient, such as linearity or additive separability, may be inconsistent with standard economic theory and may give misleading results if the standard theory is correct. These lectures will illustrate this with both microeconomic and macroeconomic applications, examining questions like the sorting of workers and firms, the determinants of unemployment duration, and shifts in the matching function over time.

09:00 to 10:30ERC Grant Proposal Writing

University Place - 2.220This session offers a mentoring and training workshop for ERC grant preparation. The session will start with a panel discussion on the ins and outs of ERC grant preparation, with the viewpoints of the ERC as well as recent successful ERC applicants. This will be followed by a hands-on session where potential applicants have the opportunity to discuss their application and strategy with recent ERC recipients, individually or in small groups.

Panel Members: Libertad Gonzalez (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE) Rachel Griffith (University of Manchester and

Institute for Fiscal Studies) Holger Herz (University of Fribourg) Small Group Sessions: Ruben Durante (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE) Libertad Gonzalez (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE) Rachel Griffith (University of Manchester and Institute for Fiscal Studies) Nezih Guner (CEMFI) Holger Herz (University of Fribourg) Kjetil Storesletten (University of Oslo)

09:00 to 10:30How to Provide and Receive Quality

Feedback in Academia: Strategies for Young EconomistsUniversity Place - 2.218

Feedback is an integral part of a successful academic career. The focus of this panel discussion will be on the ways of giving and receiving feedback in academia. We will look at different types of feedback and at the components of quality feedback.

Organizer: European Association of Young Economists (EAYE) Speakers: Heather Anderson (Monash University), Zohal Hessami (University of Mannheim), Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics and Political Science), Chiara Scotti (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) Moderation: Laura Castillo-Martínez (London School of Economics and Political Science), Anna Maria Koukal (University of Fribourg and Swiss Distance University)

11:00 to 13:00Causes and Consequences of Populism:

European Focus A Policy Relevant Discussion

University Place - 2.220The recent research in economics and political science on the causes and consequences of populism sheds some light (or lack thereof) for the future of policy making in European nations. Global problems require global solutions, while nationalist attitudes block European integration. The recent European elections show that participation can rebound if the fears of nationalism mobilizes sentiments as much as the fears that caused populism in the first place.

Speakers: Abdul Noury (NYU), Changing Political Cleavages in Advanced Democracies: Evidence from the European Parliament Andre Sapir (Université libre de Bruxelles), The 2019 European Election: Consequences for the New European leadership Ruben Durante (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE), Populism and the Use of Fear for Political Gain: Empirical Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak in the US Massimo Morelli (Bocconi University), Populism and the Double Effect of Shrinking Policy Space for European Nations

11:00 to 13:00Activating Economics Teaching

University Place - 2.218The session will be concerned with changes in the practice of economics teaching. We will be looking at various types of active teaching and learning that are emerging or increasingly used within economics teaching including motivational sequencing with the CORE curriculum, classroom games, the use of flipping and other uses of technology.

Speakers: Ralf Becker (University of Manchester), Alvin Birdi (University of Bristol) and Humberto Llavador (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

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MONDAY, 26 AUGUST 2019

12:30 to 14:00The Deaton Review

Inequalities in the 21st Century Challenges for Economics and for Policy

University Place – Theatre A

14:15 to 16:00Contributed Sessions 1

EEA SESSIONSAccess to Health Insurance, University Place - 1.219

Asset Prices and Politics, University Place - 4.211

Automation, AI and Growth, University Place - 3.204

Banks, Debt and Crisis, University Place - 3.213

Behavioural Game Theory and Experiments, University Place - 2.220

Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills: Learning, Attainment and Earnings, Kilburn Building - 1.5

Econometric Methods, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

Environmental Policy and Regulation I, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Experimental Finance, University Place - 2.217

Experimental Labour Economics, University Place - 2.219

Finance and the Real Economy, University Place - 4.213

Gender in the Labour Market, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

Housing and Local Labour Markets, University Place - 4.209

Inequality, University Place - 4.205

International Capital Flows, Jean McFarlane - G306 a

Monetary Policy Shocks: High Frequency Identification, University Place - 3.209

Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, University Place - 3.211

Protectionism, Kilburn Building - 1.4

Regulation and Information, Simon Building - Theatre D

Social Connections in Politics, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Structural Change and Regional Development , Jean McFarlane - 2.329

The Role of Oil and Fiscal Policy in the Business Cycle, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Trade Policy, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Unemployment and Labour Market Policies, Kilburn Building - 1.3

EEA SESSIONSData Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Forecasting, University Place - 3.212

Dynamic Games, University Place - 4.214

Fiscal Policy: Debt and Positive Issues, University Place - 3.205

Information and Mechanism Design, University Place - 4.204

International Financial Markets, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Labour Markets, Gender and Human Capital , Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Macroeconomics: Growth, University Place - 2.218

Political Economy of Education, University Place - 4.206

Political Polarization, University Place - 1.218

Productivity: Theory and Measurement, University Place - 3.210

Regulation and Market Outcomes, Jean McFarlane - 2.328

Semi/Nonparametric Methods, University Place - 3.214

Taxation and Labour Markets, University Place - 4.212

Volatility Models, University Place - 4.210

16:30 to 17:45Contributed Sessions 2

EEA SESSIONSBank Risk, University Place - 2.219

Bonds and Commodities, University Place - 2.217

Business Cycles, University Place - 3.204

Contracts and Organizations, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

Demography and Development , University Place - 4.213

Elderly Care, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Global Linkages , University Place - 1.219

Information Transmission in Networks, University Place - 4.209

Media of Information Transmission, University Place - 4.211

Misallocation and Mismatch, University Place - 3.209

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound, University Place - 3.211

Savings and Income Risks, University Place - 3.213

School and Home Inputs in Learning and Achievement, University Place - 2.220

Tax and Transfers, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Taxes, Regulation and Inequality, University Place - 4.205

Technology Adoption and Green Growth, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

The Economics of Immigration and Outmigration, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

ES SESSIONSAdvances in Estimation Methods, University Place - 3.212

Banking: Empirics, University Place - 2.218

Beliefs and Knowledge, University Place - 4.214

Climate and Environmental Economics I, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Contract Theory I, University Place - 1.218

General Equilibrium and Mathematical Economics, University Place - 4.204

Household Labour Supply and Retirement , University Place - 4.212

Identification and Estimation of Structural Models I, University Place - 3.205

Learning and Experimentation I, University Place - 4.206

Monetary Policy and Forward Guidance, University Place - 3.214

Macro-Finance I: Real and Financial Shocks, University Place - 3.210

Optimal Fiscal Policies, University Place - 4.210

18:00 to 19:15 EEA Schumpeter Lecture

University Place – Theatre A

TUESDAY, 27 AUGUST 2019

09:00 to 16:00EEA POSTER SESSION

University Place - The Drum

09:00 to 10:15Contributed Sessions 3

EEA SESSIONSBanks and Sovereign Debt, University Place - 4.209

Behavioural Decision Making, University Place - 3.213

Business Cycles and Incomplete Markets, University Place - 2.220

Climate Change - Discounting and Carbon Budgets, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

Financing Entrepreneurs, University Place - 4.205

Firm Dynamics Over The Business Cycle, University Place - 4.213

Gender Wage Differentials, University Place - 1.219

Housing and Mortgages, University Place - 2.217

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Dynamics, University Place - 2.219

Internalities, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

IO in Finance, University Place - 3.211

Local Public Finance I, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Mechanism Design and Implementation, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Media and Politics: Theory, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Migration, University Place - 4.211

Regulation and Mergers, University Place - 3.209

Search and Matching in Labour Markets, University Place - 3.204

ES SESSIONS

QUICK LOOK: OVERVIEW OF SESSIONS AND ROOMS Banking: Theory, University Place - 3.205

Climate and Environmental Economics II, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Contributions to Time Series Analysis, University Place - 4.204

Corporate Finance, University Place - 3.210

Efficient Mechanism Design, University Place - 4.210

Info-Metrics for Modelling and Inference, University Place - 4.206

Interest Rate Determinants, University Place - 3.212

Learning and Experimentation II, University Place - 4.212

Macroeconomics: Culture, Social Status and Aspirations  and  Inequality, University Place - 3.214

Misallocation and Micro-Development , Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Monetary Policy: Long Run Issues, University Place - 4.214

Sovereign Debt and Default, University Place - 2.218

10:45 to 12:45Invited Sessions 1

EEA SESSIONSAspirations, Skills, and Policies: Women’s Success in the Labour Market, Kilburn Building - 1.1

Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics, Simon Building - Theatre B

Capital Income and Taxes, Simon Building - Theatre E

Social Interactions in Political Economy, Simon Building - Theatre D

ES SESSIONSDecisions in Markets and Organizations, Simon Building - Theatre A

Experimental Economics, Simon Building - Theatre C

Micro and Macro Forecasting, University Place - Lecture Theatre A

13:00 to 14:00LUNCH SESSIONS

Communication, Expectations and Monetary Policy - University Place - Lecture Theatre A

Accounting for the Welfare of Nations – University Place 1.218

14:15 to 16:00Contributed Sessions 4

EEA SESSIONSBank’s Capital Structure and Regulation, University Place - 3.204

Causes and Consequences of Conflict and Violence, University Place - 2.220

Central Bank Asset Purchases, Kilburn Building - 1.5

Communication and Private Information, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Corruption and the Rise of Extremism, Simon Building - Theatre D

Credit Intermediation and Crises, University Place - 3.209

EIB Session on Investment, University Place - 3.211

Experiments on Morality, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

Fiscal Policy, Jean McFarlane - G306 a

Gender, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Health Determinants, Williamson Building - Room G.47

International Prices, University Place - 4.205

International Shock Transmission, University Place - 4.209

Macroeconomic and Financial Cycles, Jean McFarlane - 2.323

Minimum Wages and Low Pay, University Place - 3.213

Modelling Monetary Policy, Kilburn Building - 1.3

Monetary Policy and Housing, Kilburn Building - 1.4

Private-Public Sector Interactions, Jean McFarlane - 2.329

Retirement, University Place - 2.217

Returns to School Inputs and Policies, University Place - 2.219

Sovereign Debt, University Place - 4.211

Tax Evasion I, University Place - 4.213

Trading Firms, University Place - 1.219

Valuation, Preferences and Consequences of Pollution, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

ES SESSIONSAsset Pricing Econometrics, University Place - 4.210

Communication, University Place - 2.218

Econometrics of Macro Models, University Place - 4.212

Economics of Networks, University Place - 1.218

Empirical Asset Pricing, University Place - 4.214

Gains from Trade with Institutional and Market Frictions, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

High-Dimensional Econometrics, University Place - 4.204

History and Household, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Housing and Economic Fluctuations, University Place - 3.205

Migration and the Labour Market, University Place - 3.210

Monetary Policy and Asset Markets, University Place - 3.212

Repeated Games of Collusion: Empirical Analysis, University Place - 4.206

Theoretical Political Economy, University Place - 3.214

16:30 to 17:45Contributed Sessions 5

EEA SESSIONSClimate Change - Response to Climate Shocks, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Economic and Political Effects of Refugees’ Inflows, University Place - 3.211

Determinants and Stability of Preferences, University Place - 1.219

Fiscal Multipliers, University Place - 2.217

Global Banks, University Place - 3.204

Human Capital, Mismatch and Unemployment, University Place - 2.220

Incentives and Biases in Corporate Finance, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Incomplete Information and Search, University Place - 3.213

Interaction of Macroprudential Policy with Monetary Policy and Liquidity Regulation, University Place - 4.205

Intergenerational Mobility, University Place - 4.209

Local Public Finance II, University Place - 4.211

Media and Politics: Evidence, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Phillips Curves, University Place - 2.219

Public Policies and Development , University Place - 4.213

Rulers and Empires in Economic History, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

Trading Inputs, University Place - 3.209

ES SESSIONS

Advances in Microeconometrics, University Place - 4.204

Behavioural Finance, University Place - 4.212

Business Cycles Fluctuations and the Behaviour of Firms, University Place - 3.205

Financial Frictions, Financial Intermediation, and the Macroeocnomy, University Place - 3.210

Games with Incomplete Information, University Place - 3.212

Household, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Identification and Estimation of Structural Models II, University Place - 4.206

Networks, University Place - 3.214

Political Economy in Historical Perspective, University Place - 2.218

Peer Effects, University Place - 1.218

Quantile Models, University Place - 4.210

Search, Matching and Wage Determination, University Place - 4.214

18:00 to 19:15ES Presidential Address

University Place - Lecture Theatre B

WEDNESDAY, 28 AUGUST 2019

09:00 to 10:15 ES Laffont Lecture

University Place - Lecture Theatre B

10:45 to 12:45Contributed Sessions 6

EEA SESSIONSAsset Pricing and Risk Premium, University Place - 2.217

Birth Outcomes and Child Health, University Place - 2.219

92 93

Consumption and Houeshold Behaviour, University Place - 2.220

Culture, Persistance and Development, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

Education, Science and Technology in Economic History, Simon Building - Theatre D

Electoral Systems, Kilburn Building - 1.3

Employment Contracts, University Place - 3.204

Environmental Policy and Regulation II, Jean McFarlane - 2.329

Exchange Rates and International Spillovers, University Place - 3.209

Foreign Direct Investment, University Place - 3.211

Groups, Leadership and Gender, University Place - 1.219

Healthcare and Health, University Place - 3.213

Information in Markets, University Place - 4.205

Knowledge, Innovation, and R&D, University Place - 4.209

Labour Market Policy, Kilburn Building - 1.4

Law and Economics of Sanctions and Crime, University Place - 4.211

Monetary Policy Transmission, Williamson Building - Room G.03

New Approaches to Business Cycles, University Place - 4.213

Risk, Aspirations and Behaviour , Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Skill Demand, Jean McFarlane - 2.328

Wages, Williamson Building - Room G.47

What Works in Schools and Beyond?, Kilburn Building - 1.5

ES SESSIONSAggregate Dynamics of Frictional Labour Markets , University Place - 4.204

Choice and Preferences, University Place - 2.218

Collective Decision Making, University Place - 1.218

Health, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Heterogeneous Agents and Inequality, University Place - 4.206

Hypothesis Testing, University Place - 3.205

Industrial Organisation: Empirical Structural Models, University Place - 3.214

Macroeconomics: Consumption and Saving, University Place - 4.210

Macroeconomics: Government Policies, Income Distribution and Inequality, University Place - 4.212

Monetary Policy and Financial Markets, University Place - 4.214

Panel Data, University Place - 3.210

Partial Identification, University Place - 3.212

Rural/Urban/Industrial Development, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

13:00 to 14:00LUNCH SESSION

The Policy Impacts of Empirical Research – University Place – Lecture Theatre A

14:15 to 16:00EEA Contributed Sessions 7

EEA SESSIONSAltruism and Norms, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Boundedly Rational Investors and Asset Prices , University Place - 2.217

Collusion, University Place - 1.219

EAERE Session on Environmental Economics, Simon Building - Theatre D

Education, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Evaluation of Labour Market Policies, University Place - 2.219

Fertility and Children, University Place - 3.204

Financial Frictions and Business Cycles, University Place - 3.209

Forecasting Macro and Financial Variables, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

Gender Differentials in Education and the Labour Market, University Place - 3.211

Interactions, Jean McFarlane - 2.328

International Finance, University Place - 3.213

International Production, University Place - 4.205

Job Search, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Labour Supply, University Place - 4.209

Learning, Beliefs and Overconfidence, University Place - 4.213

Misallocation, Kilburn Building - 1.3

Optimal Monetary Policy, University Place - 4.211

Political Economy of Development , Jean McFarlane - 2.329

Politics and Fiscal Policies, University Place - 2.220

Public Procurement in Developing Countries, Simon Building - Theatre A

Relationship Lending and Access to Credit, Kilburn Building - 1.4

Retirement and Pensions I, Simon Building - Theatre C

Stress Testing, Kilburn Building - 1.5

Trade, Variety, and Inequality, Jean McFarlane - 2.323

ES SESSIONSComputational Problems and Machine Learning, University Place - 4.206

Education and Training: Policy Evaluation, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Empirical Political Economy, University Place - 1.218

Financial Systems and Regulation, University Place - 2.218

Fiscal Policy: Empirical Evidence on Multipliers, University Place - 3.214

Forecasting Financial Econometrics, University Place - 4.204

Identification of VAR Models, University Place - 4.212

Inference in Predictive Regressions and Factor Models, University Place - 4.214

Labour Markets Flows and Outcomes, University Place - 3.212

Matching, University Place - 3.205

Optimal Mechanisms, University Place - 3.210

Trade Policy and Trade Effects with Global Value Chains, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Treatment Effects, University Place - 4.210

16:30 to 17:45Contributed Sessions 8

Banks and the Central Bank, University Place - 1.219

Bounded Rationality and Learning, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

Consumption and Expectations, University Place - 2.217

Economics of Philanthropy: Experiments, University Place - 4.211

Environmental Policy and Regulation - Energy and Waste, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Exchange Rates and Finance, University Place - 3.211

Fiscal Policy and Firm Dynamics, University Place - 2.220

Global Inequality, University Place - 4.209

Ideology and Cooperation, University Place - 4.213

Investment Funds and Strategies, University Place - 3.204

Liquidity Regulation, University Place - 3.209

Robots and Trade, University Place - 3.213

Technology and Labour Shares, University Place - 2.219

The Rise of Populism I, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Transportation and Urban Economics, University Place - 4.205

ES SESSIONSDynamic Choice, University Place - 1.218

Gender and Age Gaps in the Labour Market, University Place - 2.218

Health Insurance, University Place - 4.204

Information Design, University Place - 3.214

Learning, University Place - 3.212

Macroeconomics: Human Capital, Education and Inequality, University Place - 3.210

Market Experiments, University Place - 4.206

Programme Evaluation, University Place - 4.214

Risk Management, University Place - 4.212

Search and Asymmetric Information , University Place - 3.205

Time Series Modelling with Regime Changes and Non-Gaussianities, University Place - 4.210

18:00 to 19:15EEA Presidential AddressUniversity Place - Lecture Theatre B

THURSDAY, 29 AUGUST 2019

09:00 to 10:15EEA Marshall Lecture

University Place - Lecture Theatre B

10:45 to 12:45Invited Sessions 2

EEA SESSIONSCompetition and Concentration, Simon Building - Theatre B

Gender and Development, Kilburn Building - 1.1

Surveys of Expectations and Their Use, Simon Building - Theatre E

Technological Innovation and Cities, Simon Building - Theatre D

ES SESSIONSAdvances in Empirical Analysis of Organizations, University Place - Lecture Theatre A

Decision Making within Organisations / Political Economy, Simon Building - Theatre A

New Methods for Sensitivity Analysis, Simon Building - Theatre C

14:15 to 16:00Contributed Sessions 9

EEA SESSIONSConsumer Search, Jean McFarlane - G306 a

Education Policies , Jean McFarlane - 2.328

Exchange Rates and the Real Economy, University Place - 4.205

Financial Frictions and Firms, Jean McFarlane - 2.325

Forward Guidance, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Gender and Marriage in Development, University Place - 3.209

Global Value Chains, University Place - 4.209

Home Ownership and Risks, University Place - 2.220

Inequality and Redistribution, University Place - 2.217

IO Theory, Jean McFarlane - 2.329

Labour Markets: Frictions and Technology, University Place - 3.213

Maternal Labour Supply, University Place - 3.204

Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Money in Politics: Campaign Contributions and Lobbying, University Place - 2.219

Retirement and Pensions II, Kilburn Building - 1.4

Schools and Neighbourhoods, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

Social Preferences, University Place - 1.219

Sovereign Debt and Default, University Place - 4.211

Systemic Risk, Banks and NonBanks, Williamson Building - Room G.47

Tax Evasion II, Kilburn Building - 1.3

Taxation and the Firm, Kilburn Building - 1.5

Trade Shocks, University Place - 4.213

Twenty Years of the Euro, Simon Building - Theatre D

Wages and Firms, University Place - 3.211

ES SESSIONSAggregate Volatility and Spillovers in Open Economies, University Place - 4.212

Behaviour in Games, University Place - 4.210

Contract Theory II, University Place - 4.204

Economic Conditions, Education Choices and Outcomes, University Place - 3.212

Industrial Organisation: Theory, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Macro-Finance II: Predictability and Discount Rates, University Place - 3.210

Methods for Evaluation of Financial Forecasts, University Place - 3.205

Minimum Distance Estimation, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity, University Place - 2.218

Optimal Monetary and Capital Account Policy, University Place - 4.214

Voting and Elections, University Place - 4.206

Welfare Economics, University Place - 3.214

16:30 to 17:45Contributed Sessions 10

EEA SESSIONSEnergy Consumption and Regulation, Jean McFarlane - G306 b

Expectations, Uncertainty and Cycles, University Place - 3.204

Institution Specialization and Change, University Place - 1.219

Labour Flows Over The Business Cycle, University Place - 3.211

Labour Market Risk , University Place - 2.219

Labour Markets in the Global Economy, University Place - 4.205

Macroprudential Regulation and Politics, University Place - 3.213

Monetary Policy with Financial Frictions, University Place - 2.217

Preferences, University Place - 4.213

Public Sector Accounting, University Place - 4.211

Shocks and Expectations, Jean McFarlane - 2.327

Structural Transformation, University Place - 3.209

The Economic and Social Consequences of ICT, University Place - 2.220

The Rise of Populism II, Williamson Building - Room G.03

Trade and the Labour Market, University Place - 4.209

Wealth Inequality, Williamson Building - Room G.47

ES SESSIONSCrime and Public Policies, Jean McFarlane - 2.324

Empirical Analyses of Fiscal Policy, University Place - 4.204

Forecasting in Economics and Finance, University Place - 4.210

Growth and Structural Change, University Place - 3.205

Individual Preferences and Choice, University Place - 3.210

Information Acquisition and Discovery, University Place - 4.214

Information Technology and Market Performance, University Place - 3.212

Labour Market Search and Matching, Jean McFarlane - 2.326

Market Microstructure , University Place - 3.214

Social Choice, University Place - 4.212

Specification Tests in Panel Data, University Place - 4.206

18:00 to 19:15ES Fisher-Schultz Lecture

University Place - Lecture Theatre B

FRI, 30 AUGUST 2019

09:00 to 16:00Data Wrangling for Economists with

Stata and the Command Line - Workshop (prior registration only)

University Place

09:00 to 12:30Griliches Lectures, Theory and

Measurement in the Labour Market,University Place – 4.205/206

09:00 to 10:30ERC Grant Proposal Writing

University Place – 2.220

How to Provide and Receive Quality Feedback in Academia: Strategies for

Young Economists, University Place – 2.218

11:00 to 13:00Causes and Consequences of Populism:

European FocusUniversity Place – 2.220

Activating Economics TeachingUniversity Place – 2.218

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CONFERENCE OVERVIEW SCHEDULE

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

09:00 to 10:15

Contributed Sessions

Laffont Lecture(UP Th B)Games with Incomplete Information: From Repetition to Cheap Talk and PersuasionFrancoise Forges (Université Paris-Dauphine)

Marshall Lecture(UP Th B)Improving Equality of Opportunity: New Insights from Big DataRaj Chetty (Harvard University)

Workshops and Panels

9am-4pm: Data Wrangling for Economists with Stata and the Command Line

9am-12pm: Grilliches Letcure, Theory and Measurement in the Labor Market (4.205/206)

9am-10.30am: How to Provide and Receive Quality Feedback in Academia: Strategies for Young Economists, EAYE (UP Th 2.218)

9am-10.30am: ERC Grant Proposal Writing (UP Th 2.220)

11am - 1pm: Activating Economics Teaching (UP Th 2.218)

11am - 1pm: Causes and Consequences of Populism, European Focus, A Policy Relevant Discussion (UP Th 2.220)

10:45 to 12:45

Invited Sessions Contributed Sessions

Invited Sessions

Lunch Session* 12:30 to 14:00: The Deaton Review: Inequalities in the 21st Century Challenges for Economics and for Policy(UP Th A)

13:00 to 14:00

Lunch Session* Communication, Expectations and Monetary Policy (UP Th A);* Welfare of Nations (UP 1.218)

Lunch Session* The Policy Impacts of Empirical Research(UP Th A)

14:15 to 16:00

Contributed Sessions

Contributed Sessions

Contributed Sessions

Contributed Sessions

16:30 to 17:45

Contributed Sessions

Contributed Sessions

Contributed Sessions

Contributed Sessions

18:00 to 19:15

Schumpeter Lecture (UP Th B)Household Balance Sheets and Credit CyclesVeronica Guerrieri (Chicago)

Award Presentation: Young Economist Award

ES Presidential Address (UP Th B)Coordination and Incomplete InformationStephen Morris (Princeton)

Award Presentation: ES Awards

EEA Presidential Address (UP Th B)Tax Progressively in MacroeconomicsKjetil Storesletten (Oslo)

Award presentation: Yrjö Jahnsson 2019 Award

Fisher-Schultz Lecture (UP Th B)Causal and Structural Inference Powered by ML and AIVictor Chernozhukov (MIT)

19:15: EEA Member's Meeting (UP Th B)

20:00 Conference Reception, Albert Hall

Gala Dinner, Emirates Old Trafford

NOTES

CAMPUS MAP

37 | University Place36 | Arthur Lewis Building59 | Simon Building52 | Williamson Building92 | Jean MacFarlane Building93 | George Kenyon BuildingKB | Kro BarCP | Crown Plaza Hotel

37

CP

KB

59

5292

93

36