phillip securities research pte ltd 05 may 2011...

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0085

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 05 May 2011

Singapore Strategy & Macro (Longer Term Outlook): � Singapore's mfg PMI accelerated from 50.1 to 52.5 while US Services PMI had

an unexpected and sharp deceleration from 57.3 to 52.8. Yesterday we warned correction is imminent on risk off price signals - bonds and USD rising, commodities selling, equities stall at resistance - add to that mix now slowing econ data on the whole. Having said that, within business cycles there are ebbs and flows, we still maintain that the larger trend is higher.

Technicals & Inter-market (Short/Intermediate Term Outlook): � The STI closed weaker on Wednesday down 39.81 points (1.26%) to close at

3,113.76. Volume was 1.27 billion shares worth $1.77 billion. Losers led gainers 348 to 127.

� The Shanghai Composite continued to decline, shedding 66.17 points (2.26%) and clearing recent swing lows at 2,871. The PBOC commented that it might continue to tighten monetary policy despite a moderating manufacturing reading. It cited its main goal as taming rising prices.

� In the US, the S&P 500 fell 9.30 points (0.69%) to close at 1,347.32. ISM Services (mentioned above), slowed coming in at 52.8 (expected: 57.9, prev: 57.3). ADP Non-Farm Employment Change also disappointed, coming in at 179k (expected: 200k, prev: 207k). The markets will be placing added emphasis on this Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report in light of last night’s data. Sentiment currently leans towards the bearish camp and risks are that NFP disappoints and increases the magnitude of the current (still small) risk-off. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks tonight at 9.30pm, the market should be watching his verbatim as usual.

� We note that the VIX has risen by about 17% in the past 4 days which is typically bearish. An uptrend in VIX would spell more trouble for stock markets. Commodities retreated as the market priced in fears that top commodity consumer, China, would continue tightening. The CRB closed lower at 358. 10 year note continues to advance, closing at 121-20.5.

� STI has gone risk-off as we warned in our commentary and technical report. Yesterdays lows tested 3,100 region as support (day low = 3,101), but popped slightly higher on the close to settle at 3,113, one point above the 200 day moving average at 3,112. The risk-off from the US session is anticipated to carry over into the Asian session today, implying a downward bias for the STI. Possibility of consolidation present as STI digests oversold intra-day readings and 200 day moving average. Resistance at 3,120/25, then 3,145/50. Support at 3,100, 3,075/80, then 3,050.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 3113.76 -39.81 -1.26P/E (x) 11.05P/Bv (x) 1.64

2.75Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

5/4 8/4 11/4 2/4 5/4

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 05 May 2011

2

Hong Kong � Local stocks slumped yesterday, extending its losing streak for 6 days and

dragging the benchmark index below 100MA, as selling spree continued following the slump of mainland market due to the PBOC’s open market operation and expected further tightening measures. Commodities producers and energy stocks under-performed. The HSI and HSCEI lost 318 points and 239 points to 23315 and 12866 at the close. Market turnover was slightly higher and reached 77.9 billion.

� Local market is expected to open lower and fluctuate within a relatively tight range following the slip yesterday. Trading buy is recommended for those defensive stocks like utility stocks, especially the mainland electricity companies because of the expected tariff hike. Expected supporting level of the benchmark index this week would be 23300. Expected support and resistance today are 23150 and 23400-450 respectively.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 23315.24 -318.01 -1.35P/E (x) 12.30P/Bv (x) 1.79

2.72Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

5/4 8/4 11/4 2/4 5/4

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand � Thailand markets are closed for holiday.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1073.87 3.44 0.32P/E (x) 14.07P/Bv (x) 2.07

3.61Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

5/4 8/4 11/4 2/4 5/4

Source: Bloomberg


3

Hong Kong Intime Department Store—Company Update Last Close: HK$ 11.68 12-M Target Price: HK$ 15.00 Rating: Buy � Better-than-expected results in FY10. (1) Primarily due to the strong SSSG and the inclusion of the new stores opened in the year 2009,

its revenue grew 45.6% YOY to RMB2.29 billion and net profit grew 48.1% to RMB690 million. (2) Despite of the decline in commission rate of concessionaires and direct sales margin, Intime done well in controlling expense with operating expense rate declining by 7.7 percentage points which improved its net profit margin to 29.94% from 29.42% in 2009.

� Maturing stores boost higher SSSG. Intime’s SSSG continued to rebound in FY10 reaching 18.2%. According to latest sales data, in 1Q2011 its SSSG jumps to 27.20%. We believe, as newly established stores continue to perform, its SSSG in 2011 is expected to exceed 2010.

� Network expansion fires up continuous growth potential. According to managements’ expansion plan, its adjusted GFA will reach 1822679 sqm by the end of 2013 with a CAGR of 33.32%. In addition to extensively penetrate Zhejiang where it has owned absolute predominance, Intime’s expansion focuses on such Midwest regions as Anhui, Hubei and Shanxi where there is huge potential to explore in economy and consumption.

� Raise TP to HK$15.00 and reiterate BUY. According to our DCF model, we get Intime’s intrinsic value per share is HK$15.63. We give it leading PE of 19x on expected EPS of 2012 with 12-month target price of HK$15.90. Taking the two methods into consideration, we conservatively raise its 12-momth target price to HK$15.00, 28% higher than current price and reiterate BUY.

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4

Market News

US � Signs of weakness in the U.S. economic recovery mounted as reports on Wednesday showed a sharp slowdown in the vast services

sector and less hiring by private companies in April. Economists expressed disappointment ahead of a key labor market report on Friday that is also expected to show payroll growth eased last month. Higher gasoline prices and slower economic growth in the first quarter likely weighed on the world's biggest economy and tempered hiring. Worries about rising fuel and commodity prices showed up in the latest gauge of the vast U.S. services sector, which grew at its slowest pace since August 2010, the Institute for Supply Management said. The U.S. economy last August was in a soft patch caused by worries about the euro zone's deep debt crisis. The purchasing managers' index fell to 52.8 last month from 57.3 in March. The new orders index in the April survey tumbled to its lowest level since December 2009, a worrying sign for the service sector's outlook, economists said. New orders dropped to 52.7 from 64.1. (Source: Reuters)

� The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell in April to the lowest monthly amount for the year so far and were outpaced by a rise in

plans to hire, a report on Wednesday showed. Employers announced 36,490 planned job cuts last month, down 12 percent from 41,528 in March, according to a report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. It was the lowest monthly total of the year and the third lowest over the past 16 months. Job cuts were down nearly 5 percent from year-ago planned layoffs of 38,326. Since January, employers have announced 167,239 job cuts. (Source: Reuters)

� U.S. inflation remains well under control, despite the spike in oil prices, but the Federal Reserve stands ready to raise interest rates if

price pressures appear to be getting out of hand, top Fed officials said on Wednesday. John Williams, in his first speech as president of the San Francisco Fed, argued that the recent spike in commodity costs will likely be transitory. "The economy today faces many pitfalls, but I don't believe that runaway inflation is one of them," Williams said, adding that he would not prejudge a possible need for additional bond purchases in the future. (Source: Reuters)

Singapore � Singapore’s manufacturing economy grew for a seventh straight month in April and at a faster pace than the previous month. At 52.5 -

the highest reading since December 2009 - Singapore's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April was 2.4 points above March's reading. The monthly PMI is based on survey responses of purchasing executives in 150 industrial companies, compiled by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below points to a contraction. The increase in the overall PMI was attributed to first-time expansions in new orders and production output as well as higher levels in new export orders and inventory. (Source: BT Online)

� With the economic recovery in full swing, the tourism industry is similarly experiencing a boom, giving rise to a manpower shortage

especially in the travel services sector. Increasing demand for new leaders in the sector, coupled with a rise in the foreign workers' levy - from $160 to $200 per 'higher skilled' worker in 2012 - is causing the industry to turn to young Singaporeans to plug the gap. A first step towards easing this shortage was introduced yesterday as the National Association of Travel Agents Singapore (NATAS) signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Temasek Polytechnic to promote the travel services sector among youth. Under this collaboration, a three-phase framework will be implemented to attract and develop talent to the sector. Students from the Diploma in Hospitality and Tourism Management can take up internships with NATAS, and promising students will be assisted with job placements upon graduation. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region � The yen and dollar strengthened against most major counterparts on speculation China will introduce additional tightening measures to

combat inflation, boosting demand for safer assets. China’s central bank said in a report yesterday that taming inflation is its highest priority, signaling more tightening is possible even after a manufacturing survey showed growth may be moderating in Asia’s biggest economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

� Drought in China may curb wheat production in the Hubei Province, Xinhua News Agency said, citing Governor Wang Guosheng. The

drought has hurt 1.33 million hectares (3.29 million acres) of farmland in seven provinces, including Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi, according to Xinhua. In Jiangxi Province, in the country’s grain belt, 253 millimeters (10 inches) of rain has fallen in the past four months, 53 percent less than the previous year, Xinhua reported. (Source: Bloomberg)

Thailand � Thailand markets are closed for holiday.


5

Dollar Index 73.13 +0.02%

70

75

80

85

90

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1516.33 +0.05%

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11 5/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 109.24 -1.63%

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 3.2158 -0.00%

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11 5/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

FSSTI 3113.76 -1.26%

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 12723.58 -0.66%

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

HSI 23315.24 -1.35%

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

SET 1073.87 +0.32%

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

05/06/10 08/06/10 11/06/10 02/06/11

Source: Bloomberg


6

JCI 3814.928 +0.03%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

3800

4050

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2866.017 -2.26%

2300

2700

3100

3500

5/5/10 8/5/10 11/5/10 2/5/11

Source: Bloomberg


7

Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +0.74 +8.60 1174.17 ALL ORDINARIES INDX -0.45 -21.50 4792.30

HANG SENG INDEX -1.35 -318.01 23315.24 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX -0.59 -81.05 13611.32

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX +0.03 +1.06 3814.93 FTSE 100 INDEX -1.62 -98.81 5984.07

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI -0.20 -3.04 1528.43 CAC 40 INDEX -1.31 -53.71 4043.13

KOSPI INDEX -0.91 -20.09 2180.64 DAX INDEX -1.69 -126.77 7373.93

NIKKEI 225 +1.57 +154.46 10004.20 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -0.66 -83.93 12723.58

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX +0.32 +3.44 1073.87 S&P 500 INDEX -0.69 -9.30 1347.32

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -2.26 -66.17 2866.02 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -0.47 -13.39 2828.23

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX +0.01 +1.27 8947.35 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS +0.07 +0.37 554.51

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -0.35 -65.33 18469.36

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

2.08 -1.89 -0.04 256,262,600 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

2.08 -1.89 -0.04 123,218,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

14.76 -0.67 -0.10 117,475,300 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.65 -1.52 -0.01 122,962,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

11.48 -1.88 -0.22 99,140,680 DYNA-MAC HOLDINGS LTD

0.63 +6.78 +0.04 43,699,000

OCBC BANK 9.23 -1.60 -0.15 84,262,060 NOBLE GROUP LTD 2.12 -1.40 -0.03 39,241,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

2.12 -1.40 -0.03 83,509,440 GALLANT VENTURE LTD

0.45 +3.49 +0.02 28,986,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.65 -1.52 -0.01 79,916,300 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

3.09 -0.96 -0.03 22,664,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

19.44 -0.72 -0.14 71,475,820 OCEANUS GROUP LTD

0.27 +3.85 +0.01 21,117,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

3.09 -0.96 -0.03 70,398,360 CAPITALAND LTD 3.27 -1.51 -0.05 19,455,000

CAPITALAND LTD 3.27 -1.51 -0.05 63,421,620 COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD

2.16 +0.47 +0.01 19,155,000

SINGAPORE EXCH 7.56 -1.43 -0.11 53,835,360 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

1.73 -0.57 -0.01 17,576,000

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg


8

Hong Kong


CHINA CONST BA-H 7.17 -1.65 -0.12 2,880,510,000 SEMICONDUCTOR MA

0.740 -3.90 -0.03 584,658,039

IND & COMM BK-H 6.42 -1.98 -0.13 1,688,916,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

7.170 -1.65 -0.12 401,299,770

TENCENT HOLDINGS

210.60 -3.39 -7.40 1,495,864,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 4.220 -1.63 -0.07 352,091,039

BANK OF CHINA-H 4.22 -1.63 -0.07 1,489,666,000 IND & COMM BK-H 6.420 -1.98 -0.13 262,469,964

HSBC HLDGS PLC 83.95 -0.47 -0.40 1,464,750,000 GCL-POLY ENERGY

5.140 -5.69 -0.31 227,307,422

CHINA LIFE INS-H 27.15 -1.45 -0.40 1,323,909,000 AGRICULTURAL-H 4.490 -1.54 -0.07 153,965,733

PETROCHINA CO-H 10.84 -1.45 -0.16 1,267,737,000 CHINA PETROLEU-H

7.570 -1.82 -0.14 133,930,324

PING AN INSURA-H 81.85 -2.96 -2.50 1,234,690,000 CHINA LUMENA NEW

4.130 -1.43 -0.06 125,731,700

CNOOC LTD 18.78 -2.59 -0.50 1,211,870,000 PETROCHINA CO-H

10.840 -1.45 -0.16 117,075,155

GCL-POLY ENERGY 5.14 -5.69 -0.31 1,165,901,000 SHANGHAI ELECT-H

4.060 +4.64 +0.18 104,560,413


Thailand


PTT PCL 361.00 -0.82 -3.00 2,275,093,000 RAIMON LAND PCL

1.18 +21.65 +0.21 1,291,764,600

BANGKOK BANK PUB

164.00 +1.23 +2.00 2,090,612,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

3.72 +2.20 +0.08 338,976,700

PTT AROMATICS 40.00 +0.63 +0.25 2,081,139,000 SUSCO PUB CO LTD

1.42 -5.96 -0.09 288,692,300

RAIMON LAND PCL 1.18 +21.65 +0.21 1,415,495,000 GEN ENVIRON CONS

0.60 +7.14 +0.04 230,166,600

PTT EXPL & PROD 178.50 -1.38 -2.50 1,406,308,000 HEMARAJ LAND DEV

2.28 +0.00 +0.00 202,544,300

JASMINE INTL PCL 3.72 +2.20 +0.08 1,264,684,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.76 +1.33 +0.01 199,016,000

BANPU PUB CO LTD 726.00 -0.55 -4.00 1,042,507,000 QUALITY HOUSES 2.26 +0.00 +0.00 133,296,500

BANGCHAK PETROLE

21.80 +6.86 +1.40 974,857,000 IRPC PCL 6.00 +1.69 +0.10 126,254,900

BANGKOK BANK-F 163.50 +0.62 +1.00 916,965,000 ASIAN MARINE SER

1.18 +0.85 +0.01 112,868,400

CHAROEN POK FOOD

29.75 +1.71 +0.50 879,257,000 TMB BANK PCL 2.24 +0.00 +0.00 97,121,500



9

Indonesia


BUMI RESOURCES 3575.00 +2.88 +100.00 962,301,700,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER

75.00 +11.94 +8.00 1,819,035,000

BANK MANDIRI 7200.00 -1.37 -100.00 241,666,500,000 ENERGI MEGA PERS

166.00 -0.60 -1.00 455,328,500

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6400.00 -0.78 -50.00 214,527,000,000 BUMI RESOURCES

3575.00 +2.88 +100.00 274,799,000

PERUSAHAAN GAS N

4150.00 +0.61 +25.00 189,154,600,000 BAKRIELAND DEV

145.00 +0.69 +1.00 272,638,000

ASTRA INTERNATIO 56400.00 +0.45 +250.00 113,096,000,000 BAKRIE SUMATERA

405.00 +2.53 +10.00 75,913,000

UNITED TRACTORS 24300.00 +3.62 +850.00 103,555,400,000 LIPPO KARAWACI

770.00 -1.28 -10.00 70,660,500

TELEKOMUNIKASI 7650.00 -0.65 -50.00 102,126,500,000 TRADA MARITIME

590.00 +0.00 +0.00 69,878,500

BANK CENTRAL ASI 7350.00 +1.38 +100.00 95,324,320,000 BENAKAT PETROLEU

122.00 -8.27 -11.00 54,115,000

ADARO ENERGY TBK

2250.00 +1.12 +25.00 92,793,480,000 PERUSAHAAN GAS N

4150.00 +0.61 +25.00 45,651,500

INDOCEMENT TUNGG

16600.00 -2.06 -350.00 83,398,240,000 MULTIPOLAR TBK P

275.00 +3.77 +10.00 43,926,500



10

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ +0.05 +0.77 1,516.33 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7547 1.0755

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ -0.82 -0.32 39.34 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.7782 0.9588

Bloomberg West Texas Intermedi -1.63 -1.81 109.24 EURO 0.5466 1.4849

BRITISH POUND 0.4913 1.6518 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8117 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.2710 6.4935

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard -0.59 -8.00 1345.75 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.3060 7.7690

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) +0.69 +23.00 3373.00 JAPANESE YEN 65.3600 80.5200

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 872.3316 1074.8000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4164 2.9770

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.02 +0.02 73.13 THAI BAHT 24.3568 30.0600


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01

6 Months 0.05 0.06 0.10 0.11

2 Years 0.58 0.59 0.64 0.75

3 Years 0.97 0.98 1.07 1.21

5 Years 1.94 1.94 2.01 2.19

10 Years 3.22 3.24 3.35 3.42

30 Years 4.32 4.35 4.45 4.48

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 3.21

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 2.64

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

5/5/11 Nonfarm Productivity 1Q P 1.1% 2.6% 5/5/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A

5-May - - 44000

5/5/11 Unit Labor Costs 1Q P 0.8% -0.6% 5/5/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B

5-May - - 56801

5/5/11 Initial Jobless Claims 30-Apr 410K 429K 5/5/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

5-May - - 56001

5/5/11 Continuing Claims 23-Apr 3650K 3641K 09-07 MAY Foreign Reserves APR - - $233.37B

5/5/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

1-May -45.0 -45.1 5/13/11 Retail Sales Ex Auto MAR - - -3.5%

05-06 MAY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

APR - - 2.0% 5/13/11 Retail Sales (YoY) MAR - - -12.1%

5/6/11 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

APR 185K 216K 5/13/11 Retail Sales (MoM) sa MAR - - -3.6%

5/6/11 Change in Private Payrolls

APR 200K 230K 5/16/11 Electronic Exports (YoY) APR - - -13.8%

5/6/11 Change in Manufact. Payrolls

APR 20K 17K 5/16/11 Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)

APR - - 10.0%

5/6/11 Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp

APR 0.20% 0.0%

5/16/11 Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM)

APR - - -2.9%



11

Thailand Hong Kong

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

5/06/11 Forward Contracts 29-Apr

- - - - 5/05/11 Purchasing Managers Index APR - - 54.9

5/06/11 Foreign Reserves 29-Apr

- - - - 5/13/11 GDP sa (QoQ) 1Q - - 1.5%

5/12/11 Consumer Confidence Economic

APR - - 71 5/13/11 GDP (YoY) 1Q - - 6.2%

5/13/11 Forward Contracts 6-May - - - - 5/19/11 Unemployment Rate SA APR - - 3.4%

5/13/11 Foreign Reserves 6-May - - - - 5/19/11 Composite Interest Rate APR - - 0.2%

16-20 MAY

Total Car Sales APR - - 93008 5/23/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

APR - - 4.6%

5/20/11 Forward Contracts 13-May

- - - - 5/26/11 Trade Balance APR - - -40.1B

5/20/11 Foreign Reserves 13-May

- - - - 5/26/11 Exports YoY% APR - - 21.5%

20-25 MAY

Customs Exports (YoY) APR - - 30.9% 5/26/11 Imports YoY% APR - - 18.8%

20-25 MAY

Customs Imports (YoY) APR - - 28.4% 5/31/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY) APR - - - -


Indonesia

Date Statistic For Survey Prior

04-10 MAY

Foreign Reserves APR - - $105.71B

04-10 MAY

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) APR - - 886.85T

5/5/11 GDP Constant Price (YoY) 1Q 6.56% 6.90%

5/5/11 GDP Constant Price (QoQ) 1Q 1.65% -1.40%

09-13 MAY

Money Supply - M1 (YoY) MAR - - 19.60%

09-13 MAY

Money Supply - M2 (YoY) MAR - - 17.10%

5/12/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

12-May

6.75% 6.75%

23-27 MAY

Total Local Auto Sales APR - - 82058

23-27 MAY

Total Motorcycle Sales APR - - 710635

6/1/11 Total Trade Balance APR - - $1813M

Source: Bloomberg

PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or

absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

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suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of

that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent

verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a

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suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in

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transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent

determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein

with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to

purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any

registered prospectus in respect of such security.

Disclosure of Interest

Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as

an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report.

Firm’s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered

in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no

executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation.

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© 2011 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited

Phillip Capital – Regional Member Companies

SINGAPORE

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00

Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631

Website : www.poems.com.sg

MALAYSIA

Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd

B-2-6 Megan Avenue II 12 Jln Yap Kwan Seng 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel : (603) 2166 8099 Fax : (603) 2166 5099

Website : www.poems.com.my

HONG KONG

Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd

11-12/F United Centre 95 Queensway, Hong Kong

Tel : (852) 2277 6600 Fax : (852) 2868 5307

Website : www.poems.com.hk

THAILAND

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co Ltd

15/F, Vorawat Building 849 Silom Road

Bangkok Thailand 10500 Tel : (622) 635 7100 Fax : (622) 635 1616

Website : www.poems.in.th

JAPAN

The Naruse Securities Co Ltd

4-2, Nihonbashi Kabutocho Chuo Ku, Tokyo Japan 103-0026

Tel : (81) 03-3666-2101 Fax : (81) 03-3664-0141

Website : www.naruse-sec.co.jp

UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd

6th Floor, Candlewick House

120 Cannon Street London EC4N 6AS

Tel : (44) 207 426 5950 Fax : (44) 207 626 1757

Website : www.kingandshaxson.com

Regional Member Companies

SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631 Website: www.poems.com.sg

MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 21628841 Fax (603) 21665099 Website: www.poems.com.my

HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax (852) 28685307 Websites: www.phillip.com.hk

JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, 2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014 Tel (81-3) 35953631 Fax (81-3) 35953630 Website:www.phillip.co.jp

INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia Tel (62-21) 57900800 Fax (62-21) 57900809 Website: www.phillip.co.id

CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code 200001 Tel (86-21) 51699200 Fax (86-21) 63512940 Website: www.phillip.com.cn

THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999 Fax (66-2) 22680921 Website www.phillip.co.th

FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33-1) 45633100 Fax (33-1) 45636017 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) 7426 5950 Fax (44-20) 7626 1757 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel +1.312.356.9000 Fax +1.312.356.9005

AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) 96298380 Fax (613) 96148309 Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au

phillip securities research pte ltd 05 may 2011...

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