phnom penh · 2019-10-14 · cbre cambodia 3 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000...
TRANSCRIPT
PHNOM PENH
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2019Q2PRESENTED BY
JAMES HEWSON, MANAGER
CBRE CAMBODIA
CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT
CONDOMINIUM
OFFICE
RETAIL
SERVICED APARTMENT
CONTENT
3CBRE CAMBODIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2E
No.
of Pro
jects
Million U
SD
Construction Investment Value No. of Projects
INVESTMENT INTO CONSTRUCTION
H1 2019 FORECAST
INVESTMENT VALUE PROJECTED TO REACH $4.8B
Source: Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction
$2.7Billion OF INVESTMENT VALUE FROM JAN – APR 2019
APPROX. 1,900 PROJECTSANTICIPATED OVER THECOURSE OF H1 2019
1,325 PROJECTS APPROVEDFROM JAN – APR 2019
INVESTMENT INTO CONSTRUCTION
CONDOMINIUM
OFFICE
RETAIL
SERVICED APARTMENTS
5CBRE CAMBODIA
8 NEW LAUNCHES OVER THE COURSE OF Q2 2019C O N D O M I N I U M
HCN MALL & RESIDENCECHIP MONG PARKLAND TKURBAN VILLAGE – PHASE 2ROYAL PLATINUMLA VISTA ONE
CPEC ROMAN GARDEN CONDO RS CONDOVERSAILLES SQUARE
MORE THAN
5,800 UNITS LAUNCHED OVER THE COURSE OF Q2 2019
6CBRE CAMBODIA
1,393 UNITS COMPLETED OVER Q2C O N D O M I N I U M
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Affordable Mid-Range High-End % Change
AFFORDABLESEGMENT28%
5 PROJECTS
HIGH-END SEGMENT72%
Q2 COMPLETIONS
(1,393 UNITS)
SUPPLY INCREASE9.13%
SHARE OF NEW COMPLETIONS
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
7CBRE CAMBODIA
SALES PRICES: LESS THAN 1% DOWNWARDC O N D O M I N I U M
$1,250
$1,750
$2,250
$2,750
$3,250
$3,750
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Affordable Mid-Range High-End
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTQ-O-Q FOR HIGH-ENDAND MID-RANGE SEGMENT1%
LESS THAN
Q-O-Q CHANGES
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTQ-O-Q FOR AFFORDABLE SEGMENT
1.9%
$1,501 $2,568 $3,254
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQM BY SEGMENT
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
8CBRE CAMBODIA
RENTAL RATES SAW SLIGHT UPWARD CORRECTIONC O N D O M I N I U M
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
3BR 2BR 1BR Studio
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR
Rental Range Per Month (High-End)
Average Rent Per Sqm
High-End Mid-Range
Rental Range Per Month (Mid-Range)
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTFOR HIGH-END SEGMENT3%
Q2 2019
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTFOR MID-RANGE4.3%
14.61/SQM
12.0/SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
INVESTMENT INTO CONSTRUCTION
CONDOMINIUM
OFFICE
RETAIL
SERVICED APARTMENTS
10CBRE CAMBODIA
SQM (NLA)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,0002
00
9
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy Rate
CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE SUPPLYO F F I C E
OCCUPANCY RATEBY Q2 2019 86.5%
Q1GRADE C
190,565 SQM
GRADE-C OFFICE SUPPLY SAW A DECREASE OF 5.9%
Q2GRADE C
179,309 SQM
OF CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE SPACE BY Q2 2019359,000 SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
11CBRE CAMBODIA
CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE RENTS Q2 2019 O F F I C E
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Grade-B (CBD) Grade-B (NCBD) Grade-C (CBD) Grade-C (NCBD)
RENTS WITHIN CBD
1%LESS THAN
4.7%
-2.6%
4.2%
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
12CBRE CAMBODIA
STRATA-TITLE OFFICE SUPPLYO F F I C E
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
20
21
F
20
22
F
Grade B Grade A
SQM (NLA)
STAR CITY
NEW COMPLETION
SUPPLY INCREASE
51%
CURRENT STRATA-TITLE SUPPLY40,500 SQM
NEW ANNOUNCEMENT
VERSAILLESSQUARE
11,260 SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
13CBRE CAMBODIA
3
6
4
5
8
9
11
2
1. CHIEF TOWER
2. DOWNTOWN 93
3. ONE PARK
4. TK CENTRAL
5. FORTUNE TOWER
6. C5 OLYMPIA CITY
7. MARITIME TOWER
8. SOMA GROUP HQ
9. CHIP MONG BAKTOUK COMMERCIAL CENTER
10. THE GATEWAY
11. THE COMMUNE
12. THE POINT
13. VERSAILLES SQUARE
9
10
Strata-title
12
1
713
CENTRALLY OWNED STRATA TITLE
MAP OF FUTURE OFFICE SUPPLYO F F I C E
CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT
CONDOMINIUM
OFFICE
RETAIL
SERVICED APARTMENTS
15CBRE CAMBODIA
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Shopping Mall Shopping Center Community Mall Retail Podium
RETAIL SUPPLYR E T A I L
NEW COMPLETIONS
MiDTOWN MALL
INCREASE IN TOTAL SUPPLY7%
OLYMPIA MALL
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
16CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL AVERAGE ASKING RENTS FELLR E T A I L
$30.5$28.5
$23.7
$26.5
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
Prime Shopping Mall Prime Retail Podium Community Mall Prime High Street
DECREASE FORRETAIL PODIUM4%
DECREASE FORCOMMUNITY MALL5.7%INCREASE FORSHOPPING MALL4%
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
* Prime quoted rents for ground and 1st floor
space
17CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL VACANCY THE LOWEST IN 10 YEARSR E T A I L
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
DOWNWARD ADJUSTOF VACANCY RATE
1.1%
CURRENT VACANCY RATE
7.9%
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT
CONDOMINIUM
OFFICE
RETAIL
SERVICED APARTMENTS
19CBRE CAMBODIA
SUPPLY OF SERVICED APARTMENT H1 2019S E R V I C E D A P A R T M E N T
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Grade A Grade B % Change
SUPPLY OF SERVICED APARTMENT
APPROX. 2,500 UNITS
NEW COMPLETIONS
ALPHA RESIDENCE
THE VIEWAPARTMENT
34% INCREASE
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
20CBRE CAMBODIA
ASKING RENTS OF SERVICED APARTMENTS E R V I C E D A P A R T M E N T
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR Penthouse
Rental Range Per Month (Grade A)
Grade A Grade B
Rental Range Per Month (Grade B)
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Penthouse 3BR 2BR 1BR Studio
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
21CBRE CAMBODIA
SERVICED APARTMENT DISTRIBUTIONS E R V I C E D A P A R T M E N T
38%
26%
14%
4%
6%
12%
BKK1
Daun Penh
Tonle Bassac
Tuol Kork
Tuol Tumpoung
Others
THE VAST MAJORITY OFGRADE A AND GRADE BSERVICED APARTMENT SUPPLYIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRALREGIONS OF PHNOM PENH.
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2019
James Hodge
Associate Director
M: +855 89 333 722
© 2019 Advantage Property Services Co., Ltd, trading as CBRE Cambodia, part of the CBRE affiliate network. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, includingprojections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independentlyassessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior expresswritten permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
CBRE Cambodia | +855 23 964 099 | [email protected] | www.cbre.com.kh
T H A N K Y O U !
James Hewson
Manager
M: +855 85 333 228
Kinkesa Kim
Senior Analyst
M: +855 95 777 582
RESEARCH & CONSULTING
For more info, please contact: