phoenix metro residential real estate annual report

Victoria Felice PresentsPhoenix Metro Residential Real Estate

Annual Changes from November 5, 2014 to November 5, 2015

This report is presented by Victoria Felice, Realtor ® courtesy of Cromford Report

Victoria Felice - Associate Broker, GRI, SRS - Berkshire Hathaway Home Services - 602-359-5432


Phoenix Metro Residential Real Estate



With the exception of Avondale and Peoria, 15 out of 17 cities have weaker markets for sellers than one month ago.

8 cities are now in the balanced zone and 3 more are only slightly above 110 indicating a seller's market.



The cities with weakest trend over the last month are: Paradise Valley - down 21% Goodyear - down 13% Scottsdale - down 12% Maricopa - down 11% Gilbert - down 10%




The situation today is not looking quite as negative as this table suggests since the last 7 days have seen a halt to the weakening CMI trend in a few cities. These include

Gilbert, Chandler and Tempe.

The speedy decline of Paradise Valley reflects weakness in the market above $1 million. Between $500,000 and $1 million demand is holding up better

thanks to a good supply of jumbo financing to qualified buyers.




November 18 - Home ownership rates in the USA have fallen dramatically from 2005 to 2015, but 2005 was an exceptional year when the housing bubble was in full swing.

Many people bought homes in 2005 using 100% (or even 110%) financing and never even made the first payment. It seems unfair to count them as real homeowners. It is therefore not a useful year for fair comparisons. Let us use 1995 as a more realistic baseline.

Using census data, we see that the overall homeowner ship rate has dropped from 64.7% to 63.4% of the population. But things are not quite as simple as that.




Despite the overall decrease, the home ownership rate has increased since 2Q 1995 for EVERY major subgroup by race/ethnicity, as follows:

Non-Hispanic white homeowner ship has increased from 70.2% to 71.6% Black home ownership has increased from 42.6% to 43.0% All other census defined races except the above (Asian, Native American, Aleut, Pacific

Islander, etc.) home ownership has increased from 47.6% to 52.6% Hispanic (all races) home ownership has increased from 42.2% to 45.4%




This may at first seem like a paradox, but it is simply math. The percentage of the different racial and ethnic groups has changed since 1995 and the percentage of people who self-report as non-Hispanic white has fallen while the percentages of people who self-describe as Hispanic or other races have climbed dramatically.

The percentage who self-describe as black has risen too, but only slightly.




In 1995, the US population consisted of the following (in 000s):

Non-Hispanic white - 193,328 (73.6%) Non-Hispanic black - 31,590 (12.0%) Non-Hispanic other races - 10,778 (4.1%) Hispanic - 27,107 (10.3%)

In 2015, the US population consisted of the following:

Non-Hispanic white - 200,050 (61.8% Non-Hispanic black - 40,271 (12.4% Non-Hispanic other races - 26,221 (8.1% Hispanic - 56,965 (17.6%)




Within each racial/ethnic group, home ownership has increased but it is the change in population mix away from the one race

with a high-percentage of home ownership towards races/ethnicity with lower rates of home ownership that has resulted in an overall drop

in the home l/ethnic group ownership rate.




November 17 - Taking a fresh look at the market over $1 million, we see 6 ZIP codes with their days of inventory under 12 months. These are the best luxury areas for sellers.




Rank City ZIPActive

Listings (excl UCB)

Annual Sales Days of Inventory

1 Glendale all 4 8 183

2 Scottsdale 85250 8 12 243

3 Scottsdale 85251 34 46 270

4 Scottsdale 85254 25 31 294

5 Scottsdale 85260 21 25 307

6 Phoenix 85018 77 87 323

7 Scottsdale 85258 27 27 365

8 Scottsdale 85259 73 70 381

9 Tempe all 13 12 395

10 Paradise Valley 85253 312 262 435




Rank City ZIPActive

Listings (excl UCB)


11 Phoenix 85016 46 38 442

12 Scottsdale 85255 288 227 463

13 Phoenix 85044/5/8 22 16 502

14 Phoenix Other 55 37 543

15 Queen Creek all 6 4 548

16 Gilbert all 20 12 608

17 Chandler all 27 16 616

18 Scottsdale 85262 276 155 650

19 Gold Canyon 85118 20 11 664

20 Mesa all 41 21 713




Rank City ZIPActive

Listings (excl UCB)


21 Rio Verde 85263 4 2 730

22 Carefree 85377 44 21 765

23 Fountain Hills 85268 81 38 778

24 Scottsdale 85266 93 42 808

25 Peoria all 13 5 949

26 Cave Creek 85331 46 15 1,119

27 Litchfield Park 85340 7 2 1,278

28 Wickenburg all 8 0 infinity




In the last 12 months, Glendale has seen 2 large luxury homes sell at $4.25 million and $3 million plus 4 more over $1 million. It can rightfully claim to be the easiest place

to sell a million dollar home at the moment, especially as the average time on market is only 116 days.

At the other end of the scale is Wickenburg, where we have 8 homes listed over $1 million. Unfortunately, for these sellers, there has not been a closed listing

over $1 million in Wickenburg since March 2012.




November 16 - The West Valley has seen the strongest appreciation in 2015, and it is not all concentrated at the lower end of the market. For homes listed over $500,000 the average sales price per sq. ft. over the past 3 months has been $175.07, up from $162.84 a year ago. This is an appreciation rate of 8.3%. At the same time, unit sales have grown 57% from 54 to 85. This is not a huge market but it does seem to be experiencing healthier price trends than the rest of the Phoenix area for homes over $500,000.

The sale of a $4,250,000 Glendale home certainly helped, but we saw one in Peoria for $1,900,000, one in Buckeye for $1,060,000, while Litchfield Park topped out at $947,000, Goodyear at $685,000 and Surprise at $625,000.




Even though it remains tiny at the moment, the West Valley is the fastest growing of the over $500,000 markets around Greater Phoenix. The subdivisions that crop up the most frequently are:

Arrowhead Lakes Vistancia Sun City Grand Verrado Wyndham Village

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Call me any time 602-359-5432Victoria Felice - Associate Broker, GRI, SRS - Berkshire Hathaway Home Services - 602-359-5432

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Victoria Felice, Associate BrokerYour North Scottsdale & Paradise Valley Luxury Real Estate Specialist
