physics for presidents and other world leaders
DESCRIPTION
Physics for Presidents and other World Leaders. photo by Victor Juhasz. Today:. terrorism nuclear weapons energy climate change. Terrorist nuke. Terrorist nuke. Uranium Bomb U-235 Purification HARD Gun design EASY Never needed test Destroyed Hiroshima Saddam’s bomb. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Physics forPhysics forPresidentsPresidentsand otherand other
World LeadersWorld Leaders
Physics forPhysics forPresidentsPresidentsand otherand other
World LeadersWorld Leaders
photo by Victor Juhasz
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Today:Today:
terrorismterrorism nuclear weaponsnuclear weapons energyenergy climate changeclimate change
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
TerroristTerroristnukenuke
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
TerroristTerroristnukenuke
Uranium Bomb U-235Purification HARDGun design EASYNever needed testDestroyed HiroshimaSaddam’s bomb
Plutonium Bomb Pu-239Purification EASYImplosion design HARDAlamogordo testDestroyed NagasakiNorth Korean Choice
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Saddam’s CalutronsSaddam’s CalutronsSaddam’s CalutronsSaddam’s Calutrons
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
TerroristTerroristnukenuke
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
North Korean North Korean Nuke hits Nuke hits
Central ParkCentral Park
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
1 Megaton 1 Megaton Nuke hits Nuke hits Central Central
ManhattanManhattan
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
North Korean North Korean Nuke hits Nuke hits
Central ParkCentral Park
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
9/119/119/119/11
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Energy per gram Energy per gram
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Energy per gram Energy per gram
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Energy per gram Energy per gram
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
US Cost of energyUS Cost of energy(($ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)$ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)
fuel cost per kWh (1000 Cal)
cost converted to electricity
coal $60/ton 0.6¢ 2¢
natural gas $5/MM-cu-ft 1.5¢ 5¢
gasoline $2/gal 6¢ 24¢
electricity 10¢/kWh 10¢ 10¢
computer battery(laptop, Tesla)
$120/lb for 60 Wh1000 charges
$2 $2.00
advanced Li-Ion(A123?)
$60/lb? 60Wh?3000 charges?
$0.33? 33¢ ?
AAA battery $1.50/battery $1000 $1000
Plug-in Hybrid: more expensive than $15/gallon gasoline!
(but less carbon dioxide)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Are the fears all based on Are the fears all based on complicated computer calculations? complicated computer calculations?
1979MacDonal
d
1979MacDonal
d 2007IPCC2007IPCC
1958Revell
e
1958Revell
e
1896Arhennius
1896Arhennius
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Greenhouse effectGreenhouse effect(car in the parking lot effect)(car in the parking lot effect)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
This is global This is global warming:warming:
This is global This is global warming:warming:
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years
+ arctic sea ice & sea level+ arctic sea ice & sea level
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
In last 100 yrs, sea level rose 8 inches
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
arctic icearctic ice
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Antarctica losing ice Antarctica losing ice massmass
Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years.
The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express.
The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch.
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna.
Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
SciencExpress 2 March 2006 p 1 / 10.1126/science.1123785
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Antarctica losing ice Antarctica losing ice massmass
Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years.
The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express.
The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch.
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna.
Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
SciencExpress 2 March 2006 p 1 / 10.1126/science.1123785
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
swim suitsswim suitsGlobal WarmingGlobal WarmingGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Landsea hurricanesLandsea hurricanes
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Hurricanes that hit the USHurricanes that hit the US
definitely NOT increasing!
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
tornadoestornadoes
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
WildfiresWildfires(in US)(in US)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Alaska isAlaska isMelting?Melting?
Temperature in Fairbanks
North Pacific
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
This is global This is global warming:warming:
This is global This is global warming:warming:
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years
+ arctic sea ice & sea level+ arctic sea ice & sea level
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Recent non WarmingRecent non Warming
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
How rapidly are we How rapidly are we running out of fossil running out of fossil
fuels?fuels?
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
billion barrel of oil billion barrel of oil equivalentequivalent
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Energy and WealthEnergy and Wealth
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Pollution per GDPPollution per GDPPollution per GDPPollution per GDP
US
China
India
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
World Carbon World Carbon DioxideDioxide
Projections Projections
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
China’s COChina’s CO22
Forecasting the Path of China’s CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information by Maximilian Au hammer & Richard T. Carson (2009)ff
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Energy per GDPEnergy per GDPEnergy per GDPEnergy per GDP
source: L. Shipper & S. Meyers
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
McKinsey AnalysisMcKinsey AnalysisMcKinsey AnalysisMcKinsey Analysis
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
cloudsclouds
Cloud cover:the big unknown
2% change in cloud cover
would overwhelm human CO2
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
What do we What do we do?do?
Comfortable Conservation
Clean Coal
Chinese Carbon Credits
Nukes, Solar, Wind
C 7 NSW
compact fluorescents in Notre Dame de Paris
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Wind turbinesWind turbines
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Solar CellsSolar Cells
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Nuclear WasteNuclear Waste
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Truly Clean Coal?
Sequestration of the carbon dioxide (CSS)
Cost: 4¢ per kWh
We can’t just suck it out of the air.
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Efficient and Clean Coal: Efficient and Clean Coal: IGCCIGCC (Integrated Gas Combined (Integrated Gas Combined
Cycle)Cycle)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
What can we do?What can we do?
plot from EPRI
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Future Energy TechFuture Energy TechIGCC (clean coal)IGCC (clean coal)
LiIonLiIon
Thin film solar: CdTe, Thin film solar: CdTe, CIGS, a-SiCIGS, a-Si
Ga multijunction solarGa multijunction solar
Pebble Bed NukesPebble Bed Nukes
Waste StorageWaste Storage
Coal bed gasificationCoal bed gasification
non-corn biofuelsnon-corn biofuels
CTL (Coal-To-Liquid; CTL (Coal-To-Liquid; Fisher-Tropsch)Fisher-Tropsch)
Coal-bed methaneCoal-bed methane
Enhanced Oil RecoveryEnhanced Oil Recovery
Solar concentratorSolar concentrator
Indium shortagesIndium shortages
DC power transmissionDC power transmission
InvertersInverters
coal bed gasificationcoal bed gasification
OMITTED (on purpose): plug-in hybrids, hydrogen economy, fuel cells, fusion, breeder reactors
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Global warming will come from the developing Global warming will come from the developing world. Unfortunately.world. Unfortunately.
Not good enough to set an example Not good enough to set an example ……
if developing countries can’t afford to follow if developing countries can’t afford to follow that example.that example.
Must stop Must stop Green Bickering Green Bickering and and
Cleaner than Thou PontificatingCleaner than Thou Pontificating
We need it allWe need it all: conservation, solar, wind, clean : conservation, solar, wind, clean coal, nukes, coal to liquid …coal, nukes, coal to liquid …
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
www.Muller.LBL.Govwww.Muller.LBL.Gov
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Al Gore – An Inconvenient Truth: “Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn.” -- but not, of course, for a few hundred years.
“If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet.”
Calculations by the Hadley Centerfor Climate Change, Met Office UK
In last 100 yrs, sea level rose 8 inches
Greenland melting?Greenland melting?
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Tons COTons CO22 per $1000 per $1000Tons COTons CO22 per $1000 per $1000
US
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
““The observed The observed widespread warming of widespread warming of the atmosphere and the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the mass loss, support the conclusion that it is conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that extremely unlikely that global global climate change of climate change of the past the past fifty years fifty years can can be explained without be explained without external forcing, and external forcing, and very very likely [90%] likely [90%] that it that it isis not not due to known natural due to known natural causes alone.”causes alone.”
THIS is the consensus:
IPCC 2007
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Hurricane damageHurricane damage
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
WWW.Muller.LBL.GoWWW.Muller.LBL.Govv
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
The bottom lines:The bottom lines:
We need the full spectrum:We need the full spectrum:
solarsolar natural gasnatural gas
windwind
clean coalclean coal
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Everyone needs to know this stuff.Everyone needs to know this stuff.
Physics is nonpartisan Physics is nonpartisan and non-denominational.and non-denominational.
Should not need to be Should not need to be taught with spin.taught with spin.
Monthly Fireside Chats?Monthly Fireside Chats?A A real real President’s Science President’s Science
Advisory Committee?Advisory Committee?
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
1 Megaton 1 Megaton Nuke hits Nuke hits Central Central
ManhattanManhattan
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Mann Global Mann Global Warming Hockey Warming Hockey
StickStick
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Prudhoe Bay Prudhoe Bay TemperaturesTemperatures
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
IPCC model resultsIPCC model results
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
The public needs to know this The public needs to know this stuff.stuff.
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
The public needs to know this The public needs to know this stuff.stuff.
Physics is nonpartisan and non-Physics is nonpartisan and non-denominational.denominational.
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
The public needs to know this stuff.The public needs to know this stuff.
Physics is nonpartisan and non-Physics is nonpartisan and non-denominational.denominational.
Physics does not need to be taught Physics does not need to be taught with spin.with spin.
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
North Korean North Korean Nuke hits Nuke hits
Central ParkCentral Park
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Al Gore: Al Gore: the evidence that humans are the evidence that humans are responsible for all of the damaging responsible for all of the damaging global warming of the past 120 years global warming of the past 120 years is clear and incontrovertible.is clear and incontrovertible.
IPCC: IPCC: it is very likely (90% chance) it is very likely (90% chance) that humans caused some of the 1that humans caused some of the 1oo F F warming of the past 50 years.warming of the past 50 years.
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Acidify theAcidify theOceans?Oceans?
The direct effects of COThe direct effects of CO2 2 on ocean acidityon ocean acidity
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
IPCC model resultsIPCC model results
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
cloud cloud numbersnumbers
HighHigh
thinthinHighHigh
thickthickmiddlemiddle
thinthinmiddlemiddle
thickthickall lowall low
cloudscloudsTotalTotal
global global fraction fraction (%)(%)
+10.+10.11
+8.6+8.6 +10.7+10.7 +7.3+7.3 +26.6+26.6 +63+63
ForcingForcing
Albedo Albedo (W/m(W/m22))
-4.1-4.1 --15.615.6 -3.7-3.7 -9.9-9.9 -20.2-20.2 -53.5-53.5
OutgoinOutgoing IR g IR (W/m(W/m22))
+6.5+6.5 +8.6+8.6 +4.8+4.8 +2.4+2.4 +3.5+3.5 +25.8+25.8
Net Net forcing forcing (W/m(W/m22))
2.42.4 -7.0-7.0 +1.1+1.1 -7.5-7.5 -16.7-16.7 -27.7-27.7
Role of clouds
compare insolation variations = 18 W/m2 rms
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Nuclear WasteNuclear Waste
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
New Solar CellsNew Solar Cells
from HS Ullal and B von Roedern, 2007
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Koonin plotKoonin plot
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
CO2 lags CO2 lags climateclimate
N. Caillon et al., Science vol 299, 1728, 14 March 2003
Temperature change precedes CO2 change by 800 ± 200 yrs
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Thermohaline Thermohaline Circulation Turn off?Circulation Turn off?
Atlantic ocean circulation predicted Atlantic ocean circulation predicted to decline but not switch offto decline but not switch off
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
NOAA NOAA Annual Annual
PublicatioPublicationn
The The Climate Climate of 2006of 2006
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
wildfires - wildfires - both both plotsplots
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
65 Myr climate 65 Myr climate RohdeRohde
plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
sunspotssunspots
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Asian Asian SootSoot
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Alaska isAlaska isMeltingMelting
Temperature in Fairbanks
North Pacific
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
rainfallrainfall
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel ReservesReserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
data:: US Energy Information Agency
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Turn Coal into OilTurn Coal into Oil(CTL – coal to liquid) at about (CTL – coal to liquid) at about
$50/bbl$50/bbl
Fischer-Tropsch
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel ReservesReserves
(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
A Global Warming A Global Warming SkepticSkeptic
Disputes the IPCC on both the evidence and on the expected consequences
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
fuel cost per kWh (1000 Cal)
cost converted to electricity
coal $80/ton 0.8¢ 2.4¢
natural gas $10/MM-cu-ft 3¢ 9¢
gasoline $4/gal 12¢ 48¢
electricity 10¢/kWh 10¢ 10¢
computer battery(laptop, Tesla)
$120/lb for 60 Wh1000 charges
$2 $2.00
advanced Li-Ion(A123?)
$60/lb? 60Wh?3000 charges?
$0.33? 33¢ ?
AAA battery $1.50/battery $1000 $1000
Plug-in Hybrid: more expensive than $15/gallon gasoline!
(but less carbon dioxide)
US Cost of energyUS Cost of energy(($ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)$ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
TerroristTerroristnukenuke
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
fuel cost per kWh (1000 Cal)
cost converted to electricity
coal $60/ton 0.6¢ 2¢
natural gas $5/MM-cu-ft 1.5¢ 5¢
gasoline $2/gal 6¢ 24¢
electricity 10¢/kWh 10¢ 10¢
computer battery(laptop, Tesla)
$120/lb for 60 Wh1000 charges
$2 $2.00
advanced Li-Ion(A123?)
$60/lb? 60Wh?3000 charges?
$0.33? 33¢ ?
AAA battery $1.50/battery $1000 $1000
Plug-in Hybrid: more expensive than $15/gallon gasoline!
(but less carbon dioxide)
US Cost of energyUS Cost of energy(($ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)$ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves(billion barrels of oil equivalent)(billion barrels of oil equivalent)
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Terrorist Nuke Attack on San FranciscoTerrorist Nuke Attack on San FranciscoTerrorist Nuke Attack on San FranciscoTerrorist Nuke Attack on San Francisco
this 1 kton explosion is greater than the N. Korea test
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Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009
Warming lastWarming last
158 years158 years