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The Future of Savoury Snacks: Impulse, Innovation and Convenience
PINAR HOSAFCIBakery and Snacks Analyst
SnackEx 2015 Istanbul, Turkey 11 June 2015
@PinarHosafci
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Defining Savoury Snacks
Sweet and Savoury Snacks
Fruit Snacks Nuts Chips /
CrispsTortilla Chips
Extruded Snacks Pretzels Popcorn Others
What is “others”?
Western vs Eastern Europe
Retail coverage
Grocery Retail
Modern Grocery Supermarkets, Hypermarkets, Discounters, Convenience Stores, Forecourt Retailers
Traditional Grocery Independent Stores, specialist stores, kiosks, open markets, street stalls
Non‐Grocery and Mixed Retailers
Non‐Grocery Apparel and footwear, electronic, health and beauty, home and garden, leisure and personal goods
Mixed Retailers Department stores, mass merchandisers, variety stores, warehouse clubs
Non‐Store Retail
Internet
Direct Selling
Vending
Homeshopping
• STATE OF THE INDUSTRY• THE RISE OF SAVOURY SNACKS• OMNIPRESENT SNACKING • WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
Savoury snacks lead the charge…
‐1.0%‐0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14Year‐on‐year retail volum
e grow
th
Volume growth of Savoury Snacks vs Packaged Food
Packaged Food Savoury Snacks
… increasingly so in Western Europe
‐1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year‐on‐year volum
e grow
th
Retail volume –million tonn
es
Retail volume and growth in Eastern vs Western Europe
Retail Volume ‐ Eastern Europe Retail Volume ‐ Western Europe% Volume Growth ‐ Western Europe % Volume Growth ‐ Eastern Europe
Branded snacks are gaining ground
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Private Labe
l Sha
re
Retail Va
lue ‐€billion
Savoury Snacks in Europe : Branded vs Private Label
Private Label Branded Private Label Share
Where does savoury snacks sit in Europe?
€22 billion
3 kg
5%
• STATE OF THE INDUSTRY• THE RISE OF SAVOURY SNACKS• OMNIPRESENT SNACKING • WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
Europe as a global standout
1
3
9
27
22
24
0 2 4 6 8
Australasia
Middle East and Africa
Latin America
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
€ billion
Market S
ize 2014 (€
billion
)
Absolute Value Growth 2009‐2014
Western EuropeEastern Europe
Europeans are avid snack consumers
>5 kg2-4.991-1.99<1NA
Savoury Snacks: Consumption per capita
3 1
IR: 6.7
NO: 6
UK: 6.1
NL:6.6SE: 5.8
The biggest winners in savoury snacks
Crisps
Extruded snacks
Nuts
PopcornPretzels
Tortilla Chips
Others
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
volume % CAG
R –2009
‐2014
Per capita sales (kg) ‐ 2014
Savoury Snacks : Per capita sales vs growth
Flavour innovation key to chips’ growth
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
0
50
100
150
200
Russia UK Germany France Turkey
% CAG
R
Growth ‐€million
Chips: Top 5 Growth Markets 2009‐2014
Absolute Growth %CAGR
RUSSIA GERMANY
Tortilla chips rising stars: UK and Turkey
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
UK Turkey Germany Netherlands Norway
% CAG
R
Growth ‐€billion
Tortilla Chips: Top 5 Growth Markets 2009‐2014
Absolute Growth %CAGR
TURKEYUK
• STATE OF THE INDUSTRY• THE RISE OF SAVOURY SNACKS• OMNIPRESENT SNACKING • WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
It is always snack time
Source: Euromonitor International online consumer survey – Global Consumer Trends 2011
Millennials shake up the market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15-34(Millennials)
35-54(Generation X)
55-64(Baby Boomer)
65+
% o
f res
pond
ents
Snack Consumption outside the Home
7+ per week 5-6 per week
3-4 per week 1-2 per week
Source: Euromonitor International survey results– Out and Abound Survey 2012
Flavours get bolder
The rise of Mexican and Asian cuisine leads to a surge in hot flavours with jalapeno and chipotle being particularly prominent.
SPICY
Traditional meal flavours are increasingly being incorporated into savoury snacks, and perform particularly well in countries with a strong culinary tradition like France.
GOURMET
The mix of sweet with savoury is also gaining traction with cinnamon, chocolate but also honey featuring more frequently in crisps and extruded snacks.
SAVOURY
Savoury expands beyond chips
UK
SPAIN
SWITZERLAND
The ubiquity of shape and textures
Fun
Excitement
VarietyExperience
“Health”
Retail space gets crowded
40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40
Vending
Internet Retailing
Non‐Grocery Retailers
Forecourt Retailers
Convenience Stores
Discounters
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
Traditional Grocery Retailers
Share of total retail distribution (%)
Retail Distribution of Savoury Snacks
Eastern Europe Western Europe
Mod
ern
Gro
cery
R
etai
lers
Internet and non-grocery are among the fastest growing channels in Western Europe.
Making use of alternative channels
NUTS
CHIPS
SPAINTURKEY
• STATE OF THE INDUSTRY• THE RISE OF SAVOURY SNACKS• OMNIPRESENT SNACKING • WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
Healthy snacks 2.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Organic
Limited/no added salt
No artificial ingredients
No transfats
Reduced/low calorie
Health organization
Vitamins or fiber
Limited/no added fat
Is all natural
% of respondents
Purchasing Decision: Which of the following factors or ingredients do you
look for on food labels? Dried & Baked Poland
Air‐dried Germany
Source: Euromonitor International survey results– Global Consumer Trends survey 2013
Vegetable chips are gaining prominence
Savoy cabbage chips
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Historic Period(2009‐2014)
Forecast Period(2014‐2019)
% volum
e CA
GR
Growth of Savoury Snacks by Ingredients
Cereals Potato Products Vegetables
Ingredients: Savoy cabbage , onions , cashew nuts , sesame seeds, nutritional yeast , sea salt , lemon juice
From single grain to super grain
Simple grain
Multigrain Whole grains Super grains
Protein ranks high on the agenda
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Historic(2009-2014)
Forecast(2014-2019)
%C
AG
R
Savoury Snacks: Volume Growth in its Nutritional
Components
Fat Protein
Insects?
It is time for cricket crisps!
Netherlands, November 2014 UK, November 2013
Moving towards mini packs
“Put a packet in your pocket”
Down‐the‐hatch packs for nuts
ITALY
RUSSIA UK
0% 50% 100%
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
% share in growth
Savoury Snack Packaging Forecast Growth 2014‐2019
0‐50 g 51‐100 g101‐300 g 301‐1000 g
The Future
Key messages
Focus on stealth reduction
Use clean ingredients and clear labelling
Leverage packaging to communicate a clear message
Target diversified retail
THANK YOU FOR LISTENINGPinar HosafciBakery and Snacks [email protected]