Piracy as a Preventor of Tropical Cyclones

Jacob D. Haqq-MisraPenn State University

Michael B. LarsonUniversity of Wyoming

Hurricanes and Global Warming

• Emmanuel (2005) found an increase in hurricane intensity over the past 30 years

• Webster (2005) showed that the number of category 4 & 5 storms has increased

• Tropical Cyclone intensity is a function of sea surface temperature (SST), although at least 5 other factors contribute to formation and strength

Piracy and Global Warming

(Henderson, 2006)

Piracy and Global Warming

• September 19: National Talk Like a Pirate Day

• October 31: Halloween

(http://www.edu.meisei-u.ac.jp/ondo/temperature.html)

Piracy and Oceanic Upwelling

• Piracy decreases SST by inducing upwelling of cold deep-ocean water

• Contributing activities include:– Involuntary Crew

Resignations (ICR’s)– Inter-Vessel Interactions

(IVI’s)– Acoustically-

Transmitted Oscillations (ATO)

Involuntary Crew Resignation

• ICR – also known as “walking the plank”

• A Pirate or captive is forcibly ejected from a seagoing vessel

• Upwelling is produced from displacement of water by the ejectee

Inter-Vessel Interaction

• IVI – also known as “sea combat”

• Transmission of projectiles between vessels

• Boarding or destruction can occur during an IVI event

• Upwelling is produced by scattered projectiles and the sinking of vessel elements

Acoustically-Transmitted Oscillations

• ATO – also known as “sea shanties”

• Originally intended to boost the morale of rowing Pirates

• Now ritual with the ascent of external power

• ATO disturb the sea surface– Large biological entities

increase motion

– This motion results in oceanic upwelling

Oceanic Circulation Model

• Simulate using a coupled OGCM-Pirate model• PARROT – Piratic Activity Realization Rate of Oceanic Tendencies

• 0.5° grid resolution• Average Pirate activity per grid cell from 1605-2005• Normalized Pirate-induced upwelling:

– ICR = 1 upu (typical)

– IVI = variable, use a Maxwellian with µ=1000 upu

– ATO = 0.5 upu/day (global average)

OGCM, Uncoupled

OGCM, Coupled to PARROT

PARROT@HOME

• Distributed computing project, using the BOINC infrastructure

• Over 10,000 users worldwide

• ~20 TeraFLOPS

Implications of the PARROT Model

• Recent Pirate activity is weak (near Somalia)• Historical Pirate has been activity concentrated in the

Caribbean • PARROT produces significant Pirate-induced

upwelling in the Atlantic basin• Reduction in Pirate population leads to a reduction in

upwelling• SST increases, and the potential for intense tropical

cyclones increases• The hurricane season may also lengthen as a result

Experimental Verification

• Controlled ICR event: North Puerto Rican Coast (March 11, 2006)

• Measured: 0.83 upu• Based on magnitude and

location, PARROT predicts a ~9% reduction in the number of named tropical storms in the 2006 season

What are Pirates saying about this?

“Oi was so interested in yer pirate studies tha' oi doubled me 'involuntary crew resignations' an' tripled me 'intervessel interactions'. Oi be hopin' fer a definite drop in global warmin' as a result! YAAAR!!”

– Cap'n Tickle

Anti-Pirate Activity

• Few modern Pirates remain on the open seas

• Pirates off the coast of Somalia (not properly dressed as Pirates)

• Anti-Pirate efforts have contributed to the rise in tropical cyclone intensity

Conclusion

• Pirate-related activities produce oceanic upwelling of cold deep-ocean water

• The decrease in Pirate-induced upwelling has resulted in increasing SST’s

• Increased SST has contributed to recent intense tropical cyclones

• Purposeful increase in Pirate activity will help reduce the severity of future seasons

Why Pirates?

• Pirates are His chosen people

• Scientists say we share 95% of our DNA with chimpanzees

• Biology textbooks fail to mention we share 99.9% of our DNA with Pirates

• The carefree Pirate lifestyle exemplifies some of the ideals most important to the Flying Spaghetti Monster

FSM Heaven

RAmen!