plan forum on mobility: intro and survey

Forum

Uber, car clubs and driverless cars:

The end of the road for urban car ownership?

#PlanFrm

@BloombergNEF

@planstrategic

Chair: Kevin McCullagh Founder, Plan

Panelist: Debbie Nathan Head of Consumer Research, Plan

Panelist: Colin McKerracher Head of Advanced Transport, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Panelist: Timandra Harkness Co-presenter of FutureProofing, Radio 4

Panelist: Oliver Le Grice former Chief Designer Advanced Design, Land Rover

Speaker: Lars Hesselgren Director Research PLP Architecture

16:30 Introduction

16:40 Highlights from Plan’s urban mobility survey

16:50 Opening remarks from panelists

17:00 Chaired discussion

17:35 Preview of an urban infrastructure concept

17:45 Q&A

18:30 Drinks

TitleFinal presentation

00 XXX 2014

Setting the scene Kevin McCullagh

Cars used to be an unalloyed good

Richer mobility service ecosystem

New mobility modes

Multi-modal apps

Seamless payments

2003London congestion charging begins

2004ZipCar launches

1980sHigh occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA

1982Athens Ring Odd/Even system

2014London congestion nears pre-charging levels

2020Paris to ban diesel cars

2010Boris Bike scheme launched

2034Hamburg to ban cars from centre

2030 Helsinki eliminatesprivate-car ownership

2040DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015

Squeeze on car use

Higher parking costs

Congestion charging

Lower speed limits

Traffic-calming measures

Stricter emission laws

No-car developments

Limited car zones

The long squeeze and alternatives

2km1km 5km 10km 15km+

Cost and convenience

(Price / C

omfort / Flexibility / S

peed)

BusScooter

Tram

Taxi

Minicab

Walk

Luxury chauffeur

Metro

Bike

Typical urban journey length

Private car

Dynamic minibus

Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj

Mobility services

Hailable mini cab

Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber Action

zone

Motorbike

Multi- modal

payment

Taxi hailing apps

Parking services

Multi- modal

planner Navigation

P2P car sharing

Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides

Free- floating

car sharing

Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking

space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow

Shared Scooter

Shared bike

Micro car sharing

For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups

of users, e.g. Audi Unite

Point-to-point car sharing Back-to-base

car sharing

e-bike

Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle

There are more alternatives to car ownership now

Title 1 line

UK car sales

1.75m2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

1.85m

1.95m

2.05m

2.15m

2.25m

2.35m

2.45m

2.55m

2.65m

+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030

Euromonitor, 2015

SMMT (2015)

But cars have never been so popular

TFL, Travel in London: Report 8 (2015)

The car is London’s popular form of transport Car Bus/Tram W

alk

T

ube

Rail

Other

35% 14%

12%

20%

24%

5%

Modes share of daily

journeys

54% of households have at least one carTFL, ‘Roads Task Force – Technical Note 12: How many cars are there in London and who owns them?’ (2013)

Most London households have a car

40% of UK’s gridlock is in London PRNewsire, ‘Gridlock on UK Roads Costs the Country’s Economy £4.3 Billion’ (2012)

London is capital of gridlock

Average time drivers spent stuck in trafficFT, ‘London becomes Europe’s gridlock capital’ (2015)

London’s congestion is getting worse ...

96hrs 2014

82hrs2013

... and London is growing

Mayor of London, ‘Mayor calls for new measures to secure the success of London's roads’ press release, February 2016

8.6m2016

10 m2030

75% of Gen Y drivers

Young people still aspire to own their own car

believe they are likely to be using their own, personal car in 5 years timeGFK, ‘Gen Y Drivers Are Much More Likely to Embrace Connected Car Features’, January 2015 (US, UK, Germany, Brazil, Russia, and China)

Better public transport isn’t always the answer

Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.

+1.2%increase in demand for the service overall

Fast Company, ‘Why The World’s Largest Experiment In Free Public Transportation Failed’, 2014

1.Will Londoners trade private cars for on-demand access?

Thilo Koslowski, Creating Innovations in the Automotive and Smart Mobility Industry Primer for 2016, Gartner, January 2016

Gartner predicts that by 2020

10 % of today’s urban vehicle owners will replace them with on-demand vehicle access

2.Can ‘smart’ technology squeeze more of existing roads?

3.What are the options for increasing road capacity?

15 March 2016

Car ownership alternativesSurvey results

Why do this research?

Decades of pressure on cars


Decades of pressure on carsWide range of alternatives


Decades of pressure on carsWide range of alternativesBut what do consumers think?

3 Hunches

3 Hunches

Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

3 Hunches


Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

3 Hunches

Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars



What we did

Free fuel Free parking

FREE

Driving inbus lanes

Car clubs

FREE

Mini cab pricesplunging

Who we spoke to

Where people live/work

n = 883

30%

19%23%

28%

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3-4

Zone 5-8

Car ownership / access status

57% 13% 4% 25%

Private car Someone elses car Car sharing No access

Age

12%

18-24

24%

25-34

25%

35-44

13%

45-54

17%

55-64

7%

65+

Younger people are more likely to consider a car club

Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use?

% shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested883 respondents, results are statistically significant

22%18-44 yrs

11%44+ yrs

People who have access to a car are more likely to consider a car club



23%access

11%own

People who live or work in zones 1-4 are more likely to consider a car club



22%zones 1-4

9%zones 5-8

Question What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?

Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? 509 respondents

10%

100%

0%

11% of car owners are very interested in car sharing as an alternative to their own car

19%

70%

11%

Face value

not at all interested

neutral

very interested

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives...

if they didn’t have to pay for fuel?Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if you didn’t have to pay for fuel with this shared car? 509 respondents

FREE

Freefuel

Face value

11%

not at all interested

neutral

very interested

23% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club offered them free fuel

FREE

22%

55%

23%

Freefuel

Face value

definitelynot

neutral

definitely


if they could drive in bus lanes?Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car were allowed in bus lanes? 509 respondents

FREE

Buslanes

Freefuel

Face value

23%

definitelynot

neutral

definitely

16% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car was allowed in bus lanes

FREE

22%

55%

16%

Buslanes

Freefuel

Face value

definitelynot

neutral

definitely


if parking was free?Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car allowed you to park for free across London? 509 respondents

FREE

FREE

Freeparking

Buslanes

Freefuel

Face value

16%

definitelynot

neutral

definitely

31% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car could park for free

FREE

FREE

31%19%

50%

Freeparking

Buslanes

Freefuel

Face value

definitelynot

neutral

definitely

What % of people would give up their car if Minicabs halved in price?

Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if minicabs/Uber were to half in price (e.g. £4 for a 30 minute trip)? 509 respondents

FREE

FREE

Minicabprices

Freeparking

Buslanes

Freefuel

Face value

31%

definitelynot

neutral

definitely

24% of car owners would definitely give up their car if minicabs were to half in price

FREE

FREE

24%22%

55%

Minicabprices

Freeparking

Buslanes

Freefuel

Face value

definitelynot

neutral

definitely

What % of people would give up their car in favour of alternatives?

Freefuel

FREE

Face value

Freeparking

FREE

Bus lanes

Minicabprices

22%

23%

55%

17%19%

24%11%

59%

19%

31%

50%

18%

16%

66%70%definitelynot

neutral

definitely

Car owners Full sample

22%

23%

55%

17%

19%

24%11%

59%

19%

31%

50%

18%

16%

66%70%

26%

31%

43%

22%

25%

30%19%

48%

20%

40%

40%

25%

20%

55%57%

Interestingly, similar proportions reflected at the full sample view

509 respondents 883 respondents

definitely not

neutral

definitely

To conclude

Most owners are not open to giving up their cars

Young londoners are more open to alternatives

Suburbanites are least open to giving up their cars

Car clubs with free parking are the most attractive alternative

1 2 3 4

https://vimeo.com/159049130

3 Hunches




We join the dots

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