planning and programming for transit state of good repair...

Planning and Programming for Transit State of Good

Repair at the Regional Level

Glen Tepke, Metropolitan

Transportation Commission

Oakland, California

Ninth National Conference on Transportation Asset Management

April 17, 2012

2

Overview

Green Shade = Subject to Commission Action

Development of a Regional Transit Capital Inventory (RTCI)

Use of RTCI and FTA TERM to:

• Project short-term and long-term asset replacement and rehabilitation needs

• Assess state of repair of region’s transit system, set targets for improvement

• Inform priority-setting in Regional Transportation Plan

• Evaluate funding alternatives for capital needs

Coordination of asset management at regional and operator levels

Next steps

3

Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)


Metropolitan Planning Organization for San Francisco Bay Area

• 9 counties, 12 urbanized areas, 101 cities & towns

• Population ~7 million

• Served by 27 independent transit operators

• MTC develops long-range Regional Transportation Plan -includes projected needs & funding for transit capital replacement & rehabilitation

4

Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)


Designated Recipient of federal formula funds:

• FTA Urbanized Area & Fixed Guideway Modernization

• FHWA Surface Transp. Program

MTC programs formula funds to 21 transit operators, including: •San Francisco MTA

•BART

•Santa Clara VTA

•AC Transit

•SamTrans

•Caltrain

•Golden Gate Transit

5

Regional Transit Capital Inventory


Comprehensive & consistent asset inventory for entire region – 25 operators, ~80,000 assets:

• Buses & vans, railcars, ferry vessels, trolleys, cable cars

• Tracks, guideway, bridges, tunnels

• Stations, fare collection equipment

• Facilities - operations & maintenance, equipment

• Systems - train control, traction power, communications

6



Why? Improved basis for projecting region’s preservation costs for RTP & annual funding programs

• Limited funds, increasing reinvestment needs

• Systems reaching mid-life, e.g., BART car replacement • Wide variation in

asset data by operator & asset type

• Shift from project-based to asset-based need projections – more comprehensive & consistent

7



Data included:

• Year in service

• Useful life, rehab cycles

• Replacement & rehab costs

Condition estimated based on age

Data from variety of sources:

• Maintenance management systems

• Financial systems

• Condition assessments

RTCI developed 2006 – 2007, updated 2010 - 2011

8

RTP Transit Capital Need Projections


RTCI data used with FTA Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM)

• Developed by FTA to project needs at national level

• Used for National SGR Assessment, C&P reports

• Uses empirically derived asset decay curves to estimate condition based on age & other factors

• MTC projections based on regional funding priority policy

9



Two types of needs:

• Backlog – assets already past useful life or missed scheduled rehabs at beginning of planning period

• Normal, recurring needs as assets come due for replacement or rehab during planning period

Projected needs under alternative scenarios:

• 10 Years to SGR – backlog addressed over 10 years, meet normal recurring needs on schedule

• Maintain Current State of Repair – defer replacements & rehabs so backlog & other SGR measures remain ~ constant

• Revenue Constrained –SGR at projected funding level

10



Investment Needs: Investment in Backlog and Normal Replacement By Category

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

SGRB

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

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2020

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2040

Billi

ons

of $

YOE

Systems

Facil ities

Stations

Guideway Elements

Vehicles

Backlog of Deferred Replacement & Rehab ($6.3B)

Average Annual Normal Replacement ($1.5B)

11



Attain SGR in 10 Years Scenario


$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

SGRB

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

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2018

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2040

Billi

ons

of $

YOE

Systems

Facil ities

Stations

Guideway Elements

Vehicles

Average Annual Normal Replacement + Backlog ($1.8B)

12



Maintain Current State of Repair Scenario


$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

SGRB

2011

2012

2013

2014

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2016

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2018

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2020

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2040

Billi

ons

of $

YOE

Systems

Facil ities

Stations

Guideway Elements

Vehicles

Average Annual Normal Replacement + Backlog ($1.3B)

13

Assessing State of Good Repair


Attain SGR in 10 Years Scenario

SGR Backlog by Category

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

SGRB

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

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2018

2019

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2035

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Billi

ons

of $

YOE

Systems

Facil ities

Stations

Guideway Elements

Vehicles

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$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

SG

RB

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Bil

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ns o

f $

YO

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SGR Backlog by Category ($2010)

Vehicles Guideway Elements

Stations Facilities

Systems

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Attain SGR in 10 Years Scenario Percent of Assets Over Age

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010

2010

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Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge A

sset

Age

All Assets

Replaceable Assets

Non-Replaceable Assets

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Percent of Assets Over Age

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

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2015

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Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge A

sset

Age

All Assets

Replaceable Assets

Non-Replaceable Assets

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Attain SGR in 10 Years Scenario Percent of Assets Over Age by Category

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

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Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge A

sset

Age

10000 Guideway Elements

20000 Facil ities

30000 Systems

40000 Stations

50000 Vehicles

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Percent of Assets Over Age by Category

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

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2039

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Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge A

sset

Age

10000 Guideway Elements

20000 Facil ities

30000 Systems

40000 Stations

50000 Vehicles

19

Regional Transportation Plan


1. Revenue vehicle replacement - $16B

2. Tracks, guideway, train control, traction power, communications, & fare collection systems - $17B

3. Stations, facilities, maintenance equipment - $14B

Regional SGR Target: Replace all assets at end of useful life

2013 – 2040 Total projected needs for 10 Years to SGR scenario - $47B

Regional priorities - fund assets most directly related to safety and reliability of services:

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Draft Transportation Investment Strategy

21



Proposed Approach Continue T2035 Functional Investment Approach Maintain existing pavement conditions Fully fund revenue vehicles and 70%+ of total

other Score 16 assets Fully fund operating needs for existing transit services Invest in State Bridge Rehab & Retrofit Falls short of new Plan Bay Area targets (see below)

Related Performance Targets Maintain transportation system Local Streets & Roads – Pavement Condition Index of

75 and corresponding Non-Pavement State of Repair Transit Rehab – Replace All Assets by End of Useful

Life Reduce distressed state highway lane miles

Trade-Off Investment Proposal $24 Billion

15

Investment Strategy #2:Fix-It First

56%

1%

43%

Close GHG Gap

Fix-It First

Remaining Trade-Off Revenue

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$35

$44

$98

$115

$40

$47

$28

$38

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120Remaining Need to MeetPerformance TargetRegional Investment

Committed Revenue

$7

$10

$2

$6

$8

$1

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

Investment Strategy #2:Fix-It First

Local Streets & Roads

Transit Operations

Transit Capital Rehab

State Highways & Bridges

Local Streets &

Roads

Transit Operations*

Transit Capital Rehab

State Highways & Bridges

Regional Investment Detail

Maintenance & Operations Needs and Revenues Summary($ Billions, YOE$)

T203

5

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

T203

5

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

T203

5

T203

5

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

T203

5

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

T203

5

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

T203

5

Pla

n B

ay A

rea

T203

5

*Includes funding for Lifeline 16

23



34

T2035 by Function - $218 B

O&M - Transit51%

O&M - Roads and

Bridges30%

Expansion- Roads & Bridges

5%Expansion -

Transit14%

Plan Bay Area by Function - $277 B

O&M - Transit58%

O&M - Roads and

Bridges30%

Expansion - Roads

and Bridges

3% Expansion - Transit

9%

Plan Bay Area Summary

See detail in Appendices 1-3

24



27%

22%

22%

33%

29%

19%

58%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SANDAG SACOG SCAG MTC

Transit O&M Road and Bridge O&M

17

Investment Strategy #2:Plan Bay Area Emphasizes Fix-It FirstComparison of O&M Expenditures with other Regions

25

Programming FTA Formula Funds for SGR


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

$ m

illio

ns

Attachment B. Transit Capital Priorities 10-Year CIP Projections

Fixed Guideway Caps Other Score 16 Other Vehicle Replacements SFMTA Trolleys Caltrain Cars BART Cars Phase 1

Projected Revenues

26

Coordination of Asset Management at Regional & Operator Levels


BART

• Integrating maintenance management & financial system data with TERM Lite to improve capital planning

SFMTA

• Developed inventory for SGR analysis for New Starts application & CIP development, using MBTA SGR model

• First step in broader TAM program, including asset condition assessments

VTA

• Refined inventory using RTCI template & construction data, used for SGR analysis for New Starts application

BART & SFMTA projects supported by FTA SGR grants

27

Next Steps


• Use RTCI data for upcoming NTD asset reporting

• Incorporate condition assessment data

• Outcome analysis – tie reinvestment level SGR reliability & quality ridership GHG emissions, air quality & congestion – SGR is a means to an end

• Implement TERM Lite – MTC & operators

• Make RTCI data & analysis more accessible for operator asset management

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