planning for new orleans’ demographic future€¦ · 11/11/2005 · metro new orleans population...
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William H. FreyThe Brookings Institutionand University of Michigan
Planning for New Orleans’Demographic Future
www.frey-demographer.org
www.brookings.edu/metro
New Orleans City Population Change 1990-2004
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
White Black
Metro New Orleans Population Change1990-2004
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
White Black
Parish Growth by Race, 1990-2004
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Orleans Jefferson St.Bernard
Pla-quemines
St. John St.Charles
St.Tammany
Whites Blacks
Parish Race Profiles, 2004
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Orleans Jefferson
St. Bernard
Plaquemines
St. JohnSt. Charles
St. Tammany White Black Hispanic Other
New Orleans Metro: Average Neighborhood Racial Composition
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
78.3
19.8
13.5
74.1
4.8 3.13.4 3.0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
For Whites For Blacks
White Black Hispanic Other
1 Fresno 43.52 New Orleans 37.33 Louisville 36.74 Miami 36.45 Atlanta 35.86 Long Beach 30.77 Cleveland 29.88 Philadelphia 27.99 Milwaukee 27.010 New York 25.9
Percent Poor living in "Concentrated Poverty Neighborhoods"
Source: "Katrina's Window: Confronting Concentrated Poverty Across America", Brookings Institution 2005
Blacks WhitesHH Income $21,461 $40,390 Poverty Rate 43% 11%College Grads 13% 48%Not in Labor Force 44% 30%Renters 41% 56%
New Orleans City
Source: Brookings Institution
Flooded DryHH Income $38,263 $55,316 Poverty Rate 30% 24%Renters 54% 53%Nonwhites 80% 55%
New Orleans City: Flooded vs. Dry Areas
Source:”New Orleans after the Storm:Lessons from the Past, A Plan for the Future” Brookings Institution 2005
Flooded DryHH Income $44,479 $53,108 Poverty Rate 22% 15%Renters 47% 31%Nonwhites 58% 35%
Metro New Orleans: Flooded vs. Dry Areas
Source:”New Orleans after the Storm:Lessons from the Past, A Plan for the Future” Brookings Institution. 2005
Population Growth 2000-04
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
1.9
6.98.8
15.4
02468
1012141618
New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta
Black Growth 2000-04
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
0.3
9.2 9.710
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta
Black-White Segregation
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
75.4
71.3
63.9
68.5
5860626466687072747678
New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta
Percent in Poverty
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
14.913.3 13.1
11.9
02468
1012141618
New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta
Percent Born in Same State
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
76.7
55.7 5550
0102030405060708090
New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
States with Most Rooted Populations
Blacks Whites
1 Baton Rouge 90%2 Mobile 89%3 Birmingham 89%4 New Orleans 88%
14 Houston 75%22 Detroit 72%38 Oakland 61%46 Atlanta 57%
Blacks Born in Same State
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
La Out-Migration by Education
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
3.74.8
10
14.1
2.34.4
8.1
12.7
02468
10121416
Less than HS High SchoolGrad
Some College College Grad
Whites Blacks
Out-migration by Poverty
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
7.7
2.8
6.7
8.2
0123456789
In Poverty Not in Poverty
Whites Blacks
Out migration by Household Income
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
5.7
7.7 8.2 8.5
7.2
9.3
7.5
5.4
3.1
8.7
0123456789
10
<15K 15-25K 25-35K 35-50K 50-75K
Whites Blacks
Migration by Education Metro Comparisons:
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Less than HS HS Grad Some Coll College Grad
NewOrleansAtlanta
Dallas
Houston
Blacks1. Atlanta2. Baton Rouge3. Dallas4. Houston5. Lafayette6. Los Angeles
Whites1. Baton Rouge2. Houston3. Biloxi4. Dallas5. Lafayette6. Houma, La
Pre-Katrina Destinations from New Orleans
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
Where La Blacks Moved Before Katrina
100,000 and over
1,000 to 5,0005,000 to 10,000
10,000 to 100,000
under 1,000
Propositions:• Involve the region’s demographically diverse
population, including evacuees, in the planning
process.
• Give priority to enabling the region’s original residents
to return.
• Provide improved housing options for returning and
new in-migrants to the the region