Planning in a World of ChangeNCTR Webinar, August 25, 2011

Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D.Center for Urban Transportation ResearchUniversity of South Florida

Technology• Communication substitution• Cost of travel• Energy/environmental impact

Travel Demand

Transportation Supply• Mode options• Performance (capacity/speed, cost, safety, etc)

Transportation Revenues

Economy• Income

Population• Number• Characteristics• Locations

Societal Goals and Objectives

Outline

Travel Behavior

Transportation Infrastructure & Service Costs

1969 Population (millions) 203Person miles traveled (trillion) 1.40Vehicles/100 people 52Gas /gallon $ 0. 35New house $ 15,550Income per year $ 8,550New car $ 3,270

Man Walks on Moon

Wal*Mart Incorporated

First Computer to Computer Message

The World is Changing

1977

Apple Computer Incorporated

Alaska Pipeline Opens

Fiber optics deployed for telephone communications

Population (millions) 216Person miles traveled (trillion ) 1.62

Vehicles/100 people 68Gas /gallon $ 0. 65New house $ 49,300Income per year $15,000BMW 320i $ 7,990

1983

Modern Minivan IntroducedFirst mobile phones introduced to public by Motorola

Microsoft Word and

Lotus 1-2-3 first released.

Population (millions) 234Person miles traveled (trillions) 1.59Vehicles/100 people 70Gas /gallon $ 0. 79New house $ 82,600Income per year $ 21,070Dodge RAM 50 Truck $ 5,665

1990

Exxon Valdez Spill

Honda Accord Top Seller

Population (millions) 249Person miles traveled (trillions) 2.03Vehicles/100 people 76Gas /gallon $ 1.34New house $ 123,000Income per year $ 28,960Isuzu Rodeo $ 12,4900

1995 - FIFTH NHTS

DVD, Optical Disc Storage Media Announced.

Population (millions) 262Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.11Vehicles/100 people 77Gas /gallon $ 1.09New house $ 113,150Income per year $ 35,900New car $ 15,500

2001

September 11

Satellite Radio Begins

Segway Introduced to Revolutionize

Transportation?Population (millions) 281Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.52Vehicles/100 people 82Gas /gallon $ 1.46New house $ 136,150Income per year $ 42,350New car $ 27,958

2009

Automakers Beg for Washington Aid

The top three Internet searches in 2008:

1. Britney Spears2. World Wrestling

Entertainment3. Obama

Richest Nations Agree to Halve Greenhouse Gas

Facebook Passes 100 Million Users

Population (millions) 305Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.30Vehicles/100 people 80Gas /gallon $ 3.39New house $ 238,880Income per year $ 40,523New car $ 28,715

Apple iphone 7G iOS 8

Personal Teleportation App

Press to Transport

President Signs Transportation Reauthorization Bill LATE-TEA

Population (millions) ?Person VMT (trillion ) ?Vehicles/100 people ?Gas /Gallon ?New house ? Income per year ? New Car ?

THE FUTURE

Fundamental Travel TrendsVMT, Registered Vehicles, Gas Cost, Average Income

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Perc

ent G

row

th s

ince

196

9

Average Income

Registered Vehicles

Gas Cost

PMT

Travel Trends

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Ann

ual H

ours

per

Per

son

Travel Time per Capita

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

VMT in Millions

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

PMT/VMT

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Ann

ual V

MT

VMT per Person

Demographic Trends

23

38

24

10

5

15

26

24

16

20

0 10 20 30 40

Only Child

Single Sibling

Two Siblings

Three Siblings

Basketball Team

Households with Siblings

1960 2000census

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Perc

ent o

f all

Hou

seho

lds

Household Size

5+ Persons

4 Persons

3 Persons

2 Persons

1 Person

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Perc

ent o

f all

Peop

le

Population by Age

Age 5-15

Age 16-25

Age 26-34

Age 35-64

Age 65 and over

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Perc

ent o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Population - Urban and Rural

Urban

Rural

Demographic Trends

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Population by MSA Size

Less than 250,000250,000 to 499,999500,000 to 999,9991 mil to 2 mil

3 mil or more

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Population by Race

Other

African American

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1983 1995 2001 2008

Housing TypeMulti-Family UnitsSingle Family Units

Note: 1990 NPTS did not

collect dwelling unit information

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Num

ber o

f Hou

seho

lds

(tho

usan

ds)

Three or More Vehicles

Two Vehicles

One Vehicle

No Vehicle

Comparison of Various Florida Population Projections

2010 Census18,801,310

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Popu

lati

on in

Tho

usan

d's

Forecast Year

Census

1990

1995

2000

2005

2006

2011

2006 forecast was 1.12 million to high for 2010

1995 forecast was 2.17 million too low for 2010

forecasts have varied by 4.8m for 2025

Incremental Annual Change in VMT

-120,000

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010M

iles

(000

,000

)

YTD 2011 thru May down 1%.

Trip Rate and Length

1067

1054

1371

1568

1449

1385

9.47 8.68 9.29 9.00

10.78 9.52

0

5

10

15

20

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1977 1983 1990 Adj. 1995 2001 2008

Trip

Len

gth

Ann

ual T

rips

per

Per

son

5+

NPTS and NHTS Work Trip Walking Mode Shares

19695.00%

19774.60% 1983

4.10% 19903.70%

19952.60%

20012.81%

20082.82%

19834.50% 1990

4.00%

19952.30%

20012.92% 2008

3.03%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Perc

ent W

alki

ng to

Wor

k

Work Trip "Usual Mode"

Work Trip Actual Mode

Walk is 10.95% of all trips in 2008

Census/ACS Work Trip Percent Walking Mode Share

10.40%

7.40%

5.60%

3.90%

2.90%

2.86%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Perc

ent W

alki

ng to

Wor

k

2009 ACS

Vehicle Occupancies - NHTS

1.401.30 1.30

1.20 1.20 1.201.13

1.90 1.90

1.801.70

1.59 1.64

1.67

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Occ

upan

cy

Work Trip

All Trips

Carpooling Mode Share (ACS)

20.4% 19.7%

13.4% 12.2%

10.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

Perc

ent C

arpo

olin

g to

Wor

k

8.90%

6.40%

5.30%

4.70%4.99%4.60%

3.56%3.67%

3.68%

3.40%

2.70% 2.70% 2.20%1.81% 1.56%

1.92%

1.76%

5.11%5.05%

5.13%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Perc

ent o

n Tr

ansi

t

Census/ACS Journey to Work, Usual Mode

NPTS/NHTS Work Trips, Survey Day

NPTS/NHTS All Trips

NHTS 2001 Adjusted

NHTS Work Trip, Work Trip Usual Mode

Transit Mode Share Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 Cars, 1 or More Workers

0 cars, 0 Workers

2+ More Workers than

Autos

1 More Worker than

Autos

Cars is Greater Than

Workers

Cars = Workers

1 Car, 1 Worker

Mod

e Sh

are

Perc

ent

2001

2008

Transit Mode Share by Vehicle Availability

Shortage of Vehicles

Transit Mode Share by Income

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Under $15,000 $15,000-$50,000 $50,000+

Mod

e Sh

are

2008

2001

1995

Transit Market Share by Car Availability

32.5%

15.6%

3.3%13.7%

14.4%

7.2%

13.4%

2008

0 Cars, 1 or More

Workers

0 Cars, 0 Workers

2+ More Workers than Autos

1 More Worker than Autos

Cars is Greater than Workers

Cars = Workers

1 Car, 1 Worker

34.9%

9.7%

8.2%15.4%

11.2%

9.4%

11.2%

2001

0 Cars, 1 or More

Workers

0 Cars, 0 Workers

2+ More Workers than Autos

1 More Worker than Autos

Cars is Greater than Workers

Cars = Workers

1 Car, 1 Worker

Vehicle Availability

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Vehi

cles

per

Vehicles per worker

Vehicles per person 16 and older

Vehicles per person

Vehicles per driver

Declining Zero-Vehicle Households?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Per

cent

NPTS/NHTS Census ACS

Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS ,NPTS,U.S. Census Bureau and 2002-09 ACS

Household Vehicle Ownership DistributionHousehold Percents

National Household Vehicle Ownership Distribution, 2009

HH Vehicles Number of Adults in HH1 2 3 4 5+ All

0 5.79% 2.28% 0.38% 0.19% 0.05% 8.69%

1 20.40% 10.18% 1.31% 0.33% 0.06% 32.28%

2 3.66% 29.04% 2.92% 0.62% 0.08% 36.32%

3 0.74% 9.06% 3.72% 0.78% 0.09% 14.39%

4 0.21% 2.58% 1.54% 0.82% 0.13% 5.30%

5+ 0.14% 1.40% 0.82% 0.49% 0.17% 3.02%

All 30.96% 54.54% 10.69% 3.23% 0.58% 100.00%

20.66% More cars than adults

54.16% Cars equals adults

16.50% Fewer cars than adults

8.69% Zero cars

Time Spent in Travel per Day

49.2 62.8

71.2

84.5

76.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1983 1990 adj. 1995 2001 2008

Min

utes

Mean Household Income Received by Each Quintile1967 to 2008

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

Lowest fifth Second fifth

Third fifth Fourth fifth

Highest fifth

Census, 2008 dollars

PMT by Income Quintile

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1983 1995 2009

Ann

ual P

er P

erso

n PM

T

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

PMT and VMT per Capita by Age

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

140002001 Per Capita VMT

2008 Per Capita VMT

Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue

Home Ownership Levels at New Lows …

The New York Times,May 2011

Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue

UPDATE: Gas Prices, Economy Leave Retailers With Mixed May Sales

WSJ, 2011

Americans got used to staycations during the recession, but as the economy begins to recover many are now ready to graduate to the short-stay getaway…

AP, May 2011

Role of Communications Technology• 30% of couples meet online, eHarmony is responsible for 5% of

all marriages

• Holiday shoppers spent 12% more on line in 2010 than 2009

• 85% of Americans own cell phones, 25% of households have gone cell phone only

• 51% of Americans 12 years of age or older have a Facebook account

• There was a 21% increase in online course enrollment in colleges across the country in 2010

• Households with teenage children had 5.2 online purchases and 4.2 home deliveries per month according to NHTS

• Blockbuster and Borders fail

• Post Office contemplates 5 day mail delivery

Socio-Demographic Issues Aging population

• Saturation of female labor force participation

Different young adult behaviors

Slowing migration - locked in homes/less mobile

Reduced immigration

Income/wealth impact

• Changing household composition

• Slowing of suburbanization?

System Supply Issues Future system supply and speed

• Energy and other costs

• Environment/climate concerns

• Evolving technology impacting travel

• Etc.

Technology• Communication substitution• Cost of travel• Energy/environmental impact

Travel Demand

Transportation Supply• Mode options• Performance (capacity/speed, cost, safety, etc)

Transportation Revenues

Economy• Income

Population• Number• Characteristics• Locations

Societal Goals and Objectives

Outline

Travel Behavior

Transportation Infrastructure & Service Costs

DisclaimerWe haven’t been able to predict

Who will win the next election, Which movie or TV show will be popular, What will be the hot Christmas gift, or, Which stocks (if any) will do well this year.

The level of understanding and the amount of data regarding

transportation has never been better, yet we shouldn’t apologize

for uncertainty regarding predictions of the future.

But we should plan for uncertainty.

Thus, Future Travel Demand is:

[THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK]

Improve Transportation

Systems and Travel

Support Economic Vitality

Protect and Preserve the Environment and Quality of Life and Promote

Energy Conservation

Conflicting Goals?

Transportation Impacts Everything

The complexity of transportation decision making results from applying holistic thinking to transportation planning.

The contentiousness of transportation decision making derives from these often being partisan issues

Environment, health, safety, mobility, accessibility, equity, climate change, employment, economic competitiveness, image, land use, choice, etc.

40

Top National Transportation Priority

SafetyMultimodalismSustainableIntermodalismCoordinationOne DOTEconomic DevelopmentEfficiencyIntelligent

Transportation LivabilityJobsMobilityAccessibility? ? ?

Key Issues

Unprecedented uncertainty

Behavior, demographics, economic growth, technological change, governance, etc.

A disconnect between industry defined needs and political/public will

An inability to discern between worthy and imprudent projects

Finding a Consensus on

Transportation Funding is

Challenging

According to a new study by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, new Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards that mandate cars and light trucks

average 54.5 mpg by 2025 will deprive federal highway projects of more than $65 billion in revenues.

AutoBlog, August 1, 2011

Money, Money, Money

90100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250

Pro

duce

r Pric

e In

dex

Valu

e

PPI for Highway and Street / Non Residential Construction

PPI for Highway and Street Construction

PPI for Non Residential Construction (New Index - Includes Highway & Street Construction and Heavy Construction)

Cost of Transportation

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Pric

e pe

r Gal

lon

($)

US Average Price of Diesel No. 2

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Siz

e of

Wor

kfor

ce (0

00s)

Florida Heavy Construction Employment and Total Unemployment Rate

Heavy Construction Employment

Florida Total Unemployment Rate

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Perm

its Is

sued

Mon

thly

Val

ue ($

Billi

ons)

Value of Residential Building Permits Issued in Florida

Value of Residential Permits Issued

Florida Residential Permits Issued

Cost Issues

Right of way costs

Costs of planning, design, engineering, project management

Differential impact of costs trends by mode?

Key Issues

• While fundamental laws of physics, human nature, economic principles, etc., have not changed -- a lot has.

• Transportation is more complex and more controversial than previously.

• Uncertainly is unprecedented.

• Planning has to seek out robust solutions.

Some things don’t go as planned.

As You Plan for the Future, Remember:

51

Thank

You

Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D.polzin@cutr.usf.edu813-974-9849 (w)813-416-7517 (c)