planning tools for linking rural development and transportation
TRANSCRIPT
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Planning Tools for LinkingRural Development and
TransportationBrian J. Morton, University of North
CarolinaJohn Poros, Mississippi State University
June 14, 2016
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WORKSHOP OVERVIEWGreat towns and regions deserve planning tools that inspire the imagination on fine and broad scales
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GOALProvide an introduction to a suite of quantitative and qualitative tools that help you …
imagine an area’s future economy, land uses, streetscapes, and transportation system
and …
rigorously compare performance of different development scenarios
Overview
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CONTENTSI. Acknowledgments and previous workII. Study areaIII. Current planning challenges and initiatives in small
communities and rural areasIV. Livability analyses
I. Build-out: current zoning and denser zoningII. Bicycle suitabilityIII. Renderings
V. Scenario analyses conducted with a land use – travel demand model
VI. Wrap-Up
Overview
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND PREVIOUS WORK
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A Regional Land-Use Transportation Decision Support Tool for Mississippi
Colleagues and Sponsor• Joe Hugey and Yi Chen,
North Carolina State University• STRIDE Project 2012-
003S
http://www.stride.ce.ufl.edu/uploads/docs/STRIDE_2012-003S_FinalReport_BrianMorton1.pdf
Overview
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7
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STUDY AREA: NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI
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Four Counties
Study Area
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Tanglefoot Trail®
Study Area
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Northeastern Mississippi Automotive Cluster
Study Area
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Mississippi Hills NationalHeritage Area
Study Area
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PLANNING CHALLENGES AND INITIATIVES IN SMALL TOWNS AND RURAL AREAS
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Challenges & initiatives
SUSTAINABILITY
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Provide More Transportation Choices
1. Invest in bicycle and pedestrian networks
2. Strengthen transit3. Increase Coast Transit
Authority’s ADA paratransit program to include commuters
Value Communitiesand Neighborhoods
1. Create healthy, safe, walkable neighborhoods
2. Foster a responsible food system
3. Connect communities to the waterfront
PLAN FOR OPPORTUNITY: SELECTED PRIORITIES
Challenges & initiatives
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Challenges & initiatives
PERFORMANCE-BASED PLANNING
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Challenges & initiatives
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Challenges & initiatives
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Population Change in Study AreaCounty Pop. 1990 Pop. 2000 Pop. 2010 Pop. 2015 1990 - 2015
Chickasaw 18,085 19,447 17,392 17,328 NegativeLee 65,579 75,664 82,910 85,300 PositivePontotoc 22,237 26,811 29,957 30,908 PositiveUnion 22,085 25,344 27,134 28,429 Positive
Challenges & initiatives
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Challenges & initiatives
Furniture Industry in Northeast MS
Furniture Industry 2013 vs 2010
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Challenges & initiatives
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MISSISSIPPI PULLS FOR AUTO
Challenges & initiatives
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Challenges & initiatives
ACTIVE TOURISM
“Access to the Trace brings more people into the city to shop, dine and play. They spend their money here and it boosts our revenue.” Mike Cooper, Mayor of Covington, LA
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Challenges & initiatives
HERITAGE TOURISM
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Challenges & initiatives
LIVABILITY
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LIVABILITY ANALYSES(FINE SCALE)
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SCENARIO ANALYSES CONDUCTED WITH A LAND USE – TRAVEL
DEMAND MODEL (BROAD SCALE)
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Analytical Tool
• Overview• Look and feel• How we built it• How it works
Scenarios
• Relationship to CommunityViz analyses• Two Towns Scenario• Four Towns Scenario• Results
SECTION CONTENT
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LAND USE – TRANSPORTATION INTERACTIONS
A B
D C
Say we have an area consisting of 4 analysis zones: A, B, C, and D.Here is the highway network connecting the zones.
We plan to build a light-rail line connecting zones B and D. This will impact the overall travel in our region.
We would specifically like to analyze the impact on future location of households and jobs in our region, i.e. how the future land use will look.
We obtained regional forecasts of future growth of jobs…... and households.
Our land use model will tell us where these jobs and households will locate….
In addition, as a result of the new transportation capacity and improved travel times, certain zones may became more attractive, causing re-location of existing jobs and households.
The new land use can then be used in a travel demand model as a basis for trip generation and trip distribution. In this example, the new locations of jobs and households will produce more travel on links connecting zones B, C, and D, including the new light-rail line.
Credit: TELUM, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Overview
We know the current locations of jobs and households…
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TRANUS MODELING PLATFORM• TRANUS: integrated land use and travel demand model
• Open-source software (Tomás de la Barra, Modelistica)
• Model simulates economy, employment, population, housing, locations of jobs and housing, and daily travel
• Provides insight into how change in land use may change travel
• Predicts consequences of hypothetical or anticipated growth (or decline)
Model overview
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WHY TRANUS?• Our study area does not have a travel demand model,
but we want link-level flows
• We want to predict land use in response to employment and population growth …reflecting market forces and community’s development vision
• CommunityViz does not have requisite sophistication
Model overview
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STUDY AREA
Look & feel
•Census block groups in four counties comprising a commuting zone•Gateways for
commute trips that cross perimeter and start/end within 60-mile buffer
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EMPLOYMENT SECTORS
Look & feel
•3 industries•Auto manufacture is part of “Other industries”
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POPULATION SECTORS
Look & feel
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HOUSING SECTORS
Look & feel
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Look & feel
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ROADNETWORK
Look & feel
Base scenario,year 2000
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ROADNETWORK
Look & feel
Tanglefoot Trail and bicycle connectors (red links) included in growth scenarios
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ECONOMIC INTERACTION• Employers demand labor provided by households• Households residing in the four counties• Households residing outside the four counties but within
a 60-mile buffer
• Population sectors demand:• Commercial goods and services• Housing
• Single-family, multifamily, and manufactured homes• Housing of various size (floor space)
Look & feel
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DEMANDS FOR LABOR
Look & feel
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WORKERS COMMUTE INTO AND OUT OF FOUR CORE COUNTIES
Look & feel
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DEMANDS FOR COMMERCIAL GOODS AND SERVICES AND FOR HOUSING
Look & feel
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TRIP PURPOSES• Home-based work
• Home-based commercial
• All other home-based trips
• Internal-external commute
• External-internal commute
Look & feel
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Look & feel
TRAVEL DEMAND PARAMETERS
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How we built it
DATA SOURCES• Major roads file from TransCAD
(Roads shapefile from MS DOT is an alternative)
• U.S. Census Bureau• Boundary shapefiles• Census 2000• 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package• Public Use Microdata Sample• American Community Survey• LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES)
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How we built it
DATA SOURCES (2)• American Housing Survey
• Consumer Expenditure Survey
• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
• Benchmark Input-Output Data
• National Household Travel Survey
All needed data are in the public domain
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How we built it
TABULATIONS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES• Households
• Size• Configuration (married, kids, etc.)• Employed/unemployed adults
• Housing consumption• Building type• Floor space (size)
• Demand coefficients• Labor• Commercial goods and services• Housing
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How we built it
TABULATIONS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES (2)• Travel demand parameters• Trip generation rates• Time-of-day proportions• Average vehicle occupancy• Vehicle operating costs• Values of time
• Number of person trips• Trip purpose• Time of day
• External commuting trips
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LAND-USE MODULE: TWO HIGHLIGHTS1. Explicitly represents exchanges in the regional
economy:a. Labor marketsb. Commercial goods and servicesc. Housing
2. Predicts trip distribution: Quantity of a commodity consumed in one zone that is supplied by producers in that zone, zone 2, zone 3, etc.
How it works
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TRAVEL DEMAND MODULE: TWO HIGHLIGHTS1. Travel is induced by economic exchanges:
a. Businesses hire labor commute tripsb. Households purchase stuff shopping trips
2. Multimodal:a. Carb. Walkc. Biked. (Study area does not have fixed-route transit)
How it works
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SCENARIOS: BASIC QUESTIONWhat are livability/sustainability implications of the growth induced by northeastern Mississippi automotive cluster … when growth could occur in the form envisioned by the Wellspring Project (New Albany and Tupelo) …or when growth could occur in an alternative form that may provide geographically broader support for heritage/active tourism?
Scenarios
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SCENARIOS: FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES• Growth is concentrated in Tupelo and New Albany,
towns nearest Toyota’s factory and associated suppliers: Two Towns Scenario
• Growth is dispersed more evenly, occurring in Tupelo, New Albany, Houston, and Pontotoc:Four Towns Scenario
Scenarios
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ASSUMPTIONS COMMON TO BOTH SCENARIOS• Manufacturing jobs increase in census block groups containing
Toyota’s factory and Tier 1 suppliers in the four core counties
• Households increase to provide new manufacturing workers
• Commercial jobs increase to provide goods
and services demand by new households
• Households further increase to provide new commercial
workers
Scenarios
Regional economic multiplier
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ASSUMPTIONS COMMON TO BOTH SCENARIOS (2)• Pre-growth manufacturing jobs, households, and ag/natural-
resources jobs stay in place
• Pre-growth commercial establishments allowed to move
• Locations of new commercial establishments are unconstrained but
are attracted to census block groups that are targets for household
growth
• Tanglefoot Trail opens
• Bicycle-oriented connectors are built in trail towns
Scenarios
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GUIDANCE FROM COMMUNITYVIZ ANALYSES• CommunityViz assessed “new zoning” build-out
scenario• Increased density near downtowns• Increased multifamily housing
• Therefore, in the Two Town and Four Town scenarios:• Number of new households should not exceed amount
allowed by “new zoning” build-out• Locations of new households should match “new
zoning”
Scenarios
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GROWTH SCENARIO
Scenarios
Auto manufacturing employment growth occurs in selected places
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GROWTH SCENARIO
Scenarios
Population growth occurs in selected places
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KEY RESULTS: VMT PER PERSON• Two Towns Scenario:
compared to base scenario (year 2000),daily VMT per person decreases by 0.74
• Four Towns Scenario:compared to base scenario (year 2000)daily VMT per person decreases by 0.19
Essentially same daily VMT per person
Scenarios
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RESULTS: LEVEL OF SERVICE IN TWO TOWNS SCENARIO
Scenarios
Levels of service A – CLevels of service D - H
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RESULTS: LEVEL OF SERVICE IN FOUR TOWNS SCENARIO
Scenarios
Levels of service A – CLevels of service D - H
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WRAP-UP
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TAKE-HOME MESSAGES• To activate neighborhoods, build modestly dense
infill (7+ DUA) near existing residential and commercial developments
• Tie residential development to trails
• Visualize changes to streetscape
• CommunityViz is powerful but labor-intensive
Wrap-Up
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TAKE-HOME MESSAGES• Reimagine places at different scales: from block to
region (commuting zone)
• A multimodal travel demand model is good – necessary for fair, quantitative assessment of benefits of different transportation investments, but …
• A multimodal travel demand model that is integrated with a regional economics land use model is much better because it also features:
• Economic development dashboard
• Projections reality check
Wrap-Up
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DASHBOARD• Base-year data on employment, population,
housing, transportation infrastructure, and public transit (if any) are all in one place
• Base-year data on employment, population, and housing are consistent with each other
• Economic multipliers are built-in, allowing predictions of secondary effects (indirect and induced)
Wrap-Up
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DASHBOARD (2)• Growth scenarios are communicated clearly
• Integrated model predicts increased demand for and supply of commercial goods and services• Quantity• Location
• Integrated model predicts increased demands for housing: • Building type• Location
Wrap-Up
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PROJECTIONS REALITY CHECK• Predicted traffic congestion provides an early
warning about need for investments in transportation infrastructure or other ways of providing for mobility and accessibility
• Predicted population growth is consistent with predicted employment growth and vice versa
Wrap-Up
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PROJECTIONS REALITY CHECK (2)Integrated model predicts locations of employment, population, and housing reflecting market forces and community’s development vision
Wrap-Up