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PLANNING VARIABLE DEVELOPMENT AND METHODOLOGY

Regional Transportation Commission Of Southern Nevada (RTC)

Metropolitan Planning Organization 600 South Grand Central Parkway, Suite 350

Las Vegas, Nevada 89106

March 2016

Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada

2014 Planning Variables Page i

Acknowledgement The land use forecasting is the result of the collaborative efforts of the Land Use Work-ing Group and the RTC of Southern Nevada. RTC wishes to recognize and extend its appreciation to Land Use Working Group (LUWG), which includes the following organizations and individuals for their valuable assistance in the development of planning variables (PV) projections: Clark County (Comprehensive Planning Department) City of Las Vegas (Planning and Development Department) City of North Las Vegas (Planning and Development Department) City of Henderson (Community Development Department) These organizations have been instrumental in assisting defining the planned land use categories for the RTC's Travel Demand model socioeconomic data need. LUWG also set the initial residential densities or dwelling units for future population estimates prior to land development planning. Each LUWG member then developed its planned land use data in 5-year increment from 2015 through 2040. After the PV was developed, the members were involved in the quality control process. The principal points of contact from each organization were: Mario Bermudez, Clark County (Comprehensive Planning Department) Richard Wassmuth, City of Las Vegas (Planning and Development Department) Johanna Murphy, City of North Las Vegas (Planning and Development Department) Andrew Powell, City of Henderson (Community Development Department). RTC would like to express its appreciations to the following LUWG members for their input and participation in the planning process:

Ayoub Ayoub: Southern Nevada Water Authority Bob Scales, Parsons Transportation Group Bill Murray: Las Vegas Water District Brian MAnallen: Las Vegas Chamber Darci Mayer: Clark County JJ Peck: CBER Mark Silverstein: McCarran Airport Richard Baldwin: Clark County School District Rick Schroder: City of Las Vegas Shane Ammerman: Clark County Steve Burda: Clark County School District Victor Rodriguez: Nellis Air Force Base


2014 Planning Variables Page ii

Table of Contents

Table of Contents .............................................................................................................ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................... iii List of Maps .....................................................................................................................iv 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 5 2. DATA SOURCE HIGHLIGHTS FOR PV CREATION ........................................... 6

2.1 Data Structure of PVs .................................................................................... 6

3. DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION .................................................................... 8

3.1 Base Year Land Use and Population ............................................................. 8 3.2 Future Year Land Use Forecast ................................................................... 10 3.3 Future Year Population Development ........................................................... 13 3.4 Benchmark ................................................................................................... 17

4 DEVELOPMENT OF EMPLOYMENT .................................................................... 18

4.1 Base Year Employment ................................................................................ 18 4.1.1 DETR Address Information & Address Matching ...................................... 18 4.1.2 Category Translation – DETR Industry Code to TDF Model Employment Category ............................................................................................................. 20 4.1.3 Post Processes (Headquarter Issue) ......................................................... 20 4.2 Future Year Employment .............................................................................. 21

5 QUALITY CONTROL AND VALIDATION OF DEVELOPMED PLANNING VARIABLES (POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT) .......................................................... 23

6. SPECIAL GENERATORS .................................................................................. 24 7. SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ................................................................................... 25 8. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 26 9 ATTACHMENT1 EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES by PARSONS ........................... 47 10 ATTACHMENT2 EMPLOYMENT EQUIVALENCY TABLE-following Attachment 1


2014 Planning Variables Page iii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Planning Variable Data Structure ....................................................................... 7 Table 2 GILIS Land Use Code ........................................................................................ 9 Table 3 Summary of Residential Use and Population for Year 2014 ........................... 10 Table 4 SNRPC/RTC Planned Land Use Categories .................................................... 11 Table 5 Acreage Projected for Development for Year 2015 – Year 2040...................... 12 Table 6 Residential Development Captured .................................................................. 14 Table 7 Projected Population Growth by Entity ............................................................. 15 Table 8 Projected Population by Entity.......................................................................... 16 Table 9 Comparison with CBER Control Total .............................................................. 17 Table 10 DETR 2014 2rd Quarter Employer Data ......................................................... 18 Table 11 2014 CCSN Employment Data ....................................................................... 20 Table 12 DETR 2014 2rd Quarter Employer Data ......................................................... 21 Table 13 Summary of Address Matched DETR 2014 2rd Quarter Employer Data ........ 22 Table 14 Acreage to Employment Factors .................................................................... 23 Table 15 Employment/Passengers of NAFB, MIA, IIA .................................................. 24 Table 16 UNLV and NSC Employment and Enrollment ................................................ 25 Table 17 CCSN Enrollment ........................................................................................... 26


2014 Planning Variables Page iv

LIST OF MAPS

Map 1 -- RTC 1658 Traffic Analysis Zones and Jurisdictions for TDF Model ................ 27 Map 2 -- RTC Year 2015 Land Use .............................................................................. 28 Map 3 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2015 - 2020 ............................................. 29 Map 4 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2020 - 2025 ............................................. 30 Map 5 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2025 - 2030 ............................................. 31 Map 6 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2030 - 2035 ............................................. 32 Map 7 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2035 - 2040 ............................................. 33 Map 8 -- 2015 Population in Traffic Analysis Zones ...................................................... 34 Map 9 – 2015-2020 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ................................. 35 Map 10 -- 2020-2025 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones .............................. 36 Map 11 -- 2025-2030 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones .............................. 37 Map 12 -- 2030-2035 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................. 38 Map 13 -- 2035-2040 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................. 39 Map 14 -- 2015-2040 Total Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ..................... 40 Map 15 -- 2015 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 41 Map 16 -- 2020 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 42 Map 17 -- 2025 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 43 Map 18 -- 2030 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 44 Map 19 -- 2035 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 45 Map 20 -- 2040 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones .... .................. 46 Map 21 -- 2014 Employment in Traffic Analysis Zones ................................................. 47 Map 22 – 2014-2015 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................ 48 Map 23 -- 2015-2020 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................... 49 Map 24 -- 2020-2025 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................... 50 Map 25 -- 2025-2030 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones .......................... 51 Map 26 -- 2030-2035 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones .......................... 52 Map 27 -- 2035-2040 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................... 53 Map 28 -- 2014-2040 Total Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones................... 54 Map 29 -- 2014 Employment Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ...................... 55 Map 30 -- 2015 Employment Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ...................... 56 Map 31 -- 2020 Employment Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ...................... 57 Map 32 -- 2025 Employment Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ...................... 58 Map 33 -- 2030 Employment Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ...................... 59 Map 34 -- 2035 Employmnet Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones .. .................. 60 Map 35 -- 2040 Employmnet Density (Job/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones .. .................. 61


2014 Planning Variables Page 5

1 INTRODUCTION

This document provides the methodology and procedures used in the development of RTC Planning Variables (PV) for the RTC Travel Demand Forecasting (TDF) Model (2016 re-lease). One of the most important TDF model inputs is socioeconomic/land use data. There are two parts to the development of the land use forecast: 1) determining the current and future land use development patterns and 2) converting the land use patterns to the plan-ning variables (PV) that are inputs to the travel demand forecast model. It is widely acknowledged that land use forecasting is a complex process. “All of the land use models currently in use in the United States, from the most sophisticated to the simplified, still ap-pear to leave substantial uncertainty in their forecasts, requiring careful attention, the intro-duction of expert knowledge, and the expenditure of the significant amounts of time.” (Mak-ing the Land Use Transportation Air Quality Connection, Appendix B, pg B-2) Recognizing the complexity of land use forecasting, the Southern Nevada Regional Plan-ning Coalition (SNRPC)1 formed a Land Use Working Group (LUWG) at the request of Re-gional Transportation Commissions of Southern Nevada (RTC). LUWG is responsible for providing forecasted land use activity for the RTC. The LUWG consists of planning staff from Clark County and the cities of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, and Henderson The SNRPC has provided consensus regarding the methodology for population and hous-ing unit projections developed by LUWG in year 2003. The group’s charge is to define planned land development in 5-year increments using LUWG defined land use classifica-tions which were specifically designed to address the data needs of PV development. The LUWG product is the land use forecast for the years of 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 , 2035 and 2040 as growth based on the vacant land for the Clark County Assessor’s 2014 closed roll parcels (July 2014). Since GILIS 2015 came out during PV processing, the PV is devel-oped based on GILIS 2015 parcel data and the planned land uses from 2020-2040.

1 In its 1997 session, the Nevada State Legislature enabled the formation of the Southern Nevada Regional

Planning Authority (SNRPA). There are ten members in the Coalition membership and Board. Two elected officials are appointed by the governing body of each public entity (except Boulder City and the Clark County School District with one appoint member each). The SNRPC conducts some of its business through sub-committees.



2. DATA SOURCE HIGHLIGHTS FOR PV CREATION

The PV tables are developed using the sources listed below.

1) Base Year Land Use: Clark County Department of Comprehensive Planning’s 2014 Geographically Integrated Land Use Information System (GILIS) Data (July 1, 2014 as cut-off date);

2) 2013 5-year American Community Survey; 3) Future Year Land Use: SNRPC LUWG March 2015 developed land use growth

plans in 5-year increment from year 2015 through year 2040, which is briefly de-scribed in the future land use forecast section;

4) Land Use Classification: Current Clark County Department of Comprehensive Plan-ning’s 2014 Geographically Integrated Land Use Information System (GILIS) table (table 2);

5) Planned Land Use Classification: LUWG defined future planned land-use category (table 4);

6) Employment Data: Nevada State Department of Employment, Training and Rehabili-tation (DETR) 2014 2nd Quarter employer data;

7) Population and Employment Control Totals: Population Forecasts: Long-Term Pro-jections for Clark County, Nevada 2015-2050, June 4, 2015;

8) Data from various agencies/institutions’ staff and web sites, including Nellis Air Force Base (NAFB), McCarran International Airport (MIA), University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV), Nevada State College (NSC), Community College of Southern Nevada (CCSN), Clark County School District (CCSD);

9) Aerial photographs from Clark County Geographic Information System Management Office (GISMO);

10) Commercial Real Estate Agency (CBRE).

2.1 Data Structure of PVs

PVs are the land use input for Travel Demand Forecast (TDF) model. The RTC’s TDF model requirements dictate inputs identified in the PV structure. The PVs are aggregated to the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) which were developed for travel demand forecasting purpose. Table 1 lists the current required structure.



NO FIELD DESCRIPTION

1 TAZ Unique Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) number

2 District District number the TAZ falls in. Currently ranging from 1 through 17.

3 GrpQtr_Population Population by Group Quarters

4 Population Resident Population without Group Quarters

5 Total_Population Total population - Both Resident Population plus Group Quarters

6 Dwelling_Units Total Dwelling Units including Vacant Units

7 Occupied_HH Occupied Dwelling Units only

8 Total_Emp Total Employment including Special Generators

9 Hotel_G_Emp Hotel Employment - Gaming Only

10 Hotel_NG_Emp Hotel Employment - Non Gaming Only

11 Constru_Emp Construction Employment

12 Goods_P_Emp Goods Production Employment

13 Ware_H_Emp Ware Housing Employment

14 Food_Dr_Emp Food Distribution Employment

15 Super_C_Emp Super Market Employment

16 Retail_Emp Retail Employment

17 Office_G_Emp Office - Government Employment

18 Office_P_Emp Office - Private Employment

19 Medical_Emp Medial Employment

20 Other_Emp Other Employment

21 School_Emp School Employment

22 Open_S_Emp Open Space /Parks Employment

23 Open_S_Parks Open Space /Parks TAZ Indicator ( 1=Open Space in TAZ does exist)

24 NAFB_Emp Nellis Air Force Base employment (special generator and hard coded)

25 MIA_Emp McCarran Int'l Airport employment (special generator and hard coded)

26 MIA_PassMcCarran Int'l Airport average daily passengers (special generator and

hard coded)

27 IVPH_Emp Ivanpah Int'l Airport employment (special generator and hard coded)

28 IVPH_PassIvanpah Int'l Airport average daily passengers (special generator and

hard coded)

29 UNLV_Main_Emp UNLV main Campus Employment (special generator and hard coded)

30 UNLV_Main_Enroll UNLV main Campus Enrollment (special generator and hard coded)

31 UNLV_NLV_EmpUNLV North Las Vegas Campus Employment (special generator and

hard coded)

32 UNLV_NLV_EnrollUNLV North Las Vegas Campus Enrollment (special generator and

hard coded)

33 NV_State_College_EmpNevada State College Campus Employment (special generator and

hard coded)

34 NV_State_College_EnrollNevada State College Campus Enrollment (special generator and hard

coded)

35 School_F18_Enroll Student enrollment in 1st through 8th grades

36 School_F912_Enroll Student enrollment in 9th through 12th grades

37 College_F13_EnrollStudent enrollment in higher education (practically Community College

of Southern Nevada only) (special generator and hard coded)

38 College_F13_EmpCommunity College of Southern Nevada Employment (special

generator and hard coded)

39 CONV_SPACE Square feet of convention space

40 LOCATION Location Code: 1 = CBD, 2 = Resort Corridor, 3 = Urban, 4 = Suburban

41 CBD CBD Code: 1 = CBD, 0 = None CBD

42 STRIP Strip Code: 1 = Strip, 0 = None Strip

43 Median_Income Household medium income ( 2013 dollars)

44 JURIS_ID

Jurisdiction IDs: 1=Lower Kyle Canyon, 2=Lone Mountain, 3=Las

Vegas, 4=North Las Vegas, 5=Sunrise Manor, 6=NAFB, 7=Summerlin

South, 8=Spring Valley,9=Winchester, 10=Paradise, 11=Whitney,

12=Enterprise, 13=Henderson, 14=Unincorporated

Table 1 Planning Variable Data Structure



3. DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION In general, the RTC’s PV development converts GILIS 2014 parcel land use data and SNRPC planned future land use 2015-2040 to PVs (see table 1 for details) for base and future years respectively with the exception of base year employment. The base year em-ployment is processed from DETR 2014 2nd quarter employer data. The RTC’s PV creation process includes following activities: 1) obtain and prepare base year population from GILIS 2014 parcel data provided by Clark County Department of Comprehensive Planning; 2) obtain and prepare future land use 2015-2040 forecasts through working with SNRPC LUWG; 3) establish jobs/acreage conversion method and factors; 4) develop PV; and 5) validate PVs. Post processes such as control total bench-mark and LUWG review/quality control were performed as necessary. The part of PV information which is not land use-based is acquired through other means and integrated into the final PV product. Nellis Air Force Base (NAFB), McCarran Interna-tional Airport (MIA), Ivanpah International Airport (IIA), University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV) - the main campus and North Las Vegas campus, and Nevada State College (NSC), are treated as special generators in TDF model. Their employments are not includ-ed in the employment categories in PV creation process. The method to derive special generators’ relevant employment and passengers is described in the next section. The school enrollment is discussed in the section entitled SCHOOL ENROLLMENT.

Methodology and procedures of developing population, and employment are presented be-low.

3.1 Base Year Land Use and Population

Every year in June the Assessor’s office defines an official version (closed roll) of parcel geography along with AoExt (the parcel attributes database), etc. for the year. The version is submitted to and certified by the State of Nevada. The current base year land use is the Assessor’s 2014 closed roll parcel. It contains two parts: the parcel geography and AoExt. AoExt is the parcel attribute database which includes land use. The copy of AoExt, called GILIS database, is maintained by Clark County Comprehensive Planning Department. It contains verified and corrected Assessor’s parcel information and additional information for planning purpose. The GILIS 2015 data is developed by keeping the Assessor’s parcel ge-ography and some attributes. The parcel geography is linked with AoExt data through par-cel number. During the GILIS data creation process, information such as zip code and cen-sus tract are added to the parcel attributes table. The units for condominium (an example of the one-to-many relationship among parcel geography and GILIS database) are calcu-lated by assigning total units to the corresponding single parcel’s capacity in parcel geog-raphy. The RTC base year PVs are developed using the GILIS 2014 data. Each parcel in the par-cel geography is assigned to a TAZ. The parcel capacity in GILIS data is the number of dwelling units in the case of residential uses. The dwelling units, occupied dwelling units



and population are obtained based on GILIS land use code and are aggregated to TAZ level. Table 2 lists the GILIS land use code and definition. Table 3 is the summary of residential use and population for year 2014 by entities.

Table 2 GILIS Land Use Code

GILIS LAND USE CODE LAND USE DESCRIPTION

FROM TO

110 190 Residential

195 195 Common Area

198 198 Residential

199 199 Residential - Other

210 211 Manufacturing (food, etc.), R&D (electronic, etc)

215 215 Industrial

220 220 Mining

230 230 Heavy Equipment

240 259 Storage - Warehouses & Outdoor, etc., Ind. Condos.

260 260 Industrial Condos

310 311 Hotel w/ Resort

312 321 Hotel&Motel

325 325 Casino

330 330 Laundromat, copying center, etc.

331 331 Hospital

335 335 Prof. & Business Services (medical, accountants, etc.)

336 336 Day Care

338 339 Financial (bank, etc.), Data Processing Center

340 341 Entertainment Facilities (theater, race track, etc.)

345 345 Indoor Recreation (pool parlors, athletic area, etc.)

346 349 Outdoor Recreation (Driving Range, Golf Course, etc.)

350 350 Regional Shopping Center

355 355 Neighborhood Shopping Center

358 358 Department Stores, etc.

359 359 Convenient Stores

360 360 Restaurants

365 365 Food & Beverage Business (Distributor)

370 370 Auto Dealship

371 371 Auto Rapair

372 372 Auto Wrecking Yard

375 375 Auto Service

378 378 Sale of building&construction supplies and services

380 380 RV Park

385 385 Commercial Condos

399 399 Other Commercial Activities, i.e. Race Track

410 410 School

411 411 Trade School

420 420 Church

430 430 Libraries, Post Offices, etc.

431 431 Cemetries

440 440 Parks

450 450 YMCA, Red Cross, United Way

451 451 Social, community organizations

460 460 Gov Facilities - Animal Control



GILIS LAND USE CODE LAND USE DESCRIPTION

FROM TO

461 461 Gov. offices

462 462 Gov. Support services

463 463 Police, fire stations

466 466 Military Facilities

470 470 Community centers

499 499 Gov. Offices

510 530 Agriculture, Ranching

610 610 Communication & Utility Office

611 611 Transmission Facilities

613 613 Print Communication

620 620 Shipping Terminals, Depots, Stops, Freight Docks, etc.

621 621 Parking lot, garage

630 631 Major Utility Facilities

710 730 Minor Improvements

900 900 Right of Way

0 0 Vacant

Table 3 Summary of Residential Use and Population for Year 2014

Entities Dwelling Units Occupied Dwelling Units Population

Boulder City 7,077 6,879 15,853

Henderson 118,849 111,971 284,968

Las Vegas 243,865 227,181 619,419

Mesquite 9,489 7,785 18,525

North Las Vegas 79,225 71,958 233,806

Unincorporated Clark County 375,002 348,767 929,672

Total 833,507 774,541 2,102,241

3.2 Future Year Land Use Forecast

The future year land use forecast was created through the work of the Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition (SNRPC) Land Use Workgroup (LUWG) with the members representing the cities of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson, Boulder City, Clark County and the RTC. The workgroup was formed to develop a consensus based process to define future land use development plans for the RTC’s transportation planning process. Based on the available vacant land of the Assessor’s 2014 closed roll parcel, the group created GIS data of planned land development using the SNRPC/RTC planned land use development definition. This future land use is in 5-year increments by jurisdiction covering the years from 2015 through 2040. It contains acreage and residential density or dwelling units for each development. Table 4 provides the LUWG defined planned land use catego-ries. Table 5 is the summary of planned land use acreage by jurisdiction.



Table 4 SNRPC/RTC Planned Land Use Categories

# SNRPC/RTC Planned Land Use

Category Description

1 SF Residential - Single Family

2 MF Residential - Multi Family

3 Hotel Hotel

4 RRet Retail – Regional

5 CRet Retail – Community

6 NRet Retail – Neighborhood

7 Office Office

8 School School

9 OS Open Space

10 Ind Industrial

11 Other_Non Everything Else



Table 5 Acreage Projection for Development for Year 2015 – Year 2040

Year Entity Residential Non_Residential Total

2014 - 2015

Las Vegas 264.9 23.8 288.7

N. Las Vegas 54.5 729.3 783.8

Unincorporated CC 535.1 2,374.7 2,909.8

Henderson 308.4 187.3 495.7

Subtotal 1,162.9 3,315.0 4,478.0

2015 - 2020

Las Vegas 2,599.7 644.7 3,244.4

N. Las Vegas 1,006.1 6,418.5 7,424.6

Unincorporated CC 1,547.1 1,515.6 3,062.7

Henderson 1,474.7 1,628.3 3,103.0

Subtotal 6,627.6 10,207.2 16,834.7

2020 - 2025

Las Vegas 2,401.5 1,436.2 3,837.7

N. Las Vegas 1,543.5 2,109.5 3,652.9


Henderson 1,388.3 2,576.3 3,964.6

Subtotal 9,812.6 8,150.5 17,963.1

2025 - 2030

Las Vegas 2,489.6 1,671.8 4,161.4

N. Las Vegas 598.6 2,728.6 3,327.2


Henderson 1,315.1 2,094.6 3,409.7

Subtotal 5,986.7 10,444.5 16,431.2

2030 - 2035

Las Vegas 1,473.8 836.2 2,310.0

N. Las Vegas 1,402.1 6,235.4 7,637.5


Henderson 1,083.9 1,822.8 2,906.8

Subtotal 4,962.7 10,046.4 15,009.1

2035 - 2040

Las Vegas 1,791.3 1,072.7 2,864.0

N. Las Vegas 186.7 638.5 825.1

Unincorporated CC 959.4 981.6 1,941.1

Henderson 1,926.2 1,731.4 3,657.6

Subtotal 4,863.5 4,424.2 9,287.8

Total

Las Vegas 11,020.8 5,685.3 16,706.2

N. Las Vegas 4,791.4 18,859.7 23,651.1


Henderson 7,496.7 10,040.7 17,537.4

Subtotal 33,416.0 46,587.8 80,003.8



3.3 Future Year Population Development

Given the acreage and units, the planned land use development had to be converted into population by multiplying occupancy rate and household size. The occupancy rate is provided by Clark County Department of Comprehensive Planning and it is estimated by postal ZIP code geography. The household size is based on 2010 census data by census tract. By applying the following formula, information such as dwell-ing units, occupied dwelling units, population was obtained on parcel level. Occupied Dwelling Units = Dwelling Units * Occupancy Rate Population = Occupied Dwelling Units * Household Size The parcel level data are then processed with GIS to get the data for each of the 1658 in-ternal Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs). The population is divided by the occupied household in each TAZ to obtain the average household size for each perspective TAZ. With the recovery from Recession, construction activities have been resumed throughout the Las Vegas valley. The LUWG members realized that the planned land use from each entity missed out some of these developments. Using the information provided by Real Es-tate agencies and obtained from builders websites, RTC recaptured part of on- going resi-dential developments and included them in the population projections. Table 6 is the list of residential developments that have been identified and added to the population projections. Table 7 and table 8 show the projected growth and population projections by entities re-spectively.



Table 6 Residential Developments Captured

Community Type Unit Plan Year TAZ

Driftwood Bay SF 74 2020 870

Spanish Ranch SF 33 2020 958

At San Severo SF 100 2020 773

Encore at Buffalo SF 32 2020 833

Mesa Bella SF 50 2020 774

Reserves at Buffalo SF 40 2020 1498

Ashmore SF 74 2020 832

Delano SF 88 2020 250

Eagle Ranch SF 35 2020 1264

Emerald Crest SF 42 2020 106

North Creek SF 35 2020 54

Stonegate SF 199 2020 954

Sandstone SF 35 2020 138

Summerglen SF 40 2020 1514

Mateo SF 63 2020 875

Barcelona SF 18 2020 1502

Eagle Crest SF 54 2020 870

Horizon Park SF 31 2020 185

Madison Cove SF 33 2020 1498

Madison Hills SF 30 2020 1498

Monte Bello SF 50 2020 286

Encanterra SF 80 2020 832

Montecito in Summerlin SF 39 2020 250

Cielo SF 92 2020 286

Stetson Trails SF 53 2020 955

Constellation at Downtown Summerlin MF 88 2020 264

Elysian at the District MF 360 2020 1018

Elysian West ( Elysian at Hacienda) MF 466 2020 773

Somerset Hills Complex MF 296 2020 1184

Extara MF 376 2020 831

Westcliff MF 70 2020 437

SW MF 310 2020 831

Union MF 338 2020 642

Wyatt MF 308 2020 875

Residence at Paseo MF 164 2020 1033

Residence at Tropicana MF 270 2020 1522

Solana MF 204 2020 831

The Martin MF 90 2020 870

TBD MF 204 2020 774

The Mercer MF 175 2020 1519



Mesa Bella SF 50 2025 774

Reserves at Buffalo SF 47 2025 1498

Ashmore SF 74 2025 832

Delano SF 87 2025 250

Eagle Ranch SF 35 2025 1264

Emerald Crest SF 42 2025 106

North Creek SF 35 2025 54

Sandstone SF 35 2025 138

Summerglen SF 35 2025 1514

Mateo SF 63 2025 875

Eagle Crest SF 54 2025 870

Monte Bello SF 50 2025 286


Montecito in Summerlin SF 39 2025 250

Cielo SF 91 2025 286




Total units 6295



Table 7 Projected Population Growths by Entities

Existing

Growth

Projecte

d Land

Use

Growth

TotalExisting

Growth

Projecte

d Land

Use

Growth

TotalExisting

Growth

Projecte

d Land

Use

Growth

Total

Boulder City 0 0 0 96 0 96 237 0 237

Unincorporated CC 0 15,351 15,351 8,666 14,436 23,103 21,419 38,649 60,068

Las Vegas 0 19,636 19,636 4,261 18,109 22,370 12,041 51,523 63,564

N. Las Vegas 0 7,962 7,962 1,850 7,604 9,454 5,961 24,179 30,140

Henderson 0 10,899 10,899 897 10,118 11,014 2,344 25,746 28,090

Subtotal 0 53,847 53,847 15,770 50,266 66,036 42,001 140,098 182,099

Boulder City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Las Vegas 0 14,451 14,451 1,684 13,556 15,240 4,718 37,889 42,607

N. Las Vegas 0 15,382 15,382 431 14,676 15,106 1,325 43,928 45,253

Henderson 0 10,462 10,462 337 9,714 10,051 872 24,062 24,934

Subtotal 0 61,317 61,317 5,635 57,557 63,191 14,264 156,595 170,858

Boulder City 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 0 68


Las Vegas 0 17,543 17,543 1,766 16,231 17,997 7,449 46,421 53,870

N. Las Vegas 0 6,576 6,576 348 6,300 6,648 2,166 19,682 21,848

Henderson 0 10,653 10,653 725 10,092 10,817 3,174 24,830 28,004

Subtotal 0 46,283 46,283 8,045 43,472 51,517 28,659 119,509 148,168

Boulder City 0 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 110

Unincorporated CC 0 4,254 4,254 879 4,014 4,893 8,374 11,188 19,561

Las Vegas 0 10,786 10,786 219 9,581 9,800 5,207 28,005 33,212

N. Las Vegas 0 12,918 12,918 0 12,352 12,352 1,668 38,138 39,806

Henderson 0 10,597 10,597 0 10,041 10,041 2,332 25,380 27,712

Subtotal 0 38,555 38,555 1,098 35,989 37,087 17,689 102,712 120,401

Boulder City 0 0 0 0 0 0 171 0 171

Unincorporated CC 0 5,166 5,166 784 4,894 5,678 12,069 13,949 26,019

Las Vegas 0 13,628 13,628 208 12,253 12,460 8,003 36,160 44,163

N. Las Vegas 0 2,960 2,960 0 2,800 2,800 2,915 8,516 11,430

Henderson 0 9,352 9,352 0 8,882 8,882 3,894 22,614 26,508

Subtotal 0 31,105 31,105 992 28,829 29,821 27,053 81,238 108,291

Boulder City 0 0 0 96 0 96 586 0 586


Las Vegas 0 76,043 76,043 8,138 69,729 77,867 37,418 199,998 237,416

N. Las Vegas 0 45,798 45,798 2,629 43,731 46,361 14,034 134,443 148,477

Henderson 0 51,963 51,963 1,959 48,847 50,806 12,615 122,632 135,248

Subtotal 0 231,107 231,107 31,540 216,113 247,653 129,666 600,151 729,817

Unincorporated CC: include unincorporated areas both in the Las Vegas valley and outlying areas. It also includes NAFB.

2035

2040

Year Entity

Dwelling Unit Occupied Dwelling Unit Population

Total

2020

2025

2030



Table 8 Projected Populations by Entities

Year EntityDwelling

Unit

Occ.

Dwelling

Unit

Populatio

n

Group

Quarters

Populatio

n

Total

Population

Boulder City 7,097 6,949 15,556 455 16,011

Unincorporated CC 389,742 365,797 958,670 14,474 973,144

Las Vegas 244,783 230,533 624,603 4,108 628,711

N. Las Vegas 79,764 73,343 236,947 1,395 238,342

Henderson 120,504 114,593 290,179 1,253 291,432

Total 841,890 791,216 2,125,956 21,685 2,147,641

Boulder City 7,097 7,046 15,793 455 16,248

Unincorporated CC 405,093 388,899 1,018,739 14,474 1,033,213

Las Vegas 264,419 252,903 688,167 4,108 692,275

N. Las Vegas 87,726 82,797 267,087 1,395 268,482

Henderson 131,403 125,607 318,269 1,253 319,522

Total 895,737 857,252 2,308,055 21,685 2,329,740

Boulder City 7,097 7,046 15,793 455 16,248


Las Vegas 278,869 268,143 730,774 4,108 734,882

N. Las Vegas 103,108 97,904 312,340 1,395 313,735

Henderson 141,865 135,658 343,203 1,253 344,456

Total 957,054 920,443 2,478,913 21,685 2,500,598

Boulder City 7,097 7,046 15,861 455 16,316


Las Vegas 296,413 286,140 784,644 4,108 788,752

N. Las Vegas 109,684 104,552 334,188 1,395 335,583

Henderson 152,518 146,475 371,207 1,253 372,460

Total 1,003,337 971,961 2,627,081 21,685 2,648,766

Boulder City 7,097 7,046 15,971 455 16,426


Las Vegas 307,199 295,941 817,856 4,108 821,964

N. Las Vegas 122,602 116,904 373,994 1,395 375,389

Henderson 163,115 156,517 398,919 1,253 400,172

Total 1,041,892 1,009,047 2,747,482 21,685 2,769,167

Boulder City 7,097 7,046 16,142 455 16,597


Las Vegas 320,826 308,401 862,019 4,108 866,127

N. Las Vegas 125,562 119,704 385,424 1,395 386,819

Henderson 172,467 165,399 425,427 1,253 426,680

Total 1,072,997 1,038,868 2,855,773 21,685 2,877,458

Unincorporated CC: include unincorporated areas both in the Las Vegas valley and outlying areas.

2030

2035

2040

2015

2020

2025



3.4 Benchmark

It was decided by the LUWG that the Clark County 2015 through 2040 population esti-mates published by UNLV CBER in June 2015 were used as benchmarks or control totals. Therefore the population numbers projected from the land-use planning process described in the above section were adjusted by a factor to match the CBER’s published control to-tals. Please note that benchmark process may cause small population changes at TAZ level while the occupied dwelling units remain unchanged. Table 9 and chart 1show the projections by LUWG and CBER.

Table 9 Comparison with CBER Control Total

Year Clark County CBER Difference

2015 2,147,641 2,146,000 1,641

2020 2,329,740 2,335,000 -5,260

2025 2,500,598 2,507,000 -6,402

2030 2,648,766 2,654,000 -5,234

2035 2,769,167 2,776,000 -6,833

2040 2,877,458 2,887,000 -9,542

Chart 1 Population Projection by LUWG and CBER



4. DEVELOPMENT OF EMPLOYMENT

4.1 Base Year Employment

The base year employment is not acreage factored but developed from Nevada State De-partment of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation (DETR) employer data. The DETR 2014 2nd quarter employer data are used to generate the year 2014 employment data for modeling purpose. The process consists of: 1) address matching with GISMO street center line; 2) translating DETR employer code to TDF modeling categories; 3) aggregating the employment to TAZ by category; and 4) post processing. The details are described in the following sections.

4.1.1 DETR Address Information & Address Matching

There are total of 51,430 records in the DETR 2014 2nd quarter employer database. Of those, 44,863 (87%) of them are reported with address. Some establishments reported the total employment to a single address. Of the 44,711 addressed establishments, 43,875 (98%) are within our Travel Demand Forecast (TDF) modeling domain. The addresses in the database are examined and standardized to the addresses with matching issues. For example, those streets that have address match problems caused by their names in the DETR database need to be standardized before the address match process: Las Vegas Blvd., Casino Center Blvd., and Casino Dr. Warm Springs, Sunset, and Russell addresses are re-matched with ZIP codes for the reason that these street names are used by both the Clark County and the City of Henderson. The matching results that have 80 % less match-ing score and employment is more than 150 are manually checked with Google map, GISMO and aerial photo. The adjustments are made in TAZ level. Table 10 lists the ad-dress match summary by employment range of DETR employer data.

Table 10 DETR 2014 2nd Quarter Employer Data Address Match Summary by Employment Range

Employ-ment

Range AVG EMP

Clark County TAZ 1658 domain (Address Matched)

Estab-lish-ment PCT EMP PCT

Estab-lish-ment PCT EMP PCT

Zero; no employment 1.0 6391 14.29% 6391 0.71% 6295 14.35% 6295 0.72%

1 to 4 em-ployees 2.5 17772 39.75% 44430 4.94% 17410 39.68% 43525 4.95%

5 to 9 em-ployees 7.0 8078 18.07% 56546 6.29% 7913 18.04% 55391 6.29%

10 to 19 em-ployees 14.5 5984 13.38% 86768 9.65% 5882 13.41% 85289 9.69%

20 to 29 em-ployees 24.5 2276 5.09% 55762 6.20% 2249 5.13% 55100.5 6.26%

30 to 39 em-ployees 34.5 1024 2.29% 35328 3.93% 1004 2.29% 34638 3.94%

40 to 49 em-ployees 44.5 644 1.44% 28658 3.19% 630 1.44% 28035 3.19%



50 to 59 em-ployees 54.5 470 1.05% 25615 2.85% 463 1.06% 25233.5 2.87%

60 to 69 em-ployees 64.5 334 0.75% 21543 2.40% 326 0.74% 21027 2.39%

70 to 79 em-ployees 74.5 259 0.58% 19295.5 2.15% 255 0.58% 18997.5 2.16%

80 to 89 em-ployees 84.5 190 0.42% 16055 1.79% 187 0.43% 15801.5 1.80%

90 to 99 em-ployees 94.5 160 0.36% 15120 1.68% 160 0.36% 15120 1.72%

100 to 199 employees 149.5 674 1.51% 100763 11.21% 665 1.52% 99417.5 11.30%

200 to 299 employees 249.5 166 0.37% 41417 4.61% 159 0.36% 39670.5 4.51%

300 to 399 employees 349.5 80 0.18% 27960 3.11% 80 0.18% 27960 3.18%

400 to 499 employees 449.5 44 0.10% 19778 2.20% 43 0.10% 19328.5 2.20%

500 to 599 employees 549.5 31 0.07% 17034.5 1.89% 29 0.07% 15935.5 1.81%

600 to 699 employees 649.5 16 0.04% 10392 1.16% 13 0.03% 8443.5 0.96%

700 to 799 employees 749.5 21 0.05% 15739.5 1.75% 20 0.05% 14990 1.70%

800 to 899 employees 849.5 16 0.04% 13592 1.51% 13 0.03% 11043.5 1.25%

900 to 999 employees 949.5 8 0.02% 7596 0.84% 7 0.02% 6646.5 0.76%

1000 to 1499 employees 1249.5 26 0.06% 32487 3.61% 25 0.06% 31237.5 3.55%

1500 to 1999 employees 1749.5 6 0.01% 10497 1.17% 6 0.01% 10497 1.19%

2000 to 2499 employees 2249.5 10 0.02% 22495 2.50% 10 0.02% 22495 2.56%

2500 to 2999 employees 2749.5 10 0.02% 27495 3.06% 10 0.02% 27495 3.12%

3000 to 3499 employees 3249.5 6 0.01% 19497 2.17% 6 0.01% 19497 2.22%

3500 to 3999 employees 3749.5 2 0.00% 7499 0.83% 2 0.00% 7499 0.85%

4000 to 4499 employees 4249.5 1 0.00% 4249.5 0.47% 1 0.00% 4249.5 0.48%

4500 to 4999 employees 4749.5 3 0.01% 14248.5 1.58% 3 0.01% 14248.5 1.62%

5000 to 5499 employees 5249.5 1 0.00% 5249.5 0.58% 1 0.00% 5249.5 0.60%

6000 to 6499 employees 6249.5 1 0.00% 6249.5 0.69% 1 0.00% 6249.5 0.71%

7000 to 7499 employees 7249.5 1 0.00% 7249.5 0.81% 1 0.00% 7249.5 0.82%

7500 to 7999 employees 7749.5 1 0.00% 7749.5 0.86% 1 0.00% 7749.5 0.88%

8000 to 8499 employees 8249.5 3 0.01% 24748.5 2.75% 3 0.01% 24748.5 2.81%

8500 to 8999 employees 8749.5 1 0.00% 8749.5 0.97% 1 0.00% 8749.5 0.99%

Total* 44,710 100% 864,248 100% 43,874 100% 845,103 100%

*employment for CCSD is not included in this table.



4.1.2 Category Translation – DETR Industry Code to TDF Model Em-ployment Category

An equivalency table to convert DETR employer industry code to TDF model employment category was created by assigning each of employment categories in the DETR employer database to the appropriate TDF modeling employment category. The RTC staff previous-ly developed the equivalency table which was later modified by Parsons Transportation Group (PTG). This equivalency look up table was used in the employment data conversion process and is attached in Appendix 1.

4.1.3 Post Processes (Headquarter Issue)

Clark County School District Employment (CCSD) -- CCSD reported all employment at the district office address (5100 W. Sahara Ave) and actually only 269 people are working at this address. The number of employees working at each school site in school year 2014-2015 and non_school site were provided by CCSD. The process for assigning this em-ployment is completed by geocoding the school and non_school site address, assigning the address to a TAZ and then allocating school employees to School employment catego-ry and non_school site employees to Office_G employment category by the TAZ. CSN Employment -- DETR data shows 2,500-2,999 employees at West Charleston cam-pus. The number received from CSN is 2,439 in total. The estimated allocation of employ-ees among CSN’s three main campuses (Cheyenne, Charleston and Henderson) is listed in table 11.

Table 11 2014 CCSN Employment Data

Campus Address City Employment TAZ

Charleston 6375 W Charleston Blvd Las Vegas 1,204 544

Cheyenne 3200 E Cheyenne Ave North Las Vegas 838 240

Henderson 700 College Dr Henderson 397 1101

Total 2,439

Local Governments -- The local governments, including the cities of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson and Clark County, reported all employment at a single address respec-tively. The employment number at each agency’s main location is corrected by getting spe-



cific information from the agency. Table 12 lists the total employment number with the number assigned to the main address for each agency. Some of the remaining are recov-ered based on the information provided by the jurisdiction. The rest of are left out in this process due to lack of the specific location and employment distribution information except CCSD and CSN which are handled as previously described. The left out numbers are not substantial compared to the regional total employment. Table 13 summarizes processed data by the TDF model employment category.

Table 12 DETR 2014 2nd Quarter Employer Data Employment Assigned to Headquarter Address

Agency Name Address City Zip EMP

EMP As-signed to MAIN Ad-

dress

TAZ

Clark County School District 5100 W. Sahara Ave LV 89146 35,000 269 549

Clark County 500 S Grand Central Pkwy LV 89106 8,750 1,783 528

City of Las Vegas 495 S Main St LV 89101 3,250 459 460

City of Henderson 240 S Water St COH 89015 3,250 468 1045

City of N. Las Vegas 2250 N Las Vegas BLVD NLV 89030 1,250 197 327

Las Vegas Metropolitan Police

400 S. Martin L. King BLVD

LV 89106 4,750 1100 449

Community College of S. NV 6375 W Charleston Blvd NLV 89146 2,750 1204 544

Total 59,000 5,480

4.2 Future Year Employment

Compared to population projections, the development of an employment planning variable projection and allocation is very challenging. While population data can be tracked in a rel-atively straightforward manner using dwelling unit count data from the Clark County Com-prehensive Planning and Assessor offices, the allocation of employment planning variables has to consider several factors, including:



Table 13 Summary of Address Matched DETR 2014 2nd Quarter Employer Data

By Employment Category in TAZ of Modeling Domain

Category Employment Percentage

Construction 45,045 5.3%

Food Services and Drinking Places 89,987 10.6%

Good Producing 24,476 2.9%

Hotel with Gaming 152,689 18.0%

Hotel without Gaming 13,198 1.6%

Medical 54,569 6.4%

Office_Government 28,301 3.3%

Office_Private 137,701 16.2%

Other 125,875 14.8%

Retail 113,047 13.3%

School 34,676 4.1%

Warehouse,Wholesale 21,788 2.6%

Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 7,938 0.9%

Total 849,290 100.0%

1. Number and type of employees per acre or square feet of building space, 2. Conversion factors relating property acreage and square feet of building space, 3. Location of employees compared with office address, for example, a residential

construction company may have its main office at Valley View and Russell but have hundreds of employees working at construction sites in Mountain’s Edge and Aliante,

4. Variability of employment types such as hotel, retail, office, and industrial. 5. Last but not the least, there are much more uncertainty in terms of where and what

type of employment will occur in future. In order to project initial employment distributions, non-residential acreage is converted into employment using factors derived from the analysis of data from the Clark County Asses-sor, Clark County Comprehensive Planning, and the DETR. The base year parcel data contains the information about parcel acreage, land use type and industry address. The DETR data provides the information of employer’s industry code, number of employees and address. Employment factors based on acreage were developed previously by com-bining the DETR data, with the industry codes interpreted into relevant land use types, and a base year parcel data. Table14 summarizes these factors. For samples and methods in developing the factors, refer to Regional Transportation Plan FY 2006-2030 Appendix V. The future year employment growth then was projected by applying the employment fac-tors to the projected future non-residential acreages of different land use types. The general formula is as follows:



Emp Growth = ∑ [AcG * GtN * Emp per Ac]] Where:

AcG Employment’s corresponding land use acreage growth GtN Land use’s corresponding gross to net ratio Emp per Ac Land use’s corresponding employee per acre ∑ Employment of an employment category is the total of all the land

use categories (Table 4) falls into the employment category (Table 11)

Table 14 Acreage to Employment Factors

LAND USE EMPLOYMENT

IDX LU DESCRIPTION CATEGORY Per

Acre Gross to

Net

1 Hotel Hotel (Resort Corridor) Hotel 100 0.80

2 Hotel_N Hotel (Not on Resort Corridor) Hotel 40 0.80

3 RRet Retail - Regional R_Shop 22 0.80

4 CRet Retail - Community C_Shop 22 0.80

5 NRet Retail - Neighborhood Other_Ret 22 0.80

6 Other_Non Land use not in any other categories Other_Non 20 0.80

7 Office Office Office 50 0.80

8 School School Other_Non 15 0.80

9 Hospital Hospital Other_Non 70 0.80

10 Ind Industrial Indust 12 0.80

11 OS Open Space Other_Non 0.5 0.80

Note: The Land Use is for the purpose of corresponding to the LUWG planned land use category. The Employment cat-egory is corresponding to TDF model’s employment category. The gross to net ratio is for the purpose of reducing the land needed for public facility such as ROW.

As stated already, the factors in Table 14 serve only at a starting point to project initial em-ployment information that may be adjusted during validation steps.

5 QUALITY CONTROL AND VALIDATION OF DEVELOPMED PLANNING VARIABLES (POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT)

The PV was validated on a TAZ by TAZ basis using aerial photographs from the Clark County GISMO. The intent here was to look for reasonableness in terms of how many acres were being developed between 2015 and 2040 and the estimated population and employment totals. In particular, developing employment totals for industrial, transportation, utility facilities and areas with a lot of open space are challenging and need to be carefully reviewed. The employment data was further validated by Parsons Transportation Group (PTG), see Attachments from PTG at the end of this document.



The final PV was made available to members of LUWG for quality and reality review. The questions, comments, and suggestions from the review have been addressed and incorpo-rated into the final adjustments

6 SPECIAL GENERATORS

Nellis Air Force Base (NAFB), McCarran International Airport (MIA), Ivanpah International Airport (IIA), University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV, including the main campus and North Las Vegas campus), and Nevada State College (NSC) are treated as special gen-erators in TDF model. Thus, their employments are not included in the other employment categories in the PV process. The current and future special generator relevant data is ob-tained/derived from relevant agencies, departments, and institutions. Sources include their planning staff and web sites. Table 15 lists the employment and passenger data for NAFB, MIA, and Ivanpah Airport. Table 16 lists the employment and student enrollments for UNLV and NSC.

Table 15 Employment/Passengers of NAFB, MIA, and IIA

YEAR

Nellis AFB McCarran Int'l Airport Ivanpah Airport *

(TAZ 220) (TAZ 798) (TAZ 1219)

Employees Employees Passengers

Employees Passengers

Annual Daily Annual Daily

2014 13,000 15,616 42,869,517 117,451

2015 13,400 16,172 43,663,795 119,627

2020 15,500 18,500 49,951,225 136,853

2025 18,000 21,465 57,956,540 158,785

2030 20,900 20,370 55,000,000 150,685 4,083 12,247,867 33,556

2035 24,200 20,370 55,000,000 150,685 7,677 23,032,365 63,102

2040 28,000 20,370 55,000,000 150,685 11,850 35,550,667 97,399



Table 16 UNLV and NSC Employment and Enrollment

YEAR

UNLV Main

UNLV NLV

Nevada State College

(TAZ 748)

(TAZ 77)

(TAZ 1105)

Employment Enrollment Employment Enrollment Employment Enrollment

2014 3,003 27,290 340 3,549

2015 3,100 28,375 304 3,703

2020 3,400 31,688 358 4,366

2025 3,750 35,000 412 5,028

2030 4,100 38,734 120 1,000 466 5,691

2035 4,100 38,734 500 4,500 521 6,874

2040 4,100 38,734 500 4,500 575 7,016

RTC model uses the numbers suggested by Parsons listed in Table 6 in Attachment 1.

7 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

The school enrollment number was developed with various methods. The F18, F912 and F13 in PV table represent the student enrollment numbers for the following type of schools: Clark County School District (CCSD), and Community College of Southern Nevada (CCSN). F18, F912 and F13 correlate accordingly to grades 1 through 8, grades 9 through 12, and grade 13 (CCSN only in this instance) and above respectively. The 2014-2015 school year enrollment data and employment data from CCSD are address matched and aggregated to TAZs. The employment data in TAZ level is under school and Office_G employment category. The future schools that plan to open after year 2014 are defined through the LUWG land use and future school employment is incorporated into education and office government employment category. The CCSN 2014 enrollment at three campuses (Cheyenne, Charleston, and Henderson) was obtained from CCSN, and the CCSN staff also provided the estimates for 2015, 2020 and 2023. Since no any information is available after 2023, the enrollment beyond 2023 stays unchanged. Table 17 lists the processed result for CCSN enrollment.



Table 17 CCSN Enrollment

Campus Charleston Cheyenne Henderson

Total TAZ 544 240 1101

2014 15,517 10,804 5,112 31433

2015 17,075 11,889 5,625 34589

2020 16,720 11,642 5,508 33870

2025 20,307 14,139 6,690 41136

2030 20,307 14,139 6,690 41136

2035 20,307 14,139 6,690 41136

2040 20,307 14,139 6,690 41136

8 CONCLUSION

The land use forecasting is both a complex and continuous process. Though great care and efforts were taken during the process, there are various areas within the process that could be improved upon. It is very difficult to estimate employment data for a large area such as the Las Vegas Valley under current economic situation. Given the continuous na-ture of the land use planning, more fine-tuning will occur in each of the subsequent land use updates.



Map 1 -- RTC 1658 Traffic Analysis Zones and Jurisdictions for TDF Model



Map 2 – RTC Year 2015 Land Use



Map 3 -- SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2015 – 2020



Map 8 – 2015 Population in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 9 – 2015-2020 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 14 – 2015-2040 Total Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 15 – 2015 Population Density (Pop/Acre) in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 21 – 2014 Employment in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 22 – 2014-2015 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 28 – 2014-2040 Total Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones



Map 29 – 2014 Employment Density (Job/Acre) in Traffic Analysis Zones



ATTACHMENT 1: PARSONS’ MEMO ON EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES

1

Memorandum

To: Beth Xie, Lijuan Su

From: Bob Scales, Parsons

Date: January 26, 2016

Subject: Las Vegas Valley Employment Forecasts

647882

Employment forecasts for Clark County have been prepared based on updated population forecasts prepared by

the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), historical employment relationships dependent on

population, and projections regarding the regional economic outlook for Clark County, Nevada and the hotel

accommodation and gaming industry. These forecasts update employment projections prepared for the 2007

Planning Variable data set, documented in a memorandum to the Regional Transportation Commission of

Southern Nevada (RTC) dated January 21, 2008; and the employment projections prepared for the 2010

Planning Variable data set, documented in a memorandum to RTC dated October 28, 2011, which reflected then

available population forecasts.

Like the October 28, 2011 forecast, this edition reflects employment absorption and the acreage required to

support future employment growth. This forecast is demand based rather than land availability based.

BASE YEAR EMPLOYMENT AND HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

Base year employment was established by RTC staff based on geocoded employer records obtained from the

Nevada Department of Employment Training and Rehabilitation (DETR). Second quarter June 2014 records

were used for this analysis. The 2014 employment data set includes Mesquite and Laughlin, Nevada.

The DETR Information Development & Processing Division maintains historical data regarding Las Vegas

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Clark County) workers covered by unemployment insurance. Covered

employment does not include workers in the sectors of farming, agricultural services, forestry or fisheries.

Uncovered employment also includes self-employed non-agricultural workers, some domestic workers,

members of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States, and some other workers.

The DETR maintains the employment data on an industry basis. These industries can be grouped to

approximately correspond with the employment categories used in the Travel Demand Forecast (TDF) Model.

Table 1 summarizes 25 years of historical DETR “covered” employment data, grouped into categories

approximating those used in the TDF model.

These employment data, when converted to an employment per capita basis, display very consistent

employment trends. Figure 1 illustrates the DETR industry-covered employment ratios for 1990 through 2014.

Figure 2 reports the same information at an expanded scale.

L A S V E G A S V A L L E Y E M P L O Y M E N T F O R E C A S T S

2

Table 1: Las Vegas–Paradise MSA Historical Non-Farm Employment (thousands)

Industry Job Forecast

Category Jul

2014 Jul

2013 Jul

2012 Jul

2011 Jul

2010 Jul

2009 Jul

2008 Jul

2007 Jul

2006 Jul

2005 Jul

2004 Jul

2003 Jul

2002 Jul

2001 Jul

2000 Jul

1999 Jul

1998 Jul

1997 Jul

1996 Jul

1995 Jul

1994 Jul

1993 Jul

1992 Jul

1991 Jul

1990

Accommodation Hotel1 171.9 166.4 166.6 167.5 164.1 163.2 175.1 181.1 184.6 182.4 168.6 165.4 163.2 172.0 170.5 165.2 145.4 141.0 135.8 127.9 122.5 99.5 97.9 97.3 97.7

Food services and drinking places

Hotel2 89.9 86.6 80.0 77.7 74.8 72.3 77.5 74.4 71.8 67.3 62.6 56.0 53.5 50.6 47.9 44.6 38.9 38.0 35.9 32.3 29.1 24.9 22.7 22.7 22.3

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Hotel2 19.4 18.0 18.0 17.2 16.0 16.1 18.5 18.9 18.5 18.1 18.6 18.7 17.0 17.2 17.1 16.1 15.8 15.3 15.0 13.6 13.3 12.4 11.9 11.7 11.8

281.2 271.0 264.6 262.4 254.9 251.6 271.1 274.4 274.9 267.8 249.8 240.1 233.7 239.8 235.5 225.9 200.1 194.3 186.7 173.8 164.9 136.8 132.5 131.7 131.8

Construction Industrial1 45.3 41.0 37.3 38.9 45.4 62.0 95.7 104.0 110.8 102.4 90.6 75.7 70.6 70.3 68.2 66.0 68.6 64.5 57.6 47.0 41.4 36.4 28.3 29.7 36.5

Natural resources and mining

Industrial1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3

Durable goods Industrial2 12.1 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.7 12.7 16.8 17.6 18.1 16.6 15.4 14.5 13.8 13.4 12.4 11.6 11.3 11.3 10.7 9.5 8.2 7.5 6.3 5.8 6.1

Non-durable goods

Industrial2 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.8 7.9 9.0 9.4 9.4 8.4 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.5 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.4

Transportation, warehousing and utilities

Industrial3 38.1 36.6 36.5 35.4 34.3 34.9 37.6 36.4 34.9 32.1 30.3 28.0 28.6 29.2 27.6 25.5 23.3 22.2 21.1 19.6 18.2 16.3 15.4 15.6 14.1

104.8 98.8 94.5 94.3 99.5 117.8 159.5 167.9 173.7 159.9 144.7 126.1 120.8 121.1 116.5 111.4 111.3 105.6 96.9 83.1 74.2 66.4 55.5 56.5 61.4

Administrative and support and waste

Non-retail 60.6 58.4 55.2 54.4 51.5 48.1 58.7 62.3 65.2 61.1 56.3 50.1 47.1 47.0 45.1 40.3 37.1 34.7 30.4 27.0 25.3 20.1 19.9 18.0 17.0

Other services Non-retail 26.4 24.8 24.4 23.7 23.5 23.6 25.9 25.9 25.1 24.2 24.2 20.5 20.4 20.1 18.8 18.2 16.5 16.6 14.9 13.7 12.9 11.8 11.4 11.7 11.0

87.0 83.2 79.6 78.1 75.0 71.7 84.6 88.2 90.3 85.3 80.5 70.6 67.5 67.1 63.9 58.5 53.6 51.3 45.3 40.7 38.2 31.9 31.3 29.7 28.0

Information Office1 10.2 10.0 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.5 10.8 10.9 11.5 10.1 10.4 10.2 12.0 13.2 14.0 12.5 10.2 9.3 8.3 7.9 7.1 6.5 6.1 5.8 6.2

Finance and insurance

Office1 24.1 24.3 23.7 22.7 23.3 24.4 26.6 28.1 29.4 30.3 28.5 27.2 25.1 25.2 23.5 22.3 20.9 19.6 19.3 17.5 16.0 14.6 13.2 12.5 11.0

Real estate and rental and leasing

Office1 19.4 18.8 18.1 17.2 16.9 17.3 20.9 21.9 21.1 19.4 18.0 16.7 16.5 15.9 14.8 14.5 14.3 14.5 12.9 12.1 11.4 10.1 10.1 9.8 10.1

Professional, scientific and technical

Office1 35.9 34.5 32.7 32.6 32.6 33.3 36.9 38.2 38.0 33.4 31.3 29.3 27.0 26.0 23.1 21.7 20.7 19.2 18.4 17.5 16.7 15.0 14.3 14.9 15.1

Management of companies

Office1 16.8 15.9 15.5 14.1 14.1 13.3 14.2 13.1 11.2 8.3 7.2 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7

Education and health services

Office2 82.4 78.8 74.9 72.3 69.1 67.4 66.2 63.3 59.3 57.5 53.8 50.1 47.8 45.0 40.6 37.5 35.2 33.3 31.7 29.8 27.8 26.0 24.1 22.9 20.3

Government Office3 90.9 89.3 89.3 89.0 93.2 93.1 95.9 91.6 85.9 81.5 77.5 75.1 71.7 68.6 65.9 62.0 58.6 53.8 50.4 47.6 45.1 43.0 42.7 38.8 36.0

279.7 271.6 263.4 257.1 258.6 258.3 271.5 267.1 256.4 240.5 226.7 214.3 205.5 199.0 186.2 174.6 163.5 153.4 144.5 135.5 127.2 118.2 113.5 107.6 101.4

Wholesale Retail 21.2 20.5 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 24.1 24.2 23.7 22.2 20.5 19.9 19.9 19.8 17.8 17.1 16.5 15.7 14.9 13.4 12.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.7

Retail Retail 101.9 98.9 96.5 93.4 92.9 90.6 99.4 99.4 96.7 93.7 88.7 83.0 80.0 79.1 73.5 69.2 65.5 60.4 56.1 51.4 48.1 43.9 44.0 42.8 41.5

123.1 119.4 116.7 113.7 113.3 111.7 123.5 123.6 120.4 115.9 109.2 102.9 99.9 98.9 91.3 86.3 82.0 76.1 71.0 64.8 60.1 54.1 54.4 53.5 52.2

875.8 844.0 818.8 805.6 801.3 811.1 910.2 921.2 915.7 869.4 810.9 754.0 727.4 725.9 693.4 656.7 610.5 580.7 544.4 497.9 464.6 407.4 387.2 379.0 374.8

TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES 875.8 844.0 818.8 796.5 791.8 810.3 910.2 921.2 915.7 869.4 810.9 754.0 726.1 724.5 693.2 656.7 610.6 580.8 544.5 498.0 464.6 407.5 387.1 379.2 375.0

Source: Nevada and Metro CES Reports—1990 to Current, Research & Analysis Bureau, Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation (http://www.nevadaworkforce.com/?PAGEID=4&SUBID=159) October 5, 2015


3

Figure 1: Employment/Population Ratio by Industry, including Total (1990–2014)

0

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

TOTAL

Hotel1

Retail

Hotel2

Office1

Office3

Non-retail

Office2

Industrial1

Industrial3

Industrial2

Year

Ra

tio

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hotel2 Industrial1 Industrial2 Industrial3 Office1 Office2 Office3 Retail Non-retail Total EmpHotel1


4

Figure 2: Employment/Population Ratio by Industry (1990–2014)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ra

tio

Year

Hotel1 Hotel2 Industrial1 Industrial2 Industrial3 Office1 Office2 Office3 Retail Non retail

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0

Hotel1

Industrial2

Industrial3

Office2

Non-retail

Hotel2

Office3

Industrial1

Office1

Retail

Industrial2

Industrial3

Industrial1

Office2

Non-retailOffice3

Office1Hotel2

Retail

Hotel1


5

The graphics illustrate that the hospitality industry grows in waves characterized by large expansions followed

by tapered growth. The pattern of growth was disrupted by the events of September 11, 2001, but stabilized

thereafter to 2005. From 2005 to 2010, the trend was negative, as indicated by the graphics. Overall, the growth

trend in the hospitality industry is negative relative to overall population growth in Clark County.

The graphics also illustrate that growth in most of the job categories is remarkably flat or constant when viewed

on a per capita basis. Employment in the Industrial_1 sector (construction) was growing slightly on a per capita

basis until 2006, but has since declined. As of 2014, Hotel_2 (food and drinking establishments) and Office_2

(health and education) employment are the only industry sectors that have exceeded their previous 2006

employment per capita high points.

POPULATION FORECASTS

Population forecasts are prepared annually by the CBER at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. The projection

issued on June 5, 2014, covering the period from 2014 through 2050, was used for this analysis

Table 2 compares the six most recent population forecasts prepared by CBER. The table indicates that the

population forecast, which was more conservative through the recession, is increasing as the economy

improves, but remains far below earlier forecasts prepared by CBER.

Table 2: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research Population Forecast

Year

Population Forecast

6/8/2009 4/19/2010 5/27/2011 6/19/2012 7/11/2013 6/5/2014

2010 2,122,000 2,039,000 1,951,269 1,951,269 1,951,269 1,951,269

2015 2,446,000 2,214,000 2,195,000 2,112,000 2,085,000 2,148,000

2020 2,715,000 2,418,000 2,409,000 2,365,000 2,224,000 2,307,000

2025 2,933,000 2,639,000 2,600,000 2,545,000 2,365,000 2,436,000

2030 3,126,000 2,876,000 2,786,000 2,699,000 2,506,000 2,574,000

2035 3,313,000 3,129,000 2,967,000 2,848,000 2,648,000 2,716,000

2040 3,502,000 3,394,000 3,153,000 2,999,000 2,793,000 2,863,000

2045 3,688,000 3,665,000 3,352,000 3,149,000 2,946,000 3,019,000

2050 3,851,000 3,926,000 3,559,000 3,291,000 3,104,000 3,182,000

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research

Figure 3 presents a broader view of the CBER population forecasts extending back in time to forecasts prepared

in 2005. This family of forecasts reflects increasing optimism, adjusting the forecasts upward between 2005 and

2007, revising the forecasts downward during the recession years from 2009 to 2013, and again slightly upward

in 2014.

With respect to the 2035 planning horizon year, the 2014-era population forecasts are significantly lower than

those predicted during the boom years of 2005 through 2007, and slightly lower than the end of recession

forecasts prepared in 2010 and 2011.


6

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research

Figure 3: Clark County Population Forecasts

EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS

Table 3 presents two sets of employment forecasts for the year 2040 (one computed by CBER and the other

projected by Parsons), and the forecasted employment growth between the base year 2014 and the horizon year

2040. The CBER forecasts are based on complex econometric modeling. The Parsons forecasts are based on

simple relationships between population and employment (as reported by DETR), and 25 years of trend line

data.

Insofar as land use planning, the 2014-era CBER year 2040 horizon projection of 1,657,513 jobs (excluding

military) is much higher than Parsons’ projection of 1,259,700 jobs. A significant reason for this difference is

that the base year 2014 estimate of jobs is far different—1,141,767 (excluding military) by CBER versus

875,800 by DETR. As mentioned previously, the DETR employment counts reflect jobs covered by

unemployment insurance, and do not include workers in the sectors of farming, agricultural services, self

employed, and some other workers. The DETR employment data is used for travel demand forecasting purposes

because it can be tied to a physical location.

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

Fo

recast

Year

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2007

2006

2005


7

Table 3: Comparison of Clark County Employment Forecasts

As the physical location of the DETR employment is based on second quarter June 2014 data by individual

employer, the July 2014 estimates of employment by industry sector are used for the Parsons trend line

forecasts. For reference, the DETR estimate of “annual” employment for Clark County was 940,006 for

calendar year 2014. This annual employment estimate reflects an unemployment rate of 7.8 percent, based on a

labor force estimate of 1,019,653 for 2014.The labor force estimate reflects a labor force participation rate of

48.5 percent of the 2014 estimated Clark County population of 2,102,238.

With respect to the 2040 forecast, Parsons assumes a labor force participation rate of 48.5 percent of the 2040

population, estimated by CBER to be 2,863,000, and an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent. The resulting

estimate of annual employment for 2040, as a control total, is 1,319,127. Converting this to a July 2040 estimate

Job Forecast Category Industry

CBER Parsons 2014–2040

Percent Growth

2014 2040 Growth 2014* 2040 Growth CBER Parsons

Hotel 1 Accommodation 271,278 365,755 94,477 171,900 240,500 68,600

Hotel 2 Food 89,900 120,200 30,300

Hotel 2 Arts 35,695 51,570 15,875 19,400 28,600 9,200

306,973 417,325 110,352 281,200 389,300 108,100 35.9% 38.4%

Industrial 1 Construction 61,213 131,311 70,098 45,300 97,300 51,600

Industrial 1 Mining & forest 2,700 2,033 (667) 400

Industrial 2 Goods 21,584 21,950 366 21,000 28,600 7,600

Industrial 3 Warehousing 43,082 68,685 25,603 38,100 51,500 13,400

128,579 223,979 95,400 104,800 177,400 72,600 74.2% 69.3%

Non-retail Administration 84,707 142,390 57,683 60,600 126,000 39,000

Non-retail Other 50,749 67,903 17,154 26,400

135,456 210,293 74,837 87,000 126,000 39,000 55.2% 44.8%

Office 1 Professional 232,552 315,756 83,204 106,400 143,200 36,800

Office 2 Education 11,602 17,136 5,534 82,400 131,700 49,300

Office 2 Health 85,019 174,910 89,891

Office 3 Government 92,941 102,811 9,870 90,900 126,000 35,100

— Military 12,921 11,932 (989) N/A

435,035 622,545 187,510 279,700 400,900 121,200 43.3%

— (Excluding Military) 422,144 610,613 188,499 44.6%

Retail Wholesale 26,518 40,798 14,280 21,200 166,100 43,000

Retail Retail 122,127 154,505 32,378 101,900

148,645 195,303 46,658 123,100 166,100 43,000 31.4% 34.9%

TOTAL 1,154,688 1,669,445 514,757 875,800 1,259,700 383,900 43.8%

(Excluding Mlitary) 1,141,767 1,657,513 515,746 45.2%


8

yields 1,229,026 jobs, a number which is nearly identical to the estimate of 1,259,700 jobs reflected in Table 3,

based on historical trend line projections.

Incremental job growth is based on the following assumptions.

• Hotel The number of hotel accommodation jobs is based on estimates of annual visitors divided by 290,

yielding a room requirement, and estimates of employees per room for expected hotel developments

having a high probability of occurrence. As of the end of CY 2014, the visitor per room ratio stood at

273, indicating a significant oversupply of rooms for current market conditions. A visitor to room ratio

of 290 or above indicates strong market conditions, which prompts increases in supply.

The annual incremental growth of visitors is assumed to be 500,000 per year, yielding an annual level

of 55 million visitors by year 2040.

Arts, entertainment and recreation jobs are assumed to grow at the same pace as the accommodation job

sector.

Food services and drinking place jobs are assumed to grow proportionally with population increases.

• Industrial Durable and non-durable goods production jobs are assumed to grow modestly, proportional to

population increases.

A sustainable level of construction employment is assumed, absent a return to boom market mentality.

• Non-retail, Office, Retail Growth assumptions are proportional to population increases, based on 1990 to 2014 employment to

population trends (see Figure 1).

Table 4 lists the employment forecasts in five-year increments covering the 2015 to 2040 planning horizon.

DETR non-farm employment for July 2014 is also summarized from Table 1 for reference. Table 5 presents the

subsector employment forecasts for the same five-year planning increments.

Table 4: Preliminary Clark County Employment Forecasts

Model Category

DETR Parsons

2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Hotel 281,200 287,700 310,200 328,600 348,100 368,300 389,100

Industrial 104,800 109,200 124,300 136,700 149,800 163,400 177,400

Non-retail 87,000 89,300 97,500 104,100 111,200 118,500 126,000

Office 279,700 287,000 312,300 332,900 354,800 377,500 400,900

Retail 123,100 125,700 134,700 142,000 149,800 157,800 166,100

TOTAL 875,800 898,900 979,000 1,044,300 1,113,700 1,185,500 1,259,700

Source: Parsons, based on CBER June 5, 2014 population forecasts


9

Table 5: Subsector Employment

Hotel Subsector Employment

Year Accommodation Food and Drinking Arts Total

2014 171,900 89,900 19,400 281,200

2015 176,000 91,700 20,000 287,700

2020 190,400 98,000 21,800 310,200

2025 202,000 103,200 23,400 328,600

2030 214,400 108,700 25,000 348,100

2035 227,300 114,300 26,700 368,300

2040 240,500 120,200 28,600 389,300

Industrial Subsector Employment

Year Construction Manufacturing Transportation/Warehouse Total

2014 45,700 21,000 38,100 104,800

2015 48,800 21,500 38,900 109,200

2020 59,600 23,000 41,700 124,300

2025 68,400 24,300 44,000 136,700

2030 77,700 25,700 46,400 149,800

2035 87,300 27,200 48,900 163,400

2040 97,300 28,600 51,500 177,400

Office Subsector Employment

Year Professional Education/Health Government Total

2014 106,400 82,400 90,900 279,700

2015 108,600 85,400 93,000 287,000

2020 116,300 95,700 100,300 312,300

2025 122,600 104,000 106,300 332,900

2030 129,200 113,000 112,600 354,800

2035 136,100 122,200 119,200 377,500

2040 143,200 131,700 126,000 400,900

SPECIAL GENERATOR EMPLOYMENT

Table 9 lists the special generator employment suggested for the planning variables dataset. Parsons’

assumptions are noted below.

• Nellis Air Force Base Parsons’ estimates conform to the CBER estimates of military employment, which includes

approximately 3,750 civilian jobs.

• McCarran International Airport Parsons’ estimates reflect scheduled airline passengers and exclude charter airline passengers.

• Ivanpah Valley Airport Parsons’ estimates reflect the Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts for

FY 2014–2040.

• UNLV–Main Campus Parsons’ estimates reflect enrollment increases proportional to overall population forecasts by CBER,

with enrollment capped at 35,000 students.


10

Table 6: Special Generator Information

Source

2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

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Nellis Air Force Base 1 13,000 13,400 15,500 18,000 20,900 24,200 28,000

2 13,000 12,850 12,550 12,450 12,400 12,150 11,950

McCarran International Airport

1 117,451 15,616 119,627 16,172 136,853 18,500 158,785 21,465 150,685 20,370 150,685 20,370 150,685 20,370

2 112,600 11,300 114,700 11,550 131,200 13,200 153,100 15,400 145,200 14,600 145,200 14,600 145,200 14,600

Ivanpah Valley Airport

1 33,556 4,083 63,102 7,677 97,399 11,850

2 13,500 1,650 32,700 4,000 54,200 6,600

University of Nevada, Las Vegas—Main Campus

1 27,290 3,003 28,375 3,100 31,688 3,400 35,000 3,750 38,734 4,100 38,734 4,100 38,734 4,100

2 27,290 3,000 28,375 3,000 30,330 3,150 32,000 3,350 33,850 3,500 35,000 3,700 35,000 3,700

University of Nevada, Las Vegas—North Las Vegas Campus

1 1,000 120 4,500 500 4,500 500

2 0 0 700 100 2,650 300

Nevada State College

1 3,549 340 3,703 304 4,366 358 5,028 412 5,691 466 6,874 521 7,016 575

2 3,549 340 3,703 340 4,366 358 5,028 412 5,691 466 6,874 521 7,016 575

Source:

1 RTC, Clark County

2 Parsons, 2015


11

• UNLV–North Las Vegas Campus Parsons’ estimates reflect the revised (lower) CBER population forecasts and the “UNLV 2012 Campus

Master Plan Update,” which caps the main campus capacity at 35,000 students and 4,000 faculty/staff.

EMPLOYMENT ABSORPTION

Like the earlier land use and travel demand model translation of these employment forecasts, this planning

variable update takes into account the following two affects of the 2007–2010 economic recession:

1. Employment per gross leasable square feet has declined as employers have reduced their workforces to

match projected revenues.

2. The inventory of space available for lease has increased.

Employer Reductions of Force

Over the course of the economic recession, employers reduced the size of their work forces to trim operating

expenses. In many cases, they were not able to reduce their leased space commensurately due to the long term

duration of leases. In essence, there are fewer employees occupying the same space as when employment

peaked in 2006/2007.

Leased space information culled from multiple sources is summarized in Table 7 along with employment by

Travel Demand Model category. (The “occupied space” inventory is a consensus estimate assembled by

Parsons, based on inventories prepared by multiple real estate brokerage firms.) The table indicates that while

the occupied space has remained fairly stable between the peak of employment (July 2007) and the tail end of

the recession (July 2009), the number of employees per 1,000 square feet of space or hotel room has fallen, in

some cases by a considerable amount. The Office job category is the exception to this generalization.

Prior to allocating new lands for future employment growth, the existing occupied space will likely be

populated at a higher employee per square foot ratio, similar to that experienced in 2007.

Table 7: Clark County Employment per Occupied Space

Employment (thousands) Occupied Space3 (million square feet) Employees/Occupied Space

2007 2010 2011 2014 2007 2010 2011 2014 2007 2010 2011 2014

Hotel 274.4 254.9 262.4 281.2 132,947 148,935 150,161 150,544 2.06 1.71 1.75 1.87

Industrial 167.9 99.5 94.3 104.8 86.8 90.8 90.3 96.7 1.93 1.10 1.04 1.08

Non-retail1 88.2 75.0 78.1 87.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Office2 175.5 165.4 168.1 188.8 36.7 32.2 29.7 33.8 4.78 5.14 5.65 5.59

Retail 123.6 113.3 113.7 123.1 38.5 38.7 38.7 43.5 3.21 2.93 2.94 2.83

Sources: Grubb & Ellis, Restrepro Consulting Group, Applied Analysis, CB Richard Ellis, Colliers International, Voit Real Estate Services,

RCG Economics–UNLV, Cushman & Wakefield, Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation, Parsons 1Non-retail employment occupies some combination of industrial, office and retail space

2Excludes government

3Hotel space is rooms. Industrial space includes warehouse/distribution, light industrial, incubator and flex/R&D.


12

Insofar as the base year inventory of jobs (2014), employment by TDF model category should therefore be

increased by the factors reported in Table 8, thereby absorbing a portion of the 2014 to 2040 growth forecast

reported earlier in Table 3.

Table 8: Clark County Employment Absorption

TDF Model Category 2014 Occupied Space Residual Employees/Unit Employee Growth Absorption1

Hotel 150,544 rooms 0.19 10,900

Industrial 96.7 million sq ft 0.85 57,6002

Non-retail N/A N/A 1,200

Office (non-government) 33.8 million sq ft 0.00 0

Retail 43.5 million sq ft 0.38 16,500

Source: Parsons 1Capped at 2007–2014 job loss

2Applies to Industrial_1 and Industrial_2 categories.

Insofar as the method for allocating employment growth due to absorption, the 2014 base year employment will

be factored up, proportional to size, to reflect employee growth absorption, This approach will apply to all TDF

model category jobs except as noted below.

Table 9 indicates the number of workers employed by hotel/casinos having gaming revenues in excess of $1

million for Clark County as a whole, the Las Vegas Strip, downtown Las Vegas, Boulder Highway, Laughlin,

and the balance of Clark County.

The county as a whole lost 20,889 jobs in these gaming establishments between 2007 and 2014. Of this loss, the

distribution was uneven as indicated below. Based on this data, employee growth absorption will be confined to

the Las Vegas Strip, downtown Las Vegas, and the Boulder Highway gaming establishments.

Job Loss Percentage of Total Jobs

2007–2014 in 2007

Las Vegas Strip 9,022 8.2%

Downtown Las Vegas 1,752 14.7%

Boulder Highway 109 1.2%

Laughlin 3,615 37.4%

Balance of County 6,391 27.3%

TOTAL 20,889 12.8%


13

Table 9: Average Number of Clark County Gaming Establishment Employees1

Fiscal Year Locations Casino Rooms Food Beverage G&A Other Total

Clark County 2006 165 43,648 28,360 48,794 11,114 29,235 14,878 176,029

2007 160 40,948 26,164 43,218 11,333 25,698 15,927 163,288 2008 153 42,078 27,570 45,351 11,968 25,314 14,498 166,779

2009 149 37,545 25,205 38,393 10,718 22,463 12,279 146,603 2010 148 36,442 25,386 38,921 11,102 22,663 12,241 146,755

2011 148 36,139 26,087 38,178 11,269 23,371 11,644 146,688

2012 152 35,915 26,052 35,721 9,766 23,015 11,980 142,449 2013 150 35,036 26,228 35,958 9,606 24,745 11,739 143,312

2014 151 35,014 26,544 37,193 10,035 22,860 10,753 142,399

Las Vegas Strip

2006 40 27,248 20,739 30,372 6,776 16,828 10,946 112,909 2007 38 26,082 19,692 27,805 7,579 15,404 12,555 109,117

2008 40 27,648 20,959 30,653 8,425 15,747 11,033 114,465

2009 38 23,641 19,130 25,426 7,361 13,346 9,807 98,711 2010 39 24,061 19,822 27,179 7,801 13,769 9,995 102,627

2011 41 24,050 20,525 26,535 8,031 14,687 9,433 103,261

2012 44 23,524 19,911 23,790 6,605 15,474 8,908 98,212 2013 43 23,062 20,911 23,930 6,313 16,292 9,224 99,732

2014 45 23,162 21,117 25,492 6,855 14,660 8,809 100,095

Downtown Las Vegas area

2006 17 3,940 2,025 2,829 772 2,308 427 12,301 2007 17 3,686 1,881 2,717 782 2,452 428 11,946

2008 16 3,413 1,899 2,683 769 2,072 445 11,281

2009 16 3,166 1,704 2,451 760 1,735 568 10,384 2010 16 2,935 1,588 2,271 739 1,882 456 9,871

2011 16 2,914 1,618 2,173 728 1,864 466 9,763 2012 16 2,948 1,653 2,169 732 1,844 407 9,753

2013 16 2,995 1,620 2,119 770 1,848 414 9,766

2014 16 3,058 1,769 2,135 848 1,973 411 10,194

Boulder Highway area

2006 31 3,062 789 3,152 764 1,550 422 9,739 2007 31 2,725 597 3,047 719 1,511 563 9,162

2008 32 2,958 753 3,021 693 1,595 475 9,495

2009 32 3,177 887 3,521 900 2,010 418 10,913 2010 33 2,865 734 2,949 827 1,895 468 9,738

2011 31 2,663 704 2,847 714 1,813 386 9,127 2012 31 2,832 737 2,982 774 1,359 450 9,134

2013 31 2,764 770 3,046 778 1,829 562 9,749

2014 30 2,570 785 2,907 680 1,788 323 9,053

Laughlin 2006 10 2,707 1,692 2,441 640 2,268 490 10,238 2007 10 2,366 1,691 2,300 639 2,187 494 9,677

2008 11 2,362 1,615 2,314 623 1,660 577 9,151 2009 9 2,055 1,463 1,949 517 1,490 361 7,835

2010 9 1,749 1,314 1,639 472 1,468 312 6,954

2011 9 1,730 1,326 1,650 511 1,563 304 7,084 2012 9 1,649 1,079 1,609 459 1,508 284 6,588

2013 9 1,562 1,061 1,628 511 1,382 298 6,442

2014 9 1,536 1,018 1,510 461 1,301 236 6,062

Balance of Clark County

2006 67 6,691 3,115 10,000 2,162 6,281 2,593 30,842 2007 64 6,089 2,303 7,349 1,614 4,144 1,887 23,386

2008 54 5,697 2,344 6,680 1,458 4,240 1,968 22,387 2009 54 5,506 2,021 5,046 1,180 3,882 1,125 18,760

2010 51 4,832 1,928 4,883 1,263 3,649 1,010 17,565

2011 51 4,782 1,914 4,973 1,285 3,444 1,055 17,453 2012 52 4,962 2,672 5,171 1,196 2,830 1,931 18,762

2013 51 4,653 1,866 5,235 1,234 3,394 1,241 17,623 2014 51 4,688 1,855 5,149 1,191 3,138 974 16,995

Source: State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Gaming Abstracts—2006 through 2014 1Of gaming establishments with gaming revenue in excess of $1 million per year.


14

Vacant Space

In addition to underutilized existing leased space, there exists a substantial supply of vacant space which is

available for lease.

To develop an inventory of constructed, but vacant space, Parsons combed through realtor listings, and

compiled a database of available office, retail and industrial space. Parsons makes no warrantee regarding the

accuracy of the underlying space for lease listings, but has attempted to verify the accuracy of the geographic

representation of available floor space, based on aerial and ground reconnaissance.

Figure 4 illustrates the geographic dispersal of vacant, available for lease space as of the first and second

quarters of calendar year 2014. The graphic indicates the amount of cumulative space available by type, and

Table 10 indicates the number of employees that could be accommodated by the available space.

Summary of Land Use Requirements to Accommodate Employment Growth

Table 11 combines the results of three tables presented in this memorandum for the purpose of identifying

future land development required to accommodate employment growth. The table indicates the following:

• Hotel (Accommodation, Arts, Entertainment, Food Services)

Space is required to accommodate approximately 97,200 additional employees between 2014 and 2040.

This equates to a demand for roughly 39,400 new hotel rooms (at 1.53 employees per room on

average), plus non-hotel/casino-owned restaurants and bars employing some 30,300 persons.

• Industrial (Construction, Manufacturing and Warehousing)

No additional space is required to accommodate growth in construction. Facilities and equipment yards

exist in sufficient quantities to accommodate growth. More than 8 million square feet of new

warehousing structures will be required to service population growth.

• Non-retail (Administrative Support Services)

Services which support population growth will need to be accommodated via new construction.

Schools, medical facilities, and administrative offices fall into this space requirement.

• Office (Private Sector and Government)

Space to house approximately 100,000 additional employees will be needed between now and 2040,

commensurate with population growth, once vacant space has been (re)populated. The allocation of

space per employee is on an upward trend; hence, no less than five employees per 1,000 gross leasable

square feet should be assumed. The resulting new construction requirement is therefore approximately

20 million square feet.

• Wholesale and Retail

Space to house approximately 16,200 new workers will be needed once vacancy rates return to more

normal levels. The new retail space will likely follow new housing construction, on the outskirts of

current Las Vegas Valley development along the 215 Beltway. Approximately 8 million square feet of

new construction should be planned for over the 2015 to 2040 time horizon.


15

Figure 4: Available Office, Industrial, and Retail Space

Square Feet of Available Space

Totals by Category


16 S:\Lijuan Su\PV documents_March2016\2014 LVV Emp Forecast memo_Jan 2016_r4.docx

Table 10: Inventory of Available Floor Space and Potential Employee Accommodation

Type of Space

2014 Space Available (1,000 ft

2)

2014 Vacancy

Rate

Target Vacancy

Rate

Excess Vacant Space

(1,000 ft2)

Assumed Employee Occupancy

(per 1,000 ft2)

Potential Employee

Absorption

Office 7,952.7 19.0% 10% 3,767.0 5.50 20,700

Industrial/Warehousing 12,928.4 11.8% 6% 6,354.6 1.081 6,900

Retail/Non-retail 8,746.6 16.6% 5% 6,112.1 3.21 19,600

Sources: Rofo Office Space Search, http://www.rofo.com/NV/Las-Vegas/, Rofo.com, BuildingSearch.com, http://www.buildingsearch.com/NV/Las-Vegas/, BuildingSearch.com, Inc. cityfeet.com, http://www.cityfeet.com/LasVegasCommercialRealEstate/, LoopNet, Inc. Showcase.com, http://www.showcase.com, CoStar Realty Information, Inc. Colliers International

Table 11: Land Development Requirements

Model Category Employment Growth

2014–2040 Employee Growth

Absorption1

Vacant Space Absorption²

Net New Space Requirement (Employees)

Hotel 108,100 10,900 0 97,200

Industrial 72,600 57,600 6,900 8,100

Non-retail 39,000 1,200 9,300 28,500

Office 121,200 0 20,700 100,500

Retail 43,000 16,500 10,300 16,200

TOTAL 383,900 86,200 47,200 250,500

1See Table 5, Clark County Employment Absorption

2See Table 7, Inventory of Available Floor Space and Potential Employee Accommodation

TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL EMPLOYMENT CLASSIFICATIONS

The 2014 RTC Regional Travel Demand Model Update classifies employment into model categories which are

similar to those used for the employment forecasts, but different. Table 12 provides equivalency values and

nomenclature. The DETR July 2014 employment values are slightly different, in total, from the second quarter

2014 data used for geocoding employment to specific locations. The remainder of this analysis reflects the TDF

Model categories of employment.

DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT

Figures 5 through 9 illustrate the distribution of employment summarized by Travel Demand Model category

and traffic analysis zone (TAZ) boundaries.

Figure 5 illustrates the location of hotel employment as of 2014. The preponderance of these jobs are located

along the Las Vegas Strip as identified earlier in Table 9.

Figure 6 illustrates the location of retail, food and drink, and wholesale/supermarket jobs. It is noted that a large

number of retail, food and drink jobs are located along the Las Vegas Strip, independent from the hotel jobs

illustrated on Figure 5.


17

Table 12: Employment Nomenclature and Base Year Values

DETR Industry Employment

Forecast Category

DETR July 2014

Employment

TDF Model Category

Base Year Q2 2014 TDF Employment*

Accommodation Hotel_1 171, 900 Hotel with Gaming 152,689 Hotel without Gaming 13,198 171,900 171,900 165,887 165,887

Food Service and Drinking Places Hotel_2 89,900 Food Services and Drinking Places 89,987

89,900 89,900 89,987 89,987

Construction Industrial_1 45,300 Construction 45,045 45,300 45,300 45,045 45,045

Natural Resources and Mining Industrial_1 400 Goods Producing 24,476 Durable Goods Industrial_2 12,100 Non-durable Goods Industrial_2 8,900 21,400 21,400 24,476 24,476

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Hotel_2 19,400 Open Space 52 Administrative and Support and Waste Non-retail 60,600

Other 125,874

Other Services Non-retail 26,400 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Industrial_3 38,100 Warehousing 21,788 144,500 144,500 147,714 147,714

Information Office_1 10,200 Private Office 137,701 Finance and Insurance Office_1 24,100 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Office_1 19,400 Professional, Scientific Office_1 35,900 Management of Companies Office_1 16,800

Government Office_3 90,900 Government Office 28,301 Nellis Air Force Base (civilian) 3,750 McCarran International Airport 11,300

Education and Health Services Office_2 82,400 School 34,675 Medical 54,569 UNLV 3,000 Nevada State College 340 279,700 279,700 273,636 273,636

Wholesale Retail 21,200 Wholesale/Supermarket 7,938 Retail Retail 101,900 Retail 113,047

123,100 123,100 120,985 120,985

TOTAL 875,800 867,730

*Does not include employment located in Mesquite or Laughlin, Nevada.


18

Figure 5: Hotel Employment


19

Figure 6: Retail, Food and Wholesale Employment


20

Figure 7: Construction, Goods and Warehouse Employment


21

Figure 8: Medical, School, Open Space and Other Employment


22

Figure 9: Office Employment


23

Figure 7 illustrates the location of construction, goods producing and warehousing jobs. These are concentrated

along I-15, along the south side of McCarran International Airport, and near the junction of I-215 and

U.S. 93/95.

Figure 8 illustrates the location of medical, education and “other” types of jobs. For this graphic, McCarran

International Airport is depicted as “other” employment; however, for the TDF Model, it is a special generator,

and as such, its employment type is not a consideration.

Figure 9 illustrates the location of office employment as of the second quarter of 2014. Nellis Air Force Base is

depicted as government–office, and both civilian and military in uniform are reflected in the size of the circle

depicted on the graphic. Private office jobs are clustered along the I-15 and I-215 freeways, along the 215

Beltway in the southwest quadrant of the valley, and along the south side of McCarran International Airport.

LOCATION OF 2015–2040 GROWTH

The member entities of the Land Use Working Group (LUWG) provided RTC with geographic information

system (GIS) “shape files” of parcels available for development by land use type. RTC then aggregated the

parcel areas by TAZ and provided the sum of acreage by land use type to Parsons. Parsons subsequently

converted the acreages to employment holding capacity using the conversion factors listed in Table 13.

Table 13: Employment to Acreage Conversion Factors

IDX

Land Use Employment

LU Description Category Per Acre Gross to Net

1 Hotel Hotel (resort corridor) Hotel 100 0.80

2 Hotel_N Hotel (not on resort corridor) Hotel 40 0.80

3 RRet Retail—Regional R_Shop 22 0.80

4 CRet Retail—Community C_Shop 22 0.80

5 NRet Ret—Neighborhood Other_Ret 22 0.80

6 Other_Non Land use not in any other categories Other_Non 20 0.80

7 Office Office Office 50 0.80

8 School School Other_Non 15 0.80

9 Hospital Hospital Other_Non 70 0.80

10 Ind Industrial Indust 12 0.80

11 OS Open Space Other_Non 0.5 0.80

Source: “Planning Variable Development and Methodology,” Regional Transportation Commission of Nevada, October 2005

Figure 10 illustrates the location of 2015 to 2040 dwelling unit growth, based on the available acreage files

provided by LUWG members to RTC. The pattern of growth is similar to that assumed for the 2010 to 2035

planning variable data set; however, the magnitude of growth is less.


24

Figure 10: Dwelling Unit Growth


25

The location of hotel growth was ascertained by Parsons, based on a 10-year history of development proposals,

and the success of hotels located on the Strip versus those located elsewhere in Clark County. Specific hotel

sites were identified, as listed in Table 14, along with assumed development sizes (number of rooms and

number of employees per hotel), based on previously announced plans. The “project” names listed on the table

are placeholders as some of the projects are currently on hold or have been cancelled. Nevertheless, the

“projects” have been researched insofar as project size and composition, and reflect land entitlements.

Table 14: Hotel (Accommodation) Projects

Year Project Location TAZ Gaming Rooms Employees

2014-2015 The Cromwell 3595 Las Vegas Boulevard South 687 Yes 188 280

Wyndham 3200 West Twain Avenue 676 No 281 140

SLS Las Vegas 2535 Las Vegas Boulevard South 610 Yes 1,622 2,030

Riviera 2901 Las Vegas Boulevard South 612 Yes (2,075) (1,000)

Subtotal 16 1,450

2016-2020 Resorts World Phase 1 3000 Las Vegas Boulevard South 609 Yes 3,307 5,600

Spring Hill (South) Haven Street and Robindale Road 904 No 160 40 Residence Inn St. Rose and Maryland Parkways 1127 No 100 25

Lucky Dragon 200 West Sahara Avenue 562 Yes 206 300

Fairfield (South) Las Vegas Boulevard and Robindale Road 904 No 86 22

Residence Inn (South) Haven Street and Robindale Road 903 No 124 31 Fairfield (NW) I-95 and Ann Road 110 No 87 22

Fontainebleau 2800 Las Vegas Boulevard South 611 Yes 3,812 5,700

Subtotal 7,882 11,740

2021-2025 Alon Las Vegas 3120 Las Vegas Boulevard South 680 Yes 1,100 4,500

All Net Resort 2601 Las Vegas Boulevard South 610 No 500 500

Subtotal 1,600 5,000

2026-2030 Resorts World Phase 2 3000 Las Vegas Boulevard South 609 Yes 1,000 1,700

Resorts World Phase 3 3000 Las Vegas Boulevard South 608 Yes 1,300 2,200

Marriott Courtyard 3275 Paradise Road 613 No (149) (50)

Marriott Residence Inn 3225 Paradise Road 613 No (192) (50)

Marriott Marquis 3225 Paradise Road 613 Yes 3,500 5,250

Circus Circus Manor 2800 Las Vegas Boulevard South 607 No (810) (250)

MGM North 2800 Las Vegas Boulevard South 607 Yes 3,000 3,750

Subtotal 7,649 12,550

2031-2035 MGM Festival 2594 Las Vegas Boulevard South 607 Yes 3,000 4,500

Trump Tower 2 Fashion Show Drive 680 No 1,282 1,000

Caesars East Harmon Avenue between Audrie Street and Koval Lane

1216 Yes 3,000 4,500

MGM Village Lot 3901 Las Vegas Boulevard South 795 Yes 2,000 3,000

Subtotal 9,282 13,000

2036-2040 Edge Resort Harmon Avenue and Koval Lane 742 Yes 4,000 6,800

Edge East 370 East Harmon Avenue 744 Yes 2.745 4,600

Wild Wild West 3330 West Tropicana Avenue 733 Yes (260) (260)

Station 3300 West Tropicana Avenue 733 Yes 4,000 5,500

Subtotal 10,485 16,640

TOTAL 36,914 60,380

As evidenced by the location of employment illustrated on Figures 5 through 9, the major hotels along the Las

Vegas Strip area accompanied by concession types of enterprises, such as restaurants and retail establishments,

located on the hotel property, but not owned or employed by the hotel. Thus, the hotel accommodation

employment is accompanied by other types of employment. Figure 11 illustrates the mixture of employment

located along the Las Vegas Strip. Traffic analysis zones included in the tabulation of jobs are shaded. Overall,

167,844 jobs are located within the shaded TAZs. Of this total, 107,831 jobs are classified as hotel–gaming and

6,203 are classified as hotel–non-gaming.


26

Figure 11: Resort Corridor Employment


27

Hotel-related add-on jobs can be calculated as a percentage of hotel gaming/non-gaming jobs after removing

jobs in TAZs which are not directly associated with hotels. These include jobs located in TAZ 681 (Fashion

Show Mall), TAZ 739 (Harley Davison) and TAZ 1212 (north frontage of Convention Center Drive). The

resulting add-on jobs by type are listed below, based on 56,580 jobs at major new hotel properties.

Employment Category Add-on Percent Jobs Accompanying

Major New Hotels

Food and Drinking 20.3 11,485

Retail 8.33 4,715

Office Professional 6.76 3,825

Other 3.23 1,825

21,850

The location of the hotel employment listed in Table 14 is illustrated on Figure 12. As noted previously, the

location of hotel growth was ascertained by Parsons based on the relative success of properties located along the

Strip versus those located elsewhere in Clark County.

Figure 13 illustrates the assumed location of employment growth in the TDF model categories of retail,

wholesale trade/supermarkets, and food service and drinking places. The employment growth reflects the

absorption of new employees at existing places of employment, the absorption of vacant (previously

constructed) building space, “add-on” employment at major new hotel–casinos, and new construction on vacant

lands. Land Use Working Group (LUWG) member entities identified 4,629 acres of developable land for retail

use. Of this inventory, approximately 1,330 acres were needed to accommodate growth in these three TDF

model employment categories, taking into account growth absorption at existing places of employment and

existing space for lease, plus add-on employment at major new hotel–casinos.

Figure 14 illustrates the assumed location of employment growth in the TDF model categories of construction,

durable and non-durable goods production, and transportation/warehousing related employment. The

construction employment is assumed to occur at existing locations of construction jobs. Construction jobs

peaked in 2006 with employment numbering 110,800 as of the July benchmark. In July 2014, construction

employment stood at 45,300. Year 2040 construction employment is projected to total approximately 96,700,

and this growth has been located at existing establishments. Insofar as goods producing employment, the

number of these jobs was 28,000 in July 2006, and 21,400 in July 2014, based on DETR data. Growth in these

industries is forecast to return to levels experienced in 2006, with new jobs being located at existing goods

producing establishments.

With respect to transportation/warehousing, Figure 4 illustrated that as of the first and second quarter of 2014,

12.9 million square feet of industrial space was available for lease. About one-half of this space was assumed to

be leased in the future, accommodating 6,900 new employees at existing as-built locations. Remaining growth is

assumed to occur on approximately 1,620 acres of vacant lands identified by the LUWG members.


28

Figure 12: 2014–2040 Hotel Employment Growth


29

Figure 13: 2014–2040 Retail Employment Growth


30

Figure 14: 2014–2040 Industrial Employment Growth


31

The distribution of 2014 to 2040 employment growth in the TDM categories of education (school) and health

care (medical) services, open space, and other types of employment, are illustrated on Figure 15. “Other”

employment includes arts and entertainment, administrative/support and waste, and other types of employment

which do not fit with any other industry classification.

Growth in school employment, other than at UNLV and Nevada State College, was distributed by LUWG

supplied vacant acreage by parcel, accumulated to TAZs by Parsons. To accommodate the projected increase in

school employment, 730 acres of the available vacant inventory of 1,322 acres (net of public right-of-way) was

utilized. Growth in medical employment was assumed to occur at or in close proximity to existing locations of

health care employment. This may require redevelopment of non-medical land uses, but the assumption is based

on the clustering of medical services, which is prevalent in the health care industry.

The distribution of “other” employment was assumed to occur, in part, at existing vacant retail space that was

assumed to accommodate 9,300 new jobs (see Tables 10 and 11). A small number of new jobs (1,200) was

assumed to occur at existing locations of jobs classified as “other”; and some 1,825 “add-on” jobs were assumed

to be located at major new hotel–casinos located along the Strip. The remainder (32,600) and bulk of the 45,000

growth in “other” jobs were assumed to occur on some 780 acres of LUWG designated other vacant net acres,

plus 783 acres of LUWG designated retail net acres. Together with the acreage consumed by retail, wholesale,

and eating and drinking establishment employment growth, nearly one-half (46 percent) of the lands identified

for retail use were thus occupied.

The distribution of 2014 to 2040 growth in office employment is illustrated on Figure 16. Government–office

related growth was assumed to occur at or near existing locations of government employment. A new Federal

Justice Tower is under construction in downtown (TAZ 477), and this 129,000 square foot building is assumed

to house 500 employees when occupied.

Employment growth housed in private–office buildings was assumed to be accommodated at vacant, for lease

spaces identified on Figure 4 and Table 11 (20,700 new jobs), at major new hotel–casinos located along the

Strip (3,825 add-on jobs), and at vacant lands identified by the LUWG for future office development

(approximately 45,500 jobs). As a general guideline, vacant lands identified for future private office

development needed to be located along major transportation corridors in order to be assumed for future

employment growth, consistent with the employment pattern displayed on Figure 9. Some vacant lands in

downtown Las Vegas, along the Carson Street corridor and in Symphony Park, not otherwise identified for

development, were assumed to be developed, and to house some 4,150 jobs. Twelve hundred (1,200) jobs were

also added to TAZ 264, just east of downtown Summerlin.


32

Figure 15: 2014–2040 Other Employment Growth


33

Figure 16: 2014–2040 Office Employment Growth


34

ATTACHMENT 2: EMPLOYMENT EQUIVALENCY TABLE

NAICS Industry Employment Category236115 New Single-Family Housing Construction Construction

236116 New Multifamily Housing Construction Construction

236117 New Housing Operative Builders Construction

236118 Residential Remodelers Construction

236210 Industrial Building Construction Construction

236220 Commercial Building Construction Construction

237110 Water and Sewer System Construction Construction

237120 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction Construction

237130 Power/Communication System Construction Construction

237210 Land Subdivision Construction

237310 Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction Construction

237990 Other Heavy Construction Construction

238111 Residential Poured Foundation Contractor Construction

238112 Nonresidential Poured Foundation Contrs Construction

238121 Residential Structural Steel Contractors Construction

238122 Nonresidential Structural Steel Contrs Construction

238131 Residential Framing Contractors Construction

238132 Nonresidential Framing Contractors Construction

238141 Residential Masonry Contractors Construction

238142 Nonresidential Masonry Contractors Construction

238151 Residential Glass/Glazing Contractors Construction

238152 Nonresidential Glass/Glazing Contractors Construction

238161 Residential Roofing Contractors Construction

238162 Nonresidential Roofing Contractors Construction

238171 Residential Siding Contractors Construction

238172 Nonresidential Siding Contractors Construction

238191 Other Residential Exterior Contractors Construction

238192 Other Nonresidential Exterior Contrs Construction

238211 Residential Electrical Contractors Construction

238212 Nonresidential Electrical Contractors Construction

238221 Residential Plumbing/HVAC Contractors Construction

238222 Nonresidential Plumbing/HVAC Contractors Construction

238291 Other Residential Equipment Contractors Construction

238292 Other Nonresidential Equipment Contrs Construction

238311 Residential Drywall Contractors Construction

238312 Nonresidential Drywall Contractors Construction

238321 Residential Painting Contractors Construction

238322 Nonresidential Painting Contractors Construction

238331 Residential Flooring Contractors Construction

238332 Nonresidential Flooring Contractors Construction

238341 Residential Tile/Terrazzo Contractors Construction

238342 Nonresidential Tile/Terrazzo Contractors Construction

238351 Residential Finish Carpentry Contractors Construction

238352 Nonresidential Finish Carpentry Contrs Construction

238391 Other Residential Finishing Contractors Construction

238392 Other Nonresidential Finishing Contrs Construction

238911 Residential Site Preparation Contractors Construction

238912 Nonresidential Site Preparation Contrs Construction

238991 All Other Residential Trade Constractors Construction

238992 All Other Nonresidential Trade Contrs Construction

722310 Food Service Contractors Food Services and Drinking Places

722320 Caterers Food Services and Drinking Places

722330 Mobile Food Services Food Services and Drinking Places

722410 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) Food Services and Drinking Places

722511 Full-Service Restaurants Food Services and Drinking Places

722513 Limited-Service Restaurants Food Services and Drinking Places

722514 Cafeterias, Grill Buffets, and Buffets Food Services and Drinking Places

722515 Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars Food Services and Drinking Places

111219 Other Vegetable and Melon Farming Good Producing

221112 Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation Good Producing

221114 Solar Electric Power Generation Good Producing

221122 Electric Power Distribution Good Producing

221210 Natural Gas Distribution Good Producing

221310 Water Supply and Irrigation Systems Good Producing

221320 Sewage Treatment Facilities Good Producing

221330 Steam and Air-Conditioning Supply Good Producing

311111 Dog and Cat Food Manufacturing Good Producing

311340 Nonchocolate Confectionery Manufacturing Good Producing

311352 Confectionery Manufacturing from Purchased Ch Good Producing

311412 Frozen Specialty Food Manufacturing Good Producing

311421 Fruit and Vegetable Canning Good Producing

311511 Fluid Milk Manufacturing Good Producing

311520 Ice Cream & Frozen Dessert Manufacturing Good Producing

311612 Meat Processed from Carcasses Good Producing

311613 Rendering and Meat Byproduct Processing Good Producing

311615 Poultry Processing Good Producing

311710 Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging Good Producing

311811 Retail Bakeries Good Producing

311812 Commercial Bakeries Good Producing

311813 Frozen Pastry Manufacturing Good Producing

311821 Cookie and Cracker Manufacturing Good Producing

311824 Dry Pasta, Dough, and Flour Mixes Manufacturing Good Producing

311830 Tortilla Manufacturing Good Producing

311919 Other Snack Food Manufacturing Good Producing

311920 Coffee and Tea Manufacturing Good Producing

311930 Flavoring Syrup and Concentrate Mfg Good Producing

311941 Mayonnaise, Dressing, and Sauce Mfg Good Producing

311942 Spice and Extract Manufacturing Good Producing

311991 Perishable Prepared Food Manufacturing Good Producing

311999 All Other Miscellaneous Food Mfg Good Producing

312112 Bottled Water Manufacturing Good Producing

312113 Ice Manufacturing Good Producing

312120 Breweries Good Producing

312140 Distilleries Good Producing

312230 Tobacco Manufacturing Good Producing

313230 Nonwoven Fabric Mills Good Producing

313320 Fabric Coating Mills Good Producing

314120 Curtain and Linen Mills Good Producing

314910 Textile Bag and Canvas Mills Good Producing

314994 Rope, Cordage, Twine, Tire Cord, and Tire Fab Good Producing

314999 All Other Textile Product Mills Good Producing

315190 Other Apparel Knitting Mills Good Producing

315210 Cut and Sew Apparel Contractors Good Producing

315220 Men's and Boy's cut and Sew Apparel Mfg Good Producing

315240 Women's, Girls and Infants Cut and Sew Apparel Mfg Good Producing

315280 Other Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing Good Producing

315990 Apparel Accessories and Other Apparel Mfg Good Producing

316998 All Other Leather Good and Allied Product Mfg Good Producing

321214 Truss Manufacturing Good Producing

321219 Reconstituted Wood Product Manufacturing Good Producing

321911 Wood Window and Door Manufacturing Good Producing

321912 Cut Stock, Resawing Lumber, and Planing Good Producing

321918 Other Millwork (including Flooring) Good Producing

321920 Wood Container and Pallet Manufacturing Good Producing

321992 Prefabricated Wood Building Mfg Good Producing

321999 Miscellaneous Wood Product Manufacturing Good Producing

322219 Other Paperboard Container Manufacturing Good Producing

322220 Paper Bag and Coated and Treated Paper Manufa Good Producing

322291 Sanitary Paper Product Manufacturing Good Producing

322299 All Other Converted Paper Products Good Producing

323111 Commercial Gravure Printing Good Producing

323113 Commercial Screen Printing Good Producing

323117 Books Printing Good Producing

323120 Support Activities for Printing Good Producing

324110 Petroleum Refineries Good Producing

324121 Asphalt Paving Mixture and Block Good Producing

324199 All Other Petroleum and Coal Products Manufac Good Producing

325120 Industrial Gas Manufacturing Good Producing

325180 Other Basic Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing Good Producing

325199 All Other Basic Organic Chemicals Good Producing

325312 Phosphatic Fertilizer Manufacturing Good Producing

325314 Fertilizer (Mixing Only) Manufacturing Good Producing

325411 Medicinal and Botanical Manufacturing Good Producing

325412 Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing Good Producing

325413 In-Vitro Diagnostic Substance Mfg Good Producing

325510 Paint and Coating Manufacturing Good Producing

325520 Adhesive Manufacturing Good Producing

325611 Soap and Other Detergent Manufacturing Good Producing

325612 Polish and Sanitation Good Manufacturing Good Producing

325620 Toilet Preparation Manufacturing Good Producing

325991 Custom Compounding of Purchased Resins Good Producing

325992 Photographic Film and Chemicals Good Producing

325998 Other Miscellaneous Chemicals Mfg Good Producing

326111 Unsupported Plastics Bag Manufacturing Good Producing

326112 Plastics Packaging Film and Sheet Good Producing

326113 Nonpackaging Plastics Film and Sheet Good Producing

326121 Unlaminated Plastics Profile Shape Mfg Good Producing

326122 Plastics Pipe and Pipe Fitting Mfg Good Producing

326140 Polystyrene Foam Product Manufacturing Good Producing

326150 Urethane and Other Foam Product Mfg Good Producing

326160 Plastics Bottle Manufacturing Good Producing

326191 Plastics Plumbing Fixture Manufacturing Good Producing

326199 All Other Plastics Product Manufacturing Good Producing

326211 Tire Manufacturing (except Retreading) Good Producing

326212 Tire Retreading Good Producing

326220 Rubber and Plastics Hoses and Belting Good Producing

326299 All Other Rubber Product Manufacturing Good Producing

327212 Other Pressed & Blown Glass/Glassware Good Producing

327215 Purchased Glass Product Manufacturing Good Producing

327320 Ready-Mix Concrete Manufacturing Good Producing

327331 Concrete Block and Brick Manufacturing Good Producing

327390 Other Concrete Product Manufacturing Good Producing

327410 Lime Manufacturing Good Producing

327420 Gypsum Product Manufacturing Good Producing

327991 Cut Stone & Stone Product Manufacturing Good Producing

327992 Ground or Treated Mineral and Earths Good Producing

327999 Misc Nonmetallic Mineral Products Mfg Good Producing

331210 Purchased Iron and Steel Pipe and Tube Good Producing

331410 Nonferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Smelting a Good Producing

331492 Secondary Processing, Other Nonferrous Good Producing

332216 Saw Blade and Handtool Manufacturing Good Producing

332311 Prefabricated Metal Building & Component Good Producing

332312 Fabricated Structural Metal Mfg Good Producing

332313 Plate Work Manufacturing Good Producing

332321 Metal Window and Door Manufacturing Good Producing

332322 Sheet Metal Work Manufacturing Good Producing

332323 Ornamental and Architectural Metal Work Good Producing

332420 Metal Tank (Heavy Gauge) Manufacturing Good Producing

332510 Hardware Manufacturing Good Producing

332618 Other Fabricated Wire Product Mafg Good Producing

332710 Machine Shops Good Producing

332721 Precision Turned Product Manufacturing Good Producing

332722 Bolts, Nuts, Screws, Rivets, and Washers Good Producing

332812 Metal Coating and Nonprecious Engraving Good Producing

332813 Electroplating/Anodizing/Coloring Metal Good Producing

332912 Fluid Power Valves and Hose Fittings Good Producing

332992 Small Arms Ammunition Manufacturing Good Producing

332994 Small Arms Manufacturing Good Producing

332996 Fabricated Pipe and Pipe Fittings Good Producing

332999 Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products Good Producing

333241 Food Product Machinery Manufacturing Good Producing

333244 Printing Machinery and Equipment Manufacturin Good Producing

333249 Other Industrial Machinery Manufacturing Good Producing

333314 Optical Instrument & Lens Manufacturing Good Producing

333318 Other Commercial and Service Industry Machine Good Producing

333413 Industrial and Commercial Fan and Blower and Good Producing

333414 Heating Equipment, ex. Warm Air Furnaces Good Producing

333415 AC, Refrigeration, & Forced Air Heating Good Producing

333511 Industrial Mold Manufacturing Good Producing

333514 Special Tools, Dies, Jigs, and Fixtures Good Producing

333515 Machine Tool Cutters and Accessories Good Producing

333517 Machine Tool Manufacturing Good Producing

333922 Conveyor and Conveying Equipment Good Producing

333923 Overhead Cranes, Hoists and Monorails Good Producing

333924 Industrial Truck, Trailers, and Stackers Good Producing

333993 Packaging Machinery Manufacturing Good Producing

333999 Miscellaneous General Purpose Machinery Good Producing

334111 Electronic Computer Manufacturing Good Producing

334118 Computer Terminal and Other Computer Peripher Good Producing

334220 Broadcast & Wireless Communication Equip Good Producing

334290 Other Communications Equipment Mfg Good Producing

334310 Audio and Visual Equipment Manufacturing Good Producing

334413 Semiconductor and Related Devices Good Producing

334417 Electronic Connector Manufacturing Good Producing

334418 Printed Circuit Assemblies Good Producing

334419 Other Electronic Component Manufacturing Good Producing

334512 Automatic Environmental Control Mfg Good Producing

334515 Electricity & Signal Testing Instruments Good Producing

334516 Analytical Laboratory Instruments Good Producing

334519 Other Measuring and Controlling Devices Good Producing

334614 Software and Other Prerecorded Compact Disc, Good Producing

335121 Residential Electric Lighting Fixtures Good Producing

335122 Nonresidential Electric Lighting Fixture Good Producing

335210 Small Electrical Appliance Manufacturing Good Producing

335311 Electric Power & Specialty Transformers Good Producing

335313 Switchgear and Switchboard Apparatus Good Producing

335314 Relay & Industrial Control Manufacturing Good Producing

335912 Primary Battery Manufacturing Good Producing

335929 Other Communication and Energy Wire Good Producing

335999 Miscellaneous Electrical Equipment Good Producing

336111 Automobile Manufacturing Good Producing

336211 Motor Vehicle Body Manufacturing Good Producing

336214 Travel Trailer and Camper Manufacturing Good Producing

336310 Motor Vehicle Gasoline Engine and Engine Part Good Producing

336320 Motor Vehicle Electrical and Electronic Equip Good Producing

336330 Motor Vehicle Steering/Suspension Parts Good Producing

336340 Motor Vehicle Brake System Manufacturing Good Producing

336360 Motor Vehicle Seating and Interior Trim Good Producing

336390 Other Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing Good Producing

336412 Aircraft Engine and Engine Parts Good Producing

336413 Other Aircraft Parts and Equipment Good Producing

336414 Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles Good Producing

336991 Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Mfg Good Producing

336999 All Other Transportation Equipment Good Producing

337110 Wood Kitchen Cabinets and Countertops Good Producing

337121 Upholstered Household Furniture Mfg Good Producing

337122 Nonupholstered Wood Household Furniture Good Producing

337127 Institutional Furniture Manufacturing Good Producing

337211 Wood Office Furniture Manufacturing Good Producing

337212 Custom Architectural Woodwork & Millwork Good Producing

337214 Office Furniture, ex. Wood, Mfg Good Producing

337215 Showcases, Partition, Shelving & Lockers Good Producing

337910 Mattress Manufacturing Good Producing

337920 Blind and Shade Manufacturing Good Producing

339112 Surgical and Medical Instrument Mfg Good Producing

339113 Surgical Appliance and Supplies Mfg Good Producing

339114 Dental Equipment and Supplies Mfg Good Producing

339115 Ophthalmic Goods Manufacturing Good Producing

339116 Dental Laboratories Good Producing

339910 Jewelry and Silverware Manufacturing Good Producing

339920 Sporting & Athletic Goods Manufacturing Good Producing

339930 Doll, Toy, and Game Manufacturing Good Producing

339940 Office Supplies (except Paper) Manufacturing Good Producing

339950 Sign Manufacturing Good Producing

339991 Gaskets, Packings, and Sealing Devices Good Producing

339992 Musical Instrument Manufacturing Good Producing

339999 All Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing Good Producing

721120 Casino Hotels Hotel with Gaming

721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels Hotel without Gaming

721310 Rooming and Boarding Houses Hotel without Gaming

621111 Offices of Physicians, ex. Mental Health Medical

621112 Offices of Mental Health Physicians Medical

621210 Offices of Dentists Medical

621310 Offices of Chiropractors Medical

621320 Offices of Optometrists Medical

621330 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners Medical

621340 Offices of Specialty Therapists Medical

621391 Offices of Podiatrists Medical

621399 Offices of Misc Health Practitioners Medical

621410 Family Planning Centers Medical

621420 Outpatient Mental Health Centers Medical

621491 HMO Medical Centers Medical

621492 Kidney Dialysis Centers Medical

621493 Freestanding Emergency Medical Centers Medical

621498 All Other Outpatient Care Centers Medical

621511 Medical Laboratories Medical

621512 Diagnostic Imaging Centers Medical

621910 Ambulance Services Medical

621991 Blood and Organ Banks Medical

621999 Miscellaneous Ambulatory Health Care Svc Medical

622110 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Medical

622210 Psychiatric & Substance Abuse Hospitals Medical

622310 Other Hospitals Medical

519120 Libraries and Archives Office_Government

921110 Executive Offices Office_Government

921130 Public Finance Activities Office_Government

921140 Executive & Legislative Offices Combined Office_Government

921150 Tribal Governments Office_Government

921190 Other General Government Support Office_Government

922110 Courts Office_Government

922120 Police Protection Office_Government

922130 Legal Counsel and Prosecution Office_Government

922140 Correctional Institutions Office_Government

922150 Parole Offices and Probation Offices Office_Government

922160 Fire Protection Office_Government

922190 Other Justice and Safety Activities Office_Government

923110 Administration of Education Programs Office_Government

923120 Administration of Public Health Programs Office_Government

923130 Other Human Resource Program Admin Office_Government

923140 Administration of Veterans' Affairs Office_Government

924110 Air, Water and Waste Program Admin Office_Government

924120 Administration of Conservation Programs Office_Government

925110 Administration of Housing Programs Office_Government

925120 Urban and Rural Development Admin Office_Government

926110 Administration of General Economic Prog Office_Government

926120 Transportation Program Administration Office_Government

926130 Utility Regulation and Administration Office_Government

926140 Agricultural Commodity/Market Regulation Office_Government

926150 Licensing/Regulating Commercial Sectors Office_Government

928110 National Security Office_Government

928120 International Affairs Office_Government

511110 Newspaper Publishers Office_Private

511120 Periodical Publishers Office_Private

511130 Book Publishers Office_Private

511140 Directory and Mailing List Publishers Office_Private

511191 Greeting Card Publishers Office_Private

511199 All Other Publishers Office_Private

511210 Software Publishers Office_Private

512110 Motion Picture and Video Production Office_Private

512120 Motion Picture and Video Distribution Office_Private

512191 Teleproduction & Postproduction Services Office_Private

512199 Other Motion Picture & Video Industries Office_Private

512230 Music Publishers Office_Private

512240 Sound Recording Studios Office_Private

512290 Other Sound Recording Industries Office_Private

515111 Radio Networks Office_Private

515112 Radio Stations Office_Private

515120 Television Broadcasting Office_Private

515210 Cable and Other Subscription Programming Office_Private

517110 Wired Telecommunications Carriers Office_Private

517210 Wireless Telecommunications Carriers Office_Private

517410 Satellite Telecommunications Office_Private

517911 Telecommunications Resellers Office_Private

517919 All Other Telecommunications Office_Private

518210 Data Processing and Related Services Office_Private

519110 News Syndicates Office_Private

519130 Internet Publishing & Broadcasting and Web Search PortalOffice_Private

519190 All Other Information Services Office_Private

522110 Commercial Banking Office_Private

522120 Savings Institutions Office_Private

522130 Credit Unions Office_Private

522190 Other Depository Credit Intermediation Office_Private

522210 Credit Card Issuing Office_Private

522220 Sales Financing Office_Private

522291 Consumer Lending Office_Private

522292 Real Estate Credit Office_Private

522294 Secondary Market Financing Office_Private

522298 All Other Nondeposit Credit Intermediatn Office_Private

522310 Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers Office_Private

522320 Financial Transaction Process/Clearing Office_Private

522390 Other Credit Intermediation Activities Office_Private

523110 Investment Banking & Securities Dealing Office_Private

523120 Securities Brokerage Office_Private

523130 Commodity Contracts Dealing Office_Private

523140 Commodity Contracts Brokerage Office_Private

523210 Securities and Commodities Exchanges Office_Private

523910 Miscellaneous Intermediation Office_Private

523920 Portfolio Management Office_Private

523930 Investment Advice Office_Private

523991 Trust, Fiduciary, and Custody Activities Office_Private

523999 Misc Financial Investment Activities Office_Private

524113 Direct Life Insurance Carriers Office_Private

524114 Direct Health/Medical Insurance Carriers Office_Private

524126 Direct Property and Casualty Insurers Office_Private

524127 Direct Title Insurance Carriers Office_Private

524128 Other Direct Insurance Carriers Office_Private

524130 Reinsurance Carriers Office_Private

524210 Insurance Agencies and Brokerages Office_Private

524291 Claims Adjusting Office_Private

524292 Third Party Admin of Insurance Funds Office_Private

524298 All Other Insurance Related Activities Office_Private

525920 Trusts, Estates, and Agency Accounts Office_Private

531110 Lessors of Residential Buildings Office_Private

531120 Lessors of Nonresidential Buildings Office_Private

531130 Lessors of Miniwarehouses and Self-Storage Unit Office_Private

531190 Lessors of Other Real Estate Property Office_Private

531210 Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers Office_Private

531311 Residential Property Managers Office_Private

531312 Nonresidential Property Managers Office_Private

531320 Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Office_Private

531390 Other Activities Related to Real Estate Office_Private

533110 Lessors, Nonfinancial Intangible Assets Office_Private

541110 Offices of Lawyers Office_Private

541191 Title Abstract and Settlement Offices Office_Private

541199 All Other Legal Services Office_Private

541211 Offices of Certified Public Accountants Office_Private

541213 Tax Preparation Services Office_Private

541214 Payroll Services Office_Private

541219 Other Accounting Services Office_Private

541310 Architechtural Services Office_Private

541320 Landscape Architechtural Services Office_Private

541330 Engineering Services Office_Private

541340 Drafting Services Office_Private

541350 Building Inspection Services Office_Private

541360 Geophysical Surveying & Mapping Services Office_Private

541370 Other Surveying and Mapping Services Office_Private

541380 Testing Laboratories Office_Private

541410 Interior Design Services Office_Private

541420 Industrial Design Services Office_Private

541430 Graphic Design Services Office_Private

541490 Other Specialized Design Services Office_Private

541511 Custom Computer Programming Services Office_Private

541512 Computer Systems Design Services Office_Private

541513 Computer Facilities Management Services Office_Private

541519 Other Computer Related Services Office_Private

541611 Administrative Management Consulting Svc Office_Private

541612 Human Resource Consulting Services Office_Private

541613 Marketing Consulting Services Office_Private

541614 Process & Logistics Consulting Services Office_Private

541618 Other Management Consulting Services Office_Private

541620 Environmental Consulting Services Office_Private

541690 Other Technical Consulting Services Office_Private

541711 Research and Development in Biotechnology Office_Private

541712 Research and Development in the Physical, Eng Office_Private

541720 Social Science/Humanities Research Office_Private

541810 Advertising Agencies Office_Private

541820 Public Relations Agencies Office_Private

541830 Media Buying Agencies Office_Private

541840 Media Representatives Office_Private

541850 Display Advertising Office_Private541860 Direct Mail Advertising Office_Private

541870 Advertising Material Distribution Svc Office_Private

541890 Other Services Related to Advertising Office_Private

541910 Marketing Research & Public Opinion Poll Office_Private

541921 Photography Studios, Portrait Office_Private

541922 Commercial Photography Office_Private

541930 Translation and Interpretation Services Office_Private

541940 Veterinary Services Office_Private

541990 All Other Professional & Technical Svc Office_Private

551112 Offices of Other Holding Companies Office_Private

551114 Managing Offices Office_Private

561110 Office Administrative Services Office_Private

561210 Facilities Support Services Office_Private

561311 Employment Placement Agencies Office_Private

561312 Executive Placement Search Services (i.e., ex Office_Private

561320 Temporary Help Services Office_Private

561330 Professional Employer Organizations Office_Private

561410 Document Preparation Services Office_Private

561421 Telephone Answering Services Office_Private

561422 Telemarketing Bureaus and other contact centers Office_Private

561431 Private Mail Centers Office_Private

561439 Other Business Service Centers Office_Private

561440 Collection Agencies Office_Private

561450 Credit Bureaus Office_Private

561491 Repossession Services Office_Private

561492 Court Reporting and Stenotype Services Office_Private

561499 All Other Business Support Services Office_Private

561510 Travel Agencies Office_Private

561520 Tour Operators Office_Private

561591 Convention and Visitors Bureaus Office_Private

561599 All Other Travel Arrangement Services Office_Private

561611 Investigation Services Office_Private

561920 Convention and Trade Show Organizers Office_Private

813311 Human Rights Organizations Office_Private

813312 Environment & Conservation Organizations Office_Private

813319 Other Social Advocacy Organizations Office_Private

813410 Civic and Social Organizations Office_Private

813910 Business Associations Office_Private

813920 Professional Organizations Office_Private

813930 Labor Unions & Other Labor Organizations Office_Private

813940 Political Organizations Office_Private

813990 Other Similar Organizations Office_Private

111339 Other Noncitrus Fruit Farming Other

111419 Other Food Crops Grown Under Cover Other

111421 Nursery and Tree Production Other

111422 Floriculture Production Other

111940 Hay Farming Other

112111 Beef Cattle Ranching and Farming Other

112210 Hog and Pig Farming Other

112920 Horse and Other Equine Production Other

112990 All Other Animal Production Other

115112 Soil Preparation, Planting, Cultivating Other

115210 Support Activities for Animal Production Other

211111 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Extraction Other

212221 Gold Ore Mining Other

212222 Silver Ore Mining Other

212312 Crushed Limestone Mining and Quarrying Other

212313 Crushed Granite Mining and Quarrying Other

212319 Other Crushed Stone Mining and Quarrying Other

212321 Construction Sand and Gravel Mining Other

212322 Industrial Sand Mining Other

212393 Other Chemical/Fertilizer Mineral Mining Other

212399 All Other Nonmetallic Mineral Mining Other

213111 Drilling Oil and Gas Wells Other

213112 Support Activities, Oil/Gas Operations Other

213114 Support Activities for Metal Mining Other

213115 Support Activities, Nonmetallic Minerals Other

425120 Wholesale Trade Agents and Brokers Other

481111 Scheduled Passenger Air Transportation Other

481112 Scheduled Freight Air Transportation Other

481211 Nonscheduled Air Passenger Chartering Other

481212 Nonscheduled Air Freight Chartering Other

481219 Other Nonscheduled Air Transportation Other

482111 Line-Haul Railroads Other

483212 Inland Water Passenger Transportation Other

484110 General Freight Trucking, Local Other

484121 General Freight Trucking, Long-Dist TL Other

484122 General Freight Trucking, Long-Dist LTL Other

484210 Used Household and Office Goods Moving Other

484220 Other Specialized Trucking, Local Other

484230 Other Specialized Trucking, Long-Dist Other

485113 Bus/Other Motor Vehicle Transit Systems Other

485119 Other Urban Transit Systems Other

485210 Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation Other

485310 Taxi Service Other

485320 Limosine Service Other

485410 School and Employee Bus Transportation Other

485510 Charter Bus Industry Other

485991 Special Needs Transportation Other

485999 All Other Ground Passenger Transport Other

486210 Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas Other

487110 Scenic/Sightseeing Transportation, Land Other

487210 Scenic/Sightseeing Transportation, Water Other

487990 Scenic/Sightseeing Transportation, Other Other

488111 Air Traffic Control Other

488119 Other Airport Operations Other

488190 Other Support Activities, Air Transport Other

488210 Support Activities for Rail Transport Other

488410 Motor Vehicle Towing Other

488490 Other Support Activities, Road Transport Other

488510 Freight Transportation Arrangement Other

488991 Packing and Crating Other

488999 All Other Support Activities, Transport Other

491110 Postal Service Other

492110 Couriers Other

492210 Local Messengers and Local Delivery Other

512131 Motion Picture Theaters, ex. Drive-Ins Other

512132 Drive-In Motion Picture Theaters Other

532111 Passenger Car Rental Other

532112 Passenger Car Leasing Other

532120 Truck, Trailer and RV Rental and Leasing Other

532210 Consumer Electronics & Appliances Rental Other

532220 Formal Wear and Costume Rental Other

532230 Video Tape and Disc Rental Other

532291 Home Health Equipment Rental Other

532292 Recreational Goods Rental Other

532299 All Other Consumer Goods Rental Other

532310 General Rental Centers Other

532411 Transportation Equipment Rental/Leasing Other

532412 Other Heavy Machinery Rental and Leasing Other

532420 Office Equipment Rental and Leasing Other

532490 Other Machinery Rental and Leasing Other

561612 Security Guards and Patrol Services Other

561613 Armored Car Services Other

561621 Security Systems Services, ex. Locksmith Other

561622 Locksmiths Other

561710 Exterminating and Pest Control Services Other

561720 Janatorial Services Other

561730 Landscaping Services Other

561740 Carpet and Upholstery Cleaning Services Other

561790 Other Services to Buildings & Dwellings Other

561910 Packaging and Labeling Services Other

561990 All Other Support Services Other

562111 Solid Waste Collection Other

562112 Hazardous Waste Collection Other

562119 Other Waste Collection Other

562211 Hazardous Waste Treatment and Disposal Other

562212 Solid Waste Landfill Other

562219 Other Nonhazardous Waste Disposal Other

562910 Remediation Services Other

562920 Materials Recovery Facilities Other

562991 Septic Tank and Related Services Other

562998 Miscellaneous Waste Management Services Other

621610 Home Health Care Services Other

623110 Nursing Care Facilities Other

623210 Residential Mental Retardation Facility Other

623220 Residental Mental & Substance Abuse Care Other

623311 Continuing Care Retirement Communities Other

623312 Homes for the Elderly Other

623990 Other Residential Care Facilities Other

624110 Child and Youth Services Other

624120 Services for the Elderly and Disabled Other

624190 Other Individual and Family Services Other

624210 Community Food Services Other

624221 Temporary Shelters Other

624229 Other Community Housing Services Other

624230 Emergency and Other Relief Services Other

624310 Vocational Rehabilitation Services Other

624410 Child Day Care Services Other

711110 Theater Companies and Dinner Theaters Other

711120 Dance Companies Other

711130 Musical Groups and Artists Other

711190 Other Performing Arts Companies Other

711211 Sports Teams and Clubs Other

711212 Racetracks Other

711219 Other Spectator Sports Other

711310 Promoters with Facilities Other

711320 Promoters without Facilities Other

711410 Agents and Managers for Public Figures Other

711510 Independent Artists/Writers/Performers Other

712110 Museums Other

712120 Historical Sites Other

712130 Zoos and Botanical Gardens Other

712190 Nature Parks & Other Similar Institution Other

713110 Amusement and Theme Parks Other

713120 Amusement Arcades Other

713210 Casinos (except Casino Hotels) Other

713290 Other Gambling Industries Other

713910 Golf Courses and Country Clubs Other

713920 Skiing Facilities Other

713930 Marinas Other

713940 Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers Other

713950 Bowling Centers Other

713990 All Other Amusement and Recreation Ind Other

721199 All Other Traveler Accommodation Other

721211 RV Parks and Campgrounds Other

721214 Recreational and Vacation Camps Other

812210 Funeral Homes and Funeral Services Other

812220 Cemeteries and Crematories Other

812332 Industrial Launderers Other

812930 Parking Lots and Garages Other

812990 All Other Personal Services Other

813110 Religious Organizations Other

813211 Grantmaking Foundations Other

813212 Voluntary Health Organizations Other

813219 Other Grantmaking and Giving Services Other

814110 Private Households Other

999999 Unknown Industry Other

425110 Business to Business Electronic Markets Other

441110 New Car Dealers Retail

441120 Used Car Dealers Retail

441210 Recreational Vehicle Dealers Retail

441222 Boat Dealers Retail

441228 Motorcycle, ATV, and All Other Motor Vehicle Retail

441310 Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores Retail

441320 Tire Dealers Retail

442110 Furniture Stores Retail

442210 Floor Covering Stores Retail

442291 Window Treatment Stores Retail

442299 All Other Home Furnishings Stores Retail

443141 Household Appliance Stores Retail

443142 Electronics Stores Retail

444110 Home Centers Retail

444120 Paint and Wallpaper Stores Retail

444130 Hardware Stores Retail

444190 Other Building Material Dealers Retail

444210 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores Retail

444220 Nursery, Garden & Farm Supply Stores Retail

445110 Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores Retail

445120 Convenience Stores Retail

445210 Meat Markets Retail

445220 Fish and Seafood Markets Retail

445230 Fruit and Vegetable Markets Retail

445291 Baked Goods Stores Retail

445292 Confectionery and Nut Stores Retail

445299 All Other Specialty Food Stores Retail

445310 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Retail

446110 Pharmacies and Drug Stores Retail

446120 Cosmetic and Beauty Supply Stores Retail

446130 Optical Goods Stores Retail

446191 Food (Health) Supplement Stores Retail

446199 All Other Health & Personal Care Stores Retail

447110 Gasoline Stations w/ Convenience Stores Retail

447190 Other Gasoline Stations Retail

448110 Men's Clothing Stores Retail

448120 Women's Clothing Stores Retail

448130 Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores Retail

448140 Family Clothing Stores Retail

448150 Clothing Accessories Stores Retail

448190 Other Clothing Stores Retail

448210 Shoe Stores Retail

448310 Jewelry Stores Retail

448320 Luggage and Leather Goods Stores Retail

451110 Sporting Goods Stores Retail

451120 Hobby, Toy, and Game Stores Retail

451130 Sewing, Needlework & Piece Goods Stores Retail

451140 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores Retail

451211 Book Stores Retail

452111 Department Stores, ex. Discount Retail

452112 Discount Department Stores Retail

452990 All Other General Merchandise Stores Retail

453110 Florists Retail

453210 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores Retail

453220 Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores Retail

453310 Used Merchandise Stores Retail

453910 Pet and Pet Supplies Stores Retail

453920 Art Dealers Retail

453930 Manufactured (Mobile) Home Dealers Retail

453991 Tobacco Stores Retail

453998 Store Retailers Not Specified Elsewhere Retail

454111 Electronic Shopping Retail

454112 Electronic Auctions Retail

454113 Mail-Order Houses Retail

454210 Vending Machine Operators Retail

454310 Fuel Dealers Retail

454390 Other Direct Selling Establishments Retail

811111 General Automotive Repair Retail

811112 Automotive Exhaust System Repair Retail

811113 Automotive Transmission Repair Retail

811118 Other Automotive Mechanical Repair Retail

811121 Automotive Body and Interior Repair Retail

811122 Automotive Glass Replacement Shops Retail

811191 Automotive Oil Change/Lubrication Shops Retail

811192 Car Washes Retail

811198 All Other Automotive Repair/Maintenance Retail

811211 Consumer Electronics Repair/Maintenance Retail

811212 Computer and Office Machine Repair Retail

811213 Communication Equipment Repair Retail

811219 Other Electronic Equipment Repair Retail

811310 Commercial Machinery Repair/Maintenance Retail

811411 Home and Garden Equipment Repair Retail

811412 Appliance Repair and Maintenance Retail

811420 Reupholstery and Furniture Repair Retail

811430 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair Retail

811490 Other Household Goods Repair/Maintenance Retail

812111 Barber Shops Retail

812112 Beauty Salons Retail

812113 Nail Salons Retail

812191 Diet and Weight Reducing Centers Retail

812199 Other Personal Care Services Retail

812310 Coin-Operated Laundries and Drycleaners Retail

812320 Drycleaning and Laundry Services Retail

812331 Linen Supply Retail

812910 Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services Retail

812921 Photofinishing Laboratories, ex. 1-Hour Retail

812922 One-Hour Photofinishing Retail

611110 Elementary and Secondary Schools School

611210 Junior Colleges School

611310 Colleges and Universities School

611420 Computer Training School

611430 Management Training School

611511 Cosmetology and Barber Schools School

611512 Flight Training School

611513 Apprenticeship Training School

611519 Other Technical and Trade Schools School

611610 Fine Arts Schools School

611620 Sports and Recreation Instruction School

611630 Language Schools School

611691 Exam Preparation and Tutoring School

611692 Automobile Driving Schools School

611699 Miscellaneous Schools and Instruction School

611710 Educational Support Services School

452910 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters

423110 Motor Vehicle Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423120 New Motor Vehicle Part Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423130 Tire and Tube Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423140 Used Motor Vehicle Part Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423210 Furniture Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423220 Home Furnishing Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423310 Lumber and Wood Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423320 Masonry Material Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423330 Roofing and Siding Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423390 Other Construction Supply Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423410 Photographic Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423420 Office Equipment Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423430 Computer and Supply Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423440 Other Commercial Equip Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423450 Medical Equipment Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423460 Ophthalmic Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423490 Other Professional Goods Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423510 Metal Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423610 Wiring & Equipment Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423620 Electric Appliance Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423690 Other Electronic Parts Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423710 Hardware Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423720 Plumbing Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423730 HVAC Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423740 Refrigeration Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423810 Construction Equip Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423820 Farm & Garden Equip Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423830 Industrial Machinery Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423840 Industrial Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423850 Service Industry Goods Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423860 Other Transport Goods Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

423910 Sporting Good Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423920 Toy and Hobby Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423930 Recyclable Material Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423940 Jewelry Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

423990 All Other Durable Goods Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

424110 Printing Paper Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424120 Office Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424130 Industrial Paper Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424210 Druggists' Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424310 Piece Goods Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424320 Mens/Boys Clothing Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424330 Women's Clothing Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424340 Footwear Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424410 General Line Grocery Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

424420 Packaged Frozen Food Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

424430 Dairy Product Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424440 Poultry Product Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424450 Confectionery Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424460 Fish and Seafood Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424470 Meat & Meat Product Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424480 Fruit & Vegetable Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424490 Other Grocery Product Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

424590 Other Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Warehouse and Wholesale

424610 Plastics Material Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424690 Other Chemical Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424710 Petroleum Bulk Stations and Terminals Warehouse and Wholesale

424720 Other Petroleum Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424810 Beer and Ale Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424820 Wine and Spirit Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424910 Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424920 Book & Periodical Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424930 Nursery & Florist Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424940 Tobacco & Product Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424950 Paint & Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Warehouse and Wholesale

424990 Other Nondurable Goods Merchant Whsle Warehouse and Wholesale

493110 General Warehousing and Storage Warehouse and Wholesale

493120 Refrigerated Warehousing and Storage Warehouse and Wholesale

493190 Other Warehousing and Storage Warehouse and Wholesale

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