platts rockies oil & gas
TRANSCRIPT
Platts Rockies Oil & Gas North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Justin J. Kringstad April 14, 2014 – Denver, CO
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North Dakota Pipeline Miles
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2,470 miles of new pipe in 2012
Roughly Distance from Los Angeles to New York City
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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April 10, 2014 – 189 Drilling Rigs
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ND Drilling Stats
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Forecasted Drilling Rigs
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Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Forecasted New Wells
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Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Forecasting Challenges
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Ongoing Considerations
-Increased Density Drilling
-Drilling Efficiencies
-Improving Completion Techniques
-Productivity of the Lower Three Forks
-Eastern Montana Success
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Current Model
-Approx. 30,000 New Wells Out to Dec 2029
-Average EUR Roughly 400,000 BBLS
-Average First Month Production of 347 BOPD
Long Term Considerations -EOR Opportunities
-Pricing
-Competition
-Additional Williston Basin Plays
Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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210,000 BOPD
68,000 BOPD
160,000 BOPD
145,000 BOPD
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Oil Loading Rail Facilities
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February 2014
Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Confirmed Pipeline Projects
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Butte Loop • In-service Date: Q3 2014 • 110,000 BOPD • Service to Guernsey, WY
Hiland Double H • In-service Date: Q4 2014 • 50,000 BOPD (Expandable up to 100,000 BOPD) • Extended Open Season to April 16, 2014 • Service to Guernsey, WY
Plains Bakken North • In-service Date: 2014 • 40,000 BOPD (Expandable up to 70,000 BOPD) • Movement North to Canadian Interconnect
Pipeline Projects In Business Development or Regulatory
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North Dakota Pipeline Company Sandpiper • Open Season Successful: 155,000 BOPD Committed • 225,000 BOPD ND Capacity to Clearbrook, MN (24”) • 375,000 BOPD Clearbrook, MN to Superior, WI (30”) • In-service Date: Q1 2016
TransCanada Keystone XL • Up to 100,000 BOPD • Timeline Uncertain Energy Transfer Partners • Binding Open Season Launched March 12, 2014 • Project Details Unavailable
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Crude Oil Gathering
Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2012 Estimates – Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Crude Oil Gathering
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Oil Gathering
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41% 59% 20%
80%
31% 69%
48% 52%
54% 46%
42% 58%
9%
91%
41% 59%
22%
78%
100%
100%
36% 64%
100%
14%
86%
3%
97%
~250 Additional Truckloads Per Day
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Year-Over-Year Oil Gathering Changes*
*Best available estimate. Some data incomplete or missing
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Estimated YOY Oil Gathering Change
Sep 2012 to Sep 2013
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Estimated YOY Daily Truckload Change
Sep 2012 to Sep 2013 Assumes - 225 bbls/truck
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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US Refining Infrastructure
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53 $78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
Simple Terms Blue – Lack of pipelines Orange – Challenges on existing infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold Blue – % flared from zero sales wells Orange – % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold.
February 2014 Data – Non-Confidential Wells Statewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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*Hess Tioga Gas Plant shut-in for 140 MMCFD expansion starting in November
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Solving the Flaring Challenge
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New NDPA Natural Gas Report
Strengthening Landowner Relations
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NDPA Publications & Presentations
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Visit: www.northdakotapipelines.com
Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227
Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: [email protected]
Websites:
www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Contact Information
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