pld pitch book
TRANSCRIPT
Trade RecommendationBUY
Sebastian Tucker Meera NarayananChris KasinskiJennifer Perez
Ticker: PLDMarket Price: $40.37Target Price: $43.83
Background
1983- Douglas Abbey, Hamid Moghadam, T. Robert Burke founded AMB Property Corporation
1991- Incorporates under Security Capital Industrial Trust (SCI)
1994- SCI IPO on NYSE
1996- Starts expanding outside US with acquisitions in Mexico
1997- Closes IPO at $2.8B and opens offices in Amsterdam
1998- Changed to “ProLogis”
2001- Enters Japan
2003- Adds to S&P 500, enters China
2006- Become Fortune 1000 co.
2009- Sells China operations ($1.3B)
2014- Completes IPO for “FIBRA ProLogis” in Latin America
Culture and Social Responsibility
Vision: ProLogis: Enduring excellence in global real estate
Mission
Core Values: Integrity, Mentorship, Passion, Accountability, Courage, Teamwork (IMPACT)
Global 100 Most Sustainable Corp. IMPACT day
Leadership
Hamid R. Moghadam• Chairman of the Board & CEO• 30+ years of experience• Stanford MBA
Gary E. Anderson• Chief Executive Officer (Europe/Asia)• 10+ years of experience• UCLA MBA
Michael S. Curless• Chief Investment Officer• 20+ years of experience• Indiana University MBA
Edward S. Nekritz• CLO and General Council • 20+ years of experience• University of Chicago JD
Thomas S. Olinger • Chief Financial Officer• 5+ years of experience• Indiana University B.S. Finance
Eugene F. Reilly• Chief Executive Officer (Americas)• 15+ years of experience• Harvard B.A. Econ
Source: Prologis Website
Service Divisions
Investment: Real Estate Operations, Capital Deployment, Strategic Capital
Property Leasing: Single point of contact and support throughout process & during occupancy, regional organization
Property Management: In-house management and local market representatives for convenience and commitment to excellence
Product Divisions
Real Estate: Facilities, properties, portfolios
Brokers & Agents: Effective and efficient aid in service divisions
Research: Monitors, analyzes and reports on key trends & dynamics in RE, SCM, and customer relations
Revenue by Segment
Real Estate Operations Americas
2012: $1,176,920,000 2013: $1,288,925,000 2014: $1,403,564,000
Europe 2012: $435,244,000 2013: $174,397,000 2014: $74,413,000
Asia 2012: $221,575,000 2013: $107,692,000 2014: $62,939,000
Strategic Capital Americas
2012: $69,422,000 2013: $72,474,000 2014: $95,168,000
Europe 2012: $37,047,000 2013: $63,794,000 2014: $86,549,000
Asia 2012: $20,310,000 2013: $43,204,000 2014: $38,154,000
Source: Prologis 2014 10-k
SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS• Strong market position and strong
competitive advantage• Diverse geographic presence• Research offers advantage over
competitors
WEAKNESSES • Insufficient insurance coverage• Declining NOI from investment
management in the Americas • Fitch downgraded Prologis’ ratings
OPPORTUNITY • Japanese markets• Growth in the US economy • Growing REIT market• Develop new facilities
THREATS • Environmental risks • Intense competition • Economic slowdown in the U.S.
Mergers & Acquisitions
ProLogis acquisition of KTR Capital Partners
Purchase Price: $5.9 Billion
KTR Portfolio: 60 MSF of high-quality operating properties 89% Occupancy 3.6 MSF of development-in-progress and land with
build-out potential of 6.8 MSF
Mergers & Acquisitions
Financial Condition
Prologis Inc.
Duke Realty Corp.
First Ind. Realty
PS Business
ParkPeer
Average Condition
Profitability(%)
Net Profit Margin 36.1 20.9 14.3 46.2 28.5 Excellent
ROA 4.6 3.5 0.8 5.5 3.6 Excellent
ROE 6.9 9.3 4.4 17.0 8.1 Below Average
Leverage(%)
Debt-to-Equity 61.8 154.6 123.8 13.1 88.3 Excellent
Interest Coverage 0.9 0.8 1.22 9.2 1.04 Average
All data provided by Bloomberg
Financial Condition
Prologis Inc.
Duke Realty Corp.
First Ind. Realty
PS Business
ParkPeer
Average Condition
EquityPrice/FFO 18.2x 17.7x 17.8x 16.0x 17.2x Average
Div. Payout 1.07x 1.23x 2.39x 1.12x 1.18x Average
YoY Growth (%)
Revenue 0.6 7.8 8.2 4.7 5.34 Poor
Op. Income 5.1 2.9 10.9 -4.0 3.7 Good
Net Income 85.5 27.8 21.8 68.6 50.9 Excellent
FFOPS 1.8 0.0 18.4 -4.6 0.9 Excellent
Overall Above Average - Good
All data provided by Bloomberg
DuPont Analysis
ROE (%) Profit Margin (%) Asset Turnover Financial Leverage
PM*AT*FL NI/Revenue Revenue/Assets Assets/Equity
PLD DRE PLD DRE PLD DRE PLD DRE
2014 4.6 9.0 36.1 20.9 0.07 0.15 1.83 2.86
2013 2.7 8.4 19.6 17.7 0.07 0.14 1.99 3.38
2012 -0.3 -3.8 -2.0 -7.3 0.07 0.14 2.15 3.75
All data provided by Bloomberg
Formula: ROE = PM x AT x FL
WACC
Weight Cost W x C
Equity 72.4% 8.2% 5.9%
Debt Cost (A-T) 27.4% 1.3% 0.4%
Preferred Equity 0.2% 8.9% 0.0%
WACC 6.3%
All data provided by Bloomberg
Formula: WACC = (E/V)* Re + (D/V) * Rd * (1 – tax)
Valuation – Perpetuity
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
FFOPS 2.00 2.24 2.46 2.66 2.82 2.93
YoY Growth 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%
WACC Summary
Terminal Growth Rate
Perpetuity Value
Present Value Range
KE 8.20% 1.50% 44.39 32.39 Low
KD (A-T) 1.30% 2.00% 48.20 35.17 Medium
WACC 6.3% 2.50% 52.69 38.44 High
Perpetuity Value = FFOPSFY+4*(1+g)/(KE-g)Present Value = Perpetuity Value/(1+KE)4 Target: $35.17 < Market: $40.37
Valuation – Gordon Growth
2014 2015 2016E Growth Rate
FFOPS 2.00 2.24 2.46 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Required Rate of Return
7.2% 39.68 43.16 47.31 52.34 58.57
WACC Summary 7.7% 36.72 39.68 43.16 47.31 52.34
KE 8.2% 8.2% 34.17 36.72 39.68 43.16 47.31
KD (A-T) 1.3% 8.7% 31.95 34.17 36.72 39.68 43.16
WACC 6.3% 9.2% 30.00 31.95 34.17 36.72 39.68
Formula : GGM = FFOPSFY+1/(KE-g) Target: $39.68 < Market: $40.37
Valuation – Multiple Approach
FFO in 2015 2016 (E)
2.24 2.46
FFO 2015 2016
PLD 18.02x 18.05x
Formula: FFO Multiple x FFOPS
FFO Multiple Stock Value Range
17x $38.08 Low
18.02x $40.32 Medium
18.5x $41.44 Medium
19x $42.56 High
Year
Target: $41.44 > Market: $40.37
Valuation – DCF Model
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Growth 10% 8% 6% 4%
FFO/Share 2.24 2.46 2.66 2.82 2.93
45.89 TVDiscount
Rate 7%
Multiple 14.28x
2.09 2.15 2.17 2.15 32.72
Valuation 41.29
Multiple = 1/.067 = 14.93xTerminal g = 2.5%2015 FFO/Share = 2.24
Target: $41.29 > Market: $40.37
Valuation Matrix
Valuation Equally Weighted Weights Weights
GGM $39.68 25% 10% 5%
Perpetuity Model $35.17 25% 10% 15%
FFO Multiple $41.44 25% 40% 20%
DCF $41.29 25% 40% 60%
Totals: $39.40 $40.58 $40.32
Target Price: $40.58 x 1.08 (for franchise value) = $43.83
Trade Recommendation
We are tracking Prologis, Inc. (PLD) and it’s competitors. Based on our research we forecast PLD’s stock price to rise to $43.83 and continue to grow at a favorablegrowth rate for the foreseeable future.
We base this valuation on a steady rise in ROE, a profitable acquisition of KTR CapitalPartners, likeliness to lower leverage multiple in the coming year and growth potential. Therefore, we recommend the following 3 trades.
Prologis, Inc.
Actions:• Buy on Margin• Buy Calls• Write Puts
Trades: Total of 3 trades
Ticker: PLD