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This article was downloaded by: [Weng, Q.]On: 23 July 2009Access details: Access Details: [subscription number 913353807]Publisher Taylor & FrancisInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House,37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK
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Spatio-temporal modelling and analysis of urban heat islands by using LandsatTM and ETM+ imageryUmamaheshwaran Rajasekar a; Qihao Weng a
a Center for Urban and Environmental Change, Department of Geography, Geology and Anthropology, 177Science Building, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, IN 47809, USA
Online Publication Date: 01 January 2009
To cite this Article Rajasekar, Umamaheshwaran and Weng, Qihao(2009)'Spatio-temporal modelling and analysis of urban heatislands by using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery',International Journal of Remote Sensing,30:13,3531 — 3548
To link to this Article: DOI: 10.1080/01431160802562289
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01431160802562289
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Spatio-temporal modelling and analysis of urban heat islands by usingLandsat TM and ETM + imagery
UMAMAHESHWARAN RAJASEKAR and QIHAO WENG*
Center for Urban and Environmental Change, Department of Geography, Geology and
Anthropology, 177 Science Building, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, IN 47809,
USA
(Received 9 January 2008; final version received 18 June 2008 )
In this paper we propose a method for characterizing UHIs by using a non-
parametric model. Landsat 5 and 7 images obtained over the city of Indianapolis
were used for analysis of UHI over space and time. The images were subjected to
kernel convolution implementing Gaussian bi-variate function for non-para-
metric characterization of the UHI. The convoluted images were then analyzed,
for pattern over space and over time. It was found that the spread of the UHI in
Indianapolis increased from 13.90 km to 21.63 km in the west-east direction and
from 10.98 km to 15.90 km in the north-south direction from 1985 to 2000. The
changes in the UHI from 1995 to 2000 were evident in all cardinal directions. The
model aided in successfully characterizing UHI in terms of its location, spread,
and the rate of increase, facilitating a clearer image of UHI through space and
time.
1. Introduction
Anthropogenic change, associated with land cover, appears to be tightly coupled
with urban heat. These rapid changes in land use and land cover during recent years
have been facilitated, partially by natural, but predominantly by human causes. The
extent of land cover and land use change is widely evident within major cities. The
type and nature of the human landscape around a city, to satisfy various social and
economic needs, has given rise to several phenomena, such as air pollution, water
pollution and micro-climate change (Kondratyev and Varotsos 1995, Varotsos et al.
2005). Apart from these, the urban city centres also tend to have higher solar
radiation absorption and greater thermal capacity and conductivity (Weng 2001).
These changes are mainly a result of a sudden increase in the area of impervious
surfaces within the city, in contrast to its hinterland. This difference in temperature
between the urban and rural areas is called the urban heat island (UHI). The
presence of UHIs has been studied and documented for New York (Jin et al. 2005),
Houston (Streutker 2003), Phoenix (Hawkins et al. 2003), Indianapolis (Weng et al.
2004), Guangzhou (Weng 2003), Beijing (Jin et al. 2005), Seoul (Kim and Baik 2005),
Athens (Katsoulis and Theoharatos 1985) and other cities. The study of UHIs is
relevant pertaining to its relationship with differences in temperature, but also acts as
one of the major factors influencing other phenomena, such as impact on natural
ventilation (Ghiaus et al. 2006) and urban meteorology (Khan and Simpson 2001).
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
International Journal of Remote Sensing
Vol. 30, No. 13, 10 July 2009, 3531–3548
International Journal of Remote SensingISSN 0143-1161 print/ISSN 1366-5901 online # 2009 Taylor & Francis
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journalsDOI: 10.1080/01431160802562289
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Studies have shown that the UHI has a strong influence on weather, leading to
anomalies in rainfall patterns and lightning (Shepherd and Burian 2003). The UHI is
also a factor in the assessment of the role of air-conditioning systems, impact on
human health and environmental conditions (Masson 2006).
Previous studies have examined the UHI phenomenon using both ground-based
and remote sensors. Fast et al. (2005) used temperature data loggers to track the
thermal changes over the city of Phoenix, Arizona, whereas Jung et al. (2005) used
airborne hyperspectral images to study the effect in Hungarian villages. Kato and
Yamaguchi (2005) studied the heat balance during the day time and also the night
time temperature, using Landsat enhanced thematic mapper (ETM + ) and advanced
spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) images.
Stathopoulou et al. (2004) analysed the presence of the UHI using the advanced
very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor on board the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite. Rajasekar and Weng (2009)
analysed the change in UHI patterns over the year using moderate resolution
imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. Voogt and Oke (1998) analysed the
effect of surface geometry on temperature. Weng (2003) analysed the relationship
between land cover and urban heat islands using fractals. Weng et al. (2006)
developed sub-pixel quantitative urban surface biophysical descriptors and related
them to land surface temperature variations. Atkinson (2003) defined a numerical
model of UHI intensity. Streutker (2002) estimated the centre and spread of the UHI
using a parametric model.
There has been considerable research conducted on UHIs, yet it remains difficult
to generalize the magnitude, location and spatial distribution of the UHI for several
reasons. These reasons include the shape, the extent of the city, the layout, the type
and material of the surrounding areas and the resolution of imagery used to
characterise the phenomenon. These factors not only affect the spatial extent of the
UHI, but they also affect its magnitude. Over the years, statisticians have developed
several methods of generalization to compensate for the issue of characterizing the
surface in the spatial domain. While various approaches of kriging and thin plate
spline models have been used successfully for spatial process estimation, they have
the weakness of being global models, in which the variability of the estimated
process is the same throughout the domain. This failure to adapt to variability, or
heterogeneity, in the unknown process, is of particular importance in environ-
mental, geophysical and other spatial datasets, in which domain knowledge
suggests that, in most cases, the phenomenon may be non-stationary (Paciorek and
Schervish 2006). Lastly, a single parametric model could be used for the analysis of
a single image; however, it becomes difficult to apply this over multi-temporal and
multi-sensor images in order to conduct a successful comparative analysis. This
aspect gets further complicated due to the changing nature of the land cover and
land use, and also the fuzziness involved within the boundary between the urban
and rural areas.
The main objectives of this study are three-fold. First, to develop a generation
method using a non-parametric model to characterise the UHI from the Landsat
images. Second, to extract statistical parameters, such as centre, spread, minimum
temperature, maximum temperature, magnitude, etc., from the characterized images.
Third, to analyse and compare statistical parameters extracted from the time series
images to study the change in the UHI in relation to the change in land use and land
cover.
3532 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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2. Study area and data
Indianapolis/Marion County, Indiana, USA, was chosen as the study area. It
possesses several advantages that make this city an appropriate choice for such a
study. Indianapolis has a single central city. The city is located on a flat plain and is
relatively symmetrical, having possibilities of expansion in all directions. Like many
other American cities, Indianapolis, over the past decade, has been rapidly increasing
in population and in area. According to the US census bureau, the population of
Indianapolis in 1980, 1990 and 2000 were 700 807, 731 327 and 781 870, respectively.
The need for space to accommodate this increase in population has led to areal
expansion through encroachment into the adjacent agricultural and non-urban
lands. Certain decision-making forces, such as density of population, distance to
work, property value and income structure, encourage some sectors of metropolitan
Indianapolis to expand faster than others. These characteristics make Indianapolis
an ideal study area for the spatial and temporal change of UHI. Figure 1 shows the
study area and its environment.
Extracting information of land cover from satellite images allows for monitoring
urban changes over time (Weng et al. 2004). There was not sufficient ground-based
thermal sensor data available for the time period under study; as a result, Landsat
thematic mapper (TM) and ETM + images were used. Landsat data is available at
medium resolution, which is a suitable choice for analysing the spatial change over a
long period of time. The TM sensors onboard Landsats were specifically designed
for quantitative analysis of the Earth’s land surfaces (Vogelmanna et al. 2001).
Furthermore, since the spectral window of Landsat TM and ETM + are of similar
ranges (10.4 to 12.5 mm), it makes Landsat images the best available resource for this
study of UHIs over Indianapolis in space and over time. A total of three images, two
from Landsat TM (23 July 1985 and 3 July 1995) and one from Landsat ETM + (22
June 2000) were used for the analysis. All the images were selected during similar
Figure 1. Study area and its environment.
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seasonal times in order to reduce the seasonal variability between images and also to
use the vegetation to differentiate urban from rural settings. For each image, the
amount of cloud cover was less than 10%.
3. Method
The scheme describing the method of characterizing UHI over space and time is
shown in figure 2. A detailed description of the major steps undertaken are presented
in the subsequent subsections.
3.1 Geometric correction
The obtained Landsat images were of correction level ‘systematic’. Therefore, the
geometric corrections of all the images (Landsat-5 and Landsat-7) were carried out
based on image to image geo-rectification. A geometrically pre-corrected and
verified Level 1b ASTER image was used as a base image for the correction of
individual time series images. A range of 20 to 30 sample points was selected, based
on field studies for every image, with respect to the ASTER imagery and were used
for geo-rectification. Once rectified, the thermal infrared band (TIR) was resampled
from 90 to 120 m resolution. This was carried out to bring the images to similar
resolution, i.e. to the spatial resolution of the TIR band of Landsat-5. The results of
the geometric corrections had a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of less than
0.3 of a pixel, which was well under half a pixel.
3.2 Radiometric normalization
There are several different radiometric correction methods available. Choosing the
right method for our study was based on the available data and the task at hand.
There are two most commonly used techniques, absolute radiometric calibrations
and relative radiometric calibrations. Since the context of the study is to analyse the
Figure 2. Flow chart describing the method implemented within this study.
3534 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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UHI effect for the same area from time series images, we preferred the use of relative
radiometric calibration over absolute normalization. The selection of pseudo
invariant features (PIF) in all the images became another important task within
the relative radiometric calibration process. Multivariate-alteration detection
(MAD) (Schroeder et al. 2006), post-correction evaluation index (quadratic
difference index) (Paolini et al. 2006) and a statistical selection of features using
principle component analysis (Du et al. 2002) are some examples of the methods
available. Some of them depend on the field data and others purely depend onstatistical models. In our study, based on our earlier field data and knowledge of the
study area, we decided to implement a semi-statistical approach (Haute 1988) using
temporally invariant features (Chen et al. 2005).
Radiometric normalization of these images was accomplished by converting to
exoatmospheric radiance or black body temperature. The digital number (DN)
values of the Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 TIR band were converted from their sensor-
recorded DN to spectral radiance using equations (1) (Markham and Barker 1985)
and (2) (NASA 2007), respectively:
Ll~0:0056322DNz0:1238 ð1Þ
and
Ll~0:0370588DNz3:2: ð2Þ
The spectral radiance of the TIR bands were then converted into blackbody
temperature using equation (3) (Wukelic et al. 1989):
TB~K2=ln K1=Llz1ð Þ, ð3Þ
where TB is the effective temperature in Kelvin (K); Ll is the spectral radiance in W
m22 sr21 mm21; and K1 and K2 are the pre-launch calibration constants. For
Landsat-5 TM images, K1560.776 mW cm22 sr21 mm and K251260.56 K, and for
Landsat-7 ETM + images, K151282.71 mW cm22 sr21 mm and K25666.09 K.
After the conversion of the images to blackbody temperatures, time-invariant
features (TIFs) between images were selected for normalization. Within this study,
selection of the TIFs were based on previous field surveys, available building historyand visual examination of the true colour and pseudo true colour images over time.
A total of 77 distinct locations, containing both minimum and maximum land
surface temperature (LST) ranges were selected. Care was taken that the selected
points consist of samples from both the maximum and minimum temperature
ranges.
A 2000 Landsat-5 image was selected to be the reference image. The remaining
two images were relatively corrected to this image. The main rationale for
selecting the 2000 image is the availability of other geo-spatial information such asASTER imagery from 2000, temperature characteristics and ASTER-derived land
cover classification at 15 m level for the same period. Furthermore, the 2000 image
was from Landsat-7, with relatively high (90 m) spatial resolution; therefore, the
spatial accuracy of this image was assumed to be greater than the remaining
images.
The land use land cover (LULC) data was developed from the ASTER 2000 image
using a semi-automatic technique. An unsupervised classification method (iterativeself-organizing data analysis) was chosen to classify the ASTER data, with a
maximum iteration of 30. A total of 120 clusters were created and labelled in
Spatio-temporal modelling of urban heat islands 3535
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reference to 2003 and 2005 aerial photos. Reclassification was then executed for the
fuzzy regions. Post-classification smoothing and image refinement were also
conducted to improve the accuracy of image classification. Classification accuracy
for each image was assessed against the 2003 county aerial photo. A stratified
random sampling method was applied to choose 50 samples in every LULC
category. The overall accuracy was above 85%. For a detailed description of the
method implemented and the results acquired, see Liu and Weng (2008). Figure 3
shows the LULC map of seven classes (excluding the background). In the final
classification of Marion County (the study area), the class ‘wetlands’ was not
present, so it was removed and is therefore not visible in table 1.
The final process involved the extraction of the brightness component
(temperature values at TIF locations) from the reference and subject images. The
reference and subject image values for the same locations are now being examined
for the degree of linear association by means of linear regression analysis (Wilks
Figure 3. Land use land cover map derived from ASTER (2000).
Table 1. 2000 LULC classification and their corresponding spectral emissivity.
Class LULC type Spectral emissivity assigned
1 Impervious surfaces 0.9662 Barren lands 0.9773 Grass lands 0.9724 Agriculture 0.9735 Forest land 0.9876 Water 0.991
3536 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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1995). A linear regression equation is tested for the data pair. Using the method of
least squares, the regression equations are:
y~0:771xz62:51 for 1985{2000ð Þ ð4Þ
and
y~0:5195xz134:08 for 1995{2000ð Þ: ð5Þ
The coefficients of determination, R2, (Chattopadhyay and Chattopadhyay-
Bandyopadhyay 2008) for the above equations are 0.9127 and 0.9136, respectively,
and such high values reflect the high degree of linearity between the predictor and the
predictants. A scatter plot is presented in figure 4, where an obvious linear pattern is
apparent. The equations generated above have been used to convert the subject
images to be radiometrically similar to that of the reference image.
3.3 The non-parametric model
This subsection is a modification from the paper by Higdon (2002). Higdon
explained the process convolution for a single dimensional process and made
suggestions for its extension to two or three dimensions. In this study, the process
convolution model was extended by the authors to model the UHI as a two-
dimensional Gaussian process. A Gaussian process over Rd is to take the
independent and identically distributed Gaussian random variables on a lattice in
Rd and convolve them with a kernel. The process involves successively increasing
the density of the lattice by a factor of two in each dimension and reducing the
variance of the variates by a factor of 2d, which leads to a continuous Gaussian
white noise process over Rd. White noise is a (univariate or multivariate) discrete-
time stochastic process whose terms are independent and identically distributed,
all with zero mean. Gaussian white noise is white noise with a normal
distribution. The convolution of this process can be equivalently defined using a
covariogram in Rd. The process of convolution gives very similar results to
defining a process by the covariogram. Nevertheless, the convolution construction
can be readily extended to allow for non-standard features, such as non-
stationarity, edge effects, dimension reduction, non-Gaussian fields and alternative
space–time models.
For example, let us assume that y(1,1), …, y(i,j) (where y is a two dimensional matrix
of (1,1),…,(i,j)) are data recorded over the two-dimensional spatial locations s(1,1),
…, s(i,j) in s, a spatial process z5(z(1,1), …, z(i,j))T and Gaussian white noise e5(e(1,1),
…, e(i,j))T, with variance s2
e:. In this research, the spatial method represents the data
as the sum of an overall mean m.
y~szzze, ð6Þ
where the elements of z are the restriction of the spatial process z(s) to the two-
dimensional data locations s(1,1), …, s(i,j). z(s) is defined to be a mean zero Gaussian
process. Rather than specifying z(s) through its covariance function, it is determined
by the latent process x(s) and the smoothing kernel k(s). The latent process x(s) is
restricted to be non-zero at the two-dimensional spatial sites v(1,1), …, v(a,b), also in s
and x5(x(1,1), …,x(a,b))T is defined, where xvp5x(vp) and p5(1,1), …, (a,b). Each xp
is then modelled as independent draws from an N(0,s2v) distribution. The resulting
continuous Gaussian process is then:
Spatio-temporal modelling of urban heat islands 3537
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a, bð Þ,z sð Þ~Sxjk s{vp
� �,
p~ 1, 1ð Þ,ð7Þ
where k(?2vp) is a kernel centred at vp. This gives a linear model:
(a)
(b)
Figure 4. Graphs obtained for the relative radiometric correction over selected temporalinvariant features: (a) 1985 temperature vs. 2000 temperature and (b) 1995 temperature vs.2000 temperature. All temperatures are in Kelvin.
3538 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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y~ml i, jð ÞzKxze, ð8Þ
where l(i,j) is the (i,j)th vector of l and the elements of K are given by:
Kpy~k sp{vq
� �xy, ð9Þ
x*N 0, s2xl a, bð Þ
� �ð10Þ
and
e*N 0, s2xl i, jð Þ
� �: ð11Þ
The results of this model were then analysed for patterns over space and time. The
comparison was based on the UHI centre and the spread of the UHI over space and
time. The results of the kernel convolution were first compared using two-
dimensional (planar) and three-dimensional (mesh) models. Then, the heat island
was characterized as the phenomenon with temperature above the mean temperature
of the respective image. In order to achieve this, only the values above mean
temperature were considered for further analysis in this research. This process aided
in the removal of negative heat islands (areas where the temperature is much less
than the mean temperature due to the specific nature of the land cover). The heat
contours were then generated from each image. The assumption at this stage is that
all the images were relatively corrected, and therefore the temperature contours
should be comparable. The increase or decrease in the size of each contour would
indicate the extent of positive/negative change in the UHI over time.
4. Results
4.1 Sensitivity analysis
As described in equation (8), the smoothing kernel, or the parameter that defines the
degree of smoothing, is very important. One can also note that, as the degree of
smoothing is inversely proportional to the smoothing kernel, i.e. as the value of the
smoothing kernel decreases, the degree of smoothing over the spatial domain
increases. Within the model, the degree of smoothing is maximum at ‘1’, leading to a
kernel-convoluted image, whose values are equivalent to the mean of the original
image. The degree of smoothing is minimum (or zero smoothing) when the
smoothing parameter is equal to ‘0’. In this case, the final kernel-convoluted image is
the same as that of the original image. Within our study, the selection of appropriate
smoothing parameters that would best describe the phenomenon under study was a
challenging task. Before arriving at final values, a sensitivity analysis was performed
with various smoothing parameters and a sample image (year 2000 image). The
results obtained from the sensitivity analysis are illustrated in figure 5.
From the results obtained by the various simulations, the smoothing value of 0.5
(see equations (6), (7) and (8)) was selected to be the most appropriate for this study.
With this smoothing parameter, the number of heat islands that were characterized
was minimal. The focus of this study was to understand the development and spread
of the UHI over the entire city. The minimum number would clarify effective
comparisons of the city as a whole, rather than small regions with minor variations,
leading to a global model for the city of Indianapolis. At the same time, care was also
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taken that over-smoothing did not occur. The selected smoothing parameter (0.5)
was then used to characterize remaining images.
4.2 Characterizing UHIs
The image statistics describing minimum, maximum and mean temperatures
before and after kernel convolution are given in table 2. The statistics of the images
before convolution show a strong variation between minimum–maximum and
mean–maximum temperatures. These variations are attributed to outliers present
within the LULC. These outliers are the result of certain LULC within Marion
County, radiating either very high or very low temperatures. The process of kernel
convolution aided in reducing the effect of these outliers and characterizing the
temperature within Marion County as a process (see figure 6, which shows the
result of the image before and after convolution). The results from the images after
the kernel convolution are uniform within the analysed time series. The change in
temperature within the time series images were in the range of 0.5–2.0uC, with a
constant increase in the temperature from 1985 to 2000. The city’s development is
highly correlated to this increase in temperature leading to an increased UHI
effect.
Since the main aim of this research was to analyse the UHI effect within
Indianapolis city, it becomes important to differentiate between the urban and rural
regions. In the domain of image classification algorithms, there has been a range of
studies aimed at implementing varying methods to differentiate between urban and
(a)
(e)
(b)
(g)
(c)
( f ) (h)
(d )
Figure 5. Result of the sensitivity analysis performed over Landsat-7 (year 2000) imagery.From (a) to (h), the smoothing parameter ranges from 0.1–0.9.
Table 2. Description of the image statistics before and after kernel convolution. Alltemperature values are in K.
Image statistics
Date
Before After
Minimum Maximum Mean Minimum Maximum Mean
23 July 1985 263.9 302.23 291.74 289.38 293.7 291.723 July 1995 275.86 304.79 292.07 290.42 293.45 292.0322 June 2000 283.14 303.62 292.51 291.39 293.77 292.55
3540 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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rural environments. Some of these methods are based on manual methods, and some
are based on statistical approaches. In spite of several semantic descriptions of urban
and rural areas, the boundary between them remains fuzzy. More often, the
development of mixed land use, e.g. residential housing areas around agricultural
areas, has led the relationship between the urban and rural regions to be both fuzzy
and disjoint. In this study, to perform the initial analysis, we adapted a novel
approach of using the mean temperature value as an indicator for differentiating the
urban environment from its surrounding rural environment. The process involved
separating the image into two regions. One class includes the regions equal to and
above the mean value and the other includes the regions below the mean values. This
method was more appropriate to our model because, through the process of kernel
convolution, the mean temperature of the image is retained, while the variates of the
variance are varied. In the new image, the regions below the mean temperature were
assigned a uniform value equivalent to that of the mean temperature of that
particular image. The temperature values of the remaining region were retained. This
process further facilitated that the study would remain towards the analysis of the
positive UHI effect.
Figure 7 shows the UHIs of time 1985, 1995 and 2000. From the structure of the
temperature values within the study area, we can infer that the northern and
southern part of Indianapolis have undergone considerable increase in the surface
temperature over the selected years. Furthermore, we were able to infer that the rate
of change of temperature from the city centre towards the rural background is
gradual in the case of 1995 and 2000 images and this rate of change is steep in the
case of the 1985 image. One of the main reasons for this effect is the change in land
use and land cover over these selected time periods. The mixed developments within
the rural areas have also contributed to the overall increase in temperature around
rural areas, contributing to the slope of the heat island decreasing over time. This
difference is very strong between 1985 and 1995, compared to the 1995 and 2000
images. This demonstrates that the rate of change of urban heat from its centre to its
periphery is directly proportional to the rate of development/urbanization
(impervious surfaces) in the case of Indianapolis.
(a) (b)
Figure 6. The effect of kernel convolution on the Landsat-7 image. (a) and (b) represent theimage before and after kernel convolution respectively.
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4.3 Space–time analysis of the UHI
The characterized surface temperature image was then converted into contour lines.
These lines were analysed with respect to each other and with respect to false colour
composite (FCC) images using bands 4–3–2. From the analysis of the independent
contour line (see figure 8(a)), we can visualize the change in the concentration of heat
(relative radiometric temperature profiles) with respect to time. Over the 5 year
period from 1995 to 2000, the UHI around central Indianapolis has increased in
both its size and spread. During the 15 year period, 1985 to 2000, the spread
increased 7.7 km in the east–west direction and 5 km in the north–south direction.
This increase could be attributed to several reasons, such as reduction in the amount
of canopies, change in land cover and change in land use. This increase in the spread
of the UHI also coincides with the fact that the population of Indianapolis has
increased from 700 807 in 1980 to 781 870 in 2000, an increase of more than 10% in
20 years. On comparing the centre of the UHIs, we were able to identify a modest
shift of 0.3 km towards the northwest direction from 1985 to 1995. There is also a
minimal shift of 1 km towards the east from 1995 to 2000 (see figure 8(b)) because the
development of Indianapolis as a city has been occurring in cardinal directions. This
LULC change in directions may not be the same in terms of the increase in
impervious surface area, but contribute similar amounts of thermal radiation
generated. For example, slow development of industrial areas around the south, and
fast development of commercial and residential areas around the north contribute
comparable amounts of thermal radiation. Based on the current study, the
Figure 7. Three-dimensional (3D) images of the UHI: (a–c) 3D model characterizing theurban heat, (d–f) cross-sections of the model (a–c) along the east–west direction, and (g–i) thecross-section of the model (a–c) along the north–south direction. The scale represents therelative difference in uC (y axis). Each unit is equivalent to approximately 1uC.
3542 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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movement of the centre of the UHI is detected as being directed towards the
northeast. Nevertheless, a future study, incorporating the same model but involving
the analysis of 2005 and 2007 images, would shed more light into the movement of
the UHI over time.
From the overlay analysis of the contour lines over the FCC (see figure 9), we
observed that the characteristic shape of the UHI is strongly correlated with the
location and distribution of impervious surfaces. There were few changes (except for
an overall increase in the temperature) in the pattern of the UHI around the city
centre due to the fact that the city centre has not undergone much change over the 15
year period from 1985 to 2000. However, changes in pattern, especially spread, were
evident around the periphery of the heat island. These outer rings were more biased
towards the west due to the urbanization at the northwest part of Indianapolis
adjacent to the highway (I-486).
From figures 9(a) and (b), we can infer that the UHI is spread unevenly from the
central business district. During the period from 1985 to 1995, the city of
Indianapolis started to spread around the south and north with more concentration
in the northeast. These developments were mainly residential. From the FCC, one
can also visualize that the area of impervious surfaces (cyan in the figure) around the
northeast corner of the city has increased in the 1995 image in comparison with the
1985 image. This development, and its influence on the UHI, have continued beyond
2000, and is evident from the figure 9(c). The change in the UHI within this 5 year
period (from 1995 to 2000) is more evident in all the directions (east, west, south,
northeast and northwest). Apart from urbanization, figure 9(c) also shows the
influence of the type of land cover on the UHI pattern. In spite of considerable
development around the north-western part of Indianapolis, this region is highly
influenced by the lake and the dense canopies of the semi-forested areas. For the
period 1995 to 2000, increases in impervious surfaces had no significant change in
the mean heat around this region. This might also be due to the structure and shape
of the development that took place. A detailed understanding of this might shed
(a) (b)
Figure 8. (a) Comparison of the UHI centres over time and (b) the change in the size of theUHI core from 1985 to 2000, illustrated with an example of a constant temperature ring of20uC.
Spatio-temporal modelling of urban heat islands 3543
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more light towards understanding the nature of developments that might contribute
to less thermal radiation.
Overall, the model aided in closing the gap within current research by providing a
method to analyse UHIs effectively from multi-sensor multi-temporal images in both
space and time. The characterization of the UHI through a non-parametric kernel
convolution model using fast Fourier transforms, rather than the conventional
parametric model, facilitated efficient analysis. Furthermore, this model could also
aid in the analysis of multiple images from Landsat and other similar sensor images
with minimal human intervention. This model, if extended further, could be very
useful for comparing the change in urban heat patterns over time, not just for one
city, but also be helpful in comparing between major developed and developing cities
around the USA and the rest of the world.
(a)
(c)
(b)
Figure 9. Overlay analysis of characterized UHI pattern over the FCC of Landsat images:(a) 1985, (b) 1995 and (c) 2000.
3544 U. Rajasekar and Q. Weng
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5. Conclusions
The problems of characterizing and modelling UHIs over space and time still exist.
Parametric modelling may be helpful in characterizing the UHI over space.
However, parametric models do not prove to be efficient while characterizing the
same phenomenon over different space and/or over varying temporal resolution. In
order to address this issue, the present research developed a non-parametric model
for analysing the behaviour of the UHI in space and time using Landsat TM and
Landsat ETM images. Non-parametric analysis using kernel convolution was
explored to characterize the phenomenon over space. Furthermore, with the
advancement in the field of spatial analysis, techniques such as three-dimensional
visualization and overlay analysis were explored to analyse the effect over time.
Through this research, a synergic merger model for UHI pattern extraction and
analysis from Landsat-5 and 7 images was conceptualized and developed.
Landsat-5 images from the year 1985 and 1995, together with Landsat-7 images of
the year 2000, covering the city of Indianapolis, USA, were used to test the
conceptual model. The images were processed for relative radiometric correction in
order to facilitate comparison and analysis. The images were then characterized into
a continuous surface using the kernel convolution technique. In order to arrive at the
best smoothing parameter, a sensitivity analysis was performed using the 2000
image. From the results of this analysis, a smoothing parameter of value 0.5 was
selected and was used to characterize the rest of the images.
The characterized images were then analysed for change over time using
visualization and overlay techniques. It was found that the spread of UHIs
increased from 7.7 km in the x direction and from 5 km in the y direction for the 1985
and 2000 images. The increase in the spread of the UHI coincided with the increase
in population from 700 807 in 1980 to 781 870 in 2000 (an increase of more than 10%
in 20 years time). On comparing the centre of the UHI, we were able to identify a
modest shift of 0.3 km towards the northwest direction from 1985 to 1995, and a
shift of 1 km towards the east from 1995 to 2000. The rate of urbanization and its
direction were evident by analysing the UHI contour map in conjunction with the
false colour composite image using bands 4–3–2 and ASTER derived LULC for the
year 2000. It was found that the rate of development has been even around
Indianapolis, with concentration at the north and south ends of the city over the
years 1985 to 2000. It was also found that land cover played a vital part in thermal
behaviour. A well-balanced land cover, consisting of forests, water bodies and
impervious surfaces tends to radiate less heat in comparison with uneven
distributions of these. However, this effect may also be due to the shape or the
structure of urban development. An in-depth analysis into this is needed to come to a
definite conclusion. The heat contours not only defined the UHI, but could also be
used for differentiating the urban and rural boundary. This boundary map could be
made crisp or fuzzy by using different temperatures as a parameter in conjunction
with a land use and land cover map.
Landsat has much potential for providing good time series images of the major
cities around the world from 1985 onwards. Furthermore, other products that are
generated from it could be used for the further understanding of the behaviour of the
phenomenon under study. This model could also be improved and extended for
spatio-temporal analysis using other images, such as ASTER, and for studying the
phenomenon for other major cities of the world. The developed model is very
promising for data mining and analysing the spatio-temporal characteristics of the
Spatio-temporal modelling of urban heat islands 3545
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UHI. It would help the researchers to answer questions such as the effect of temporalresolution in the monitoring of UHI, the areas within a city causing major impacts
and how LULC affects the nature and spread of the UHI. Furthermore, there have
been studies that have demonstrated that the UHI effect has a strong impact on
energy needs, climate, biodiversity, residential water use, etc. The results of this study
will be useful to researchers within the above-mentioned domains. The results from
this proposed model could be used as an input to some of the climate and energy
utilization models in order to study the cause and effect relationship between these
phenomena. The combined results of the models could aid urban planners andenvironmental managers in understanding the effect of land use and land cover on
the thermal radiation around cities.
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the National Science Foundation (BCS-0521734) for a
project entitled ‘Role of Urban Canopy Composition and Structure in Determining
Heat Islands: A Synthesis of Remote Sensing and Landscape Ecology Approach’. Dr
Hua Liu assisted us in ASTER image acquisition and processing of land use and
land cover classification. We would also like to thank the two anonymous reviewersfor their constructive comments and suggestions.
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