plenary 1 - the science of climate change

Living with

Global Warming

Tolentino B. Moya, Ph DInstitute of Environmental Science and MeteorologyCollege of Science, University of the PhilippinesDiliman, Quezon City

The Earth is warming

Global populationGlobal population 6.48 billionStill grows by over 70 million a year9 billion by 2050 – up to 12 billionMost future growth in developing

worldGrowth variable – TFR 1.2 – 8Many low pop growth countries

wealthyMost high pop growth countries poor

CARBON DIOXIDE

Carbon emissions

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were 64.5 million tonnes (approximately 0.3% of world total)

The share of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels was 76.6% from oil, 17.0% from coal, and 6.4% from natural gas in 2002

Philippine energy and environment

Fossil fuel reserves of the country include: proven oil reserve of 24.2 million m3

proven natural gas reserve of 3 trillion m3, and proven coal reserves of 236 million M tons

Energy Consumption

Total electricity generation capacity in the country - 51.2 billion Kwh in 2003 61.9% thermal 15.8% hydro and 22.2% geothermal

Growth rate - 5.9% per annum between 1999 and 2003

Total energy consumption was 1.18 quadrillion Btu

TEMPERATURESIn the Philippines

pcierd.dost.gov.ph/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=65&Itemid=41

RAINFALL

Hydrological impacts—precipitation changes

Philippine rainfall anomalies


TROPICAL CYCLONES

Super typhoons caused by global warming?

STC

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Sta

ndar

dize

d an

omal

ies

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Standardized anom

alies

original

2-8 yr

8-16 yr

16-32 yr

Standardized number of TCs making landfall in South China, Vietnam and Philippines

stan

dar

diz

ed a

no

mal

ies

stand

ardized

ano

malies

SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea levels rising?

Philippine sea level rising?

Philippine sea level rising


Will sea levels rise further?

Climate change

Rising seas Half meter rise by 2100 will double number of

people affected by flooding (to 100 m) Coastal land and mangroves damaged Severe implications for fish-stocks from a

warming ocean (wind strength and ocean circulation will affect breeding and migration patterns)

Vulnerability information systems

El Niño - La Niña Vulnerability Map

Support for Greenhouse Gas Inventory

www.sc.chula.ac.th/courseware/2303105/BBAPart4_2n.ppt

Consequences of Global Warming

Agriculture: Changes in crop yields

Irrigation demands,Productivity

Forests: Change in Ecologies,

Geographic range of species, and

Health and productivity

Coastal Areas: Erosion and flooding

InundationChange in wetlands

Water Resources: Changes in water supply

and water qualityCompetition/Trans-border

Issues

Human Health: Weather related

mortality Infectious disease

Air quality - respiratory illness

Industry and Energy:

Changes in Energy demand

Product demand & Supply

Global warming impacts

Water supplies

Water sources for large cities could shrink or even dry up

People would have to migrate to where there is an adequate water source

Summer runoff from snowmelt of glaciers provides 20-50% of the total stream flow in the surrounding drainage basins. The removal of such glaciers will reduce the area exposed to summer melting thus reducing the availability of water to lowland areas

Thermal impacts

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1920 1960 2000Year

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(°C

)

1920 1960 2000Year

Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean

Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere

LandOcean

Weather extremes

When more heat is held in the climate system, more air will move across the surface, causing higher wind speeds, more clashing warm and cold fronts, and more violent weather

Tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons, and violent storms will be more intense as well as an increase in the number of these disasters

Biodiversity Impacts: Winners and Losers

Possible effects of global warming on the geographic range of some tree species based on ecological evidence and computer models.

Impacts on wildlife

Polar bears Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct

in the wildSea turtles

Breed on the same islands as their births

Could go extinct as some beaches are flooded

Other species could go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world

Food production 800 million undernourished (hungry)

with no money to buy available food 3 billion malnourished Many countries not self-sufficient in

food Total calorie production has kept

pace with population growth thanks to oil crops, but…

per capita grain production has fallen for past two decades (380 to 330 kgs/person)

Climate change Global warming has already cut rice

harvests by 10% for every 1 degree inc in night-time temperatures

Rice production needs to increase 1% annually to keep pace with demand….but

3.5 degree rise this century would see rice yields decline another 30%

Modern strains of rice may be resistant to rising temperatures (IRRI – Philippines)

Impacts on food production With a warmer world some regions may experience

benefits in crop production, while others will be less prosperous

Drops of crop yields of even 10% would cause large increases in hunger and starvation and also cause economic and social turmoil Rice yields decreases with rise in nighttime temperature Wheat has lower protein content at high CO2

An increase of 1-2 degrees Celsius can cause corals to become bleached; 3-4 degrees will kill coral animals; decreasing marine productivity

Effect on Humans Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation

Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic

CO2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes

Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

Warm weather means more disease (yellow fever, malaria, and others)

Bacteria and molds on stored foods will also increase, meaning more spoilage of foods and food poisoning

Possible Solutions to Global Warming

Dealing with global warming

Climate change is such a difficult problem to deal with because: The problem is global. The effects will last a long time. The problem is a long-term political issue. The harmful and beneficial impacts of climate

change are not spread evenly. Many actions that might reduce the threat are

controversial because they can impact economies and lifestyles.

Cost to stabilize CO2 concentrations

450 550 650 750

18001600140012001000

800600400200

0

Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

Co

st (

Tri

llon

s U

.S. D

olla

rs)

Dealing with the threat of global warming

A precautionary strategy should be adopted Scientists and economists in this school

of thought strongly believe that the safest course to take is informed preventative action

To stabilize CO2 levels, current emissions would need to be cut by 66-83%

Quickest and cheapest way is to use energy more efficiently

Many people oppose placing stringent Immigration policies for moral reasons

Mitigation of Global Warming

Conservation Reduce energy needs Recycling

Alternate energy sources Biofuels Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar

Storage of CO2 in geological formations

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7

1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs2. CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery3. Deep saline formations—(a) offshore (b) onshore4. CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

3a

2

3b

1

4

Scientific consensus

Global warming is happeningMost warming is probably the result of

human activitiesThere will be positive and negative (mostly)

repercussions from global warmingThere will be winners and losers in global

warmingThe costs to mitigate global warming will be

high – better spent elsewhere?

Scientific consensus

Virtually all climate scientists and researchers agree that global climate is changing.

Virtually all climate researchers agree that human fossil fuel use plays a large role in driving climate change.

There is uncertainty over other possible factors that may be involved, and how they might interact with anthropogenic causes.

Be prepared for climate surprises.

Ongoing debate over climate change

There is much debate over what to do about climate change. Would costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions outweigh

costs of climate change?

Should industrialized nations bear more responsibility for reducing emissions, or should all nations share equally?

Should emissions reduction occur voluntarily, or through legal, political, or economic pressure?

How should we allocate funds to reduce emissions and deal with climate change impacts?

What About LDCs ?

Some suggestions:Forgive debt to LDCsFund the transfer of energy efficiency,

pollution control, sustainable agriculture and reforestation technologies

In exchange, LDCs would “agree” to stop deforestation, slow population growth, have fairer land distribution, etc.

…A sustainable future

…A sustainable future…A sustainable future

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.Alan Kay (Inventor of OS for Apple Computers)

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.Alan Kay (Inventor of OS for Apple Computers)

Maraming Salamat PoMagandang Araw

plenary 1 - the science of climate change

Education

philippine energy

consequences of global

water supply

total energy consumption

philippine sea level

availability of water

water supplies water

sea level rise