plot one pilkington road, 10th flour worker’s...

1

Plot one Pilkington Road, 10th Flour Worker’s House,

P.O Box 7317 Kampala, Tel. 0312-264095/0312-264103-5 Fax. 0414-346013

2

PRESENTED BY

GODFREY R. TURYAHIKAYO

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

RURAL ELECTRIFICATION AGENCY

DATE: 10TH JUNE 2009

AFRICAN ELECTRIFICATION INITIATIVE WORKSHOP,

MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, 9 – 12 JUNE 2009

INDICATIVE RURAL ELECTRIFICATION MASTER PLAN

(IREMP) FOR UGANDA

3

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION

A. Background

B. Indicative Rural Electrification Master Plan (IREMP) Objectives

C. The IREMP Targets

D. The IREMP Process Establishing Rural Demand

Grid Project Identification

Grid Project Prioritization

Off-Grid Project Prioritization

E. The Master Plan and its Roll-out

F. Implementation Experience and Challenges

G. Conclusion

4

Population – about 30 Million

Growth rate of 3.2% per year

About 85% of the population lives in rural areas

Dependent on agriculture, specifically subsistence farming

National Electricity Access – about 10%

Rural Electrification Access – about 5%

Policy and Legislative Instruments Supporting

Rural Electrification

A. BACKGROUND

5

Energy Policy (2002) promotes “increased

access to modern affordable energy services as a contribution to poverty eradication”

Electricity Act (1999) which liberalized the Sector and created the Rural ElectrificationFund (REF)

Rural Electrification Strategy and Plan (2001) – emphasizing private sector participation

A. BACKGROUND (CONT.)

6

Statutory Instrument No. 75 of 2001 which

established the REF and the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and Rural Electrification Board (REB)

Renewable Energy Policy (2007) which provides incentives for investments in grid connected generation plants and generation for independent grids.

A. BACKGROUND (CONT.)

7

Main Objective

To enable Government promote the rural electrification

programme through public and private sector

participation in a coordinated manner, with a clear idea

on future options available for accessing electricity

services to different areas, regions, communities and

economic activities.

Specific Objectives

i. Package at least five grid connected short-term Priority

Rural Electrification Projects (PREPs) for private

sector development through a competitive process

B. IREMP OBJECTIVES

8

Specific Objectives (Cont.)

ii. Gather information on regional demand profiles and

the costs on-grid, isolated grid and stand alone

projects, to be included in the Rural Electrification Data

Base for use by the various stakeholders.

iii. Establish priorities for public and private investments in

underserved rural areas, including for “regional equity

projects”.

iv. Indicate a 10-year least cost investment plan for

expansion of the national distribution network in rural

areas.

B. IREMP OBJECTIVES (CONT.)

9

Connect at least 450,000 new rural consumers over a

10-year period

C. IREMP TARGETS

Period Grid Off-Grid Total

Per

Period

Per

Annum

Per

Period

Per

Annum

Per

Period

Yr 1 & 2 150,000 75,000 50,000 10,000 300,000

Yr 3 to 5 100,000 33,333

Yr 6 to 10 100,000 20,000 50,000 10,000 150,000

Total 350,000 100,000 450,000

10

D. MASTER PLANNING PROCESS

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Step 5

Step 6

Establish Potential Demand

Assess Available and Preferred On and Off-Grid Technologies

Identify Grid Projects and EvaluateFinancial Implications

Identify Off-Grid Projects and EvaluateFinancial Implications

Prioritized Projects

Aggregate Prioritize Projects andPresent as IREMP

D.1 Schematic for the Planning Process

11

D.2 Establish Rural Demand

Use of Demographic Data from Uganda Bureau of

Statistics (UBOS)

Arial reconnaissance to understand nature of

settlement distribution

Corroboration of UBOS data through detailed field

surveys at district level, sector information (health,

education, water) and regional workshops

Capture of data in a GIS Database

Identification and quantification of economic

and social facilities/activities requiring

electrification and their energy requirements

12

D.2 Establish Rural Demand (Cont.)

Economic Sector

Agriculture (Agro-processing and farms)

Mining and quarrying

Telecoms and ICT

Settlements

Small scale economic activities (e.g. trading centres)

District headquarters

Households

Social Sector Health (hospitals and health centres Educational institutions Public water supply

Ability and willingness to pay survey

With the above information, we were able to establish the electricity demand projections (i.e. national load profile determination)

13

D.3 Grid Project Identification

Identification of lines and spurs picking up

the identified loads:-

Resulting into an emerging or proposed

grid extension plan.

Investigation of technical viability of the

proposed grid extension plan:-

Information on loading of existing

substations, transformers and feeders

Assessment of new load relative to the

existing load

14

D.3 Grid Project Identification (Cont.)

Simulation of grid extension plans to

determine if and where network strengthening might be required.

Determination of technology types for:

Network strengthening (e.g. voltage

regulators, reconductoring of lines, grid

embedded small hydro generation, capacitor

banks, etc.)

MV and LV networks (conventional or SWER, spanning length, conductor size and type, structure types, etc.)

Connections

15

D.4 Grid Project Prioritization

i. Use of “Benefit Points” (BP) criteria (first used in Namibia and South Africa).

Proxy method for determining the viability of a project on “least tariff basis”

BP system gives relative weighting to each potential electricity consumer based on energy consumption and broader economic benefits.

Reference point is a household given BP = 1

Small shop: BP = 3

Secondary School: BP = 22

Health Centre (HV IV): BP = 70

Small processing plant (e.g. coffee hulling): BP = 250

Large industries (fish processing, tea factory, etc)

BP = 2,500 – 5,000

16

D.4 Grid Project Prioritization (Cont.)

BP criteria also provides a simple correlation between energy cost against meters of 33KV per benefit point (M/BP).

For a given cluster of a load, sum up total BPs

Calculate number of meters of 33KV line per BP

Least M/BP implies least cost (least tariff)

ii.Tariff-based Prioritization

Prioritization of projects which show “value for money” for a given budget

17


Value for money was determined by considering:

“Marginal investment cost” of each additional section

“Marginal cost” (investment, O&M, energy, etc.) of that section and the “marginal tariff”

“Average tariff” over a number of successively added sections (sum of all costs of participating sections divided by sum of sections’ consumption)

18


If the average cost rises to a point where it exceeds the “affordability” limit, this becomes the cut-off point for grid extension along that line.

Other loads beyond this point are connected more cheaply via an off-grid solution

19

D.5 Off-Grid Project Prioritization

Loads not reachable via main grid are off-grid targets

Islands which are physically unreachable

Loads where capital cost per connection or least cost energy supply option is much higher when supplied by grid connection than another option

Mini-grid projects prioritized on:

Lowest tariff basis

Total Benefit Points” criteria

20

D.5 Off-Grid Project Prioritization (Cont.)

Stand alone solutions (PV, Pico hydros, small diesel/petrol gensets) for loads outside denser settlements

Project areas identified by default as those outside main grid and mini-grid lines

For mini-grids, only diesel based systems were considered (almost 50 mini-grids with about 8,500 consumers)

21

D.5 Off-Grid Project Prioritization (Cont.)

Stand alone systems identified (mainly candidates for PV)

Health facilities – 2,452

Education – 9,500

Water supply – 251

Households – 2.7 million (out of 3.7 million Households)

(75% could afford some sort of PV, 50% of PV systems below 15WP)

22

E. THE MASTER PLAN AND ITS ROLL OUT

IREMP assumes that:

All non-domestic connections are made in the first year after construction of a specific line

For on-grid connection

25% of domestic connections made in Year 1

Domestic connections grow at 50% in ten years

E.1 Key Roll-out Assumptions for the 10-Year Plan

23

E. THE MASTER PLAN AND ITS ROLL OUT (CONT.)

For off-grid (diesel based)

– 25% of domestic connection only can be realized

Identified micro/mini hydros plus others to be identified later will be matched with communities during the IREMP roll-out

E.1 Key Roll-out Assumptions for the 10-Year Plan (Cont.)

24


E.2 Summary IREMP Results

Connections (Rounded)

Region Yr 1-2 Yr 3-5 Yr 6-10 Total Max Connectivit

y

North 54,500 4,400 51,500 110,400 111,800 99%

North-East 5,600 3,400 11,700 20,700 21,500 96%

East 34,700 67,300 28,900 130,900 131,800 99%

Central 22,900 46,500 28,300 97,600 105,300 93%

West 24,800 31,600 28,400 84,900 93,600 91%

West Nile 11,700 9,100 5,200 25,900 49,800 52%

Total 154,200 162,300 153,900 470,000 513,700 92%

Cumulative 154,200 316,500 470,000

Target 150,000 300,000 450,000

Table E1: On-Grid Connections

25


E.2 Summary IREMP Results (Cont.)

MV KM

Region Yr 1-2 Yr 3-5 Yr 6-10 Total

North 1,165 106 1,006 2,277

North-East 273 102 111 486

East 197 84 463 744

Central 679 1,484 726 2,889

West 627 1,099 1,083 2,809

West Nile 747 913 1,079 2,740

Total 3,688 3,788 4,469 11,945

Cumulative 3,688 7,476 11,945

Table E2: MV KM

26



Region MVA Rounded

Yr 1-2 Yr 3-5 Yr 6-10 Total

North 11.4 0.9 9.9 22.2

North-East 2.7 0.7 3.1 6.5

East 11.2 14.9 7.0 33.1

Central 9.4 8.8 10.6 28.9

West 11.7 9.0 9.8 30.5

West Nile 3.7 2.0 1.0 6.7

Total 50.1 36.3 41.4 127.8

Cumulative 50.1 86.4 127.8

Target 75 125 150

Table E3: On-Grid MVA

27



USD Million Rounded

Region Yr 1-2 Yr 3-5 Yr 6-10 Total

North 27.5 2.4 23.6 53.5

North-East 4.4 2.1 9.0 15.5

East 16.9 34.8 16.9 68.5

Central 14.7 25.3 23.2 63.2

West 17.4 20.6 21.8 59.8

West Nile 12.7 9.0 2.6 24.3

Total 93.6 94.2 97.1 284.9

Cumulative 93.6 187.8 284.9

Table E4: Subsidised Grid Investment

Note: i) Excluding Grid Strengthening and hydros, which adds further USD

79.2 Million (USD 364.1M Total)

ii) The figures used are for the 2003 dollar value

28



Table E5: Subsidy Per Connection

Region USD/Conn Hydro% MV% LV% Conn%

North 485 - 73% 12% 15%

North-East 753 - 79% 10% 11%

East 523 - 69% 16% 16%

Central 648 - 73% 14% 13%

West 704 - 75% 12% 13%

West Nile 937 50% 36% 5% 8%

Total 606 4% 70% 12% 14%

29

IREMP has identified a total of 644 MV (33KV) lines (regional distribution lines and spurs) for construction during the 10-year planning period.

Total length of the lines is 11,945km

Information gathered on each line includes numbers per consumption category (see attached spreadsheet):

Trading centres (classified as a, b, c, d)

Villages (household clusters)

Educational institutions

Health facilities (hospitals, health centres II, III, IV)

Mines/quarries

Agriculture (processing plants and farms)

Telecommunication facilities


E.3 National Grid Roll-out Plan

30

Connections (categorized according to consumption)

Maximum “Benefit Points”

Technology (phase, conductor type and size)

Required type and magnitude of strengthening

Capital layout (MV and associated LV)

Subsidy requirements

O & M costs, etc.

Period for implementation on the basis of prioritization (1-2, 3-5, 6-10 years)

Line codes referred on GIS so that more detailed information can be obtained

Regional categorization (based on primary substations) has been used to ease choice of projects to include in a particular package for mobilizing funding with the aim of achieving regional equity.

Proposals have been made on areas to focus on during the first five years for the next wave of PREPS.


E.3 National Grid Roll-out Plan (Cont.)

31

The original purpose of IREMP was to have an instrument for private sector initiative to invest in RE. However:

The first wave of projects (PREPs) and simulations on priority lines have indicated that private sector upfront investment will remain low.

Bilateral funding partners (Sida, Norad, JICA, etc.) insist on public financing and ownership of infrastructure other than the private sector.

Notable interest in IREMP by bilateral and multi-lateral partners with a view to providing assistance to projects that bring in “value for money”. Several packages have been made using the IREMP (Norad, JICA, AfDB, IDB).

Despite the IREMP, local funding (budget from Government) still tends to favour politically oriented projects.

Achieving targets within the stipulated planning periods will depend on availability of financial resources. Periods for negotiation of assistance and the quanta of the assistance are very critical in meeting the targets.

F. IMPLEMENTATION EXPERIENCE AND CHALLENGES

32

Master plans can work provided:-

They are updated regularly to capture changing circumstances.

Resources are available in time.

Political influence in project choice and funding is minimized.

G. CONCLUSION

33

THANK YOU

END

plot one pilkington road, 10th flour worker’s...

Documents