plug-in hybrid electric vehicles apsenergy march 2 nd, 2008 dr. mark duvall electric power research...

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

APSenergyMarch 2nd, 2008

Dr. Mark DuvallElectric Power Research Institute

2© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)Combustion engine and stored electric energy both usedAdaptation of existing hybrids

Range-Extended Electric Vehicle (REEV)Drive power is primarily electricEngine is used only when stored electrical energy is exhausted

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Use on on-board electricityRecharged from electrical gridNo engine

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)Combustion engine plus one or more electric motors. Uses only hydrocarbon fuel


A Few Thoughts on Current Status(2007 was a big year)

•Most major OEMs have either announced PHEV activities or are already moving– Diversity of activities– Major presence at Detroit Auto Show– Recent DOE solicitation

•Reunification of PHEV concept to include both EV-based and HEV-based concepts

•Growing consensus around advanced battery manufacturing and cost as key issues

•Renewed discussion on the future of U.S. battery manufacturing


Plug-In Hybrid – Many Different Designs

Split Parallel

Series


Vehicle Fuel Economy Analyses


Vehicle Fuel Economy – Torque Control

Battery Depleting

Battery Sustaining

• Component efficiencies from modeling (FUDS)

• Fuel inputs need Gasoline to Electricity Equivalence:– Fuel Costs ($/gal, $/kWh)– Well to Tank Efficiency – CO2 Emissions (g/kWh, g/gal)


Vehicle Fuel Economy – Torque Control

• Results of Optimization– T_engine = f(rpm, T_command)

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Powertrain Speed, rpm

De

sir

ed

Po

we

rtra

in O

utp

ut

To

rqu

e,

Nm

Optimal Engine Torque

-16.18095

-16.18095-16.18095

-1.871905

-1.871905

-1.871905

12.43

714

12.4371412.43714

12

.43

71

4

26.7

4619

26.74

619

26.7461926.74619

26

.74

61

9

41.05

524

41.0

5524

41.05524

41

.05

52

4

55.3

6429

55.36

429

55.36429

55.36429

55

.36

42

9

69.6

7333

69.67

333

69.6733369.6733369.67333

69

.67

33

3

83.9

8238

83.98

238

83.9823883.9823883.98238

83

.98

23

8

98.2

9143

98.29

143

98.2914398.29143

98.29

143

112.

6005

112.6

005

112.6005112.6005

112.6

005

126.

9095

126.9

095

126.9095

126.9095

141.

2186

141

.2186

141.2186

141.2186

155.5276

155.

5276

155.5276

155.5

276

169.8367

169.

8367

169.8367

16

9.8

36

7

184.1457

184.1457

184.1457

184.1

457

198.4548

198.4548

198.4

548

212.7638

212.

763

8

212.7638

227.0

729

227.

0729

227.0729 241.3819

255.6

91

255.6

91

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Powertrain Speed, rpm

De

sir

ed

Po

we

rtra

in O

utp

ut

To

rqu

e,

Nm

Optimal Engine Torque

-16.

18095

-16.18095

-16.18095

-16

.18

09

5

-1.8

719

05

-1.871905

-1.871905

-1.8

71

90

5

12.43

714

12.43714

12.43

714

26.74

619

26.74619

41.05

52441.05524

55.36

42955.36429

69.67333

69.67333

69.67333

83

.98

23

8

83.98238

98.2

914

3

98.29143

112.

6005112.6005

126.

9095126.9095

141.

2186

141.

2186141.2186

155.

5276

155.5276155.5276 169.8367

169.8367 184.1457

198.4548

212.7638212.7638227.0729

241.3819255.691

Battery Depleting – Fueling Cost OptimizedBattery Sustaining


Engine On/Off Algorithm Comparison

Comparison of Engine Control Algorithms with Optimal Torque Control

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

Fuel Economy, mpgd

Nu

mb

er

of

En

gin

e S

tart

s o

n t

he

FU

DS

C

yc

le (

Ho

t)

Improving Engine Control

Rules Based Engine Control Algorithms

Optimal Engine Control Algorithms


Battery State-of-Charge in a PHEV

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Time (hr)

SO

C (

%)

Charge Depletion Mode

Charge Sustained

Rest Regular Charge Mode

Rest


LiIon Testing at SCE (capacity)

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Total Cycle #

Cap

acit

y (

Ah

)

C/1 Capacity Test C/3 Capacity Test EOL @ C/1 EOL @ C/3

First four data points not considered in the extrapolation

LiIon capacity is looking good. There is some degradation, but it is within bounds and linear.


LiIon Testing at SCE (power)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Total Cycle #

Peak P

ow

er

- P

ack L

evel (k

W)

60% DOD 70% DOD 80% DOD EOL @ 60% DOD EOL @ 70% DOD EOL @ 80% DOD

First four data points not considered in the extrapolation

LiIon power is also degrading, but within acceptable limits.


The Future of the Electric Sector Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario Definition

High CO2 Medium CO2 Low CO2

Cost of CO2 Emissions Allowances

Low Moderate High

Power Plant Retirements Slower Normal Faster

New Generation Technologies

Unavailable:Coal with CCSNew NuclearNew Biomass

Normal Technology

Availability and Performance

Available:Retrofit of CCS to

existing IGCC and PC plants

Lower Performance:

SCPC, CCNG, GT, Wind, and Solar

Higher Performance:Solar

Annual Electricity Demand Growth

1.56% per year on average


2010 - 2025: 0.45% 2025 - 2050: None

SCPC – Supercritical Pulverized Coal CCNG – Combined Cycle Natural GasGT – Gas Turbine (natural gas) CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage

Key Parameters• Value of CO2

emissions allowances

• Plant capacity retirement and expansion

• Technology availability, cost and performance

• Electricity demand• PHEV bounding

scenarios of 20%, 62%, and 80% new vehicle market share by 2050


Power Plant-Specific PHEV Emissions in 2010PHEV 20 – 12,000 Annual Miles

Coal Natural Gas Non-EmittingGeneration


Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increase with Liquid Fossil-Fuel Alternatives to Oil

Source: Farrell, A. E. and Brandt, Adam R. (2006). Risks of the oil transition. Environmental Research Letters, 2006.


Electric Sector Simulation Results (2050)PHEV 10, 20, & 40 – 12,000 Annual Miles


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gre

enho

use

Gas

Em

issi

ons

Redu

ction

s (m

illio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

Low PHEV Share Medium PHEV Share High PHEV Share

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Electricity grid evolves over time

• Nationwide fleet takes time to renew itself or “turn over”

• Impact would be low in early years, but could be very high in future

• A potential 400-500 million metric ton annual reduction in GHG emissions Annual Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

From PHEV Adoption


Overall CO2e Results

• All nine scenarios resulted in CO2e reductions from PHEV adoption• Every region of the country will see reductions• In the future, PHEVs charged from new coal (highest emitter)

w/o CCS roughly equivalent to HEV, superior to CV– There is unlikely to be a future electric scenario where PHEVs

do not return CO2e benefit

2050 Annual CO2e Reduction

(million metric tons)

Electric Sector CO2 Intensity

High Medium Low

PHEV Fleet Penetration

Low 163 177 193

Medium 394 468 478

High 474 517 612


Impacts to EnergyElectricity and Petroleum

• Moderate electricitydemand growth

• Capacity expansion 19 to 72 GW by 2050 nationwide (1.2 – 4.6%)

• 3-4 million barrels per day inoil savings (Medium PHEV Case, 2050) 0.0

1.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050An

nual

Elec

tric

Sect

or En

ergy

(m

illio

n GW

h)

Low PHEV Med PHEV High PHEV No PHEVs

Electricity Demand: Medium CO2 Case


U.S. Power Plant Emissions Trends

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

• Power plant emissions of SO2 and NOx will continue to decrease due to tighter federal regulatory limits (caps) on emissions

• Other local and national regulations further constrain power plantemissions

• Air quality is determined by emissions from all sources undergoing chemical reactions within the atmosphere


Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to PHEVs

Power Plant Emissions• Emissions capped under law

(SO2, NOx, Hg) are essentially unchanged

• Primary PM emissions increase (defined by a performance standard)

Vehicle Emissions• NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all

decrease• Significant NOx, VOC

reductions at vehicle tailpipe• Reduction in refinery and

related emissions


PHEVs Improve Overall Air QualityReduced Formation of Ozone

• Air quality model simulates atmospheric chemistry and transport

• Lower NOx and VOC emissions results in less ozone formation particularly in urban areas

Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb)PHEV Case – Base Case


PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Formation of Secondary PM2.5

• PM2.5 includes both direct emissions and secondary PM formed in the atmosphere

• PHEVs reduce motor vehicle emissions of VOC and NOx.

• VOCs emissions from power plants are not significant

• Total annual SO2 and NOx from power plants capped by federal law

• The net result of PHEVs is a notable decrease in the formation of secondary PM2.5

Change in Daily PM2.5 Design Value (µg m-3)PHEV Case – Base Case


PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury


The Future of the Electric Sector Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario Definition

High CO2 Medium CO2 Low CO2

Cost of CO2 Emissions Allowances

Low Moderate High

Power Plant Retirements Slower Normal Faster

New Generation Technologies

Unavailable:Coal with CCSNew NuclearNew Biomass

Normal Technology

Availability and Performance

Available:Retrofit of CCS to

existing IGCC and PC plants

Lower Performance:

SCPC, CCNG, GT, Wind, and Solar

Higher Performance:Solar

Annual Electricity Demand Growth



2010 - 2025: 0.45% 2025 - 2050: None

SCPC – Supercritical Pulverized Coal CCNG – Combined Cycle Natural GasGT – Gas Turbine (natural gas) CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage

Key Parameters• Value of CO2

emissions allowances

• Plant capacity retirement and expansion

• Technology availability, cost and performance

• Electricity demand

Electricity as a Fuel (for Transportation)

APSenergyMarch 2nd, 2008

Dr. Mark DuvallElectric Power Research Institute


Overview – Electric Utility Perspective

• Long-held consensus view of the value of electrifying transportation– Financial– Environmental– Energy Security

• Industry is incredibly diverse– Number of companies and organizations– Financial and operating models– External requirements

• Electric sector undergoing fundamental change– Environmental and sustainability– New technology adoption


Plug-In Hybrid Value Proposition for the Electric Utility Industry

• Electricity as a transportation fuel• PHEVs as energy storage• Demand response• Energy efficiency• Integration of renewables• Load shaping• Improved asset utilization• Improved system efficiency• Lower cost of stationary energy

storage

• PHEVs synergistic with Smart Grid• Emissions reductions • CO2 reductions or credits• Environmental Image• Customer satisfaction• Local economic development• Improve reliability• Improve customer rate structure

We need to understand the many components


What is the Smart Grid?Will PHEVs Participate in the Smart Grid

• Smart Grid is the interaction of power systems and information technology

• Enables greater information flow, superior management of system for reliability, stability, cost, etc.

• Empowers ratepayers to manage energy and costs

• Standardized communication between vehicles and the grid critical to enabling this link. ?


The Electric System of the Future Efficient Use of Energy

• Provide information and tools to install infrastructure now• Develop designs and migration strategies for “ideal” future

EfficientBuildingSystems

UtilityCommunications

DynamicSystemsControl

DataManagement

DistributionOperations

DistributedGeneration& Storage

Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

ControlInterface

AdvancedMetering

Consumer Portal& Building EMS

Internet Renewables

PV


Electric Load Duration Curve

Source: California Independent System Operator CorporationSource: California Independent System Operator Corporation

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500

MW

Hours per YearHours per Year

Last 25% of capacity needed less than 10% of

the time

Last 5% (2,500 MW) needed less than 50 hours

per year


Integrating Renewables

•Source – Pacific Gas & Electric


Energy StorageTransportation – Electric Sector Synergies

•Energy storage is a disruptive technology for the electric industry

•Cost-effective energy storage would benefit all areas of the energy value chain: generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use

•Key applications: firming large penetration of intermittent renewables, grid support, end-use load shifting, etc.

•Current energy storage systems are only marginally cost competitive. Costs need to come down by factor of 2-5 times.

•Need innovation and standardization as well as policy recognition.


PHEV Interface to Infrastructure

•General consensus that first step is charging-only functionality– Intelligent charging is key to minimizing customer and utility

costs, customer satisfaction•Cooperation on standards currently ongoing

– Infrastructure Working Council– Utility participation in SAE committees

•Understanding tradeoffs and capabilities between numerous communications options

•V2G and V2H (home) are out there—not yet clear consensus on value and feasibility


Technologies for New Generation in 2010-2015

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh

Wind@29% CF

Nuclear

PC

IGCC

Biomass

NGCC@$6


Technologies for New Generation in 2020-2025

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh

Nuclear

Wind@40%CF

Biomass

IGCC w/cap

NGCC@$6

PC w/cap

Solar (CSP)


Summary

•Electricity is a clean, abundant, low-carbon, non-petroleum based transportation fuel

•Infrastructure standards are a critical•Numerous elements to the value proposition that must be

clearly understood•Information flow between vehicle and utiliity—on some level—

is critical to maximizing value•Energy storage also a disruptive technology to electric sector

– Lack of installed manufacturing•National demonstrations are important, as soon as feasible

plug-in hybrid electric vehicles apsenergy march 2 nd, 2008 dr. mark duvall electric power research...

Documents

electric energy

electric motors

mile optimal0

used100 mile trip

trip100 mile trip

mile cs optimal0

mpgdnumber of engine

vehicle fuel economy