plugging in to natural gas portland, oregon january 25 · new application of existing drilling...
TRANSCRIPT
Plugging In To Natural GasPlugging In To Natural GasPortland, Oregon ‐ January 25
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255West Linn, OR 97068
(503) 344 6637(503) 344-6637www.nwga.org
NWGA Members:NWGA Members:Avista Corporation
Cascade Natural Gas Co.
F ti BC EFortisBC Energy
Intermountain Gas Co.
NW Natural
Puget Sound Energy
El Paso Ruby Pipeline
Spectra Energy Transmission
TransCanada GTN System
Williams NW Pipeline
Shale Gas: What Is It?
New Application of Existing Drilling TechsH i t l Di ti l D illi H d li F t iHorizontal Directional Drilling + Hydraulic Fracturing Horizontal Drilling:
First in 1929; really took off in 90s Average well site just 30% of First in 1929; really took off in 90s. Average well site just 30% of the size of its 70s counterpart.
Accesses 60 times more subsurface areaF ll i t t l f Fewer wells recovering greater reserves create less surface disturbance and generate less waste.
Hydraulic fracturing: More than 60 years old. More than 1,000,000 wells safely fracked.
Conventional vs Horizontal DrillingConventional vs. Horizontal Drilling
Traditional Wells
Horizontal Drilling
Smaller footprint, greater access
Traditional Wells Horizontal Drilling
I ith H d li F t iIssues with Hydraulic FracturingDrinking WaterDrinking Water
Key is effectively sealing (casing) the well bore(casing) the well bore
Well construction subject to state/local oversightto state/local oversight
Reputation is only as good as the weakest player…as the weakest player…
Issues with Hydraulic FracturingIssues with Hydraulic Fracturing
W UWater Use
P d d W
Issues with Hydraulic Fracturing
Produced Water Handled differently at different shale plays; even at different wells within a play. Recycling (e.g. Talisman): In Marcellus, about 80% comes back as produced water; in BC it’s only 20% back as produced water; in BC, it s only 20%.
When no longer useable: water is treated and disposed of
Disposal:Disposal:
Reinjection (regulated under the federal SDWA)
Surface impoundments (regulated by state statutes)
Treatment and disposal (regulated by the federal CWA)
Proven US Natural Gas Reserves (source: US EIA)300
250
300
200
Tcf
100
150
50
01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US Natural Gas Production ForecastUS Natural Gas Production Forecast30
(source: EIA AEO 2012)
25
15
20
Tcf
ProjectionsProjections
10
15Tc
5
0
US Sh l G P d tiUS Shale Gas Production (source: Navigant Consulting)18
14
16
10
12
eet p
er day
6
8
illion Cub
ic Fe
4
6B
0
2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011est
Productivity Dramatically Improved1st Quarter 20071st Quarter 2008
80 930
Productivity Dramatically Improved Southwest EnergyFayetteville Shale
+341%
3rd Quarter 2010 80,930y
142%
Source: Southwestern Energy Financials
2,4394,503
+114%+142%
+8%33
+83%
1,0062,1042011
-45%$2.8
$2.6
+8%
18
33
18,36011
Time To Drill Wells Per Yr Average 30 Day Ave. Init Prod Drill & (Days) Per Rig Lateral Length
(Feet)Prod Rate
(Mcf/d)Additions
Per Rig Per Yr(Mcf/d)
CompleteCosts ($MM)
Price EffectPrice Effect$14
(Source: EIA Monthly NatGas Report; EIA Short Term Energy Outlook; NYMEX)
$11
$12
$13
U
$
$8
$9
$10
illion BTU
$4
$5
$6
$7
US$ per M
i
EIA Gas Forecast (01/10/12 STEO)
Henry Hub Spot Price
$1
$2
$3
$4U
NYMEX Gas (01/23/12)
Henry Hub Spot: $2.25 on 01/23/12
$0
Jan‐20
08
Apr‐200
8
Jul‐20
08
Oct‐200
8
Jan‐20
09
Apr‐200
9
Jul‐20
09
Oct‐200
9
Jan‐20
10
Apr‐2010
Jul‐20
10
Oct‐2010
Jan‐20
11
Apr‐2011
Jul‐20
11
Oct‐2011
Jan‐20
12
Apr‐2012
Jul‐20
12
Oct‐2012
Jan‐20
13
Apr‐2013
Jul‐20
13
Oct‐2013
Jan‐20
14
Apr‐2014
Jul‐20
14
Oct‐2014
Jan‐20
15
Apr‐2015
Jul‐20
15
Oct‐2015
Recent Gas Demand
1,000
PNW Gas Deliveries (source: US EIA, StatCan)Residential Commercial Industrial Generation Power Consumption
800
900
500
600
700
Dth
300
400
500
Mill
ion
D
100
200
01996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Base Case Forecast Growth: 0 9% per yearBase Case Forecast Growth: 0.9% per year
280
300
240
260
200
220
on D
th
160
180
200
Mill
io
120
140
160
Industrial Residential Generation Commercial Hi Gen
100
120
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Demand CompositionDemand Composition1996 2020-21
Power3%
1996 2020-21
Res26%
Ind51%
Comm20%
AWild Card: GenerationA Wild Card: Generation
Northwest Power Conservation Council 6th Power Plan
M k & P li D i G i B ildMarket & Policy Drives Generation BuildsPacific Northwest Generating Additions & Retirements (Capability)
1000
1200
1400
ity (M
Wa)
Pacific Northwest Generating Additions & Retirements (Capability)
Wind
Solar
600
800
Cap
abili
Petroleum
Natural gas
Hydro
0
200
400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Geothermal
Coal
Biomass
‐2002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
October, 2011
Phasing out existing ResourcesPhasing out existing Resources
Phasing in new variable resourcesPhasing in new variable resources
2009 Energy By Source009 e gy y Sou ce
18,000
2009 Capability 2009 Actual
14,000
16,000
88%
10,000
12,000
MWa
6,000
8,000
74%
0
2,000
4,000 42%
72% 79%0
Hydro Coal Nat Gas Nuke Wind
October, 2011Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
Peak Capacity I‐5 Corridorp yI-5 Total Firm Peak Day Supply/Demand Balance
Low Base High Pipeline Underground Storage Peak LNG
5
6
4
h/da
y
2
3
Mill
ion
Dth
1
02011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Year (Nov-Oct)
Capacity ProjectsPipelines• Southern Crossing Expansion
Kitimat LNG
• Southern Crossing Expansion• Palomar• Sunstone• Blue Bridge (reconfigured)Blue Bridge (reconfigured)• Ruby• Pacific Connector• Pacific Trail• Oregon LNGLNG Terminals
Kitimat LNG (export) Oregon LNG Bradwood Landing LNG
Bradwood LandingOregon LNGJordan Cove LNG
Storage FacilitiesJordan Cove LNG
24
Storage FacilitiesMistJackson Prairie
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255West Linn, OR 97068
(503) 344 6637(503) 344-6637www.nwga.org
NWGA Members:NWGA Members:Avista Corporation
Cascade Natural Gas Co.
F ti BC EFortisBC Energy
Intermountain Gas Co.
NW Natural
Puget Sound Energy
El Paso Ruby Pipeline
Spectra Energy Transmission
TransCanada GTN System
Williams NW Pipeline