(plumber) summary and ongoing work · the pals land surface model benchmarking evaluaon project...
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ThePALSLandsUrfaceModelBenchmarkingEvalua<onpRoject
(PLUMBER)
Summaryandongoingwork
GabAbramowitzUNSWSydney&ARCCSS
Mar<nBest,NedHaughton,MartynClark,AnnaUkkola,AndyPitman,DaniOr+otherPLUMBERcoauthors:H.Johnson,G.Balsamo,E.Blyth,ABoone,P.
Dirmeyer,J.Dong,M.Ek,Z.Guo,V.Haverd,B.vandenHurk,H.Kim,R.Koster,S.Kumar,G.Nearing,T.Oki,B.Pak,C.Peters-Liddard,A.Pitman,J.Polcher,J.
Santanello,L.Stevens,P.Viterbo,N.Vuichard,…
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Expandedexample:ThePALSLandsUrfaceModelBenchmarkingEvalua<onpRoject(PLUMBER)
• 20Fluxtowersites;latentandsensibleheat,• 4metrics:bias,correla<on,SD,normalisedmeanerror• 9LSMs,15LSMversions• Benchmarks:two‘physical’–PMandManabebucket;3empirical
Best et al, 2015
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ThethreeempiricalbenchmarksinPLUMBER
• All3empiricalmodelsrelatemetforcingandaflux
• Trainedwithdatafromsitesotherthanthetes<ngsite(i.e.outofsample)
• TheyareeachcreatedforLE,H:o “1lin”:linearregressionoffluxagainstdownwardshortwave(SW)
o “2lin”:asabovebutagainstSWandsurfaceairtemperature(T)
o “3km27”:non-linearregression–27-nodek-meansclustering+linearregressionagainstSW,Tandrela<vehumidityateachnode
• Allareinstantaneousresponsestometvariableswithnoknowledgeofvegeta<ontype,soiltype,soilmoistureortemperature,Cpools.
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PLUMBERresults
Ver<calaxisistherankofeachLSM(black)againstthe5benchmarks,averagedover:• 20Fluxtowersites–9IGBPvegeta<ontypes;• 4metrics:bias,correla<on,SD,normalisedmeanerror
• Onaverage,LSMsoutperformPenman-MonteithandManabebucketimplementa<ons• Onaverage,LSMssensibleheatpredic<onisworsethananout-of-samplelinear
regressionagainstdownwardSWradia<on• Forallfluxes,modelsarecomfortablybeatenbyout-of-sampleregressionagainst
Swdown,TairandRelHum
Best et al, 2015, J Hydromet.
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• Lackoffluxtowerenergyconserva<onadvantagingempiricalmodels?
• Timescale–daily,monthly,seasonalratherthanper<mestepperformance?
• Timeofday–diurnalbiasesinfluxtowerfavouringempiricalmodels?
• PoorLSMini<alisa<on?
• Areranksnotrepresenta<veofmetricvalues?
• Biasedbymetricchoice?
• Biasedbysitechoice?
PLUMBERresults–methodology?
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PLUMBERresults–why?Notenergyconserva<on.
• Constraineachempiricalmodeltohavethesamesumof(latent+sensible)heatfluxastheLSMatevery<mestep
– Eachempiricalmodeltheneffec<velyhasthesameRnetandgroundheatfluxastheLSMit’sbeingcomparedto–andconservesenergy.
• ResultsaremixedbuttheregressionagainstSWdown,TairandRelHums<llcomesoutontop,especiallyforsensibleheatflux.
Haughton et al, 2016
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PLUMBERresults–sharedmodelissues?
Haughton et al, 2016
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PLUMBERresults–sharedmodelissues?
Qh error, binned by (RelHum, SWdown,)
LSMs
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PLUMBERresults–sharedmodelissues?
Qh error, binned by (Swdown, Tair)
LSMs
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Canwebuildabemerempiricalmodel?
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MartynClark:PLUMBERmodelswithinaBudykoframework
• TheBudykoframeworkexamineshowthedrynessindex(PET/P)affectstheevapora<vefrac<on(ET/P).
• Thesta<s<calmodelstendtobelowerthantheBudykocurveforthewemersitesandhigherthantheBuykocurvesforthedriersites.
• Atdriersitesthesta<s<calmodelscanhaveETgreaterthanP(i.e.,anevapora<vefrac<ongreaterthan1).
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• Approach– RMSEacrossthe20fluxnetsites
– Impactofthesmallsamplesizeischaracterizedbyresamplingthesites(withreplacement)1000<mes
• Results– Mostofthelandmodels
actuallyoutperformthesta<s<calmodels.
– TheBudykocurveprovidesbemerpredic<onsthanmostofthelandmodels,sugges<ngthatthelandmodelsareincapableofpredic<ngdeparturesfromtheBudykocurve.
• TheconclusionsofPLUMBERs<llhold,withasimplemodel(Budyko)outperformingmostlandmodels.
MartynClark:PLUMBERmodelswithinaBudykoframework
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Dry-downeventsatPLUMBERsites(AnnaUkkola)
Ukkola et al, in press, ERL
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Evapora<vedroughtatPLUMBERsites
Ukkola et al, in press, ERL
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OngoingworkaroundPLUMBER
• NedHaughton(UNSWSydney,+Gab)–howgoodcanempiricalmodelsbe?– Con<nuingtolookforanuber-modelusingallmetvariables,fluxhistory,markovchain
approachetc– Buildinconserva<on?
• MartynClark(UCAR)–inves<ga<ngPLUMBERwithSUMMAmodellingarchitecture
• Mar<nBesthasmen<onedwan<ngtousePLUMBERdataforsomekindoffrequencydomainanalysis
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PLUMBERresults–<mescale?
Haughton et al, 2016
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PLUMBERresults–<meofday?
Haughton et al, 2016
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PLUMBERresults–ini<alisa<on?"
Haughton et al, 2016
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PLUMBERresults–ranksvsmetricvalues?"
Haughton et al, J Hydromet, in review
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PLUMBERresults–metric?
Haughton et al, 2016
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PLUMBERresults–sites?
Haughton et al, J Hydromet, in review