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Prashant Maniar November 02, 2012 POWER STRUGGLE ACTIONABLE MEASURES FOR INCREASED ACCESS TO POWER Presented at: Rubber National Conference 2012

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Page 1: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

Prashant Maniar November 02, 2012

POWER STRUGGLE ACTIONABLE MEASURES FOR INCREASED ACCESS TO POWER

Presented at:Rubber National Conference 2012

Page 2: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Topics CoveredEnergy Demand & Consumption

Power Generation Status: Nationwide, fuel sources

Power Pricing: Nation and region wise

Actionable Measures: 5 point program

Solar Power: Overview & economics

Wind Power: Overview & economics

Rubber Recycling: Overview & value chain

Clustering: Concept & Approach

Energy Efficiency: Tips & recommendations

Summary

Page 3: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Per Capita Energy Consumption

þ 40 year CAGR = 4%

þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7%

þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

Our consumption of energy & the rate of consumption are both increasing … but per capita consumption is still very low hence growth is expected to increase

further between 5% to 7.5% per annum

Page 4: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Power Generation by Fuel SourceCoal

Hydro

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Diesel

Abundant, cheapest Polluting

Abundant, cheap Environmental IssuesProject delays

Clean, low COOGovt support

High Capex

Cleaner than coal Affordable

Visibility into availability

Clean, lower cost High capex, safety issues

SubsidizedSuitable for backup

Polluting Total Generation Capacity 207 GW

Page 5: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Power Generation StatusGeneration & Generation Growth Increasing …

But so are shortfalls …

Page 6: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Energy Utilization

Page 7: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Are Power Plants Generating @ Full Capacity?

Fuel shortages are one key reason for reducing PLF

Page 8: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

% of Generated Energy Reaching Customers

Transmission & Distribution losses are reducing …But even today on average 18% generated electricity is lost in the

grid.

Page 9: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Regional Demand vs Availability Scenario

Page 10: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Industrial Customers are Net Purchasers of Power

Industrial Consumers Have an Opportunity to Transform from being just buyers to self sufficiency

Page 11: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

National Price of Electricity Traded in FY12

Page 12: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Regional Prices of Traded Power

Southern Region facing high power prices &

price volatility

Page 13: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Latest News …

Page 14: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Aspects to Factor into Industrial Power Planning …¨ Investment into power generation will continue to increase

¨ Due to increased consumption, power shortages will also continue to increase

¨ Consider power price escalation at ~5% annually

¨ Power price volatility will impact short term power cost

¨ Use of fossil fuels for power generation, or backup, harm the environment

Page 15: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Actionable Measures – 5 point program

Energizing Rubber Industry

Access Reliable Power

Optimize Power Pricing

Reduce Power

Wastage

Transform Waste to Resource

Leverage Industry Synergy

Page 16: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Solar Energy – Overview

Page 17: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Solar Power EconomicsLocation Map for Ideal Solar

Power Generation Power Plant Economics

Size 1 MW+

Capex ₹ 7.5 cr – ₹ 9 cr / MW

Return 15 – 20%

Benefits Acc Dep or preferential tarriff, REC

Rooftop Solar Economics

Size 50 KW+

Capex ₹ 75 – 100 / W

Return 15 – 20%

Benefits 30% MNRE subsidy, Depreciation

Industrial rooftops in India can generate ~7 GW of solar power

Page 18: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Wind Energy – Overview

Page 19: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Wind Power EconomicsLocation Map for Ideal Wind

Power Generation Power Plant Economics

Size 100 MW+

Capex ₹ 4.5 cr – ₹ 6.5 cr / MW

Return 15 – 20%

Benefits Acc Dep or GBI, REC

Small Wind Economics

Size 10 KW+

Capex ₹ 100 - 125 / W

Return TBD

Benefits MNRE Subsidy

Wind Power Capacity

Tamil Nadu 4900 MW

Maharashtra 2077 MW

Gujarat 1863 MW

Rajasthan 1088 MW

Karnataka 1472 MW

Madhya Pradesh 230 MW

India’s wind potential is ~65 GW

Page 20: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Rubber Recycling Value Chain

Collection & Transportation

Rubber Sources

Reclaimed Rubber

Metals

Bio-fuels

Revenue StreamsMaterial Recovery Approaches

Manual sortingShredding

Pan method

CapexNeeded Low to moderate

Competitive Landscape Emerging

Core Competency

Feedstock AcquisitionByproduct sales

TyresIndustrial Waste

Carbon black

DigestorThermalPyrolysis

Page 21: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Leveraging Industry Synergies - ClusteringRu

bber

Indu

stry

C1

C2

C3

Purchase Power Open Markets

Renewable Energy Services Company (RESCO)

Setup captive power plant of 1MW+ capacity

Utilize factory / office rooftops

Pool wasted output to generate fuel / electricity

Commission energy audit

Factory operations optimization

Building energy consumption optimization

Page 22: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Energy Efficiency – Tips & Recommendations“A watt saved is way more than a watt generated”

Compounding- Pre-heating & insulation- Fans for warm air stratification- Bale spacing- Heat recovery

Extrusion / Motors & Drives- Variable speed drives- High efficiency motors

Moulding / Compressed Air- Cure temperature / time control- Reduce leakage

Building Efficiency- Lighting

- HVAC & Insulation- Backup power (inverter, genset)

Energy Efficient Operations

Page 23: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

Summary of Actionable Measures

Access to reliable power

Optimize Power Pricing

Reduce power wastage

Waste to energy

Leverage synergies

Solar Wind Recycling Clustering Energy Efficiency

þ þ þ

þ þ þ

þ þ

þþ

þ

Page 24: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

References¨ Central Electricity Authority

¨ Central Statistics Office

¨ Central Electricity Regulatory Commission

¨ ICRA Limited

¨ Tangram Technology

¨ Ministry of New & Renewable Energy

¨ Encito Advisors Research

¨ DNA & Economic Times Newspapers

Page 25: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

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© Encito Advisors 2012Rubber National Conference - 2012

About Encito Advisors

Encito Advisors

Services

Focus

Expertise

Location

Strategic & Financial Advisory Services

Mergers & Acquisitions, Private Equity Syndication, Joint Ventures, and Strategic Advisory

Renewable Energy, Environment & Enabling Technologies

Domain knowledge, international reach, process innovation

Mumbai, India

Page 26: PM-RNC 02Nov12 - Final...3 © Encito Advisors 2012 Rubber National Conference - 2012 Per Capita Energy Consumption þ 40 year CAGR = 4% þ 10 year CAGR = 4.7% þ 3 year CAGR = 4.9%

Address 201 Triton, Greenfield Estates | A. B. Nair Road, Juhu | Mumbai 400049

Email [email protected] | Phone +91 99872 63480


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