pms pitch - string of pearls.pdf

STRING OF PEARLS (Deep Value III) PORTFOLIO

Discretionary Portfolio Management Services

Portfolio Management Services

For Private Circulation Only

Content

2

Investment Approach Investment Objective and Horizon Investment Process Portfolio Composition Key Investment Themes Market and Valuation Wealth Creation : Case Studies Wealth Creation : @ Centrum PMS Performance Of PMS Schemes PMS Product Suite Centrum Team Annexure

Private and Confidential

He who would search for pearls must dive below - John Dryden

This is our philosophy with stock selection We deep dive into companies and their

operational working before we make an investment in the stock.

While there are many Oysters in the Ocean but only a few will yield a Pearl

We believe that our bottom-up approach would help us find those Oysters which will

have Pearls Good companies within the overall universe of stocks.

To build a concentrated portfolio of select stocks with a focus to create significant value

over the long term by identifying and investing in deep value stocks some of which may

be relatively under researched small and mid caps.

Pearls from Oysters are not made in a day

The fund will largely adopt a Buy and Hold strategy. It will hold the stocks till the

expected return from the potential opportunity is not fully realized. At the same time,

the objective is not to stay invested in a stock idea through out the life-time of the

fund. As the market typically delivers a non-linear return profile, the fund manager may

opportunistically seek to re-allocate money across stock ideas dynamically. We may also

exit our investment for loss or insignificant gain if there is any adverse development in

our view.

Investment Approach

3 Private and Confidential

Seek superior returns by identifying companies which are :

Deep value, across sectors and segments; companies that are likely to deliver superior

performance over time. Valuation of companies based on various parameters like

price/cash flow, ROE, price/book, sum-of-part valuation, dividend yield,

price/earnings, replacement cost, etc.

Emerging themes offering strong growth outlook and value unlocking potential.

A stock which is bought at a sufficient discount to intrinsic value gives potential for

wealth creation after allowing for a margin of safety to reduce risk.

Market Cap definition: Large-cap stock > Rs. 20,000 Crore, Mid-cap stock - Rs 1000 Crore

to 20,000 Crore, Small-cap stock - Rs 100 Crore to 1000 Crore.

Target Investment Criterion Investment of Rs. One Crore per account.

Investment Objective and Horizon


Investment Process

1) IDEA GENERATION:

Quarterly Results

Macro Trends

Policy Changes

Corporate Actions

Broker Reports

News

Stock Screens

Historical Price movement 2) BASIC CHECK:

Stock suitability

Market Cap

Liquidity

Management Background

Key return ratios

3) DETAILED FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Financial Modeling

Management meeting

Valuation

Detailed peer analysis

Detailed Team Discussion

4) PORTFOLIO ACTION:

Compliance check

Stock weight

Sector weight

Index v/v non index

Sector view

Decision on sector weight

Decision stock weight

Final decision: Buy/Sell/Hold

5) PORFOLIO MONITORING & REVIEW:

Performance

Attribution analysis

Back to step 1

Private and Confidential 5

Portfolio will have exposure to around 15 stocks. This is a reasonable concentration thus

lending a higher risk to the portfolio. At the same time, the potential to earn good return

would also be reasonably higher.

Portfolio will predominantly be invested in mid-cap and small-cap companies which may

be illiquid at the time of investment.

Client Suitability

Suitable for equity investors with high risk appetite seeking relatively superior returns

and with longer term investment horizon.

Portfolio Composition


Cyclical

Recovery- Infra,

Logistics

Banking and Financial Services

Auto and Auto Ancillary

Exporters

Government intent to push through reforms seen from recent ordinances

Decline in yields would reduce interest burden for

companies

Key Investment Themes


Recovery in Credit Growth

Interest rate reduction

Improvement in asset quality

Indian currency is expected to remain range bound and

this would help the exporters

The global growth is expected to rebound in CY15

which should give further

fillip to growth

Indian auto ancillary have gained prominence among

global OEMs

This segment could be major beneficiary of Make In India campaign

Market and Valuation


GDP Growth and Market

9

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum

The sharp market rise between 2007 and 2010 coincided with higher economic growth. Within that mid caps outperformed.

Similarly, the period of sharp correction coincided with reduced economic growth and within that mid caps underperformed.


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BSE-MID CAP BSE SENSEX GDP % Change (YoY), RHS

Midcap Returns: Pre & Post Elections

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Election Year Pre Election Post Election

3 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 18 Months 2 Year

SENSEX

1991 11.7% 36.3% 46.4% 177.9% 125.0% 79.9%

1996 33.2% -5.5% -11.2% 1.6% 12.3% 8.4%

1998 -2.0% 13.3% -13.9% -3.0% 17.1% 69.1%

1999 16.5% -0.4% 19.8% -2.3% -15.1% -31.5%

2004 0.8% -14.3% -2.2% 7.6% 26.6% 107.2%

2009 17.4% 30.2% 57.4% 60.7% 63.9% 77.1%

2014 10.4% 9.4% 16.9% ? ? ?

BSE MIDCAP

2004 2.9% -8.6% 4.8% 34.7% 62.3% 149.4%

2009 13.6% 44.8% 89.1% 104.2% 113.9% 109.6%

2014 16.5% 18.1% 31.9% ? ? ?

BSE SMALLCAP

2004 -1.7% -5.5% 21.7% 82.5% 138.3% 238.6%

2009 15.1% 40.6% 92.5% 129.5% 138.5% 124.2%

2014 18.8% 27.4% 43.7% ? ? ? Source: Bloomberg, Centrum


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Crude Oil Prices (1990-2000)

Global Economy 1990-2000 & its relevance today

The global economic environment today - dj vu...?

The FED had sharply reduced the interest rate by almost 500bps during the early part of 1990s

The Crude price had corrected by almost 50% from the high of USD40/bbl to almost USD20/bbl

Dollar was strengthening vis--vis the other currencies globally

Japan was showing deflationary environment which is more or less now being shown by the Eurozone

While these conditions on their own would look deflationary but they set up the market for rally which lasted almost a decade.


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Nifty (1990-1999)

Another bull run in the making?

Low Global Yields, range bound commodity prices were ripe conditions for an investment boom to happen

The investment led boom resulted in strong GDP recovery in the developed world Buoyed by the investment boom in the US economy the equity markets in the US entered a 10

year bull run which ended with the dot-com bust.

We believe that the global tailwinds are currently in favor of India with the commodity prices sharply corrected, global yields down and hence easy availability of investment and a

government which has strong focus on infrastructure growth and reforms.

The global conditions coupled with a decisive government could push India in to a sustainable bull run similar to the one witnessed in 1990-2000 in the US


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Midcap Index performance & Valuations

The 10 year data on BSE Midcap shows that while markets today have peaked since 2006-

07 levels, the Valuations havent reached their peak

Forward valuation, presently, for the BSE Midcap index is close to 19x* while it made a

peak of 24x* in 2007; (Bloomberg)

The current earnings would not be able to capture the expected growth in the next two

three years and hence we need to look at

forward valuations

Empirical evidence suggests that the market peaks out when the economic

fundamentals of the underlying economy

peak out. This was observed in 2007 and

then again when the economy revived in

2010

We believe that the economy has not reached its full potential and hence do

not expect that the equity indices have

topped out yet

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum, as of 31st December 2014; * in order to avoid any near term volatility in earnings the

forward P/E has been calculated based on the average earnings over the next two years.

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Reasonable Market Valuation

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Though Benchmark indices are at all time highs, market

valuation is in comfortable

zone.

Nifty forward P/E is currently at 15.5x (as of 31st

Jan 2015), just above the

long term average of close

to 14x and 23% below the

peak of 20x in Jan 2008.

Currently ~80.6% as compared to last 10 years average of

75% and peak of 146% in

CY2007.

Market Cap to GDP

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum, *Based on Government budgeted GDP estimate of FY2015E, (*As of 31st Jan, 2015)


Max; ; 20.15

Min; ; 7.45 7

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Wealth Creation : Case Studies



Stock Selection Increases Alpha

Returns Number of

firms

Annualized Returns

Greater than 15x 71 Ranged between 36% to 213%



Total 175/500 (35%) Ranged between 22% to 213%

Return analysis of BSE 500 during the period 2005-2014

Stock selection significantly improves alpha as is evident from the above statistic

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Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking, data from Jan 2005 to June 2014

146 firms out of current BSE 500 are not part of this analysis as they were added to BSE500 later or were listed post 2005


During the stagnant markets between December 2007 November 2010,when BSE 500 did not gain, there were success stories which created significant wealth -


Micro stories of success in stagnant times


Company Name Returns

LIC Housing Finance Ltd 193%

GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Ltd 238%

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd 236%

McLeod Russel India Ltd 242%

EID Parry India Ltd 248%

Castrol India Ltd 260%

Unichem Laboratories Ltd 272%

Cadila Healthcare Ltd 350%

Lupin Ltd 396%

Coromandel International Ltd 413%

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Amara Raja Batteries (68 times in 10 years)

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum, as of 31st December 2014

Examples Of Wealth Creation In Market

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Page Industries (29 times in 7 Years)

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Sundaram Finance (15 times in 10 years)

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Eclerx (7 times in 7 years)


Wealth Creation Stories : @ Centrum PMS


a. What did we see?

The company is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of stainless steel tubes with dominant 40% market share. It is a key beneficiary of revival in the economic growth especially in the power, oil & gas and water segments. Strong track record of financial performance and dividend payment history.

b. Our Expectations

The company was witnessing improved order book flow and was building further capacity in the stainless steel segment. We expected the state and central government to increase orders which would help the company post robust numbers going forward. The reduction in debt owing to high free cash flow generation were other triggers

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 88% from our average purchase price in a time frame of seven months.

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum, price on base of 100

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Wealth Creation Stories



a. What did we see?

The company is a south based housing finance NBFC which caters to the salaried and non-salaried segment. It has created a niche in the non-salaried segment with 55% of the loan book from this segment. The company has a track record of low write-offs and high margins.

b. Our Expectations

We had expected that the company would be able to grow its loan book on a consistent basis owing to lesser competition in the non-salaried segment. Moreover, geographical diversification was another growth driver. Further, we had expected that the growth in the housing sector would be key emphasis of any government.

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 115% from our average purchase price in a time frame of one year.

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a. What did we see?

Among the largest microfinance company in the country. It was one of the few listed plays in the microfinance space.

Microfinance industry had gone thru a tough phase owing to changes in regulations and high asset quality pressures; although the prevailing prices factored the decline in earnings.

b. Our Expectations

The company was on recovery path as was visible from the quarterly numbers. With the revival in the return ratios and better regulations in place the re-rating possibility was very high. We believed that the company would continue to benefit from increased penetration of organized microfinance in the rural areas.

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 118% from our average purchase price in a time frame of ten months.

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a. What did we see?

The company is a leading player in the power T&D space. The company had managed it balance sheet and earnings quite well in a tough macroeconomic environment when many EPC players had gone out of business. Healthy, order book, efficient working capital management made the company one of the best plays in the power T&D space.

b. Our Expectations

The company exhibited strong revival in earnings and order flow showed a sharp uptrend.

The quarterly numbers had bottomed out and the y-o-y numbers started showing good upward trend.

The companys calibrated approach in the BOOT projects also was working well.

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 145% from our average purchase price in a time frame of seven months.


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a. What did we see?

The company is a leading player in the power T&D space with strong MNC parentage. The Company is market leader in the power transmission space with close to 19% market share. It is also the market leader in the 765kV equipment with close to 60% market share.

b. Our Expectations

Increased order book owing to higher Transmission and Distribution spends to drive revenue growth from FY16E.

With increased emphasis on Grid connectivity and higher capex in the HVDC and GIS segments the company stands to benefit.

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 9% from our average purchase price in a time frame of one and half month.

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a. What did we see?

The company is worlds largest manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals especially ATBS and IBB with a market share of 40% and 60% respectively.

Consistent track record of growth and profitability. Industry leading return ratios, margins and cash flow generation profile.

b. Our Expectations

Indian specialty chemical sector to benefit from revival in end user industry and higher share in global markets vis--vis China.

Consistent ramp up in capacity to aid further growth.

Further diversification into newer products to be other growth driver..

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 26% from our average purchase price in a time frame of five months.

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a. What did we see?

Company commands more than 50% market share in the two-wheeler transmission industry in India. It Company caters to 75%-80% of Bajaj Autos & HMSIs transmission requirement (chains and sprockets) and ~30% of Hero Motocorp and TVS Motors need.

b. Our Expectations

The company is a key play on the growth of the 2-wheeler industry.

Increased penetration in the 4-wheeler segment and pick-up in exports to be other growth drivers.

Acquisitions done by the company expected to be EPS accretive in the future.

c. Performance

As of 31st January 2015, the stock is up by 17% from our average purchase price in a time frame of five months.

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PMS Performance


PMS Performance

Portfolio performance is the median performance of clients in the respective scheme & Net of charges;

Performance as of 31st January 2015

M-month


WEALTH CREATOR

DEEP VALUE - I

6-M 12-M 24-M 30-M

BSE 500 15.4% 51.3% 48.0% 71.8%

Deep Value 40.1% 98.3% 85.8% 121.8%

Index / PMS

Models

Absolute Return

6-M 12-M 24-M 30-M

BSE 500 15.4% 51.3% 48.0% 71.8%

Wealth Creator 41.8% 86.8% 68.0% 82.5%

Index / PMS

Models

Absolute Return

PMS Performance

Portfolio performance is the median performance of clients in the respective scheme & Net of charges;

Performance as of 31st January 2015

M-month


DEEP VALUE - II

3-M 5-M

BSE 500 7.09% 12.38%

DV2 13.56% 28.68%

Index / PMS

Models

Absolute Return

PMS Product Suite


Centrum Discretionary Mandates

Growth

Portfolio

Wealth

Creator

Portfolio

Glocal

Portfolio

Deep Value

Portfolio I, II, III

Risk reward mapping of models

Return

Risk


Comparison of Models

PORTFOLIO OBJECTIVE STRATEGY SUITABILITY

GROWTH

PORTFOLIO

Seek to deliver capital

appreciation through

participation in large

cap stocks

Balanced portfolio with 70%-80% in large

cap stocks and remaining in mid & small

cap stocks Moderate risk appetite

with medium term

investment horizon (1

year) Invest in dominant players with strong

fundamentals and track record

WEALTH

CREATOR

PORTFOLIO

Seek to deliver long

term wealth creation

while meeting liquidity

needs

50-60% of portfolio invested in deep

value & mid cap stocks and remaining in

Large cap stocks High Risk appetite with

medium to long term

investment horizon (1 -

2 years) Bottom up & value stock picking strategy

identifying deep value stocks, emerging

themes, outperforming sectors


Comparison of Models

PORTFOLIO OBJECTIVE STRATEGY SUITABILITY

GLOCAL

PORTFOLIO

Seek to deliver capital

appreciation by investing in

companies benefitting

through local and global

recovery

Predominantly invest in sectors of Banking

& Financials and Export oriented

companies with strong fundamentals,

track record and without market cap bias

High Risk appetite

with medium to

long term

investment horizon

(> 2 years) Minimum 20% and maximum 60% exposure

across sectors. Only20% allocation to

opportunities across other sectors

DEEP

VALUE

MULTI-

BAGGER

PORTFOLIO

I, II, III

Seek to generate longer term

wealth creation by investing

in deep value stocks

including relatively unknown

small & mid-cap stocks

Predominantly invest in mid-cap and small

cap stocks which may be illiquid at time

of investment High Risk appetite

with longer term

investment horizon

(> 2 years)

Bottom up & value stock picking strategy

identifying deep value stocks,

outperforming sectors, emerging themes,

hidden gems and other macro themes for

major upsides


Centrum Team


Investment Team

35

Kunj Bansal

Executive Director & Chief Investment Officer

Key Personnel

Senior investment professional with over 2 decades of experience in

financial market

Has seen multiple cycles in the market and managed money across

different formats such as Mutual Funds, Offshore Funds and PMS

Started his career as a Research Analyst at Unit Trust of India (UTI)

which was Indias biggest mutual fund at that time

Subsequently, he worked with the biggest and best names in the

financial services industry such as Reliance, Kotak and Sanlam (a South

African group) managed money up to Rs 50 bn in these assignments

He writes for various magazines and newspapers and his valued opinion

is sought by various news/business channels. He has been a Speaker in

various seminars & conferences


Investment Team

Key Personnel

Ankit Agarwal Fund Manager 6

Ankit got his MBA from IIM Bangalore ,one of the premier B-schools in the world.

His most recent engagement has been with the wealth & investment management arm of Barclays where he was leading a part of the equity research team, instrumental in managing over USD 300mn in total equity assets under management.

He brings in diverse international experiences in the financial services industry having worked with Lehman Brothers, London and BNP Paribas, Hong Kong on their institutional trading desk and D.E.Shaw India, US based hedge fund.

He has a strong academic pedigree along with expertise in the Indian equity markets and works closely with the CIO in taking macro and micro calls for the funds investments.

Ankit frequently comes on various business channels and print media to give views on the markets.

Abhishek Anand Fund Manager

Abhishek has 10 years of experience with 8 years in institutional equity research covering multiple sectors such as Telecom, Media ,IT & Consumer.

He won the Starmine Top Analyst Award for 2011-12 (Rank 3rd for Information Technology sector) and 2012-13 (Rank 1st for Information Technology sector and 5th overall sector) by Thomson Reuters.

Abhishek has been quoted frequently on the Telecom sector in various financial dailies and appears on business channels to give his views on the Telecom sector.

His previous assignments were with institutional research division of SBI Capital Markets, Dun & Bradstreet & CMIE.

He is an MBA Finance from Mumbai University & PGDTFM from ICFAI University.


Rajnish Bahl- Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Over 25 years of experience in banking and financial services

Has been career banker with stints across Citibank, ANZ Grindlays, Standard Chartered Bank and

HSBC. Previously, Regional Head Distribution- HSBC MENA

Rank holding Chartered Accountant with Gold Medal in Auditing

S. Ganashyam- Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer

Over two decades of experience in setting up and running businesses across Wealth Management,

Private Banking and Institutional and Retail Equities.

Previously, Head of Wealth Management , HSBC India.

An MBA (University of Mumbai) and a CFA Charter holder from the CFA Institute, USA . He is also a

Certified Financial Planner (CFP).

Sandeep Nayak- Executive Director and CEO- Broking

20+ years of experience in Capital markets including Retail Broking and Private Client Services

Previously Founder member of Kotak Securities Online Broking-kotakstreet.com renamed

kotaksecurities.com and Head Private Client Group at Kotak Securities. Last assignment Head - Retail Broking and Wealth Management at HSBC Investdirect

B.Com (Gold medalist Bangalore University), ACA, Grad CWA with All India First in both CA and ICWA

Private Wealth Core Team


Annexure


Risk Factors

Securities investments are subject to market risks and there can be no assurance or guarantee that the objectives will be achieved.

Investment in securities, the value of the portfolio under management may go up or down depending upon various factors and forces affecting the capital markets.

Investors in PMS are not being offered any guaranteed /assured returns.

Each portfolio will be exposed to various risks depending on the investment objective, investment strategy and the asset allocation.

The name of the products do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns.

Each client is advised to consult his/her financial advisors before availing of PMS.


Disclaimer

Email - [email protected]

Centrum Broking Limited (CBL) is part of the Centrum group. It provides Portfolio Management Services and

is registered with SEBI under Registration No. INP 000004383. Centrum Broking Limited is also into Stock

broking and is a member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX and Depository participant of CDSL. Our research

professionals provide important inputs into the Group's Investment Banking and other business selection

processes. One of our group companies, Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of

securities. As a group Centrum has Investment Banking, Advisory and other business relationships with a

significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group.

None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any

particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for

any specific investor. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and

other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and

unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially

from those expressed or implied in such statements.

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