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The Allure of Energy Alternatives

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Where does energy go?

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Geopolitics of oil

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Comparing consumption levels

  Subsistence: Mexico

Social: Portugal

Luxury: United States

GNP per capita (1997)

$3,700 $11,010 $29,080

Municipal waste pc not available 350 kg 720 kg

Energy use pc (oil equiv.)

1,525 kg 1,928 kg 8,051 kg

GDP output/kg oil equiv.

$2.10 $5.60 $3.40

CO2 emissions pc (1996)

3.7 metric tons4.7 metric

tons19.7 metric tons

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Automobility & the automotive complex

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Heat, light, comfort

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“Our way of life”

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Energy alternatives should

• Reduce vulnerability, increase flexibility• Be reasonably cost-effective & efficient• Not introduce major lifestyle disruptions• Not generate intractable waste problems• Be environmentally-friendly or “green”• Not introduce intractable social problems

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Two general classes of alternatives

Technological

Energy productionEnergy distribution

Energy consumption

Waste disposal

Behavioral

Economic incentives

ConservationLifestyle changesCognitive changes

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Carbon dioxide sequestration

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Nuclear energy

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Limits to uranium?

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Fusion

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Very complex design

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Slotted into existing power grids

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Solar energy is plentiful but diffuse, and must be collected and concentrated

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For heating of water or

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Solar electricity

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Production is growing, while cost is dropping

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Wind is variable and diffuse and energy must be captured

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Wind resources are widely available

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Costs are decreasing and capacity is growing

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Hydrogen?

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Shell Oil’s projection

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Fossil fuel phaseout projection

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Mtoe

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2020 2050 2100

SolarHydroBiomassNuclearN. GasCoalOil

Technological progress projection

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Conservation/renewable projection