poland – a beacon in central europeinfo.hktdc.com/lifestyleexpowarsaw/poland/may2010.pdf ·...
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Poland – A Beacon in Central Europe
28 April 2010
Louis ChanEconomistHKTDC Research
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Why Poland?
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Poland was the only European country with positive GDP growth in 2009
Source: Eurostat, PAIiIZ
EU: - 4.2%; Euro area: - 4.1%
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Consistently outperforming the EU and Euro area
2.53.2 2.9
0.7
-4.2
2.21.7
3.0 2.8
-4.1
1.5
5.3
3.6
6.26.8
5.0
1.72.6
3.2
2.01.6
0.7
0.6 0.7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010forecast
2011forecast
%
EU27 Euro Zone Poland
Average GDP growth 2004-09• 4.8% in Poland• 1.2% in the EU• 1.0% in the Euro area
Source: Eurostat, Central Statistical Office (GUS) 4
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Poland is one of the largest FDI recipients in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Source: National Bank of Poland
EU85.6%
Othercountries
14.4%
Geographical sources of FDI inflow
10.2
8.3
15.717.2
10.0
7.7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
• At the end of 2008, the accumulated value of FDI in Poland was over 116 bn EUR
• Almost 1/5 of foreign investment was from The Netherlands
• USA was the largest non-European investor in Poland
Annual FDI inflow in EUR bn
• Manufacturing activities including especially automotive, electronics, machinery and aircraft among the most attractive sectors for foreign companies in Poland
• During the last couple of years – the developmentsof financial intermediation, real estate and IT enabled modern services have been dynamic
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Poland – No.1 location for FDI in CEE
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The largest CEE country in the EU
Source: PAIiIZ
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Since 1st of May 2004 Poland is a member of the EU. Main advantages:- access to the single market
of almost 500 mn potential consumers,
- free movement of goods,- the Polish law harmonized
with the EU regulations.
A gateway to the 500-million-strong European market
On 21 December 2007 Poland joined the Schengen zone: a territory with no checks atinternal borders formed in the 25 member states.
Schengen Zone
In years 2007-2013 Poland will be the largest beneficiary of European Funds available among others to any company incorporated in Poland.
Distribution of the EU Funds(in EUR 100 mn)
Source: PAIiIZ8
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The country is open for trade
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
82 8896 99
118 125
145162
178
204
140 144
23 25
0
50
100
150
200
250US$ billion
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 J-F 2010
Exports Imports
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Rising interests in sourcing outside the EU
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Growing interest in sourcing from China
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Other Favourable Factors
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41%
15%
25%
4%
1%
1%
13%
Infrastructure and EnvironmentHuman CapitalInnovative EconomyDevelopment of Eastern PolandProgrammes of the European Territorial Cooperation ObjectiveTechnical AssistanceRegional Operational Programmes
Biggest beneficiary of the EU structural fundsover the period 2007-2013
EU Funds of more than €67 bn + Polish contribution of over €20 bn
Source: PAIiIZ
13
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A top-up of €633 million from EU Funds for the years 2011-2013
…“The Inter-institutional Agreement on the 2007-2013 financial framework between European Parliament, Council and Commission foresaw automatic adjustments for countries whose GDP had variedby more than 5% cumulatively over 2007-2009 compared to the forecasts when drawing up the framework (in 2005).
Economic growth in Poland during this period reached 10.8% more than expected in the EC prognosis.”
(An excerpt from the European Commission’s communiqué dated 19 April, 2010)
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Host of the Euro 2012 with Ukraine
Source: STC, Poland and Ukraine
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Factors Favouring Hong Kong Companies
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Lack of local production of quality consumer goods at competitive prices
- More focused on heavy industries such as power generation, metallurgy, mining, chemicals, etc
- Produce some consumer items, mainly domestic electrical appliances like LCD TVs, vacuum cleaners and refrigerators
- Most competitive manufacturers are usually those producing for export under processing agreements
- Production of other light consumer items falls short of ever-growing demand
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Growing brand awareness
Source: PMR Publications18
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An ideal regional distribution centre
- Situated at at the crossroads between East and West Europe
- Adopted EU’s common external trade policy and measures
- Lower operational and labour costs
- 14 Special Economic Zones (SEZs), providing tax relief as high as 65% for SMEs
Examples of Chinese enterprises in SEZs- Digital View and TPV Technology Ltd- Dong Yun- Suzhou Victory Precision Manufacture Co- Min Hoong Development Co- Sino Frontier Properties Ltd Source: PAIiIZ
1000 km radius250 mn people
2000 km radius550 mn people
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Polish Consumer Profile & Retail Landscape
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Rising consumerism with higher income
Average Per-capita Monthly Expenditure
Source: GUS
25.6%
2.6%
5.5%18.9%
5.5%
4.8%
10.1%
7.9%1.2% 17.9%
food and non-alcoholic beverages
alcoholic beverages, tobacco
clothing and footwear
housing, water, electricity, gas and otherfuelsfurnishings, household equipment androutine house maintenancehealth
transport
recreation and culture
education
others
21
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Continued retail consolidation
The number of shops reduced to 386,000 in 2008 from 449,000 by end-2002
Source: GUS
Number of Retail Shops in Poland, 2008
179
167
45
15
7
9
8
8
6
7
170
116
46
13
8
9
8
8
8
9
0 200
petrol stations and others
with foodstuffs, fruit and vegetables, meat, fish
with textiles & clothing
with motor vehicles
with cosmetics & toilet goods
with footwear & leather items
with furniture & lighting appliances
with consumer electronics & household appliances
with books & stationery
with baker's products & alcoholic beverages
000 units
End-2008End-2002
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Organised retail on the rise
8% 7%
9%
7%
32%
4%
8%
9%9%
7%
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
Discount stores
Food/drink/tobacco stores
Health and beauty stores
Clothing and footwear stores
Home and gardening stores
Electronics and appliance stores
Leisure and personal goods stores
others
Retail Sales in Poland
Remark: Percentages shown above are calculated according to retail sales.Source: Euromonitor
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Growing foreign participation
Hypermarket/Supermarket/Discount Stores
Ahold (incl. Hypemova) NetherlandsAuchan FranceCarrefour FranceE. Leclerc FranceGéant FranceJeronimo Martins PortugalMetro GermanyRewe Germany Tesco (incl. Savia) UK
Hypermarket/Supermarket/Discount Stores
Ahold (incl. Hypemova) NetherlandsAuchan FranceCarrefour FranceE. Leclerc FranceGéant FranceJeronimo Martins PortugalMetro GermanyRewe Germany Tesco (incl. Savia) UK
Electricals/Mobile Phone
EKO Contel GreeceMedia-Markt (Metro) Germany
Electricals/Mobile Phone
EKO Contel GreeceMedia-Markt (Metro) Germany
Footwear
Deichmann GermanyEcco DenmarkNG2 Poland
Footwear
Deichmann GermanyEcco DenmarkNG2 Poland
DIY/Furniture
Castorama (Kingfisher) UK Ikea Sweden Obi GermanyOffice Depot USPraktiker (Metro) Germany
DIY/Furniture
Castorama (Kingfisher) UK Ikea Sweden Obi GermanyOffice Depot USPraktiker (Metro) Germany
Clothing & Textiles
Arcadia UKBenetton Italy Calzedonia (incl. Intimissimi) ItalyCortefiel (incl. Springfield) SpainJack Pot DenmarkLPP PolandMango SpainMorgan FranceMothercare UKOriginal Levi’s Stores USOrsay GermanyTroll PolandZara Spain
Clothing & Textiles
Arcadia UKBenetton Italy Calzedonia (incl. Intimissimi) ItalyCortefiel (incl. Springfield) SpainJack Pot DenmarkLPP PolandMango SpainMorgan FranceMothercare UKOriginal Levi’s Stores USOrsay GermanyTroll PolandZara Spain
Source: Euromonitor
Department/Variety Store
Bhs UKGaleria Centrum NetherlandsMarks & Spencer UK
Department/Variety Store
Bhs UKGaleria Centrum NetherlandsMarks & Spencer UK
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Performance of Hong Kong Exports
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Hong Kong’s exports of selected products to Poland
+71%3+13 %14-10%13Watches and clocks
-1%6-21 %20+71%26Jewellery
+10%9-22 %47+20%60Toys and games
-30%3-52 %14+31%29Travel goods and handbags
+22%2-13 %5-40%6Footwear
-54%11-23 %54+6%69Clothing
-45%17-30 %73+7%104Fashion products
+14%7+10 %27+160%25Household electrical appliances
-1%20-21 %95+25%121Gifts and premium*
+61%18-21 %46+13%59IT equipment
-5%8-56 %39+49%87AV equipment
-4%19-29 %67+96%95Telecom equipment
+37%87-33 %260+16%387Electronics^
+13%158-27%533+19%726Total exports
GrowthValueGrowthValueGrowthValue
Jan-Mar 201020092008(US$ million)
^ Includes finished electronic products and parts and components of electronic products* Includes items covered in other categoriesSource: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR Government
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Potential Opportunities
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Consumer electronics & household electrical appliances
Retail Sales of Consumer Electronics and Household Electrical Appliances
Source: Euromonitor, GUS
3.6 4.7 5.98.1
10.6 8.81.81.9
2.22.7
3.42.8
0
5
10
15
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US
$ bi
llion
Consumer electronics Household electrical appliances
+159% or a CAGR of 27%
28
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Gifts and premium
- Huge demand for quality and innovative items
- Boosted by the branding trend and customer loyalty programmes
- Euro 2012 will instigate a buying spree for souvenirs, festive and related items
- Becoming more willing to pay for exquisite gifts and premium which mix creativity and technology
- Some started to source branded promotional products from HK suppliers
- Most sought after items include: silverware, jewellery sets, battery-powered timepieces, camera cases, travelling bags, rucksacks, shopping bags, brass and leather stationery
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Fashion products
Source: Euromonitor
5.66.6
7.39.2
12.1
9.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US
$ bi
llion
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Polish clothing and footwear market
+116% or a CAGR of 21%
30
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Toys and games
175 199 215 263334
276
74110
170
231
327
281
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US
$ m
illio
n
Traditional toys and games Video gamesSource: Euromonitor
Retail Sales of Toys and Games in Poland
+165% or a CAGR of 28%
31
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Jewellery and timepieces
Source: GUS
Imports of Jewellery and Timepieces in Poland
339(+29%)
263(+46%)
180(+51%)
119(+75%)68
(+21%)
110(+18%)93
(+33%)70(+41%)50
(+49%)33(-34%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US
$ m
illio
n
Jewellery Watches and Clocks
32
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Risks and Challenges
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Domino effects of global recession
Unemployment rate in Poland
19.518.2
16.2
12.79.8
11.012.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 2010
%
Source: GUS
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Keys to Succeed
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Some recommendations
- Target Poland but not Poland alone- Explore Poland’s potential as a regional centre for distribution in Europe
- Get ready and strive for ODM and OBM orders- Get prepared with well-designed collections featuring decent designs and
branding to set out ODM and OBM businesses
- Never settle for inferior quality- Likely to trade down, but not a dumping place for unsold products
- Leverage on Poles’ good perception of Hong Kong- Quality control, third-party testing, professional services
- Win business by taking reasonable risks and increasing flexibility- E.g. giving credit or longer credit terms to creditworthy Polish buyers, plus
accommodating smaller orders
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Thank You