World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and waterWorking together in weather, climate and water

http://www wmo int

WMO

Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch

Climate and Water Department

Arctic Change 2008

9-12 December 2008

Quebec, QC, Canada

Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF):A mechanism for improved adaptation strategies and outcomes

Leslie Malone, Howard Cattle, Barry Goodison, Jaakko

Helminen, Kumar

Kolli, Holger Meinke, Vladimir Ryabinin, Eduard Sarukhanian, Francis Zwiers

The PolarCLIPS

People…so

far•

Brazil: Alberto Setzer, •

Canada: Barry Goodison, Francis Zwiers, •

Chile: Jorge Carrasco, •

Denmark: Jens Hesselbjerg

Christensen •

Finland: Jaakko

Helminen, •

Germany: Martin Werscheck, •

Hungary: Sandor

Szalai, •

Iceland: Thorsteinn

Thorsteinsson, •

India: N.T. Niyas, •

Netherlands: Holger Meinke, •

Norway: Inger

Hanssen-Bauer, Eirik

Forland, •

Russian

Federation: Elena Akentyeva, Vladimir Kattsov, Alexander Klepikov, Vladimir Kryzhov, Vasily

Smolanitsky, Alexander Zaitsev•

United Kingdom: Howard Cattle•

USA: Amy Holman, Henry Huntington•

AMAP: Lars-Otto Reiersen•

ESA: Einer-Arne Herland•

Secretariat: Kumar

Kolli, Leslie Malone, Vladimir Ryabinin, Eduard Sarukhanian

Overview

•

WMO and its

climate

activities

•

Regional

Climate

Outlook Forums

•

Extension of this

to polar regions

(PCOFs)

•

St Petersburg results

World Meteorological Organization

The UN System’s Authoritative Voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth's atmosphere, its interaction with the oceans, the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources.

• Established in 1950 as a UN Specialized Agency (1873, IMO)

• 188 Member states and territories

Understanding Processes

Observing & Monitoring the

Climate

Developing Response Options

Surface, upper-air and ocean networks, satellite observations

Adapting Strategies

Climate diagnostics, Climate modelling

Vulnerability assessment and socio-economic impacts

Climate Information and Applications

Water resources, health, energy, tourism and

agriculture, etc.

Predicting Climate

Seasonal to interannual prediction, climate change projections

Impact assessment, mitigation of greenhouse gases

Integrated framework of WMO’s climate activities

Often

not user-

friendly

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

• A key component of WMO CLIPS project activities• Pioneered in Africa, 1996, RCOF Concept spread

worldwide• Supported by WMO, NMHSs, research institutions,

regional and international orgs (e.g. World Bank)

• A COF is a ‘get-together’ – a meeting of climate experts and user groups in an open forum where all available information on current climate and predictions for the season ahead is reviewed, and discussed.

• There is often divergence between the information received from different sources. In a COF, common elements are highlighted, leading to greater confidence in those aspects.

• COFs build capacity – providers learn from each other, share experience, and receive technical training in techniques. Users learn about the products and their uncertainties, and how to interpret and apply the information.

• COFs provide a regular platform for interdisciplinary interaction, particularly at important changes of season.

• UNFCCC recognizes COFs as an effective adaptation tool.

RCOFs

Existing RCOFs worldwide

(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html)

Rapid

change is

affecting

traditional

way

of life, health

and safety; threatens

land-based, freshwater and marine species.

CLIPS in Polar Regions

There is

a need

for consistent, useful, operational

climate

information, products

and services for high

latitudes:

Industry

including

land and marine transportation, tourism, new fisheries, mining, oil

and gas

exploration and energy

production must consider

climate

variability

and change in planning and operations.

Problems that need climate input

• Community or airstrip relocation due to sea level rise, flooding, coastal erosion, or permafrost degradation

• Flood induced contamination of freshwater supply• Protection of species• Siting of energy development facilities (oil, gas)• Fire safety (ecosystems and human communities)• Safety of people engaged in traditional food-

gathering activitiesCourtesy Amy Holman

Context

• It is not easy to provide information and services to populations living and working in these challenging and remote environments.

• Technology and automation both help and hinder delivery of valued services:–

automated observations of the climate, semi-

automated production of forecasts, automated service delivery mechanisms do ensure that some

information flows to users BUT–

lack of provider-user interaction hinders uptake/use

• Environmental, economic, political and social conditions at high latitudes are changing rapidly….People, sectors, governments need climate information for decision-making*.

• There is a need to identify vulnerability and climate information requirements, to improve the flow of useful information for decision- making, and to facilitate effective use of this information through improved liaison with user groups.

Questions

*decisions will not wait until we have better obs, better predictions

Can we find a way to ensure they have high quality, useful products and services, reduce uncertainty, build resilience?

Can we identify opportunities for collaboration between NMHSs, northern organizations, partners and other stakeholders to do this?

What are the risks of inaction?

IPY 2007-2008

• Legacies are many:– New data, and observing and monitoring programmes– New research findings – better understanding of the climate

and environment– Improved political and international cooperation– An informed public– Probability of this momentum leading to even more research,

observations, understanding because of IPY, and the commitments made by governments to support the IPY

• The real challenge (David Carlson): to take what we have accomplished and put it to work, make it last.

• GCW, and PolarCLIPS are meant to contribute to this

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and waterWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO WCRP IPY Workshop on CLIPS in Polar Regions:

Climate product generation, user liaison and training

http://www.wmo.int

WMO

8-11 September 2008 St Petersburg, Russian Federation

Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch, Climate and Water Department

PolarCLIPS Workshop

• Agreement to continue to scope the PCOF concept – with care – to build a process that would be international, collaborative, practical and user focused, that would:– Raise capacity of science providers through training– Raise capacity of user groups to understand and use climate

products– Put IPY information and benefits to use – demonstrate benefits– Aim to become operational in due course– Benefit from further research advances (eg modeling)– Build on the IPY efforts that have opened new facilities, and the

community efforts to adopt a science focus– Provide a platform for interaction and feedback– Contribute to the proposed WMO Global Cryosphere Watch

(GCW)

• Exploit climate data – especially new IPY datasets• Measure the ECVs; Promote polar ‘supersites’• Correct precipitation datasets for known biases• Improve remote sensing of rainfall and snowfall• Promote free/open exchange of climate information• Conduct research into downscaling and improving

predictions – improve models for high latitude areas• Develop/share statistical tools (e.g. for extremes)• Provide climate monitoring products to users, with

information on interpretation and use

PolarCLIPS Workshop Recommendations (1)

• ID the climate vulnerability of users at high latitudes and needs for climate information to address these – surveys

• Improve interdisciplinary collaboration and user liaison• Develop new info and operational products for decision-

making• Develop the concept of PCOF as a viable operational

mechanism to facilitate user services and feedback• Publish PCOF concept in peer-reviewed journal• Build capacity, including technical training for providers

and joint efforts for providers and users together

PolarCLIPS Workshop Recommendations (2)

Benefits

Traditional knowledge face to face with modern science: Involving affected communities brings a wide array of benefits

Courtesy Henry Huntington

•Identification of new or improved information, products and services required by users

•Improved use of climate information in decision-making

•Improved two-way communication on climate-related issues

•

GCW liaison

•

Surveys

•

Arctic

Change 2008

•

The paper

•

Information brochures

•

WCC-3

•

…..

PolarCLIPS Next Steps

For more information, please contact:

Dr. R. K. KolliChief, World Climate Applications and

Services Division (WCAS)Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch

(CLPA)Climate and Water Department (CLW)World Meteorological Organization

Tel: +41.22.730.8377Fax: +41.22.730.8042Email: RKolli@wmo.int

Leslie MaloneClimate Prediction and Adaptation

Branch (CLPA)Climate and Water Department

(CLW)World Meteorological Organization

Tel: 41.22.730.8220Fax: 41.22.730.8042Email: LMalone@wmo.int

CLIPS in Polar Regions

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/polarclips.html

Thank youMerci

СпасибоGracias

شكرا 谢谢

Thank youThank youMerciMerci

СпасибоСпасибоGraciasGracias

شكرا شكرا 谢谢 谢谢