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TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE
TOWARDS A STANDARD METHOD TO APPRAISE CARBON
BALANCE OF AGRICULTURE PROJECTS/ POLICIES: THE EX-ACT TOOL
By FAO EX-ACT team(Bockel, Bernoux, Tinlot, Sutter, Gentien, Gorin)
World Bank, ARD days Washington 23 March 2011
Background
Why a new tool?
How it is structured?
Main output of the tool : carbon balance
Applications of the EX-ACT tool
FAO and climate smart agriculture
SUMMARY www.fao.org/tc/exact
BACKGROUND
Agricultureforestryland use
Threatened by climate change
Responsable for 1/3 of total GHG emissions
Huge potential to cost-effectivelymitigate
The main greenhouse gas emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC Volume 4 Chapter. 1
Introduction HWP=Harvested wood products).
Decrease sources
Increase sinks
3 accounted GHG : CO2, CH4, N20 Mitigation
BACKGROUND
70 % of agriculture mitigation potential In developping countries
CO2
rate of deforestation and forest degradation,
adoption of improved cropland management
practices (reduced tillage, integrated nutrient and
water management)
CH4, N2O
improved animal production and management of livestock
waste,
more efficient management of irrigation water on rice paddies,
improved nutrient management
Sequestering carbon
conservation farming practices, improved forest
management practices, afforestation and
reforestation, agro-forestry, improved grasslands
management, restoration of degraded land
Mitigation possible through changes in agricultural technologies and management practices
-1,2 t eq-CO2/ha/year-18,8 t eq-CO2/ha/year-42,7 t eq-CO2/ha/year
1 ha of avoided deforestation , from tropical rain forest to
degraded lands
1 ha plantation, degraded land to tropical rain
plantation
1 ha grasslands from severely degraded to improved
grasslands
-1,7 à -3,8 t eq-CO2/ha/year
1 ha from degraded land to annual crops
carbon appraisal 3+17 years
Increased carbon in soils
Climate smart agriculture
Decrease GHG emissions
Mitigation
Value to farmers, communities, society
More biomass, more residue, more production
More employment
Better land management
Adaptation
Agriculture production and
productivity
Climate change
Reduce povertyand food security
How low carbonoptions contributeto agriculture productivity and food security ?
Why having developed the tool ?
Lack of tools that would help project designers to integrate significant climate response activities in small holders agriculture development projects.
Lack of operational tools
Tools under UNFCCC/KP
Tool =
Flowchart +
Equations+
Default values
Why having developed the tool ?
Lack of tool screening the whole agricultural sector
Why having developed the tool ?
Need for an acceptable method which: measures C-balance impact within ex-ante appraisal, complements usual economic analysis, and fits within the time constraints of formulation process.
Simple
Practical
Cost effective
Upgradable overtime
Information that :-scientists can quantify/use, -farmers/project developers can understand/use
Up-scaling(Able to extrapolate to region, watershed and community basis)
Appraisal of agricultural project/programmes
Carbon balance with a reference scenario
International application
Regular up-dating
Easy to use and implement
Mitigation impacts of policies and value chains
Mitigation non integrated within project formulation
Lack of climate impact decision-making tools
Enriching usual economic analysis with a new
indicator
Adapting to project formulation contraints
Legitimity of a new tool
WHY A NEW TOOL ?
What the EX-ACT TOOL does?
Takes into account activities
that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks)
Deforestation, A-Re/forestation, forest degradation, Restoration of grasslands, livestock, cultivation of annual crops, cultivation of perennial crops, fertilization of crops, installation of building, installation of irrigation systems...
CO2, CH4, N2O
from and to different pools
above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil, litter and dead wood
EMISSIONS STOCKS
Positive result : There is more emissions
Negative result: There is less emissions
MITIGATION !
Carbon balance in t of eq-CO2
The carbon balance, for a specific project (or scenario of action) in comparison with a reference, should be considered as the net balance of all GHG emissions expressed in CO2 equivalent (sources and sinks) with the atmosphere interface and the net change
in C stocks (biomass, soil…).
Future without project
100 ha flooded rice
100 ha degraded pastures
100 animals
Future with project
100 ha improved irrig. rice
100 ha restored pastures
100 High product. animals
?
more or less GHG released
?
MAIN OUTPUT OF THE TOOL : CARBON BALANCE
HOW IT IS STRUCTURED ?
Project activities
(identification du changementd’utilisation des terres et des pratiques
prévues)
Project Description
Aggregation and carbon balance
Climate
Continent
Soil
Duration
DeforestationAfforestation and Reforestation
Non forest land use changeAnnual crops
Perennial cropsIrrigated rice GrasslandsLivestock
InputsOther investments
Matrix (Synthesis of land
use and land use changes)
-Describe vegetation/animals/inputs concerned
-Describe main management practices
-Area concerned
EXCEL File
-Start situation
-Future without project
-Future with project
Tier 1: IPCC coefficients
Tier 2 : ad-hoc
INPUTS
NEEDED
Structure of the EX-ACT tool
Logic behind :
Time (years)
Implementation phase
With project
Without project
Capitalization phase
Difference used to compute the final C balance in tons CO2 equivalent
Varia
ble
cons
ider
ed(h
a of
land
use
, num
ber o
f cat
tle h
eads
,…)
x0
x1
x2
3 different dynamic of change(adoption) of practice
Benefits of the project
Structure of the EX-ACT toolAb
solu
te C
hang
e(x
1-x 0
)
t0 t1
“Immediate” “Linear” “Exponential”
t0 t1 t0 t1Time (years)
Default optionin Tier 1
3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practice
MAIN KIND OF DATA/INFORMATION WE LOOK FOR
-Different areas of land uses and land use changes in ha
-Management practices (residue burning, improved agronomic practice, nutrient management, organic management, tillage management)
-Quantities of inputs used
-For livestock, evolution of herd
- Fuel consumption
- Investments in infrastructures
Activities foreseen… that may impact on mitigation (GHG reduction/releases)
What is the current situation ?
What would happen in the future if the project
is not implemented ?
What is expected in the future if the project is
implemented ?
China
Tanzania
Madagascar
IndiaMali Moldavia
Ethiopia
Brazil
Burkina Faso
Eritrea
Congo Congo RDC
RwandaSierra Leone
Uganda
Cameroon
Nigeria
WORLDWIDE EX-ACT APPLICATIONS
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Value chain
Rice in Madagascar
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Current annual emissions:12.9 Million tons of CO2eq
⇒4.8 kg of CO2eq per kg of paddy⇒7.2 kg of CO2eq per kg of rice
⇒Methane production of aquatic rice (67%)⇒Deforestation effect (29%)⇒Persistence of hilly S&B rice (tavy)
Rice production in Madagascar
Toward an Upgrading scenario for 2020
The upgraded scenario will allow to fix 5.6
million tons of CO2eq/year between
2003-2020
-Contuniouslyflooding ricemanagement
-Laissez aller policyletting S&B increase by 3.1%/year
-Switch of 300000 ha to intermitted flooding and non flooded preseason
- improved organicamendment
- Stop any increase of S&B rice
- Net increase of fertilizers used
=> 45% due to ↘CH4
(from continiously to intermitted flooding)
=> 54% linked with reduction of
deforestation due to tavy
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Forest management
Congo Brazzaville
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Main caracteristics: 22,5 Millions ha of forest, lowest deforestation rate within Congo basin (0.08% annual brut)Duration of carbon appraisal: 15 years
Millions of t eq-CO2 DeforestationAfforestation/ reforestation
Land usechange
Perennial crops
Carbonbalance
BAU Reference scenario +364,8 -2,8 -11,8 +350
REDD 1 scenario +290,9 -19 -0,2 -12,4 +259,3
•Only Current deforest trend • Reforestation and
afforestation (9000 ha/yr) • 50% residue/biomass burning
•LUC from Set aside lands and degraded forest => monoculture
•Current deforest. trend + Addit. Deforest. fromoil and mining
•Public effort to reforest(1404ha/yr)
•LUC from tropical forest to agricultural lands
Unit 15 years annualCarbon balance Million t of eq-CO2 91.0 6.1Value (1t=3 US$ ) million $ 273.0 18.2Value (1t=10 US$) million $ 910.0 60.7
Policy support to strengthen capacities of local institutions in the REDD planning process
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Food security and agriculture
intensification
Tanzania
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Objective: Increase agricultural production and productivityTargets: 2.5 millions farmersMeans: improve rice and maize crops ( vouchers : improved seeds, inputs), stop residue burning, adoption of improved practises with better agronomic practisesand better nutrient managementDuration of carbon balance appraisal: 7+13 years
T Eq-CO2 Maize Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs Total
Carbon balance (CB) -12.616.561 235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -5.821.604
CB.ha-1 -5,5
CB.an-1.ha-1 -0,28
T Eq-CO2 Maize Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs Total
Carbon blance (CB) -8.353.397 235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -1.558.440
CB.ha-1 -1,5
CB.an-1.ha-1 -0,07
conventionnel
improved 1: agronomic+nutrient+no tillage+noburningImproved 2 : nutrient+no burning
Improved 3: nutrient
SCENARIO
2
SCENARIO
1
Accelerated Food Security Project in the United Republic of Tanzania
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Watershed
Madagascar
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Objective: establish the basis for viable irrigated agriculture and natural resources management in four rural ‘growth poles’Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 10+10 years
T Eq-CO2
Reducingdeforestation
Forestation AgroforestryAnnualcrops
Ricecrops
Restoringgrasslands
InputsLand use
change
Otherinvestments
Total
Carbonbalance
-628907 -989278 -183225 -277879 -48612 -146396 91148 -188444 1463 -2370130
Carbon Balance.ha-1 -21.0
Carbon Balance.an-1.ha-1 -1.05
Carbon price constantprice
US$/ton
Total publicvalue
million US$
Project NPV
million US$
InternalIRR
Without value 9.1 14.7%
valued at 3.5 8.3 11.6 15.8%
2010 → 2020 from 2 to 20 38.7 17.8 17.7%
2010 → 2020 from 2 to 10 20.4 13.9 16.5%
at low carbon price of US$ 3.5 Annual Equiv
Carbon value per ha US$ 3.7
Carbon value per farmer US$ 14
Equiv Carbon financial rent per village US$ 1400
Equiv carbon financial rent per watershed US$ 104 000
Potential employment generation in the area of Paid Environmental Services (PES) through regular carbon annualmonetary inflows
Irrigation and watershed management programme in Madagascar
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Sustainable Agriculture i
Uganda
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Objective: increase agricultural productivity and the household incomes of participating smallholder farmersDuration of carbon appraisal: 5+15 years
•Initial project scenario
Land expansion(trhough deforestation, land use change on set aside and grass lands)
No land expansion= 50`% of mitigation
potential of the project
No expansionExpansion of
agroforestry and perennials
= 12 % of mitigation potential of the project
Burning residueNo burning residueImproved practises
= 35 % of mitigation potential of the project
Agriculture Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) in Uganda
Scenario 1
Millions oft eq-CO2
DeforestationAfforestation/reforestation
Land use change
Annual crops
Perennial crops
Final Carbon balance
Scenario 1 -64.0 -1.4 -12.9 -45.1 -6.6 -129.4
Scenario 2 -48.4 -1.4 -9.9 -26.3 -6.6 -92.2
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Agriculture Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) in Uganda
•More pragmatic scenario (agriculture expansion is not stopped but reduced)
stopped only reduced
without deforestation
WITH PROJECT SITUATION
50% on deforested lands
Annual crop expansion
Tree plantation
Manureapplication
yes no
Objective: increase agricultural productivity and the household incomes of participating smallholder farmersDuration of carbon appraisal: 5+15 years
Millions oft eq-CO2
DeforestationAfforestation/reforestation
Land use change
Annual crops
Perennial crops
Final Carbon balance
Scenario 1 -64.0 -1.4 -12.9 -45.1 -6.6 -129.4
Scenario 2 -48.4 -1.4 -9.9 -26.3 -6.6 -92.2
Scenario 2
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
On-going work for World Bank
Democratic Republic of Congo
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Objective: to increase agricultural productivity and improve marketing Area covered: 166 000 haDuration of carbon appraisal: 5+15 years
t eq-CO2Final Carbon
balanceMillions T
CB per ha per year
T
Scenario 1 -17.5 5.3
Agriculture Rehabilitation and Recovery Support project (ARRS) in DRC
EX-ACT modulest of eq-CO2
over 20 years% of total GHG
mitigated% of total
GHG emitted
Deforestation Non Use ChangeAnnual Crops
-15709328.25-579606.4983-2213268.12
85312
total GHG mitigated -18502202.87 100
Rice LivestockOther Investment
110979.31636151.8575550158.4
16579
total GHG emitted 697289.5735 100Carbon balance -17804913.29
Dominated by impact of avoided deforestation (85%)
One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Watershed
Food security and agriculture
intensification
Value chain appraisal
Forest management policies
www.fao.org/tc/tcs/exact
FAO’s support to climate smart agriculture: key points
Integrating climate change concerns into agriculture and food security policies and investment programmes
Build synergies between sustainable agriculture intensification, SLM , mitigation and adaptation
Mainstream appraisal of GHG impact - carbon balance in projects, programmes and policies
Addressing adaptation and mitigation as an ongoing social learning processes
sustained internalization of agriculture mitigation practices in farming systems
Towards a FAO strategy scaling up low carbon green agriculture?
Approach and Standard
mainstreaming
• Design and promotion of climate smart agriculture practices• Promote multi functionality of sustainable green agriculture (multi-
objective approach, externality/ co benefit promotion) • Carbon balance to promote and use of carbon standards in planning and
investment appraisal
Scaling upCountry- level
implementation
• Greater consistency between agriculture, food security and climate change policy making
• Appraisal of country AFOLU Low carbon policy options• country institutional, policy and technical support to develop
agriculture carbon networks / platforms
Global Donors and Partners
Mobilization in scaling up
• Partnership with donors (World Bank, IFAD, AfDB, GTZ, AFD,EU ...) in scaling up new carbon standards in agriculture investment planning
• Channeling fast track agriculture carbon funds
THANK YOU
ARD Days 22-23 March 2011
www.fao.org/tc/exactEX-ACT team: Bockel, Bernoux, Tinlot, Sutter, Gentien, Gorin
To answer questions …
24/06/2010
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24/06/2010
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24/06/2010
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Project Summary Area (Initial state in ha)Name Forest/Plantation 35000
Annual 12400 Implementat 10Continent Africa Cropland Perennial 0 Capitalisatio 10
Rice 21800 Total 20Climate Tropical Moist Grassland 40000
Other Lan Degraded 28750Dominante Soil THAC Soils Other 0 Total Area 137950
N2O CH4 Per phase of the projectBiomass Soil Implement. Capital. Total Implement. Capital.
-628907 this is a sink -357207 -271700 0 0 -447773 -181133 -31445 -44777 -18113-989278 this is a sink -719813 -269466 0 0 -344334 -644944 -49464 -34433 -64494-188444 this is a sink -8800 -179644 0 0 -68681 -119763 -9422 -6868 -11976
-277879 this is a sink 0 -161220 -32290 -84370 -92626 -185253 -13894 -9263 -18525-183225 this is a sink -167475 -15750 0 0 -57225 -126000 -9161 -5723 -12600-48612 this is a sink 0 0 0 -48612 -16204 -32408 -2431 -1620 -3241-146396 this is a sink 0 -146396 0 0 -48799 -97598 -7320 -4880 -9760
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 091148 this is a source 28358 --- 25980 65168 4557 2598 65171463 this is a source --- --- 1463 0 73 146 0
Final Balance -2370130 It is a sink -1189041 -1044176 -3931 -132981 -1048200 -1321930 -118506 -104820 -132193
Result per ha -17.2 -8.6 -7.6 0.0 -1.0 -7.6 -9.6 -0.9 -0.8 -1.0
Components of the Project
Other GHG EmissionsLivestock
Inputs
Deforestation Afforestation and ReforestationOther Land Use ChangeAgriculture
Project Investment
Annual CropsAgroforestry/Perennial Crops
Rice Grassland
1463
All GHG in tCO2eqBalance (Project - Baseline)
Duration of theProject (years)
Mean per year
CO2 (other)---
62790
CO2
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
Deforestation Afforestation andReforestation
Other Land UseChange
Annual Crops Agroforestry/PerennialCrops
Rice Grassland Livestock Inputs Project Investment
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