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© Z/Yen Group 2010 © Z/Yen Group 2013 Z/Yen Group Limited 90 Basinghall Street London EC2V 5AY tel: +44 (20) 7562-9562 “Zest for Enlightenment” Policy Adapting to Increased Competition for Natural Resources 14 November 2013 Professor Michael Mainelli www.zyen.com

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  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Z/Yen Group Limited

    90 Basinghall Street

    London EC2V 5AY

    tel: +44 (20) 7562-9562

    “Zest for Enlightenment”

    Policy Adapting to Increased Competition for

    Natural Resources 14 November 2013

    Professor Michael Mainelli

    www.zyen.com

    http://www.zyen.com/

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

    [Source: http://www.worldmapper.org/display.php?selected=119]

    I(450%)=P(150%)xA↓(300%)xT↓(?%)

    A↑ T↑(?%)

    © Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Unburnable Carbon

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Surfeit of Wicked Problems

    [source: Dr Tim Morgan, Dangerous Exponentials, Tullett Prebon (June 2010)]

    “The biggest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to

    understand the exponential function.” Professor Al Bartlett, University of Colorado

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    2,000,000 Years of Commerce and We

    Still Don’t Know The Price Of Fish

    [Photo courtesy of Nicolas Mainelli]

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    London

    Accord

    Financial

    Centre

    Futures

    Meta-

    Commerce

    Eternal

    Coin

    About

    ‘When would we know our

    financial system is

    working?’

    Objectives:

    Expand Frontiers

    Change Systems

    Deliver Services

    Build Communities

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Learning Curves Matter

    [Source: IRENA (2012), “Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series”; IEA (2011), “Solar Energy Perspectives”

    http://www.sbc.slb.com/SBCInstitute/Publications/SolarPhotovoltaic.aspx

    http://www.sbc.slb.com/SBCInstitute/Publications/SolarPhotovoltaic.aspx

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Economic trends:

    ♦ low energy costs correlate with growth and economic success

    ♦ energy security leans towards in-country production and a

    mixed portfolio

    ♦ greater policy stability on fossil fuels favours fossil fuel

    investment

    ♦ low carbon may be desirable, but difficult to sell

    ♦ Europe risks being high-cost in a low-cost energy world in

    2020

    Technological trends:

    ♦ local renewable generation will get better, but unlikely to be

    sufficient

    ♦ solar learning curve compelling, nuclear not so

    ♦ solar, and wind, and the market, would benefit from working

    storage technology

    Trends

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    ♦ Do we believe in open data and open, competitive

    markets?

    ♦ How should we ‘internalise’ sustainability into economic

    measurement and reporting?

    ♦ Should Europe focus on large storage projects,

    comparable to the US National Strategic Oil Reserve, that

    might put a base price on daytime renewable and

    perhaps encourage exports of sunshine from south to

    north? Is the ‘grid’ for distribution (historic reason), or

    energy trading and emergency supply?

    ♦ How do we ‘prove’ stability of policy?

    Policy Implications

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Open Data

    Finance, Biodiversity And Managed Ecosystems: Where's The Data?

    2011

    Natural Environment Research Council, Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Network and Z/Yen Group

    Finance And Water: Where's The Data?

    2010

    Natural Environment Research Council, Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Network and Z/Yen Group

    Finance And Forestry: Where's The Data?

    2010

    Natural Environment Research Council, Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Network and Z/Yen Group

    http://www.zyen.com/component/content/article/38-research-and-presentations/728-finance-biodiversity-and-managed-ecosystems-wheres-the-data.htmlhttp://www.zyen.com/component/content/article/38-research-and-presentations/728-finance-biodiversity-and-managed-ecosystems-wheres-the-data.htmlhttp://www.zyen.com/component/content/article.html?id=697http://www.zyen.com/component/content/article.html?id=697http://www.zyen.com/component/content/article.html?id=689http://www.zyen.com/component/content/article.html?id=689

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Confidence Accounting – Scientific Measurement

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    Policy Performance Bonds

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    ♦ Open data

    ♦ Open, competitive markets – focus on

    storage, not carbon capture &

    sequestration?

    ♦ Confidence accounting for sustainability

    issues

    ♦ Policy performance bonds

    Policy Thoughts

  • © Z/Yen Group 2010

    © Z/Yen Group

    2013

    When Would We Know

    Our Commerce Is Working?

    ♦ When we’re equitable - space?

    ♦ When we’re sustainable - time?

    ♦ When we’re happy?


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