Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

Kevin SchaeferTed SchuurDave McGuire

Breakout Report: The Permafrost

Carbon Feedback and Global Policy

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

Impact on Climate Change Treaty

• 2°C warming target• AR5 Projections don’t

include permafrost emissions

• Temperatures higher with feedback

• Emissions targets may be too high

• Risk overshooting 2°C warming target

Temperature Projections 4th

Assessment Report

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

Report: The Permafrost Carbon Feedback and Global Policy

• UNEP report: Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost– http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf

• Recommendations:1) IPCC assessment2) Nationalize CALM and TSP3) Adaptation Plans

• Objective: How to implement recommendations?

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

IPCC Special Assessment

• Understand the IPCC process• Look at past assessments– IPCC special assessments– SWIPA, ACIA, etc.

• Create outline• Identify science gaps• Write synthesis papers

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

IPCC Special Assessment

• Hone a simple message• Contact people and groups– International Arctic Science Commission, etc.– Government representatives to IPCC

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

Permafrost Monitoring Networks

• List of US/Canadian agencies– Environment Canada, USGS, etc.

• Need standards and Protocols• Need International cooperation• International Permafrost Association will

discuss• Coordinate with networks that monitor

carbon– NEON, Ameriflux, flask network, etc.

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

Open Question to NACP

• Can existing/planned networks detect large emissions from thawing permafrost?