Policy Monitoring and the CPIA in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Approach of the Africa Assistance Strategy (ASAF)

Levels of Monitoring in ASAF

Three levels: 1) IDA’s own programs and delivery3) Country Outcomes (MDGs and derivatives)

In between:2) Policies and Implementation in a Partnership

Model of Assistance:The effectiveness of policies and country institutions: CPIA, and other assessments

CPIA Objective and Schedule

Objective: Assess the quality of country policy and institutional

framework, guide IDA allocationAnnual schedule Feb/March: Discussion and finalization of the

Questionnaire April/May: Benchmarking (4 AFR countries, 19

Bankwide) June: Work on country ratings July-August: Discussions with center and networks

and finalization of ratings

CPIA Process

Coordinated and managed by country economists with inputs from CDs, sector specialists and country teams

Interactive discussions in AFR Final vetting by PREM and sector specialists to

ensure regional consistency Inputs from OPCS to ensure Bank wide

consistency

IDA Countries CPIAs

3.23.13.13.0

3.5 3.53.6 3.6

2.5

3

3.5

4

1999 2000 2001 2002

Ove

rall

CP

IA R

atin

g

SSA

Non SSA

CPIA Trends, by cluster

3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3

3.73.9

3.83.7

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1999 2000 2001 2002

CP

IA E

cono

mic

Man

ag.

Non-SSA

SSA

3.6

3.33.23.13.1

3.63.53.5

2.5

3

3.5

4

1999 2000 2001 2002

CPI

A S

truc

utre

pol

icie

s

SSA

Non-SSA

CPIA Trend, by cluster

3.12.9

3.5

3.7

2.5

3

3.5

4

1999 2000 2001 2002

CP

IA S

ocia

l inc

lusi

on Non-SSA

SSA

3.4

2.8

3.0

3.2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1999 2000 2001 2002

CP

IA P

ub

lic

sect

or

Non-SSA

SSA

SSA: Sub-Regional CPIA Trend

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Avera

ge C

PIA

rati

ng

East Africa

Central Africa

West Africa

Southern Africa

18

ASAFCountry Policy &

Institutional Assessment (CPIA)

20 indicatorsin 4 groups

Economic Management Social Inclusion/Equity Structural Policy Public Sector Mgmnt

What does it measure?

**Angola **Burundi Central Afr. Rep.Comoros **Congo, DR.**Congo, RepEquatorial Guinea*Gabon **Guinea-BissauNigeria Sao Tome & Pr.*Seychelles **Sierra LeoneSudan *Swaziland Togo Zimbabwe

Benin Cameroon Chad Cote d‘Ivoire**Eritrea Ethiopia The GambiaGuinea Kenya Lesotho Madagascar MalawiMozambique Niger Zambia

*Botswana Burkina FasoCape Verde Ghana MaliMauritania *Mauritius *Namibia Rwanda Senegal *South AfricaTanzaniaUganda

Middle third Top thirdWhat are current scores?

Bottom third

*IBRD **Post-conflict

How do CPIA Ratings Compare?

WB vs. AfDB, all countries

y = 0.7x + 0.7

R2 = 0.8

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

2002 AfDB CPIA

2002 W

B C

PIA

Correlation coefficient = 0.8745o line

How do Ratings Compare?CPIA vs. Kaufman governance, IDA countries

For Non-SSA IDA countries

y = 0.73x + 3.65R2 = 0.38

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-3 -2 -1 0 1

Average KK. Governance indicators, 2002

2002

CPI

A

For SSA IDA Countries

y = 0.62x + 3.52R2 = 0.44

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0

Average KK governance indicators, 2002

2002

CPI

A

How do Ratings Compare?CPIA vs. Economic Freedom, IDA countries

For Non-SSA IDA Countries

y = -0.32x + 4.39R2 = 0.13

11.5

2

2.53

3.54

4.55

1 2 3 4 5

2002 EFI

2002

CPI

A

For SSA IDA Countries

y = -0.77x + 5.84R2 = 0.31

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

2002 EFI

2002

CPI

A

How do Ratings Compare?CPIA vs. HDI Ranking, IDA countries

For Non-SSA IDA Countries

y = -0.57x + 4.15R2 = 0.23

1

2

3

4

1 2 3 4 5

2000 CPIA ratings

HD

I (no

rmal

ized

by

a fa

ctor

of 4

9)

For SSA IDA Countries

y = -0.09x + 3.37R2 = 0.02

1

2

3

4

1 2 3 4 5

2000 CPIA ratings

HDI (

norm

aliz

ed b

y a

fact

or o

f 49)

CPIA and Policy Dialog

Increasing transparency: letter grades for IDA countries

Instrument for policy dialog with clients: how to move up the spectrum– Blend with Outcome Indicators

CAS formulation role Support by benchmarking in key areas

Related Benchmarking Assessments

Public budget and financial management: transparency, expenditure tracking (HIPC), SAIs

Service delivery: education, WSS, health Investment Climate Statistics

The End