policy scenarios for a level playing field: syd-probio model · (p olicy/de ci si on ma king ) c o...

www.STAR-ProBio.eu Funded by the EU H2020 Programme

Sustainability Transition Assessment and Research of Bio-based Products

Grant Agreement Number 727740

Policy scenarios for a level playing field: SyD-ProBio Model

STAR-ProBio Final Workshop, 28 April 2020

Deniz Koca (SEPA & Lund University)

Hördur Haraldsson (SEPA) BIOECONOMY GRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOOL

1


Layout

Background▪ Objective of Task 9.5

▪ Why system dynamics modelling?

▪ What is SyD-ProBio?

Methodology for the model development

SyD-ProBio Model demonstration – its structure and user interface

Conclusions

2

http://www.star-probio.eu/


Introduction – Objective of Task 9.5

Task 9.5 - Policy analysis for the creation of a level playing field – of STAR-ProBio project aims at developing a system dynamics model for the assessment of the effectiveness of policy actions, and the creation of a level playing field for the bio-based products against fossil-based products.

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Introduction (2)– Objective of Task 9.5

To fulfil the objective of Task 9.5, we:

developed SyD-ProBio model as a final outcome of the system dynamics modelling work within the Task 9.5;

analysed current and potential future policies for developing explorative scenarios that can be tested by the SyD-ProBio model;

demonstrated the use of SyD-ProBio model as a decision support tool by simulating two explorative alternative future policy scenarios (BAU and ALT) and by assessing the model results.

4



Why SyD-ProBio Model (1) - ?

A vast array of policy instruments may affect the market uptake of bio-based products, as well as the key dynamics across value chains of bio-based industries

The policy arena for bio-based products encompasses a wide range of policy areas at global, EU and national level, which yet result in a complex, fragmented, uncoherent policy framework of action.

Difficulties around agreeing on new legal frameworks. Formulating new policies and governmental measures add more complexity to the current situation.

Consequently, radical policies necessary for a sustainable bioeconomyimply a strong need for cross sectoral collaboration and inter/trans-disciplinary research adopting systems thinking approach.

5



What is SyD-ProBio?

SyD-ProBio Model is intended to serve as a decision support tool for a comprehensive understanding of key dynamics and conditions in the complex biobased polymer sector from many different aspects

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Methodology – for model development

Conceptual modelling and systems analysis ▪ A series of system science based and stakeholder participatory group

modelling workshops

▪ Mutual learning, sharing knowledge and experience

System dynamics modelling and integrated scenario analysis▪ SyD-ProBio is a system dynamics model developed by using STELLA®

software by ISEE systems.

+

+

processing &use of feedstock for bio-polymers

+

total bioplasticproducts in the

market

+

bioplastic productsreaching end of life

-

+

total bioplasticwaste

reuse ofbioplastic waste

+

+

recycling ofbioplastic

waste+

composting of bioplastic waste

+

-

-

-

+

+

Note: This Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) is a preliminary conceptual framework for the modelling/policy analysis work to be performed in STAR-Probio project (WP9 Task 9.5b)

The work is in progress and this CLD is only for internal use.

Deniz Koca, Lund University & Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, SwedenHördur Haraldsson, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, SwedenPiergiuseppe Morone, Unitelma-Sapienza University of Rome, ItalyValentina Tartiu, Unitelma-Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

2019011

C stored in crops

material

substitution

Innovative

business

models

+

Innovation in

technology

Innovation in

product design/

development

Crop onfields

harvesting

+

-

+

Innovation in

institution/

organisation/

industry

need for action

(policy/decision

making)CO2 concentrations

in the atmosphere

+

CO2 emissions

from oil

production

+

Innovation in

service design/

development

+

++

+

+

investment

+

R&D

knowledge &

data banking &

decision

support tools to

synthesise the

data

value added

smart

bioplastic

products (and

services)

+

plantation+

-

circular

economy

principles (e.g

cascading)

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

public

procurement of

bio based

products and

services

+

societal

acceptance of

(demand for)

biobased

products

+

market

penetration

+

+

+

+revenues

+

+

+

+

+

C stored inwaste

+

-

+

+

total availablebiomass feedstock

C stored inharvested

crop

+

+

-

+

processing &use of feedstock in other sectors

-

+

-

C stored inproducts

+

-

+

use of oil to produce synthetic polymer

-

-

+

+

CO2 emissions

from end of life

span

-+

+employment

CROP GROWTH

CARBON CAPTURE

IN CROPS AND

BIOPLASTICS

USE OF OIL FOR

PLASTIC

POLICY MIXES

BIOBASED PRODUCT

DEVELOPMENT &

MARKET PENETRATION

PhysicalpartYieldincrease,integratedproductionsystem,productiononunusedland,useofwasteandresiduestreams,increaseinconversionef7iciency,increaseinby-productef7iciency,soilerosion,

Economicalpartsupplydemandfunction,effectsofchangesinprice

USE OF CROP FOR

OTHER PURPOSES

+/-

+

total plasticproducts

in the market

+

plastic productsreaching end of life

-

+

total plasticwaste

reuse of plastic waste

+

recycling ofplastic waste+

incineration ofplastic waste

+

-

-

-

+

raw material,nutrition

+

USE OF CROP FOR

BIOPLASTICS

plastic ending up

in ecosystems

+

+

+

legislations+

+

certification

schemes

labels

+

+

+

+

+

use of recycledraw material

-

-amount of produced oilfor synthetic polymer

production

+

-

residues on field

+

+

+

+

+

+

waste /side streamsfrom other

sectors

+

health issues+

+

+

FOREST

MARINE

WASTE

SIDE STREAMS

Aim 1. Policyoptions· Toreducefossilebasedproducts

· Tomakebioproducts(biofuel)more

compatible

2. Policyoptions· Formakingsurethatthesebioproductsare

sustainable· Topromotethemarketuptakeof

sustainablebioproducts

Policytype Caponcarbonemissiononproducts· CO2taxationonproducts(E)

· Environmental&quality(materialfunction)

restrictions(e.g.minthinknessoffossilebasedmulchingfilm,sulphurcontentindiesel)(C)

· Increasedshareofbioproductsviaquata(C)

· Subsidies(E)

· GrantforR&Dforbioproducts(E)

· Informativepolicies(I)

Introductionofsustainabilitycriteria· Subsidiesfulfillingthesustainabilitycriteria

· Taxexemptiononproductsthatfulfill

sustainabilitycriteria

Notes X%reductioninemissionsGlobalwarmingpotentialindicator

Potentialprinciplesare:· Biobasedcontent

· Materialuseefficiency(EoL,recyclability,

circularity)· ILUCrisk

Newrenewableenergydirectivesetsprinciplesforbiofuel

???

SydILUC MODEL

AUTOMOTIVE etc

Market share of sustainable

bio-based polymer

Primary biomass production

Bio-based polymer production

Product operational life time

Waste bio-based polymer

ReuseRecyclingComposting

Incineration

landfill

open trash

export

Policy measures and

instruments on primary

biomass production

Policy measures and

instruments on recycled

feedstock

Policy measures and

instruments on bio-based

polymer production

Policy measures and

instruments on the market

share of sustainable bio-

based polymer

Policy measures

and instruments on

operational life time

of products from

bio-based polymer

Policy measures and

instruments on end of life

options

Market share of oil-based polymer

Oil productionOil-based polymer

productionProduct operational life

time

Waste oil-based polymer

ReuseRecycling

Incineration

landfill

open trash

export

Policy measures and

instruments on oil

production

Policy measures and

instruments on oil-based

polymer production

Policy measures and


share of oil-based polymer

Policy measures

and instruments on


of products from

oil-based polymer

Policy measures and


options

PACKAGING


bio-based polymer






Incineration

landfill

open trash

export

Policy measures and


biomass production

Policy measures and


feedstock

Policy measures and


polymer production

Policy measures and



based polymer

Policy measures

and instruments on


of products from

bio-based polymer

Policy measures and


options




time


ReuseRecycling

Incineration

landfill

open trash

export

Policy measures and

instruments on oil

production

Policy measures and


polymer production

Policy measures and



Policy measures

and instruments on


of products from

oil-based polymer

Policy measures and


options

AGRICULTURE


bio-based polymer






Incineration

landfill

open trash

export

Policy measures and


biomass production

Policy measures and


feedstock

Policy measures and


polymer production

Policy measures and



based polymer

Policy measures

and instruments on


of products from

bio-based polymer

Policy measures and


options




time


ReuseRecycling

Incineration

landfill

open trash

export

Policy measures and

instruments on oil

production

Policy measures and


polymer production

Policy measures and



Policy measures

and instruments on


of products from

oil-based polymer

Policy measures and


options

7



Model Structure & User Interface

SyD-ProBio model

8


../../../SyD_ProBio_v007_200330_02.stmx


Conclusions and future work (1)SyD-ProBio Model, along with a policy scenarios analysis, can provide insights with respect to, e.g.:▪ which existing policies and how these policies affect the future of European

bio-based products market uptake;

▪ what conditions must be met to develop and implement effective policy mixes supporting the creation of a level playing field for bio-based products.

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Conclusions and future work (2)Model development is an ongoing process

Due to the very complex structure of the polymer sector (several different biopolymers, which can potentially substitute different oil-based polymers), in the current version of SyD-ProBio we limited our modelling work with a focus on market uptake of polylactic acid (PLA) by substituting polypropylene (PP).

With its modular structure, however, it is relatively easy to extend and/or modify the model by implementing new modules or changing existing ones, based on the availability of input data and which policy options to be tested.

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Acknowledgements

This project is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and innovation action under grantagreement No 727740 with the Research Executive Agency (REA) - European Commission. Duration: 36months (May 2017 – April 2020).Work Programme BB-01-2016: Sustainability schemes for the bio-based economy

Contact

Deniz Koca▪ [email protected]

www.star-probio.eu

▪ Hördur Haraldsson (SEPA)

▪ Valentina Elana Tartiu (UnitelmaSapienza)

▪ Fabian Schipfer (Unitelma Sapienza)

▪ Piergiuseppe Morone (UnitelmaSapienza)

BIOECONOMY GRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOOL


mailto:[email protected]

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